19 May 2025 | 8:51AM EDT US Economics Analyst A Slightly Larger Tax Cut Still Won't Offset the Drag From Tariffs (Phillips) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Inv ...

Group 1 - The core issue driving the recent downgrade of the US credit rating is the ongoing fiscal imbalance in the country [1][10] - The 30-year US Treasury yield has surpassed 5%, indicating rising concerns in the market [2][10] - Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating has raised questions about the sustainability of US debt, with foreign investors showing reduced demand for US Treasuries [2][9] Group 2 - As of March, foreign investors held a total of $9.05 trillion in US Treasuries, with Japan as the largest holder at $1.13 trillion, while China's holdings decreased by $18.9 billion to $765 billion [6][7] - The recent TIC data shows a significant increase in foreign holdings of US Treasuries, up over $233 billion from February, but China's position has slipped to third place [6][7] - The market has experienced a notable sell-off in US Treasuries, particularly influenced by concerns over the Trump administration's tariff policies and their impact on fiscal sustainability [9][12] Group 3 - The proposed tax reform plan by the Trump administration has faced significant hurdles, with a recent vote in the House Budget Committee resulting in a defeat, highlighting internal party divisions [11][12] - The potential delay in the tax reform process raises concerns about the future trajectory of US fiscal policy and its implications for the economy [12][13] - Analysts suggest that the focus may shift from tariffs to the progress of tax reform, which could further influence investor sentiment towards US Treasuries [13]

Group 1: Market Quotes - Shanghai gold futures (Au) dropped 0.38% to 749.00 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver futures (Ag) dropped 0.15% to 8093.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 1.54% to 3235.90 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.67% to 32.57 US dollars/ounce; the US 10-year Treasury yield was reported at 4.43%, and the US dollar index was reported at 100.76 [1] - The closing price of Au(T+D) was 746.98 yuan/gram, up 1.58% from the previous trading day; the closing price of Ag(T+D) was 8062.00 yuan/kilogram, up 1.19% from the previous trading day. The closing price of London gold was 3182.95 US dollars/ounce, down 0.25% from the previous trading day; the closing price of London silver was 32.14 US dollars/ounce, up 0.16% from the previous trading day [4] Group 2: Market Outlook - The Trump administration's tax - cut policy brings concerns about US residents' medical insurance. The tax - cut bill will reduce taxes by 4 trillion US dollars in the next ten years, cut 1.5 trillion US dollars in spending, and raise the debt ceiling by 4 trillion US dollars. The reduction in medical insurance subsidies will have a negative impact on consumer spending and overall economic growth [1] - Powell indicated that the Fed's monetary policy framework will change, but the current monetary policy expectations are still very hawkish. After Powell's speech, precious metal prices rose briefly, but the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts this year has decreased, which is a negative factor for gold and silver prices [2] Group 3: Strategy Summary - The US economy faces potential recession risks, and the Fed's monetary policy stance is still hawkish. Precious metals are suppressed in the short - term by the reduced expectation of Fed rate cuts [3] - Gold prices are expected to remain weak. The support level of 740 yuan/gram for the main Shanghai gold futures contract is not stable. It is recommended to wait and see, and then focus on the integer support at 700 yuan/gram. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold futures contract is 719 - 774 yuan/gram [3] - Silver prices are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai silver futures contract is 7804 - 8286 yuan/kilogram [3] Group 4: Data Summary - For gold, the closing price of COMEX gold (active contract) was 3205.30 US dollars/ounce, down 1.19% from the previous trading day; the trading volume was 24.04 million lots, down 4.17%; the position was 44.08 million lots, down 2.56% [7] - For silver, the closing price of COMEX silver (active contract) was 32.43 US dollars/ounce, down 1.10% from the previous trading day; the position (CFTC latest reporting period: weekly) was 13.83 million lots, down 1.43%; the inventory was 15619 tons, up 0.08% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The internal divisions within the Republican Party have led to the unexpected defeat of a major tax and spending proposal, raising concerns about the timeline for anticipated tax cuts and creating uncertainty in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Internal Divisions - The House Budget Committee voted 21 to 16 against the Republican tax and spending proposal, highlighting significant divisions within the party [2]. - Four hardline Republican representatives joined Democrats in opposing the proposal, indicating a fracture in party unity [2]. - The hardliners demand further cuts to Medicaid and the repeal of green energy tax credits, which complicates the legislative process [2][4]. Group 2: Legislative Implications - The defeat of the proposal is seen as a rare occurrence, as typically such committee votes are procedural steps before a full House vote [2]. - The anticipated legislation, originally expected to be completed by July 4, may now face delays due to these internal conflicts [1][2]. - The Republican leadership is seeking compromises between moderate and hardline factions to move forward with tax reforms [6]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The proposed tax cuts could potentially increase the national debt, which currently stands at $36.2 trillion, by several trillion dollars over the next decade [5]. - The nonpartisan Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that the tax cuts would reduce federal revenue by $3.72 trillion over ten years [5]. - Critics argue that the proposal disproportionately benefits the wealthy while threatening healthcare coverage for millions of Americans [5].

