利率调整

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土耳其央行超预期将基准一周回购利率下调至43%,市场预期降至43.5%
news flash· 2025-07-24 11:05
土耳其央行超预期将基准一周回购利率下调至43%,市场预期降至43.5%。 ...
金十整理:机构前瞻欧洲央行利率决议——7月按兵不动已成共识,降息大门就此关闭还是9月重启?
news flash· 2025-07-24 06:14
4. 法兴银行:欧洲央行料将维持利率不变,下一次降息将在9月;此次 会议 可能成为欧元信贷市场的主 要推动力。 5. 北欧银行:欧洲央行料将维持利率不变,并将在较长一段时间内保持观望,且将强调在当前利率水平 下处于有利地位。 6. 潘森宏观:欧洲央行料将维持利率不变,因欧洲央行无法确定特朗普是否将实施新的关税税率,欧洲 央行将转而关注9月会议。 金十整理:机构前瞻欧洲央行利率决议——7月按兵不动已成共识,降息大门就此关闭还是9月重启? 1. 花旗银行:欧洲央行料将维持利率不变,并将在9月和12月各降息一次,此前预期为7月和9月。 2. 高盛集团:欧洲央行料将维持利率不变,政策声明也仅会做出有限调整,且管委会将重申其基于数据 的政策。 3. 路透调查:欧洲央行料将维持利率不变,84位 经济学家 中有49位预计该行今年9月将下调存款利率至 1.75%。 9. 丹斯克银行:欧洲央行料将维持利率不变,9月将最终降息至1.75%。贸易谈判结果将对未来政策至 关重要,高于10%的关税将偏离欧洲央行的预期。 10. 荷兰合作银行:欧洲央行料将维持利率不变,且其可能实际上已结束降息周期,但该行至少在几个 月内不会承认这一点。 ...
美联储降息救市!7月23日,今日凌晨的四大消息已全面发酵
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-24 05:36
风暴眼:华尔街在政治与市场的撕裂中颤抖 当夜幕降临,纽约联邦储备银行深处的地下会议室灯火通明,一场关于未来利率走向的激烈辩论正在进行。经济学家们神情严肃,围坐在长桌旁,仔细研读 着六月会议纪要——这份文件如同一面棱镜,将美联储内部的深刻分歧暴露无遗。透过窗户,特朗普大厦闪烁的霓虹灯光刺破夜空,映衬着美联储主席杰罗 姆·鲍威尔凝重的侧脸。他的手指悬停在加密手机上方,一条来自理事克里斯托弗·沃勒三小时前的短信静静地躺在那里:"数据显示关税冲击可控。"鲍威尔 斟酌着回复,一句"等月底详谈"在发送框里闪烁,但最终未能发出。 就在这寂静的夜晚,四股强大的力量如同飓风般碰撞,将全球市场卷入一场没有硝烟的战争。 这场战争的源头之一,是来自政治层面的直接施压。凌晨1点27分,在佛罗里达州的海湖庄园,键盘的敲击声划破了宁静。前总统唐纳德·特朗普在他的"真 实社交"平台上发出一声咆哮:"通货膨胀率极低,美联储应该立即降息300个基点!"他精明地计算着政治得失:利率每提高一个百分点,美国每年就要多支 付3600亿美元的利息,降息三个百分点就相当于节省了上万亿美元。这条凌晨发布的"降息令"如同一场野火,迅速蔓延,占据了全球财经媒体的 ...
