Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia indicates that the path for rate cuts may be limited due to high levels of capacity utilization and persistently high inflation expected to continue into the next year [1] Economic Indicators - Elevated levels of capacity utilization in the economy are noted, suggesting that the economy is operating near its potential [1] - The outlook includes inflation rates that are described as uncomfortably high, which is expected to last well into the next year [1]

新华财经北京11月7日电美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊（Philip Jefferson）表示，鉴于潜在的联邦政府停摆 风险可能影响关键经济数据的发布，其未来在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上的投票意向将采 取"逐次会议决定"的方式。 杰斐逊特别提及政府停摆对货币政策决策构成的潜在干扰。若财政僵局导致劳工统计局、商务部等机构 暂停运作，将造成就业、消费及生产等关键数据缺失，进而削弱美联储基于数据驱动的决策基础。在此 背景下，其"逐会评估"的立场凸显了政策制定者对信息完整性的高度依赖。 杰斐逊指出，过去几个月整体经济表现相对平稳，"变化不大"，基本通胀指标已显现朝向美联储2%长 期目标迈进。但他强调，近期通胀缺乏进一步实质性进展，部分原因可能与关税政策有关。 （文章来源：新华财经） 在利率政策方面，杰斐逊表示，当前政策利率水平"更接近中性"，因此主张以谨慎和渐进的方式推进后 续调整。他确认自己支持了10月FOMC会议作出的降息决定，并重申在政策路径上保持灵活性的重要 性。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a strong upward trend on November 6, 2025, with the technology sector leading the way. The market is expected to experience some short - term fluctuations but has limited downside risks. For the bond market, there are opportunities for appropriate long - positions and positive arbitrage strategies. In the precious metals market, there is a long - term bullish outlook, but short - term oscillations are expected. Different commodities in the futures market have their own supply - demand situations and price trends, with corresponding trading suggestions provided for each [3][5][7][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On November 6, the A - share market rose across the board, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.97% at 4007.76 points. The four major stock index futures contracts also closed higher, and the basis discounts of the main contracts were repaired. The semiconductor industry chain rebounded strongly, while the consumer industry corrected [3][4] - **News**: Domestically, the Ministry of Commerce held talks with the US agricultural trade delegation. Overseas, the US Supreme Court debated the legality of Trump's large - scale tariff collection [4] - **Funding**: The trading volume of the A - share market increased by over 300 billion yuan, with a total turnover of 2.06 trillion yuan. The central bank conducted 92.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 249.8 billion yuan [5] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to mainly observe as the market may experience a slight callback after reaching a high and is waiting to stabilize [5] Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most treasury bond futures contracts closed lower, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds generally rose [6] - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 92.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 249.8 billion yuan. However, the inter - bank liquidity remained loose [6][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to take appropriate long - positions in the unilateral strategy and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in the spot - futures strategy [7] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: US labor market contraction signals emerged in October, and the UK central bank paused interest rate cuts. Precious metals prices first rose and then fell. The international gold price closed at $3975.88 per ounce, down 0.07%, and the international silver price closed at $47.983 per ounce, up 0.02% [8][9][10] - **Outlook**: In the long - term, precious metals may enter a bull market, but in the short - term, the international gold price is expected to oscillate between $3900 - $4030, and the silver price between $47 - $49 [10] - **Funding**: ETF funds have flowed out due to the recent price fluctuations, and investors' attitudes are cautious [12] Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotation**: As of November 4, the freight quotes for Shanghai - Europe routes from different shipping companies showed certain ranges [13] - **Container Shipping Index**: As of November 3, the SCFIS European line index decreased by 7.92% month - on - month, while the US - West route index increased by 14.43% [13] - **Fundamentals**: As of November 4, the global container shipping capacity increased by 7.34% year - on - year, and the demand in different regions showed different characteristics as reflected by PMI data [14] - **Logic**: The futures market declined, and the main contract is expected to oscillate between 1800 - 2000 points [14] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to buy the December contract at low prices in the short - term [14] Financial Derivatives - Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of November 6, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper increased, and downstream demand showed a short - term recovery [14] - **Macro**: The US market liquidity tightened, the manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, and the Trump tariff case