美国通胀降温，4 月 CPI 同比 2.3%，为自 2021 年 2 月以来最低水平。沙特 承诺向美国投资 6000 亿美元，覆盖军火、科技、波音飞机、基建和数据中心。 美国或允许阿联酋进口超百万英伟达先进芯片，支持 OpenAI 在联酋建数据 中心。贝森特：欧盟可能在贸易方面存在"集体行动问题"。整体来看，中 美谈判进程超预期，而市场表现冷静，在关税前的位置附近，没有明显上探， 股指或震荡运行。 ◆ 策略建议： 震荡运行 金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 对于仓位较低或者久期较低的机构，左侧交易的动力或者空间可能较为充足， 短期内可能体现为一波 5BP 的波段交易。但如果本身着眼于更长趋势交易的 投资者，当前的位置并未充分反应宏观形势的阶段性好转带来的预期变化， 参与的赔率仍然偏低。后续还有政府债密集供给、税期和经济数据等因素的 轮番扰动，市场波折尚未完全结束，关注短期内市场机构充分调仓后进一步 的方向选择。 ◆ 策略建议： 短期看好 研究咨询部 2025-05-14 公司资质 彭博 从业 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in the copper, aluminum, and nickel markets, with specific attention to the impact of U.S. budget surpluses and tariff negotiations between China and the U.S. [1] - In April, the U.S. budget surplus reached $258.4 billion, an increase from $209.5 billion in the same period last year, while customs tariff revenue hit a record high of $16.3 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of $9.2 billion, or 130% [1] - The LME copper inventory decreased by 1,025 tons to 190,750 tons, indicating a tightening supply [1] Group 2 - Domestic demand for copper is currently stable, but expectations of a seasonal slowdown may lead to a gradual decrease in end-user orders [1] - Short-term copper prices are expected to be supported, projected to rise to the range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, although attention should be paid to downstream acceptance at high price levels and the fundamentals of supply and inventory [1] - The aluminum market shows a mixed trend, with the AO2509 closing at 2,832 yuan/ton, up 0.6%, and the AL2506 closing at 19,935 yuan/ton, up 0.91% [1] Group 3 - The LME nickel price fell by 1.89% to $15,550 per ton, while the SHFE nickel price dropped by 1.26% to 124,180 yuan/ton [1] - LME nickel inventory increased by 84 tons to 197,754 tons, while domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 204 tons to 23,222 tons [1] - The nickel market is experiencing strong prices for nickel ore, but the demand side is seeing inventory accumulation, indicating a potential pressure on nickel prices if domestic primary nickel continues to accumulate [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The issuance scale of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds last week was 371 billion, 105.5 billion, and 102.1 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of 195.6 billion, 67.2 billion, and -27.5 billion [1] - The total issuance scale of non-financial credit bonds was 163.7 billion, with a net financing amount of 3 billion [1] Group 2: Liquidity Tracking - Last week, the net withdrawal through reverse repos was 781.7 billion, with funds initially tightening and then loosening [3] - This week, there will be 836.1 billion in reverse repos and 125 billion in MLF maturing, while government bond issuance will accelerate alongside the release of 1 trillion in reserve requirement cuts [3] Group 3: Policy and Fundamentals - The central bank announced a reserve requirement cut of 50 basis points, a policy interest rate cut of 10 basis points, and a 25 basis point cut for structural tools [4] - In April, dollar-denominated exports increased by 8.1% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, while CPI was -0.1% and PPI was -2.7%, both in line with expectations [4] Group 4: Equity Market - A-shares rose again last week due to post-holiday effects, US-China negotiations, and the India-Pakistan conflict, with major indices recovering all losses since the trade war began in April [6] - The total A-share financing balance reached 1,797.138 billion, an increase of 5.833 billion compared to April 29 [6] Group 5: Debt Market Strategy Outlook - The first quarter monetary policy report indicates a shift towards encouraging banks to increase credit issuance, suggesting a continued loose liquidity environment [7] - The market is concerned about the impact of tariff shocks on exports, but there is a clear supportive policy stance expected to hedge against export declines [7]

终端需求放缓，盘面弱势难改 煤焦周度报告 20250512 正信期货研究院 黑色产业组 研究员：杨辉 | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭 | 价格 | 国内政策提振有限，盘面大幅下跌；二轮提涨搁置，现货暂稳 | | | 供给 | 焦企盈利继续修复，焦炭供应维持高位 | | | 需求 | 铁水增长停滞，后期有下滑预期；投机情绪弱化，出口利润下滑，建材现货日成交量较低 | | | 库存 | 全环节降库，总库存下滑 | | | 利润 | 焦企盈利继续修复，焦炭盘面利润小幅下滑 | | | 基差价差 | 焦炭09升水转为基本平水，9-1价差略走强 | | | 总结 | 上周国内宏观政策落地，地产方面未出新的实质性利好，对黑色提振有限；而五大材减产却累库，表需下滑超预期，市场情绪转弱，双焦重回跌势。截 至周五收盘，焦炭09合约跌6.47%至1446.5，焦煤09合约跌5.39%至877.5。焦炭方面，现货暂稳，焦企盈利尚可，开工率维持高稳。需求方面，铁水虽 维持高位，但基本停止增长，短期原料刚需尚有支撑，然终端需求放缓，铁水后期有下滑压力。盘面大跌后，贸易商投机情绪 ...

