Group 1: PMI Overview - In April, the manufacturing PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 49%, down from 50.5% in March[7] - The non-manufacturing PMI fell by 0.4 percentage points to 50.4%, compared to 50.8% in the previous month[7] - The new export orders index dropped significantly by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, indicating potential pressure on future exports[2] Group 2: Demand and Production Insights - The new orders index declined to 49.2%, while the production index remained near the threshold at 49.8%, suggesting weak demand but relatively high production levels[2] - Internal demand showed resilience, with the domestic orders index only down 2.3 percentage points to 49.9%[2] - Despite a decline in new export orders, foreign trade cargo volume increased by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year to 1.3%, attributed to prior "export rush" orders[2] Group 3: Sector Performance - Key sectors like high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing saw significant PMI declines of 0.8 and 2.4 percentage points, respectively, while the consumer goods sector's PMI fell only 0.6 percentage points to 49.4%[3] - The construction PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 51.9%, primarily due to a slowdown in real estate, although infrastructure construction accelerated[3] - The service sector PMI experienced a minor decline of 0.2 percentage points to 50.1%, supported by strong performance in productive service industries[4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The report highlights increased uncertainty in external demand due to tariff hikes, while emphasizing the need to monitor changes in domestic demand[4] - The central political bureau meeting in April stressed the importance of stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations, indicating potential support for domestic demand in manufacturing[4]

屠 强 资深高级宏观分析师 联系人： 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 4月30日，国家统计局公布4月PMI指数，制造业PMI为49%、前值50.5%；非制造业PMI为50.4%、 前值50.8%。 核心观点：4月新出口订单已明显下滑，但内需如基建与消费品行业PMI仍维持韧性。 4月PMI整体与分项读数均有走弱，但相对来看新订单指数更弱，生产仍维持较高水平。 4月制造业PMI 边际下行1.5pct至49%；剔除供应商配货指数的PMI也回落1.5pct。结构上生产、新订单指数均有回落，边 际分别下行2.8、2.6pct。由于PMI为环比指标，反映本月制造业景气度较上月的边际变化；产需对比看， 新订单指数下行至49.2%，而生产指数仍在荣枯线附近（49.8%），反映本月需求偏弱，生产景气水平相 对较高。 需求内部呈现分化特征，其中新出口订单指数降幅较大，但内需订单更具韧性。 生产景气相对较高的情 况下，4月外贸货运量同比上行0.7pct至1.3%，主因前期订单在"抢出口"；而4月新出口订单指数大幅回落 4.3pct至44.7%，或意味着后续出口有较大压力。对比之下，内需订单指数本月下滑2.3pct，但绝对水平仍 在荣枯 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 三类行业继续保持扩张态势 ——4 月 PMI 数据点评 ❖ PMI 数据：制造业 PMI 回落至荣枯线以下 4 月制造业 PMI 为 49.0%，前值为 50.5%。具体分项来看：1）PMI 生产指数 为 49.8%，前值为 52.6%，回落 2.8 个百分点。2）PMI 新订单指数为 49.2%， 前值为 51.8%。PMI 新出口订单指数为 44.7%，前值为 49.0%。3） PMI 从业 人员指数为 47.9%，前值为 48.2%。4）供货商配送时间指数为 50.2%，前值为 50.3%。5）PMI 原材料库存指数为 47.0%，前值为 47.2%。 其他行业：1）建筑业：建筑业商务活动指数为 51.9%，比上月下降 1.5 个百 分点。2）服务业：服务业商务活动指数为 50.1%，比上月下降 0.2 个百分点。 3）综合产出：4 月，综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2%，比上月下降 1.2 个百分点， 仍高于临界点。 ❖ PMI 点评：三类行业继续保持扩张态势 （一）外部环境急剧变化影响下，部分指标出现下滑 4 月，受前期制造业较快增长形成较高基数叠加 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In April, due to the US tariff policy, business production and operation activities slowed down significantly. Although the three major indices (manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index) slowed down, China's economy generally remained in an expansionary phase [3]. - On the demand side, external demand slowed down rapidly in the short term, while domestic demand rebounded. Policy support increased, but overall demand was