Market Overview - The recent fluctuations in the precious metals market have been significant, with gold prices experiencing volatility influenced by the U.S. CPI data [1][3] - The U.S. June CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since February, while core CPI increased by 2.9% [3][4] - The market is currently facing a "inflation rebound + pressure on gold and silver" scenario, testing investors' risk management capabilities [3] Economic Indicators - The June CPI data showed a structural divergence, with energy prices rising by 0.9% month-on-month, while prices for core items like used cars and airline tickets fell [3] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy faces a dual challenge of managing delayed inflation pressures from tariffs and preventing economic slowdown risks [3][4] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September remain high, with a 62% probability, despite the Fed's current stance on interest rates [4] Investment Strategies - In the current complex market environment, traditional investment strategies are under pressure, particularly for gold, which faces upward pressure on real interest rates despite long-term support from geopolitical risks and central bank purchases [4][6] - Investors are advised to adopt a "barbell strategy," allocating 30% to physical gold for inflation hedging while utilizing platforms like Jinsheng Precious Metals for capturing cross-market opportunities [5][6] - Jinsheng Precious Metals offers advantages such as low trading costs, rapid transaction execution, and robust fund security measures, enhancing the investment experience [5][6] Company Positioning - Jinsheng Precious Metals, as an AA-class member of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, leverages three core advantages: cost optimization, rapid trading experience, and fund safety [5][6] - The company emphasizes a low-cost, high-transparency, and strong protection trading ecosystem, aligning with the evolving landscape of precious metal investments [6]

Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around $3,351.89, with a slight increase of 0.17% from the previous session, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - The highest price reached today was $3,351.89, while the lowest was $3,340.99, showing a range of fluctuation within the trading session [1] Group 2 - A senior economist warns that inflation momentum is clear, and if US-Japan tariff negotiations succeed, an interest rate hike in October is possible [2] - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its inflation forecasts for the current fiscal year and the next, as companies shift from temporary cost-pass-through strategies to more permanent price transmission mechanisms [2] Group 3 - Gold prices are currently experiencing a high-level consolidation, with potential risks of a downturn to around $3,000 or $2,600, but the bullish trend remains intact as long as prices stay above the May moving average [3] - If gold prices break below the May moving average support, they could drop to the $3,000 level, but the likelihood of this happening is considered low due to multiple expected interest rate cuts in the second half of the year [3] - Current indicators suggest a bearish signal, indicating a potential for a pullback, but any decline is expected to find support near the middle moving average, presenting a buying opportunity [3]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan may consider raising at least one inflation forecast in its upcoming policy meeting due to unexpected increases in rice and food prices [1][2] - The central bank is likely to adjust its key price forecast for the current fiscal year from 2.2% due to stronger food inflation and rising oil prices [1][2] - The yen briefly strengthened against the dollar following the news, while Japanese government bond futures fell [2] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% during the meeting on July 31, amid uncertainties from ongoing US-Japan trade negotiations and the upcoming Senate elections [2] - Living costs and rice prices have become critical issues ahead of the elections, with rice prices doubling compared to the previous year, marking the largest increase since 1971 [2] - The central bank believes there is no need for significant adjustments to the overall economic and inflation outlook, maintaining that price trends will align with its sustainable inflation target in the latter half of the three-year outlook period ending March 2028 [3] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan's forecasts for core CPI and core-core CPI for fiscal years 2025 to 2027 are 2.2%, 1.7%, 1.9% and 2.3%, 1.8%, 2% respectively [4] - Officials acknowledge high uncertainty and plan to monitor the impact of US tariffs on upcoming data to determine the timing of future rate hikes [4] - The central bank's president, Ueda Kazuo, indicated that the effects of tariffs have not yet appeared in hard data, while inflation rates remain elevated, reaching a two-year high in May [5]

智通财经7月11日电，日本央行行长表示，关税压力可能会影响到国内的"薪资-通胀循环"，这可能是决 定未来加息时点的关键因素。加息时间可能会被推迟到2026年。 日本央行行长：加息时间可能会被推迟到2026年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The interest of forex traders in the Japanese yen is declining due to concerns over the impact of Trump's tariff policies on the economy, leading to reduced expectations for an immediate interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - Trump's announcement of higher tariffs on 14 countries, including Japan, is expected to negatively impact Japanese exports and may force the BOJ to lower its economic growth forecast in its quarterly outlook on July 31 [1]. - According to Daiwa Securities, the proposed 25% reciprocal tariff on Japanese goods could lead to a cumulative reduction of 1.1% in Japan's real GDP [2]. - The real GDP growth rate for Japan is projected to slow significantly to 0.1%-0.2% in FY2025, down from 0.8% in FY2024, due to the anticipated effects of tariffs [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Outlook - The BOJ is likely to delay interest rate hikes until it can confirm whether companies will continue to increase wages and capital expenditures [1]. - Former BOJ board member Makoto Sakurai indicated that the BOJ may hold off on rate hikes at least until March next year to assess the economic impact of U.S. tariffs [1]. - The BOJ aims to eventually raise rates to at least 1%, ideally reaching 1.5%, but current tariff issues complicate the justification for such increases [2].

