在已参与投资的群体中，收益情况呈现分化：19%表示"盈利丰厚"，22%为"小幅盈利"，32%"基本持 平"，另有26%已经"亏损"。 据小调查显示，截至目前，共有人8974人参与，揭示了当前投资者对贵金属市场的态度与操作倾向。 超四成认为牛市已结束 对于本轮黄金白银牛市是否终结的问题，42%的受访者认为"已结束，牛市见顶"，33%认为"未结束，短 期调整后将继续上涨"，25%表示"不确定，需观察后续国际形势与政策信号"。 多数人未直接参与投资 尽管市场关注度高，但65%的受访者表示"未参与，仅保持关注"，直接参与黄金白银投资的占28%，投 资其他贵金属的占7%。说明多数人仍处于观望状态，并未急于入场。 凤凰网财经讯 2月2日，近期黄金、白银等贵金属价格剧烈震荡，市场情绪分歧明显。截至发稿，现货 黄金跌3.41%，报4691.39美元盎司，现货白银跌4.67%，报80.49美元/盎司。 收益表现分化，亏损者占比不低 观望成主流操作策略 面对当前的高波动市场，41%的受访者选择"观望为主，等待趋势明朗"，占比最高；28%考虑"减仓或离 场"；26%计划"逢低分批买入，长期持有"；仅5%倾向"短线波段操作"。 地缘 ...

2.2黄金行情走势分析： 前言： 2025年的黄金市场，既有数字增长的收获，更领悟了"顺势而为、坚守本心"的智慧。市场不缺机会，缺 的是看透本质的认知与抗波动的定力，这份收获是对理性判断与长期主义的最好印证。2026，新一年， 带着沉淀继续稳步前行即可。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周一（2月2日）亚市时段，现货黄金在获利了结盘压力下大幅下挫，延续前两个交易日跌势，现交投于 每盎司4555美元附近，日内跌幅约6%，截至13:54，此前一度跌至三周低点4497.39美元/盎司，上周五 金价跌幅近10%。此前，凯文·沃什被提名为下一任美联储主席的消息缓解了市场对美联储独立性的担 忧，美国政治稳定性显现迹象，促使金价在上周创下历史高点后延续跌势。另一方面，包括美伊紧张局 势缓解在内的地缘风险支撑部分退场，可能削减黄金等传统避险资产吸引力。交易员将密切关注美伊谈 判进展，以及沃什政策方向的进一步明朗化。不过，主要央行的购金需求料将在一定程度上限制金价下 行空间。美国供应管理协会（ISM）制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）数据将于周一晚些时候公布，预计 1月数据将从12月的47.9改善至48 ...

【黄金期货最新行情】 | 2月2日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 1008.60 | -15.73% | 893317 | 178401 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 数据显示，2月2日上海黄金现货价格报价1030.00元/克，相较于期货主力价格（1008.60元/克）升水 21.04元/克。 【机构观点】 西部期货：多空因素激烈博弈 黄金冲高后警惕宽幅震荡 上周行情再创新高，之后迎来暴跌，SHFE黄金主力合约收于1161.42人民币元/克，上涨5.31%;SHFE白 银主力合约收于27941人民币元/千克，上涨15.82%。1月13日当周，COMEX黄金净多头持仓696.49吨， 环比-20.33吨，保持高位;1月23日当周，黄金ETF持有量净流入34.5吨，环比-1.3吨，保持高速流入。基 本面方面，美联储1月会议认为美国经济稳健，劳动力市场企稳，通胀大致符合预期，释放短期内不考 虑降息的信号，未来降息预期波动或依赖新主席提名。因两党围绕国土安全部拨款及 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年02月02日16时12分 报告导读： 今日贵金属几乎全线跌停，沪金主力收跌15.73%，沪银主力收跌17%，铂金主力收跌16%，钯金主力收涨跌16%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战与地缘异动风险短期缓和，中长期仍存；新联储主席预期偏鹰，美国就业走弱通胀压力仍存，降息预期渐近 尾声，缩表预期重创贵金属。②避险属性方面，前期围绕格陵兰岛资源争端及北美贸易关税摩擦的地缘紧张局势在近日出现缓和迹 象。最新特朗普称俄对乌部分地区停火一周，贸易战与地缘异动风险短期缓和。③货币属性方面，特朗普提名前美联储理事沃什接 替鲍威尔，新提名引爆鹰派预期，其主张缩减资产负债表并对降息持谨慎态度，贵金属遭遇史诗级抛售。美国12月PPI创五个月来 最大环比涨幅，意味着未来数月通胀可能加速，让美联储能够在一段时间内维持利率稳定。目前市场预期美联储降息年内完成，下 次降息或到6月。美元指数和美债收益率低位反弹；④商品属性方面，关注银铂钯需求证伪风险。白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢 能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震 ...

