Market Dynamics - The gold market experienced a dramatic drop, with prices plunging nearly $500 from a peak of $5,596 to around $5,100 before rebounding above $5,300, indicating extreme volatility and investor anxiety [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates was expected, but Chairman Powell's comments sparked a significant market reaction, with gold prices surpassing $5,500 and silver reaching $119, reflecting a disconnect between market sentiment and Fed communication [3][4] - Geopolitical risks have amplified gold's safe-haven appeal, contributing to a 25% increase in gold prices and over 55% for silver in the past year, indicating a shift beyond typical commodity bull markets [6] Investment Sentiment - Investors are increasingly focused on potential changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership by May 2026, with expectations that a more dovish successor could drive further investment in precious metals [4] - Current market conditions suggest that gold is becoming a key asset in portfolios, potentially replacing traditional bonds as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, with projections indicating that a rise in gold allocation could push prices to $8,000-$8,500 [7] Price Predictions - Major financial institutions like UBS have raised their gold price targets for 2026 to $6,200, with bullish scenarios suggesting prices could reach $7,200, further fueling market optimism [9] - However, analysts warn of market instability, citing extreme price fluctuations and the potential for a significant correction due to overcrowded positions among momentum traders [9][11] Technical Observations - The recent flash crash highlighted the market's fragility, as trading platforms experienced outages due to overwhelming order volumes during price swings, underscoring the concentrated nature of market participation [11] - The copper market shows contrasting dynamics, with strong demand driven by energy transition and electric vehicle adoption, yet high inventories challenge the bullish narrative [12] - In the aluminum market, supply constraints from China's production limits and shifting demand towards green technologies suggest a positive medium-term outlook, although short-term price sustainability remains debated [13] Overall Market Sentiment - The current market environment is characterized by significant divergence, with bullish forecasts from major banks juxtaposed against warnings of excessive positioning and volatility risks [13] - The Federal Reserve's efforts to maintain policy credibility have not fully reassured the market, and any new geopolitical developments could trigger rapid price movements [13]

Group 1 - International gold and silver prices experienced a significant drop on January 30, with gold prices falling below $4800 per ounce and silver prices dropping below $80 per ounce, marking the largest single-day declines in decades [1] - The decline in precious metal prices was attributed to multiple factors, including the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, who has criticized quantitative easing policies, and higher-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) data indicating rising inflation [1] - Analysts noted that the recent surge in gold and silver prices made a market correction inevitable, and while the sell-off was significant, ongoing geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties may prevent a prolonged downturn [1] Group 2 - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also adjusted in response to the falling gold prices, with brands like Chow Sang Sang reporting a decrease from 1708 RMB per gram to 1618 RMB per gram within two days [2][4] - Some gold brands have implemented return policies that include fees for returns, with reports of deductions up to 500 RMB for returns of gold products, reflecting the investment nature of gold [4][10] - Online platforms have varying return policies, with many not accepting returns for investment gold products and some charging a fee of 1%-5% for returns, which has led to consumer complaints about the lack of clear communication regarding these fees [6][8]

