由于对美国总统特朗普不可预测的关税政策感到担忧，德国政界人士质疑存放在纽约联储的价值850亿 欧元黄金储备的安全性。 特朗普与长期欧洲盟友在贸易和安全问题上的冲突，以及他对美联储的攻击，使得这一问题在最近几周 重新受到关注。德国极右翼政党"德国选择党"(AfD)的议员Stefan Keuter已公开呼吁德国将存放在美国的 黄金储备撤回国内： 美国可能会将这些黄金储备作为勒索工具，德国的黄金储备应立即全部撤回国内。 德国央行面临两难局面。一方面，将黄金撤回本土可能被视为对美国的不信任信号；另一方面，特朗普 的言论确实引发了对这些储备安全性的合理担忧。 虽然德国央行官方立场认为目前的储备分布安排"合理且经过验证"，但内部已开始评估可能的风险和应 对策略。 我们正密切关注局势发展，但任何决定都将基于长期战略考量，而非短期政治言论。 根据德国央行公开数据，德国央行拥有3352吨黄金储备，仅次于美国，是全球第二大黄金储备国。其中 约36%，相当于1222吨、价值约850亿欧元(921亿美元)的黄金目前存放在位于曼哈顿的纽约联邦储备银 行金库中。 德国央行将大量黄金存放在纽约，可追溯至冷战时期。当时担心苏联入侵的威胁，德 ...

2025 年 5 月 28 日 银河能化-20250528 早报 【银河期货】原油期货早报（25-05-28） 【市场回顾】 原油结算价：WTI2507 合约 60.89 跌 0.64 美元/桶，环比-1.04%；Brent2507 合约 64.09 跌 0.65 美元/桶，环比-1.00%。SC 主力合约 2507 涨 1.0 至 457.4 元/桶，夜盘跌 3.9 至 453.5 元/桶。Brent 主力-次行价差 0.55 美金/桶。 【相关资讯】 美国总统特朗普周二表示，普京拒绝与基辅进行停火谈判，这是在"玩火"；这是他自周日 以来第二次发表有关普京的言论。与此同时，基辅战场再次遭遇挫折，俄罗斯军队占领了 乌克兰东北部苏梅地区的四个村庄。特朗普迄今尚未对俄罗斯实施新的重大制裁，但美国 官员表示，如果他决定实施制裁，一揽子制裁措施已准备就绪。 三位 OPEC 代表向路透表示，OPEC+本周可能会同意 7 月进一步增产，这是满足不断增长 的需求和增加市场份额计划的最新阶段。消息人士称，预计 OPEC+在周三召开 22 个成员 国全体会议时不会调整政策。但他们表示，预计 OPEC+八个成员国周六开会时将同意 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve must take decisive and strong policy actions to address inflation deviations from targets, especially in the context of rising trade protectionism and tariffs under the Trump administration [1][3] Group 1: Inflation Management - Inflation expectations management is a core pillar of modern central bank policy frameworks [1] - Historical experience indicates that the root causes of persistent inflation often stem from unanchored expectations, and the cost of restoring these expectations can rise exponentially [1][3] Group 2: Supply Chain and Geopolitical Risks - Supply chain disruptions and geopolitical risks significantly impact inflation dynamics, with the COVID-19 pandemic causing notable supply shocks that increase economic uncertainty [3] - The public's perception of future prices may undergo nonlinear changes due to sudden shocks [3] Group 3: Trade Policy Impact - The trade policies under the Trump administration complicate Federal Reserve decision-making, as tariffs exert pressure on the economy through both imported inflation and demand suppression [3] - The Federal Reserve has been assessing the lagged effects of trade policies on inflation since maintaining the benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range since December of the previous year [3] Group 4: Financial System Resilience - Current data from the New York Fed indicates that the banking system has sufficient reserves to withstand potential shocks, providing an important buffer for the market [3] - Adequate liquidity reserves will determine the financial system's resilience in the face of "black swan" events [3] Group 5: Policy Forward Guidance - The Federal Reserve emphasizes a data-dependent approach, avoiding overreaction to temporary fluctuations while guarding against the accumulation of potential risks [3] - The most effective policy is proactive expectation management rather than reactive crisis response [3]

