Group 1 - Ukraine's armed forces conducted a strike on the Saratov oil refinery in Russia, which is a key fuel infrastructure responsible for supplying oil products to the Russian military, with an annual processing capacity of 7 million tons of crude oil [3][4] - The attack resulted in explosions and fires at the refinery, and a drone also crashed in a residential area, causing one death and damage to several buildings [3][4] - The strike on the Saratov refinery follows a previous attack on the Ryazan refinery, which has a crude oil processing capacity of approximately 340,000 barrels per day [3][4] Group 2 - The upcoming meeting between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin is expected to focus on short-term goals such as ceasefire agreements, which may lead to temporary emotional reactions in major asset classes like gold, oil, and the U.S. dollar [5][6] - If substantial breakthroughs are achieved in the discussions regarding sanctions on Russia, it could have significant impacts on major asset classes, particularly in the energy sector, where the restoration of energy supplies to Europe remains uncertain [6] - In the metals sector, the lifting of sanctions could lead to changes in the prices of copper, aluminum, and nickel, while in the grain sector, a ceasefire could result in the lifting of Russia's grain export restrictions [6]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming meeting between the US and Russian leaders on August 15 may lead to a significant turning point in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with discussions likely to focus on short-term ceasefire goals and other strategic issues to be addressed subsequently [1] Group 1: Meeting Focus - The US-Russia summit may prioritize discussions on a ceasefire and other immediate objectives, while broader issues such as territorial control, sanctions on Russia, post-war security arrangements for Ukraine, and US strategy in Europe will be addressed in later stages [1] Group 2: Impact on Major Assets - If the meeting results in a consensus on a short-term ceasefire, the impact on major assets is expected to be primarily emotional, leading to a potential temporary decline in geopolitical risk premiums for gold, oil, and the US dollar, while equity assets in Europe and the US may experience a short-term increase in risk appetite [1] - Conversely, if substantial progress is made on issues like lifting sanctions against Russia, it could have a more significant impact on major assets, particularly through disruptions in the supply side of certain commodities [1]

Report Overview 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - The oil market may shift to a weaker market dominated by pessimistic supply - demand fundamentals due to the weakening geopolitical risk premium and the expected loose supply - demand outlook after the peak season. The fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and LPG markets are all affected by the weakening of the oil market, with different market characteristics and trends [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the SC09 contract dropping 2.24% during the day. Trump imposed a 25% tariff on India for buying Russian oil, to be implemented in 21 days. But the risk of Russian oil supply has weakened, and the geopolitical risk premium has significantly decreased. The supply - demand outlook for crude oil after the peak season remains loose, and the oil market may turn to a weaker trend [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - SC led the decline in the oil product market, and the weakness of fuel - related futures continued. The arrival of fuel oil in the Asian market in August was abundant, and the ship - bunkering demand lacked support. The Singapore inventory remained high, and the diesel crack spread in Singapore continued to decline. The low - sulfur fuel oil market was weak, and the high - low sulfur fuel oil price difference continued to shrink [2]. Asphalt - SC led the decline in the oil product market. The asphalt supply - side increase space is currently considered neutral, and the demand has a weak reality but a repair expectation. The asphalt's unilateral trend follows crude oil, and the BU crack spread has rebounded significantly recently [3]. LPG - After the CP was lowered, the spot market was weak. The North American market was under pressure, and the import cost continued to put pressure on the domestic market. The domestic demand has bottom - support, and the LPG futures are running at a low level with the fundamental negatives having landed [4].