still slowing. In production, industrial production decreased due to the slowdown in domestic and foreign demand, but it was expected to continue growing at a relatively high speed with the support of domestic demand policies. In terms of prices, domestic - demand - type commodity prices were weak, and external - demand - type commodity prices fluctuated [3]. Summary by Relevant Content Overall Economic Situation - In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49% (expected 49.8%, previous value 50.5%), the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.4% (expected 50.6%, previous value 50.8%), and the composite PMI was 50.2% (previous value 51.4%). All three indices decreased compared to the previous month, but the economy remained in an expansionary range [1][3][4]. - In domestic investment, real - estate sales improved, but investment recovery was slow; infrastructure investment accelerated due to the rapid issuance of special bonds; manufacturing investment maintained high - speed growth, but short - term restocking motivation weakened [3]. - Consumption growth accelerated significantly, strongly driving the economy. Exports decreased significantly due to tariff impacts on overseas demand, and future export growth was expected to slow further [3]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI fell to the contraction range and was lower than market expectations. The new order index was 49.2%, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in market demand. The production index was 49.8%, down 2.8 percentage points, showing a slight slowdown in production [3]. - The new export order index and import index were 44.7% and 43.4% respectively, down 4.3% and 4.1% from the previous month, indicating a significant decline in external demand due to tariffs and a decrease in import demand due to external shocks [3]. - The price index continued to decline. The main raw material purchase price index and the ex - factory price index were 47% and 44.8% respectively, down 2.8 and 3.1 percentage points from the previous month, mainly due to the US tariff policy and global economic uncertainties [3][4]. - Both the finished - product inventory index and the raw - material inventory index decreased. The finished - product inventory index dropped 0.7 percentage points to 47.3%, and the raw - material inventory index decreased 0.2 percentage points to 47% [4]. Non - manufacturing Sector - The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point. The service industry business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points, and the construction industry business activity index was 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points [4]. - In the service industry, sectors such as air transportation, telecommunications, and IT services were in a high - prosperity range, while sectors like water transportation and capital market services were below the critical point. In the construction industry, the civil engineering construction business activity index was 60.9%, up 6.4 percentage points [4]. - The service industry business activity expectation index was 56.4%, and the construction industry business activity expectation index was 53.8%, indicating that most enterprises in these two industries were confident about market development [4]. Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index was 50.2%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that overall business production and operation activities remained in an expansionary phase, although at a slower pace [4].

