2025 年 9 月 24 日 股指期货将震荡整理 黄金、白银期货价格再创上市以来新 高 原油、燃料油期货将震荡偏强 豆粕期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2512 阻力位 4518 和 4545 点，支撑位 4444 和 4408 点；IH2512 阻力位 2940 和 2955 点，支撑位 2898 和 2884 点；IC2512 阻力位 7035 和 7081 点，支撑位 6881 和 6785 点；IM2512 阻力位 72 ...

Group 1 - The domestic energy sector in the futures market showed significant gains, with crude oil futures opening at 479.2 yuan/barrel and reaching a high of 485.3 yuan, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.87% [1] - Current market sentiment indicates a strong performance in crude oil, with expectations of a volatile upward trend in the near term [1] - Various institutions have differing views on the future of crude oil prices, with some suggesting a bearish outlook due to weakening supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical risks [1][2] Group 2 - Iraq has preliminarily approved a plan to resume oil exports from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region through Turkey, potentially adding at least 230,000 barrels per day to the supply [2] - Recent drone attacks in Ukraine have disrupted Russian oil exports, heightening the risk of production cuts, while the market anticipates further sanctions on certain European countries [2] - OPEC's production increase remains a key focus for market participants, as it could significantly impact oil supply and pricing [2]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged significantly, with New York futures breaking through $3,800 per ounce and domestic jewelry prices nearing 1,100 yuan per gram, indicating a strong bullish trend driven by multiple factors [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Drivers - The potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates 1-2 times this year is favorable for gold, as lower rates typically boost gold's appeal [1][2] - Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased risk aversion among investors, further driving demand for gold [1][3] - Global central banks are actively increasing their gold reserves, with China's central bank having added to its holdings for ten consecutive months, surpassing 2,300 tons, which reinforces gold's status as a safe haven [1][2] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Optimists believe that the gold bull market is just beginning, while cautious investors warn of potential pullbacks after rapid price increases [1][3] - The influx of algorithmic trading and quantitative funds can lead to volatile price movements, likening the market to a roller coaster [1][2] - The upcoming change in leadership at the Federal Reserve may signal further easing, maintaining a positive long-term outlook for gold [1][3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - For ordinary investors, a conservative approach is recommended, with gold ETFs and paper gold being suitable for flexible allocation [1][2] - Physical gold bars or jewelry are more suited for long-term value preservation [1][3] - High-leverage strategies such as futures and options trading are advised against for inexperienced investors [1][2]

Core Insights - The report indicates a strong upward trend in crude oil prices due to renewed geopolitical risks, particularly related to ongoing attacks in Ukraine and potential sanctions against Russia [5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report presents a short-term and medium-term outlook for crude oil, both indicating a "震荡偏强" (strong oscillation) trend, with a specific focus on the recent geopolitical tensions affecting oil supply [5]. Price Movements - On the recent trading day, the domestic crude oil futures contract (2511) saw a slight increase of 1.47%, closing at 482.3 yuan per barrel, suggesting a continuation of the strong oscillation trend in the following days [5]. Geopolitical Factors - The report highlights that the ongoing military actions in Ukraine against Russian oil facilities and the potential for extended sanctions from the U.S. are key drivers of the current market dynamics, contributing to the upward pressure on crude oil prices [5].

