Group 1: Market Reactions - European stocks surged due to trade negotiation developments, with Germany's DAX index rising by 1.67% and France's CAC40 increasing by 1.21% [3] - The U.S. stock market was closed for Memorial Day, indicating a pause in trading activity [3] - The oil market is experiencing volatility, with Brent crude oil closing at $64.81, amid OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day [5] Group 2: Trade Negotiations - The U.S. is pressuring the EU to lower tariffs unilaterally, threatening a 20% punitive tariff if negotiations fail [3] - The EU is countering with a "cooperation agreement" aimed at standard recognition and trade simplification [3] - The EU has prepared a $100 billion retaliation list if trade talks collapse, posing risks to sectors like automotive and agriculture [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions - The situation between Russia and Ukraine remains tense, with recent drone attacks and continued support for Ukraine from Germany [3] - The potential for escalating geopolitical risks could lead to increased interest in safe-haven assets like gold and defense stocks [3] Group 4: Cryptocurrency Developments - Trump's media group plans to raise $3 billion to purchase Bitcoin, pushing its price to $110,000 [4] - This move raises concerns about potential conflicts of interest, as Trump promotes the U.S. as a cryptocurrency hub while investing in it [4][5] - The SEC's scrutiny could lead to significant repercussions for the cryptocurrency market [5] Group 5: Investment Strategies - The current market environment is likened to a high-stakes gamble, with opportunities in technology growth and cryptocurrency-related ETFs for risk-tolerant investors [5] - For conservative investors, gold ETFs are suggested as a more reliable option given the current geopolitical climate [5]

Core Insights - Geopolitical risks are rising, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Ongoing uncertainty in trade prospects is contributing to market volatility [1] - Traders are analyzing whether to adopt a "one-sided" or "volatile" trading strategy in response to current market conditions [1] Industry Analysis - The gold market is experiencing heightened interest due to external geopolitical factors [1] - Trade uncertainties are influencing investor sentiment and market dynamics [1] - The current trading environment is prompting discussions among traders regarding strategy adjustments [1]

Group 1 - The gold market is experiencing intense competition between bulls and bears, with multiple favorable factors supporting its long-term value despite short-term price volatility [1] - Geopolitical risks and tariff uncertainties are acting as a "double insurance," driving funds into gold as a core risk-hedging tool amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East and slow progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations [1] - The expectation of interest rate cuts and concerns over the long-term credibility of the US dollar are providing structural support for gold prices, as the market anticipates 1-2 rate cuts within the year [2] Group 2 - A significant price correction occurred in mid-May, with London gold prices dropping to $3,120 per ounce, a decline of over 8%, primarily driven by technical factors such as easing US-China tariffs and a rebound in the dollar index [4] - Wall Street institutions suggest that if the US enters a "stagflation" scenario, gold prices could potentially reach $4,500, indicating a long-term investment opportunity despite short-term selling pressure [4] - The company offers various incentives for new customers, including cash bonuses and trading rebates, to facilitate easier market entry and capitalize on potential market fluctuations [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Crude oil - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - The market is waiting for the results of this Wednesday's meeting, with reduced price fluctuations. Crude oil prices are currently oscillating in the low - range of $60 - 68, and the medium - to - long - term downward trend remains unchanged [1]. - Supply - side pressure is continuously accumulating. If the OPEC+ production increase policy is implemented in July, the total increase will reach 1.23 million barrels per day, and the global crude oil surplus may exceed 3 million barrels per day [2]. - Geopolitical factors have high popularity but low pricing impact on the market. Although there are concerns about conflict escalation, historical experience shows that the impact on oil prices is short - lived [2]. - The market is currently in a weak balance, with geopolitical risks offsetting supply - side pressures. In the medium - to - long - term, inventory accumulation caused by OPEC+ production increases is difficult to reverse [4]. Summary by Directory Market Structure - The report presents the WTI, Brent, and SC forward curves and their respective monthly spreads, but no specific analysis of these data is provided in the given text [1][15][17] Supply - OPEC+ has been over - producing in May and June, and the market expects the same increase in July. Saudi's production policy shift has undermined the alliance's discipline. If the policy is implemented in July, the total OPEC+ increase will be 1.23 million barrels per day. US shale oil production is also at a historical high, and the global crude oil surplus may exceed 3 million barrels per day [2]. - Russia has extended its gasoline export ban until the end of June, which has a limited impact on crude oil exports but eases market sentiment [2]. Demand - Although the easing of Sino - US trade frictions has injected short - term confidence into the demand side, the certainty of OPEC+ accelerating production increases has put pressure on the fundamentals [4]. Inventory - The EIA predicts that global commercial crude oil inventories will exceed 5.3 billion barrels in the third quarter, with a year - on - year increase of 12% [4]. Geopolitical Risks - There are concerns about a potential conflict between Israel and Iran. If Israel attacks, Iran may counter - attack in three ways, but the probability of blocking the Strait of Hormuz is low. The US Navy's deployment has reduced market concerns about a continuous supply shock [3]. Operation Suggestions - The market currently prices downward risks higher than upward risks. If there is an unexpected breakthrough in the Iran nuclear negotiations, it may cause a negative impact; conversely, the outbreak of conflict will bring short - term upward momentum. In the medium - to - long - term, every rebound is a good opportunity to enter a short position [4].