据美国《国会山报》报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间1月31日称，他预计自己提名的下任美联储主席凯文·沃什将轻松通过国会参议院的确认程序，并表示希 望沃什实施降息。 特朗普（左）和凯文·沃什。资料图 图自美媒 特朗普1月30日提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，这一提名还需获得参议院批准。沃什2006年加入美联储，是当时最年轻的美联储理事。在美 联储任职期间，沃什持鹰派货币政策立场，但近年转向支持特朗普的关税政策及加快降息立场。 《国会山报》提到，目前尚不清楚沃什能否获得足够支持以确认提名，因为特朗普政府对美联储的刑事调查以及削弱其独立性的威胁已激怒民主党人。据 悉，一些国会参议员正试图让美联储免受政治压力的影响。共和党籍联邦参议员汤姆·蒂利斯1月30日说，尽管沃什是合格的人选，但由于司法部正对鲍威尔 进行刑事调查，"他会反对确认任何美联储相关提名，包括美联储主席职位"。 《国会山报》称，特朗普对此表示，他愿等到蒂利斯卸任后再确认相关提名，"我的意思是，他（蒂利斯）将因为某些原因离开参议院，因为他要求的事情 没实现，所以这就是其中的原因之一"。 美联储现任主席鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束，但其美联储理 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report's industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Mid - term, long - term interest rates may be similar to the early 2021 period, oscillating at the peak, but there are still some constraints for a smooth short - term decline. In January, the 10Y Treasury yield initially reached 1.90% and then dropped to 1.81% at the end of the month, reaching the lower limit of the 1.8% - 1.9% oscillation range. Currently, the expectation of broad - based monetary policy is relatively insufficient, making it difficult to support the yield to break downward. In February, with the large - scale supply of local bonds, the 10Y Treasury yield may return to the central position of the oscillation range. Investment strategies suggest focusing on two structural opportunities: the allocation opportunities of 5Y policy - financial bonds and 3 - 5Y general - credit bonds due to the concentrated maturity of amortized - cost - method bond funds; and the opportunities for spread compression under the background of the central bank supporting reasonable and sufficient liquidity, such as the spread between 10Y China Development Bank bonds and 10Y Treasury bonds [1][24]. Summary by Directory 2 - Month Bond Market Outlook: Similarities and Differences between 2026 and 2021 - **Fundamentals**: In 2021, the credit cycle weakened and the real - estate market peaked and declined. In 2026, the credit cycle may decline moderately, and the real - estate market may still be at the bottom - grinding stage. In 2021, factors such as the "Three Red Lines" and "Two Concentration Limits on Mortgage Loans" in the real - estate industry and repeated outbreaks of the epidemic led to a contraction in real - estate financing, causing a rapid decline in the credit and real - estate cycles. In 2026, the real - estate market is still at the bottom - grinding stage during the transformation of old and new driving forces, and the credit cycle may decline relatively moderately with the support of monetary and fiscal policies [1][8]. - **Fiscal Policy and Local Bond Supply**: After the withdrawal of extraordinary policies, the broad - based deficit ratio may decline marginally. Compared with 2021, the current local bond supply is front - loaded and has a longer term. In 2021, fiscal efforts were back - loaded and the term was shortened, while in 2026, fiscal policy continues to be "actively front - loaded" with a relatively long - term [12]. - **Monetary Policy and Capital Market**: In both 2021 and 2026, the expectation of broad - based monetary aggregate policies declined. However, in early 2026, liquidity was relatively abundant, while in early 2021, the capital market was tight. In 2021, there was no interest - rate cut throughout the year, and the policy intensity weakened significantly compared with 2020. In early 2026, there was a 25BP structural interest - rate cut and an over - amount renewal of MLF to provide liquidity support [18]. - **Equity Market and Institutional Behavior**: Against the backdrop of a booming equity market, funds flowed into the stock market. Compared with 2021 when insurance and funds had a greater demand for bonds, in 2026, factors such as the entry of insurance funds into the market and the lack of comparative advantages of pure bonds may limit the demand support for bonds [21]. January Bond Market Review Bond Market Trend Review - **First Week**: The 10Y Treasury interest rate rose 3bp to 1.88%. At the beginning of the year, affected by supply shocks and the A - share market's good start, the yield first rose and then fell, reaching a peak and then declining. Later in the week, as negative factors were initially released, market sentiment improved marginally, and the ultra - long - term bonds returned to around 2.3% [26]. - **Second Week**: The 10Y Treasury interest rate dropped 4bp to 1.84%. In the second week, under the combined effect of equity market adjustments, policy games, and capital - market fluctuations, the bond market oscillated and recovered with increased volatility. After the central bank's over - amount renewal of repurchase agreements and the implementation of structural tool interest - rate cuts, the capital - market tension gradually eased. The adjustment policy of the exchange margin ratio for margin trading triggered risk - aversion trading in the equity market, and the bond market started a smooth upward trend [29]. - **Third Week**: The 10Y Treasury interest rate dropped 1bp to 1.83%. In the third week, with the central bank's support, the capital - market pressure was relatively controllable. As the equity market's upward trend slowed down, the bond market recovered. With the cooling of the equity market and the fermentation of external risk - aversion signals, the bullish sentiment in the bond market was boosted, and ultra - long - term bonds had a strong performance. At the end of the week, the central bank's over - amount renewal of MLF and the mention of "there is still some room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts this year" by the governor increased the market's expectation of an MLF interest - rate cut, and the bullish force in the bond market was strong [29]. - **Fourth Week**: The 10Y Treasury interest rate dropped 2bp to 1.81%. Near the end of the month, with a quiet market news environment, the stock - bond seesaw effect was strengthened, and the short - and long - term bond varieties showed different trends. At the beginning of the week, with tight capital, the short - term yield weakened, and the ultra - long - term bonds performed strongly, flattening the yield curve. Later, as the central bank's capital support took effect, the cross - month capital market was moderately loose. The medium - and short - term bonds strengthened overall, while the ultra - long - term bonds weakened under the influence of profit - taking sentiment and supply concerns, making the yield curve steeper [30]. Capital Market - The central bank net - injected 967.8 billion yuan through four major tools. At the beginning of the month, due to a large supply of bonds, capital prices gradually increased. In the middle of the month, affected by the reserve - requirement payment day and the deferred repurchase agreement, the capital market tightened. On the evening of January 14, the central bank announced an over - amount renewal of 90 billion yuan in repurchase agreements, with a net injection of 30 billion yuan this month, and the capital market gradually loosened. At the end of the month, facing the tax - payment period, capital prices increased again, and the central bank net - injected 7 - day funds to support liquidity, but the amount was not large [31]. - In January, capital prices generally increased. The monthly average of R001 increased 5bp to 1.41%, and the monthly average of R007 decreased 2bp to 1.55%. The monthly average of DR001 increased 6bp to 1.34%, and the monthly average of DR007 increased 2bp to 1.51%. The 3M inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) issuance rate oscillated in the range and then increased at the end of the month. The FR007 - 1Y swap rate first rose and then fell, and recovered at the end of the month. The 3M national - share bank bill rate first rose, then fell, and then recovered. As of January 30, the 3M national - share bank bill rate was 1.45%, and the monthly average from January 4 to 30 increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year [33]. Secondary Market Trends - In January, yields first rose and then fell. Except for 3m, 3y, 20y, and 30y, the Treasury interest rates of other key tenors declined. Except for 5y - 3y, 7y - 5y, and 50y - 30y, the term spreads of other key tenors of Treasury bonds widened. As of January 30, the yields of 7y and 5y Treasury bonds decreased 6bp and 5bp respectively compared with December 31, reaching 1.68% and 1.58%, with relatively large declines. The term spreads of 30y - 10y and 3y - 1y widened 6bp compared with December 31, reaching 48bp and 10bp respectively, with relatively large widening amplitudes [42]. - In January 2026, the spread between new and old 10Y Treasury bonds first widened and then narrowed, the negative spread between new and old 10Y China Development Bank bonds narrowed, and the spread between the second - active and active 30Y Treasury bonds first rose and then fell [44]. Bond Market Sentiment - In January 2026, the inter - bank leverage ratio first rose and then fell, the spread between 30Y and 10Y Treasury bonds continued to widen, and the duration of bond funds first increased and then decreased within the month. The weekly average turnover rate of 30Y Treasury bonds in January 2026 increased slightly compared with