Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a rebound in May, with a notable increase in investor sentiment and a shift towards technology growth and domestic substitution themes, as indicated by various public fund institutions [1][2][4]. Market Performance - On May 6, the major indices rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3316.11 points, up 1.13%, and returning above 3300 points. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also saw gains of 1.84% and 1.97%, respectively [2]. - The market's trading volume exceeded 1.3 trillion yuan, with a total turnover of 13,644 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 171.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2]. Investment Opportunities - Fund companies suggest that May may present trading opportunities following a clearing of positions, with a focus on themes less sensitive to domestic and external demand performance. Key areas to watch include multi-modal AI, AI/AR glasses, innovative pharmaceuticals, and controllable nuclear fusion [3][4]. - The consensus among institutions is to adopt a balanced approach of "growth + value" in industry allocation, with a focus on high-certainty trends such as domestic substitution in technology and pharmaceuticals, as well as basic industrial products and military materials [8][9]. Policy and Economic Factors - The market is closely monitoring the impact of tariff issues, which have not yet eased, particularly affecting traditional labor-intensive industries. However, there are emerging structural opportunities, especially in sectors less reliant on exports [5][6]. - The expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June could lead to a weaker dollar, alleviating pressure on the renminbi and enhancing foreign investment in A-shares [6]. Sector Focus - Investment strategies should consider sectors with low export dependence and broad domestic markets, such as food and beverage and basic construction materials, which are expected to benefit from domestic consumption recovery and infrastructure demand [5][9]. - The technology growth sector, particularly in AI and renewable energy, is anticipated to experience valuation recovery as liquidity conditions improve [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a strong opening on the first trading day of May, with major indices rising significantly, indicating a potential recovery trend after a challenging April [1][4]. Market Performance - On May 1, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.13%, closing above 3300 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index increased by 1.84% and 1.97%, respectively [1]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 166.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. April Market Review - In April, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.70%, the Shenzhen Component by 5.75%, and the ChiNext Index by 7.40%, while the North Star 50 index rose by 4.72% [4]. - Among 31 primary industries, only four saw gains, with the top three being Beauty Care (6.15%), Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (3.39%), and Retail Trade (1.74%) [4]. - The largest decline was in the Power Equipment sector, which fell by 8.23%, followed by Communications (-6.69%) and Home Appliances (-5.65%) [4]. May Market Outlook - Institutions predict that the A-share market will maintain a volatile but controllable adjustment in May, with a focus on technology growth sectors [6][7]. - East Wu Securities suggests that the market may return to a technology growth focus, supported by macro liquidity and policy stability [7]. - Multiple institutions recommend focusing on sectors benefiting from domestic demand policies and those with favorable valuation characteristics [7]. Recommended Investment