was being heard, which may affect copper prices [15] - **Supply**: The copper concentrate spot TC remained low. The electrolytic copper production in October decreased slightly, and it is expected to decline slightly in November [16] - **Demand**: The weekly operating rate of copper rod processing increased, and downstream demand showed strong resilience [16][17] - **Inventory**: LME, domestic social, and COMEX copper inventories all increased [17] - **Logic**: The copper price is expected to show an upward trend in the long - term due to supply - demand contradictions, but short - term price increases may suppress demand [18] - **Operation Suggestion**: Pay attention to the support at 84000 and the resistance at 86500 [18] - **Short - term View**: Oscillation [18] Alumina - **Spot**: On November 6, the spot prices of alumina in different regions showed different trends, with a shrinking north - south price difference [18] - **Supply**: In October, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina increased, and the operating rate decreased slightly. In November, the supply is expected to remain in surplus, but the situation may improve [19] - **Inventory**: Alumina inventories in ports, plants, and warehouses all increased [19] - **Logic**: The alumina price is expected to remain weakly oscillating, with the main contract ranging from 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton [20] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton [20] - **View**: Weakly oscillating [20] Aluminum - **Spot**: On November 6, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum increased, and the spot premium decreased [22] - **Supply**: In October, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased, and it is expected to decline slightly in November due to environmental protection restrictions [22] - **Demand**: Downstream processing industries entered the peak season, but the weekly operating rate declined [22] - **Inventory**: Domestic mainstream consumer area inventories increased slightly, while LME inventories decreased [23] - **Logic**: The price increase of the main contract was driven by overseas news, but the fundamentals are not optimistic. The price is expected to fluctuate between 20500 - 21500 yuan/ton [24] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 20800 - 21600 yuan/ton [25] - **View**: Wide - range oscillation [25] Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On November 6, the average price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged [25] - **Supply**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the supply of raw materials remained tight [25] - **Demand**: The demand showed a mild recovery, but the order volume did not increase significantly [26] - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased slightly, and the absolute inventory remained high [26] - **Logic**: The ADC12 price is expected to remain strongly oscillating, with the main contract ranging from 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton [27] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. Consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on AD01 and short on AL01 when the spread is above 550 [28] - **View**: Wide - range oscillation [28] Zinc - **Spot**: On November 6, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots remained stable, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [28] - **Supply**: The zinc concentrate processing fees decreased, and the zinc production from January to October increased. The subsequent supply increase may be limited [29] - **Demand**: The operating rates of primary processing industries were relatively stable, and the overall demand did not exceed expectations [30] - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventories decreased, while LME inventories were basically stable [30] - **Logic**: The zinc price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term but may remain range - bound. Upward or downward breakthroughs depend on demand improvement or inventory changes [31] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 22300 - 23000 yuan/ton [31] - **Short - term View**: Oscillation [31] Tin - **Spot**: On November 6, the price of SMM 1 tin increased, and the market trading was mainly for rigid demand [31] - **Supply**: In September, the domestic tin ore and tin ingot imports showed different trends. The supply from Myanmar improved slightly, but the overall supply remained tight [32] - **Demand and Inventory**: In September, the solder operating rate increased, but the traditional consumer electronics and other fields had weak demand. The LME inventory increased, while the domestic inventory decreased [33] - **Logic**: The market sentiment improved, and the fundamentals were strong. It is recommended to hold long positions at low prices and buy on dips [34] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions at low prices and buy on dips [34] - **Near - term View**: Wide - range oscillation [34] Nickel - **Spot**: As of November 6, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased [34] - **Supply**: In October, the domestic