Market Overview - The Japanese stock market showed mixed results, with the Nikkei 225 index experiencing a slight decline of 0.02% as of the report [3] - The South Korean KOSPI index increased by 0.29%, reaching 3124.07 points [9] Individual Stock Performance - Sumitomo Pharma saw a significant increase of over 8%, while Omron, Seiko, and Casio rose by more than 5% [5] - Notable declines were observed in companies such as Fujitsu, Nintendo, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries [5] - Specific stock performance data includes: - Sumitomo Pharma: 987.0 JPY, up 8.82%, market cap 392.7 billion JPY [6] - Omron: 4048.0 JPY, up 6.86%, market cap 834.9 billion JPY [6] - Seiko: 1180.5 JPY, up 5.54%, market cap 413.4 billion JPY [6] - Casio: 1161.5 JPY, up 5.50%, market cap 276.1 billion JPY [6] - Nissan Motor experienced a sharp decline, dropping over 3% [5] Economic Insights - Former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Nakaso Hiroshi, emphasized the need for vigilance regarding inflation risks, suggesting that there is still room for further interest rate hikes [7] - New Bank of Japan committee member, Junko Koizumi, hinted at a possible upward adjustment of inflation expectations this month, which could pave the way for another interest rate increase this year [8] Trade and Export Concerns in South Korea - A trade expert in South Korea predicted a significant reduction in exports of major products if the U.S. tariff policy is implemented as planned [9] - Forecasts indicate that exports in the automotive and steel sectors may decline by 7.1% and 7.2%, respectively, from July to December [10] - The expert urged South Korean companies to consider relocating production bases overseas or adjusting export prices to mitigate the impact of high tariffs [10] - There is a call for the South Korean government and industries to reduce reliance on the U.S. market and expand exports to regions such as the EU, ASEAN, and India, while accelerating the transition to high-tech industries [10]

Core Viewpoint - The former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Nakaso Hiroshi, emphasizes the need for the Bank of Japan to be cautious about inflation risks and suggests that there is still room for further interest rate hikes [1] Group 1: Inflation Risks - Nakaso highlights strong wage growth, the ability of companies to pass on costs, and rising inflation expectations as indicators that price pressures in Japan may be greater than policymakers anticipate [1] - He disagrees with the Bank of Japan officials' assessment that the risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the downside, asserting that there are upward risks to inflation, particularly due to labor shortages potentially leading to significant wage increases next year [1]

Global Central Bank Dynamics - The U.S. Labor Department reported an increase of 147,000 non-farm jobs in June, surpassing economists' expectations of 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, contrary to predictions of a rise to 4.3% [1] - Eurozone inflation for June was reported at 2.0%, up from 1.9% in May, reaching the European Central Bank's medium-term target [2] - ECB President Lagarde indicated that while inflation has reached the target, the task is not complete, and warned of geopolitical risks affecting economic stability [3] Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates later this year, with officials indicating that a rate cut is appropriate based on data [2] - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey expressed concerns about the vulnerabilities posed by the growth of stablecoins and their potential impact on monetary trust [4] - The Reserve Bank of Australia is anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.60% amid economic challenges [7] Economic Growth and Inflation Projections - The Polish central bank forecasts inflation to sustainably return to the target range of 2.5%±1 percentage point by Q1 2026, with GDP growth expected to accelerate to 3.6% in 2025 [6] - The ECB is increasing its focus on climate-related economic risks, linking extreme weather events to inflation and GDP impacts [3] Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts predict that a weaker U.S. dollar may lead to increased capital flows into emerging markets, improving financing conditions and asset returns [8] - The market is closely monitoring upcoming central bank meetings and speeches for potential shifts in monetary policy, particularly regarding inflation and employment data [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, stated that any interest rate hike measures will depend on three factors related to inflation dynamics [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring inflation dynamics to determine the timing and extent of any potential interest rate increases [1] Inflation Dynamics - Ueda emphasized that the decision on interest rates will hinge on three specific elements of inflation, although the details of these elements were not disclosed in the article [1]

智通财经7月1日电，日本央行委员增一行表示，近期经济形势表明，日本央行目前不宜急于加息，而应 审慎决策，密切关注各项经济数据。 ...