Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan has decided to postpone interest rate hikes, maintaining the benchmark rate at approximately 0.5%, despite prior expectations of a potential increase to combat unexpected inflation [1] Monetary Policy Decision - The monetary policy meeting concluded with a vote of 7 in favor and 2 against maintaining the current interest rate, marking the sixth consecutive meeting where the rate remains unchanged [1] - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted significant uncertainties in overseas economic and price trends due to high tariffs from the U.S., which will be closely monitored for their impact on Japan's domestic economy [1] Economic Forecast - The Bank of Japan has slightly raised its GDP growth forecast for fiscal year 2025 from 0.6% to 0.7% [1]

21世纪经济报道记者吴斌超级央行周成为全球市场关注焦点。当地时间10月29日，美联储降息25个基 点，但美联储主席鲍威尔提醒12月份再度降息"远未成定局"。加拿大央行也将利率下调25个基点，但暗 示本轮降息周期接近尾声。10月30日，日本央行和欧洲央行维持利率不变。 最后，鲍威尔发布会上表态"12月降息远未成定局"实际上是一种"兜底"行为，其核心目的在于防止市场 将美联储降息和结束缩表的这种行为解读为美联储将重启激进降息通道，给市场传达美联储仍将根据一 次次的数据决定下一步货币政策的清晰立场。 在工银国际首席经济学家程实看来，货币政策在数据真空与需求减弱的双重约束下，宽松取向实际上更 具合理性，美联储在本次议息会议中降息，不仅符合市场预期，也体现了其对现实约束的主动应对。 四家央行24小时内密集公布利率决议的情况相当罕见。道琼斯市场数据团队分析显示，这至少是自2021 年初以来，四家央行决策者首次在"同一天"商讨利率问题。尽管四家央行每年各举行八次货币政策会 议，但具体的日期往往各不相同，两家央行会议时间重叠的情况相对常见。 面对不同的经济现状和通胀形势，各个地区有不同的优先事项，这意味着各大央行不太可能采取 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is the simultaneous meetings of major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan, highlighting the rarity of such coordinated discussions on interest rates since early 2021 [1][12] - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% marks the second consecutive rate cut of the year, but internal disagreements among board members have become apparent [3][4] - The contrasting views within the Federal Reserve, with one member advocating for a larger cut to mitigate economic risks and another opposing any change to control inflation, reflect the divided signals in the U.S. economy [5][6] Group 2 - Other central banks have clearer policy focuses compared to the Federal Reserve, with the Bank of Canada facing strong employment data against persistent inflation, while the European Central Bank is likely to maintain its current stance due to stubborn service sector inflation [8][10] - The Bank of Japan's policy direction is constrained by political pressures, delaying expectations for interest rate hikes [10][12] - The divergence in central bank policies underscores the lack of synchronized economic recovery globally, with the Federal Reserve's decisions having significant spillover effects on other economies, particularly emerging markets [12][15] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and the decision to end its balance sheet reduction are significant shifts in policy focus, moving from price control to stabilizing liquidity in the financial system [12][14] - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve reveal deeper contradictions in policy-making, with differing views on the economic outlook and inflation risks influencing future decisions [14][21] - Market reactions to the Federal Reserve's statements indicate a shift in expectations regarding future rate cuts, with a notable decrease in the probability of a December rate cut following the Chair's comments [14][23] Group 4 - The article suggests that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts may create a more accommodating external environment for other economies, particularly benefiting emerging markets and potentially easing pressures on the Chinese yuan [17][19] - The ongoing adjustments in global asset allocation are evident, with market volatility reflecting structural changes in response to the Federal Reserve's actions [19][23] - The current state of the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle is characterized as entering an observation phase, with uncertainty surrounding future decisions becoming more pronounced [23]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a bullish trend following the announcement by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to resume government bond trading operations, which is seen as a pivotal moment for the market [1][4]. Market Reaction - After the PBOC's announcement on October 27, bond yields fell across the board, with institutions actively purchasing bonds, particularly from funds and brokerages, while banks and insurance companies sold [3][7]. - By October 30, the market continued to show a "bullish" trend, although the rate of yield decline had narrowed [3][7]. Policy Background - The PBOC's resumption of bond trading is part of its open market operations aimed at adjusting market liquidity and enhancing the financial function of government bonds [4][5]. - The previous suspension of these operations was due to an imbalance in bond market supply and demand and accumulated market risks [5][6]. Future Expectations - The resumption of bond trading is expected to help coordinate with fiscal policy and mitigate potential market supply shocks from increased local government bond issuance in the fourth quarter and early next year [6][12]. - Analysts anticipate that the PBOC will optimize its bond trading operations to minimize market impact, focusing on short-term bonds while maintaining a stable liquidity environment [10][12]. Market Dynamics - The current market sentiment is cautious, with some institutions adopting a wait-and-see approach due to the unpredictable nature of the market [11][12]. - The focus is shifting towards practical issues such as the timing and method of the PBOC's bond purchases, with expectations of a gradual approach rather than aggressive buying [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan has decided to postpone interest rate hikes, maintaining the benchmark rate at approximately 0.5%, despite prior expectations of a potential increase to combat unexpected inflation [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decision - The monetary policy meeting concluded with a vote of 7 in favor and 2 against maintaining the current interest rate, marking the sixth consecutive meeting where rates remain unchanged [1]. - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that uncertainties in the overseas economy and price trends, influenced by high U.S. tariffs, are significant factors in their decision-making process [1]. Group 2: Economic Forecast - The Bank of Japan has slightly raised its forecast for Japan's real GDP growth rate for the fiscal year 2025, from 0.6% predicted in July to 0.7% currently [1].

