Core Points - The Republican Party is struggling to secure votes for Trump's tax bill, with rising debt and increasing political divisions [1][2] - The Senate has initiated debate on the "Big Beautiful" bill with a narrow 51-49 vote, but the bill's future remains uncertain due to Democratic opposition [1][2] - Elon Musk publicly criticized the bill, claiming it would destroy millions of jobs and cause significant strategic harm to the country [1][3] Summary by Sections Bill's Core Content Raises Debt Concerns - The bill aims to extend the large tax cuts implemented during Trump's first term, which is a priority for him upon his return to the political scene [2] - To fund the tax cuts and increase military and border security spending, the bill proposes significant cuts to healthcare and social welfare programs [2] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the current version of the bill will increase U.S. national debt by over $3.2 trillion over the next decade, surpassing historical debt levels from World War II [2] Musk's Opposition and Party Divisions Intensify - Musk's criticism adds complexity to the bill's advancement, labeling it as "absurd and destructive" while favoring traditional industries at the expense of future sectors [3] - Internal divisions within the Republican Party are evident, with some senators, including Thom Tillis, opposing the bill due to its deep cuts to Medicaid [4] Legislative Process Uncertainty - Despite the Senate starting the debate, the procedural vote is just the first step, and the final passage of the bill remains uncertain [5] - If the Senate passes the bill, the House must approve the amendments before it can be sent to the President for signing [5]

智通财经APP获悉，根据无党派机构美国国会预算办公室(CBO)的最新估计，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的 税收和支出方案将导致美国十年内赤字增加近3.3万亿美元。 美国国会预算办公室对所谓的"大而美法案"(One Big Beautiful Bill Act)的评估结果显示，与现行法律的 基准情况相比，到2034年，该法案将导致财政收入减少4.5万亿美元，支出减少1.2万亿美元。 根据共和党的要求，参议院的这项法案被评估为在十年内相较于现行政策基准可节省5076亿美元。共和 党议员一直试图利用这种会计手段永久性地延长特朗普2017年的所得税减免政策，并将其成本评估为 零。 根据美国联合税务委员会周六的估计，该法案包括价值4.5万亿美元的减税措施。 共和党人正在采用和解程序试图凭借简单多数票通过这项重大法案，但在该程序中使用现行政策基准来 衡量成本的做法史无前例。通常情况下，一项法案的成本是根据其在现行法律框架下对联邦预算的影响 来衡量的。但共和党人却想改变这一程序，他们假定现行政策无限期地保持不变。 该法案的成本一直是财政保守派面临的一大难题。由于议员们提出的修改要求相互矛盾，该法案在参议 院遭遇重重阻力。随后，该 ...

证券研究报告：宏观报告 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《出口展现韧性，中美谈判进展或促风 险偏好修复》 - 2025.06.10 宏观观点 海外宏观周报：美国通胀数据缓和 ⚫ 核心观点： 发布时间：2025-06-16 | 1 海外宏观数据跟踪 4 | | --- | | 1.1 上周重要事件与数据跟踪 4 | | 1.2 本周重要数据与事件 8 | | 2 美联储观点跟踪 9 | | 3 风险提示 9 | 周三公布的美国通胀数据好于预期，反映前期补库行为可能部分 抵消了关税影响。从分项上看，领先指标新租约租金数据指示，核心 服务中的住房分项预计仍将持续回落。同时，申领失业金人数上升显 示劳动力市场正在松动，或将进一步拖累核心服务 CPI 中的其他分 项。中东局势升级为油价带来一定的上行风险，但鉴于双方实力差距， 地缘政治对油价的影响可能偏向短期。美联储方面，尽管通胀风险缓 和，但关税影响或 ...

