Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on non-ferrous metals from the Commodity Research Institute, dated July 23, 2025 [2] - It covers various non-ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, casting aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate - It provides market reviews, important information, trading strategies, and price and related data for each metal Group 2: Market Reviews Copper - The Shanghai Copper 2509 contract closed at 79,590 yuan/ton, down 0.08%, with the Shanghai Copper Index adding 73 lots to 512,000 lots [2] - In the spot market, copper prices in the East China market were above 79,500 yuan/ton, suppressing downstream purchasing sentiment. In the South China market, inventory decreased but demand was low. In the North China market, demand expectations were not optimistic [2] Alumina - The Alumina 2509 contract fell 97 yuan to 3,355 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 19,393 lots to 388,300 lots [9] - Spot prices in various regions increased, with the Aladdin Alumina North Spot Composite up 40 yuan to 3,230 yuan [9] Electrolytic Aluminum - The Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract fell 75 yuan/ton to 20,815 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 3,190 lots to 691,200 lots [17] - Spot prices in different regions decreased, and coal prices increased [17] Casting Aluminum Alloy - The Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract fell 60 yuan to 20,155 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 520 lots to 11,008 lots [26] - Spot prices in various regions remained flat [26] Zinc - The Shanghai Zinc 2509 rose 0.5% to 22,975 yuan/ton, with the Shanghai Zinc Index adding 4,437 lots to 241,600 lots [33] - In the spot market, trading was light and the spot premium was weak [33] Lead - The Shanghai Lead 2509 fell 0.44% to 16,850 yuan/ton, with the Shanghai Lead Index adding 601 lots to 102,100 lots [40] - In the spot market, the price of regenerated refined lead was stable, and the willingness of holders to sell and downstream enterprises to buy was low [40] Nickel - The main contract of Shanghai Nickel, NI2509, fell 70 to 123,370 yuan/ton, with the index positions decreasing by 2,860 lots [46] - The premiums of Jinchuan Nickel, Russian Nickel, and Electrowon Nickel changed slightly [46] Stainless Steel - The main contract of stainless steel, SS2509, rose 10 to 12,900 yuan/ton, with the index positions increasing by 7,690 lots [53] - Spot prices of cold-rolled and hot-rolled stainless steel were reported [53] Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon futures rose 0.58% to 9,525 yuan/ton after a sharp rise and fall [60] - Spot prices of industrial silicon increased significantly [61] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon futures rose 5.5% to 50,080 yuan/ton after a sharp correction [66] - Spot prices of various types of polysilicon increased [66] Lithium Carbonate - The main contract of lithium carbonate, 2509, fell 2,940 to 69,380 yuan/ton, with the index positions decreasing by 27,082 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increasing by 665 to 10,754 tons [69] - Spot prices of electric carbon and industrial carbon increased [71] Group 3: Important Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce a stable growth plan for ten key industries including non-ferrous metals, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [3][4][10][22][67] - In the second quarter of 2025, copper production increased, and several mining companies' copper production also grew [3][4] - Kazakhstan plans to double its copper production by 2030 [4] - Canada's Solaris Resources hopes its Warintza project will start production in 2030 [4] - Germany announced an investment plan of over 630 billion euros to boost the economy [4] - The 232 tariff on copper will take effect on August 1, with a 50% tariff rate [7] - Some trade-related agreements and negotiations are in progress, such as the US-Philippines trade agreement and the US-Thailand trade negotiation [19][22][47] Group 4: Trading Strategies Copper - Unilateral: Short-term bullish, copper prices are expected to be strong [12] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [12] - Options: Wait and see [12] Alumina - Unilateral: Short-term wide-range volatile [15] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [15] - Options: Wait and see [15] Electrolytic Aluminum - Unilateral: Short-term high-level volatile [24] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [24] - Options: Wait and see [24] Casting Aluminum Alloy - Unilateral: Volatile at a high level following aluminum prices [30] - Arbitrage: Consider cash-and-carry arbitrage when the cash-futures spread is above 300 - 400 yuan [31] - Options: Wait and see [31] Zinc - Unilateral: Short-term bullish, short-term long positions can be considered [39] Lead - Unilateral: At a relatively low price, long positions can be lightly tried under the cost support of secondary lead [43] - Arbitrage: Sell put options [44] - Options: Wait and see [44] Nickel - Unilateral: Short-term follow the macro atmosphere [49] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [50] - Options: Sell deep out-of-the-money put options [51] Stainless Steel - Unilateral: Volatile and bullish [57] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [58] Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Close long positions [63] - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage for the 11th and 12th contracts, and positive arbitrage for the 11th and 10th contracts [65] - Options: Buy protective put options [63] Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short-term