Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 500 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation, resulting in a net injection of 375 billion yuan after offsetting 125 billion yuan of maturing loans [1] - This marks the third consecutive month of increased MLF operations, with net injections of 200 billion yuan in March, 500 billion yuan in April, and 375 billion yuan in May, indicating a consistent monetary policy aimed at supporting the real economy [1][2] - The continuous MLF operations, alongside recent reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts, reflect a "combination punch" approach by the PBOC to enhance liquidity in the market and support economic stability [1][2] Group 2 - The acceleration of government bond supply and the upcoming maturity of 9 trillion yuan in reverse repos and 1.25 trillion yuan in MLF highlight the need for ongoing liquidity support from the PBOC [2] - The PBOC's strategy includes a structural optimization of liquidity tools, as evidenced by the reduction of reverse repos alongside increased MLF, which aims to stabilize short-term funding while meeting banks' medium-term liquidity needs [2][3] - The large net injection of liquidity in May is expected to support credit expansion and social financing growth, leading to a potential "wide credit" phase as policy effects become more apparent [3]

2025 年 5 月 23 日 股指期货将震荡整理 黄金、白银、铜、氧化铝、焦煤、 玻璃、纯碱期货将偏弱震荡 PTA、甲醇期货将偏强震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2506 阻力位 3905 和 3933 点，支撑位 3864 和 3850 点；IH2506 阻力位 2726 和 2734 点，支撑位 2698 和 2689 点；IC2506 阻力位 5666 和 5700 点，支撑位 5560 和 5540 点；IM2506 阻力位 60 ...

1、 央行今日将开展5000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期。 由于本月有1250亿元MLF到期， 这意味着5月央行MLF净投放将达到3750亿元，为连续三个月加 量续作。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青判断，综合当月降准及央行各类中期流动性管理工具操作，5月中长期流动性将处于大额净投放状态。这将为后期 新投放信贷、新增社融提供重要支撑，接下来将出现一个宽信用过程，存量社融和M2增速有望持续走高。 4、司法部副部长胡卫列介绍规范涉企行政执法专项行动表示，截至5月21日，工作平台共汇集各地区各部门问题线索6232条，督促办理5246条， 整治的 问题涉案金额3.35亿元，为企业挽回损失9881.35万元。 1、证监会发行监管司司长严伯进表示，证监会将持续优化科技企业境内上市的环境，会实施更加灵活精准的新股发行逆周期调节机制， 把握好新股发行 的节奏。 继续发挥好创新试点的相关制度，支持优质红筹科技企业回归境内上市。 2、 美国总统特朗普的减税法案在众议院以微弱优势通过，将交由参议院审议。 该法案计划在未来十年内减税逾4万亿美元，并削减至少1.5万亿美元支 出。该法案将把美国债务上限提高4万亿美元，低于参议院所希望的5万 ...

"当前外部环境仍面临很大不确定性，国内稳增长政策还不能松劲。"王青判断，综合当月降准及央行各 类中期流动性管理工具操作，5月中长期流动性将处于大额净投放状态。这将为后期新投放信贷、新增 社融提供重要支撑，接下来将出现一个宽信用过程，存量社融和M2增速有望持续走高。 责编:史健 | 审校:张翼鹏 | 审核:李震 | 监审:古筝 首先，4月以来外部环境波动加剧，国内实施超常规逆周期调节。其中，5月7日央行等部门推出包括降 息降准在内的一揽子金融政策措施，全面加大金融对实体经济的支持力度。5月降准后MLF继续大额加 量续作，显示数量型政策工具在持续发力。这在保持银行体系流动性处于充裕状态的同时，会进一步增 加银行的信贷投放能力，更好满足企业和居民的融资需求，增加实体经济信贷融资的可获得性。 其次，5月MLF大额加量续作，也可能意味着本月买断式逆回购将再度缩量续作，以满足商业银行对央 行融资工具需求的结构性调整。4月MLF加量续作5000亿元，当月买断式逆回购缩量5000亿元。由此， 需要结合月末央行公布的买断式逆回购操作规模，判断5月整体中期流动性投放情况。考虑到5月降准落 地，预计本月中期流动性整体投放或出现小幅 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 500 billion MLF operation on May 23, with a net injection of 3750 billion MLF for May, indicating a continuous increase in liquidity support for the economy [2][3] - The acceleration of government bond supply and the upcoming maturity of 900 billion reverse repos and 125 billion MLF highlight the liquidity management challenges faced by the PBOC [2][3] - Analysts expect that despite a slight reduction in mid-term liquidity due to the recent rate cuts, the overall liquidity will remain in a net injection state, supporting new credit and social financing growth [4] Group 2 - The interbank market liquidity is currently ample, with short-term funding rates generally declining, indicating a trend towards a more relaxed funding environment [3] - The structural adjustment in the demand for PBOC financing tools suggests that the reverse repo operations may decrease in scale to accommodate the banks' needs [3] - The ongoing uncertainties in the external environment and the need for domestic growth stabilization imply that the PBOC will continue to implement supportive monetary policies [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the market pricing for upward fluctuations in funding rates is significantly greater than for downward movements, which is directly related to the "short-term experience" of tight funding at the beginning of the year [1] - The report highlights that the "scar effect" of funding transmission to bond rates is still present, indicating concerns about rising rates [1] - It is expected that the overnight funding rate (DR001) has room for further downward adjustment, with a baseline assumption of returning to a level of 1.4% for narrow fluctuations [1] Group 2 - The optimistic scenario suggests that the DR001 could operate within a range of 30 basis points below the Open Market Operations (OMO) rate [1] - Current concerns regarding medium and short-term bond rates are not about upward movements but rather about the timing of downward adjustments [1]

