Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing short-term pressure from bears, leading to a decline in prices, particularly after breaking below the October high of $4381.44, which may result in significant losses for aggressive traders who anticipated a breakout [1] Group 1: Market Trends - In the long-term bullish context, gold prices are expected to undergo several months of consolidation before resuming an upward trend, despite recording a substantial annual increase of approximately 65% in 2025, marking the best annual performance in over 40 years [2] - The market is currently in a correction phase after a steady rise throughout the year, with prices accelerating towards the end of the year before stabilizing [2] Group 2: Future Outlook - For 2026, fundamental factors supporting gold prices are anticipated to regain momentum, including the actual impact of Federal Reserve rate cuts, expectations of new monetary easing, ongoing geopolitical risks, central bank gold purchases, and inflows into gold ETFs [2] - Although rate cut expectations provide support, the market widely recognizes that gold is in a bull market, which may hinder the ability to replicate last year's remarkable price increases [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have also fallen below the short-term 50% Fibonacci retracement level, transforming the $4350.27-$4381.44 range into a resistance zone, with traders targeting the mid-term 50% retracement level of $4211.60 and the 50-day moving average at $4174.88 as a support area [3] - The 50-day moving average is crucial as it has guided gold prices higher since mid-August; a significant drop below this average could shift market sentiment from "extremely bullish" to "moderately bullish" [3]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market, particularly gold, has experienced a significant bull market in 2025, with gold prices achieving a remarkable 64% increase, the highest annual gain in nearly 46 years. However, the outlook for 2026 suggests potential volatility and challenges due to increased short-selling and profit-taking pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices closed at $4318.67 per ounce at the end of 2025, with a notable drop of 0.6% on the last trading day [1]. - Silver prices fell by 6.7% to $71.36, while platinum and palladium also saw significant declines of 8.7% and other pressures [1]. - The overall strong performance of precious metals in 2025 was driven by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and substantial inflows into ETFs [1][2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold could reach $5000 per ounce and silver may challenge $100 in 2026, supported by ongoing structural supply shortages and robust industrial demand [1]. - The expectation of 2-3 interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 could sustain the upward trend in gold prices, although potential selling pressure from retail investors and reduced central bank purchases could pose challenges [2]. - The market is currently in a correction phase, which is seen as a healthy adjustment before potential further gains in 2026 [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Short-term technical indicators for gold show a downward trend, with significant support around the $4300-$4280 range and resistance at $4375-$4380 [3][5]. - The market is advised to adopt a cautious approach, focusing on buying on dips while being aware of potential selling pressures [5].

Group 1: Oil Market - Crude oil recorded its largest annual decline since 2020, driven by geopolitical risks and rising global supply, with a projected oversupply expected to continue affecting prices into 2026 [2][8] - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell by 0.9%, settling at $57.42 per barrel, marking a 20% decline for the year [2][8] - Analysts predict that oil prices will fluctuate between $50 and $70, with uncertainties surrounding supply from Venezuela and Russia providing some price support [2][8] Group 2: Base Metals - Copper prices experienced their largest annual increase since 2009, rising by 42% year-to-date on the London Metal Exchange (LME), driven by strong demand for electrification and recent supply tightness [3][9] - The surge in copper prices outperformed other industrial metals in the market [3][9] Group 3: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fell on the last trading day of 2025 but are still on track to achieve their largest annual gains in over 40 years, attributed to strong demand for safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical risks and Federal Reserve rate cuts [5][11] - Spot gold hovered around $4,320 per ounce, while silver dipped towards $71 per ounce, with significant market volatility prompting increased margin requirements for futures [5][11] - Both metals are set for their best annual performance since 1979, driven by inflation concerns and rising debt burdens in developed economies [5][11]