Strategies - Institutions emphasize the importance of technology and consumer sectors as key investment themes for May, with expectations of excess returns in technology [8]. - Suggested sectors include AI, robotics, and smart driving, as well as defensive positions in dividend-paying assets like banks [8]. - A table summarizing various brokerages' strategies highlights a focus on high-dividend stocks, gold, and sectors related to domestic consumption and technology [9]. Top Stock Picks for May - The most frequently recommended stocks include Proya (603605.SH) and Kaiying Network (002517.SZ), each mentioned six times by different brokerages [10][11]. - Other notable mentions include Haida Group (002311.SZ) and Gree Electric (000651.SZ), each recommended five times [10][11]. - Proya is recognized for its strong market position and growth potential in the domestic market, while Kaiying Network is noted for its impressive revenue growth and strategic initiatives in AI [12][15].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced significant shocks and recovery in April, with a phase of pessimistic pricing regarding tariffs easing, leading to a focus on policy expectations and performance [1] - Growth stocks significantly lagged behind consumer and cyclical stocks, primarily due to the impact of tariffs and seasonal valuation adjustments during earnings season [1] - Looking ahead to May, there is a favorable environment for style rotation and calendar effects, suggesting a shift towards technology and industry as core considerations, while also considering mid-cap stocks with decent performance [1] Group 2 - The first phase of the US-China trade agreement may be reached in early May, which could exert pressure on China's foreign trade under the current tariff levels [2] - In terms of industry allocation, after the easing of tariff shocks, there may still be disturbances, with domestic policies expected to support a temporary increase in risk appetite [2] - The technology sector has seen a significant adjustment since late February, and despite external shocks, domestic technological independence and industry development remain strong trends [2] Group 3 - The pharmaceutical industry is currently at relatively low valuation levels, with significant changes in the environment for innovative drug procurement policies, potentially opening up valuation ceilings [2] - The geopolitical uncertainties and potential risks to global economic stability from the "America First" policy have increased the allocation value of defensive assets such as gold and military defense [3] - Continuous attention is recommended for the allocation opportunities in defense, food security, and gold assets during sensitive periods of global economic monetary policy [3]

宏观策略·掘金 年报一季报总结电话会议 20250504 摘要 • 一季度受益于抢出口，中国经济增速达 5.4%，出口增速显著，但 4 月美 国订单锐减。尽管转口贸易支撑了 4 月出口，但美国经济软数据衰退预示 外需疲软，预计 6 月出口将明显下降，三季度压力或将增大。 • 企业普遍预期关税不会持久，因美国短期内难寻替代产能且消费习惯难改。 特朗普已释放积极信号，中美或通过非美国家间接博弈，中国正深化与欧 洲等关系，中美谈判时间表或将确定。 • 关税增加导致中国企业出口成本上升，尤其影响电子、家电等全球营销产 品。应对策略包括转嫁成本、产能转移至东南亚/印度、转口贸易、建立海 外仓及拆分产品价值等避税手段。 • 中国企业正采取多元化市场战略和深度本土化措施，通过在东南亚、印度 等地建厂供应美国市场，同时保留中国作为全球供应中心，以降低单一市 场依赖并增强抗风险能力。 • 2025 年一季度 A 股盈利改善，全 A 非金融板块累计同比增速显著提升， 但单季度营收仍有波动。创业板盈利明显改善，科创 50 业绩加速下滑， TMT 板块表现优秀，传统消费行业相对优异。 Q&A 美国关税政策对中国企业的影响如何，以及企 ...

节前最后一个交易日市场震荡分化，三大指数涨跌不一，沪深两市当日成交额1.17万亿；6日开盘，A股 三大股迎来五月开门红，上证指数涨0.49%报3295.25点；深证成指涨0.75%报9974.53点；创业板指涨 0.97%报1966.97点；沪深300涨0.63%报3794.38点；科创50涨0.4%报1016.44点；北证50涨1.32%报 1348.69点 中信建投指出，展望五月，市场中期或将继续处于震荡格局，但短期风险偏好呈现边际改善迹象，或推 动市场风格阶段性转向成长。市场或呈现"成长-避险-消费"阶段性轮动特征。中期建议重点关注具备内 需驱动和成长弹性特征的"新质内需成长"方向，短期重点关注科技成长与服务消费。包括：电子、机械 设备、计算机、汽车、家电、农林牧渔、商贸零售、美容护理、社会服务等。 来源：读创财经综合 盘面上，超聚变服务器、日用陶瓷、金属成形机床、高压直流输电HVDC、数据运维、棉纺、体育彩 票、配套设备、软件外包服务（ITO）、电源设备等涨幅居前。建筑信息化、重组胶原蛋白、蜜雪冰城 概念、院线、MR（磁共振成像系统）、客车、酒店及餐饮、百货商场、汽车玻璃、碳交易所等跌幅居 前。贵金属 ...