Gold Market - The gold market shows signs of a potential short-term rebound after a brief decline, with the overall upward trend remaining intact despite short-term disruptions from Fed Chair Powell's speech [1] - The resolution of the tariff conflict between the US and China, following a meeting between their leaders, suggests that tariff impacts on the market are no longer a concern [1] - Increased global security risks are anticipated due to Trump's announcement to resume nuclear tests, which may lead to a new arms race, thus elevating market risk aversion and driving funds into gold [1] - Technically, gold has formed a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart, indicating a potential stop to the decline, with support at $3951 and resistance at $4015 [1] Oil Market - The oil market remains weak, with a decline in US crude oil inventories failing to reverse the downward trend in oil prices, reflecting low market confidence [2] - For the week ending October 24, API crude oil inventories fell by 4.02 million barrels, and EIA inventories dropped by 6.858 million barrels, significantly exceeding market expectations [2] - Despite a preliminary trade agreement between the US and China alleviating concerns over demand shrinkage, oil prices did not respond positively, indicating a focus on actual market reactions [2] - Technically, oil prices are under pressure, with resistance at $60.50 despite a small daily gain [2] US Dollar Index - The US dollar index experienced a short-term spike due to hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell but subsequently retreated, maintaining a bearish technical outlook [3] - The Fed's recent rate cut of 25 basis points was accompanied by Powell's hawkish stance, creating uncertainty about future monetary policy direction [3] - The dollar index is facing significant resistance from long-term moving averages, with a potential short-term rebound focus [4] Japanese Market - The Nikkei 225 index has shown a steady upward trend, supported by moving averages, although caution is advised regarding potential market peaks [5] - Short-term corrections are likely, with support at 51150 [5] Copper Market - The copper market has seen a slight daily gain, but prices are approaching previous highs, indicating potential resistance [6] - A short-term adjustment is expected, with support at $5.10 [6] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second consecutive rate cut, although Powell downplayed the likelihood of further cuts in December [7] - The Fed announced the end of its balance sheet reduction program effective December 1, which may lead to increased liquidity in the banking system [8] - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% for the sixth consecutive meeting [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, aligning with market expectations, while indicating that future rate hikes will depend on economic data rather than a predetermined schedule [1] Monetary Policy Decisions - The BOJ's decision was passed with a vote of 7 in favor and 2 against, with dissenting members advocating for a 25 basis point increase [1] - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the Japanese economy is experiencing a moderate recovery but still shows signs of weakness, particularly due to high uncertainty in overseas trade policies [1][2] External Pressures and Policy Independence - Ueda highlighted the potential impact of U.S. trade policies on the Japanese economy, noting that tariff costs could be passed on to consumers, affecting inflation and consumption [2] - Ueda reaffirmed that monetary policy is not influenced by political situations and emphasized the importance of close cooperation with the government [2] Inflation and Wage Dynamics - Japan's inflation has exceeded the BOJ's 2% target for 41 consecutive months, driven mainly by temporary factors affecting food prices [3] - The upcoming spring wage negotiations in 2025 will be crucial for assessing the sustainability of consumption and inflation, particularly in the automotive sector [3] Market Expectations and Future Rate Hikes - Despite maintaining the current interest rate, the BOJ reiterated its policy path, indicating potential rate increases if economic and price trends align with expectations [3][4] - Market analysts view the December meeting as a possible window for a rate hike, with expectations of gradual action from the BOJ in the coming year [3][4] Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination - New Prime Minister Hamada is seen as a supporter of "Abenomics," advocating for loose monetary policy and large-scale fiscal spending, while emphasizing the need for coordination between the BOJ and the government [4][5] - There is an inherent tension between fiscal expansion plans and the international demand for a stronger yen, with current exchange rates significantly lower than perceived fair value [5]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's decision to maintain its policy interest rate has reinforced market expectations for a cautious approach to monetary tightening under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's leadership [1][2] - The outcome of the monetary policy meeting, with only two board members supporting a rate hike, is interpreted as a dovish signal, leading to a depreciation of the yen and support for Japanese government bonds [1][3] - Analysts believe that the likelihood of a rate hike before 2026 is low, given the Bank of Japan's stable inflation forecasts and voting results [1] Group 2 - Strategists from Standard Chartered and ANZ Bank emphasize that the Bank of Japan's cautious stance on monetary policy normalization may keep the yen below the 150 level against the dollar [2] - The market is closely watching for signals from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, particularly regarding communication with the Kishida government, which leans towards a dovish monetary policy [2] - The recent policy statement closely resembles the previous one, leading to potential disappointment among yen bulls regarding Ueda's future comments [2][3] Group 3 - The decision by the Bank of Japan aligns with market expectations for a dovish monetary policy under Kishida, potentially providing breathing room for the Japanese stock market [3] - Despite the decision slightly exceeding expectations, the support for a low-interest-rate environment continues to pressure the yen, resulting in a slight rebound of the dollar against the yen [3] - The limited opposition to maintaining the current rate, with only two members dissenting, suggests that the Bank of Japan may resume rate hikes in the coming months [3]

Core Views - The effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies is contingent upon their ability to promote stable economic growth, but they often serve as tools rather than solutions when deep structural contradictions arise in the economy [2][7] - Government debt management is akin to operating a "super company," where the sustainability of debt relies on the expectation of future income, primarily through tax revenues [2][4] Government Debt and Expenditure - Government debt and expenditure must be built on a durable and stable system, which is essential for both corporate prosperity and government sustainability [4] - Fiscal spending should accurately address the core contradictions and pain points of the economy to yield potential economic returns and growth; misallocation of fiscal funds can erode government competitiveness and future revenue-generating capacity [4][8] Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Monetary and fiscal policies are merely means to alleviate pain during economic downturns and to temper overheating during upturns, but they do not resolve core contradictions [7][8] - High interest rates are often employed to control rapid economic expansion rather than directly causing a slowdown in growth; the key variables affecting growth are division, distribution, and leverage [7][8] Debt Sustainability - Low interest rates do not necessarily provide substantial benefits to fiscal debt; if fiscal debt loses market confidence, merely having low rates will not resolve credit crises [8] - The core issue is whether policies can promote sustainable growth, which in turn leads to long-term benefits for government departments and alleviates concerns about debt sustainability [8]

当地时间10月29日，美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间再次下调25个基点到3.75%至4.00%之间。这是美联储继 9月17日降息25个基点后再次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第五次降息。 最新利率决议显示，两位委员投下了反对票，凸显出美联储内部的分歧。其中，被视为"外部人"的斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）主张大幅降息 50个基点，而堪萨斯城联储主席施密德（Jeffrey Schmid）则倾向于维持利率不变。 值得注意的是，特朗普近日表示，或将在年底前公布接替现任美联储主席鲍威尔的人选。 在特朗普政府目前圈定的五位候选人中，也有两位是完全没有美联储工作经验的。一旦更多"外部人"加入，美联储的独立性将受到更大的挑 战，成为全球金融市场最大的风险敞口。回顾上世纪伯恩斯时代的历史，美联储独立性信任的崩塌，往往是黄金牛市的序曲。 鲍威尔释放"鹰派"信号，黄金先涨后降至4000美元以下 纽约州立大学布法罗分校政治学系助理教授科林·安德森（Collin Anderson）对每经记者分析称，"我认为美联储之后将采取两种截然不同的策 略。一种是维持现状，不作任何剧烈的调整，只是小幅地调 ...