宏观 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 12 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陈江月 执业证书：S1030520060001 电话：0755-83199599-9055 邮箱：chenjy@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 中美谈判启动带动市场乐观预期 [Table_ReportType] 宏观周报（5 月第 2 周） [Table_S 核心观点： ummary] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 经济预测（一致预期） 单位（%） 2409E 24E GDP（Q3E） CPI PPI 工业增加值增速 固定投资增速 社消增速 出口增速 进口增速 M2 增速 社融增速 数据来源：万得资讯 1) 权益：上周市场放量上涨。关税动态方面，五一假期期间， 中美谈判现乐观预期，带动市场放量上涨。5 月 10 日，中美 经贸高层会谈开始在瑞士日内瓦开始举行，预计后续陆续取得 进展，但谈判进程预计较为缓慢，二季度关税对外需影响仍然 ...

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a mild rebound, influenced by the recent fund regulations that are being digested by investors [1][2] - The new fund regulations are expected to reshape the A-share market dynamics, as fund managers will adopt a more conservative approach to stock selection to maintain their income [2] - The sudden rise in bank stocks is attributed to fund managers needing to increase their holdings in this sector to meet performance benchmarks [2] Group 2 - Sectors that have been heavily bought by funds, such as technology stocks, are facing selling pressure as fund managers rebalance their portfolios [2][8] - The impact of the new regulations will take time to manifest, but the overall trend remains bullish for both stocks and bonds due to a loose monetary and credit environment [5][8] - Despite expectations of interest rate cuts benefiting bonds, long-term bond prices have not seen significant increases, indicating that credit easing is offsetting the effects of monetary easing [5] Group 3 - The recent regulatory measures aim to stabilize the A-share market, reducing the likelihood of significant declines [8] - Investors are advised to focus on longer-term trends rather than short-term fluctuations, as large institutional investors are accumulating positions quietly [8][10] - Understanding institutional trading strategies is crucial for investors to capitalize on market movements and avoid common pitfalls [12][17]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The current market is in a rebound phase, expected to last for about a month, with a target height of around 3,400 points, followed by a potential second adjustment to around 3,200 points later in June to July [1][5][8] - Compared to 2018-2019, the current economic situation has improved, with a stronger RMB exchange rate and a domestic policy cycle leaning towards stabilizing or even increasing leverage [1][6] - The market is still in a bull market cycle, with tariff shocks being likened to historical black swan events, suggesting a potential recovery of losses from mid-March to early April [1][7] Core Insights and Arguments - The rebound is primarily driven by policy expectations and the potential for US-China negotiations, with the market likely to recover most of the declines from late March to early April [2][12] - The current economic conditions are significantly better than in 2018-2019, with improvements in consumer and growth industry profits, and a stabilizing manufacturing sector [6][9] - The market's structural profit-making effect remains, with increasing opportunities in sectors such as AI, new consumption, and robotics [1][9] Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The second adjustment in the market is expected to occur due to the lingering impact of tariffs on corporate profits, despite the market having recovered some index-level impacts [2][5][8] - The current growth stock bull market differs from historical patterns, suggesting a need for internal switching between high and low growth stocks, and a phased allocation to value themes to manage volatility [14][15] - Long-term investment strategies should focus on sectors with growth potential and stable performance, such as new consumption, military, non-ferrous metals, and banking [11][10] Future Market Predictions - The market is anticipated to continue its rebound, with a potential peak around 3,400 points before a second adjustment to approximately 3,200 points [5][16] - The sustainability of the current rebound is contingent on the outcomes of US-China negotiations and domestic policy developments, with close monitoring required for timely strategy adjustments [12][16]

Group 1: Report Information - Reported variety: Shanghai Lead [1] - Writing time: April 16, 2025 [1] - Review cycle: Daily [1] - Researcher: Cao Baiquan [2] - Consulting license number: Z0019820 [2] Group 2: Core Views - In the macro - aspect, the change in Trump's underlying demands for tariffs may be the reason for his fluctuating attitude, and there is an objective probability that China and the US will return to the negotiation table [3] - In the supply - demand aspect, on the supply side, due to new production capacity in 2025, the supply of lead concentrates is expected to increase by 1.5%, but low processing fees and a shortage of scrap batteries affect the supply volume; on the demand side, the replacement policy boosts the demand for electric bicycles and improves data center storage, but the penetration of lithium batteries continuously squeezes market share, and overall demand is still in the off - season and mainly for rigid needs [3] - In the technical aspect, from the hourly line, the market sentiment has declined, leading to continuous drops in futures prices; from the daily line, the futures price has fallen after breaking through a new resistance level; in the short term, the price may maintain a range - bound operation [3]