但美国经济数据疲软和供需面走弱可能限制铜价上涨空间 关税预期摇摆，铜价重拾涨势。 本周铜价持续冲高，截至6月6日收盘，沪铜期货收于78930元/吨，日内涨810元。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜期货本周录得四连涨，并触及9809美元/吨，创近两个月新高，纽约商品交易所 （COMEX）铜期货五连涨，价格更是一度飙升至5.06美元/磅，距离今年3月创下的5.37美元/磅历史高位仅一步 之遥。 交易人士分析称，这轮涨势和3月份铜价狂飙的行情有相似之处，是美国关税预期引发的全球库存"大转移"、矿 端供应紧张与需求复苏的复杂博弈。但在经历过3月行情后，市场可能对此敏感性会有所下降。 今年3月份，LME铜价突破1万美元/吨，五矿期货有色研究员吴坤金分析称，海外贸易局势相对反复，尽管美国 提高钢铁关税对美铜形成向上的脉冲刺激，但总体情绪面持续性待观察。产业上看铜原料供应较为紧张，但加 工费边际企稳和精废价差扩大使得供应紧张情绪边际缓和，叠加消费端韧性有所减弱，预计铜价上涨仍面临阻 力。 价差走阔，铜市套利交易再起 尽管关税政策尚未正式落地，但市场已提前反应。 "交易商预期美国将对铜征收关税，希望从美国铜价上涨中获利，大量铜库 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, warns that excessive government spending and aggressive quantitative easing (QE) by the Federal Reserve have set the stage for a potential collapse of the bond market, indicating that the timing of this crisis is uncertain [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Market Concerns - Dimon believes that the U.S. government's previous large-scale spending and the Federal Reserve's extensive QE policies have created a "ticking time bomb" for the bond market, leading to an inevitable collapse [2]. - He expresses uncertainty about when this crisis will occur, suggesting it could be in six months or six years, and emphasizes the need for a change in the debt trajectory and market-making capabilities [2]. - Dimon acknowledges the return of "bond vigilantes," indicating a growing concern among investors regarding government debt levels [2]. Group 2: Internal Threats to the U.S. - Dimon identifies "internal enemies" as the greatest threat to the U.S., rather than foreign adversaries, highlighting issues such as mismanagement and the need for reform in various sectors including government regulation, immigration, and healthcare [3]. - He calls for improvements in governance and management to enhance the U.S. economy's growth potential, suggesting that addressing these issues could lead to an annual growth rate of 3% [3][4]. Group 3: Tax Policy Recommendations - Dimon supports taxing profits from arbitrage trading, aligning with recent efforts by the Trump administration to close tax loopholes in this area [6][7]. - He proposes using the revenue from this tax to increase income tax credits, potentially benefiting individuals without children, estimating an additional cost of $60 billion for this initiative [7]. - Dimon argues against allowing significant state and local tax (SALT) deductions and urges Congress to pass tax legislation before focusing on other growth issues [8].

摩根大通CEO戴蒙：美国绝对应当对套利交易征税。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that the Turkish central bank's decision to allow the lira to depreciate against the US dollar poses risks to successful global arbitrage trades, potentially aimed at limiting hot money inflows and addressing exporters' concerns about an overvalued currency [1][3]. Group 1: Central Bank Policy - The Turkish central bank is allowing the lira to depreciate at a rate exceeding typical levels, which may be a strategy to curb capital inflows [1]. - The report suggests that the central bank may have decided to stop increasing reserve requirements to counteract foreign exchange inflows driven by capital [1]. - The current depreciation of the lira contradicts the central bank's target to reduce monthly inflation from approximately 38% last month to 24% by year-end and to 12% by 2026 [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, a popular presidential candidate, the value of the lira has been negatively impacted, exacerbating inflation and prompting the central bank to halt its interest rate cuts initiated in December [3]. - In May, the lira depreciated by about 1.6% against the dollar, following a 1.4% decline the previous month, indicating a trend of weakening currency [3]. - The reliance on external markets has become a disadvantage, as international investors sold off lira assets after İmamoğlu's arrest, further intensifying market turmoil [4]. Group 3: Liquidity Management - The Turkish central bank's liquidity management has become complicated due to the influx of funds, which it has used to increase reserves while injecting billions of lira into the financial system [4]. - The central bank faced a situation of over 1 trillion lira in excess supply, posing a threat to its strict monetary policy [4].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that the recent depreciation of the Turkish lira poses risks to one of the most successful global arbitrage trades, contradicting policymakers' goals to reduce inflation from approximately 38% last month to 24% by the end of this year and to 12% by 2026 [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Currency Policy and Inflation Targets** - The current pace of lira depreciation is at odds with the Turkish central bank's inflation reduction targets [1] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the central bank may abandon its current foreign exchange policy during the July meeting as it likely restarts the interest rate cut cycle [1] - **Market Implications** - The existing exchange rate policy is viewed as a preemptive measure to avoid significant appreciation of the real exchange rate [1]

Group 1 - The influx of hot money into Hong Kong has led to a rise in the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) exchange rate to 7.75, but it has recently dropped to a low of 7.84, marking the weakest level since September 2023 [1][2] - Factors such as increased IPO activity, southbound capital inflows, low deposit rates in mainland China, and capital returning from the US are driving liquidity into Hong Kong [1][2] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) may intervene further in the market due to the negative interest rate differential between the US dollar and the HKD [2] Group 2 - The HIBOR (Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate) is expected to rise in the coming months due to dividend distributions, quarter-end funding demands, and the absorption of liquidity from bond and stock issuances [1][2] - The current loan-to-deposit ratio in Hong Kong is 20 percentage points lower than in 2019, indicating low credit demand despite a liquidity-rich environment [2] - The HKMA's currency peg system has remained intact since 1983, despite historical foreign exchange crises [2]