2026.02. 02 本文字数：1200，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 郑栩彤 预告公司陷入亏损后，今日闻泰科技（600745.SH）跌停。 | < W | 间员科技(600745) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 闭市 02-02 15:00:00 通 融 | | | | | 35.46 | 额 4.58亿 股本 12.45亿 市盈 -25.5 | | 万得 | | -10.00% 换 1.04% 市值1441亿 市净 1.30 -3.94 | | | 空口 | | 盯盘 第1次2025年年报业绩预告，公司业绩：续亏。 预测业绩：净利 × | | | | | 分时 五日 日K 日高K 月K 更多 | | | [0] | | 叠加 | | | 盘口 资金 | | 43.34 | 10.00% 卖5 35.50 | | 769 | | | | 卖4 35.49 | 591 | | | | 23 35.48 | 505 | | | | 定2 | 35.47 1879 | | 39.40 | | 0.00% ¥1 35.46 399305 | | | | | 27 | ...

Group 1 - Recent significant decline in gold prices, with London gold dropping to $4,865.35 per ounce on January 31, marking a 9.45% decrease, the largest single-day drop in nearly 40 years [1] - As of February 2, London gold further decreased to $4,658.5 per ounce, down over 4% [1] - Cathie Wood, known as the "female Buffett," predicts an imminent bubble burst in gold, citing that gold's market value now exceeds historical highs relative to the U.S. money supply (M2) [2][4] Group 2 - The current U.S. economy differs significantly from the high inflation of the 1970s and the deflationary depression of the 1930s, with a decline in market inflation expectations as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell from 5% to 4.2% [4][5] - Wood argues that the recent surge in gold prices is characteristic of a market cycle's end, predicting a strengthening dollar could lead to a significant drop in gold prices, similar to the 60% decline from 1980 to 2000 [6][7] Group 3 - Global central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are the primary buyers of gold, with a notable increase in demand, including a 225-ton increase by the People's Bank of China in 2023 [9][10] - Central banks have net purchased gold for 15 consecutive years, with annual purchases exceeding 1,000 tons from 2022 to 2024, driven by trends of "de-dollarization" and geopolitical risks [9][10] Group 4 - The argument against Wood's assessment highlights a critical flaw in using U.S. monetary supply metrics to evaluate a global reserve asset like gold [8][11] - Citigroup's assessment of historical gold allocation norms fails to account for the new geopolitical landscape, which includes high debt and fragmented global trade [12] Group 5 - The U.S. financial institutions' bearish stance on gold is influenced by their interests in maintaining dollar dominance, as increased gold holdings by central banks often come from selling U.S. debt [14][15] - The U.S. government and financial entities are likely to suppress gold prices to prevent any challenge to the dollar's status [22][23] Group 6 - Despite recent declines, the fundamental value of gold remains supported by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and geopolitical risk management [24][27] - Countries with strained relations with the U.S., such as China and Russia, continue to increase their gold reserves as a hedge against potential currency risks [28] Group 7 - The demand for physical gold is also driven by individuals seeking asset privacy and protection from government oversight in an era of advanced data tracking [29] - The comparison between gold and AI highlights that while both may experience fluctuations, their underlying market dynamics are fundamentally different, with AI showing tangible profit potential [30][32]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【纯苯&苯乙烯周报】 市场情绪显著波动，纯苯苯乙烯震荡偏强 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-02-02 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心：陈胜 从业资格证号：F3066728 投资咨询证号：Z0017251 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 苯乙烯：市场情绪显著波动，纯苯苯乙烯震荡偏强 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | 关于苯乙烯的经济性，亚洲苯乙烯-苯价差回升至210美元，苯乙烯-石脑油价差达340美元，双双显著走阔，标志着生产商利润已重回可变成本盈亏平衡线以 | | | | 上，刺激开工意愿。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | 截至2026年1月26日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：30.5万吨，较上期库存29.7万吨累库0.8万吨，环比增加2.69%；较去年同期库存13.5万吨累库17万 吨，同比上升125.93%。1月19日-1月25日，不完全统计到货1.3吨，提货约0.5 ...