浮息债全解:利率变局中的攻守之道
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-24 05:02
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The value of floating - rate bonds is affected by factors such as changes in the benchmark interest rate, term spreads, and market expectations of interest rate movements. In a rising interest - rate environment, floating - rate bonds are more resistant to price declines compared to fixed - rate bonds, but they perform relatively weakly in a falling interest - rate environment. - Based on simulations of floating - rate bonds, the market expects the 1 - year LPR to decline steadily in the next two years, reaching a low of 2.8% in April 2027, and then rise to 3.1% by the end of 2027. - Considering the potential for additional interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, the allocation value of floating - rate bonds may be lower than that of fixed - rate bonds. Similarly, the current allocation value of DR007 floating - rate bonds may also be lower than that of fixed - rate bonds [167][177]. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1 China's Floating - Rate Bond Historical Changes - **Issuance Scale**: Over the past 30 years, China's floating - rate bond issuance scale has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with three rounds of expansion and adjustment. The issuance scale reached a historical peak of 637.6 billion yuan in 2021, but has significantly decreased in the past three years [14]. - **Benchmark Interest Rate**: It has evolved from a single benchmark (1 - year fixed - deposit interest rate) to a diversified one. Currently, LPR and DR007 are the mainstream benchmark interest rates [20][27]. - **Bond Types**: Policy - bank bonds and asset - backed securities have alternately dominated the market. Since 2022, policy - bank bonds have once again become the main type of floating - rate bonds [34][41]. - **Issuance Term**: The issuance term has changed from being highly concentrated (7 - 10 years) to gradually diversified and then re - concentrated (2 - 3 years) [46][51]. 3.2 Floating - Rate Bond Valuation Method - **Valuation Principle**: Based on the discounted cash - flow method (DCF), the present value of a floating - rate bond is calculated by discounting future coupon payments and the principal at maturity to the current point in time. However, the difficulty lies in predicting future coupon payments and selecting the discount rate [63][64]. - **Factors Affecting Investment Value**: Changes in the benchmark interest rate and term spreads (∆y) affect the value of floating - rate bonds. Generally, an increase in the benchmark interest rate leads to a decrease in bond value, and vice versa. The impact of term spreads on bond value needs to be analyzed in combination with changes in the benchmark interest rate [77][80]. 3.3 Relative Value of Floating - Rate Bonds - **Comparison with Fixed - Rate Bonds**: In a rising interest - rate environment, the price decline of floating - rate bonds is smaller than that of fixed - rate bonds; in a falling interest - rate environment, floating - rate bonds perform slightly worse than fixed - rate bonds [86][94]. 3.4 Absolute Value of Floating - Rate Bonds (Based on Historical Backtracking) - By observing the historical trends of floating - rate bonds with DR007 as the benchmark, it is found that the value changes of floating - rate bonds are complex and are affected by the fluctuations of the National Development Bank bond rate and DR007. When the two rates move in opposite directions, the direction of the floating - rate bond value change is clear; when they are stable, the value center of the floating - rate bond is stable; when they move in the same direction, the direction of the value change is uncertain [101][134]. 3.5 Future Interest - Rate Cut Path Implied by Current Floating - Rate Bonds - By simulating the cash flows of floating - rate bonds, the market's implied interest - rate cut/ hike path for the 1 - year LPR in the next three years can be predicted. The market expects the 1 - year LPR to decline steadily in the next two years, reach a low of 2.8% in April 2027, and then rise to 3.1% by the end of 2027. The implied interest - rate cut expectations of floating - rate National Development Bank bonds are stronger than those of Agricultural Development Bank bonds [154][162]. 3.6 Investment Value of Floating - Rate Bonds - **1 - year LPR Floating - Rate Bonds**: Considering the potential for additional interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, the allocation value of floating - rate bonds may be lower than that of fixed - rate bonds [167]. - **DR007 Floating - Rate Bonds**: Through scenario analysis, it is found that under most scenarios, the current allocation value of DR007 floating - rate bonds is lower than that of fixed - rate bonds [172][175].
放弃尝试解雇鲍威尔?特朗普剑指美联储董事会谋降息
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-23 23:55
虽然重申不会罢免,美国总统特朗普周三继续向美联储主席鲍威尔施压,要求降低利率,并呼吁美联储 董事会采取行动。 美国财长贝森特则透露,目前不急于确定美联储主席鲍威尔的继任者,候选人可能来自现任联邦公开市 场委员会(FOMC)成员或地区联储主席,同时,鲍威尔也没有决定是否会提前结束美联储理事任期。 放弃尝试解雇鲍威尔? 上周二,一则特朗普对解雇鲍威尔的想法持开放态度的消息一度引发市场动荡。美国总统随后很快否认 了这些报道,尽管他对鲍威尔没有降息提出了新的批评。 根据1913年成立美联储的《联邦储备法》规定,美联储理事会成员由总统任命,经参议院批准,任期为 14年,实行交错任期制。只在"有正当理由"的情况下才能被免职——长期以来人们认为"正当理由"指的 是不当行为,而不是政策分歧。 美联储翻修项目意外成为了潜在的突破口。受项目进度缓慢,及物料、人工价格等因素影响,该项目预 算已达到25亿美元,比最初预算多出约6亿美元。第一财经此前曾报道,7月2日联邦住房金融局局长 (FHFA)普尔特(William Pulte)声称,美联储主席鲍威尔在美联储总部建筑翻修时存在渎职行为, 要求开启调查。特朗普盟友、佛罗里达州的共和党 ...
