国泰君安期货研究所· 海 外 研 究 戴璐 Z0021475 国泰君安期货·君研海外 基本面、降息预期和"AI泡沫" ——透视当前海外三大风险点 资料来源：Bloomberg，国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures (本报告感谢杨藤贡献） 日期：2025年11月24 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 三大逻辑点落地，市场如何定价？ 11月以来，全球市场经历较多地缘、宏观和产业逻辑的冲击，主要大类资产表现整体呈现几个特征：1）科技板块引领Risk-on，权益 转向防御；2）缺乏明显有效的避险资产，贵金属高位回落，全球国债市场表现不佳；3）年底市场微观流动性不佳，上风险情绪有限 非官方就业指标指向了本次非农数据改善，制造业PMI、服务业PMI、中小 企业就业和CB就业分项集合指数有改善 当前海外市场的波动源自三大逻辑点：1）经济基本面如何？2）基于基本面，对于短期（12月）和远期（2026年）的降息预期如 何？3）从"AI 泡沫"这一更务虚的叙事，转为对AI投资持续 ...

Group 1 - The macroeconomic disturbances last week primarily revolved around the possibility of interest rate cuts, with the market initially pricing in a higher likelihood of no cuts in December, but later data from the labor market raised expectations for potential cuts [2][6] - Precious metals experienced a pullback, with COMEX gold down 0.53% and silver down 1.47%, while copper prices also saw fluctuations, with COMEX copper down 1.07% [4][6] - The market for copper showed signs of increased downstream purchasing after a price correction, although overall consumption remained lukewarm, with expectations for next year's supply and demand dynamics influencing current pricing [10][55] Group 2 - The gold and silver markets entered an adjustment phase, with prices fluctuating in response to changing interest rate expectations, particularly after comments from Federal Reserve officials indicated potential for rate cuts [8][28] - COMEX copper prices exhibited a volatile pattern, maintaining a contango structure, with significant inventory levels indicating ongoing supply dynamics that may affect future pricing strategies [10][11] - The copper concentrate treatment charge (TC) index showed a slight decline, with market participants awaiting the results of year-end negotiations that could influence future pricing and demand [16][19] Group 3 - The overall inventory levels for precious metals decreased, with COMEX gold inventory down approximately 620,000 ounces and COMEX silver inventory down about 1,497,000 ounces [43] - The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 3.4 tons, while SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 39 tons, indicating shifting investor sentiment in the precious metals market [48] - The copper market is expected to maintain resilience through the end of the year, with supply-demand dynamics remaining favorable despite current price fluctuations [55]

消息面上，据央视新闻，当地时间11月23日，美国白宫发布联合声明称，美国与乌克兰代表团就结束俄 乌冲突"28点"新计划举行会谈。声明称，此轮会谈"成效显著"。美联储政策方面，纽约联储主席约翰· 威廉姆斯将当前政策描述为"适度限制性"，并于上周五表示美联储在近期存在降息空间。然而其他联储 官员仍持鹰派立场，达拉斯联储主席洛莉·洛根主张暂时维持政策利率不变。 银河期货分析指出，美联储内部对降息的分歧加剧，美元指数在高位对贵金属形成压力，但降息预期仍 存，贵金属下行空间有限，市场等待美国11月PMI等重要经济数据指引方向。 11月24日，受地缘冲突缓和，美联储鸽派言论双重因素交织，金价延续震荡，盘中跌破4040美元后小幅 回升。截至A股收盘，COMEX黄金期货跌0.67%报4052.3美元/盎司。黄金相关ETF产品涨跌分化，黄金 ETF华夏（518850）涨0.25%，黄金股ETF（159562）涨跌持平，有色金属ETF基金（516650）跌 0.67%。 每日经济新闻 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold price continues to fluctuate due to a combination of easing geopolitical tensions and dovish comments from the Federal Reserve, with COMEX gold futures dropping 0.67% to $4052.3 per ounce as of the close of A-shares [1] Market Performance - Gold-related ETFs show mixed performance: 华夏 Gold ETF (518850) increased by 0.25%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) remained flat, and the Non-ferrous Metals ETF (516650) decreased by 0.67% [1] Geopolitical Developments - On November 23, the U.S. White House announced a joint statement indicating significant progress in talks between the U.S. and Ukrainian delegations regarding a new 28-point plan to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] Federal Reserve Policy - New York Fed President John Williams described the current policy as "moderately restrictive" and indicated potential room for interest rate cuts in the near future, while other Fed officials maintain a hawkish stance, with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan advocating for keeping the policy rate unchanged [1] Market Analysis - Galaxy Futures analysis highlights increasing divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, with the high dollar index putting pressure on precious metals; however, expectations for rate cuts limit the downside potential for precious metals as the market awaits key economic data such as the November PMI from the U.S. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro sentiment is weak, LME inventory is gradually recovering, and the domestic demand side is in the off - season. Zinc prices are under pressure and may remain weakly consolidated in the short term. Considering the continuous decline of TC, the support from the raw material end is strong, and there is a certain production cut expectation for smelters in the future. It is expected that the downside space of zinc prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the support level of 22,000 - 22,200 yuan/ton. Previous short positions can consider step - by - step stop - profit, and wait for opportunities to participate in long positions after the callback [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 zinc ingot average price decreased by 0.22% to 22,370 yuan/ton; Shanghai zinc main contract closing price dropped by 0.13% to 22,395 yuan/ton; London zinc closing price (electronic trading) declined by 0.75% to 2,992 US dollars/ton [13]. 