对于美债失控的问题，特朗普不是没有注意到，他也曾尝试通过一些政策来挽救，比如大举推动裁员工作，试图降低联邦政府开支。加征关税，除了逼大量 国家进口美国商品，也有其他目的，就是想要通过吸纳关税，来弥补美国政府的财政赤字。 但是以上政策当下不是失败，就是走在失败的路上。"政府效率部"裁员裁到自己的负责人干不下去了，至于关税政策，如今特朗普连日本都拿捏不了，日本 首相石破茂已经不止一次明确表示不会对美方让步！更离谱的是什么呢？特朗普一边想尽了办法向别国抢钱，另一边却还想在国内减税，更提高军费。这种 让全球为几亿美国人不劳而获甚至醉生梦死生活买单的行径，无疑是国际社会不能容忍的。 此地无银三百两！美财长公开预告美债最终结局，可信吗？特朗普彻底背叛自己的竞选承诺，或将引发怎样的后果？ 日前，美国财政部长贝森特在接受美媒采访之际，明确表示美国永远不会违约，尽管他承认美国正处于警戒线上，但"永远不会碰壁"。贝森特所提的不会， 是针对美债现状做出的承诺。在这里，贝森特预告美债最终结局，绝不会违约，颇有一种此地无银三百两的意味，他不说还好，越是这么解释，越是等同于 承认，如今美债正面临巨大危机！ 今年4月，美债规模突破36.2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The binding of the Trump administration's tariff and tax - cut policies will become more obvious, and it is highly likely that the two policies will either pass or be rejected simultaneously [2][11] - The US employment market is operating stably. In May, employment signals were contradictory, but non - farm employment increased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the weekly wage index growth rate is close to the pre - pandemic level, which may not change the downward trend of core inflation [2][14] - The focus of monetary policy lies in the persistence of the impact of tariffs on inflation [2][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 High - frequency Data Panoramic Scan - CBO estimates that the OBBBA may lead to a reduction of $3.7 trillion in federal fiscal revenue and $1.3 trillion in expenditure from 2025 - 2034, along with $55.1 billion in debt costs, resulting in an increase of about $3 trillion in government debt. However, tariffs may reduce the deficit by $2.8 trillion from 2025 - 2035, but will also cause negative economic impacts and inflation in the next two years [2][10] - The Trump administration's tariff policy faces legal challenges, and the OBBBA is still under discussion in the Senate. The binding of tariff and tax - cut policies will be stronger [2][11] - In May, the US employment market had contradictory signals. ADP employment increased slightly, while non - farm employment grew strongly. Non - farm employment increased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the non - farm hourly wage growth rate was stable [2][14] - From June 2 - 7, 2025, agricultural product prices mostly declined, and commodity prices showed mixed trends. For example, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.55% week - on - week, and the price of Brent crude oil futures increased by 1.60% week - on - week [2] 3.2 High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - Multiple charts show the trend comparison between high - frequency data and important macro - indicators such as PPI, CPI, and export volume, but specific analysis is not provided in the text [22][28][29] 3.3 Important High - frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - Charts display the relationship between US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth, initial jobless claims and unemployment rate, same - store sales growth and PCE year - on - year, etc., as well as the implied prospects of interest rate hikes or cuts by the Federal Reserve and the ECB, but specific analysis is not provided in the text [83][85][87] 3.4 Seasonal Trends of High - frequency Data - Multiple charts show the seasonal trends of high - frequency data such as 30 - city commercial housing transaction area, LME copper spot settlement price, and production material price index, but specific analysis is not provided in the text [94][96][100] 3.5 High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - Charts show the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, but specific analysis is not provided in the text [147][151]

Group 1: Macro Economic Trends - In May, the implied probability of a U.S. recession dropped from 63% at the end of April to 29% by June 6, indicating improved market sentiment[1] - The Federal Reserve's implied rate cut expectations decreased from 4.1 times to 2.2 times, reflecting a more optimistic outlook[1] - U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly, with the 10-year yield increasing by 34 basis points to 4.51% due to concerns over fiscal sustainability and a rapid rise in Japanese bond yields[1][19] Group 2: Domestic Economic Developments - The domestic economy is transitioning from "old forces" to "new forces," with signs of slowing recovery in May, as retail sales growth fell to 5.1%[2][32] - The broad fiscal expenditure growth rate increased to 12.9% in April, providing strong support for the economy[2][46] - A series of financial policies were announced on May 7, including a surprise reserve requirement ratio cut, aimed at stabilizing market confidence[2][46] Group 3: Trade and Policy Uncertainties - The U.S. is facing uncertainties regarding tariff policies and tax reforms, with key decisions expected around mid-June[3] - The second round of U.S.