Market Overview - The market is betting on a 90% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in October, combined with ongoing geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar, which has driven gold prices to a daily high of $3,790.89 [1] Technical Analysis - Daily Level: The Bollinger Bands are opening upwards, with gold prices operating below the upper band. The MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover, while the RSI indicator is in an overbought state, indicating a potential need for caution regarding a price pullback [1] - 4-Hour Level: The Bollinger Bands are expanding, with gold prices near the upper band. The MACD indicator is bullish, and the RSI is also in an overbought state, suggesting a need for caution regarding a price pullback [1] - 1-Hour Level: The Bollinger Bands are opening upwards, with gold prices operating below the upper band. The MACD indicator shows an initial bearish crossover, and the RSI indicates a pullback state, suggesting a slowdown in short-term upward momentum and a need for caution regarding a price decline [1] Future Gold Trading Strategy - Long Positions: Aggressive traders can consider entering long positions near the support level of $3,600 per ounce, while cautious traders may wait for stabilization around $3,500 per ounce before entering long positions [1] - Short Positions: Aggressive traders can consider short positions near the resistance level of $3,800 per ounce, while cautious traders may wait for stabilization around $4,000 per ounce before entering short positions [1] Futures and Gold Trading Recommendations - Shanghai Gold Futures: Driven by expectations of a Fed rate cut and geopolitical risks, the daily trend is strongly bullish. Traders should avoid chasing high prices and consider entering long positions if prices stabilize around 850 CNY [1] - RFT Gold: Following the rise in international gold prices, the bullish trend continues. Traders should avoid chasing high prices and consider entering long positions if prices stabilize around 840 CNY [1] - Accumulated Gold: The ongoing Fed easing expectations and geopolitical risks, along with central bank gold purchases, indicate a clear long-term upward trend. Traders should avoid chasing high prices and consider gradual buying if prices stabilize around 845 CNY per gram [1] - Gold T+D: Following the strong upward movement in international gold prices, the bullish trend is clear. Traders should avoid chasing high prices and consider entering long positions if prices stabilize around 850 CNY [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to three main factors: the initiation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, escalating geopolitical risks, and a dual-driven demand from both central banks and private consumers [3][4]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The Federal Reserve has begun a rate cut cycle, with a 25 basis point cut in September and expectations for two more cuts this year, which diminishes the attractiveness of the dollar and enhances gold's appeal [3]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have heightened global risk aversion, leading to increased investment in gold as a safe haven [3]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for ten consecutive months, while domestic demand for gold bars and jewelry has surged, defying the typical price-demand relationship [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Market Outlook - Despite the rapid increase in gold prices, long-term investors should remain calm, as the fundamental trend remains intact with ongoing rate cuts and global uncertainties supporting gold's long-term logic [5]. - Short-term caution is advised as some technical indicators are showing overbought conditions, with potential price corrections expected if gold reaches around $3,795 [6]. - For ordinary investors, it is recommended to avoid leverage and focus on actual needs, with gold bars and ETFs being more cost-effective than jewelry, while also considering gold mining stocks for potential gains [7]. Group 3: Conclusion and Investment Approach - The new high in gold prices signals a re-evaluation of global risk by investors, suggesting that long-term investors should not engage in panic buying or selling but rather maintain composure and consider profit-taking or gradual accumulation during price corrections [8].

Group 1 - Gold prices have reached a historic high of $3,775 per ounce as of September 23, with a year-to-date increase of 43% [2] - The largest gold ETF, SPDR, has seen its holdings rise to 1,000.57 tons, reflecting strong market confidence in gold [2] - Gold stocks have also surged, with notable increases in companies like Xiaocheng Technology and Zhongjin Gold, which reached historical highs [3] Group 2 - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which have lowered the opportunity cost of holding gold, alongside a weakening dollar and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [4] - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to trend upward, supported by expectations of further interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks [5] - The domestic gold jewelry prices have also increased, with significant rises in prices for brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Feng Xiang [6] Group 3 - The surge in gold prices has led to increased interest from domestic asset management institutions, with a notable rise in the number of funds incorporating gold ETFs into their portfolios [8] - The recent regulatory changes allow insurance companies to invest in gold, potentially bringing an estimated 200 billion yuan into the gold market [8] - The favorable market conditions have created opportunities for gold companies to enter the capital market, exemplified by Zijin Mining's plans for a public offering of its subsidiary [9]