bullish, pay attention to the number of warehouse receipts [68] - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage for far-month contracts [68] - Options: None [68] Lithium Carbonate - Unilateral: Short-term follow the trend [74] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [75] - Options: Sell deep out-of-the-money put options [76] Group 5: Price and Related Data - The report provides daily data tables for each metal, including spot prices, futures prices, spreads, ratios, import and export profits, and inventory data [78][79][80][81][82][83][84][85][86][87] - It also includes various charts showing the trends of prices, spreads, and inventories over time [90][92][97][99][103][111][113][116][121][127][129][134][139][142][145][152][154][159][165][172][174][181][183][189][191]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC: The supply - demand situation has weakened, with continuous inventory accumulation and declining downstream product start - up rates. New production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and domestic demand is affected by the real estate market. However, due to the influence of eliminating backward production capacity and short - term strong macro - policy and sentiment, it is expected to be oscillatingly strong before policy implementation. There is a risk of price decline if policy support is weak or sentiment cools down [8][10]. - Caustic soda: The futures price has strengthened due to the elimination of backward production capacity. Fundamentally, the alumina industry is stable, but the caustic soda inventory has increased, non - aluminum demand is weak, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. Before policy implementation, it is expected to be oscillatingly strong, and there is a risk of price decline if policy support is weak or sentiment cools down [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Related Data 3.1.1 PVC - related Data - Futures prices: V2605 decreased by 97 yuan to 5466 yuan, a decline of 1.74%; V2509 decreased by 109 yuan to 5151 yuan, a decline of 2.07%; V2601 decreased by 105 yuan to 5269 yuan, a decline of 1.95% [4]. - Main contract positions: 865,000 lots, unchanged from the previous day, a decline of 0.02% [4]. - Warehouse receipts: 55,000 lots, unchanged [4]. - Basis and spread: V 9 - 1 spread decreased by 4 yuan to - 118 yuan, a change of 3.51%; V1 - 5 spread decreased by 8 yuan to - 197 yuan, a change of 4.23% [4]. - Spot prices: East China SG - 5 decreased by 40 yuan to 4960 yuan, a decline of 0.80%; South China SG - 5 increased by 10 yuan to 5010 yuan, an increase of 0.20% [4]. - Spot spreads: The South China - East China SG5 spread increased by 50 yuan to 50 yuan; the East China - North China SG5 spread decreased by 40 yuan to 240 yuan [4]. - Cost and profit: Wuhai calcium carbide remained at 2250 yuan; Shandong calcium carbide decreased by 50 yuan to 2730 yuan; Shandong's externally - purchased calcium carbide method profit increased by 88 yuan to - 293 yuan [4]. 3.1.2 Caustic Soda - related Data - Futures prices: SH508 decreased by 4 yuan to 2587 yuan, a decline of 0.15%; SH509 decreased by 14 yuan to 2644 yuan, a decline of 0.53%; SH601 decreased by 44 yuan to 2655 yuan, a decline of 1.63% [4]. - Main contract positions: 115,600 lots, a decrease of 14,100 lots from the previous day, a decline of 10.91% [4]. - Warehouse receipts: 0 lots, unchanged [4]. - Basis and spread: SH 8 - 9 spread increased by 10 yuan to - 57 yuan, a change of - 14.93%; SH9 - 1 spread increased by 30 yuan to - 11 yuan, a change of - 73.17% [4]. - Spot prices: Shandong 32% decreased by 10 yuan to 810 yuan, a decline of 1.22%; Xinjiang flake caustic soda increased by 150 yuan to 3100 yuan, an increase of 5.08% [4]. - Spot spreads: The Shandong 50% - 32% spread increased by 31 yuan to 159 yuan, an increase of 24.51%; the Guangdong flake caustic soda - Guangdong 50% spread increased by 3170 yuan to 3750 yuan, an increase of 546.55% [4]. - Cost and profit: Shandong raw salt price remained at 210 yuan; Shandong caustic soda profit decreased by 31 yuan to 643 yuan; 50% caustic soda export profit decreased by 2 yuan to - 61 yuan [4]. 3.2 Second Part: Market Analysis 3.2.1 Market Review - PVC: Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4960 - 5080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton; Guangzhou SG - 5 spot price was 5010 - 5080 yuan/ton, a change of + 10/ - 30 yuan/ton [5]. - Caustic soda: In Shandong, the mainstream transaction price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda decreased by 15 yuan/ton on average; the mainstream transaction price of 50% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda remained stable [6]. 3.2.2 Related News On July 24, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine from Shandong Xinf Fa increased by 100 yuan, with an ex - factory price of - 400 yuan [7]. 3.2.3 Logic Analysis - PVC: The supply - demand situation has weakened, with inventory accumulation and low downstream start - up rates. New production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and domestic demand is affected by real estate. The futures price has risen due to the elimination of backward production capacity. Before policy implementation, it is expected to be oscillatingly strong, and there is a risk of price decline if policy support is weak or sentiment cools down [8]. - Caustic soda: The futures price has strengthened due to the elimination of backward production capacity. The alumina industry is stable, but the caustic soda inventory has increased, non - aluminum demand is weak, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. There is a need to focus on policy implementation [9]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: For both caustic soda and PVC, before policy implementation, they are expected to be oscillatingly strong. There is a risk of price decline if policy support is weak or sentiment cools down [10]. - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [11]. - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [11]. 