凤凰网财经讯 5月6日，A股三大指数高开，沪指涨0.49％，深成指涨0.75％，创业板涨0.97％。黄金、 稀土永磁、消费电子、服务器、CPO、算力、机器人、6G、金融科技指数纷纷走强；PEEK材料、宠物 经济、零售概念股走弱。 外围市场： 中金公司研报指出，商务部数据显示，五一假期全国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额同比增长6.3%，增速 相较2024年国庆（4.5%）、2025年春节（5.4%）呈环比提速；各省市及线上平台发布的消费数据显 示，长线游、出入境游均有亮眼表现，同时品类上以旧换新备受欢迎，演唱会、潮玩等体验型消费亦表 现较好。展望后续，继续看好消费提振政策逐步显效，全年居民消费需求持续释放。 ②中信建投：短期重点关注科技成长与服务消费 中信建投研报指出，展望五月，市场中期或将继续处于震荡格局，但短期风险偏好呈现边际改善迹象， 或推动市场风格阶段性转向成长。市场或呈现"成长-避险-消费"阶段性轮动特征。中期建议重点关注具 备内需驱动和成长弹性特征的"新质内需成长"方向，短期重点关注科技成长与服务消费。包括：电子、 机械设备、计算机、汽车、家电、农林牧渔、商贸零售、美容护理、社会服务等。 ③中泰证券：红利 ...

Group 1 - A-share market is expected to experience a volatile recovery in May, with a focus on structural opportunities, particularly in technology growth and domestic consumption [1][6] - The performance of A-shares is likely to improve post-holiday, driven by a rebound in global markets and a decrease in tariff impacts [2][6][7] - The automotive sector is seeing various promotional activities, with some models offering discounts exceeding 50,000 yuan, which may stimulate consumption in the second quarter [3] Group 2 - Over 74% of listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reported profits for 2024, indicating resilience in corporate performance [4][13] - The financial sector achieved a net profit of 2.7 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 10.3% year-on-year growth [4] - The net inflow of funds into ETFs has reached approximately 270 billion yuan this year, highlighting their role in stabilizing the market [5] Group 3 - The trend of data assets being included in financial statements is accelerating, with the number of participating companies increasing from 17 to 92 and the disclosed scale rising to 2.495 billion yuan [11] - More than 40 A-share companies are planning to list in Hong Kong, driven by policy support and the attractiveness of the Hong Kong market [12] Group 4 - Recent institutional research has focused on export-oriented companies and their strategies to cope with external pressures, emphasizing the importance of core competitiveness [10] - The overall revenue of A-share listed companies reached approximately 72 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a steady improvement in performance [13]

Global Market Overview - During the May Day holiday, global markets mostly rose, with the Hang Seng Technology Index leading gains at over 3% [1][14]. - The US stock market also saw significant increases, with the Nasdaq rising nearly 3% and the S&P 500 achieving its longest winning streak in 21 years [2][20]. - Commodity prices generally fell, with oil prices dropping around 3% and gold also weakening, while agricultural products saw an overall increase [15][16]. US Economic Indicators - The US non-farm payroll data for April exceeded expectations, with an increase of 177,000 jobs, alleviating concerns about the economy and tariffs [23][24]. - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, and wage growth showed signs of slowing, which may influence Federal Reserve policy [23][24]. - The US dollar index rose above 100 points, supported by strong employment data and reduced expectations for interest rate cuts [17][18]. Domestic Consumption Trends - The May Day holiday saw a significant increase in cross-regional travel, with an estimated 1.42 billion trips, marking a year-on-year growth of approximately 4.5% [29]. - The tourism market was notably vibrant, with a surge in long-distance travel and a significant increase in domestic flight bookings [30][31]. - However, box office revenues during the holiday period saw a sharp decline of 51.6% year-on-year, totaling 515 million yuan [32]. Industry Developments - Xiaomi launched its first open-source reasoning model, MiMo, which outperformed larger models in mathematical reasoning tasks [41][42]. - Apple is collaborating with Anthropic to develop an AI platform for software coding, aiming to enhance internal workflows [48]. - Momenta and Uber have formed a strategic partnership to commercialize Robotaxi services in international markets, starting in Europe in 2026 [49]. Policy and Regulatory Updates - The Chinese government is evaluating the sincerity of the US in tariff negotiations, emphasizing the need for concrete actions from the US side [38]. - The Ministry of Finance in China is advocating for a more proactive fiscal policy to support economic growth and stability [39][40]. - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has revised the index compilation scheme for the ChiNext board, introducing an ESG negative exclusion mechanism [34][35]. Market Outlook - The market outlook remains positive for growth sectors, with expectations of a shift back to technology and growth stocks as external tariff impacts diminish [55][56]. - Key areas of focus include robotics, artificial intelligence, domestic computing power supply chains, military electronics, innovative pharmaceuticals, and low-altitude economy [55][56].