4月30日，国家统计局发布了2025年4月制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数、综合PMI产出指 数。其中，制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.0%，比上月下降1.5个百分点，回落至收缩区间。非制造业 商务活动指数为50.4%，比上月下降0.4个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为50.2%，比上月下降1.2个百分 点，均高于临界点。 4月PMI录得数据为49.0%，显示经济受外部冲击影响加大，扩内需紧迫性加强。笔者认为，美国发动的 全球新一轮关税战使我国外需承压，且内部有效需求仍显不足，下阶段需加快地方政府专项债券、超长 期特别国债等存量政策的发行使用，同时及时推出新型政策性金融工具等增量储备政策，更大力度支持 扩大内需、稳定外贸。 首先，从制造业采购经理调查指标体系的13个分类指数来看，制造业供需两端均回落，外需大幅走弱， 价格低位运行。具体来看： 1.供需两端回落：生产端，4月PMI生产指数为49.8%，比上月下降2.8个百分点；需求端，4月PMI新订 单指数为49.2%，比上月下降2.6个百分点，均跌入收缩区间； 2.外需大幅走弱：PMI新出口订单指数是出口的领先指标，4月PMI新出口订单指数为44.7% ...

2025 年 4 月 PMI 点评 4 月 PMI：盘点冲击信号 2025 年 04 月 30 日 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：zhongyumei@mszq.com 与此同时，4 月进口也受到较大冲击。4 月 PMI 进口指数环比降幅达 4.1pct，这 一降幅为 2020 年 5 月以来的最大降幅，同时也超过了"贸易冲突 1.0"时期 2.6pct 的最大降幅。 ➢ 维度二（间接影响）：供需两端同步放缓。4 月代表内需的 PMI 新订单指数 为 49.2%（环比-2.6pct），代表生产的 PMI 生产指数为 49.8%（环比-2.8pct）。 两个指标同时降至荣枯线之下，成为 4 月制造业 PMI 的两大拖累项，外部风险 的加剧对国内产需也造成一定负面影响。 ➢ 维度三（企业行为影响）：主动去库后的价格下跌。随着需求的走弱，企业 面对未来不确定性，更倾向于通过降价等方式加快对库存的"清理"，4 月 PMI 产成品库存指数下降 0.7pct 至 47.3%、同时 PMI 生产经营预期指数下降 1.7pct 均佐证了这一点。外部冲击下企业的主动去库行为导致 4 月 PMI 出厂价格指数 ...

• 1. 基本面：3月官方PMI为 50.5%，较2月上升0.3个百分点，3月财新PMI录得 51.2%，较2月上 升0.4个百分点，数据表现良好。宏观方面，OPEC+后期可能进一步增产，原油自4月初低点以来 有所反弹，中美关税谈判目前没有进一步消息，近日伊朗港口爆炸消息对市场有一定扰动，实际 影响预计有限。6月预计仍有较多新产能投放，产业链库存中性，需求端方面，农膜旺季结束， 小厂陆续停车，整体需求下滑，受关税影响制品出口需求预计减弱。当前LL交割品现货价7410 （-10），基本面整体偏空 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差288，升贴水比例4.0%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存57.9万吨（+2.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：LLDPE主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：塑料主力合约盘面震荡，农膜旺季结束需求减弱，新产能后期仍有投放，产业链库 存中性偏高，预计PE今日走势震荡 • LLDPE概述： • 利多 • 1、基差偏强 • 利空 • 1、新产能集中投放 • 2、加征关税影响需求 • 3 ...

Group 1 - China's April PMI will be released on April 30, indicating the economic activity level [1] - Domestic refined oil prices will be adjusted at midnight on April 30, with a mixed probability of price increase and stability. Year-to-date, there have been eight adjustments, resulting in a decrease of 425 yuan per ton for gasoline and 410 yuan per ton for diesel compared to the end of last year [1] - A total of 10 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked today, with a total unlock volume of 44.7 million shares, amounting to a market value of 767 million yuan [1] Group 2 - On April 30, 73 companies disclosed 76 stock repurchase progress reports, with 51 companies announcing new repurchase plans. The highest repurchase amounts were from China Railway, Weichai Power, and Zhongtai Securities, with proposed repurchase amounts of 1.6 billion yuan, 1 billion yuan, and 500 million yuan respectively [2] - Among the companies that had their repurchase plans approved by shareholders, WuXi AppTec, Hualu Hengsheng, and Yapu Co. had the highest proposed repurchase amounts of 1 billion yuan, 300 million yuan, and 200 million yuan respectively [2] - The highest repurchase amounts implemented were by Longqi Technology, Changfei Optical Fiber, and Guodian NARI, with repurchase amounts of 201 million yuan, 110 million yuan, and 99.9 million yuan respectively [2]

2025 年 4 月 28 日 本周热点前瞻 2025-04-28 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 4月29日 欧元区4月经济景气指数 点评：4月29日17:00，欧盟统计局将公布欧元区4月经济景气指数和工业景气指数。预期欧元区4月经济景 气指数为94.5，前值为95.2；预期欧元区4月工业景气指数为-10.7，前值为-10.6。如果欧元区4月经济景气指 数和工业景气指数均小幅低于前值，则将轻度抑制有色金属、原油及相关商品期货价格上涨，但是将轻度有助 于黄金和白银期货价格上涨。 声明 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作出投资决定并自主 承担投资风险，不应凭借本报告进行具体操作。 【本周重点关注】 4 月 29 日 22:00，美国谘商会将公布 4 月谘商会消费者信心指数。 4 月 30 日 09:30，国家统计 ...

中信证券：在贸易冲突背景下，预计从4月PMI开始，数据层面将逐步反映压力，适时降准降息时点临 近，收益率曲线先牛陡后牛平的概率更大。 ...