Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, indicating the possibility of two more rate cuts within the year, amidst significant internal divisions among committee members [1][3][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates reflects a risk management approach, balancing upward inflation risks against downward employment risks [5][8]. - The dot plot indicates a split among committee members, with 6 supporting no further cuts and 9 favoring two additional cuts this year [1][3]. Economic Projections - The median forecast for the federal funds rate in 2026 is concentrated between 3.25%-3.75%, suggesting a potential 75 basis points of room for further cuts compared to current levels [4]. - Projected GDP growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9% respectively, with unemployment rates expected to decline slightly from 4.5% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2027 [11]. Inflation and Employment Insights - Commodity price increases are identified as a significant driver of inflation, with expectations that these effects will intensify in the remaining months of the year and into the next [7]. - The labor market is showing signs of softening, which supports the rationale for the recent rate cut and potential future cuts [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was met with mixed reactions, highlighting a tug-of-war between dovish and hawkish members, leading to volatility in various markets [1][2][19]. Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, with Chair Jerome Powell indicating a lack of support for a larger cut of 50 basis points [1]. - The statement released was more dovish than expected, while the subsequent press conference was perceived as bearish, causing market fluctuations [2][19]. Economic Conditions - The Fed is facing challenges with both inflation rising and a weakening labor market, indicating a difficult position regarding its dual mandate [4][5]. - Inflation has been above the Fed's target for nearly six years, raising concerns about credibility if inflation expectations become unanchored [5][6]. Market Reactions - The Russell 2000 index rose nearly 2%, reflecting a positive response from interest rate-sensitive small-cap stocks [18]. - The 10-year Treasury yield dipped below 4% but later increased, indicating market volatility in response to the Fed's announcements [18][19]. Future Outlook - Upcoming jobless claims data will be crucial for market sentiment, with expectations that higher claims could lead to a risk-negative day [23][24]. - The trajectory of the job market, inflation realities, and corporate guidance will significantly influence market conditions in the near term [25].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate cut since December 2024, lowering rates by 25 basis points, signaling a shift in focus from combating inflation to boosting employment [1][4][7] - The Fed's statement removed previous affirmations of a strong labor market, acknowledging a slowdown in job growth and a slight increase in unemployment, indicating rising risks in employment [4][7] - The median expectation from the Fed's dot plot suggests a total rate cut of 0.5 percentage points by the end of the year, with two more 25 basis point cuts anticipated in the remaining meetings [4][10] Group 2 - Barclays Research predicts a slight