Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，铝价预计短期偏强震荡 [2][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs 成材 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨，安徽省短流程钢厂停产期间日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [3][4] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比降40.3%，同比增43.2% [4] -成材昨日震荡下行价格创新低，供需双弱、市场情绪悲观致价格重心下移，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [4] 铝锭 -昨日铝价偏强震荡，因中美贸易摩擦担忧缓和，投资者信心修复，铝需求预期提振 [3] -上周国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率环比涨0.3个百分点至61.9%，各板块开工分化，铝板带开工率降0.4个百分点，铝线缆开工率升1.4个百分点，型材开工率降1.5个百分点 [4] -5月12日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存60.1万吨，较上周四降1.9万吨，较5月6日降3.5万吨，预计本周四有望跌破60万吨 [4] 后期关注因素 -成材关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [4] -铝锭关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复产情况、消费释放情况 [5]

行业 MEG 日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 13 日 料油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 业硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 收盘价（元/吨） | ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普透露，其于周一早间与苹果公司(AAPL.US)首席执行官蒂姆·库克进行了通话。此次对话背景是，据知情人士消息称，这 家科技巨头正评估是否在今年秋季新品发布时上调iPhone系列售价，但暂未就是否涨价作出最终决定。截至发稿，苹果公司尚未对相关报道作出回应。 在最新财报会议上，库克坦言本季度可能因关税承受约9亿美元额外成本，但面对分析师对潜在涨价的追问，其仅以"暂无可宣布事项"回避回应。值得关注 的是，库克在特朗普首任期内曾成功游说白宫豁免部分产品关税，此次双方通话是否涉及贸易议题尚未可知。 自2017年iPhone X以999美元起售价面世以来，苹果旗舰机型定价已维持七年未变。但特朗普政府此前宣布的全球关税计划，迫使这家供应链深度依赖中国 的企业重新评估成本结构。今年2月，苹果已率先上调入门款机型iPhone 16e售价，该机型取代了此前定位亲民的iPhone SE系列，显示其在特定产品线具备 提价空间。 据报道，苹果内部正探讨将涨价与新机型功能升级、设计迭代进行"策略性绑定"，以避免消费者将价格调整与美国对华加征关税直接关联。这一动向发生在 中美贸易摩擦出现缓和迹象之际——周 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent pause in the US-China tariff trade friction, highlighting the importance of sustainable bilateral trade relations for both countries and the global economy [3][4]. Group 1: Tariff Changes - The US has committed to canceling 91% of tariffs imposed on Chinese goods and modifying a 34% tariff, with 24% of it suspended for 90 days, while retaining 10% [3]. - China reciprocated by canceling 91% of its counter-tariffs on US goods and suspending 24% of the 34% counter-tariff for 90 days, keeping 10% [3]. Group 2: Impact on Businesses - Major retailers like Amazon and Walmart have adjusted their strategies in response to tariff changes, with Amazon labeling "tariff costs" on products, which was met with strong opposition from the White House [5]. - Smaller trading companies lack the negotiating power of larger firms and remain in a passive position amid the trade tensions [5][6]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Pricing - The cancellation of the T86 tax exemption for small packages has led to increased costs for cross-border platforms, causing a price surge for goods [10]. - Shipping costs have doubled, with container prices rising from around $6,000 to between $12,000 and $15,000, impacting low-margin consumer goods [12][11]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - American consumers' perception of Chinese products has shifted from low-quality to brand recognition and trust, with Xiaomi's success in the US market exemplifying this change [16]. - Retailers like Costco and Best Buy have different pricing strategies, affecting how suppliers manage their pricing and inventory in response to tariffs [17]. Group 5: Domestic Market Opportunities - Domestic retailers in China, such as Yonghui and Hema, are increasingly engaging with export traders to source foreign products, indicating a shift in market dynamics [22]. - Some suppliers are exploring domestic markets for their products, but challenges remain for those with customized products due to differing consumer preferences and production costs [23].

