（原标题：深夜突发！美联储，降息大消息！） 9月降息生变 21日晚间，美联储发生了多件大事。 第一，美国司法部计划调查美联储理事丽莎·库克。一名司法部高官周四致信美联储主席鲍威尔，告知 此项调查并敦促他将库克移出理事会。 【导读】美联储9月降息，不再板上钉钉！ 中国基金报记者 泰勒 美联储9月降息的预期，今晚发生了变 化！大家好，继续关注海外市场的表现。 美股震荡下跌 8月21日晚间，美股三大指数小幅下跌，标普 500指数连续第五天下滑。 沃尔玛股价下跌逾4%，尽管该零售商的季度销售额超出华尔街预期，但利润未达预期，这是自2022年5 月以来首次季度盈利未达标。 投资者正等待美联储主席鲍威尔周五在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔年度经济研讨会上发表讲话，他可能会就利 率路径提供线索。根据CME的FedWatch工具，联邦基金期货显示市场认为美联储在9月会议上降息的可 能性约为70%。 美联储7月会议纪要显示，决策者对劳动力市场和通胀状况表示担忧，但大多数人认为现在降息为时过 早。理事克里斯托弗·沃勒和米歇尔·鲍曼反对维持利率不变，这是自1993年以来首次有两位理事同时投 反对票。 RGA投资公司首席投资官里克·加德纳表示： ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September has changed, with market participants closely monitoring upcoming statements from Fed officials for guidance on future monetary policy [1][10]. Market Performance - U.S. stock markets experienced slight declines, with the S&P 500 index falling for the fifth consecutive day, down by 0.39% [2][3]. - Walmart's stock dropped over 4% despite exceeding quarterly sales expectations, marking the first time since May 2022 that its quarterly profit fell short of forecasts [3]. Federal Reserve Insights - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 70% probability of a rate cut at the September meeting, reflecting market sentiment [5]. - Minutes from the July Federal Reserve meeting revealed concerns among policymakers regarding the labor market and inflation, with most members believing it is too early for a rate cut [7][12]. - Notably, two Fed governors voted against maintaining the current interest rate, a first since 1993, indicating internal divisions on monetary policy [7]. Individual Stock Movements - Chinese stocks saw significant gains, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising over 1%. Notable performers included XPeng, which surged over 13%, and NIO, which increased by over 10% [7][9]. - XPeng's co-founder and CEO, He Xiaopeng, purchased 3.1 million shares of the company at an average price of HKD 80.49, increasing his stake to approximately 18.9% [7]. Federal Reserve Officials' Stance - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester expressed opposition to a rate cut, citing persistent inflation concerns [11]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic indicated that only one rate cut this year would be appropriate, emphasizing the need for a consistent policy direction [13].

标普全球市场情报首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson表示："8月强劲的PMI初值进一步印证美国企业在 第三季度表现亮眼，数据显示经济正以2.5%的年化速度扩张，高于上半年平均1.3%。他指出，制造业 和服务业需求均增强，但企业难以满足销售增长，未完成订单以2022年初以来最快速度上升，制成品库 存亦创新高，部分源于对未来供应的担忧。需求回升带动招聘激增，增强了企业的定价能力，企业正更 大规模地将关税带来的成本上涨转嫁给客户。报告显示，投入成本指数升至三个月高点62.3，商品和服 务售价升至三年来最高，通胀压力明显升温。随着商品和服务价格上涨，消费者通胀未来几个月可能进 一步超过美联储2%的目标，PMI数据已更接近"加息区间"。" 数据公布后，市场对美联储今年两次降息的押注有所降温。美股三大指数盘中震荡，道指跌0.32%，纳 指跌0.15%，标普500指数跌0.24%。整体来看，美国经济在制造业复苏与服务业稳健支撑下，第三季度 开局强劲，但通胀回升可能使政策前景趋紧。 数据显示，标普全球8月美国综合PMI产出指数升至55.4，高于7月的55.1，为去年12月以来最高水平， 并显著高于荣枯线50，显示 ...

新华财经北京8月21日电（王姝睿）受英国8月超预期的PMI数据提振，投资者认为英国央行在2025年再 次降息的可能性降低。 数据显示，英国8月综合采购经理人指数（PMI）初值升至53.0，创2024年8月以来最高水平，远超预期 值51.6。此次增长主要由服务业强劲反弹推动，服务业PMI从7月的51.8升至53.6。英国企业对未来一年 的商业活动预期达到2024年10月以来最乐观水平。 凯投宏观认为，英国商业活动表现强劲的迹象增加了英国央行更长时间维持利率不变的可能性。根据周 四公布的商业调查，本月经济活动加快，显示英国私营部门的活力强于此前预期。 S&P Global首席商业经济学家克里斯·威廉姆森表示，数据表明英国经济在夏季加速增长，订单数据仍 显示需求环境"不平衡且脆弱"。企业报告称，他们对近期政府政策变化的影响表示担忧，同时也对更广 泛的地缘政治不确定性感到不安。由于4月雇主工资税和最低工资上调，企业劳动力成本增加，各行业 均在裁员，但裁员速度较7月有所放缓。 尽管整体数据向好，但英国8月制造业PMI跌至47.3，为三个月以来新低，并连续第五个月低于50荣枯 线，反映出全球贸易环境对其造成的影响。 英国 ...