refined nickel production decreased, but the overall production remained at a high level [35] - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys was relatively stable, the demand for stainless steel was weak, and the demand for nickel sulfate was supported in the short - term but faced challenges in the medium - term [35] - **Inventory**: Overseas inventories remained high, while domestic social inventories decreased slightly, and bonded area inventories declined [35] - **Logic**: The macro - environment was weak, but the cost was supported. The price is expected to oscillate between 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton [36] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton [37] - **Short - term View**: Range - bound oscillation [37] Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of November 6, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan remained stable [38] - **Raw Materials**: The nickel ore price was firm, the nickel iron price decreased, and the chromium iron market was weak [38] - **Supply**: In September and October, the domestic stainless steel production increased. The supply pressure remained [39] - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipt quantity declined [39] - **Logic**: The macro - driving force weakened, and the fundamentals were under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate weakly between 12500 - 13000 yuan/ton [40] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 12500 - 13000 yuan/ton [41] - **Short - term View**: Weakly oscillating [41] Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of November 6, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading was mainly for rigid demand [41] - **Supply**: In October, the lithium carbonate production increased, and last week's production also showed a slight increase [42] - **Demand**: The demand was optimistic, and the production schedules of iron - lithium and ternary materials were expected to increase [42] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased last week [43] - **Logic**: The price was supported by strong fundamentals in the short - term. However, the trading logic has switched, and the price is expected to oscillate between 78000 - 82000 yuan/ton [45] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 78000 - 82000 yuan/ton [46] - **Short - term View**: Oscillation adjustment [46] Financial Derivatives - Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price was stable, the basis of rebar weakened, and the basis of hot - rolled coil was slightly stronger [46] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of iron elements had weak support, while the cost of carbon elements had support. The profit order was billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [46] - **Supply**: From January to September, the iron element production increased. In October and November, the molten iron production decreased, and the five major steel products' production also declined [46] - **Demand**: Domestic demand was weak, exports were high, and the apparent demand decreased [47] - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products decreased, the rebar inventory decreased, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased [47] - **View**: The steel market was slightly stronger, and it is recommended to continue holding the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coil [48][49] Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of November 6, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders increased slightly [50] - **Futures**: The iron ore futures prices increased slightly, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened [50] - **Basis**: The basis of different iron ore products was provided [50] - **Demand**: As of November 6, the daily molten iron production decreased, and the demand for iron ore weakened [50] - **Supply**: Last week, the global iron ore shipment decreased, but the port arrivals increased significantly [51] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased, the daily port clearing volume increased slightly, and the steel mill's imported iron ore inventory increased [51] - **View**: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to short at high prices and use the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [51] Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: As of November 6, the coking coal futures rebounded, the Shanxi coal - coke price was strong, and the Mongolian coal price was high [52] - **Supply**: The production capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines decreased slightly, and the production and inventory showed different trends [52][53] - **Demand**: The production of coke by independent coking plants and steel mills decreased, and the demand for coking coal weakened [54] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coking coal increased slightly [55] - **View**: The coking coal price is expected to rise in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices and use the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [56] Coke - **Futures and Spot**: As of