Group 1: Trade Tariff Changes - The overall tariff level imposed by the U.S. on China will decrease from 145% to approximately 30% within the next 90 days[1] - The current U.S. tariffs consist of a 20% fentanyl tariff and a 34% "reciprocal tariff," which will be reduced to 10% in the next 90 days[2] - The U.S. has committed to canceling an additional 91% retaliatory tariffs imposed since April 8, 2025, while China will also eliminate corresponding retaliatory measures[3] Group 2: Economic Impact and Future Outlook - The impact of U.S. tariffs on China's GDP is estimated to be around -1%, with a potential reduction in exports by approximately 1.3 trillion RMB based on a 30% tariff level[3] - The future trajectory of the fentanyl tariff may see gradual reductions, as discussions on this issue were highlighted in recent negotiations[4] - The "reciprocal tariff" is expected to stabilize above 10% after the initial 90-day period, reflecting ongoing trade deficit concerns[5] - The necessity for significant counter-cyclical policy adjustments in China is expected to decrease, with a positive outlook for technology stocks due to improved market risk appetite[8]

5月10日-11日，中美双方代表终于在瑞士见面，并且进行会谈。根据媒体透露出来的消息，会谈时间长 达8小时，结果还算不错。 之后中方代表团确认，这次会谈氛围很不错，取得了实质性进展，双方一致同意建立经贸磋商机制，12 日双方发布了联合声明。 这样看来，美国一直想要谈判的目标是达成了，但是此前要"降低关税换稀土"的说法真的实现了吗？ 中美连谈两天 自从特朗普宣布"对等关税"以后，中美之间的博弈就成了最具看点的戏剧，其中特朗普的"变脸"更是一 绝。 刚开始态度十分强硬，对于中国的对等反制丝毫不让步，反而是将越加越多，还炫耀很多国家主动给他 打电话求谈判。 可是就算有很多国家主动求和，美国再在意的还是中国，毕竟中国的反制才是伤及美国大动脉的。 果然在中国依旧强硬的态度下，特朗普自己就先软了，各种暗示想与中国谈判，终于在5月7日找到了机 会，经过瑞士的牵线搭桥双方在日内瓦进行会谈。 对于这个消息，美国政府上下都表现得十分兴奋，财长贝森特接受采访时不经意地透露，双方碰巧都在 瑞士，所以有机会进行会谈。 5月10日是会谈的第一天，特朗普就在他的"真实社交"上发文，说：与中国在瑞士进行了一次非常好的 会谈，讨论了很多问题， ...

Export Performance - In April, exports increased by 8.1% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and seasonal levels, with a cumulative export value of $1,169.06 billion for the first four months, reflecting a 6.4% year-on-year growth[11][1]. - The export growth was supported by a significant increase in trade with ASEAN and the EU, with ASEAN becoming China's largest trading partner, showing a 20.8% year-on-year growth in exports to this region[17][1]. - Exports to the US saw a notable decline of 21.03% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of the US's 145% tariffs on Chinese goods[26][1]. Trade Dynamics - The trade policies of the US have led to a decrease in export share to the US, while shares to the EU and ASEAN have increased, indicating a strengthening of cooperation among non-US countries[14][1]. - The overall trade environment remains optimistic, with potential for policy adjustments in July that could influence export dynamics[39][1]. Key Risks - Future export performance faces uncertainties, particularly regarding the extension of the US tariff exemption period and the outcomes of ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China[42][1]. - Risks include the potential escalation of global trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts, which could adversely affect trade flows and economic stability[43][1].

目 录 01 豆粕：供应逐步改善，价格震荡下行 01 豆粕：供应逐步改善，价格震荡下行 长江期货粕类油脂周报 2025-05-12 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 联 系 人：姚 杨 执业编号:F03113968 01 02 油脂：供应压力仍存，期价反弹受限 豆粕 ：供应逐步改善，价格震荡下行 ◆ 期现端：截止5月9日，华东现货报价3110元/吨，周度下跌190元/吨，M2509合约收盘至2899元/吨，周度下跌21元/吨，基差报价09+200元/吨，周度 下跌150元/吨。周度豆粕价格偏弱运行，随着大豆到港增加，油厂开机率上扬以及备货结束，大豆豆粕进入累库周期，现货价格快速回落。M2509合约受 到港压制以及供应压力后移影响，价格走势偏弱。 ◆ 供应端：5月美豆UDSA供需报告即将公布，市场预估25/26年度美豆种植面积维持在8350万英亩；单产方面，市场维持52.5蒲/英亩。但受中美贸易摩擦 影响，预计本次报告下调美豆出口上调国内压榨。当前美豆主产区天气良好，利于大豆播种，截至5月4日美豆已完成 30%的播种率，单周推进了 ...