December 2025. Compared with December 31, 2025, the spread between 50Y and 30Y Treasury bonds narrowed 2.9bp, and the spread between 30Y and 10Y Treasury bonds widened 5.8bp on January 30, 2026. The inter - bank leverage ratio rose to 108.2% at the beginning of January and fell to 107.4% at the end of the month, and the exchange leverage ratio continued to decline and fell to 123.0% at the end of the month. Compared with December 31, 2025, the median duration of the full - sample bond funds remained basically the same on January 30, 2026, and the median duration of interest - rate bond funds decreased by 0.04 years. The implied tax rate of 10Y China Development Bank bonds widened in January 2026 compared with December 2025 [50]. Bond Supply - In January 2026, the net financing amount of interest - rate bonds increased compared with December 2025 and January 2025. As of January 31, 2026, the net financing amount of interest - rate bonds in January 2026 was 133.12 billion yuan, an increase of 85.24 billion yuan compared with December 2025 and an increase of 29.77 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2025. The net financing amounts of Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - financial bonds all increased month - on - month [54]. - In January 2026, the issuance scale of Treasury bonds decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. From January 1 to January 31, 2026, a total of 13 Treasury bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 121.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 60.41 billion yuan compared with December 2025 and an increase of 19.85 billion yuan compared with January 2025, of which the proportion of those with a term of 1 year or less was 29%. On January 14, a new 30Y coupon - bearing Treasury bond 260002.IB was issued, with an issuance scale of 3.2 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 2.38%. On February 6, this 30Y coupon - bearing Treasury bond will be re - issued with 3.2 billion yuan [57]. - In January 2026, the issuance scale of local government bonds increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the issuance scale of local bonds will be large next week. From January 1 to January 31, 2026, 27 policy - financial bonds were issued, with an issuance scale of 69.28 billion yuan, an increase of 45.88 billion yuan compared with December 2025 and an increase of 12.58 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2025. 135 local government bonds were issued, with an issuance scale of 86.33 billion yuan, an increase of 57.96 billion yuan compared with December 2025 and an increase of 30.58 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2025. According to iFinD data as of January 31, 2026, it is planned to issue 57.97 billion yuan in local bonds from February 2 to February 6 [59]. - In January 2026, the net repayment amount of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) increased, and the monthly issuance interest rate decreased. The total issuance amount of inter - bank NCDs in January 2026 was 169.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 143.57 billion yuan compared with December 2025. The total repayment amount was 231.62 billion yuan, and the net repayment amount was 62.28 billion yuan, an increase of 4.52 billion yuan month - on - month. The average issuance interest rate of NCDs in January 2026 was 1.62%, a decrease of 2.4bp compared with December 2025 [60]. Economic Data - In January, the manufacturing PMI returned to the contraction range. On January 31, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, the previous value was 50.1%; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, the previous value was 50.2%; the comprehensive manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, the previous value was 50.7% [63]. - Since January, second - hand housing transactions have recovered, and industrial production has weakened marginally. In terms of real - estate, the monthly average of the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities turned negative month - on - month but the year - on - year decline narrowed. The monthly average of the transaction area of second - hand housing in 13 cities turned positive month - on - month and the year - on - year decline narrowed. The monthly average of the land transaction area in 100 cities turned negative month - on - month and the year - on - year decline widened. In terms of consumption, movie monthly consumption was weak both month - on - month