November 6, the coke futures rebounded. The third - round price increase of coke was implemented, and there is still an expectation of a further increase [57][61] - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was negative [58] - **Supply**: The daily production of coke decreased, and the cost was supported by the rising coking coal price [59][61] - **Demand**: The iron water production decreased, and the steel price was weak, which suppressed the coke price increase [60][61] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coke decreased slightly, and the supply - demand was tight [61] - **View**: The coke price is expected to rise in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low prices and use the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [62] Financial Derivatives - Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: On November 6, the domestic soybean meal price was stable or decreased, and the rapeseed meal price increased. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased [63] - **Fundamentals**: China adjusted the tariff on US imports, and there were various news about the soybean production and trade in the US, Brazil, and Argentina [63][64] - **Market Outlook**: The US soybean price fell sharply. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories were high, but the cost support was strong, and the soybean meal price was expected to be supported [64][65] Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of live pigs oscillated, and the national average price increased slightly [66] - **Market Data**: The inventory of breeding sows decreased in October, and the profit of live pig farming decreased [66][67] - **Market Outlook**: The live pig price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to continue holding the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy and be cautiously bullish on the unilateral position [67] Corn - **Spot Price**: On November 6, the corn price in Northeast China and North China was relatively stable, and the port price was slightly weak [68] - **Fundamentals**: The corn inventory in northern ports and Guangdong ports showed different trends, and the inventory of feed and deep - processing enterprises also changed [68][69] - **Market Outlook**: The corn

Core Insights - Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee expressed hesitation about further interest rate cuts due to a government shutdown causing a blackout on key inflation data [1][2] - Goolsbee highlighted concerns over the lack of important price reports, especially as general inflation has been trending higher recently [1][5] Inflation Data Concerns - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not release the consumer price index report for October, which was scheduled for next week, raising concerns about the availability of inflation data [3] - The September report indicated an inflation rate of 3% annually, above the Fed's target of 2%, while core inflation (excluding food and energy) was running at a 3.6% annualized pace prior to the shutdown [4][5] Labor Market Indicators - The Chicago Fed updated its dashboard of labor market indicators, showing a stable unemployment rate of 4.36% in October, which is a slight increase from September [2] - The data indicated a steady pace of hirings and layoffs, suggesting stability in the job market despite inflation concerns [2] Future Rate Decisions - Goolsbee will participate in the Federal Open Market Committee's decision-making in December regarding potential rate cuts, following reductions in the previous two meetings [5] - He emphasized a cautious approach to rate cuts, suggesting that the settling point for rates will likely be below current levels [5]

Core Insights - The Chicago Fed labor market indicator has been introduced to provide alternative insights into the labor market amidst the absence of government data, indicating stability in the job market despite some concerns about payroll job creation [1][5][6] Labor Market Indicators - The unemployment rate is estimated to remain unchanged at 4.36% in October, with a 40% probability of being higher and a 20% probability of being lower [2] - The labor market indicators suggest stability, with low hiring and low firing rates, which is atypical for the beginning of recessions [9][10][18] - Total payroll job creation has shown substantial deterioration, raising questions about its reliability as a business cycle indicator [6][7] Economic Environment - There is ongoing uncertainty regarding tariffs and their impact on businesses, contributing to a cautious outlook on the job market [11][14] - Despite strong GDP numbers and consumer spending, there are concerns about potential job market weakening, particularly for new graduates facing hiring challenges [15][17] Inflation and Rate Cuts - The lack of private sector information on inflation during the government shutdown raises concerns about potential inflation issues developing unnoticed [13] - The current environment of low hiring and low firing may complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding rate cuts [12][13]