3.3 Third Part: Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends, basis trends, spreads, positions, warehouse receipts, spot prices, raw material prices, and profit trends of PVC and caustic soda futures contracts, with data sources including Galaxy Futures, WIND, Zhuochuang, and Longzhong [14][16][19][20][24][25][27][29][30][31][33][34][36][40][41][42][43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are supported by factors such as the decline in the US July Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, the increase in the probability of a Fed rate cut in September, trade negotiation deadlocks, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks [3]. - Copper may be slightly stronger in the short - term, but there are potential risks in the medium - term, as the current rise lacks significant support from increased positions and supply - side optimization [14]. - Aluminum is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short - term due to positive macro factors and low inventory, while alumina is likely to be strong due to a significant drop in warehouse receipts and macro policies [29][30]. - Zinc is in a high - level range, with supply gradually shifting from tight to surplus and demand remaining weak during the traditional off - season, but the Yajiang Dam project may bring some demand growth [58]. - Nickel's recent strong performance is mainly driven by macro sentiment, with the fundamental situation remaining weak, including oversupply in stainless steel and weak downstream demand for nickel salts [73]. - Tin prices are under upward pressure in the short - term as the expected inflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand persist [88]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward state, with active spot market transactions and improved cost support [101]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices were affected by coal - related cost increases and macro sentiment, and the focus is on polysilicon warehouse receipts in the future [112]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: The decline in the US July Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index to - 20 and the 57% probability of a Fed rate cut in September weaken the US dollar and boost gold. The approaching deadline of the Trump administration's tariff policy and trade negotiation deadlocks increase risk - aversion demand. Global central bank gold purchases and ETF inflows provide long - term support, and geopolitical risks strengthen gold's safe - haven status [3]. - **Silver**: No specific daily view is provided, but multiple charts show price trends, spreads, and inventory data [4][6][9]. 3.2 Copper - **Price and Trend**: The current price of Shanghai copper futures shows a slight decline, while LME copper has a small increase. In the short - term, copper may be slightly stronger, but there are potential medium - term risks [14]. - **Fundamentals**: The rise in the entire non - ferrous sector is likely due to demand - side factors rather than the US dollar index, gold, or supply - side issues. The Yajiang Hydropower Station project may have a significant impact on copper demand [14]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Macro factors such as strong US consumer confidence and the upcoming ten - key - industry stability - growth plan boost sentiment. Low inventory supports prices, and the short - term trend is expected to be a high - level range [29]. - **Alumina**: The current operating capacity is high and in surplus, but the spot market is tight. Warehouse receipts have dropped significantly, increasing the risk of a soft squeeze on funds. Short - term sentiment is strong [30]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: High scrap aluminum prices support costs, but demand is in the off - season and weak, suppressing the upside [30]. 3.4 Zinc - **Price and Trend**: Zinc is in a high - level range, with the Shanghai zinc contract showing small fluctuations and the LME zinc price rising slightly [59]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, while demand is weak during the traditional off - season. The Yajiang Dam project may bring some demand growth [58]. 3.5 Nickel - **Price and Trend**: The recent strength of Shanghai nickel is mainly driven by macro sentiment, with the fundamental situation remaining weak [73]. - **Fundamentals**: Nickel ore inventory is rising due to seasonal arrivals from the Philippines, and supply is expected to be loose while demand narrows. Nickel iron prices are stabilizing, and stainless steel demand is weak, with nickel salts maintaining a production - based - on - sales model [73]. 3.6 Tin - **Price and Trend**: Tin prices have risen due to the "anti - involution" impact on the non - ferrous sector, but the short - term upward pressure is greater than the support [88]. - **Fundamentals**: With the expected inflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand, the situation remains unchanged [88]. 3.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Trend**: The futures price shows some fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 69,380 yuan/ton, down 3,500 yuan from the previous day [102]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot market is active, and cost support is strengthened. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly upward [101]. 3.8 Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: Coal - related cost increases and macro sentiment have led to price increases. Attention should be paid to polysilicon warehouse receipts in the future [112]. - **Polysilicon**: No specific view is provided, but price data and trends are presented [121].