and year - on - year, travel increased month - on - month, and subway passenger volume was stronger than the seasonal level. In terms of exports, the monthly port throughput increased year - on - year, and the freight rate index continued to decline year - on - year. Industrial production weakened marginally. The monthly average of daily coal consumption in power plants increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The monthly average of the PTA and semi - steel tire operating rates increased month - on - month, while the operating rates of other indicators decreased month - on - month [63][65]. - The high - frequency infrastructure and price data in January showed that inventory indicators increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the prices of crude oil and asphalt increased significantly. In terms of infrastructure high - frequency data, the monthly average of the mill operating rate decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and the monthly average of the asphalt operating rate decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The monthly average of rebar inventory increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Among price indicators, the monthly average of cement and vegetable price indicators decreased month - on - month, while the monthly average of other price indicators increased month - on - month [66]. Overseas Bond Market - The Federal Reserve announced to keep interest rates unchanged. On January 28, the Federal Reserve ended its two - day monetary policy meeting and announced to keep the target range of the federal funds rate unchanged between 3.5% and 3.75%, which was in line with market expectations. The Federal Open Market Committee stated that existing indicators showed that the US economic activity was expanding steadily, but the uncertainty of the economic outlook remained high. Employment growth was persistently low, the unemployment rate showed some signs of stabilizing, and inflation remained at a relatively high level. Among the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee, 10 supported the monetary policy decision, and 2 members, Stephen Milan and Christopher Waller, voted against it, advocating a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut [71]. - The US PPI increase in December exceeded expectations. On January 30, data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the US PPI in December increased 3% year - on - year, with an expected increase of 2.8% and a previous value of 3%; it increased 0.5% month - on - month, with an expected increase of 0.2% and a previous value of 0.2%. The core PPI in December increased 3.3% year - on - year, with an expected increase of 2.9% and a previous value of 3%; it increased 0.7% month - on - month, with an expected increase of 0.2% and a previous value of 0% [71]. - Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. On January 30, US President Trump nominated former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, and this nomination needs to be approved by the Senate. Warsh joined the Federal Reserve in 2006 and was the youngest Federal Reserve governor at that time. In terms of monetary policy, he had a somewhat hawkish stance in the past and emphasized fiscal discipline and a more cautious attitude towards interest - rate cuts [72]. -

二 五 2026 年 2 月 1 日 二 〇 国债期货周报 年 度 唐立 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 Tangli2@gtht.com 虞堪 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 yukan@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 报告导读： 摘要： 上周周报我们提到"TL 合约上方压力位在 MA60 附近"，本周国债期货短端无明显波动，超长端有 所回落。 中期因央行货币政策相对克制、通胀预期转变、中长期资金入市导向、十五五政策预期无法证伪 等原因，维持大方向看震荡偏空的观点。 风险提示： 货币政策力度不及预期、权益市场情绪超预期、固收产品赎回超预期 （正文） 1. 周度聚焦与行情跟踪 上周周报我们提到"TL 合约上方压力位在 MA60 附近"，本周国债期货短端无明显波动，超长端有所回 落。 中期因央行货币政策相对克制、通胀预期转变、中长期资金入市导向、十五五政策预期无法证伪等原 因，维持大方向看震荡偏空的观点。 图 1：活跃合约走势 图 2：活跃合约周度涨跌幅 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 2. 流动性监控与曲线跟踪 ...

转自：京报网_北京日报官方网站 #特朗普预计沃什轻松过关#【#特朗普希望沃什降息#】据美国《国会山报》报道，美国总统特朗普当地 时间1月31日称，他预计自己提名的下任美联储主席凯文·沃什将轻松通过国会参议院的确认程序，并表 示希望沃什实施降息。"他是一个非常'高质量'的人选。他应该毫无困难就能通过。"特朗普在总统专 机"空军一号"上对记者说，并暗示沃什可能获得一些民主党人支持。报道援引特朗普的话称，他希望沃 什实施降息，但尚未收到任何承诺。"我希望他（沃什）能降息。我是说，如果你在电视上看到他，你 知道，因为我会看（他的）采访和声明，我希望他能降息。但你知道，他最终得做他自己想做的 事。"特朗普说。在一名记者追问下，特朗普补充说，"不，没有（收到）承诺。我不想那样做。我想如 果我愿意的话，我也可以那样做，但我没有做"。特朗普1月30日提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美 联储主席，这一提名还需获得参议院批准。沃什2006年加入美联储，是当时最年轻的美联储理事。在美 联储任职期间，沃什持鹰派货币政策立场，但近年转向支持特朗普的关税政策及加快降息立场。《国会 山报》提到，目前尚不清楚沃什能否获得足够支持以确认提名， ...