Group 1 - The Bank of England decided to maintain the key interest rate at 4% with a narrow vote ahead of the autumn budget announcement, reflecting a cautious approach [1] - Five members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep the rate unchanged, while four members favored a 25 basis points cut, indicating a divided opinion among policymakers [1] - The consensus suggests that the Bank of England may consider rate cuts as early as December, responding to expected inflation cooling and a weakening labor market [1][2] Group 2 - The UK inflation rate remained steady at 3.8% for the third consecutive month, which the Bank of England believes may have peaked, indicating a potential anti-inflation trend [1] - The Oxford Economics analysis highlighted that most Monetary Policy Committee members are more concerned about the risks of cutting rates too quickly rather than too slowly [2] - In the European market, bond yields showed mixed movements, with German and Italian bond yields generally rising, while UK bond yields fell following the Bank of England's announcement [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends and developments in the investment banking sector, highlighting the impact of recent economic changes on market dynamics and investment opportunities [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Investment banking is experiencing a shift due to rising interest rates, which are affecting deal-making activities and valuations [1] - There is an increasing focus on sustainable finance, with more banks integrating ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) factors into their investment strategies [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Major investment banks reported mixed earnings in the last quarter, with some showing resilience while others faced challenges due to market volatility [1] - The demand for advisory services in mergers and acquisitions remains strong, despite a slowdown in initial public offerings (IPOs) [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the investment banking sector will continue to adapt to changing economic conditions, with a potential rebound in IPO activity as market conditions stabilize [1] - There is an expectation for increased competition among banks to capture market share in the growing sustainable finance space [1]

8月美国总统特朗普突然抛出消息，说要把美联储理事莉萨·库克赶下台，说她搞了房贷作弊。这一下子 把原本就不安分的美联储又推到风口浪尖。可总统能轻轻松松解雇一名理事？没那么简单。 库克其实是拜登任命的独立理事，本来可以干到2038年，而特朗普这么做，大家都明白他心里盘算着什 么。 他希望美联储放松利率，政策上能听他的，这样他的人将来在里面说话有分量，利率怎么调也由他把 控。 文案|编辑：凤梨 库克的一举一动成了市场和媒体眼里的风向标。她要是真被换下去，后果不只是职位问题，更关系到美 联储还能不能和政治分开，关系着美国老百姓兜里的钱会不会因为政治而被折腾。 处在风暴中心的库克并没有对外讲自己被"解雇"这事，而是直接聊起美国的经济现状。她提到美国的就 业市场已经开始吃紧了，很多黑人失业率又涨了，她盯着这些数据不放。 但说到通胀，她又非常坚定地表示，现在利率够用了，再乱调反而打乱局面。她这一番话不是一头倒向 哪一边，是在给美联储里分歧越来越大的两拨人打个"平手"。 有些人急着降息，觉得物价上涨是短期现象，不降息就怕就业糟糕到底；而另一些人铁了心要抗住，坚 持生活成本高得让人喘不过气，绝不能轻易放水。 库克没就这样认了， ...

技术层面上，美元兑加元在1.4050上方维持强势结构，短期均线呈多头排列，14日相对强弱指数 （RSI）位于50上方，显示多头动能仍在。若汇价突破1.14102阻力位，有望进一步上探1.4150及1.4200 关口；反之，若跌破1.4000支撑，则可能测试1.3960及1.3920区域。 摩根士丹利外汇策略主管表示："当前汇率走势充分反映了市场对利差的重新定价。只要美联储保持谨 慎态度，而加拿大继续宽松，美元兑加元仍有进一步上行空间。" 行长蒂夫·麦克勒姆表示，降息旨在帮助加拿大经济应对来自美国关税的不确定性，同时保持通胀接近 2%的目标。他补充称，若经济前景出现重大变化，央行将准备采取进一步行动。目前市场普遍认为， 尽管年内降息周期或暂告一段落，但在2026年仍有进一步宽松的可能。 美元兑加元技术分析 周三（11月5日)美元兑加元亚洲时段延续升势至1.4115，因投资者下调对美联储12月降息的预期，同时 国际油价疲软打压加元。美联储主席鲍威尔上周发表鹰派言论，强调降息尚未确定，推动美元走强。另 一方面，加拿大央行连续降息且油价承压，令加元表现低迷。 上周，美联储宣布将基准利率下调25个基点至3.75%-4. ...

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) against the US dollar (USD) is experiencing a downward trend, currently trading at 0.6510, with a decline of approximately 0.31% over five consecutive trading days [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to maintain the official cash rate at 3.6% during the November policy meeting, indicating a non-dovish stance despite the decision being in line with market expectations [1] - Recent inflation forecasts suggest that inflation will remain above target levels for several years, with core inflation not expected to return to the 2-3% target range until the end of 2027 [1] Group 2 - The Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the third quarter increased by 1.0% quarter-on-quarter and 3.0% year-on-year, both exceeding market expectations of 0.8% and 2.7% respectively [1] - The August CPI year-on-year jumped to 3.5%, surpassing the previous value of 3.0% and the market expectation of 3.1%, which has reduced market expectations for a rate cut by the RBA [1] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD is in a rectangular consolidation pattern, with recent price action breaking below the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.6535, suggesting weakened short-term price momentum [2] - Key support is identified at the psychological level of 0.6500; a break below this level could lead to a decline towards the lower boundary of the rectangular range at approximately 0.6460, and potentially test the five-month low of 0.6414 [2] - Resistance is noted at the 9-day EMA of 0.6535; a breakout above this level could strengthen bullish momentum, pushing the AUD/USD towards the significant level of 0.6600 and the upper boundary of the rectangular range at around 0.6630 [2]