倒戈?特朗普核心大将公开唱反调,罕见妥协
凤凰网财经· 2025-07-22 22:46
Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results with the S&P 500 reaching a new high, while the Dow Jones increased by 0.4% and the Nasdaq decreased by 0.39% [1] - Major tech stocks had varied performances, with Tesla rising over 1% and Nvidia falling over 2% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.7%, with notable gains in Chinese concept stocks such as NIO increasing over 10% and Baidu rising over 4% [1] Federal Reserve Insights - Jerome Powell emphasized the need for large U.S. banks to maintain capital adequacy and manage risks, allowing them to compete freely with non-bank financial companies [1] - Powell's comments did not include any insights on future monetary policy as the Federal Reserve enters a quiet period ahead of the upcoming meeting [1] Interest Rate Speculations - The swap market indicates that the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week is nearly zero, with traders pricing in a total of 46 basis points of cuts for the remainder of the year [2] - The probability of maintaining the current interest rate in September is 41.4%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 57.2% [2] Political Pressure on the Federal Reserve - Former President Trump has repeatedly attempted to pressure Powell to resign, while Treasury Secretary Mnuchin supports Powell's continued tenure [3] - Trump has expressed that interest rates are too high, suggesting they should be lowered by 3 percentage points or more, attributing housing market issues to Powell's policies [4] - Mnuchin called for a comprehensive internal review of the Federal Reserve's functions, indicating a need for the institution to refocus on its core responsibilities [4]
特朗普宣布对菲律宾收19%关税,菲对美0关税,还透露鲍威尔即将离任;市场监管总局暂停对杜邦中国反垄断调查;近42万名LV客户信息被泄露丨每经早参
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-07-22 21:59
Group 1 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results with the Dow Jones up by 0.4%, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.39% and the S&P 500 increased by 0.06% [3] - Major technology stocks had varied performances, with Tesla rising over 1% and Nvidia dropping more than 2% [3] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 1.7%, with notable gains in popular Chinese stocks such as NIO, Baidu, and Pinduoduo [3] Group 2 - COMEX gold futures increased by 1.1%, closing at $3444 per ounce, while silver futures rose by 0.83% to $39.66 per ounce [4] - WTI crude oil futures fell by 1.47%, settling at $66.21 per barrel, and Brent crude oil dropped by 0.89% to $68.59 per barrel [5] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China reported a 7.1% year-on-year increase in the total balance of RMB loans, amounting to 268.56 trillion yuan by the end of the second quarter [9] - Real estate loans showed a slight recovery with a balance of 53.33 trillion yuan, reflecting a 0.4% year-on-year growth [9] - The total amount of foreign capital net purchases of domestic stocks and funds reached $10.1 billion in the first half of the year, reversing a trend of net selling over the past two years [11] Group 4 - JD.com announced a cash investment of 1 billion yuan to recruit "dish partners" for its "Seven Fresh Kitchen" initiative, aiming to establish 10,000 kitchens over three years [20] - Meituan's "Pin Hao Fan" launched a "10,000 Brand Plan" to support 10,000 well-known restaurant brands, enhancing service quality and user attraction [22] - The 2025 Fortune China 500 list revealed that State Grid Corporation topped the list with revenues of $548.4 billion, while Bilibili made its debut on the list [24] Group 5 - LV faced a data breach affecting approximately 419,000 customers in Hong Kong, which could lead to significant reputational damage and potential legal consequences [26] - Tesla opened its first restaurant in California, integrating dining with charging stations, which may represent a new revenue growth point for the company [27] - The launch of the "official direct sales platform" by the "Air Travel Zhongheng" app aims to facilitate ticket purchasing and enhance competition among airlines [28]
金荣中国:美经济前景恶化风险上升,金价大幅走高强势收涨
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-22 01:33
Market Overview - International gold prices surged significantly on July 21, closing at $3,397.91 per ounce after reaching a high of $3,401.44 [1] - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, increased its holdings by 3.43 tons, bringing the total to 947.06 tons [6] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for June recorded a month-on-month decline of -0.3%, worse than the market expectation of -0.2% [2] - The six-month growth rate of the Leading Economic Index weakened, with the diffusion index remaining below 50 for the third consecutive month, signaling a recession [2] - The U.S. GDP growth is projected at 1.6% for the year, with tariffs expected to have a more pronounced impact in the second half [2] Geopolitical Developments - Ukraine and Russia are set to hold the next round of peace talks in Turkey, as stated by Ukrainian President Zelensky [5] - Israel's Foreign Ministry rejected a multi-national joint statement regarding the Gaza conflict, emphasizing Hamas's responsibility for the ongoing violence [5] Federal Reserve Insights - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is at 97.4%, with a 2.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut [6] - The outlook for the U.S. credit rating has been downgraded by Fitch due to increased policy risks and economic slowdown [4]
7月18日电,花旗预计英国央行将在9月份维持利率不变,之前预测降息;花旗预计英国央行将从今年11月开始连续多次降息,直至2026年3月。
news flash· 2025-07-18 06:00
Group 1 - Citigroup expects the Bank of England to maintain interest rates unchanged in September, contrary to previous predictions of a rate cut [1] - Citigroup forecasts that the Bank of England will begin a series of rate cuts starting in November 2023, continuing until March 2026 [1]