1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish [1][2][4] - Silver: Bullish with a bias towards selling out - of - the - money put options [4] - Copper: Wide - range oscillation [4] - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum in range oscillation, Alumina in weak oscillation [4] - Nickel: Range oscillation [4] - Lithium Carbonate: Weak oscillation [1][4][6] - Silicon Energy: Weak oscillation [6] - Steel and Ore (including Rebar, Hot - rolled Coil, Iron Ore): Weak oscillation [6] - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking Coal in weak oscillation, Coke in bottom - building oscillation [8] - Soda Ash and Glass: Weak oscillation [8] - Polyester: Weak oscillation [8] - Crude Oil: Weak oscillation [10] - Methanol: Decline [10] - Polyolefins: Decline [10] - Rubber: Weak oscillation [10] - Stock Index: Oscillation and consolidation [2] - Treasury Bonds: Range oscillation [2] 2. Core Views - The overall sentiment for going long on gold is still strong, while methanol and lithium carbonate are weak. For gold, due to the weakening of the US dollar and various domestic problems in the US, the upward trend of gold prices continues. For methanol, increasing imports and falling costs lead to a downward price trend. For lithium carbonate, despite some production cuts, the oversupply situation remains [1][2][4][6][10]. - The A - share market has shown a trend of strengthening recently, but the trading volume is still at a low level, and the upward momentum needs to be gathered. The bond market lacks clear directional drivers, and the odds for bulls are not favorable [2]. - For various metals, the financial attributes and supply - demand fundamentals jointly affect the price trends. For example, the weakening of the US dollar supports the prices of copper and other metals, but the supply - demand situation of each metal is different [4]. - In the energy and chemical sectors, factors such as supply - demand relationships, production capacity, and cost changes affect the price trends of products like silicon energy, crude oil, and polyolefins [6][8][10]. - In the steel and coal sectors, the supply - demand situation and policy expectations jointly affect the price trends. For example, the supply of steel - making raw materials is loose, which drags down the overall price of the steel - iron industry chain [6][8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The A - share market oscillated strongly on Monday, with technology themes rebounding comprehensively. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.07 trillion yuan, still at a low level. The futures market oscillated strongly following the spot index. The market risk preference is expected to stabilize and recover, but the trading volume is low, and the upward momentum needs to be gathered [2]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market oscillated weakly, and the futures bonds closed down across the board. The LPR remained unchanged, which was in line with market expectations. The market still has expectations for loose monetary policy, but the implementation rhythm is uncertain. The current bond market lacks clear directional drivers, and the odds for bulls are not good [2]. Gold and Silver - The US dollar assets are weakening, and the gold price upward trend continues. The US has various problems such as domestic contradictions, stagflation risks, and high - interest - rate environments, which weaken the market's confidence in the US dollar. Gold's monetary attribute is enhanced. It is recommended to hold the previous long positions of AU2506 and raise the stop - loss line. For silver, due to the high gold - silver ratio and the weakening of the driving force for ratio repair, it is recommended to hold the sold out - of - the - money put options AG2506P7500 [2][4]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The weakening of the US dollar index supports the copper price, but the supply - demand situation is complex. The mine end is still tight, and the domestic consumption peak season supports demand, but there are concerns about mid - term export drag. The copper price will continue to have high volatility [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The alumina price is under pressure, and the price of Shanghai aluminum is affected by the macro and supply - demand situation. The alumina fundamentals are bearish, and the downward space depends on the cost. The demand concerns for Shanghai aluminum are alleviated, but macro disturbances still exist [4]. - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore is affected by weather, and the cost of ferronickel is high. The production of intermediate products is increasing, and the production and capacity of refined nickel are expanding. The demand from stainless steel and new energy is weakening. The nickel price is expected to continue narrow - range oscillation, and selling put options has an advantage in terms of win - rate and odds [4]. Lithium Carbonate - Due to factors such as equipment maintenance and inventory reduction pressure, some lithium ore production lines have reduced production, but the supply reduction may be limited. The terminal vehicle market is active, but the demand transmission is not smooth. The lithium carbonate fundamentals remain loose, and the strategy of selling call options should be continued [4][6]. Silicon Energy - The industrial silicon has a