周三，国际油价小幅走低，使2025年全年跌幅超过18%。尽管这一年充斥着战争、更高关税、OPEC+增 产以及对俄罗斯、伊朗和委内瑞拉的制裁，但市场对供应过剩的预期仍在不断升温。 纽约商品交易所2月交割的西得州中质原油（WTI）合约价格下跌0.53美元，跌幅为0.91%，收于每桶 57.42美元。 布伦特原油合约下跌0.48美元，跌幅为0.78%，收于每桶60.85美元。 至此，布伦特原油合约价格已下跌逾18%，是自2020年以来最严重的年度百分比跌幅，并且是连续第三 年收跌——创下史上最长连跌纪录。美国西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）则预计将录得接近20%的年度跌 幅。 法国巴黎银行（BNP Paribas）大宗商品分析师杰森·英（Jason Ying）预计，布伦特原油价格将在2026年 第一季度下探至每桶55美元，随后随着供应增长趋于正常、需求保持平稳，回升至每桶60美元左右。 随后，乌克兰无人机袭击俄罗斯基础设施，并干扰哈萨克斯坦石油出口，进一步加剧了俄乌战争对能源 市场的冲击。 6月持续12天的伊朗-以色列冲突，通过扰乱全球海运石油要道霍尔木兹海峡的航运，再度推高了油价。 然而，近期OPEC+加速增产，加之 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing its largest annual decline since 2020, with a year-to-date drop of 18% due to oversupply and geopolitical risks, and forecasts indicate that supply-demand imbalances will worsen by 2026 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Global oil supply is expected to exceed demand significantly, with projections indicating a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day by 2025, which will worsen in the following year [5]. - OPEC+ has shifted from a price-supporting strategy to increasing production to capture market share, contributing to market volatility [5]. - The U.S. shale oil production has reached historical highs, further adding to the supply, while countries like Brazil and Guyana have also increased their output [5]. Group 2: Price Trends and Economic Impact - Oil prices are anticipated to fluctuate between $50 and $70, influenced by strong production from non-OPEC countries and potential risks related to Venezuela and Russia [2][5]. - The decline in oil prices is helping to alleviate inflationary pressures, providing support for central banks in their efforts to control rising prices [2][5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions remain a critical factor influencing market outlook, with the U.S. pushing for an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which could alleviate the backlog of Russian oil at sea [6]. - The U.S. is also detaining tankers carrying Venezuelan oil, leading to a reduction in Venezuela's production [6]. - Trump's recent comments regarding potential actions against Iran's nuclear program have previously caused oil prices to spike, indicating the sensitivity of the market to geopolitical developments [3][6].

黄金在周三欧洲早盘时段延续涨势，突破每盎司4350美元。 今年以来金价已累计上涨约65%，有望创下自1979年以来最大年度涨幅。市场预期美联储可能在2026年进一步降息，这被视为支撑金价的主要因素。利率下 降通常会降低持有黄金的机会成本，从而对这类无息资产构成利好。 地缘政治风险也为黄金提供了一定支撑。持续存在的以色列-伊朗冲突以及美国与委内瑞拉之间的紧张关系，可能促使部分资金流向黄金等传统避险资产。 不过，黄金进一步上涨的空间可能受到部分因素限制。 阻力方面，首个关键水平位于布林带上轨4520美元附近，若突破则可能进一步上探4550美元前期高点及4600美元心理关口。支撑方面，4300-4305美元区域 构成初步防守，若失守则可能向下测试4271美元附近的前期低点。 从市场动态来看，美联储在近期会议上决定降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%-3.75%。会议纪要显示，多数官员认为只要通胀持续回 落，进一步降息是合适的，但在降息时机和幅度上仍存在分歧。根据CME FedWatch工具，1月降息的概率目前小幅回落至约15%。 从技术分析角度看，黄金日线图显示价格仍处于100日指数移动均线上方， ...

前言：富格林凭借雄厚企业实力及精进优质服务，获颁香港黄金交易所A1特级行员（100号），协助广大投资者妥善曝光处置市面欺诈套路乱 象，合理布局把握行情盈利之机。周二（12月30日），黄金与白银在周一大幅下挫后强势反弹，显示避险资金重新入场。随着年末地缘政治风 险再度升温，市场避险情绪升高，推动贵金属买盘回流，缓解了市场对贵金属短线"见顶"风险的担忧。投资者可在线联络在线客服转接富格林 专家顾问沟通交流，寻求曝光处置欺诈套路妥善方案，善用精准策略建议兑现盈利预期。 富格林凭借雄厚企业实力及精进优质服务，获颁香港黄金交易所A1特级行员（100号），协助广大投资者妥善曝光处置市面欺诈套路乱象，合 理布局把握行情盈利之机。周二（12月30日）现货黄金价格一度强劲反弹，虽然最终涨幅收窄，但纵观全年黄金价格已累计上涨66%，有望成 为自1979年以来表现最为亮眼的一年。这一现象不仅源于美联储的货币政策调整，还受到央行购金、资金流入以及国际热点事件的综合影响。 投资者可在线联络在线客服转接富格林专家顾问沟通交流，寻求曝光处置欺诈套路妥善方案，善用精准策略建议兑现盈利预期。 美联储的货币政策一直是影响黄金价格的核心变量，而周 ...

