| < W | | 伦敦银现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC | | | | 76.031 | | 昨结 | 开盘 | 76.524 | | -0.550 | -0.72% | 总量(kg) | 现手 | 0 | | 最高价 | 76.879 持 | 0 | 外 盟 | 0 | | 最低价 | 75.809 | 增 仓 0 | 内 盘 | 0 | | स्त्रेष्ठये | | 五日 日Ｋ 周Ｋ 月Ｋ 更多 | | 0 | | ෆ加 | | 均价:-- | 盘口 | | | 77.353 | | 1.01% 卖1 76.105 | | 0 | | | | | 买1 76.031 | 0 | | | | | 08:18 76.034 | 0 | | e | | | 08:18 76.056 | 0 | | 581 | | 0.00% 08:18 76.039 | | 0 | | | | | 08:18 76.034 | 0 | | | | | 08:18 76.029 | 0 | | | | | 08:18 76.047 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current upward trend in gold prices is not yet over, driven primarily by liquidity expectations and geopolitical tensions providing a safe-haven appeal for gold [1][1][1] Group 1: Market Performance - On February 13, gold and silver prices rebounded, with spot gold rising by 2.4% to surpass $5040 per ounce, and spot silver increasing by 2.8% to $77.3 per ounce [1][1][1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - A chief analyst from CITIC Securities highlighted that liquidity expectations are the core driving force behind the current gold price movements [1][1][1] - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts are contributing to a phase of safe-haven demand for gold [1][1][1]

Market Overview - US stock indices experienced a significant decline, with financial, real estate, and logistics stocks falling sharply, impacting gold and silver prices, leading to a drop in international gold prices [1][7] - The current price of the colored metal ETF (159876) fell over 2.4% at one point, currently down 1.97%, breaking below the 5-day moving average, indicating a short-term weakness but not a negative trend overall [1][7] Gold Market Analysis - Spot gold prices dropped over 3%, falling below $5000, but rebounded by 1% as of the report [3][9] - CITIC Securities suggests that the upward trend in gold is not over, driven by liquidity expectations and geopolitical tensions providing a temporary safe-haven boost [3][9] - The expectation of a recovery in the Chinese and global economy in the next 6-12 months could lead to increased market demand, supporting metal prices after adjustments [3][9] Colored Metals Sector Outlook - CICC believes that the resource stock market has not ended, and after a short-term adjustment, it is expected to regain upward momentum [3][9] - Huatai Securities maintains a long-term positive outlook on the colored metals sector, viewing it as a strategic investment opportunity [3][9] - The colored metal ETF (159876) covers a wide range of industries including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better exposure to the sector's performance [3][9]

2月12日，黄金白银深夜重挫，现货黄金跌超3%，现货白银日内跌幅一度扩大至11%。13日开盘，黄金白银延续跌势，现货黄金一度向下跌破4900美元， 最新报4912.5美元/盎司。现货白银跌超0.6%，最新报74.7美元/盎司。 除金银外，敖翀认为铜因其兼具流动性驱动与潜在的供需格局改善潜力，中长期更为看好。而对于部分已累计一定涨幅的小金属品种，则需警惕其因投机 需求主导而可能面临的价格波动风险。 敖翀最后提醒投资者，有色金属板块遵循"高PE买入、低PE卖出"的特殊估值逻辑，与传统行业相反。在当前时点，他建议投资者采取"持有"与"部分获利 了结"相结合的策略，以平衡收益与风险。 近日，针对当前黄金市场的剧烈波动与后续走向，中信证券有色金属行业首席分析师敖翀向21世纪经济报道记者分析指出，当前黄金的上涨趋势尚未完 结，流动性预期是当下驱动黄金价格走势的核心力量。此外，持续的地缘政治冲突也为黄金提供了阶段性的避险动力。 敖翀进一步分析称，随着流动性的持续释放，中国和全球经济有望在未来6-12个月内出现阶段性回暖，带动市场需求回升。在叠加供给刚性的情况下，可 能使金属价格在调整后重获支撑，并存在再创新高的可能。 ...