increase in the unemployment rate and heightened risks in employment, suggesting the Fed may implement two more 25 basis point cuts in October and December [3][11] - The Fed's inflation forecasts have been adjusted, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expected to be 2.6% in 2026, indicating a longer path to achieving the 2% target [6][10] - The recent employment data shows a significant downward revision in non-farm payrolls, with the U.S. experiencing negative job growth over the past four months, justifying the 25 basis point cut [9][19] Group 3 - The appointment of Stephen I. Miran, a proponent of aggressive rate cuts, has introduced political dynamics into the Fed's decision-making process, as he voted against the 25 basis point cut [12][14] - The Fed's internal divisions regarding future rate cuts are evident, with varying predictions among officials about the number and magnitude of future cuts [15][19] - Market reactions to the rate cut have been mixed, with initial gains in U.S. stocks followed by a reversal, indicating uncertainty about the economic outlook and the effectiveness of the Fed's policies [17][19] Group 4 - Analysts express concerns that the current economic environment may lead to speculative bubbles if additional monetary easing is applied to an economy that is not weak [18][19] - The historical context of past rate cuts shows that while equities may experience volatility, gold often benefits from a declining dollar and increased demand for safe-haven assets during such periods [25][19] - The Fed's recent actions are seen as part of a broader trend towards a more dovish monetary policy framework, reflecting changing macroeconomic conditions and labor market dynamics [15][19]

关于"为什么在通胀仍高时降息"，有记者提问，今日行动究竟是"保险式降息"，还是认为下行已成事 实？鲍威尔回应称，可以视为"风险管理型"的保险式降息：增长预测略有上调，但就业风险结构已显著 变化，就业"确实在冷却"，委员会需要把这点反映到政策设置中。有记者追问，如果就业放缓部分与移 民减速有关，而通胀仍明显高于目标，为何优先降息？鲍威尔解释，劳动力供给与需求双降，需求降得 更快，失业率上行即是证据；委员会必须在双重使命之间权衡，近期通胀二次上行的广泛性与持续性风 险相较数月前有所缓和，而就业的下行风险上升。 （原标题：鲍威尔称此次降息是风险管理决策 政策重点从通胀转向就业） 智通财经APP获悉，周三，在美联储公布最新议息决议后，主席鲍威尔在记者会上表示，此次行动属 于"风险管理型"降息，随着就业市场降温、通胀仍高于目标且短期上行风险偏上，委员会选择朝更中性 的政策姿态迈出一步，同时保持"逐会决策(meeting-by-meeting)"，以便根据数据与风险再平衡灵活调 整。 从宏观现状出发，鲍威尔称近期指标显示经济动能放缓，今年上半年美国GDP增速约1.5%，低于去年 的2.5%；消费放缓是主要拖累，企业投资较 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：Harry文社） 凌晨两点的华盛顿，一场没有硝烟的"内战" 2025年9月17日，美联储埃克尔斯大楼地下二层，咖啡味混着打印机碳粉味。走廊尽头，理事沃勒把一 张折成四折的A4纸塞进布雷纳德手里——纸上只有一行手写体："25 or 50？This is not math, this is religion." 是的，降息多少已不再是经济学，而是信仰。鸽派把2.2万的新增就业看作"衰退先兆"，鹰派把3.3%的 核心通胀预测当成"撒旦之火"。鲍威尔必须在午夜前让12个人在一张声明上签字，而市场已经把预期打 到"9月100%降息"的铜墙铁壁上。 这一幕，像极了1979年沃尔克反通胀的镜像：当年是"加息到地球毁灭"，今天是"降息到宇宙尽头"。历 史不会重复，却爱开彩蛋。 （二）"数据打架"现场：同一组数字，三种剧本 1. 就业：2.2万新增就业 vs. 4.3%失业率 鸽派说"就业塌方"，鹰派说"劳动力市场只是退烧"，而交易员的解读最简洁：萨姆规则（失业率三个月 均值较前12个月低点上升0.5%以上）已亮红灯，衰退概率飙至62%。 2. 通胀：CPI 2.6% vs. 核心服务5.1% 鸽派盯的 ...

今日周三(9月17日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于9940一线下方，今日开盘于10128元/千克，截至发稿，白银期货暂 报9916元/千克，下跌1.67%，最高触及10146元/千克，最低下探9890元/千克，目前来看，白银期货盘内短线偏向看跌 走势。 【要闻速递】 美联储将于美东时间9月17日下午2点（北京时间9月18日凌晨2点）公布最新利率决定。 根据CME FedWatch工具显示，降息25个基点的概率为96%，该工具还指出，大幅降息50个基点的概率仅有4%。 经济学家还将密切关注美联储是否会就2025年后续两次会议（10月与12月）的降息路径提供前瞻指引。 美联储肩负所谓"双重使命"，即保持低通胀的同时实现充分就业。 但这两个目标可能存在冲突：通胀上升需要美联储通过加息来抑制，而加息会提高企业和消费者的借贷成本从而压制 支出；反之，应对高失业率的最有效手段是降息，因为降低利率可减少企业扩张成本并促进招聘。 沪银周二在高点10178附近走出了下跌空间，最低在10031，虽然空间不大，但没有之前那么强势继续走高。目前收盘 在10070附近，看今天美联储午夜公布的利率决议的变化，今天白银预计能走出一波下跌空 ...