各位老铁早上好，这里是帮主郑重的隔夜市场解读时间。今儿带你们拆解昨夜资本市场的冰火两重天——这边黄金冲破3350美元创历史新高，那边苹果 却被特朗普的关税大刀砍得血流成河，这剧本比好莱坞大片还刺激！ 先说这出"苹果惊魂记"。特朗普老爷子又放大招，扬言要对海外生产的手机加征25%关税，吓得苹果股价单日暴跌3%，一周跌掉7.6%，市值蒸发近2000 亿美元。这场景让帮主想起2018年贸易战时的惊涛骇浪，但这次更狠——不仅苹果中枪，三星、谷歌全在射程之内。不过细品特朗普的话术，那句"在美 国建厂就免税"倒是暴露了真实意图，这哪是关税战，分明是逼着制造业回流的美版"腾笼换鸟"！ 转头看避险资产的狂欢。黄金一夜暴涨近2%，冲破3350美元大关，这走势让2020年疫情时的疯狂都显得温和。纽约期金周涨幅5.4%，创下俄乌冲突以来 最大单周涨幅。帮主深扒发现玄机：全球央行连续18个月增持黄金，中国4月增持量更是创三年新高，这分明是主权资本在用真金白银给美元霸权投不信 任票！ 中概股战场上演绝地求生。金龙指数顽强收红，哔哩哔哩逆势涨3%，但名创优品暴跌17%暴露软肋——出海企业的地缘风险正在飙升。帮主给铁子们划 重点：能扛住特 ...

乌克兰债券受和平进程拖累表现低迷 东欧邻国市场飙升 金十数据5月25日讯，由于特朗普促成和平协议的前景暗淡，乌克兰美元债券在2025年迄今给投资者带 来了超过10%的损失，为新兴和前沿市场中表现最差。而年初时由于对停火的押注，一些乌克兰债券价 格自去年8月重组以来几乎翻了一番，并提振了整个东欧市场。伦敦对冲基金Frontier Road转向企业债 券以规避地缘风险，美银虽维持超配建议但警告战事持续带来的"下行风险"，摩根士丹利预计冲突将延 续至2025年。"市场已回落至特朗普当选前水平，"安本投资董事Viktor Szabo指出。华沙、布拉格和布 达佩斯主要股指年内美元计价回报率均超30%，匈牙利福林、捷克克朗和波兰兹罗提领跑新兴市场货币 涨幅。但乌克兰2035年到期零息债券价格已从2月的70美分跌至50美分。 ...

国内到岸价整体回落，5月上半月集中到岸导致华东阵容率继续走高,码头降价出货。进口成本支撑松动盈加烧 厂外放有所增加,炼厂气价整体下调。上周PDH开工率随装置降负仍有回落,但月末有装置开始重启,关注化工 需求回升的节奏。现货端承压延续,盘面震荡偏弱为主。 | 《》 国技期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年05月23日 | | 原油 | 女女女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文文 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ★☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价走弱, SG07合约日内跌2.1%%。昨日有消息称OPEC+正在讨论6月1日是否继续以41.1万桶/天速度 快速增产,市场对原油供需宽松 ...