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold has reached historical highs, indicating a shift in its market status from a traditional safe-haven asset to a "credit hedge tool" [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In September 2025, spot gold in London surpassed $3,786 per ounce, while New York gold futures climbed to $3,818 per ounce, marking a significant milestone [2] - The total market capitalization of the gold sector reached 5.02 trillion yuan, with a single-day trading volume exceeding 6.4 million contracts on September 23 [2] - Central banks globally are expected to purchase over 1,000 tons of gold in 2025, with emerging markets like China and India increasing their holdings [2] Group 2: Price Drivers - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in 2025 has directly catalyzed the rise in gold prices, as lower real interest rates reduce the holding costs of gold [3] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the situation in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened demand for gold as a safe haven, with historical data showing a 2.3% increase in gold prices for every 10-point rise in the geopolitical risk index [4] - The deterioration of the U.S. debt situation and the weaponization of the dollar have undermined global trust in the dollar, activating gold's "credit substitute" property and leading to structural buying from central banks [5] Group 3: Future Price Projections - Short-term forecasts suggest gold prices may reach $4,000 within 1-2 years, supported by central bank purchases even if the Fed delays further rate cuts [6] - In the medium term (3-5 years), if a BRICS currency system materializes and U.S. dollar dominance weakens, gold prices could potentially exceed $5,000 [6] - Long-term trends indicate that the current upward momentum, which began in 2018, may continue for an extended period, with extreme scenarios suggesting gold prices could challenge even higher targets in the event of a global debt crisis [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual products, the ratings are as follows: - **Crude Oil**: Oscillating weakly [7] - **Asphalt**: Oscillating weakly [8] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Oscillating weakly [8] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Oscillating weakly [10] - **PX**: Oscillating weakly [12] - **PTA**: Oscillating weakly [13] - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillating weakly [14] - **Styrene**: Oscillating weakly [17] - **MEG**: Oscillating weakly [19] - **Short Fiber**: Oscillating weakly [22] - **Bottle Chip**: Oscillating weakly [23] - **Methanol**: Short - term oscillation [26] - **Urea**: Oscillation [27] - **LLDPE**: Short - term oscillation [30] - **PP**: Short - term oscillation, weakly [32] - **PL**: Short - term oscillation, weakly [32] - **PVC**: Partial oscillation [35] - **Caustic Soda**: Medium - long - term partial oscillation [36] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International crude oil futures continued to decline on Monday. If the EU introduces strong sanctions, oil prices may fluctuate. Chemical prices also continued to fall, but some varieties with good fundamentals showed positive arbitrage signs. The energy and chemical industry as a whole will continue the pattern of oscillating consolidation [1][2][3]. - For each specific product, the prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical risks, and cost support, showing different trends of oscillation, weakening, or strengthening [7][8][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks should be monitored. In the context of OPEC+ accelerating production increase, the weak - reality pattern is reflected in inventory year - on - year. The resumption of oil exports from the Kurdish region in Iraq may improve the implementation rate of Iraq's production increase. Oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with risks mainly concentrated in the geopolitical area [7]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price oscillates below 3,500 yuan/ton. Saudi Arabia's push for OPEC+ to continue increasing production and geopolitical escalation offset the decline in demand. The pricing power of asphalt futures may return to Shandong. The current market expects high - start and low - inventory to digest production pressure, but the invisible inventory in South China is a concern [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price oscillates weakly. Saudi Arabia's push for OPEC+ to increase production, geopolitical escalation, and a significant increase in Russia's fuel oil exports in early September have led to a weakening of the fuel oil cracking spread. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to deteriorate [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate weakly. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. It may face the trend of increased supply and decreased demand and maintain low - valuation operation [10]. - **PX**: Supply - demand margin weakens, cost has no obvious support, and processing fees are under pressure. Oil prices are weak, and the chemical market sentiment is poor. The delay of some PX device maintenance and the increase in downstream PTA device maintenance drag down PX demand to some extent [12]. - **PTA**: Cost support is weak, and there is no continuous positive in supply - demand. Cost performance is poor, and the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. The downstream demand is affected by the National Day holiday, and there is no obvious positive support [13]. - **Pure Benzene**: The future outlook is still pessimistic, and the price returns to decline. Although there was a short - term boost at the beginning of the week, with the implementation of interest - rate cut benefits and the impact of news such as the delay of pure benzene maintenance and import transactions, the price declined. Before the end of the year, it is difficult to destock, especially with high import pressure in October [14]. - **Styrene**: There is insufficient fundamental positive, and the price resumes decline. The contradiction lies in the difficulty of destocking high inventories in the upstream and