Group 1 - Gold prices have surged, breaking the historic threshold of $5,500 per ounce, with silver following suit [1] - The market is buzzing with discussions about "safe-haven," "monetary attributes," and "historical highs" [2] - The situation is different from the typical "sector rotation" or "catch-up" narrative [3] Group 2 - Copper's value has changed, becoming a strategic asset rather than just a cyclical commodity [6][4] - The driving forces behind copper's price changes overlap with those of gold and silver but are more complex [5] - The current market is experiencing a significant shift in perception regarding copper, moving from a "trading commodity" to a "portfolio asset" [17] Group 3 - The macroeconomic backdrop has dramatically changed, leading to a questioning of the dollar's credibility, with the dollar index hitting a four-year low [9] - As trust in the dollar system wavers, investors are seeking alternatives, with gold being the primary beneficiary of this sentiment [10][11] - Copper, priced in dollars, also benefits from the dollar's depreciation, as it becomes more expensive in dollar terms [14][15] Group 4 - Geopolitical risks are rising, impacting both gold and copper, with increased demand for gold as a safe haven during turbulent times [18][20] - The supply of copper is threatened by political and community uncertainties in major copper-producing regions [21][22] - The geopolitical risk premium is being factored into copper prices, adding an "insurance cost" to its valuation [23] Group 5 - The current spot market for copper is weak, with increasing global inventories and a lack of demand from China [28][29] - The significant price difference between spot and futures copper indicates an oversupply in the market [32] - The weak demand reflects a broader issue where the global economy cannot support the current high copper prices [36] Group 6 - The long-term outlook for copper is driven by structural supply issues and a robust demand forecast due to global energy transitions [39][46] - The anticipated demand from electric vehicles and renewable energy projects is expected to significantly increase copper consumption [47][48] - The market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between weak short-term realities and strong long-term expectations for copper [49] Group 7 - The pricing logic for copper is evolving, moving away from traditional supply-demand dynamics to include strategic resource premiums and inflation hedges [54][55] - Short-term volatility is expected as the market adjusts to current conditions, with potential for significant price fluctuations [56][60] - In the medium to long term, copper is likely to establish its own upward trend, driven by persistent supply challenges and increasing demand [60][62]

若想中长期布局油气板块，投资者可以考虑关注富国基金旗下的标普油气ETF（513350），聚焦美股油 气勘探和生产领域的个股；近2日涨超10%，当前溢价率为8.31%，需关注短期溢价风险。 每日经济新闻 消息面上，美联储维持联邦基金利率在3.5%～3.75%不变，在流动性预期稳定的背景下，能源等顺周期 板块获得强力支撑。 研究机构认为，国际形势动荡加剧，为原油期货注入地缘风险溢价。同时，冬季风暴导致美国原油产量 损失和炼油厂中断情况超预期，加剧空头回补。此外，美国能源信息署（EIA）数据显示，美国上周原 油库存减少229.5万桶，远低于市场预估的增加184.8万桶，库存意外下降进一步支撑油价。 1月29日，受到国际油价走强、地缘风险溢价上升及美国原油供应扰动等因素影响，标普油气ETF盘中 （513350）狂飙近9%，截至发稿的最新涨幅为5.7%！标的指数成分股中，KOSMOS能源等美股昨夜大 涨。 ...

| œ œ aple œ 1 | | --- | | 1 - | | A œ | | œ | | 17 | | 7 2 | | 1 | | 原油 | 女女女 | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | ★☆★ | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | 女女女 | 能源日报 2026年01月27日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 当前原油市场正处地缘风险溢价与供应过剩甚本面的拉锯中。美国对伊朗制裁升级并将航母部署中东引发市场 担忧。OPEC+称预计将在2月1日的会议上维持3月原油产量稳定的计划。其中一位代表表示，目前尚无远参表费明 需要针对本月委内瑞拉和伊朗的动荡事件作出反应。另一位代表指出,尽管如此,若出现重大的供应中断，仍 可能促使OPEC+增加产量。202601全球原油市场库存压力显著，市场谨慎对待地缘犹动，供需宽松始终是压制油 份涨幅的长期因素，布伦特原油反弹至65美元/桶,WTI反弹至61美元/桶关键位置后上行动能减 ...