理性预期回归挤出情绪溢价，PX、PTA估值存回调修复压力 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 05月21日，PX 主力合约收6766.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨1.47%，基差 为-1.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4788.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨1.18%，基 差为112.0元/吨。 成本端，05月21日，布油主力合约收盘65.6美元/桶。WTI收62.25美元/ 桶。 市场继续关注俄乌、美伊局势，油价短期震荡格局对成本端支撑有限。涤 丝库存压力缓解，未来关注下游纱厂备货节奏。 1/8 二、产业链价格监测 | | 数据指标 | 2025-05-21 | 2025-05-20 | 変化 | 近日涨跌幅 | 走勢 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX期货 | 主力合约价格 | 6,766 | 6,668 | 98 | 1.47% | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current crude oil market features "weak reality, strong expectation." In the short - term, the price is under pressure, with WTI and Brent continuing weak oscillations. In the medium - term, the price center may gradually rise from a low level. In the long - term, the upward space is restricted. Overall, the oil price may maintain a pattern of "low - level oscillation with a slowly rising center," and the fluctuation range may break through if the Iran - US nuclear negotiation fails or geopolitical conflicts escalate [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Data Change Analysis - SC crude oil rose slightly to 470.1 yuan/barrel on May 21, up 1.01% from the previous day, indicating a marginal improvement in the market's demand expectation for the Asian region. WTI and Brent continued to decline, with WTI closing at $61.34/barrel (down 1.46%) and Brent at $64.58/barrel (down 1.55%), affected by inventory pressure and demand concerns in the European and American markets. - The SC - Brent spread strengthened significantly, rising from -$1.15/barrel to $0.65/barrel. The spread of SC near - month contracts (continuous - continuous 3) changed from backwardation to flat price (-0.9→0.0 yuan/barrel), indicating a short - term alleviation of supply - demand contradictions [3] 3.1.2 Supply, Demand and Inventory Dynamics - **Supply side**: OPEC+ may continue to increase production in July, but the increase may be weaker than expected. The supply increase has uncertainties due to Iraq's reservation on the energy agreement in the Kurdish region. EIA data shows that the US crude oil imports dropped to 110,000 barrels (previous value: 422,000 barrels), and the commissioned crude oil volume decreased to 89,000 barrels/day (previous value: 330,000 barrels/day), indicating a short - term supply contraction [4] - **Demand side**: The implied demand for US crude oil production rose to 19.291 million barrels/day (previous value: 18.735 million barrels/day), but the distillate fuel oil demand fell to 4.7703 million barrels/day (previous value: 5.2107 million barrels/day). The gasoline inventory decreased by 300,000 barrels, showing a structural differentiation in demand. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory increased by 843,000 barrels (previous value: 528,000 barrels), which may imply the government's concern about the medium - and long - term supply [4] - **Inventory**: The US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 1.328 million barrels unexpectedly (expected: -1.277 million barrels). High inventories in Cushing and globally suppress the upward space of oil prices [4] 3.1.3 Industry Chain and Price Trend Judgment - The current crude oil market shows the characteristics of "weak reality, strong expectation." In the short - term, the rising US commercial inventory, the decline in distillate fuel oil demand and the OPEC+ production increase expectation suppress the near - end price, and WTI and Brent continue weak oscillations. In the medium - term, the strengthening of SC crude oil and the repair of the near - month spread reflect the increasing restocking demand of Asian refineries. Coupled with the weakening expectation of the US economic recession and geopolitical risks, the oil price center may gradually rise from a low level. In the long - term, the accelerating energy transition and the slowing demand growth rate limit the upward space, and the pattern of oversupply has not reversed [5] 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Futures prices**: SC rose, WTI and Brent fell. The spreads of SC - Brent, SC - WTI strengthened, while the Brent - WTI spread narrowed slightly. The spread of SC continuous - continuous 3 changed from backwardation to flat price [6] - **Spot prices**: Most spot prices showed an upward trend, with different increases [6] - **Inventory**: The US commercial crude oil inventory increased, the Cushing inventory decreased, and the US Strategic Reserve inventory increased [6] - **开工**: The US refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume increased slightly [6] 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - **Futures prices**: FU and LU rose slightly, while NYMEX fuel oil fell slightly [7] - **Spot prices**: Most spot prices showed an upward trend, with different increases. The spreads between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuels in Singapore and China narrowed [7] - **Inventory**: The Singapore inventory decreased, while the US distillate inventories showed different changes [7] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Supply - The US EIA crude oil imports and commissioned crude oil volume decreased in the week ending May 16. Iraq's oil minister has reservations about the energy agreement in the Kurdish region. Turkey's shale oil reserves are estimated to be 6.1 billion barrels. OPEC+ may continue to increase production in July, but the increase may be weaker [8][9] 3.3.2 Demand - The implied demand for US crude oil production increased, while the distillate fuel oil demand decreased. The渣油 market is under pressure [10] 3.3.3 Inventory - The US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased, the new - formula gasoline inventory decreased, the heating oil inventory decreased, and the crude oil inventory increased unexpectedly [11] 3.3.4 Market Information - The prices of Shanghai gold and silver futures rose, and the SC crude oil futures price showed different trends. The EU is discussing the oil price cap on Russia, and South Africa plans to increase fuel taxes. The shipping and wholesale markets of fuel oil are not operating well [12] 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil, US and OPEC crude oil production, refinery operating rates, and inventories, etc., with data sources from WIND, EIA, etc. [13][15][17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly. Shanghai rubber 2509 and synthetic rubber 2507 are likely to maintain a slightly stronger and oscillating trend on Thursday, May 22, 2025 [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger; Overall view: running strongly [1]. - **Core Logic**: Macro factors have improved, boosting the confidence of rubber market bulls. However, new rubber supply is gradually increasing as the new rubber tapping season begins in domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas. Meanwhile, the procurement demand is expected to increase as the operating rate of the downstream tire industry returns to normal. Against the backdrop of improved supply - demand structure, Shanghai rubber futures may maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend. On the night of Wednesday, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures slightly rose 0.61% to 14,945 yuan/ton [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger; Overall view: running strongly [1]. - **Core Logic**: Although Sino - US economic and trade relations have made substantial progress and macro factors have turned optimistic, the US debt crisis in June is approaching, which may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating production, and the crude oil demand is expected to be weak. However, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has become chaotic again, increasing geopolitical risks. With the recovery of crude oil premium, the 2507 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures slightly rose 0.62% to 12,145 yuan/ton on the night of Wednesday. It may maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend on Thursday [7].