Core Insights - The recent volatility in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, has been extreme, with gold reaching a peak of $5,598 before dropping below $4,700, indicating fierce market contention between bulls and bears [1][2] - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair has triggered significant market reactions, with traders interpreting his stance on monetary policy as potentially hawkish despite his previous support for rate cuts [2][3] - Geopolitical risks, including U.S. military interventions and tensions with Iran, have been key drivers for the rise in gold and silver prices, as they heighten market risk aversion [5][6] Market Reactions - Gold prices experienced a dramatic fluctuation, with a drop of 3.3% on Monday, followed by a recovery that narrowed the loss to around 1%, but later expanded to a 4.3% decline [1] - Silver prices were even more volatile, initially plummeting over 10% to below $75 per ounce before rebounding to above $87, only to fall again by over 4% [1] - The stock market also reflected this panic, with numerous gold-related stocks in both A-shares and Hong Kong shares experiencing significant declines [1] Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. rose by 3% year-on-year, surpassing expectations and contributing to a stronger dollar and higher U.S. Treasury yields, which negatively impacted gold prices [3] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is anticipated to be a crucial catalyst for market direction, with weak employment data potentially reversing the trend of a strong dollar and reigniting gold buying [3] Geopolitical Factors - The increase in geopolitical tensions, such as U.S. military actions in Venezuela and warnings regarding Iran, has significantly influenced market sentiment and the demand for safe-haven assets like gold [5][6] - The ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran regarding nuclear agreements may continue to affect precious metal prices as developments unfold [5] Physical Demand - Despite market volatility, physical demand for gold remains strong, particularly in India, where premiums surged to $121 per ounce ahead of the federal budget announcement [6] - The approaching Lunar New Year in China is expected to boost demand for gold jewelry and investment, maintaining high premiums in the market [7]

Market Overview - The domestic precious metals market experienced significant declines today, with most contracts hitting the limit down, indicating a worsening situation in the afternoon compared to the morning [2][11] - Key contracts and their price changes include: - Silver (沪银2604) at 24,832, down 17.00% - Palladium (把2606) at 413.70, down 16.00% - Platinum (辑2606) at 552.15, down 16.00% - Gold (沪金2604) at 1,020.40, down 14.75% - Lithium Carbonate (碳酸锂2605) at 134,140, down 12.88% [2][11] Trading Volume and Pressure - The trading volume for the main silver contract (Ag2604) has significantly shrunk, indicating heavy selling pressure with nearly 42,000 sell orders piled up at the limit down price [3][5][11] - The overall market sentiment is marked by fear, as related sectors failed to stabilize, further exacerbating the situation [7][14] Technical Analysis - The gold contract (Au2604) is approaching a critical support level around 1,000. A breakdown below this level could signal further weakness in the market [7][14] - Current market conditions do not show any clear signs of recovery, and if the weak trend continues, there is a possibility of further declines in the night session [9][17] Geopolitical Factors - Recent developments regarding the Epstein case have heightened concerns about political uncertainty in the U.S., which may lead to increased market volatility [9][17] - Investors are advised to monitor the U.S.-Iran situation closely, as any escalation could trigger risk-off sentiment that might provide some relief for precious metals [9][17] Investment Strategy - The company recommends that investors remain cautious, prioritize position protection, and avoid blind trading in a volatile environment [9][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish investment view on the PTA market, with a long - only trading strategy for the single - side trade [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PTA market is mainly driven by the supply side and is expected to be strong. The PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high - level correction. The domestic PTA production in January is expected to reach a record high, and existing devices will operate at full capacity to meet the growing demand of polyester. Although the domestic polyester demand has declined, the impact on PTA is limited, and the PTA consumption remains high, with the processing fee expanding rapidly. The PTA port inventory has decreased by 50,000 tons, and the negative feedback from downstream polyester factories has weakened the basis. The PTA and PX profits have expanded significantly. The PTA price has rebounded significantly, and the overseas PX device has increased its load due to the profit expansion. The geopolitical risk is a factor that requires attention [3]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bullish. PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high - level correction. The domestic PTA production in January is expected to reach a record high, and there is no plan to reduce production during the Spring Festival. With no new PTA capacity throughout the year, existing devices will operate