Group 1 - Several village banks in Zhejiang, Guizhou, and Jilin have announced reductions in deposit interest rates, with decreases ranging from 10 to 20 basis points [1] - Jiangsu Bank has lowered its three-year fixed deposit rate from 1.85% to 1.75%, a reduction of 10 basis points, while Zhejiang Shengzhou Ruifeng Village Bank has reduced its five-year fixed deposit rate to 1.3% [1] - The four major banks' two-year, three-year, and five-year deposit rates are currently at 1.05%, 1.25%, and 1.30%, respectively, which were adjusted in May [1] Group 2 - The trend of interest rate cuts typically starts with large banks lowering their deposit rates, followed by smaller banks [3] - Smaller banks have been quicker to follow the rate cuts initiated by larger banks, with some even offering lower rates than the major banks, such as Beijing Huairou Rongxing Village Bank's three-year and five-year rates at 1.20% [4] Group 3 - A new round of interest rate cuts may be on the horizon as smaller banks have nearly completed their adjustments [5] - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has remained unchanged for three consecutive months, leading to speculation about potential rate cuts in September [6] Group 4 - The likelihood of a rate cut in September hinges on two main factors: the actions of the Federal Reserve and domestic economic data [8] - The Federal Reserve has maintained its interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% as of July, with employment and inflation data being critical indicators for future rate decisions [10] Group 5 - Market analysis suggests a 92% probability of a rate cut in September, with expectations of a 25 basis point reduction, potentially increasing to 50 basis points if employment data worsens [10] - Warren Buffett's recent investments in housing-related stocks indicate a belief that lower interest rates are forthcoming, which could signal a turning point for the housing industry [13] Group 6 - Domestic economic data shows underperformance, with July's consumption growth at 3.7%, industrial value-added growth at 5.7%, and fixed asset investment growth at only 1.6%, all below market expectations [14][15] - The reliance on exports is insufficient to support economic growth, and uncertainties in exports further complicate the outlook for September's LPR adjustments [15]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's bond market is experiencing a sell-off due to concerns over fiscal conditions and persistent inflation, leading to a surge in long-term government bond yields to their highest levels in a decade [1][3]. Group 1: Bond Yield Trends - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds rose to 1.61%, the highest since October 2008, while the 20-year yield reached 2.655%, the highest since 1999, and the 30-year yield climbed to 3.18%, nearing the historical high of 3.2% set in July [1][2]. - As of 8 PM Beijing time, the 10-year yield was reported at 1.611%, the 20-year yield at 2.645%, and the 30-year yield at 3.191% [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Bond Yields - The primary driver for the rise in long-term bond yields is investor expectations of new fiscal stimulus measures following the ruling coalition's loss in the July Senate elections, which will increase Japan's already high debt levels [2][3]. - Persistent inflation in Japan has raised the likelihood of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, further pushing up bond yields [3][6]. Group 3: Foreign Investment Trends - In July, net purchases of Japanese government bonds by foreign investors dropped to 480 billion yen (approximately 3.3 billion USD), only one-third of the amount purchased in June [3][4]. - Despite high yields, foreign investor demand for Japanese bonds has waned since July, reflecting concerns over fiscal imbalances and the Bank of Japan's gradual exit from the bond market [6][8]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The bond market is facing a significant demand drop, described as "catastrophic," due to rising inflation and potential fiscal stimulus, which increases the burden on Japan's already high leverage [3][7]. - Experts suggest that if the sell-off continues, the Bank of Japan may intervene to stabilize the market, potentially through liquidity injections or adjustments to its monetary policy [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - Japan's bond market is experiencing a sell-off due to concerns over fiscal conditions and persistent inflation, leading to a surge in long-term government bond yields to their highest levels in a decade [1][3]. Group 1: Bond Yield Trends - On August 21, Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.61%, the highest since October 2008, while the 20-year yield reached 2.655%, a record since 1999, and the 30-year yield climbed to 3.18%, nearing the historical high of 3.2% set in July [1][2]. - As of 8 PM Beijing time, the 10-year yield was reported at 1.611%, the 20-year yield at 2.645%, and the 30-year yield at 3.191% [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Yield Increases - The primary driver for the rise in long-term bond yields is investor expectations of new fiscal stimulus measures following the ruling coalition's losses in the July Senate elections, which will increase Japan's already high debt levels [2][5]. - Persistent inflation in Japan has raised the likelihood of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, further pushing up bond yields [3][5]. Group 3: Foreign Investment Trends - In July, net purchases of Japanese government bonds by foreign investors dropped to 480 billion yen (approximately 3.3 billion USD), only one-third of June's total, indicating a significant decline in demand [3][6]. - Despite earlier strong demand, the trend