plan for furnace reduction and maintenance, and the new production capacity in the southwest region is being tested. The polysilicon market shows that the rush - installation demand is coming to an end, and the demand in the domestic market has dropped sharply. The industry is in a state of oversupply, and the low - price state will continue [6]. Steel and Ore - **Rebar**: The spot price has rebounded, and the inventory is decreasing. Before the May Day holiday, downstream may replenish inventory moderately. The market still has expectations for policies. Considering the supply of steel - making raw materials, the rebar price is expected to oscillate downward in the second quarter, and it is recommended to hold the previous short positions of RB2510 [6]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The spot price has risen, and the inventory is decreasing. Before the end of the month, downstream pre - holiday replenishment and policy expectations may support the market sentiment. The demand for plates is weakening, and the hot - rolled coil price is expected to oscillate downward. It is recommended to hold the previous short positions of HC2510 [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term supply - demand structure of iron ore is relatively healthy, and the inventory of iron elements is decreasing. Before the May Day holiday, steel mills may replenish raw materials. However, due to the Sino - US trade war and the release of overseas mine production capacity, the iron ore supply is expected to be in surplus, and the price is expected to decline in the long term. It is recommended to hold the previous short positions of I2509 and consider the 9 - 1 positive spread opportunity [6]. Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: The supply of Mongolian coal is sufficient, and the production of domestic large mines is stable. The de - stocking pressure of ports and mines is large. The price transmission mechanism is ineffective, and the market's long - term demand expectation is not positive. The supply surplus situation of coking coal is difficult to alleviate, and the previous short - selling strategy should be continued [8]. - **Coke**: The seasonal increase in pig iron production supports the demand for coke, but steel mills are controlling the arrival of goods. The second round of price increase for coke may be difficult to promote. The coking profit has been slightly repaired, and the coke fundamentals remain loose. The spot market is still in a game, and the futures price is mainly bottom - building [8]. Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: Some enterprises are under maintenance, and the daily production has decreased slightly. The demand is not strong, and the industry has problems such as over - capacity, loose supply, and passive inventory accumulation. The soda ash price is expected to decline slightly, and it is recommended to hold the previous short positions of the 09 contract [8]. - **Float Glass**: Affected by the real - estate market, the rigid demand for glass is weak, and the speculative demand is not sustainable. The inventory is mainly concentrated in upstream glass factories, and the de - stocking speed in the peak season is slow. The glass price is expected to continue to decline slightly, and it is recommended to hold the previous short positions of the FG509 contract [8]. Polyester - The PTA production capacity utilization rate is stable, and the social inventory has decreased. The ethylene glycol production capacity utilization rate is 62.3%, and the inventory in the main ports in East China has accumulated. The terminal load has decreased, and the demand support is weak. The PTA market lacks positive drivers, and the price may continue to oscillate weakly [8]. Crude Oil - The macro - situation is complex, and the demand is weak, lacking support for oil prices. The expected damage to demand and the limited implementation of OPEC + compensatory production cuts are bearish factors for oil prices. If there is no further positive driver, the oil price is likely to fall after reaching a resistance level [10]. Methanol - The methanol import volume is expected to increase, and the future supply pressure is increasing. The pit - mouth coal price has decreased slightly, and the coal inventory may increase after the end of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway maintenance. The increase in supply and the decrease in cost lead to a decline in methanol prices, and it is recommended to hold short positions patiently [10]. Polyolefins - In March, the import volume of PE and PP decreased, and the export volume increased. The increase in export volume is due to the increase in equipment maintenance in Southeast Asia, not the improvement of overseas demand. The domestic supply is in surplus, and the short - selling view remains unchanged. It is recommended to exit the L - PP spread position of the 05 contract as it has reached the profit - taking target [10]. Rubber - The port inventory is decreasing, but the demand is affected by the high inventory of tire enterprises' finished products. The Yunnan rubber - producing area has started tapping, and the supply is expected to increase. The supply - demand situation of rubber is bearish, and the strategy of selling call options should be continued. Attention should be paid to the continuity of domestic consumption - stimulation policies [10]

