澳大利亚央行进一步发出了强烈的信号，表明其需要进一步加息以遏制通胀问题。副行长Andrew Hauser在一次商业午餐会上表示，通胀过高，将采取一切措施将其压低。他补充说，该央行必须尊重经 济的"速度极限"，指的是供应受限而需求强劲的问题。鉴于澳大利亚央行目前的预测显示通胀将在一段 时间内徘徊在目标区间上方，5月份再次加息的可能性似乎很大。 ...

澳大利亚央行进一步发出了强烈的信号，表明其需要进一步加息以遏制通胀问题。副行长Andrew Hauser在一次商业午餐会上表示，通胀过高，将采取一切措施将其压低。他补充说，该央行必须尊重经 济的"速度极限"，指的是供应受限而需求强劲的问题。鉴于澳大利亚央行目前的预测显示通胀将在一段 时间内徘徊在目标区间上方，5月份再次加息的可能性似乎很大。 澳大利亚央行进一步发出了强烈的信号，表明其需要进一步加息以遏制通胀问题。副行长Andrew Hauser在一次商业午餐会上表示，通胀过高，将采取一切措施将其压低。他补充说，该央行必须尊重经 济的"速度极限"，指的是供应受限而需求强劲的问题。鉴于澳大利亚央行目前的预测显示通胀将在一段 时间内徘徊在目标区间上方，5月份再次加息的可能性似乎很大。 责任编辑：王永生 责任编辑：王永生 ...

·中金：相关资源股行情并未结束 ·分析师：近期科技股抛售并不意味着AI投资热潮结束 ·调查显示英国就业市场初现暖意 ·一项受到英国央行货币政策委员会密切关注的调查显示，尽管雇主在1月继续缩减长期岗位的招聘，但 缩减速度已放缓至18个月以来的最低水平。这份由英国招聘与就业联合会（REC）开展的调查还显示， 企业自去年10月以来首次增加了临时工的派遣量。REC的这份报告进一步证明了英国经济在2026年正迎 来转机。 ·凯投宏观亚太区主管Marcel Thieliant指出，日本拟暂停对食品征收销售税，预计将导致通胀率下降约两 个百分点，甚至可能令整体通胀率进入负值区域。即便今年和明年赤字有所扩大，凭借强劲的名义GDP 增长，公共债务占GDP比率仍将进一步快速下降。 ·法国巴黎银行经济学家表示，鉴于日本首相高市早苗的扩张性财政政策可能进一步推升通胀，预计日 本央行将以略快于此前的节奏加息。分析师预计，日本央行将在4月加息，随后每隔四到五个月将继续 收紧政策，直到政策利率达到2%。 ·据马来亚银行（Maybank）外汇研究与策略报告，因区域股市普遍上涨带动风险偏好，新加坡元走 强。报告指出："当前环境下，美元偏向下行 ...

欧洲央行管理委员会成员Gediminas Simkus表示，政策制定者下一步行动在加息或降息方面的概率均 等。 欧洲央行管理委员会成员Gediminas Simkus表示，政策制定者下一步行动在加息或降息方面的概率均 等。 这位立陶宛官员周一表示，经济增长接近潜在水平，但风险平衡随时可能发生变化。 "在当前不确定的国际地缘政治环境下，我们必须做好应对任何情况的准备，"Simkus在维尔纽斯对记者 说。"目前加息或减息的可能性相同——各有一半。" 这位立陶宛官员周一表示，经济增长接近潜在水平，但风险平衡随时可能发生变化。 "在当前不确定的国际地缘政治环境下，我们必须做好应对任何情况的准备，"Simkus在维尔纽斯对记者 说。"目前加息或减息的可能性相同——各有一半。" Simkus还说："经济正处于一种微妙的平衡状态，我们现在正在努力维持这种平衡。经济接近潜在水 平，我们正处于中性利率水平"。 "如果没有意外情况发生，我们将继续按照预测的路线前进"。 关于欧元，"我不认为我们会因为欧元升值而必须做出决定"。 责任编辑：李肇孚 Simkus还说："经济正处于一种微妙的平衡状态，我们现在正在努力维持这种平衡。经济接 ...

法国巴黎 银行经济学家表示，鉴于日本首相高市早苗的扩张性财政政策可能进一步推升通胀，预计日 本央行将以略快于此前的节奏加息。分析师预计，日本央行将在4月加息，随后每隔四到五个月将继续 收紧政策，直到政策利率达到2%。报告指出："根据未来汇率走势，下一次加息提前至3月的可能性不 能排除。"日本官员此前已警告，政府准备对日元过度波动采取措施。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of Kevin Warsh's nomination as the next Federal Reserve Chair, particularly focusing on the relationship between interest rate hikes and balance sheet reduction, challenging the conventional view that they are synonymous [3][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Hikes vs. Balance Sheet Reduction - In a closed financial system, both balance sheet reduction and interest rate hikes can lead to a decline in risk asset prices, which is often collectively referred to as "monetary tightening" [5]. - In an open economy, interest rate hikes can lead to capital inflows and increased liquidity preference, which may counteract the intended effects of tightening, potentially raising risk asset prices instead [8][10]. - The Federal Reserve's prolonged high federal funds rate has coincided with new highs in the U.S. stock market, attributed to aggressive quantitative easing (QE) post-pandemic, despite ongoing quantitative tightening (QT) [10][16]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - For interest rate hikes to be effective, the Federal Reserve must maintain a stable balance sheet or quickly reduce it to counteract cross-border capital flows [11][14]. - The current global monetary landscape complicates coordinated actions among central banks, making cross-border capital flows a significant factor in monetary policy effectiveness [11][13]. - The lesson for macro policy makers is that managing the quantity of money supply is a prerequisite for effective price management; without controlling the quantity, raising interest rates becomes ineffective [16][20]. Group 3: Modern Financial System Dynamics - The evolution of modern financial instruments has altered the dynamics of money supply, leading to a new pricing formula for risk assets that incorporates a hedge asset coefficient [20][21]. - In the modern financial system, while the impact of balance sheet reduction is diminished, rapid balance sheet contraction can still signal the importance of cash, prompting a shift in investor behavior [21][23]. - The relationship between hedge assets and U.S. Treasury bonds is likened to a seesaw, where the perception of cash's value can shift based on the threat of balance sheet reduction [23][25]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The article suggests that if there is no perceived threat of balance sheet reduction, the "cash is trash" mentality will prevail, leading to continued selling of U.S. Treasuries in favor of hedge assets [23][27]. - The potential for balance sheet reduction remains an attractive option for policymakers, particularly in the context of managing interest expenses and maximizing government debt capacity [29][30].