Report Overview - **Report Title**: Shanghai Lead Industry Daily Report 2025-07-23 [2] - **Report Date**: July 23, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to introduce a stable growth work plan for ten key industries including steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity. On the supply side, the operating rate and output of primary lead smelters have declined due to the drop in lead prices. Although the current operating rate of primary lead is relatively strong compared to secondary lead and the by - product revenue is stable, the supply of secondary lead is tight because of the shortage of scrap battery raw materials, and the resumption of production is slow. If the tight supply of scrap batteries is not alleviated, the output of secondary lead will be difficult to increase significantly, which will continue to restrict the overall lead supply increment. On the demand side, although the lead - acid battery industry is approaching the traditional peak consumption season, the actual situation is that the downstream is still waiting and watching, and the seasonal peak effect has not yet appeared. The overseas inventory of lead is rising, and the domestic inventory is rising slightly, with the warehouse receipts increasing and the overall demand slowing down. The overall impact from the perspective of lead concentrate processing is limited. The Shanghai lead price continues to fluctuate slightly, and the operation suggestion is to buy on dips [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,015 dollars/ton, up 3.5 dollars [3]. - **Spreads and Positions**: The spread between the 08 - 09 month contracts of Shanghai lead is - 30 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest is 101,465 lots, up 2,568 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 2,632 lots, down 1,396 lots [3]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 62,335 tons, up 7,186 tons; the LME lead inventory is 264,925 tons, down 3,475 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,725 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,910 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [3]. - **Basis and Premiums**: The basis of the lead main contract is - 125 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 25.97 dollars/ton, down 1.77 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Utilization**: The average operating rate of primary lead is 70.84%, down 7.03 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.32 tons, down 0.29 tons. The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead is 34.15%, down 0.8 percentage points; the monthly output of secondary lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons [3]. - **Prices and Imports**: The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,096 yuan, down 124 yuan; the lead ore import volume is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [3]. 3.4产业情况 - **Imports and Exports**: The monthly import volume of refined lead is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the monthly export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons [3]. - **Other Indicators**: The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 540 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the average price of the scrap battery market is 10,135.71 yuan/ton, down 26.79 yuan [3]. 3.5下游情况 - **Consumption - related Output**: The monthly export volume of batteries is 41,450,000, down 425,000; the monthly automobile output is 2.8086 million, up 0.1666 million; the monthly new energy vehicle output is 1.647 million, up 0.073 million [3]. - **Industry Index**: The Shenwan industry index of the tertiary industry of batteries and other electrical appliances is 1,777.24 points, up 12.6 points [3]. 3.6行业消息 - **Tariffs**: The US Treasury Secretary said August 1st is a "relatively hard deadline" for all countries, and the EU trade negotiation is separate from the Russia - Ukraine sanctions negotiation. Japan's negotiation is progressing smoothly. Canada is still considering the electricity export tax. South Korea is considering making painful concessions to avoid being fully taxed by the US. Trump reached a trade agreement with the Philippines, with a 19% tariff on the Philippines, and the Philippines will open its market to the US and implement zero - tariff [3]. - **White House vs. Fed**: The US Treasury Secretary believes the Fed should cut interest rates and that there is no sign for Powell to resign, but if he wants to leave early, he can do so [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is affected by policies to eliminate backward production capacity. The market sentiment is positive, and commodity prices are rising, driving up the prices of propylene and polyolefins [3]. - Propylene is expected to shift from an oversupply to a tight - balance situation after capacity reduction, but supply pressure will increase as refinery operations recover, while downstream demand is also gradually recovering [3]. - For polyolefins, policies have a certain boosting effect on the market. Although production maintenance eases some supply - demand pressure, upstream and mid - stream inventories are rising. Cost - side support is weak, and downstream demand remains sluggish, with an expected increase in supply and inventory in the future [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - It includes the trend of the propylene futures main contract, the basis between East China and the main contract, the basis between North China and the main contract, and the basis between Northwest China and the main contract, as well as the market prices in East China and Shandong [10][11]. 