3.2 TC Continues to Decline, Pay Attention to Ingot - End Start - up 3.2.1 Zinc Concentrate - As of November 21, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 150,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared with the previous period. The total inventory of 7 ports was 274,200 tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons compared with the previous period. The CZSPT's latest quarterly meeting announced that the guidance price range for the purchase of imported zinc concentrate in US dollars before the end of the first quarter of 2026 is 105 - 120 US dollars/dry ton (average) [30][32]. - As of November 20, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 5,288 yuan/metal ton. In October, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 340,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.56% and a year - on - year increase of 2.97%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 4.3489 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 36.59% [39]. - Domestic TC and imported TC continued to decline. On November 21, 2025, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 2,350 yuan/metal ton, and the imported index was 73.05 US dollars/dry ton [40][43]. 3.2.2 Refined Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated and declined, and TC decreased. The production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to decline. As of November 20, the production profit of refined zinc enterprises was - 1,428 yuan/ton. Due to the pressure of raw material stockpiling and the continuous decline of processing fees, it is expected that the zinc ingot output in November will slightly decline to about 610,000 tons [44][49]. - The import profit window of refined zinc was closed. As of November 21, the import profit of refined zinc was - 4,164.59 yuan/ton. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 277,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 100,600 tons [50][54]. 3.3 Orders are Light, Galvanizing Start - up Declines 3.3.1 Galvanizing - The galvanizing enterprise start - up rate decreased by 0.42 percentage points to 57.17%. In the off - season of consumption, demand declined, and the black prices were always low, so the downstream's willingness to stock up was low. Some galvanizing enterprises reduced their start - up to avoid excessive finished product inventory [60][62]. - The raw material inventory of galvanizing enterprises increased. At the beginning of the week, zinc prices declined, and galvanizing enterprises picked up goods at the spot price more frequently, resulting in an obvious accumulation of raw material inventory. The finished product inventory of galvanizing enterprises also increased. Due to poor demand and general downstream purchases, the finished product inventory accumulated [63][65]. 3.4 Poor Demand, Slight Fluctuation in Die - Casting Zinc Alloy Start - up 3.4.1 Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - The prices of zinc alloys declined. The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy decreased by 0.22% to 23,115 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy dropped by 0.21% to 23,665 yuan/ton [71][73]. - The start - up rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises increased by 0.72 percentage points to 51.02%. The resumption of production of some enterprises during the week drove a slight increase in start - up. However, the terminal market was generally dull, and it is expected that the start - up may decline in the future [74][76]. - The raw material inventory of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises increased. The decline of the zinc price center during the week led alloy factories to replenish inventory at low prices, driving an increase in raw material inventory. The finished product inventory of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased. Downstream enterprises replenished inventory at low prices, resulting in a slight reduction of finished product inventory [77][79]. 3.5 Some Enterprises Increase Production, Slight Increase in Zinc Oxide Start - up 3.5.1 Zinc Oxide - The price of zinc oxide remained flat compared with the previous period. The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,500 yuan/ton [85]. - The start - up rate of zinc oxide enterprises increased by 0.94 percentage points to 57.25%. The increase in production of some enterprises drove an increase in start - up. However, from the current demand side, the demand for rubber - grade and electronic - grade products slowed down, and it is expected that the start - up will be difficult to increase significantly in the future [86][88]. - The raw material inventory of zinc oxide enterprises decreased. Some raw material prices were still high, and enterprises maintained just - in - time purchases, resulting in a slight fluctuation of raw material inventory. The finished product inventory of zinc oxide enterprises slightly decreased. The accelerated delivery rhythm of some terminal customers drove the reduction of finished product inventory, but there are still certain risks on the demand side in the future [89][91]. 3.6 Purchase at Low Prices, Decline in Zinc Ingot Social Inventory 3.6.1 Inventory - As of November 20, the three - place inventory of SMM zinc ingots was 144,500 tons, and the inventory continued to decline. The decline of the zinc price center during the week led downstream enterprises to replenish inventory at low prices, resulting in a decline in zinc ingot social inventory. As of November 20, the inventory in the SMM zinc ingot bonded area was 36,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared with the previous period [97][99]. - As of November 21, the SHFE inventory was 100,300 tons, and the inventory decreased. As of November 20, the LME inventory was 47,300 tons, and the inventory continued to increase [100][102]. 3.6.2 Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The monthly supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and monthly supply - demand balance of zinc from January 2024 to September 2025. For example, in September 2025, the production was 600,000 tons, the import volume was 22,700 tons, the export volume was 2,500 tons, the apparent consumption was 620,000 tons, the actual consumption was 623,000 tons, and the monthly supply - demand balance was - 2,000 tons [108].