Group 1 - The Trump administration's fluctuating tariff policies have significantly undermined investor confidence in the U.S. government and dollar assets, raising concerns about a potential recession in the U.S. economy [1] - The U.S. Treasury bond market experienced a massive sell-off, leading to a collapse in bond prices and a rapid increase in the yield of the 10-year Treasury bond, which surpassed 4.5% [1] - The proposed tax bill by the House Republicans is expected to cut up to $4.9 trillion in taxes over the next decade, resulting in a projected deficit of $3.7 trillion for the U.S. Treasury [1] Group 2 - Recent trade agreements between the U.S. and China, as well as with the U.K., have somewhat alleviated the current global trade tensions, attracting investors back to U.S. equities and putting pressure on the Treasury bond market [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has emphasized a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, with Goldman Sachs pushing back its forecast for the next rate cut from July to December [2] - Powell's stance on interest rates has contributed to the upward pressure on Treasury yields, further impacting bond prices negatively [2]

日度报告——综合晨报 中国 4 月金融数据多数不及预期 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-15 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美联储副主席：预计经济增长将放缓，通胀或反弹但待观察 美联储官员表态经济稳健，因此不急于降息，美联储官员对于 经济短期看法明显乐观，美元维持震荡。 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 韩国与美国就外汇政策展开对话 美国与中东国家的协议继续支撑科技板块上涨，股指表现分化， 纳指明显强于标普 500 和道琼斯指数。 综 宏观策略（国债期货） 合 4 月金融数据多数不及预期 晨 报 虽然财政正在积极发力，但私人部门仍然缺乏主动投融资意愿。 基本面对债市的影响依然是偏多的。 黑色金属（动力煤） 5 月 14 日北港市场动力煤价格弱势运行 伴随港口集中疏港，煤价下行压力一次性释放。后期来看，根 据天气预估，此轮夏季或再次呈现高温，火电增速有望在夏季 转至同比正增长。需求季节性回转将接替港口降库完成，煤 农产品（豆粕） 美国建议延长生物燃料税收抵免 美国众议院提议延长生物燃料税收抵免至 2031 年底，ANEC 将 巴西 5 月出口预估上调至 1426 万吨。昨日国内豆粕现货稳中有 跌 ...

Core Points - The Republican-controlled House of Representatives is reviewing an extension of the large tax cut law enacted during Donald Trump's first term, amidst concerns over the national debt exceeding $36 trillion [1] - The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, effective since the end of 2017, is set to expire at the end of this year, with Trump promising to extend it and introduce additional measures [1] - Key Republican figures are working to finalize the new tax bill's content, with a preliminary vote scheduled for May 13 [1] Group 1 - The new tax bill is divided into 11 chapters, with significant contention surrounding tax policy, healthcare assistance programs, green energy projects, and food stamp aid [1] - Proposed cuts include reductions in federal spending for low-income healthcare assistance and nutrition programs, as well as the elimination of environmental tax credits, leading to internal disagreements among Republicans [1] Group 2 - Trump initially pushed for an increase in tax rates for the wealthiest individuals but later appeared to retract this position, suggesting that Republicans "may not need" to raise taxes on the wealthy [2] - The Republican leadership aims to finalize the bill text by the weekend, with hopes to pass it in the House before the Memorial Day holiday on May 26 [2] - The House Budget Committee Chairman emphasized the challenge of cutting spending, stating that without a $2 trillion reduction in federal spending over the next decade, the sustainability of the tax cuts may be at risk [2]