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Covers propylene processing fees, capacity utilization rates, production margins from different production methods (PDH, MTO, naphtha cracking), and the capacity utilization rate of methanol - to - olefins and the operating rate of crude oil refineries [15][19][26]. 3. Propylene Import and Export Profits - Involves price differences between South Korea, Japan, Southeast Asia and China, and propylene import profits [31][35]. 4. Propylene Downstream Profits and Operating Rates - Includes the production profits and operating rates of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][40][43]. 5. Propylene Inventory - Consists of propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [61]. 6. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Comprises the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures main contracts, and the basis between East China LL and the main contract, and between East China PP and the main contract [65][69]. 7. Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - Covers the production profits of LL (crude - oil - based) and PP (crude - oil - based and PDH - based), PE and PP operating rates, weekly production, and maintenance losses [74][80][82]. 8. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Differences - Includes price differences between HD injection molding, HD blow molding, HD film, LD in East China and LL, and price differences between PP low - melt copolymer, PP homopolymer injection molding and PP drawing in East China [87][94][95]. 9. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - Involves LL and PP import and export profits, and price differences between different regions and China [101][113]. 10. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Profits - Includes the operating rates and production profits of PE downstream (agricultural film, packaging film, winding film) and PP downstream (plastic weaving, BOPP film, injection molding) [124][125][131]. 11. Polyolefin Inventory - Consists of inventory in oil - based and coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports for both PE and PP [133][138][146]. Strategies - Unilateral: Bullish on propylene in the short term [4]. - Inter - period: Reverse spread for PL01 - 05 [4]. - Inter - commodity: Long PL2601 and short PP2509 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoint - In the short term, policy expectations outweigh the fundamentals for urea. Although the urea futures (UR) fluctuated upwards and closed at 1817 on the previous trading day, and the upcoming industrial growth - stabilization plan may boost the market, the supply pressure of urea remains high with a daily output close to 200,000 tons and an enterprise inventory of about 750,000 tons. While the top - dressing demand in July supports the price, the urea price may face significant downward pressure if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand does not pick up [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Futures Prices**: On July 22, UR01 closed at 1809 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan or 1.63% from July 21), UR05 at 1815 yuan/ton (up 28 yuan or 1.57%), UR09 at 1817 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan or 0.28%), and the Shandong price at 1840 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.55%) [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - grained)**: On July 22, the prices in Shanxi, Hebei, and Northeast remained unchanged at 1720, 1800, and 1760 yuan/ton respectively. The price in Henan was 1850 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.54%), and the price in Jiangsu was 1840 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: The Shandong spot - UR basis was 25 yuan/ton on July 22, down 18 yuan from July 21, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 6 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2950 and 2550 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Shandong was 5007 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan or 0.34%), and in Jiangsu it remained unchanged at 5200 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - Not mentioned in the report Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1820 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1828 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1782 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1817 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1806 yuan/ton, and the position was 191,764 lots [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of the "anti-involution" policy in various industries, aiming to reduce excess capacity and stimulate domestic demand, which is expected to improve corporate profits and commodity prices [1][2] - The current economic recovery in China is supported by policy measures such as "anti-involution," expansion of domestic demand, and urban renewal, which are being actively implemented across key industries [1][2] - The article highlights that the Producer Price Index (PPI) has been declining for 33 consecutive months, indicating a need for structural adjustments in the industrial sector to reverse this trend [1] Group 2 - The previous round of supply-side capacity reduction