Core Viewpoint - The market remains cautious as Federal Reserve officials emphasize maintaining current policies, providing support for the US dollar, while expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, temporarily boosting gold prices before a pullback [1][2][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The gold price initially rose to $4075 but quickly retreated to around $4045, indicating a lack of sustained buying momentum [1][2] - The US dollar maintains a strong position, supported by a generally hawkish tone from most officials, despite a slight slowdown in momentum due to dovish remarks from New York Fed President Williams [2][3] - Market participants are awaiting the upcoming US economic data, particularly the delayed September PPI and retail sales figures, which are expected to significantly influence market direction [2][4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The market anticipates a PPI increase of 0.3% and retail sales growth of 0.4% for September, with stronger data potentially suppressing rate cut expectations and supporting the dollar [2][4] - The upcoming data is critical, as it could either reinforce or undermine the current market sentiment regarding interest rates and gold prices [3][4] Group 3: Gold Price Outlook - Short-term gold price action is characterized by a "high followed by resistance and subsequent consolidation," with key support levels at $4045 to $4020 [2] - If the economic data is weak, gold may test resistance levels above $4075 and $4100 [2]

亚洲早盘时段，金价一度尝试突破至4075美元，但上方缺乏持续买盘支持，随后逐步走低，最终在4045 美元附近获得支撑。盘面表现说明：即便降息预期有所升温，市场在关键数据公布前仍不愿意提前建立 多头；部分偏鹰言论对金价上行仍具压制；同时，美元在高位整理，使黄金短线反弹空间受到限制。 美元指数继续在强势区域内整理。尽管威廉姆斯的温和表态短线削弱了美元的上行动能，但大部分官员 的基调仍偏稳甚至略偏鹰，为美元提供支撑。整体结构并未明显改变，市场依旧将方向性的判断交给即 将公布的美国数据。欧元和英镑等主要货币对对美元表现偏被动，延续承压走势。 由于此前政府停摆影响数据发布时间，此次PPI和零售销售的参考价值被进一步放大。市场预期：PPI环 比+0.3%，零售销售环比+0.4%。若通胀数据强于预期，或重新压制降息讨论、推升美元，对黄金构成 压力；若数据偏弱，则有望强化黄金在4045上方的企稳走势，并为其重新冲击4075—4100区间创造条 件。 周一亚洲交易时段整体延续偏谨慎氛围。近期多位美联储官员在讲话中强调目前的政策设置仍然适合现 阶段经济，使美元保持一定韧性；与此同时，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯略显温和的发言又推动市场重 ...