-China trade negotiations is set to begin on June 9, focusing on tariff corridors and export mechanisms[4] - The potential adjustment of the fiscal budget by the National People's Congress in June is a critical area to watch for its impact on economic support[3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the "Beautiful Act" and its implications on the U.S. economy and fiscal policy. Core Insights and Arguments - The "Beautiful Act" is expected to significantly expand the U.S. fiscal deficit over the next decade, particularly between 2025 and 2028, with 2027 projected to be the peak year for deficit increase. Post-2028, the expansion rate is expected to slow down as spending cuts are implemented [1][5][9]. - Without considering tariff impacts, the U.S. deficit rate may remain above 6% for the next 30 years, potentially exceeding 10% by 2055 [1][5]. - Tax reduction policies have varying impacts across income groups, benefiting high-income individuals the most while low-income groups see minimal benefits. For the lowest 20% income bracket, the negative effects of tariffs may outweigh the positive effects of tax cuts, leading to an overall negative outcome [1][6]. - Historical data indicates that tax cuts typically boost the stock market and significantly enhance corporate profitability. For instance, after the tax cuts implemented in 2018, most sectors experienced positive profit growth, particularly in energy, finance, and industrial sectors [1][7]. - There are notable differences between the Senate and House versions of the "Beautiful Act." The Senate proposes a $5.8 trillion increase in the deficit budget, including $3.8 trillion for the extension of the TCJA, while the House version suggests a $2.8 trillion increase. The Senate's proposed spending cuts are significantly lower than those in the House version [1][8]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The timeline of the Trump fiscal plan shows an initial increase in deficit and spending during his term (2025-2028) to stimulate the economy, with a significant reduction in deficit expected after the 2029 transition to a new president [1][9]. - The U.S. fiscal expansion policy is influenced by various rules, such as the Paygo principle and the Byrd rule, which require new legislation not to increase the deficit over ten years. However, past presidents have often favored expanding fiscal spending to boost the economy, suggesting a continued trend of deficit increase in the future [1][10]. - Trump's tariff policy plays a crucial role in the advancement of the tax reduction plan. Tariff revenues are a significant supplement to U.S. fiscal income, and any inability to collect these tariffs could increase fiscal pressure. Despite challenges, Trump may still implement tariffs through other means, ensuring that the tax reduction plan's outcome remains largely unaffected [1][11]. - The likelihood of the tax reduction plan passing is bolstered by the reconciliation process, requiring only 51 Republican votes in the House for approval. Current dynamics suggest that as long as opposition votes are limited, the plan can proceed [1][12]. - Balancing future tax reductions with increased deficits will require navigating existing regulations while addressing practical operational needs. The trend indicates a continued push towards fiscal expansion, with potential adjustments in tariff policies to maintain economic stability [1][13].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the "Beautiful Act" proposed by the Trump administration, which focuses on tax reforms and budget modifications in the United States. Core Points and Arguments - The "Beautiful Act" aims to extend and upgrade existing tax reduction policies, including personal income tax rate reductions, standard deduction settings, and estate tax exemptions, with an expected fiscal expansion of approximately $4 trillion for residents. However, the permanent nature of the personal income tax rate could lead to a cumulative deficit of about $10.2 trillion over the next decade [1][2][3]. - The corporate tax rate remains unchanged at 21%, with only minor adjustments in areas such as capital investment expensing, depreciation calculations, and profit shifting to avoid excessive fiscal pressure [1][2]. - To ensure government funding, the "Beautiful Act" requires an increase of approximately $4 trillion in the debt ceiling, alongside spending cuts in areas like Medicaid, Affordable Care Act subsidies, food stamps, and student loans [1][3]. - The Senate review process for the "Beautiful Act" may involve modifications, as the Senate can amend provisions that violate budget rules. The final version must be agreed upon by both the House and Senate and signed by the President to take effect [4]. Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - There are internal divisions within the Republican Party regarding the "Beautiful Act," with some senators opposing the scale of the debt ceiling increase or the adequacy of spending cuts. The critical deadlines include a hard constraint period from late July to early August, with September 30 being the final deadline for budget resolution [5][6]. - If the "Beautiful Act" fails to pass on time, it could lead to a sovereign debt default for the U.S. government, increasing fiscal policy uncertainty and negatively impacting the economy, including decreased consumer confidence and worsened corporate profit expectations [2][7]. - The act includes new tax benefits for residents, such as deductions for tip income and overtime pay, and the establishment of Magma accounts for U.S.-born children to support education, entrepreneurship, or home purchases [3].

