Core Viewpoint - The Jinan Tianqiao District is actively promoting consumption through a series of initiatives, including the introduction of new commercial stores and a variety of consumer activities aimed at enhancing market vitality and transforming the local economy [1][3][5]. Group 1: Consumption Promotion Activities - Tianqiao District plans to conduct 60 consumption promotion events this year, with a focus on introducing 8 new commercial flagship stores [1][6]. - The district aims to create a vibrant consumption environment by organizing monthly themed activities that encompass shopping, cultural tourism, food, sports, and night economy [8]. Group 2: Economic Transformation Strategies - The district is transitioning from a trade hub to a strong trade area by implementing policies that support market expansion and quality improvement, with nearly 200,000 market entities currently operating [3][5]. - The "Traditional Industry +" strategy is being deepened to enhance consumer experiences through technology, culture, and cross-industry integration [5][6]. Group 3: New Consumption Ecosystems - The 1922 eSports New Media Industrial Park is being developed as a new consumption ecosystem, expected to attract over 500,000 participants through various events [4]. - The integration of home furnishing, sports, and business at the Jinniu Building Materials Home Expo Center is creating a new sports consumption scene with regular events [4]. Group 4: Supportive Policies and Infrastructure - Comprehensive support policies have been introduced to benefit over 500 commercial enterprises in the district, with promotional activities leading to a consumption boost of over 30 million yuan in the first quarter [6][7]. - The district has established a "one-stop rights protection service area" to enhance consumer protection and improve the efficiency of complaint resolution [7].

近期，各部委密集出台了一系列促消费惠民生的补贴政策，涉及文化旅游、电影消费、技能提升、农 业、新能源汽车等多个领域，一起来看→ 景区、酒店、剧场等推出优惠促销！ 惠民补贴超10亿元 文化和旅游部召开新闻发布会，介绍2025年"5·19中国旅游日"活动相关情况，提到从4月21日至5 月31日，引导旅游景区、旅行社、酒店民宿、院团剧场等推出门票减免、折扣套餐、联票优惠等优 惠促销活动，集中推出文化和旅游消费券包。多个合作单位拟投入惠民补贴超10亿元，各地计划出 台的惠民举措超6000项，进一步激发全民参与热情和旅游消费潜力。 2 看电影有优惠补贴！ 不少于10亿元 近日，国家电影局等启动"中国电影消费年"，以充分发挥电影对提振社会消费的带动作用。"中国 电影消费年"将推出一系列电影消费惠民活动，突出跨行业、跨部门协同联动，打出促进消费组合 拳。主要支持单位预计投入不少于10亿元观影优惠补贴，围绕重点档期支持电影消费季，并持续开 展"周末一起看电影"等促销活动，为观众带来优惠福利。 3 这些车辆和电池更新有补贴！ 8万元、4.2万元 交通运输部办公厅、国家发展改革委办公厅、财政部办公厅印发《2025年新能源城市公交 ...

谈及房地产行业，陆挺认为尽管当前房地产行业仍处于调整期，但在人口向大城市集聚、老旧住房 更新需求释放等趋势下，房地产市场仍有很大发展空间。他建议，剩余城市的限购限售可以进一步 取消，全面释放市场活力。同步加快行业债务出清进程，强化保交房政策执行力度，通过"保交付、 稳预期"重构购房者信心。 本文节选自腾讯财经《经济大家说》栏目对野村中国首席经济学家陆挺博士视频专访的专篇报道，请点击"阅读原 文"查看原报道。 2025年一季度中国经济以5.4%的增速超预期开局，彰显了中国经济在复杂环境下的韧性。然而，持 续的中美关税战仍为接下来的经济走势增添了不确定性。 面对内外挑战，野村中国首席经济学家陆挺在与腾讯财经《经济大家说》栏目对话时指出，中美贸易冲 突升级可能导致中国出口增速下降，叠加房地产行业萎缩，二季度起GDP增速或放缓。对此，他认为接 下来提振经济，需要进一步刺激消费，并稳住房地产。 在经历了两轮"以旧换新"政策后，耐用品刺激政策边际效应逐步递减，促消费政策可转向耐用品消 费之外，陆挺认为"推动养老体系改革和保障水平提升，才是最具效能的促消费工具。"他进一步给 出具体建议：提升农民养老金，通过增强中低收入群体 ...