at full capacity to match the growing polyester demand. The PX - mixed xylene spread is maintained at around $150, and the PX - naphtha spread has dropped to $335. The PTA processing fee has rebounded to 400 yuan [3]. - **Demand**: Bearish. The domestic polyester demand has declined, and the production reduction of polyester factories has a certain negative feedback on PTA, but the impact is limited. The PTA consumption remains high, and the processing fee has expanded rapidly [3]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The PTA port inventory has decreased by 50,000 tons, and the negative feedback from downstream polyester factories has weakened the basis [3]. - **Basis and Profit**: Bullish. The PTA profit has expanded significantly, and PX maintains high profits. The PX - naphtha spread has reached $335, and the PTA processing fee has expanded to around 400 yuan [3]. - **Valuation and Macro - policy**: Neutral. The PTA price has rebounded significantly, and the price has returned above 5200 yuan. The reforming device profit has rebounded, and the overseas PX device has increased its load due to the profit expansion. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East may affect the market, but the current impact on the PTA market is relatively neutral [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Bullish. Driven by the supply side, the market is expected to be strong [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - only for single - side trade. Geopolitical risks need to be noted [3]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamental Overview - **Crude Oil**: The situation in Iran is tense, and the crude oil price has risen strongly [5]. - **Gasoline**: The US gasoline is waiting for inventory building. The refinery is operating at a very high load, and the gasoline cracking profit is weakening. The global aromatics and gasoline blending component market is dominated by geopolitical risks. The European gasoline price has risen sharply, and the current premium structure has expanded. However, the upward movement of the aromatic hydrocarbon price lacks fundamental support and is mainly driven by geopolitical premiums and energy cost transmission. If the situation in the Middle East eases or refineries restart on a large scale, the market may face correction pressure [9][15][31]. 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamental Overview - **Aromatic Hydrocarbons in General**: The Asian aromatic hydrocarbon and gasoline blending market shows a structural trend under the influence of geopolitical risks and regional supply - demand differentiation. The overseas mixed xylene market shows a differentiated trend, and the price is mainly driven by energy costs, local supply disturbances, and gasoline blending demand expectations rather than the improvement of the aromatic hydrocarbon chain fundamentals. If the situation in the Middle East eases or the European supply recovers, the price may correct, but the market may strengthen further as the Q2 gasoline blending season approaches [47][53]. - **PX**: It is the core of the polyester industry price fluctuation. After the listing of PX futures, its pricing is closely linked to the futures. PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high - level correction. The downstream PTA industry remains strong, providing a solid demand foundation for PX. The PX supply is still tight, and the profit structure is still healthy [52][67]. - **PTA**: The domestic PTA capacity is large, and the processing range has long been maintained below 500 yuan. With the launch of new devices and new capacities, the option - based income enhancement plan is increasingly widely used in the market [52][58]. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip**: They are in the capacity launch cycle. Since the domestic downstream demand is relatively stable, the overseas demand has become an important variable. With the implementation of the "Belt and Road" initiative, the industry has found new export opportunities and sales growth points in countries along the route [52][58]. - **Mixed Xylene**: The price has continued to rise, mainly supported by the strong crude oil price and the short - term tight regional supply. As multiple devices are gradually restarted in late January, the supply will gradually recover, and the market may turn to a stable and weak trend. Without new geopolitical or device disturbances, the upward price space is limited [54][59]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamental Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: It has returned to a weak state, waiting for cost expectations. Overseas ethylene glycol prices have rebounded after a long - term slump. The reduction of ethylene glycol exports in the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 1.8 - million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu is operating at about 80% capacity, and due to profit considerations, the plant plans to switch a 900,000 - ton EG production line to produce polyethylene in mid - February, and the duration of the conversion is to be determined [75][81]. - **Gasoline**: The Asian gasoline profit is strong, waiting for domestic gasoline exports [82]. - **Polyester**: The profits of the upstream industrial chain have expanded. The PX - naphtha spread and the PTA processing fee have increased, and the cash flows of polyester products such as bottle - chips, DTY, POY, and FDY have also changed accordingly [100].