occurred around 2016, primarily affecting upstream industrial sectors, while the current "anti-involution" initiative has a broader scope, impacting traditional consumer goods, machinery, and emerging industries [2] - The challenge lies in balancing long-term goals with short-term tasks in the "anti-involution" process, as rapid capacity reduction could harm short-term economic growth while failing to address the underlying issues could lead to more "zombie" companies [2][3] - To mitigate the impact of capacity reduction on employment, the article suggests promoting urban renewal and expanding the service sector to create more job opportunities [3] Group 3 - The article discusses the need for strict control over new capacity while phasing out outdated capacity, as previous local government practices of indiscriminately attracting investment led to overcapacity [4] - Establishing a unified national market is crucial to reduce local government intervention in manufacturing investments, which can help avoid redundant investments and local protectionism [4] - The article stresses the importance of creating a conducive environment for market mergers and acquisitions, as well as improving bankruptcy systems to facilitate the exit of underperforming enterprises [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - On July 22, the silicon ferroalloy 2509 contract closed at 5874, up 3.74%. The spot price of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia was reported at 5380. With strong macro - expectations due to the upcoming ten key industries' stable growth work plans, low - level operation of production, decreased cost of semi - coke in Ningxia, weak overall steel demand expectation, and negative production profit, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it is expected to fluctuate with a strong bias [2]. - On July 22, the manganese silicon 2509 contract closed at 6012, up 1.76%. The spot price of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was reported at 5700, up 20 yuan/ton. Affected by the plan to adjust the structure, optimize supply and eliminate backward production capacity in key industries, coal prices rose significantly. With the factory's operating rate rising for 7 consecutive weeks at a low level, neutral - to - high inventory, a decrease of 4.20 million tons in the port inventory of imported manganese ore at the raw material end, high downstream hot metal production, and negative spot profit, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it is expected to fluctuate with a strong bias [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM main contract closing price: 6012 yuan/ton, up 98 yuan; SF main contract closing price: 5874 yuan/ton, up 206 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract open interest: 592,505 lots, up 962 lots; SF futures contract open interest: 394,037 lots, up 1039 lots [2]. - Net position of the top 20 in manganese silicon: - 71,449 lots, down 984 lots; net position of the top 20 in silicon ferroalloy: - 44,311 lots, up 1578 lots [2]. - SM 1 - 9 month contract spread: 72 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; SF 1 - 9 month contract spread: 78 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - SM warehouse receipts: 78,495 sheets, down 259 sheets; SF warehouse receipts: 22,150 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese silicon FeMn68Si18: 5680 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Inner Mongolia silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B: 5420 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - Guizhou manganese silicon FeMn68Si18: 5670 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Qinghai silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B: 5280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Yunnan manganese silicon FeMn68Si18: 5650 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B: 5380 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2]. - Manganese silicon index average: 5610 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; SF main contract basis: - 494 yuan/ton, down 126 yuan [2]. - SM main contract basis: - 332 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 lumps at Tianjin Port: 35 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; silica (98% in Northwest China): 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke: 900 yuan/ton, unchanged; semi - coke (medium - sized in Shenmu): 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory: 428.50 million tons, down 4.20 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese silicon enterprise operating rate: 40.53%, down 0.02%; silicon ferroalloy enterprise operating rate: 32.45%, up 1.25% [2]. - Manganese silicon supply: 182,840 tons, up 560 tons; silicon ferroalloy supply: 100,000 tons, up 1300 tons [2]. - Manganese silicon factory inventory: 216,300 tons, down 4500 tons; silicon ferroalloy factory inventory: 6.35 million tons, down 0.67 million tons [2]. - Manganese silicon inventory days in national steel mills: 14.24 days, down 1.25 days; silicon ferroalloy inventory days in national steel mills: 14.25 days, down 1.13 days [2]. - Manganese silicon demand of five major steel types: 123,381 tons, down 1547 tons; silicon ferroalloy demand of five major steel types: 20,013.70 tons, down 153.60 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills: 83.48%, up 0.35%; blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 90.92%, up 1.05% [2]. - Crude steel output: 83.184 million tons, down 3.361 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 21, coke enterprises initiated the second price increase, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on July 22 [2]. - From July 19 - 20, steel enterprises at the Tenth Shaanxi - Shanxi - Sichuan - Gansu Steel Enterprises Summit Forum reached a consensus on "strengthening self - discipline in production control" [2]. - China's July LPR remained unchanged for the second consecutive month, with the 1 - year variety at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year variety at 3.5%. Market institutions generally expect a further decline in the second half of the year [2]. - Premier Li Qiang signed the "Housing Rental Regulations", which will take effect on September 15, aiming to increase rental housing supply and cultivate professional housing rental enterprises [2].