小龙虾消费季来了！4月27日，武汉市人民政府新闻办公室召开新闻发布会，介绍2025武汉"夏日荟聚"促消费活动暨小龙虾消费季相关 情况。 见习编辑：冯瀚莹 "乐购武汉"板块，包含寻味一夏（虾）、优选一夏、清凉一夏、焕新一夏四大系列主题活动。武汉将以"相约武汉嘬虾子"为话题，线 上线下联动开展系列美食活动。重点举办小龙虾消费季，联动肥肥虾庄、靓靓蒸虾、巴厘龙虾、一棠龙虾、虾皇等品牌虾企，推出美食盛 宴和特色龙虾节、嘉年华等活动，并发布小龙虾美食地图，持续推广"武汉十大名菜、十大名点"，让市民游客充分体味舌尖上的武汉。 在展会方面，武汉将推出华中国际车展、中国武汉茶博会、华夏家博会、华中国际美妆博览会等消费展，光博会、全国医院建设大 会、智慧城市与智能建造产业博览会等专业展会，以及CGF中国动漫游戏节等"Z世代"特色展会。 活动期间，武汉还将整合龙虾美食、特色排档、江城夜游等消费资源，开展武汉啤酒音乐嘉年华、中法夏至音乐日、首创奥莱"太空奇 缘·城市音乐派对"、白沙天街落日派对、江汉路"心动"市集等夜游、夜购、夜食、夜娱、夜健活动。 同时，武汉将持续开展消费品以旧换新活动，联动汽车、家电、家居、3C数码等销售企业和 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - For Treasury bonds, expect increased volatility and remain cautious [6][7] - For stock indices, be optimistic about the long - term performance and wait for opportunities to go long [10][11] - For precious metals, the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains strong, and previous long positions can be held [12][13][14] - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and participate with a light position [15][16] - For iron ore, investors can look for buying opportunities at low levels, and participate with a light position [17][18][19] - For coking coal and coke, investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and participate with a light position [20][21] - For ferroalloys, consider manganese silicon out - of - the - money call options at low levels and short - covering opportunities for silicon iron at the bottom, or consider out - of - the - money call options at low levels if there are large spot losses [22][23] - For crude oil, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [24][25][26] - For fuel oil, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [27][28][29] - For synthetic rubber, expect weak oscillations [30][31] - For natural rubber, expect weak oscillations [32][33] - For PVC, expect bottom oscillations [34][35][37] - For urea, expect short - term weakness [38][39] - For p - xylene (PX), expect low - level oscillations following the cost side, and operate with caution [40][41] - For PTA, expect bottom oscillations, and participate with caution [42] - For ethylene glycol, expect bottom oscillations, and participate with caution [43][44] - For staple fiber, expect bottom adjustments following the cost side, and participate with caution [45] - For bottle chips, expect low - level oscillations following the cost side, and pay attention to cost price changes [46][47] - For soda ash, expect short - term weakness [48] - For glass, expect a weak market sentiment [49] - For caustic soda, price fluctuations depend on supply - demand games, and beware of premature market movements [50][51] - For pulp, expect a weak and low - level repeated oscillation [52] - For lithium carbonate, expect a weak operation [53] - For copper, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [54][55] - For tin, expect price oscillations, control risks in the short term, and wait for the release of risk sentiment [56] - For nickel, control risks in the short term, and wait for the macro sentiment to stabilize [57] - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, consider short - selling at high levels on rebounds [58][59][60] - For soybean oil and soybean meal, remain on the sidelines for soybean meal; for soybean oil, consider out - of - the - money call options at the bottom support range [61][62] - For palm oil, remain on the sidelines for now [63][64] - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider the opportunity to widen the spread after the soybean - rapeseed spread narrows [65][66] - For cotton, wait to short sell the far - month contract at high prices after a rebound [67][68][69] - For sugar, remain on the sidelines [71][73][74] - For apples, consider going long at low prices after a pullback [76][77] - For live pigs, consider short - selling opportunities at high prices [78][79][80] - For eggs, wait for the release of the current market sentiment [81][82] - For corn, remain on the sidelines for now [83][84] - For logs, beware of a rapid decline if the reality is weaker than expected [85][86] Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a differentiated close of Treasury bond futures, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts having different price changes. The central bank conducted 250.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 222 billion yuan [5] - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but yields are relatively low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, and it is advisable to remain cautious [6] Stock Indices - The previous trading day saw slight oscillations in stock index futures, with different changes in the main contracts of various indices [8][9] - The first - quarter fiscal revenue decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and expenditure increased by 4.2%. In March, total social power consumption increased by 4.8% year - on - year [9] - Although there are concerns about corporate profit growth and global recession, domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have hedging space. Be optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets [10] Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw gold and silver main contracts with different price changes. The complex global trade and financial environment, potential monetary policy easing, and other factors are expected to drive up the price of gold [12] - Be optimistic about the long - term value of gold, and previous long positions can be held [13] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day saw a slight correction in rebar and hot - rolled coil futures. The real - estate industry's downturn suppresses rebar prices, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. Hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Steel prices are at a low valuation, and the downward space may be limited [15] Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw a slight correction in iron ore futures. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in imports and port inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high among black - series products. Consider buying at low levels [17][18] Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw weak oscillations in coking coal and coke futures. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the transaction atmosphere has weakened. The shipment of coke has improved, but the possibility of further price increases is low. Consider short - selling on rebounds [20] Ferroalloys - The previous trading day saw slight declines in the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak while the supply is relatively high. Consider options opportunities based on different situations [22][23] Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw INE crude oil rise and then fall. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased, and OPEC deepened its production - cut agreement. Consider a long - biased operation [24][25][26] Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw fuel oil rise and then fall. Asian fuel oil demand is unlikely to increase sharply. The sales of marine fuel oil in the UAE's Fujairah Port recovered in March. Consider a long - biased operation as the market may be oscillating upward [27][28][29] Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of synthetic rubber. Supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, and it may maintain weak oscillations [30] Natural Rubber - The previous trading day saw different price changes in the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber. Global supply is expected to increase, demand is affected by tariffs, and it may maintain weak oscillations [32] PVC - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of PVC. Supply pressure eases marginally, demand recovers weakly, and it may oscillate at the bottom [34][35][37] Urea - The previous trading day saw an increase in the main contract of urea. In the short term, it may oscillate weakly. Agricultural demand is in a lull, and new production capacity is being released [38] P - Xylene (PX) - The previous trading day saw an increase in the PX2509 main contract. PX装置 maintenance and downstream PTA load reduction. It is expected to oscillate at a low level following the cost side [40][41] PTA - The previous trading day saw an increase in the PTA2509 main contract. Supply and demand fundamentals have few contradictions, and it may oscillate at the bottom [42] Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of ethylene glycol. Supply improves due to coal - based plant maintenance, but demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [43][44] Staple Fiber - The previous trading day saw a decline in the staple fiber 2506 main contract. Downstream demand is weak, and it may adjust at the bottom following the cost side [45] Bottle Chips - The previous trading day saw an increase in the bottle chips 2506 main contract. Raw material prices fluctuate, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level following the cost side [46][47] Soda Ash - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2509 contract of soda ash. Production and inventory are at high levels, and the market may remain weak in the short term [48] Glass - The previous trading day saw a significant decline in the main 2509 contract of glass. A production line changed its product type. Production lines are at a low level, and inventory changes little. The market sentiment is weak [49] Caustic Soda - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in the main 2505 contract of caustic soda. Production decreased last week, and demand has slightly improved. Price fluctuations depend on supply - demand games [50][51] Pulp - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2507 contract of pulp. Port inventory increased slightly, and downstream开工 rates varied. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level [52] Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of lithium carbonate. The trade tariff event affects demand, and supply remains high. It is expected to operate weakly [53] Copper - The previous trading day saw an upward oscillation in Shanghai copper. The price increased, and the spot market had limited supply. Consider a long - biased operation [54] Tin - The previous trading day saw an increase in tin prices. The Bisie tin mine may resume operation, and Indonesian mining costs have increased. Consumption data is good, and prices are expected to oscillate [56] Nickel - The previous trading day saw a decline in nickel prices. The US tariff event has a negative impact on the market. Supply is tightened, and cost support is strong, but demand may weaken in the off - season [57] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The previous trading day saw a significant decline in the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon. Supply and demand are imbalanced, and prices are expected to continue to bottom - out [58][59] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day saw declines in soybean meal and soybean oil main contracts. Brazilian soybean production is high, and domestic supply is abundant. Consider different strategies for soybean oil and soybean meal [61][62] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil had a slight decline. Domestic imports decreased, and inventory is at a low level. Remain on the sidelines for now [63][64] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed exports decreased. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian products, and domestic inventories are at high levels. Consider the opportunity to widen the spread [65][66] Cotton - The previous trading day saw a weak oscillation in domestic cotton. US cotton export sales increased, and the planting rate is lower than in previous years. Textile exports are affected by tariffs, and domestic demand is weak. Consider short - selling the far - month contract at high prices [67][68][69] Sugar - The previous trading day saw a strong oscillation in domestic sugar. Brazilian sugar production increased, and Indian sugar production was lower than expected. Domestic inventory is neutral, and it is advisable to remain on the sidelines [71][73][74] Apples - The previous trading day saw apple futures rise and then fall. Cold - storage inventory decreased rapidly, and the market sales are good. Consider going long at low prices after a pullback [76][77] Live Pigs - The previous day saw a slight decline in the national average price of live pigs. Demand is weak, and the supply pressure is increasing. Consider short - selling opportunities at high prices [78][79][80] Eggs - The previous trading day saw an increase in the average price of eggs in the main production areas. Egg production capacity is increasing, and consider waiting for the release of market sentiment [81][82] Corn - The previous trading day saw a decline in the corn main contract. The sales of the current season are almost over, and port inventory is high. Supply pressure exists in the short term, and consumption is slightly increasing. Remain on the sidelines for now [83][84] Logs - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2507 contract of logs. A tropical cyclone may affect shipments. Inventory is relatively neutral, and beware of a rapid decline [85][86]

Core Viewpoint - Henan Province is launching the "Buy Henan · Quality Life" second-quarter consumption promotion campaign, which includes issuing consumption vouchers for retail, dining, cultural tourism, and accommodation sectors [1] Group 1: Consumption Promotion Activities - The campaign will distribute consumption vouchers aimed at boosting spending in retail, dining, cultural tourism, and accommodation [1] - Implementation details for trade-in programs in various sectors such as home decoration, electric bicycles, agricultural machinery, and old operating trucks will be introduced [1]

智通财经4月15日电，劲仔食品、麦趣尔涨停，一致魔芋涨超10%,，朱老六、惠发食品、盖世食品、三 只松鼠、巴比食品、盐津铺子等跟涨。消息面上，近日，中办、国办印发的《提振消费专项行动方案》 与今年更加积极的财政政策同向发力，要求"发挥财政政策引导带动作用"，将促消费同惠民生、补短板 结合起来。 食品股异动拉升 劲仔食品涨停 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Tan Zhou Town Government Service Center aims to deeply integrate convenience and benefits for enterprises into the national consumption promotion policy system, focusing on three dimensions: solidifying the foundation of livelihood security, enhancing the quality of life services, and optimizing the market environment for entities, thereby addressing concerns that restrict consumption and effectively transforming policy dividends into endogenous momentum for the consumption market [1]. Group 1: Livelihood Security - "Employment Protection" for steady income: Establishing an "online intelligent matching + offline precise guidance" employment service system, providing 14 services including rapid unemployment insurance claims and one-stop entrepreneurial support, thereby solidifying the income base for residents and injecting fresh vitality into consumption capacity [3]. - "Sunshine Subsidies" to reduce burdens: Integrating 37 types of livelihood subsidies such as maternity allowances, pension supplements, and funeral expenses into a "one-window" service, directly releasing household consumption potential and encouraging residents to consume [3]. Group 2: Quality Consumption - "Elderly and Child" supply enhancement: Setting up elderly-friendly service areas and launching "Worry-Free Silver Hair" health consumption guidance, along with innovative "Newborn Gift Packs" integrated services, serving over 400 families with infants annually, accurately addressing new demands in maternal and infant consumption [4]. - "Cultural and Tourism Integration" to create scenarios: Establishing service consultation points for the cultural and tourism industry, providing "joint license handling" services for new business formats such as homestays and specialty dining, and assisting in creating night economy demonstration streets and boutique rural tourism routes as new consumption landmarks [4]. - "Smart Business Circles" to promote integration: Deploying intelligent government service terminal devices in core business circles, achieving "one-stop" handling of 845 high-frequency matters such as document printing, public service inquiries, and utility payments, effectively promoting the integration of commerce, tourism, and consumption [4]. Group 3: Market Vitality - "Accelerated Business Setup": Creating a "1+N joint license handling" model, enabling the full process of business setup in sectors like beauty and retail to be completed in 4 hours, continuously expanding the supply side of consumption [5]. - "Project Approval" efficiency enhancement: Establishing a "simplified approval" channel for commercial complexes and cultural tourism projects, reducing approval times by 60% [6]. - "Comprehensive Enterprise Services": Forming a team to assist businesses in the catering, accommodation, and cultural entertainment sectors, providing a combination of "policy + licenses + technology" services, promoting digital transformation and innovation in traditional service industries to complete consumption upgrade modifications [7]. Group 4: Service Upgrades - "Cloud Government" to break barriers: Innovating a "cross-border video handling" model, serving over 70 items for residents of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, benefiting the consumption group in the region [7]. - "Demand Response" to improve the environment: Establishing a "prompt handling" mechanism for enterprise complaints, with a response time of 1 hour, connection within 1 day, and resolution within 5 working days [7]. Future Outlook - The Tan Zhou Town Government Service Center will continue to deepen government service reforms, providing more efficient and considerate services to support the vigorous development of the consumption market, ensuring that the "soft environment" of government services truly becomes a "hard support" for boosting consumption [8].