基本面： ---趋势判断---- 美元和美国国债收益率的走势，直接影响了黄金的定价机制。周二，美元指数上涨0.19%至98.19，在美联储会议记录公布后保持涨势。尽管全年美元下跌近 10%，创下2017年以来最差年度表现，但年末的反弹仍对黄金构成了压力。美联储政策方向不明朗，导致美元及其他货币汇率波动加大，市场需转向经济数 据寻求线索。与此同时，美国债市收益率小幅波动，10年期公债收益率上涨1.2个基点至4.127%，30年期收益率上涨0.4个基点至4.808%。这些上涨削弱了黄 金的吸引力，因为更高的收益率提升了持有债券的回报。 周二的数据显示，美国10月房价同比涨幅为逾13年来最慢，这被视为住房市场可负担性改善的迹象，但也暗示经济放缓可能推动美联储进一步宽松。两 年/10年期公债收益率差报67个基点，市场预计1月美联储降息概率仅为16.1%。总体而言，美元和收益率的年末涨势虽限制了黄金反弹，但全年美元疲软和 利差缩小，仍是黄金飙升的幕后推手。 白银市场的强劲表现：工业需求爆发，涨幅超黄金成焦点作为黄金的"兄弟金属"，白银在2025年的表现同样抢眼。周二，白银一度上涨8%至78.03美元/盎 司，收报76. ...

基本面： 周三（12月31日）亚盘时段，现货黄金震荡收窄并继续受限承压，目前暂交投于4352美元附近。尽管周二（12月30日）现货黄金价格一度强劲反弹，但最终 涨幅收窄，这反映出市场对避险资产的持续需求与美元走强之间的拉锯。然而，纵观全年，黄金价格已累计上涨66%，有望成为自1979年以来表现最为亮眼 的一年。这一现象不仅源于美联储的货币政策调整，还受到央行购金、资金流入以及国际热点事件的综合影响。 进入2025年末，黄金市场经历了剧烈的过山车行情。周一，现货黄金从上周五创下的历史高点4549.71美元/盎司大幅回落，最低触及4303美元附近，创下自 10月21日以来的最大单日百分比跌幅。这一回落主要源于获利了结的压力，投资者在连续上涨后选择锁定利润，导致市场短期调整。然而，这种下跌迅速吸 引了逢低买盘的介入，推动黄金在周二展开强劲反弹。现货黄金一度上涨1.64%，触及4404美元/盎司附近，显示出市场对黄金避险属性的持续认可。避险买 盘的涌入，进一步强化了这一反弹势头，因为投资者重新关注全球地缘政治和经济风险，将黄金视为安全的港湾。 美元和美国国债收益率的走势，直接影响了黄金的定价机制。周二，美元指数上涨0 ...

【要闻速递】 【最新纸白银行情解析】 年末，俄罗斯指责乌克兰试图袭击总统普京的官邸，并誓言报复，而乌克兰则称这一指控毫无根据。乌 克兰总统泽连斯基在与媒体交流中表示，基辅正在与华盛顿讨论美军驻扎乌克兰的可能性，作为安全保 障的一部分，并强调所谓普京官邸袭击为"伪造"。 与此同时，波兰总理图斯克乐观表示，得益于美国的安全保证，乌克兰可能在数周内实现和平，尽管成 功远未确定。他甚至暗示美军可能被派往乌克兰和俄罗斯之间的接触线，这虽未得到白宫确认，但已引 发市场对冲突升级的担忧。 Peter Grant在评论中指出，市场对俄乌和平协议仍持怀疑态度，更广泛的地缘政治风险指标仍在升高。 今日周三(12月31日)亚盘时段，纸白银目前交投于16.910一线下方，今日开盘于17.099元/克，截至发 稿，纸白银暂报16.923元/克，下跌1.12%，最高触及17.544元/克，最低下探16.694元/克，目前来看，纸 白银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 日图来看，纸白银价格从高位震荡下跌，目前处于负值区间，一小时DMI显示处于下跌轨道中，MACD 向零线倾斜，表明目前价格走弱，纸白银走势下方关注15.50-16.50支撑，上方关注1 ...