在一名记者追问下，特朗普补充说，"不，没有（收到）承诺。我不想那样做。我想如果我愿意的话， 我也可以那样做，但我没有做"。 特朗普1月30日提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，这一提名还需获得参议院批准。沃什 2006年加入美联储，是当时最年轻的美联储理事。在美联储任职期间，沃什持鹰派货币政策立场，但近 年转向支持特朗普的关税政策及加快降息立场。 《国会山报》提到，目前尚不清楚沃什能否获得足够支持以确认提名，因为特朗普政府对美联储的刑事 调查以及削弱其独立性的威胁已激怒民主党人。据悉，一些国会参议员正试图让美联储免受政治压力的 影响。共和党籍联邦参议员汤姆·蒂利斯1月30日说，尽管沃什是合格的人选，但由于司法部正对鲍威尔 进行刑事调查，"他会反对确认任何美联储相关提名，包括美联储主席职位"。 《国会山报》称，特朗普对此表示，他愿等到蒂利斯卸任后再确认相关提名，"我的意思是，他（蒂利 斯）将因为某些原因离开参议院，因为他要求的事情没实现，所以这就是其中的原因之一"。 美联储现任主席鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束，但其美联储理事职位任期将持续至2028年1月底。特 朗普在其首个总统任期里就曾多次批评鲍 ...

【环球网报道 记者 李梓瑜】据美国《国会山报》报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间1月31日称，他预计自 己提名的下任美联储主席凯文·沃什将轻松通过国会参议院的确认程序，并表示希望沃什实施降息。 特朗普（左）和凯文·沃什。资料图 图自美媒 特朗普1月30日提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，这一提名还需获得参议院批准。沃什 2006年加入美联储，是当时最年轻的美联储理事。在美联储任职期间，沃什持鹰派货币政策立场，但近 年转向支持特朗普的关税政策及加快降息立场。 《国会山报》提到，目前尚不清楚沃什能否获得足够支持以确认提名，因为特朗普政府对美联储的刑事 调查以及削弱其独立性的威胁已激怒民主党人。据悉，一些国会参议员正试图让美联储免受政治压力的 影响。共和党籍联邦参议员汤姆·蒂利斯1月30日说，尽管沃什是合格的人选，但由于司法部正对鲍威尔 进行刑事调查，"他会反对确认任何美联储相关提名，包括美联储主席职位"。 《国会山报》称，特朗普对此表示，他愿等到蒂利斯卸任后再确认相关提名，"我的意思是，他（蒂利 斯）将因为某些原因离开参议院，因为他要求的事情没实现，所以这就是其中的原因之一"。 美联储现任主席鲍威尔的任期将于 ...

北京时间1月30日，特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）接任美联储主席，引发市场热议"沃什时代"的美联储政策。为什么是沃什、他将如何重塑美联 储？ 一、热点思考：旧制度的复兴——"沃什时代"的美联储 （一）"沃什冲击"：特朗普选择沃什，美债收益率曲线"陡峭化"，美元走强 本次美联储主席提名历时较长，反映特朗普政府在忠诚度、降息立场、政策声誉、改革议程和华尔街影响力等多方面的艰难权衡。 2025年8月-2026年1月 底，最可能的"影子主席"在五位候选人中不断切换，或主要与面试的先后次序及媒体报道相关，并不代表真实概率。 2017年提名时期，市场对领跑候选人的预期也呈现较大波动，但波折程度远不及此轮。 2017年11月特朗普提名鲍威尔之前，沃什提名预期一度领跑，直至10 月初才被鲍威尔反超。反观此轮，哈赛特概率一度超过80%，远超上一轮水平，且沃什概率在最后一个月还曾被里德反超。 市场对不同候选人的"定价"显著不同。 1）11月哈赛特概率飙升时，市场交易凸显对"独立性"的担忧；2）1月末里德概率飙升时，市场呈现"宽松-金发女 郎"交易；3）1月30日，沃什概率飙升时，市场走出"紧缩交易"，美债利率 ...

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