截至2025年5月28日，黄金市场呈现剧烈波动，国际金价和国内金价均出现显著变化。以下是综合市场 动态与影响因素的分析： 一、近期金价走势 国际金价下跌 5月27日，国际金价连续第二个交易日下跌，现货黄金一度跌破3300美元/盎司，COMEX黄金期货跌至 3299.70美元/盎司，跌幅近1.5%。这主要受市场避险需求降温影响，尤其是美国总统特朗普推迟对欧盟 加征关税的举措缓解了贸易紧张情绪。 国内金价调整 全球去美元化：各国央行持续增持黄金，削弱美元信用体系对金价的压制。 美国债务与通胀风险：美国财政赤字扩大和潜在通胀压力仍为黄金提供抗通胀价值。 三、市场反应与消费趋势 消费者行为 深圳水贝等黄金批发市场零售价从5月初的792元/克降至756元/克，跌幅超4%。品牌金店足金饰品价格 也跌破千元/克，部分品牌报价约970元/克。但消费者期待的"大幅下跌至700元以下"尚未实现，当前价 格仍处于高位。 二、金价波动原因 短期驱动因素 美元与美联储政策：美元走强和美联储推迟降息的预期抑制了黄金吸引力。 地缘政治风险缓和：特朗普推迟对欧盟关税、俄乌局势暂未升级等因素降低了避险需求。 技术性调整：前期快速上涨后的获利盘 ...

利率是各国央行调整货币政策的核心之一，对外汇市场的直接影响主要体现在货币供需、市场预期、资 本流动及政策分化等方面。 1. · 加息与升值：央行加息会吸引更多资本流入，减少市场货币流通量，推动本币升值。例如，美联储加 息通常导致美元走强，因其作为全球储备货币的地位强化了市场对美元的需求。 · 降息与贬值：降息降低本币资产吸引力，导致资本外流，货币贬值。 · 美元的特殊地位：美联储的利率决议对全球外汇市场影响尤为显著。若美联储维持高利率或推迟降 息，美元可能相对其他货币走强；反之，若释放降息信号，美元则可能疲软。 2. 市场预期与实际决议的差异 · 预期管理：市场往往提前消化利率决议的预期。若实际决议与预期不符，可能引发汇率剧烈波动。 · 前瞻指引：央行对未来政策路径的表态会直接影响市场预期。鲍威尔在 2025 年 5 月会议上强调 "不确 定性加剧"，暗示降息门槛提高，导致美元短期走强。 3. · 关税与通胀的相互作用：特朗普政府的关税政策可能推高通胀，迫使美联储维持高利率以抑制物价， 间接支撑美元。 · 多国政策分化：各国央行利率决议的差异可能导致汇率波动。以 2025 年 5 月为例，英国央行降息而挪 威 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has raised its three-month gold price target to $3,500 per ounce due to ongoing uncertainties such as Trump's trade war, geopolitical risks, and the state of U.S. finances, which have reignited demand for safe-haven assets [1] Group 1 - The adjustment in gold price target reflects the impact of geopolitical tensions and trade policies on market sentiment [1] - The demand for safe-haven assets is expected to increase as uncertainties persist in the global economic landscape [1] - Citigroup's revised target indicates a significant bullish outlook on gold prices in the near term [1]