Core Viewpoint - The global financial landscape is experiencing a significant divergence, with central banks in the US and UK remaining on the edge of monetary easing, while those in Australia, New Zealand, and Japan have entered a tightening phase [1][20]. Group 1: Central Bank Actions - The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates for the first time in two years, indicating a shift towards tightening monetary policy [1][20]. - The European Central Bank and the Bank of England both maintained their interest rates, with the latter's decision reflecting a dovish stance, as evidenced by a narrow 5-4 voting outcome [6][26]. - The Federal Reserve has kept rates unchanged, suggesting a prolonged period before any potential rate cuts, despite market expectations for a 25 basis point cut before July [3][23]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - In the UK, slowing wage growth has led to expectations of a near 50 basis point rate cut by the end of the year, following a significant drop in the 2-year government bond yield [6][26]. - Norway's core inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.1% in December, indicating resilient domestic demand, despite the central bank's cautious stance on potential rate cuts [7][27]. - New Zealand's annualized inflation rate accelerated to 3.1%, prompting expectations for two 25 basis point rate hikes by the end of the year as the country shifts towards a hawkish stance [14][34]. Group 3: Global Comparisons - The Swiss National Bank maintains a 0% interest rate, the lowest among major central banks, facing challenges with low price pressures and a strong Swiss franc [8][28]. - The Bank of Canada has kept rates at 2.25%, citing geopolitical risks and uncertainties in US trade policy as potential threats to economic stability [9][29]. - Japan's central bank, which previously stood alone in its tightening approach, now faces pressures from a weakening yen and rising price pressures, complicating its policy path [10][36].

Core Viewpoint - The use of foreign exchange reserves for currency intervention can have an immediate impact on the market, but its effects will be more lasting if accompanied by a commitment to sustained interest rate hikes [1] Group 1: Currency Intervention and Interest Rates - Former senior foreign exchange official Takahiko Nakao emphasizes that actual monetary intervention can strongly influence the market, but a clear commitment from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to continue raising interest rates would enhance the durability of this effect [1] - The BOJ raised interest rates to 0.75% in December last year, yet the actual borrowing costs remain deeply negative [1] - Nakao attributes the weakness of the yen to the BOJ's continued accommodative stance, noting that the slow pace of rate hikes has resulted in significantly negative real interest rates when adjusted for inflation, alongside an expanding US-Japan interest rate differential [1] Group 2: Inflation and Long-term Bond Yields - Nakao suggests that responding appropriately to inflation through interest rate hikes may help curb excessive rises in long-term Japanese bond yields [1] - He warns that if the BOJ delays rate hikes, the yen may weaken further, referencing the nomination of Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, who may favor a strong and stable dollar as beneficial for the US [1]

（文章来源：新华财经） 人民财讯2月6日电，日本央行委员增一行称，若经济和物价符合日本央行的预期将加息；重要的是及 时、适度地加息，以确保核心通胀率不超过2%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The use of foreign exchange reserves for currency intervention can have an immediate impact on the market, but its effects will be more lasting if accompanied by a commitment to sustained interest rate hikes [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Intervention and Interest Rates - Former senior foreign exchange official Takahiro Nakao emphasizes that actual fund intervention can strongly influence the market, but a clear commitment from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to continue raising interest rates would enhance the effectiveness of such interventions [1][2]. - The BOJ raised the short-term policy interest rate to 0.75% in December last year and indicated readiness to continue increasing borrowing costs, yet actual borrowing costs remain deeply negative [2]. - Japan's inflation rate has exceeded the BOJ's 2% target for nearly four consecutive years, contributing to the weakening of the yen [2]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Nakao attributes the yen's weakness to the BOJ's continued accommodative stance, noting that the slow pace of interest rate hikes has resulted in significantly negative real interest rates when adjusted for inflation, alongside an expanding US-Japan interest rate differential [2]. - He suggests that appropriate responses to inflation through interest rate hikes could also help curb excessive rises in long-term government bond yields [3]. - Nakao warns that if the BOJ delays interest rate hikes, the yen may weaken further, and he mentions Kevin Warsh's nomination as a potential future Federal Reserve Chair, who may favor a strong and stable dollar in line with historical precedents [3].