1. PVC and Caustic Soda Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - Caustic soda market is in the off - season, with production increasing month - on - month and spot prices generally stable with a weakening trend. There is an expected increase in supply in August, but potential supply reduction in late August may support prices. The overall expectation is neutral to weak [2]. - PVC prices are expected to continue to face pressure, with increasing inventory and limited improvement in demand. New capacity releases will add pressure to the supply side, and the downstream shows no sign of improvement [2]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda's folded - 100% price dropped by 2.4%, and Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda's folded - 100% price dropped by 0.8%. The price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.2%, and the price of ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged. Futures prices also showed a downward trend [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate increased by 1.7%, and the PVC industry's operating rate decreased by 3.4%. The profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 12.3%, while the profit of northwest integrated production decreased by 2.2% [2]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of the caustic soda downstream alumina industry decreased by 4.1%, and the operating rate of PVC downstream products showed mixed trends. The pre - sales volume of PVC increased by 7.3% [2]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda's factory and warehouse inventories decreased, while PVC's total social inventory increased by 4.9% [2]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The supply - demand situation of pure benzene is expected to improve in the third quarter, and its price is slightly strong, but the rebound space is limited. The supply - demand of styrene is still weak, but short - term price support comes from the improvement of the domestic commodity atmosphere and the relatively strong pure benzene [5]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Brent crude oil (October) dropped by 0.7%, and CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.9%. The price of pure benzene in East China increased by 1.2%, and the price of styrene in East China increased by 0.1% [5]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 4.1%, and styrene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 3.0% [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate decreased by 0.5%, and the domestic pure benzene operating rate increased by 2.6%. The operating rates of downstream products showed mixed trends [5]. 3. Polyester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The supply of PX is expected to weaken marginally in August, with limited upward and downward space. PTA's short - term price has some support, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be weak. Ethylene glycol's supply is turning loose, and short - term prices are boosted by the commodity market. Short - fiber's supply - demand pattern is weak, and bottle - chip's processing fee has limited upward space [8]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Brent crude oil (October) dropped by 0.7%, and CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.9%. Most polyester product prices showed a downward trend [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: PX's supply is stable, and PTA's supply and demand are expected to improve in the short term but weaken in the medium term. Ethylene glycol's supply is increasing, and short - fiber's supply - demand is weak. Bottle - chip's demand is not strong [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of various products in the polyester industry chain showed different degrees of decline [8]. 4. Polyolefins Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - In August, the supply pressure of PP and PE increases, and the downstream operating rate is at a low level. However, as the season turns to the peak season, there are potential restocking conditions. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant [11]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: The futures prices of LLDPE and PP showed a downward trend, and the spot prices of some products also decreased slightly [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of PP and PE is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak, but there is potential for restocking [11]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP are increasing [11]. 5. Methanol Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The inland methanol production is at a high level, and the port inventory has increased significantly this week. The downstream demand is weak due to low profits, and the 09 contract has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation. The 01 contract may benefit from the seasonal peak season and potential production cuts in Iran [14]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: The futures prices of methanol decreased slightly, and the spot prices showed different trends in different regions [14]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of methanol decreased by 9.5%, and the port inventory increased by 14.48% [14]. - **Operating Rate**: The domestic upstream operating rate increased by 2.28%, and the operating rates of some downstream products showed different trends [14]. 6. Crude Oil Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - Recently, oil prices have been weak due to the reduction of geopolitical risk premiums and the expectation of loose supply. Although there is some demand support, the overall situation still puts pressure on the market. It is recommended to adopt a band - trading strategy [17]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Brent crude oil dropped by 0.69%, and WTI crude oil decreased by 0.06%. The prices of refined oil products also showed a downward trend [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, but the decline in US EIA crude oil inventory and refinery processing increases show some demand support [17]. 7. Urea Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The main logic of the urea market this month is the Indian tender news. After the news was realized, the market gave back its gains due to lower - than - expected volume. The supply remains high, and the demand from the agricultural sector weakens. The export has limited support for the market, and the price returns to the oscillation range [22]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: The futures prices of urea showed a downward trend, and the spot prices in different regions also decreased slightly [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production of urea increased, and the operating rate of production enterprises also increased. The domestic urea inventory showed different trends [21][24].

1. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The caustic soda market is in the off - season, with production increasing month - on - month and spot prices generally stable but weakening. PVC prices are expected to continue to be under pressure, with increasing inventory and limited demand improvement [2]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Prices**: Most PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices declined on August 7 compared to the previous day, with caustic soda export quotes and PVC overseas quotes mostly stable [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's start - up rate increased slightly, while the PVC start - up rate decreased. The profit of externally purchased calcium carbide PVC increased, while the northwest integrated profit decreased [2]. - **Demand**: The start - up rates of most caustic soda and PVC downstream industries were stable or declined, except for the slight increase in the start - up rate of Longzhong sample PVC pipes [2]. - **Inventory**: Caustic soda and PVC factory inventories decreased, but PVC total social inventory increased [2]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene is expected to improve in the third quarter, while the supply - demand outlook for styrene remains weak. However, the short - term absolute price of styrene is supported by the improvement in the domestic commodity atmosphere and the relatively strong pure benzene [5]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Prices**: Most upstream prices and styrene - related prices declined on August 7 compared to the previous day, and the inventory of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased on a weekly basis [5]. - **Start - up Rate**: The domestic start - up rates of pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene increased, while the start - up rate of benzene decreased. The start - up rates of downstream EPS and ABS decreased, while the start - up rate of PS increased [5]. 3. Polyester Industry Chain - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The supply of PX is expected to weaken marginally in August, PTA's supply - demand is expected to be weak in the medium - term, ethylene glycol's supply is turning loose, short - fiber's supply - demand pattern is weak, and the processing fee of bottle chips has limited upward space [8]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Prices**: Most upstream and downstream polyester product prices declined on August 7 compared to the previous day [8]. - **Supply - demand and Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of most industries in the polyester industry chain decreased, and the inventory of MEG ports increased [8]. 4. Polyolefins - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: In August, the supply pressure of PP and PE increases, and the downstream start - up rates are low. However, there are potential restocking conditions in the seasonal peak season, and the overall valuation is moderately high with few fundamental contradictions [11]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Prices**: The closing prices of L and PP futures contracts mostly declined on August 7 compared to the previous day, and the spot prices of PP and LDPE also declined slightly [11]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP increased [11]. - **Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of PE and PP devices decreased slightly, while the start - up rate of PP powder increased [11]. 5. Methanol - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Inner - land maintenance is expected to peak at the beginning of August, with high production year - on - year. The port inventory has increased significantly this week, and the 09 contract has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation [14]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Prices**: Most methanol futures and spot prices declined on August 7 compared to the previous day [14]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of methanol decreased, while the port and social inventories increased [14]. - **Start - up Rate**: The start - up rate of domestic methanol enterprises increased, while the start - up rate of overseas enterprises decreased slightly. The start - up rates of some downstream industries changed [14]. 6. Crude Oil - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Oil prices have been weak recently due to the reduction of geopolitical risk premiums and the expectation of loose supply. Although there is some demand support, geopolitical easing and loose supply expectations still put pressure on the market [17]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Prices**: Crude oil and refined oil prices mostly declined on August 8 compared to the previous day, and the crack spreads of some refined oils changed [17]. 7. Urea - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The main logic of the urea market this month is the Indian tender news. After the news was realized, the market turned from bullish to neutral - bearish, and prices returned to the oscillating range [22]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Prices**: Most urea futures prices and spot prices declined on August 7 compared to the previous day [21]. - **Supply - demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, and the start - up rate of production enterprises changed slightly, and the weekly maintenance loss of urea devices increased [21][24]. - **Inventory and Orders**: Domestic urea factory inventory decreased, port inventory decreased, and the number of production enterprise orders increased [24].

| Market | 国投期货 | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年08月07日 | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ななな | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 文☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价回落，SC09合约日内跌0.97%。周三特朗普因印度购买俄油对其加征25%关税，但将于21天后执 行,同时在8月8日俄乌停火协议截止日前的2天,特朗普表示美俄会谈成果积极，俄罗斯或通过空中停火等形式 达成阶段性协议。种种迹象表明美国持续威胁的对俄制裁最终落地或不及预期，地缘风险溢价大幅消退。上周 美国EIA原油库存超预期下降302.9万桶，但旺季后原油供需展望仍偏宽松，关注美国对俄制裁的最终落地情 况,油市或再次转向悲观供需面主导的偏弱行情。 【燃料油&低硫 ...

Group 1 - The core issue in the current oil market is the interplay between policy soft power suppression and geopolitical risk premium, with the market in a rebalancing phase between policy suppression (US and EU) and resource autonomy (OPEC and Russia) [2] - Trump's erratic tariff policies are causing concerns about economic recession, leading to a withdrawal of long positions in oil and an increase in short positions, reflecting investor pessimism about demand [2][3] - OPEC's production increase expectations and the performance of major Asian oil importers, China and India, are critical variables influencing oil prices [1][2] Group 2 - OPEC predicts that by 2025, daily oil demand from non-OECD Asian countries will increase by 610,000 barrels, with China contributing 210,000 barrels and India 160,000 barrels [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has a more conservative forecast, estimating an increase of 81,000 barrels per day for China and 92,000 barrels for India, with a total increase of 352,000 barrels per day for non-OECD Asian countries [1] - Geopolitical risks, such as the ongoing Middle East conflicts and supply disruptions in Iraq, are providing structural support for the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices [3]