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 黄金强势逻辑继续。大国多方面博弈剧烈，特朗普要求鲍威尔下台，美元去化 | | 黄金 | 强势 | 加速，黄金是成为未来秩序的重要筹码。长期看，国际秩序破坏，不确定困扰 | | | | 持续，各经济体购金动力积极，黄金长期战略配置价值持续存在【790-830】 | | | | 全球需求释放或再现，商品市场波动剧烈，但是关税谈判以及短期需警惕流动 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 性危机。白银弹性大跟随黄金和基本金属波动，仍处于大的震荡区间附近，操 作上区间思路对待，秩序将改变，金银比或短期失效。【8000-8500】 | | | | 美元指数走弱跌破 98 关口，伦铜休市，沪铜走出独立行情，国内 LPR 按兵不动， | | 铜 | 反弹 | 市场期待政治局会议政策刺激，市场情绪回暖，短期多单谨慎持有，回调背靠下方 | | | | 均线把握逢低试多机会，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【75000，78000】 | | 锌 | 反弹承压 | 海内外库存累积，终端需求偏弱，锌区间震荡，空单可部分逢低止盈 ...

铜： 夜盘铜价收低。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。根据国家统计局数据来 看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力投资高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新 能源渗透率提升有望巩固汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关税谈判 进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 贵金属 ：黄金持续刷新新高。特朗普在其社交媒体平台 Truth Social 表示，"谈判与成功的黄金法则： 拥有黄金者制定规则"，即谁有黄金谁占主导，引发市场猜想。同时，特朗普一再要求美联储降息，并 研究能否免去鲍威尔的美联储主席职务，动摇市场信心。随着贸易战扰动加剧，引发一系列的连锁反 应，金融市场动荡、衰退风险加剧、去美元化、美国债务等问题愈发凸显，伴随政策和市场的不确定 性，黄金价格持续刷新历史新高。面对未来通胀上行压力，鲍威尔也未对未来降息进行松口，但长端美 债价格的波动，令市场对美联储重启 QE 和提前降息的预期升温。考虑今年美国国债到期和债务压力进 一步加剧，滞胀形式进一步明确下，黄金整体仍将维持强势。 一、当日主要新闻关注 1 ）国际新闻 首席点评：美股全线回落，特朗普呼吁降息 ...

泰国与美国的关税谈判据称被推迟。(智通财经) ...

Group 1 - The current market is experiencing frequent fluctuations, with a significant drop on April 7, followed by a gradual stabilization. Many investors perceive a lack of investment opportunities, but this may not be the case [1] - Investors are focusing on the upcoming tariff negotiations, with a notable shift in the global perception of the U.S. under Trump's administration. The U.S. is seen as less dominant compared to 2018, allowing China and other countries to respond more assertively to tariffs [2] - Domestic policies are responding promptly to stabilize the market, with initiatives from the Central Huijin and other funds to inject vitality into the stock market. The emphasis on stabilizing the stock market over the real estate market indicates the government's commitment [2] Group 2 - Historical context shows that similar market conditions occurred on September 24 last year, where many investors left the market during a downturn, only to be surprised by subsequent gains. This highlights the importance of understanding institutional investment movements [3] - Advanced data analysis tools are now available to track institutional trading activities, allowing for better insights into market dynamics. These tools can capture and analyze trading data to identify unusual patterns [3][5] - The "institutional inventory" data indicates the level of institutional participation in trading. A longer duration of active institutional inventory suggests greater confidence in the stock's future performance [5][7] Group 3 - Currently, there are fewer than a thousand stocks with institutional inventory, but over 700 stocks have shown institutional inventory for multiple days. This indicates a growing interest from institutional investors [9] - The number of stocks with 4-5 days of institutional inventory has reached a recent high, suggesting potential investment opportunities that may not be immediately apparent to retail investors [9]