[ 近期公布的数据显示，8月美国消费者物价指数比上月上涨0.4%，高于7月0.2%的涨幅，通胀黏性仍 存。但与此同时，每周申请失业救济人数增至26.3万人，升至近四年来最高水平。市场普遍预计，疲软 的劳动力市场数据会压过通胀黏性的影响，令美联储届时将开启新一轮降息，降息25个基点，将联邦基 金利率调整至4.00%~4.25%的区间。当地时间9月14日，美国总统特朗普甚至表示，他预计美联储将宣 布"大幅降息"。 ] 本周，全球市场将再迎超级央行周。除美联储外，日本央行、加拿大央行和英国央行也将公布利率决 议。 9月或降息25个基点，年内共降息三次 美联储将于当地时间9月16~17日召开货币政策会议。近期公布的数据显示，8月美国消费者物价指数比 上月上涨0.4%，高于7月0.2%的涨幅，通胀黏性仍存。但与此同时，每周申请失业救济人数增至26.3万 人，升至近四年来最高水平。市场普遍预计，疲软的劳动力市场数据会压过通胀黏性的影响，令美联储 届时将开启新一轮降息，降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率调整至4.00%~4.25%的区间。当地时间9月14 日，美国总统特朗普甚至表示，他预计美联储将宣布"大幅降息"。 根据芝加哥 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is preparing for a potentially chaotic meeting, with uncertainty surrounding the number of voting officials due to ongoing court rulings and Senate votes [1][2] - The Fed is expected to vote on interest rate cuts, with futures markets pricing in three cuts for the year, despite inflation remaining above the 2% target [3][4] - The outcome of the meeting may depend on the approval of CEA Chair Steven Myron and the potential for dissenting opinions regarding the extent of rate cuts [5][10] Group 2 - Market reactions to the Fed's decisions are anticipated to be influenced by the guidance provided during the meeting and the overall sentiment regarding inflation concerns [7][8] - There is speculation about how individual votes may impact the average outlook of the Fed, with particular attention to any extreme forecasts that could shift market expectations [9][10]

21世纪经济报道记者王峰 北京报道 国家统计局9月15日发布数据显示，8月份，全国城镇调查失业率为 5.3%，比上月上升0.1个百分点，与上年同月持平。 国家统计局新闻发言人、总经济师、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖同日介绍，受毕业季因素影响，8月份 全国城镇调查失业率比上个月略有上升，但与上年同期持平，就业"稳"没有改变。 受季节性因素影响最大的是高校毕业生群体，7月份，全国城镇不包含在校生的16—24岁劳动力失业率为 17.8%，比上月上升3.3个百分点，比上年同月上升0.7个百分点。按照惯例，8月份全国城镇不包含在校生 的16—24岁劳动力失业率将在几天后公布。 就业形势总体稳定 付凌晖在9月15日国新办新闻发布会上说，从8月份情况来看，就业形势总体稳定，主要表现在以下几个方 面： 一是城镇调查失业率总体稳定。从失业率变化规律来看，每年进入7、8月份毕业季，全国城镇调查失业率 均会出现季节性上升。随着毕业生逐步找到工作，失业率会逐步下降。从今年情况来看，8月份全国城镇调 查失业率为5.3%，比上月上升0.1个百分点，主要是受学校应届毕业生集中离校进入劳动力市场的影响。与 上年相比，8月份全国城镇调查失业率 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the **U.S. economy**, focusing on **employment**, **inflation**, and the **AI industry**. [1][2][5][16][17] Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Employment Market Challenges**: - The average monthly job creation has dropped from **147,000** to **71,000**, indicating a significant slowdown in the job market. Consumer confidence in reemployment opportunities has reached its lowest since **2013**, with a **39.1%** probability of rising unemployment in the next year. [1][2][4][11] 2. **Inflation Trends**: - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth has rebounded to **2.9%**, with food prices rising significantly. Core inflation is stable at **3.1%**, but the month-on-month growth is close to **0.4%**, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. [1][2][3][11] 3. **Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy**: - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is crucial, as the Fed may prioritize employment issues over inflation control, potentially leading to interest rate cuts. Market expectations are leaning towards **two to three rate cuts** this year. [4][10][13] 4. **Market Reactions**: - Despite unfavorable inflation data, the stock market has reached new highs, driven by expectations of rate cuts and declining bond yields. This reflects a market sentiment that prioritizes employment concerns over inflation. [6][7][8] 5. **Gold Prices and Inflation Risks**: - Gold prices have recently surged, indicating market concerns over potential inflation risks associated with rate cuts. Investors are using gold as a hedge against stagflation risks. [9][14] 6. **Oracle's Performance and AI Orders**: - Oracle's recent quarterly performance was below expectations, but future unfulfilled orders have surged to **$450 billion**, primarily driven by AI-related cloud business. This has led to a **30%** increase in Oracle's stock price. [16][17] 7. **AI Industry Growth**: - The AI sector is experiencing significant capital expenditure growth, with U.S. computer equipment imports rising by **72%** year-on-year, driven by demand for AI computing power and data center construction. [17][18] 8. **Economic Cycle Risks**: - While the AI industry is booming, there are concerns about potential over-investment and the impact of economic cycles. A reversal in market sentiment could lead to rapid declines in capital efficiency and expectations. [18] Other Important Insights - The records highlight a notable **downward revision** of non-farm payroll data by **911,000**, the largest since the **2009 financial crisis**. [2] - The **Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index** has also shown a decline, reflecting growing pessimism among consumers regarding the job market. [2] - The potential for a **50 basis point rate cut** is discussed, influenced by political factors and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. [12][15]