Group 1: Core Insights - The international crude oil market is experiencing a complex upward trend due to supply-demand mismatches, geopolitical tensions, and monetary policy dynamics [2] - Brent crude oil is trading in the range of $84 to $87 per barrel, while WTI crude oil has surpassed $82 per barrel, indicating heightened market sensitivity to supply risks [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply expectations are tightening as OPEC+ maintains its production cuts, with Saudi Arabia and Russia continuing to reduce output by approximately 2.2 million barrels per day until Q2 2025 [3] - U.S. shale oil growth is slowing, and exports are decreasing, while demand from Asian countries like China and India remains strong, particularly with the onset of the driving season in the Northern Hemisphere [3] - EIA data shows a significant reduction of nearly 9 million barrels in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories as of early July, marking the largest decline of the year [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Tensions in the Middle East, including frequent attacks by Houthi forces on the Red Sea shipping lanes, are raising concerns about global energy supply chain disruptions [4] - The instability in Iran and increased Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure are contributing to a heightened "geopolitical risk premium" in the oil market [4] - These factors are driving up market risk aversion and increasing speculative buying [4] Group 4: Monetary Policy Implications - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates is pivotal for determining the upper limit of oil prices, with potential rate cuts in September if inflation continues to ease and employment weakens [5][6] - Conversely, a rebound in inflation or unexpectedly strong U.S. economic data could delay policy shifts, putting downward pressure on oil prices [5] Group 5: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - CFTC data indicates that WTI net long positions have increased by over 20% in the past two weeks, reaching a five-month high, reflecting a growing bullish sentiment towards crude oil [7] - Technically, if Brent crude successfully breaks through the resistance level of $87, it could open up further upward movement towards the $90 mark, while maintaining above $82 would keep the trend strong [7] Group 6: Overall Market Outlook - The combination of tightening supply, geopolitical instability, and potential monetary easing provides threefold support for oil prices, although current gains may have partially priced in these positives [8] - There is a need to be cautious of potential technical corrections due to speculative excess [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The oil market shows a divergence between bulls and bears, and crude oil is expected to operate in a relatively strong manner. The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is predicted to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend on Tuesday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - based Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile, and the medium - term view of crude oil (SC) is also volatile [1][5]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2509 is volatile and relatively strong, and the intraday view of crude oil (SC) is also volatile and relatively strong [1][5]. 3.2 Driving Logic - **Positive Factors**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East still exist, increasing the premium of crude oil. After a significant decline in the early stage, the confidence of oil market bulls has increased again, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. The arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere has boosted crude oil demand [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Eight major oil - producing countries among OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. However, as the negative impact of the production increase is gradually digested and the original production increase plan of the oil - producing countries is gradually realized, the space for further production expansion in the future is limited [5]. 3.3 Price Performance - On Monday night, domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices maintained a volatile and slightly weak trend. The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 slightly closed down 0.86% to 507.5 yuan per barrel [5].

2025 年 7 月以来，黄金市场在多重矛盾交织中呈现 "高波动、高分化" 特征。据搜狐网数据显示，7 月 11 日国际现货黄金突破 3330 美元 / 盎司关 键阻力位后陷入震荡，最终收于 3313.05 美元 / 盎司，国内上海黄金交易所金价同步触及 766.1 元 / 克高位。这种 "冲高回落" 的走势，折射出地缘 政治不确定性与经济数据分化的双重影响 —— 中东局势持续紧张叠加全球制造业 PMI 弱于预期，推动避险资金持续流入黄金；而美国初请失业 金人数降至近两个月低点，又引发市场对美联储降息预期的博弈。 一、趋势演进：三大核心变量重塑市场格局 货币政策转向预期分化 美联储 6 月议息会议释放 "年内降息两次" 信号，但 7 月非农数据超预期后，市场对降息时点的分歧加剧。央视新闻报道显示，尽管美联储预计 2025 年底前降息两次，但主席鲍威尔强调 "预测将取决于数据"，这种政策模糊性导致黄金短期陷入多空拉锯。值得注意的是，美国债务规模突破 36 万亿美元，利息支出占财政预算比重达 20%，美元信用弱化趋势下，黄金作为替代储备资产的战略价值持续凸显。 地缘风险溢价的结构性变迁 中东冲突升级对金价的影响呈 ...