Group 1 - The overall market view indicates that the impact of overseas tariffs is weakening, and the A-share market is expected to experience fluctuations upward, with a focus on growth rebounds [3][11][15] - The banking sector's quarterly reports fell short of expectations, raising concerns about the sustainability of dividends, leading to a rapid disbanding of bank stock groups [3][15] - The report highlights the active performance of technology growth themes, particularly in sectors like AI, robotics, and autonomous driving, while emphasizing the importance of self-controllable industries such as semiconductors and military technology [3][15] Group 2 - The report lists the top ten stocks for May, including companies from various sectors such as electronics, AI, media, and automotive, with no specific ranking [4][10] - The electronic sector includes Zhishang Technology and Xingchen Technology, both showing significant revenue growth driven by market demand and technological advancements [17][20] - The computer & AI & internet sector features Mai Xinlin, which has seen rapid revenue growth due to its comprehensive computing services and strategic partnerships in the AI field [24][27] Group 3 - The media and new consumption sector includes Yaoji Technology, which is focusing on revitalizing its core businesses and leveraging AI to enhance its gaming and marketing services [34][36] - The small and mid-cap sector features Weike Technology, which reported robust revenue growth and is expanding its overseas production capacity [38][39] - The automotive sector highlights Rongtai Co., which is solidifying its position as a leader in steering systems and expanding into the humanoid robotics market [42][45] Group 4 - The electric power equipment sector includes Landai Technology, which has turned profitable with significant growth in its new energy transmission business [47][50] - The pharmaceutical sector features Yipin Hong, which is facing challenges with declining revenues and profits, indicating a need for strategic adjustments [51]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a return to technology growth in May 2025, focusing on three main investment directions [2][5] - The recommended "golden stocks" for May include companies from various sectors such as technology, environmental services, defense, and healthcare, with detailed financial metrics provided [3][68] - The report highlights the importance of macroeconomic factors such as "loose monetary policy" and "weak dollar" in influencing market styles, favoring small-cap growth stocks [5][6] Group 2 - For the computer sector, the report recommends Shen Sanda A, citing its strong position in AI infrastructure and data services, with expected revenue growth driven by government and state-owned enterprise demand [10][11] - In the environmental services sector, Hanlan Environment is highlighted for its potential revenue growth and improved cash flow due to ongoing debt resolution and operational efficiency [15][16] - The defense sector's Steel Research High-tech is projected to benefit from increasing market demand for high-temperature alloys, with significant profit growth anticipated [20][23] Group 3 - The report identifies Xiaoshangpin City in the commerce sector as a key player in the small commodity trade, benefiting from the growth of the Yiwu market and new business opportunities in cross-border e-commerce [29][31] - Horizon Robotics is noted for its advanced autonomous driving solutions, with a significant market opportunity as the penetration of high-level autonomous vehicles increases [36][40] - BeiGene is recognized for its innovative drug pipeline, particularly the growth of its core product, with expectations of substantial revenue increases in the coming years [44][45] Group 4 - The report discusses the electronic sector's Jingzhida, which is positioned to capture market share in storage testing machines, with significant growth potential as domestic demand increases [54][55] - In the new energy sector, Sanhua Intelligent Control is highlighted for its strategic partnerships with major automotive manufacturers, anticipating strong profit growth driven by electric vehicle demand [56][57] - Huichuan Technology is noted for its advancements in automation and robotics, with expectations of increased market share and profitability as the industry recovers [62][63]