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, argues that while the immediate risk of a U.S. debt crisis is low, the long-term risk is significantly high, warning that the U.S. government debt situation is approaching a "death spiral" that could threaten the stability of the global economy [1][2]. Group 1: Debt Situation - The U.S. government is on an unsustainable path regarding its debt, with the debt-to-GDP ratio projected to rise from 104% in 2017 to 123% by 2024 [4]. - Dalio emphasizes that higher deficits will necessitate the Treasury to issue more bonds, which could lead to a classic "debt death spiral" where rising interest rates worsen credit risk, reducing demand for debt and further increasing rates [2][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The bond market has become increasingly volatile, with the 30-year Treasury yield reaching its highest level in 2023, driven by investor concerns over rising risks associated with U.S. government loans [1][5]. - Barclays analysts note that long-term bond yields are nearing their highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis, indicating that the market is adjusting to the implications of new tax legislation and rising deficits [5]. Group 3: Political Landscape - Dalio criticizes both Democratic and Republican parties for their inability to cooperate on addressing the debt issue, likening the situation to a ship heading towards rocks without a consensus on how to change course [5].

Group 1: USD Outlook - The USD index has shown a downward trend since the beginning of the year, primarily influenced by tariff policies, with a peak at 109 in early 2025 and a drop below 100 in April[1][7]. - Short-term fluctuations in the USD index are expected, with limited downward space before potential Fed rate cuts, while medium to long-term pressures include ongoing US debt issues, recession risks, and de-dollarization narratives[1][7]. - Key factors suppressing the USD include the continuous evolution of US debt issues, recession risks compounded by high interest rates, and the narrative of de-dollarization[1][7]. Group 2: HK Stock Market Strategy - Following a joint statement from China and the US on May 12, the Hang Seng Index rose nearly 3%, but the upward trend did not sustain, leading to a "wait and see" market attitude[2][10]. - Southbound capital inflows continue but at a slower pace, with over HKD 16.5 billion net inflow into the banking sector, while the technology sector faced a net outflow exceeding HKD 20.5 billion[2][10]. - The current valuation of the Hang Seng Index is slightly below pre-tariff levels, indicating a gradual recovery in market sentiment[2][10]. Group 3: US Economic Outlook - The outlook for the US economy remains unclear due to fluctuating tariff policies and their impact on inflation, with a potential rise in overall inflation post-tariff implementation[3][14]. - The US federal budget deficit for the first half of 2025 has exceeded USD 1.3 trillion, marking the second-highest deficit for a half-year period in history[3][14]. - The combination of rising interest rates and upcoming debt ceiling negotiations presents significant challenges for US fiscal policy in the latter half of 2025[3][14]. Group 4: US Stock Market Outlook - Major US indices have recovered from significant declines, reflecting investor confidence in the US economic fundamentals and policy adjustments[4][17]. - The anticipated tax cuts from the "Beautiful America Act" are expected to create structural opportunities in the US stock market, particularly benefiting traditional energy and local automotive sectors[4][17]. - Despite the challenges posed by fluctuating tariff policies, the US stock market is projected to exhibit a volatile upward trend in the second half of 2025[4][17]. Group 5: US Treasury Yield Trends - US long-term treasury yields have risen above 5%, with the 20-year and 30-year yields maintaining levels above 5.0% since late May[5][21]. - The increase in yields is attributed to the downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's and concerns over the debt ceiling, which may lead to increased treasury supply and liquidity withdrawal[5][21]. - The expectation of delayed Fed rate cuts due to inflation concerns is likely to keep treasury yields elevated for an extended period[5][21].