Market Overview - The overall market sentiment is bearish, with most commodities experiencing downward pressure, particularly in the energy, chemical, black metal, and agricultural sectors [1] - Energy and chemical sectors saw fuel prices drop by 2.73% and crude oil by 1.69%, while black metals like coking coal and coke fell by 7.67% and 3.89% respectively [1] Energy Sector - Oil prices exhibited a weak trend, fluctuating between a high of 460.4 yuan/barrel and a low of 445.6 yuan/barrel, closing down 1.67% at 447.4 yuan/barrel [2] - OPEC+ is set to pause production increases starting January, leading to an oversupply situation, while geopolitical factors are temporarily easing tensions [2][4] - Analysts predict continued pressure on oil prices due to oversupply expectations and potential easing of sanctions on Russian oil, resulting in a bearish outlook for the near term [4] Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate futures experienced significant declines, with the main contract LC2601 dropping 9% to 91,020 yuan/ton [5] - Supply concerns are easing as the resumption of a key lithium mine is progressing, although current production costs are higher than market prices [5][6] - Demand has stagnated, with major lithium battery manufacturers adjusting their procurement strategies, indicating a potential for further price declines [5][7] Employment Data and Monetary Policy - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021 [8] - The delay in the release of employment data may lead the Federal Reserve to adopt a cautious approach regarding interest rate cuts in December [9] - Analysts suggest that despite strong employment data, the uncertainty surrounding upcoming reports may lead to a pause in rate cuts, with potential for future reductions in early 2024 [9][10] Agricultural Sector - The apple production this year is expected to decline, with lower quality and increased storage difficulties, leading to predictions of lower cold storage inventory levels [11] - Current cold storage inventory for apples stands at 7.73 million tons, with an increase of 89,200 tons from the previous week, indicating a potentially strong market for apples due to lower expected inventory levels [11]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a brief rebound to $4,100 but ultimately settled around $4,050, influenced by a slight strengthening of the dollar and a mild increase in the metals sector [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is currently focused on the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, with a 60% probability of a 25 basis point cut next month indicated by futures markets [2] - Recent comments from New York Fed President Williams suggested signs of cooling in the labor market, which provided a temporary boost to gold prices [2] - Economic data releases, including retail sales, producer price index, and unemployment claims, are anticipated to provide clearer insights into the macroeconomic environment [2] Group 2: Gold Price Trends - Since reaching a historical high of $4,380 per ounce in late October, gold has entered a consolidation phase, maintaining an overall increase of approximately 55% year-to-date [2] - Ongoing trade uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over fiscal conditions in certain countries continue to support safe-haven demand for gold [2] - In the short term, gold prices are expected to remain range-bound, driven by macroeconomic expectations as investors await new economic data [2]

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly focusing on the fluctuations in the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Theme Index and the significant developments in the rare earth materials sector, which could impact investment opportunities in the future [1][3][4]. Market Performance - As of November 24, 2025, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Theme Index (000811) decreased by 1.95%, with mixed performances among constituent stocks [1]. - Notable gainers included Huaxi Nonferrous (600301) up 6.95%, Huayu Mining (601020) up 5.16%, and Xiyue Co. (000960) up 1.81% [1]. - Conversely, Guocheng Mining (000688) led the declines with a drop of 10.00%, followed by Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240) down 9.99% and Tianqi Lithium (002466) down 9.15% [1]. - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) fell by 1.94%, with a latest price of 1.41 yuan, but showed a 22.97% increase over the past three months as of November 21 [1]. Fund Flow and Liquidity - The Nonferrous 50 ETF saw a turnover of 1.68% during the trading session, with a transaction volume of 48.4455 million yuan [1]. - Over the past two weeks, the ETF's scale increased by 120 million yuan, reaching a new high of 2.025 billion shares [3]. - The latest net inflow for the ETF was 183 million yuan, with a total of 271 million yuan net inflow over the last five trading days [3]. Technological Advancements - A breakthrough research achievement by universities in China and Singapore was published in Nature, addressing the efficient electroluminescence of insulating rare earth nanocrystals, which could transform China's rare earth resource strategy from raw material export to high-value technology output [3]. - This technology demonstrated a 76-fold increase in electroluminescent device efficiency and the ability to achieve full-spectrum emission through rare earth ion modulation [3]. Future Outlook - The outlook for industrial metals suggests that supply constraints will drive copper prices upward, while the profitability of electrolytic aluminum is expected to improve [6]. - The gold market is anticipated to continue its bullish trend, with silver showing greater elasticity due to macroeconomic factors such as interest rate cycles and global trade tensions [6]. - The lithium market is experiencing adjustments due to price drops affecting high-cost production, while demand from the electric vehicle sector remains strong [6]. - Tungsten, as a strategic metal, is expected to see price increases due to supply constraints and growing demand in emerging sectors [7]. Investment Opportunities - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted for its high "gold-copper content" at 46%, leading in its category [7]. - The ETF focuses on core strategic metals with high demand and supply gaps, featuring a high concentration of leading companies [7]. - The ETF has shown superior performance with a cumulative return leading its peers since 2022, driven by earnings rather than valuation increases [8].