Core Insights - Interest rates are a core component of monetary policy adjustments by central banks, directly impacting the foreign exchange market through currency supply and demand, market expectations, capital flows, and policy differentiation [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Effects - Rate hikes attract capital inflows, reduce currency circulation, and strengthen the domestic currency, with the Federal Reserve's rate hikes typically leading to a stronger US dollar [2] - Rate cuts decrease the attractiveness of domestic assets, leading to capital outflows and currency depreciation [3] Group 2: Market Expectations - Market expectations often preemptively incorporate interest rate decisions, and discrepancies between actual decisions and expectations can lead to significant currency fluctuations [4] - Forward guidance from central banks directly influences market expectations, as indicated by Powell's comments in May 2025, which suggested a higher threshold for rate cuts, resulting in a short-term strengthening of the dollar [4] Group 3: Tariffs and Inflation - Tariff policies, such as those from the Trump administration, may increase inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain high rates to control prices, indirectly supporting the dollar [5] - Differentiation in central bank rate decisions can lead to currency fluctuations, exemplified by the significant drop in the GBP against the NOK when the Bank of England cut rates while the Norwegian central bank held rates steady in May 2025 [5] Group 4: Arbitrage and Capital Flows - Interest rate differentials drive arbitrage, where investors borrow in low-rate currencies to invest in high-rate currency assets, increasing demand for high-rate currencies [6] - Changes in liquidity due to central bank balance sheet adjustments can indirectly alter exchange rates, as seen when the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction decreases dollar supply, potentially supporting its value [6] Group 5: Short-term vs Long-term Impacts - Short-term volatility in the foreign exchange market often occurs following interest rate announcements due to emotional market reactions [7] - Long-term currency trends are determined by the overarching direction of monetary policy [8] Group 6: Market Outlook - The current global monetary policy divergence, coupled with uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies, has led to increased volatility in the foreign exchange market [9] - Key areas for investor focus include the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory, potential adjustments in response to inflation or economic data, geopolitical risks from escalating trade tensions, and emerging market currency crises [9] - Arbitrage opportunities driven by interest rate differentials and capital flows will remain central to short-term trading strategies [9]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of cash-settled futures based on Shanghai's natural rubber futures by the Osaka Exchange aims to meet the hedging needs of companies holding natural rubber inventories in China against price fluctuations [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Japan is the largest importer and consumer of natural rubber globally, and the Shanghai futures contract is one of the most liquid rubber futures in the world [3]. - The opening price on May 26 was set at 14,380 points per contract, with the contract months being January, May, and September, which are the most active trading months for Shanghai's natural rubber futures [4]. Group 2: Hedging and Arbitrage Opportunities - The new mechanism allows companies to hedge against price volatility of natural rubber inventories held in China, which was previously challenging for foreign investors due to the RMB-denominated pricing and limited access [4][5]. - The potential for arbitrage between the newly listed Shanghai natural rubber futures index product and existing futures could lead to increased trading volume in Osaka's market, benefiting global trading companies [5]. Group 3: Market Participation and Future Outlook - The Osaka Exchange's president expressed hopes that the collaboration with Shanghai's market would not only facilitate arbitrage but also align with the actual demand from Japanese manufacturing in China [6]. - Current observations indicate that domestic demand in Japan remains cautious, while overseas investors show higher interest, highlighting the need for effective information dissemination and market promotion to attract more participants [6].

一般情况下，日本银行会对债市进行干预，不过主要聚焦在十年期国债。日本银行对超长期债市的干预 仅仅是象征性的。从去年开始，日本央行便致力于货币环境正常化，但是庞大的套利交易盘成为政策执 行的巨大掣肘。如今市场主动调整，正中央行下怀，所以日本银行乐得作壁上观，让市场通过收益率的 变化自己去解决供需错配问题。 日本超长债市上，借贷杠杆不是特别高，衍生产品也不多。所以价格动荡会导致投资的账面亏损，但未 必触发系统性风险。尤其日本央行在十年期国债市场还有相当的影响力，笔者认为这次市场突变不会对 日本金融体系构成很大的系统性风险，但可能对全球资金结构和流向带来重大变数。 日本是世界上最大的储蓄国，但由于长期的超低利率环境，日资多投向海外资产，对日本经济和日元资 产帮助有限。从政策制定者的角度，当然希望引导日资回流，改善本国的资金流动性。现在日本本币的 长期收益率明显上涨，而美债收益率扣除汇率对冲成本后已经不再有吸引力。日本在海外拥有超过1000 万亿日元的净资产，这笔资金部分回流对全球金融市场都可能是一个冲击。 这次市场突变不会对日本金融体系构成很大的系统性风险，但可能对全球资金结构和流向带来重大变 数。 资金将焦点从货 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong dollar is approaching the weak end of its trading range, prompting traders to increase borrowing for arbitrage as local interest rates decline [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - The Hong Kong dollar fell to a low of 7.8294 against the US dollar, nearing the weak end of the convertibility range of 7.85 [1] - Since May, the Hong Kong dollar has depreciated nearly 1%, heading towards its largest monthly decline since the implementation of the linked exchange rate system in 1983 [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Recent weeks have seen pressure on the Hong Kong dollar as the interest rate differential between Hong Kong and the US has widened to record levels [1] - Following a significant drop in the US dollar that pushed the Hong Kong dollar towards the strong end of the convertibility range, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority injected liquidity into the financial system earlier this month [1]