证券研究报告 石油天然气 地缘溢价或提前带动油价筑底反弹 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 26 日│中国内地 行业月报 地缘紧张局势再起，油价或已进入筑底反弹阶段 26 年 1 月以来，委内瑞拉、伊朗等地缘紧张局势再次引发市场供应风险担 忧，1 月 23 日 WTI/Brent 期货价格收于 61.07/65.88 美元/桶，较 12 月末上 涨 6.4%/8.3%。我们认为地缘溢价已导致淡季油价筑底反弹，随着需求回升 及全球性储备性累库，26Q2-Q3 油价有望见底上探，叠加美联储降息对需 求拉动，亚非拉地区成品油需求或景气上行，上调 26 年布伦特均价为 65 美元/桶（前值 62 美元/桶）。长期而言，考虑主要产油国边际成本及"利 重于量"诉求，油价中枢存 60 美元/桶底部支撑。具备增产降本能力及天然 气业务增量的能源龙头企业或将显现配置机遇，推荐中国石油（A/H）、中 国海油（A/H）；油价筑底后库存损失减少，叠加炼化有望迎来盈利低迷下 的景气反转，推荐中国石化（A/H）。 需求侧：北半球需求淡季，中国原油进口量同环比显著提升 据 IEA，考虑宏观经济和贸易前景改善，叠加油价下跌及美元走弱，上调 2 ...

操作评级 | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2026年01月26日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 今日燃料油市场因地缘风险溢价交易而全线走强,尤其高硫燃料油受供应中断担忧支撑,涨幅显著。短期地缘 因素将持续支撑高硫表现。而从实际供应看。1月中东及俄罗斯对亚太到港量有所提升,一定程度上填补了委内 瑞拉原料分流的缺口。且随着委内瑞拉重油转向美国,美湾高硫产量增加,若套利窗口打开,后续可能对亚洲 市场形成传导压力。低硫燃料油方面,新加坡地区供应此前略显紧张,但上周末现货结构已由升水转为贴水, 显示紧张态势有所缓解。柴油裂解价差走强从组分端传导支撑，带动低硫裂解价差同步走强。中期来看，供应 端主要驱动在于海外炼厂装置开工变化：科威特出口逐步上行,而尼日利亚丹格特族厂RFCC装置回归推迟，供 应整体呈现小幅增加趋势。展望后续，燃料油预计将跟随原油延续偏强走势。 【沥青】自1月初美委冲突导致沥青元旦 ...

操作评级 | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2026年01月26日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 当前原油市场正处地缘风险溢价与供应过剩甚本面的拉锯中。美财政部23日宣布针对伊朗实施新一轮制裁措 施，增加了8个实体和9艘油轮。对伊朗制裁升级、航母部署中东引发供应中断担忧。啥萨克斯坦Tengi2油田因 火灾影响全面停产,此前初步评估需7-10天修复、但最新消息称可能在本月剩余时间继续停产,1月该国原油产 量预计仅为100万-110万桶/日，明显低于此前的180万桶/日。202601全球原油市场库存压力显著，ElA数据显示 美国原油、汽油均超预期累库,尤其馏分油由预期去库转为实际累库。委内瑞拉原油重返市场、俄乌谈判的进 展削弱了与俄罗斯供应中断相关的长期风险。市场谨慎对待地缘犹动，视其为短期影响因素，供需宽松始终是 压制油价 ...

ccmn沪镍走势：今日午盘后沪期镍横盘后小涨，沪期镍主力月2602合约开盘报149880元/吨，盘中最高 报152300元/吨，最低价报145310元/吨，收盘报145380元/吨，上涨360元/吨，涨幅为0.25%，沪镍主力 月2602主力合约成交量718003手。 据长江有色属网统计：1月26日ccmn长江综合1#镍价149850元/吨-158150元/吨，均价报154000元/吨，较 前一日价格上涨4100，长江现货1#镍报149900元/吨-158300元/吨，均价报154100元/吨，较前一日价格 上涨4150元，广东现货镍报157650元/吨-158050元/吨，均价报157850元/吨，较前一日价格上涨4600 元。 本观点仅供参考，不做操盘指引（长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn） ccmn镍市分析：宏观面，今日镍价强势反弹，是宏观与地缘两大核心力量共振的结果。宏观层面，美 元持续走弱与全球流动性宽松预期共同构筑了金属牛市的基础。美元指数跌破97关口，创下阶段新低， 这不仅降低了以美元计价的镍的全球购买成本，更反映了资金从传统美元资产向大宗商品迁移的"大迁 徙"趋势。与此同时，国内稳增长政策 ...