downstream. Although there is a destocking pattern from September to October, it has limited effect on the current high inventory, and it will return to the end - of - year inventory accumulation cycle from November to December [17]. - **MEG**: Before the festival, the port shipment performance is poor, and the port inventory accumulates. Cost support is not obvious, and the market sentiment is bearish. The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken marginally in the long - term [18]. - **Short Fiber**: Inventory is slightly destocked, and processing fees are firm. The support from upstream polyester raw materials is insufficient, and the absolute price mainly follows the raw materials to fluctuate. The processing fees have strengthened bottom support during the peak season [22]. - **Bottle Chip**: Low prices stimulate some factories to purchase, and processing fees operate stably. The cost support from upstream polyester raw materials is insufficient, and the absolute price oscillates and declines. However, due to its own limited driving force, the decline is limited, and processing fees expand passively [23]. - **Methanol**: There is still a certain stocking demand before the festival, and the methanol futures price oscillates and declines. The price of upstream manufacturers has decreased, but the low inventory level in the inland area and the stocking demand before the National Day support the market. There is a contradiction between high inventory pressure in the port in the near - term and the expected overseas shutdown in the far - term [26]. - **Urea**: The supply - demand pattern of looseness is difficult to change, and the futures price is continuously under pressure along the cost line. On September 22, the supply - side daily output and operating rate continued to increase, while the demand - side support was insufficient, and the export expectation was weakening [27]. - **LLDPE**: The downstream transactions still increase in volume, and the price oscillates and declines. Affected by factors such as oil price oscillation, macro - atmosphere, and supply - demand situation, although the downstream demand may have certain support before the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, the overall fundamental situation is still under pressure [30]. - **PP**: It oscillates and declines, and attention should be paid to the support strength at the previous low. Affected by oil price and macro - factors, it has reached near the low point in June, and there is still some support. Although there is some downstream restocking demand before the festival, the supply - side pressure still exists [31]. - **PL**: It follows PP to fluctuate and oscillates and declines in the short - term. The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, and the willingness to further reduce prices is limited. The PP - PL spread oscillates around 500, and the volatility of PL may increase marginally [32]. - **PVC**: Market sentiment declines, and it should be treated with caution and weakly. At the macro - level, the market sentiment is prone to fluctuate. At the micro - level, the PVC fundamental situation is under pressure, and the cost increase slows down. The production may decline, the downstream demand improves, and the signing of orders improves [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: Strong expectation but weak reality, and the futures price is partial to oscillation. At the macro - level, the market sentiment is prone to fluctuate. At the micro - level, the fundamental situation of caustic soda still has pressure, but the demand expectation is good. The inventory receipt volume of Weiqiao is high, and the purchase price has been lowered. However, the expected stocking of alumina for caustic soda in 2026Q1 is strong [36]. 3.2 Product Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring**: It shows the cross - period spreads, basis, and cross - product spreads of various products, reflecting the price relationships and changes among different products and different contract periods [38][39][40]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: Although specific data are not detailed in the summary part, it is expected to further analyze the basis and spread of various chemical products to provide references for market participants [41]. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, characteristic index (including commodity 20 index and industrial product index), and sector index (energy index) show different trends of increase and decrease, reflecting the overall performance of the commodity market on September 22, 2025 [281][283].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials and increasing geopolitical risks, leading to expectations of heightened volatility in the gold market this week [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold prices rose by 2% to reach a new high, influenced by dovish remarks from Fed officials, particularly from the aggressive dovish stance of Milan, who suggested a continued rate cut at 50 basis points [1]. - The market sentiment remains optimistic due to geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the recognition of Palestine by several countries and Israel's aggressive stance [2]. - The expectation of increased volatility in gold prices is anticipated this week, especially with upcoming speeches from Fed Chair Powell and the latest core PCE inflation data [2]. Group 2: Investment Sentiment - Despite the high gold price of $3,700, there are no compelling reasons to short gold, as it remains a dominant monetary asset in global financial markets [3]. - Central banks are expected to continue purchasing gold due to diminishing confidence in the US dollar, driven by the US government's push for significant rate cuts amid rising inflation pressures [3]. - The current market environment is described as a "perfect storm" for gold and silver, with increasing appeal for safe-haven assets amid political divisions in the US and escalating tensions between NATO and Russia [3].