Group 1 - Southeast Asia's importance has increased significantly in the context of US-China rivalry, with ASEAN now being the fifth-largest economy globally, growing from 5.0% of the world economy in 2001 to 6.4% in 2023 [1] - ASEAN countries have also become a crucial player in global trade, with their share of world goods exports rising from 6.2% in 2001 to 7.6% in 2023, nearly equivalent to the combined exports of Africa and Latin America [1] - The economic growth rate of Southeast Asian countries has outpaced the global average, with an annual growth rate of 5.0% compared to the global average of 3.0% since the 21st century [1][2] Group 2 - The geopolitical competition between major powers has raised questions about whether Southeast Asia's development space is shrinking or expanding, particularly in the context of China's relationship with Southeast Asia amid US pressure [2] - The rise of East Asia has altered the economic landscape, with countries like Japan and the "Four Asian Tigers" achieving significant GDP growth relative to the US [3][4] - The "flying geese" model describes a dynamic division of labor in East Asia, where higher-income countries transfer outdated industries to lower-income countries, fostering regional economic development [5][6] Group 3 - The emergence of value-added trade has transformed Southeast Asia's trade patterns, with countries increasingly focusing on specific stages of production rather than complete goods [7][8] - Vietnam has become a prime example of a Southeast Asian country benefiting from value chain trade, with its foreign value-added exports rising significantly since joining the WTO in 2007 [13][20] - The US-China trade tensions have led to a shift in Southeast Asia's trade dynamics, with countries like Vietnam enhancing their trade relationships with the US while maintaining ties with China [20][24] Group 4 - The geopolitical landscape has influenced Southeast Asia's trade relationships, with a notable increase in dependence on exports to the US, which rose from 8.5% to 14.8% of ASEAN's exports between 2018 and 2022 [17][24] - The region's internal market development has been impacted by geopolitical tensions, as evidenced by the decline in intra-ASEAN trade from 24.0% to 21.3% of total exports [24] - The ongoing US-China rivalry presents both opportunities and challenges for Southeast Asian countries, as they navigate their positions between the two powers while seeking to enhance their economic development [20][22]

80%这个数字，不像是在谈判，更像是在赌气。5月9日晚，北京时间，特朗普在社交平台上的一句话，把中美之间本就紧张的贸易 氛围再度点燃。对中国商品加征80%的关税？还说是斯科特·贝森特建议的。这话一出来，市场震了一下，人心也跟着抖了抖。可 转过头来看，美国方面却还是在催促中国加大进口美国产品的节奏。这一唱一和，实在让人摸不着头脑。 有人说，这不过是特朗普一贯的"先砸桌子，再要好处"的套路。可问题是，这个桌子他砸了好几年了，关税从10%加到25%，从单 一商品扩到大范围征收，结果呢？美国对华贸易逆差没怎么减少，反倒是美国企业和消费者先喊疼了。美国全国零售联合会的报告 早就指出，加征关税最终是美国人自己买单。这不是谁的观点，是数据摆在那儿的现实。 把时间倒回去看。2018年开始，美国陆续对数千亿美元的中国产品征收关税。一年之后，美国农业出口缩水，制造业陷入不确定， 苹果手机、玩具、自行车的售价都上涨。连沃尔玛都不得不提醒顾客：东西可能要涨价了。而这一轮80%的说法，更像是特朗普为 了选战拉票抛出的"强硬姿态"，是政治算盘在精打细算。 但问题是，对中国挥舞大棒，就能解决美国自身的问题吗？恐怕没那么简单。美国制造回流口 ...