来源：中国证券报-中证网 2026年开年，国际贵金属市场迎来"大爆发"。 1月26日，伦敦现货黄金冲破5000美元/盎司，逼近5100美元/盎司，伦敦现货白银更是一举升破109美元/盎司，双双创下历史新高。 南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹表示，本轮贵金属价格上行主要由三重逻辑共振驱动：其一，地缘风险溢价持续发酵，叠加欧洲因关税争端抛 售美债，对美元汇率构成边际压制；其二，政策不确定性加剧，进一步推升市场避险情绪，强化了贵金属的配置需求；其三，美元弱势形成共振，美债遭 抛售的压力直接拖累美元指数走弱，为贵金属价格上涨提供了强劲动能。 国投期货高级分析师刘冬博表示，美联储主席换届、地缘冲突前景、贸易摩擦谈判等令全球宏观走向极具不确定性。大变局背景下，黄金是对冲货币贬值 以及系统性风险的重要选择，更是金融体系中重要的战略性配置工具。 贵金属市场仍处易涨难跌格局 就当前行情而言，刘冬博表示，2025年黄金价格年度涨幅达到1979年以来最高，对比历史牛市行情，此轮行情依然具备向上空间。此前各大国内外机构普 遍给出的5000美元/盎司目标已经实现，后续金价具备继续向更高维度冲击的潜力。 业内人士表示，美欧地缘博弈 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ [2] - Asphalt: ★★★ [2] Core Views - The main tone of the crude oil market is a bearish pattern dominated by loose supply and demand. The short-term upside potential of oil prices is limited unless there is a significant disruption in oil supply due to conflicts [3]. - The fuel oil market is still dominated by geopolitical factors. High-sulfur fuel oil is affected by geopolitical risks such as the US-Iran tension, and its near-term prices are relatively strong. Low-sulfur fuel oil is under pressure due to the marginal increase in supply, but it is supported by the upward movement of gasoline and diesel cracking spreads [4]. - The asphalt market follows the trend of crude oil, but its price fluctuations are relatively limited. The market is in a range-bound pattern, and the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil needs to be closely monitored [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Trump's administration postponed military action against Iran, causing the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices to partially reverse. The short-term upside potential of oil prices is limited, and the market is mainly under pressure due to loose supply and demand [3]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market is geopolitically driven. High-sulfur fuel oil supply may tighten if Iranian exports are blocked, and the US high-sulfur market is suppressed by increased imports of Venezuelan raw materials. In the medium term, supply is expected to be loose. Low-sulfur fuel oil is supported by winter demand, but supply pressure is emerging as overseas refineries increase production. The absolute price of fuel oil follows crude oil, with high-sulfur being stronger in the near term and low-sulfur under pressure [4]. Asphalt - The asphalt market follows the trend of crude oil, but its price fluctuations are relatively limited. The market is in a range-bound pattern after factoring in the expected increase in costs due to the tightening of Venezuelan crude oil shipments to China. The arrival of Venezuelan crude oil needs to be closely monitored [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and asphalt are all rated with three stars, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main tone of the crude oil market is a bearish pattern dominated by loose supply and demand, and the short-term upside potential of oil prices is limited [3] - The fuel oil market is still dominated by geopolitical factors, with high-sulfur fuel oil being strong in the near term due to geopolitical disturbances and low-sulfur fuel oil being pressured by increasing marginal supply [4] - The asphalt price fluctuates with the crude oil price, and the current upward driving force is limited, falling into a range-bound pattern [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Trump's administration postponed military action against Iran, causing the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices to partially reverse. Unless there is a significant disruption in oil supply, the short-term upside potential of oil prices is limited, and the market is dominated by a bearish pattern of loose supply and demand [3] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market is geopolitically driven. For high-sulfur fuel oil, geopolitical risks such as the US-Iran tension are in focus. If Iranian exports are blocked, regional supply will tighten. In the medium term, supply tends to be loose due to abundant raw materials, floating storage, and high inventories. For low-sulfur fuel oil, winter demand provides some support, but overseas refinery supply is increasing, and supply pressure is emerging. The absolute price of fuel oil follows crude oil, with high-sulfur being strong in the near term and low-sulfur being pressured by increasing supply [4] Asphalt - The asphalt price fluctuates with the crude oil price but with a relatively limited amplitude. After the current market has priced in the expected cost increase due to the tightened supply of Venezuelan oil to China, the upward driving force is limited, and it has entered a range-bound pattern. Attention should be paid to the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil [5]