Group 1: Monetary and Credit Data - As of the end of April, the total social financing stock reached 424 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, and M2 balance was 325.17 trillion yuan, also showing a year-on-year increase of 8% [1] - The RMB loan balance at the end of April was 265.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, and after adjusting for local debt replacement, the growth rate still exceeded 8% [1] - In April, new RMB loans increased by 280 billion yuan, which was 450 billion yuan less than the same month last year, resulting in a credit growth rate of 7.2%, down 0.2 percentage points month-on-month [2] Group 2: Factors Affecting Credit Growth - The decline in credit data for April was influenced by multiple factors, including the traditional low lending month, increased global trade tensions, and the acceleration of local debt replacement [2][3] - The cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for debt replacement reached approximately 3.6 trillion yuan, corresponding to the replacement of loans of about 2.1 trillion yuan, which helped maintain a loan growth rate above 8% [2] - The short-term loans for enterprises decreased by 480 billion yuan in April, while bill financing increased by 834.1 billion yuan, indicating a potential slowdown in credit expansion [3] Group 3: Deposit and Investment Trends - In April, M2 grew by 8.0%, up 1.0 percentage points from March, while M1 growth slightly declined to 1.5% [4] - Total deposits increased by only 440 billion yuan in April, with a notable decrease in both resident and corporate deposits, suggesting a trend of deposits moving towards investments [4][5] - The net financing of government bonds in April increased significantly by 10.666 trillion yuan, becoming a core support for social financing [6] Group 4: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - The current credit and monetary environment is stabilizing, with expectations for further interest rate cuts to stimulate private sector financing demand [7] - The government is focusing on implementing a series of incremental policies to enhance financial support for technological innovation, which may lead to increased credit supply [7]

究 东 海 观 ——宏观数据观察 分析师： 事件要点： 察 宏 观 4月新增人民币贷款2800亿元，预期6946亿元，前值36400亿元。4月社会融资 规模增量为11591亿元，预期13971亿元，前值为58900亿元；4月末，社会融资规 模存量为424万亿元，同比增长8.7%，较上月上升0.3%。4月末，广义货币（M2） 同比增长8.0%，预期7.2%，前值7.0%，M2较上月上升0.8%，高于市场预期。 摘要： 2025年5月15日 [Table_Title] 4月信贷需求偏弱，但政府融资持续发力 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn HTTP://WWW.QH168.COM.CN 1 / 4 请务必仔细阅读正文后免责申明 东 海 研 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 [table_main] [Table_Report] 4月社会融资规模增量为11591亿元，预期13971亿元，前值为58900亿元；人民币贷款增 加2800亿元，预期6946亿元，前值36400亿 ...

Credit Growth - In April, the total social financing increased by CNY 1.16 trillion, below the expected CNY 1.3 trillion and significantly lower than the previous month's CNY 5.9 trillion[2] - New RMB loans amounted to CNY 280 billion, compared to an expectation of CNY 764.4 billion and a previous increase of CNY 3.6 trillion[2] - Corporate loans decreased by CNY 2.5 trillion year-on-year, with new corporate loans at CNY 610 billion in April[3] Household Loans - Household medium and long-term loans showed resilience, with a year-on-year decrease of CNY 435 billion, maintaining a marginal improvement from March[2] - Short-term household loans decreased by CNY 501 billion year-on-year, indicating a weakening trend[2] Corporate Financing Factors - The slowdown in corporate loans is attributed to several factors, including a reduced pace of debt replacement and weakened demand due to tariff disturbances[3] - Special refinancing bonds issued in April totaled CNY 261.7 billion, down CNY 121.3 billion from the previous month, indicating a decline in overall replacement capacity[3] Government Bond Financing - In April, government bond financing contributed significantly, with an increase of CNY 9.76 trillion year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of over CNY 1 trillion increase[4] - The issuance of special bonds in April was CNY 230.1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of CNY 239.6 billion[4] Monetary Supply - M2 growth improved to 8% in April, while M1 growth decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 1.5%[5] - Non-bank deposits saw a significant increase, reflecting the end of the interest rate pricing self-discipline mechanism and the entry of capital into the stock market[5]

宏观动态报告 浮现宽货币,等待宽信用 2025 年 4 月金融数据解读 2025 年 5 月 14 日,央行发布 2025 年 4 月 金融数据, 4 月 M1 同比 1.5% ( 前 ● 值 1.6%），M2 同比 8.0%（前值 7.0%）。新增社融 1.16 万亿元,同比多增 1.22 万亿元，社融增速 8.7%（前值 8.4%）。金融机构新增人民币贷款 2800 浮现宽货币:我们认为 4 月的金融数据呈现比较明显的宽货币特征,M2 重回 8%,4 月全球贸易政策不确定性显著上升,不可避免对企业和居民预期带来 冲击,但衡量信心的 M1 仅小幅滑落并未失速。适度宽松基调下,央行展现保 持金融总量充裕的政策意图,2025年信贷供给侧的发力已比较明确。 等待宽信用:在 4 月的金融数据中,我们尚未找到宽信用链条已经建立的证 据,从政府融资前置到政府支出加快,再到拉动私人部门信用扩张的循环尚未 建立,宽信用仍然需要等待。我们认为在价格水平低位运行的背景下,货币政 策的传导效果部分被稀释。政策性金融工具和 PSL 有望在二季度适时推出协 同发力,这将有助于增加货币政策的传导效果,实现宽信用。 货币供应量数据: M ...