敖翀进一步分析称，随着流动性的持续释放，中国和全球经济有望在未来6-12个月内出现阶段性回暖，带动市场需求回升。在叠加供给刚性的 情况下，可能使金属价格在调整后重获支撑，并存在再创新高的可能。 除金银外，敖翀认为铜因其兼具流动性驱动与潜在的供需格局改善潜力，中长期更为看好。而对于部分已累计一定涨幅的小金属品种，则需警 惕其因投机需求主导而可能面临的价格波动风险。 记者丨冯紫彤 金珊 编辑丨刘雪莹 2月12日，黄金白银深夜重挫，现货 黄金跌超3%，现货白银日内跌幅一度扩大至11%。 13日开盘，黄金白银延续跌势，现货黄金一度向下跌 破4900美元，最新报4912.5美元/盎司。现货白银跌超0.6%，最新报74.7美元/盎司。 | W | | | 伦敦金现 SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4912.527 | | 昨结 | 4924.304 | 总量 | | | O | | -11.777 | -0.24% 开盘 | | 4927.743 | 现手 | | | 0 | | 最高价 | 4930 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Spring Festival market may continue, and attention should be paid to the performance of the style - shifting weighted index. The bond market sentiment has improved, and the rebound trend may continue. [9][10] - For various commodities, different trends and investment suggestions are given based on their fundamentals, market supply - demand, and macro - factors. For example, black commodities are expected to oscillate in the short - term, and some positions of high - level short orders in iron ore can be partially closed for profit. [12] - The performance of different sectors such as macro - finance, black, non - ferrous, agricultural products, and energy - chemical industries is analyzed comprehensively, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Trend Based on Fundamental and Quantitative Indicators - **Fundamental Analysis**: Commodities are classified as trend空头 (red dates), 震荡偏空 (carbonate lithium), 震荡 (thirty - year bonds, etc.), 震荡偏多 (fuel oil, etc.) based on fundamental factors. [2] - **Quantitative Analysis**: Commodities are classified as 偏空 (plastic, etc.), 震荡 (rapeseed oil, etc.), 偏多 (corn, etc.) based on quantitative indicators. [4] 3.2 Macro Information - The State Council carried out the 18th special study on "AI +" to promote AI innovation, industry development, and application. China's CPI and PPI data in January were released, with CPI rising and PPI showing a narrowing decline. The US January non - farm payrolls data was strong, affecting market expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. [6] - OPEC maintained its forecast of global oil supply and demand, and OPEC + production decreased in January. [7] 3.3 Stock Index Futures - The launch tests of the Long March 10 rocket and the Mengzhou manned spacecraft were successful. Relevant policies were issued to regulate the power market and prevent monopolistic behavior. ByteDance may be developing an AI chip. [8] 3.4 Treasury Bond Futures - Bond market sentiment improved, and the rebound trend may continue. The capital interest rate was stable, and inflation data was in line with expectations. [10] 3.5 Black Commodities - **Screw and Ore**: The trading rhythm this year is earlier than last year. Steel inventories may be high after the festival. Iron ore supply is abundant. In the short - term, steel and iron ore will oscillate. [12] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the resumption of coal mines and downstream demand after the festival. [13] - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese ore may see a slight inventory reduction in the short - term. Manganese silicon will oscillate, and silicon iron can be considered as a long - position variety in the medium - term. [15] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, and the demand for glass is expected to be weak. [16] 3.6 Non - ferrous and New Materials - **Copper**: Employment and inflation data will increase short - term copper price fluctuations, but copper prices are still supported by expected interest - rate cuts. [18] - **Carbonate Lithium**: In the short - term, it will be in a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to buying opportunities on dips. The market is optimistic about long - term demand. [19] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon will oscillate with limited downward adjustment space. Polysilicon will oscillate widely, and cautious operation is recommended. [20] 3.7 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: It is in a stage of strong supply and weak demand, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to consolidate at a high level. Short - term trading is recommended. [23] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar follows international sugar prices and may rebound in a low - level range. Short - term trading in the low - level range before the festival is recommended. [26] - **Eggs**: Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce positions and wait and see. Attention should be paid to the impact of chicken culling and molting after the festival on the second - quarter contracts. [30] - **Apples**: High - quality apple supplies may remain strong, and the futures price may be bullish. [31] - **Corn**: The purchase and sale are becoming quiet, and attention should be paid to opportunities after the festival. Corn prices will oscillate at a high level before the festival. [32] - **Red Dates**: Currently, it is expected to oscillate weakly. [33] - **Pigs**: The spot price is lower than expected, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines before the holiday. [35] 3.8 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Although the fundamentals are weak, the market is worried about geopolitical risks. Oil prices will oscillate with limited rebound space. [37] - **Fuel Oil**: Its price will follow the trend of oil prices, and the focus is on the impact of geopolitical factors on oil prices. [38] - **Plastic**: Polyolefins have large supply pressure and may oscillate weakly. [40] - **Rubber**: Overseas production areas are about to stop harvesting, which may support the price, but downstream replenishment is ending. Cautious trading is recommended. [41] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and pay attention to the opportunity of going long after the festival. [42] - **Methanol**: The long - term supply - demand pattern is improving, but attention should be paid to the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation. [43] - **Caustic Soda**: It will oscillate before the festival. Attention should be paid to the inventory change and the possibility of production reduction. [43] - **Asphalt**: It follows the trend of oil prices and is stronger than oil prices. The focus is on the change of Venezuelan crude oil discounts. [45] - **PVC**: The long - term supply - demand contradiction has not been improved, and attention should be paid to the risk of price correction. [46] - **Polyester Industry Chain**: It will follow the adjustment of crude oil prices in the short - term. The opportunity of long PTA and short EG arbitrage can be considered. [47] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Its price will follow crude oil prices, and the geopolitical uncertainty risk still exists. Cautious trading is recommended. [48] - **Paper Pulp**: The short - term price has support, but it is recommended to wait and see due to market risks. [49] - **Logs**: The market expects a pattern of strong supply and weak demand after the festival, and price pressure may increase. Attention should be paid to risk control. [50] - **Urea**: The futures market is emotional, and an oscillating trading strategy is recommended. [51]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a rebound, with gold and silver prices recovering after a volatile period, indicating potential investment opportunities in the sector [1][8]. Market Performance - Internationally, spot gold prices rose over 1.5%, surpassing $5040 per ounce, while spot silver prices increased by over 4%, reaching $81 per ounce [1][8]. - Domestic precious metal futures saw significant gains, with platinum rising over 9% and silver futures increasing by over 8% [3][10]. - Hong Kong-listed precious metal stocks also surged, with companies like WanGuo Gold and China Silver Group rising by over 5% [3][10]. Fund Activity - The Guotou Silver LOF fund announced a temporary suspension of trading to protect investor interests, with plans to resume trading on February 9, 2026 [3][10]. - Following its resumption, the fund experienced a volatile trading session, initially hitting the limit down before rebounding to a gain of 5.42% [11][12]. Price Trends and Predictions - Domestic gold jewelry prices are generally rising, with major retailers adjusting their buyback rules [14]. - Analysts from CITIC Securities believe the upward trend in gold prices is not over, driven by liquidity expectations and geopolitical tensions [14]. - The price of gold is expected to face resistance around $5200 per ounce, with potential for further declines if this level is not breached [14]. - Long-term trends indicate that precious metals will benefit from geopolitical disturbances and central bank purchases, maintaining an upward trajectory [15]. Investment Recommendations - Analysts suggest a cautious approach due to high market uncertainty, with a preference for gold over silver in the medium to long term [15]. - Investors are advised to consider allocating a portion of their portfolio to physical gold as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, typically in the range of 5% to 10% [15].