市场情绪向好，盘面大幅走高 市场分析 尿素日报 | 2025-07-22 价格与基差：2025-07-21，尿素主力收盘1812元/吨（+67）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1840 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1830元/吨（+20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1840元/吨（+30）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差： 18元/吨（-47）；河南基差：28元/吨（-37）；江苏基差：28元/吨（-37）；尿素生产利润300元/吨（+20），出口利润 1115元/吨（+172）。 供应端：截至2025-07-21，企业产能利用率85.08%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为89.55 万吨（-7.22），港口样本 库存量为54.10 万吨（+5.20）。 需求端：截至2025-07-21，复合肥产能利用率32.55%（+2.72%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为64.24%（+1.68%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.06日（+0.12）。 工信部稳增长工作方案将推动重点行业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能。尿素市场情绪向好，商品价格持续 上涨。国内尿素装置投产时间超20年装置产能占比为20%，而投产时间超30年 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The PVC market has seen a significant rise in the futures market due to the boost in macro - sentiment, but its fundamentals remain weak with high supply pressure, weak domestic demand, and increasing inventory. The policy's impact on the PVC capacity structure is expected to be limited [3]. - The caustic soda futures price has risen significantly due to the assessment of old petrochemical and chemical industry equipment and the weakening of liquid chlorine prices. However, the inventory pressure is expected to increase, and the policy's impact on the capacity structure may be limited [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5,118 yuan/ton (+181), the East China basis is - 118 yuan/ton (-31), and the South China basis is - 118 yuan/ton (-1) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5,000 yuan/ton (+150), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5,000 yuan/ton (+180) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 535 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,830 yuan/ton (+5), the calcium carbide profit is 112 yuan/ton (+5), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 315 yuan/ton (+130), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 595 yuan/ton (+26), and the PVC export profit is - 4.8 dollars/ton (+0.4) [1]. - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory PVC inventory is 36.8 tons (-1.4), the social PVC inventory is 41.1 tons (+1.8), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 77.52% (+0.59%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 68.31% (-1.92%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 74.97% (-0.10%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 69.6 tons (+0.6) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,569 yuan/ton (+100), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 25 yuan/ton (-131) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 830 yuan/ton (-10), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,370 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,603 yuan/ton (-31), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 579.5 yuan/ton (-111.3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 507.53 yuan/ton (+81.75), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1,418.33 yuan/ton (+80.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 38.39 tons (+0.96), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.40 tons (+0.04), and the caustic soda operation rate is 82.60% (+2.20%) [2]. - Caustic soda downstream operation: The alumina operation rate is 83.61% (+0.33%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 58.89% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 84.55% (+6.75%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The release of the ten - key industry stable growth work plan has boosted the macro - sentiment, leading to a significant rise in the PVC futures market. However, the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The supply pressure is high, domestic demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. The policy's impact on the capacity structure is expected to be limited [3]. Caustic Soda - The assessment of old petrochemical and chemical industry equipment and the weakening of liquid chlorine prices have boosted the caustic soda futures price. The supply is increasing, the demand from the main downstream is rising, but the non - aluminum demand is weak. The inventory pressure is expected to increase, and the policy's impact on the capacity structure may be limited [3]. Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Neutral; in the short term, PVC may fluctuate strongly due to the boost in macro - sentiment. - Inter - delivery spread: Go for reverse arbitrage when the V09 - 01 spread is high [4]. Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Neutral; the cost support of caustic soda is strengthening due to the further weakening of liquid chlorine. The short - term futures market is trading on the expectation of eliminating backward production capacity, but the actual impact on the capacity structure may be limited [5].