个人所得税也是减税重点。一方面，对在职的一线工人、服务人员等取消加班与小费收入的征税， 允许汽车贷款利息部分抵税；另一方面，对中老年群体取消社会保障福利的缴税，年收入超过2.5万美 元的老年人在领取社会保障福利时不再缴纳50%—85%的所得税，如果再加上本已存在的各种抵税与免 税项目，美国个人所得税降幅显著。 据美国税收基金会测算，新一轮减税可使2026年纳税人的税后收入平均增长2.9%，长期增长约 3.0%，由此有助于促进私人与家庭消费，企业投资积极性提升，美国GDP可长期增长约1.1%，公共财 政收入将获得明显改善。 但减税是否能够带来真实的经济增长存疑。一方面，相比首任任期，本次减税力度有所减弱，边际 效应可能递减；另一方面，新政策主要面向普通工薪阶层，庞大中产阶层受益有限，难以刺激消费增 量。 美国总统特朗普在首任任期内创下3.13万亿美元的美国史上最大财政赤字后，承诺在新任期内大幅 削减赤字。美国财政部长贝森特提出"3-3-3"计划：到2028年将财政赤字降至3%，实现3%的GDP增长和 每日300万桶石油产量。但现实情况显示这一目标恐难实现。最新数据显示，继上财年1.83万亿美元赤 字后，2025 ...

特朗普曾因担心富人的离开和政治对手的攻击而反对上调个人所得税最高税率。 但共和党内部对是否上调"超级富豪税"有不同意见。例如，特朗普第一任期的白宫助理班农（Steve Bannon）以提高共和党减税措施的立法可行性为由一 直力推提高个人所得税税率。 分析人士称，上调"超级富豪税" 的税率有助于共和党避免大幅削减医疗补助和降低其他税种，并对共和党摆脱民主党对其削减社会保障体系以支持富人 减税的指控起到积极作用。 但约翰逊、金里奇和多位共和党高层以及商业团体持反对意见。 据报道，美国总统特朗普正在考虑调整"超级富豪税"，将年收入超过250万美元的个人所得税最高税率从37%上调至39.6%。 消息人士称，特朗普于当地时间5月7日在电话中私下敦促众议院议长约翰逊 （Mike Johnson）提高上述税率并关闭华尔街投资者的附带权益漏洞。 据报道，美国共和党正秘密酝酿新的减税法案，新政策预计将于未来几天公布，共和党希望5月末能在众议院获得通过。但出于担心富人的离开和政治对 手的攻击，特朗普于上个月将其否决，称此举"非常具有破坏性"。 "这会造成很大的混乱，因为很多百万富翁会离开这个国家。"特朗普在接受采访时表示："如果 ...

登记编号：S0890521120001 分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 分析师：刘 芳 登记编号：S0890524100002 分析师： 蔡梦苑 | | 关税缓和信号显现,但行业关税仍存变数: | | --- | --- | | | > 美国一季度GDP萎缩，后续走势取决于关税谈判及减税政策进展 | | | ◆ 今年第一季度美国实际国内生产总值(GDP)按年率计算奏缩至-0.3%,主要受到抢进口和政府投资减少的抱累。后续美国经济走势 | | | 取决于关税谈判的进展(商品消费),以及减税政策的支持(私人投资)。 | | 海外宏观 | > 对等关税税率后续有望下调，行业关税仍存变数 | | | ◆ 基于财政收益最大化及后续行业关税实施空间的考量,对等关税存在下调预期。预计最终调整方向或与特朗普竞选大致医配一 | | | 即全球基准税率降至10%,中国维持约60%高位。 | | | ◆ 对华关税政策方面,特朗普表示"对中国达成协议的前景泵现得更加乐观"。然而潜在的行业关税(特别是医药、关键矿产及半 | | | 导体等敏感行业)关税仍存变致,伴随着协议谈判进程,市场波动或将延续。政策不确定性 ...