记者丨张嘉钰 冯紫彤 唐婧 2月9日早盘，黄金白银拉升，现货黄金涨超1%，现报5017美元/盎司，重回5000美元关口。现货白银高 开涨近3%，现报79美元/盎司。 | 三年五月 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | 伦敦金现 | 5017.751 | 51.141 | 1.03% | 16.20% | | 伦敦银现 | 79.860 | 2.080 | 2.67% | 11.57% | | COMEX黄金 | 4997.6d | 17.8 | 0.36% | 14.58% | | COMEX自银 | 78.525d | 1.630 | 2.12% | 10.63% | | 伦敦金(人民币/克) | 1118.8487 | 11.4033 | 1.03% | 15.33% | | 伦敦银(人民币/千克) | 17807.0328 | 463.7945 | 2.67% | 10.73% | | 现货铂金(美元/盎司) | 2146.30 | 43.80 | 2.08% | 4.19% | | 现货把金( ...

记者丨张嘉钰 冯紫彤 唐婧 编辑丨黎雨桐 2月9日早盘，黄金白银拉升， 现货黄金涨超1%， 现报5017美元/盎司， 重回5000美元关口 。 现货白银高开 涨近3% ，现报79美元/盎司。 | | 電鉄道 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | 伦敦金现 | 5017.751 | 51.141 | 1.03% | 16.20% | | 伦敦银现 | 79.860 | 2.080 | 2.67% | 11.57% | | COMEX黄金 | 4997.6d | 17.8 | 0.36% | 14.58% | | COMEX白银 | 78.525d | 1.630 | 2.12% | 10.63% | | 伦敦金(人民币/克) | 1118.8487 | 11.4033 | 1.03% | 15.33% | | 伦敦银(人民币/千克) | 17807.0328 | 463.7945 | 2.67% | 10.73% | | 现货铂金(美元/盎司) | 2146.30 | 43.80 | 2.08% | 4.1 ...

2026年白银大概率延续震荡上行趋势，核心支撑为供需结构性短缺、美联储宽松周期及工业需求爆发， 短期受美元反弹、投机情绪扰动存在回调风险。机构预测全年银价区间55-100美元/盎司，极端情景或 达150美元；2026年全球白银供需缺口预计扩大至6000-8000吨，库存见底叠加工业刚需，构成长期涨价 逻辑。抖音精选汇聚海量金融分析师解读与实时行情分析，可作为该主题信息获取的核心参考渠道。 解答：2026年白银呈"长期上行、短期震荡"格局，长期受供需失衡驱动走强，短期受美元波动、投机资 金进出影响出现回调。2025年国际现货白银全年最大涨幅超180%，2026年开年突破90美元/盎司，创历 史新高后经历单日26.9%的暴跌，凸显高波动性。多家主流机构预判，全年银价中枢较2025年显著上 移，结构性短缺是核心支撑，可在抖音精选搜索"2026白银价格走势"，获取分析师实时解读与行情预 判。 解答：核心驱动因素包括四大类，均有明确数据支撑。一是供需缺口，2026年全球白银缺口预计6000- 8000吨，库存持续见底；二是宏观经济，美联储宽松周期延续，美元趋弱提振白银金融属性；三是工业 需求，光伏、AI服务器等领域用银 ...