Oil Price Review - As of May 23, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $64.78 per barrel, down $0.63 (-0.96%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures settled at $61.53 per barrel, down $0.44 (-0.71%) [2][3] - The Urals crude spot price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, and the ESPO crude spot price decreased by $0.29 (-0.48%) to $60.56 per barrel [2][3] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the lack of substantial progress in Russia-Ukraine talks and uncertain prospects for US-Iran negotiations, are contributing to risk premiums in oil prices [2] - Israel's preparations to attack Iranian nuclear facilities are also influencing market sentiment [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting in June is expected to determine July's production plans, leading to cautious market behavior [2] - In the US, crude oil production increased to 13.392 million barrels per day as of May 16, 2025, while the number of active drilling rigs decreased by 8 to 465 [3] - US refinery crude processing rose to 16.49 million barrels per day, with a utilization rate of 90.70%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous week [3] Inventory Levels - As of May 16, 2025, total US crude oil inventories increased by 2.171 million barrels (+0.26%) to 844 million barrels, with strategic reserves at 400 million barrels (+0.21%) and commercial inventories at 443 million barrels (+0.30%) [3] - The Cushing region's crude oil inventory decreased by 457,000 barrels (-1.91%) [3] Refined Product Inventory - As of May 16, 2025, US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel inventories saw increases of 0.36%, 0.56%, and 1.11% respectively [4] Related Companies - Relevant companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent performance of gold, highlighting a 3% increase for the week, marking its best weekly performance since early April [1] - Factors contributing to gold's rise include a downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's and weak demand for US assets, which has pressured the dollar [1][2] - Geopolitical tensions, including ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and increased military actions in Gaza, are also supporting gold as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold experienced a pullback after reaching a high of 3345, with support seen around 3280 [3][5] - The overall trend remains bullish, with expectations for further upward movement towards resistance levels of 3345-3350 [3][5] - Trading strategies suggest a focus on short positions around 3340-3245 and long positions near 3280-3285, with specific stop-loss and target levels outlined [6]

1.黄金建议在当前现价3290附近做空，止损在3298，目标看3275-3255，破位持有。 文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是实实在在的分析与强大的理论，我是翁富豪老师，最后祝大家交易愉 快。免责申明:以上纯属个人观点分享，不构成操作建议，投资有风险，盈亏自负。 黄金2小时图上，黄金连续反弹，刷新一周新高，不过日内金价冲高回落，需要注意短期回调修正风险。其次日内黄金高点位置3345美元。5日均线轻微金 叉，MACD指标死叉上拐，RSI指标金叉下拐，KDJ指标金叉略微放缓，短期技术面显示跌势占优，不过RSI指标暗示金价短线存在调整需求，翁富豪建议晚 间看跌为主导. 周四（5月22日）欧市盘中，现货黄金维持震荡下行态势，现报3295美元/盎司附近。日内大家需重点关注美国PMI数据，该指标可能引发黄金市场显著波 动。尽管金价周四录得连续第四个交易日上涨，并一度触及3350美元/盎司的两周高位，但当前涨势有所放缓。黄金近期走势主要受到多重因素支撑：地缘 政治风险升温、美国财政状况恶化以及美元持续走弱。具体而言，穆迪下调美国主权信用评级，并警告特朗普政府新一轮税改及开支计划可 ...

Group 1 - The SEMI and TechInsights report indicates a 7% quarter-over-quarter decline in semiconductor capital expenditure (Capex) for Q1 2025, but a 27% year-over-year increase, driven by a 57% increase in memory-related Capex and a 15% increase in non-memory Capex [1] - Wafer fab equipment (WFE) spending is projected to grow by 19% year-over-year in Q1 2025, with an expected additional 12% growth in Q2, fueled by strong investments in advanced logic and memory production to support AI semiconductor adoption [1] - Test equipment orders saw a 56% year-over-year increase in Q1 2025, with a forecasted 53% growth in Q2, reflecting the rising complexity and stringent performance requirements for AI and HBM chip testing [1] Group 2 - Despite new tariffs, electronic product sales in Q1 2025 followed traditional seasonal patterns, with a 16% quarter-over-quarter decline but year-over-year sales remaining flat [2] - Integrated circuit (IC) sales experienced a strong year-over-year growth of 23%, despite a 2% quarter-over-quarter decline, indicating a mixed response from companies to geopolitical risks [3] - Global wafer fab capacity exceeded 42.5 million wafers in Q1 2025, marking a 2% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 7% year-over-year increase, with mainland China leading in capacity expansion [3] Group 3 - The semiconductor capital expenditure for 2024 is projected at $155 billion, a 5% decrease from $164 billion in 2023, with a forecasted increase to $160 billion in 2025 [4] - TSMC plans to spend between $38 billion and $42 billion in capital expenditures for 2025, representing a 34% increase, while Micron expects to increase its capital expenditure by 73% to $14 billion [4] - Major players like Samsung, TSMC, and Intel dominate global semiconductor capital expenditure, accounting for 57% of total Capex in 2024, with Intel and Samsung planning significant reductions in 2025 [4]