Group 1: AI Industry and Ecosystem - The AI industry chain covers multiple levels, including infrastructure, model, platform, application, and service layers, with key areas such as chips, computing, storage, networking, and software [1] - DeepSeek has achieved significant performance improvements in model training and inference through innovative training methods and architectures, resulting in lower training costs compared to industry averages [1] - OpenAI's GPT series, including GPT-4, has driven the development of the AI industry, particularly in utilizing pre-training principles like Scaling Law [1] - The rapid growth in AI computing power demand will benefit related industries such as semiconductors, storage, servers, optical modules, PCBs, and power supplies [1] Group 2: Home Appliance Sector Investment Opportunities - The home appliance sector, particularly the three major white goods (air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines), is characterized by low valuations, high dividends, and stable growth, making it an attractive investment area [2] - The second-hand housing market has shown a rapid recovery, with a 92.2% week-on-week increase in transaction area in key cities from February 8 to 14, indicating strong market resilience [2] - Air conditioner domestic sales growth reached 11.4%, reflecting positive effects from seasonal stocking and national subsidy policies [2] - The kitchen appliance sector is expected to benefit from the recovery in the second-hand housing market, suggesting a focus on undervalued kitchen appliance stocks [2] Group 3: Economic Policies and Inflation - The effectiveness of "capacity reduction" and "consumption promotion" policies is debated, with a greater emphasis on expanding consumer demand to stimulate economic recovery [3] - Service prices have reached historical lows, and a significant increase in service prices could positively impact the GDP deflator index [3] - A dual approach of "capacity reduction" and "consumption promotion" is necessary, but prioritizing consumption promotion is deemed more effective [3] Group 4: Commercial Aerospace Development - The number of global commercial space launches has doubled in the past three years, surpassing non-commercial launches, with commercial launches accounting for 56% of the total [4] - The construction of commercial space launch facilities and satellite manufacturing capabilities in Hainan is accelerating, with expectations of significant increases in launch capacity by 2026 [4] - The market potential for China's commercial aerospace upstream satellite manufacturing is estimated to be between 368.8 billion to 463.7 billion yuan from 2024 to 2030 [4] Group 5: AI and Consumer Trends - Technology is driving consumption upgrades, with the consumer sector expected to become a new growth driver for the economy as macroeconomic conditions stabilize [5] - AI technology is anticipated to revolutionize the home appliance industry, particularly in products like robotic vacuum cleaners, which have substantial market potential [6] - The application of AI in education (2C AI) presents significant market opportunities, especially in scenarios with large user bases and essential needs [7] - Emerging e-commerce brands have rapidly developed by leveraging online platforms, contributing to the consumer stock market boom post-2016 [8]

Group 1 - The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference prioritizes "boosting consumption" as the top task for 2025, emphasizing the need to expand domestic demand comprehensively [1] - Experts suggest integrating consumption promotion with livelihood improvement and fundamental reforms, focusing on income distribution policies and social welfare system reforms to ensure future income security [1] - Stability in the stock and real estate markets is deemed crucial for boosting consumption, as they are key to national wealth and balance sheet stability [1] Group 2 - Sustainable growth in consumption is linked to job creation and stability, with private enterprises playing a vital role in fostering consumer confidence [2] - Positive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies are expected to have a favorable impact on resident consumption in 2025, contributing more to economic growth than in 2024 [2]