has shifted due to concerns over inflation exceeding targets and potential fiscal imbalances, compounded by the Bank of Japan's gradual exit from the bond market [6][8]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The bond market has faced a significant drop in demand, described as "disastrous," with both yield levels and bidding multiples reflecting this trend [5]. - Analysts suggest that the long-term outlook for Japanese government bond yields remains upward, influenced by the Bank of Japan's reduced bond purchases and the normalization of monetary policy [9][10]. - If the decline in bond prices continues, intervention from the Bank of Japan is likely, potentially through liquidity injections or adjustments to monetary policy [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to announce a new monetary policy framework aimed at addressing the current high inflation environment and redefining the balance between price stability and employment promotion [1][2]. Inflation and Employment Market Changes - Since 2020, the global economy has faced unprecedented shocks, leading the Federal Reserve to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy framework focused on ensuring broad and inclusive employment growth before inflation concerns [2]. - The post-pandemic economic recovery has not been smooth, resulting in the highest inflation rates in decades, which has forced the Federal Reserve to reassess its policy objectives [2]. - Currently, the inflation rate in the U.S. has reached its highest level in 40 years, significantly impacting the lives of ordinary citizens and presenting challenges for businesses [2]. Key Content of the New Framework - The new framework is expected to prioritize inflation control, indicating that the Federal Reserve will closely monitor inflation data and may implement stricter monetary policy measures if necessary [3]. - The framework will not completely abandon the "inclusive employment" concept from 2020 but will aim to promote healthy employment growth based on inflation control [3]. - The new framework may revert to a "classic inflation targeting" approach, directly focusing on a 2% inflation target, which could enhance policy transparency and predictability, thereby boosting market confidence [3]. Impact of Policy Adjustments - The announcement of the new framework is likely to have profound effects on financial markets, with a significant reduction in the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the short term, potentially affecting bond and stock market performance [4]. - The implementation of the new framework may influence the prices of safe-haven assets like gold, as high inflation typically drives demand for gold as a hedge, but successful inflation control could lead to decreased demand and lower prices [4]. - The new framework will also impact the international monetary system, as the Federal Reserve's policy moves are closely monitored by other central banks, potentially prompting them to adjust their monetary policies in response to high inflation and employment challenges [4].

在另一场采访中，施密德表示，7月生产者价格指数(PPI)显示批发通胀以三年来最快的速度加速， 这"有点令人吃惊"。他指出，政策制定者将在本月晚些时候以及9月会议前密切关注消费者价格数据。 除了施密德之外，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克也认为当前的货币政策"是略微限制性的、而不是高度限 制性的"。他表示，美联储应该能够在2026年的某个时候将利率降至中性水平——即利率既不刺激经济 也不抑制经济的水平。他还表示，他对利率的看法仍是今年仅进行一次降息。 在经济前景不确定的情况下，博斯蒂克席位利率的轨迹保持单一方向，而不是在加息和降息之间摇摆。 他预计，今年晚些时候会对经济前景有更多清晰的判断。 智通财经APP获悉，堪萨斯城联储主席施密德(Jeff Schmid)表示，他认为通胀风险略高于劳动力市场风 险。尽管如此，在政策制定者考虑下月是否调整利率之际，货币政策总体上处于合适的位置。 施密德表示："当你逐渐接近双重目标的最佳数值时，实际上在边际上决定政策利率应该走向哪里会变 得更加困难。"他表示，当前围绕何时降息的辩论核心在于个别政策制定者是否认为政策过于紧缩。他 补充称："我认为它们是略微限制性的。""我认为我们走在一条 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Reaction - On August 21, gold prices experienced a sudden drop, with London gold falling over $20, settling at $3331.38 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.5% [1] Group 2: US-EU Trade Agreement - On August 21, the White House announced that the US and EU reached an agreement on a trade framework, which includes 19 key points covering various sectors such as agricultural products, automobiles, aircraft, semiconductor chips, energy, and digital trade barriers [3] - The agreement stipulates that the EU will eliminate tariffs on all US industrial products and provide preferential market access for US agricultural products, including nuts, dairy, fresh and processed fruits and vegetables, processed foods, seeds, soybean oil, and meat products [3] - The US will apply the higher of the Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariff rate or a 15% tariff rate on most goods from the EU, which includes automobiles, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and timber [3] Group 3: Future Tariff Adjustments - Starting September 1, 2025, the US will only apply MFN tariffs to certain EU products, including non-renewable natural resources, all aircraft and aircraft parts, and generic drugs and their raw materials [4] - The US and EU have agreed to consider additional sectors and products that are important to their economies and value chains for inclusion under MFN tariffs [4] Group 4: Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes Impact - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicated concerns among officials regarding the inflation outlook in the US, leading to reduced market expectations for a rate cut in September [5] - The minutes revealed that many officials noted the overall inflation rate in the US remains above the long-term target of 2%, with tariff impacts becoming more evident in economic data [6] - During the July monetary policy meeting, 9 out of 12 voting members supported maintaining interest rates, while two members expressed differing opinions on the decision, marking a notable occurrence in over 30 years [6]