Group 1: Trade Surplus and Energy Imports - Several Asian countries are seeking to purchase more US oil and gas to reduce their trade surplus with the US, especially in light of potential new import tariffs by Trump [1] - Countries including Indonesia, Pakistan, India, and Thailand are planning to increase their imports of US oil and gas [1] Group 2: Indonesia's Import Plans - Indonesia plans to propose increasing imports of US crude oil and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) by approximately $10 billion as part of tariff negotiations [2] Group 3: Pakistan's First-Time Imports - Pakistan is considering its first imports of US crude oil, aiming to offset the trade imbalance that has led to increased US tariffs, with an estimated purchase of around $1 billion [5] Group 4: India's Tax Adjustments - India is contemplating the removal of import taxes on US LNG to boost purchases and reduce its trade surplus, which is a key factor in Trump's trade negotiations [8] - GAIL India Ltd plans to acquire up to 26% of a US LNG project and sign a 15-year gas import agreement [8] Group 5: Thailand's LNG and Ethane Plans - Thailand intends to import more US LNG and ethane over the next five years, with existing plans to import 1 million tons of LNG annually starting next year, valued at $500 million [9] - Additionally, Thailand plans to sign a contract for over 1 million tons of US LNG and import 40,000 tons of US ethane valued at $10 million in the next four years [9] Group 6: Alaska LNG Project - Trump is encouraging Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan to participate in the $44 billion Alaska LNG export project, which aims to transport gas from Alaska to these countries [10] - An Alaska delegation has been promoting the project in Japan, with potential interest from Mitsubishi Group in investing [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The uncertainty of the US economy has increased, and the US dollar has continued to decline. The global risk appetite has generally increased, while the Chinese economy has shown signs of accelerated recovery, and policy support expectations have strengthened, providing strong support for the short - term risk appetite of the domestic market [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are expected to have a short - term volatile rebound; bonds are expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term; commodities show different trends in different sectors, with black metals being weakly volatile, non - ferrous metals having a volatile rebound, energy and chemicals having a volatile rebound, and precious metals rising [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The US President's threat to dismiss the Fed Chairman has increased the uncertainty of the Fed's monetary policy. Due to tariff issues, the economic uncertainty has increased, and the US dollar index has continued to decline [2]. - Domestic: China's GDP in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 5.4% year - on - year, higher than market expectations. The State Council's executive meeting indicated an increase in counter - cyclical adjustment to support employment and foreign trade, strengthening policy support expectations [2]. Stock Index - Affected by the hotel, tourism, food processing, and agricultural sectors, the domestic stock market declined slightly. However, strong economic data, policy support, and the US President's softened attitude towards tariffs provided support for the domestic market, suggesting short - term cautious long positions [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have reached new highs. The US government's credit damage, geopolitical risks, and the Fed Chairman's hawkish stance have supported the strong performance of gold. Silver may follow gold in high - level oscillations but faces greater downward pressure [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel futures and spot markets continued to decline slightly, with low trading volumes. Policy expectations have increased. Demand has improved, but the "buy - on - rising" mentality and the seasonal transition have led to differentiated trading. Supply is at a high level, and short - term steel markets are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices declined slightly. Iron - water production remained high, and supply is expected to increase further. Short - term policy expectations support prices, but a long - term bearish view is held if steel demand remains weak [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Prices were flat. Demand was fair, and supply showed different trends. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5][6]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices have rebounded in the short term but are expected to be bearish in the long term due to the expected increase in OPEC supply [8]. - **Asphalt**: It has stabilized slightly following oil prices. The market shows regional differences, and its fundamentals mainly follow oil price fluctuations [8]. - **PX**: It has rebounded with oil prices but remains in a weak oscillation pattern due to weak supply and demand [8]. - **PTA**: It maintains a weak oscillation pattern due to limited improvement in terminal orders and increased downstream inventory pressure [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It continues to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak supply - demand conditions [10][11]. - **Short - fiber**: It remains in a low - level oscillation, with limited export volume and weak domestic demand [11]. - **Methanol**: The 05 contract oscillates, while the 09 contract may present short - selling opportunities after a rebound [11]. - **PP**: It is expected to have an oscillatory recovery due to reduced supply pressure [11]. - **LLDPE**: The near - month contract is supported by low inventory, while the 09 contract faces medium - to - long - term pressure [11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Supported by strong demand and policy expectations, copper prices are expected to continue their oscillatory rebound [12]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic fundamentals are good, with significant inventory reduction. It has short - term rebound potential but is bearish in the medium term [12][13]. - **Tin**: Supply is gradually recovering but remains at a low level, and demand is differentiated. Tin prices are expected to rebound in the short term [13]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Low domestic inventory and potential planting delays support the price. The market's concern about the export supply chain has decreased [14]. - **Soybean Meal**: The recovery of domestic oil - mill operations is slow. The futures are supported, and the monthly spread is expected to be repaired [14]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is in the peak demand season, but the supply risk premium has decreased. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen [14]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The inventory of soybean oil is decreasing, while rapeseed oil faces high - inventory pressure and is at risk of a price decline [15]. - **Palm Oil**: Domestic inventory is low, and the price is affected by cost and international market conditions [16].

美国贸易代表办公室(USTR)代表格里尔8日围绕与日本关于关说措施的谈判表示，"感到能够扩大和改 善农产品的市场准入。"谈判中很可能将要求接纳美国产进口品，如何处理农产品或将成为焦点之一。 格里尔认为，"将在未来数周内讨论这些问题。"格里尔是在出席国会参议院财政委员会听证会时发表上 述言论的。格里尔与财政部长贝森特共同负责对日谈判。格里尔还透露已推进幕后磋商，"近几周已同 日方展开了数次协商。"农产品以外格里尔还提及工业制品，批评存在妨碍出口的结构性障碍。USTR认 为日本的汽车安全标准存在问题，可能将汽车设想为重要品类。预计日美谈判将围绕关税、非关税壁 垒、汇率等问题展开。(新浪财经) ...

美国白宫：近70个国家开始就关税进行谈判，如有利于美国工人并解决贸易逆差，将达成协议。 ...

智通财经4月8日电，美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔表示，关税谈判将按国家逐一进行。 ...