美联储施密德：经济的韧性意味着美联储有时间观察局势发展，再决定是否降息。 ...

证券时报记者韩忠楠 6月24日，2025夏季达沃斯论坛拉开帷幕。 在论坛首日超50场分论坛活动中，围绕着世界经济秩序、贸易格局走势、AI技术发展、气候变化、能 源应用等方面的讨论不绝于耳，与会嘉宾在思想交锋的过程中，不约而同地将"不确定性"作为上述话题 讨论的核心背景。 "从实际经济指标来看，前几个季度的出口、工业生产等数据表现良好，反映出经济韧性犹存，这在一 定程度上得益于政府出台的提振消费等政策措施。"黄益平认为，虽然房地产行业在进行调整，外部世 界也充满不确定性，但中国总体的经济活动仍然表现坚毅。 世界经济论坛总裁博尔格·布伦德也表达对中国经济的看好。他表示，在世界经济形势严峻复杂背景 下，中国经济展现出强劲韧性。无论从中期看还是长远看，他都对中国经济抱乐观态度。 谈及如何应对全球经济面临的不确定性时，黄益平认为，短期内需要更加积极的财政政策；长期来看， 财政的可持续性需要充分考虑。 今年1月初，世界经济论坛发布的《首席经济学家展望报告》显示，全球经济将在2025年面临重大挑 战，56%的受访首席经济学家预计经济形势会走弱，仅17%的受访者认为经济形势会改善。 而在此次2025夏季达沃斯论坛首席经济学家 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 6 月 23 日星期一 交易提示 | | | | 显示，今年前五个月，全国一般公共预算支出达 112953 亿元，同比增长 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 中证 500 | 上行 | 4.2%。全国一般公共预算收入 96623 亿元，同比下降 0.3%，降幅略有收 | | | | | 窄。据国家有关部门消息，消费品以旧换新加力扩围政策没有变化，补贴 | | | | | 资金使用进度符合预期，后续还将有 1380 亿元中央资金在三、四季度分 | | | | | 批有序下达。中国人民银行与香港金管局启动跨境支付通，将于 6 月 22 | | | 中证 1000 | 上行 | 日上线运行。支持用户通过参与机构的手机银行、网上银行等渠道，线上 | | | | | 发起内地与香港间人民币和港币的跨境汇款；支持经常项目项下一定金额 | | | | | 内的便利化汇款实时到账。国家发改委组织集中向民间资本新推介项目 | | | | | 3200 余个，聚焦能源、新型基础设施、城市基础设施、仓储物流、制造 | | ...

Group 1 - The Israeli stock market showed resilience amid geopolitical tensions, with the TA-125 index opening up 1% and reaching a historical high, reflecting investor confidence in the country's economic fundamentals [1] - The strong performance of the TA-35 index, which opened with a gain of 0.9%, further confirms the positive sentiment among investors regarding Israel's ability to manage geopolitical risks [1] - In contrast, the Egyptian stock index experienced a significant decline of 1.5%, indicating investor concerns about regional stability and the potential chain reactions from U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities [1] Group 2 - Egypt's economy is highly dependent on energy supplies, particularly natural gas imports from Israel, making it sensitive to disruptions in energy supply chains [2] - The decision by Israel to close the Leviathan gas field directly impacts Egypt's energy supply expectations, leading to cautious investor sentiment regarding Egypt's economic outlook [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the economy is demonstrating resilience, partly due to the Fed's stance [1] Group 1 - The economy's performance is attributed to the Federal Reserve's policies and actions [1]

加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆：经济在贸易战中展现出"一定的韧性"。 ...

此外，拉加德重申先前的评论，强调"欧洲必须巩固三大基础支柱：地缘政治信誉、经济韧性、完善的 法律和制度。" 当美元霸权地位面临挑战，拉加德呼吁把握欧元的"全球时刻"！ 周二，拉加德在英国《金融时报》发表文章，呼吁决策者抓住时机，在特朗普政策破坏人们对美元的信 心之际，提高欧元的全球地位。 她表示： 历史告诉我们，政权看似持久——直到不再如此。全球货币主导地位的转移此前也曾发生。 这一变革时刻对欧洲来说是一个机遇：这是一个"全球欧元"时刻。 1、地缘政治信誉 首先，欧元的全球地位建立在欧洲的贸易角色之上。欧盟是世界最大的贸易体——它是72个 国家的头号贸易伙伴，这些国家代表着全球GDP的近40%。这一地位反映在欧元作为计价货 币的份额上，约为40%。 正如Valéry Giscard d'Estaing在1960年代提及的国际储备货币的"过度特权"，这种特权伴随着 责任。为避免海外欧元流动性短缺，欧洲央行向关键伙伴提供掉期和回购额度，以保障其货 币政策的顺利传导。 然而，真正的信心建立在硬事实之上。投资者寻求的是那些信守联盟承诺的地区。数据显 示，此类保证能够将一种货币在外汇储备中的份额提升多达30个百分点。欧 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government is considering expanding travel bans to include an additional 36 countries, primarily affecting several African nations, Caribbean countries, and some Asian and Pacific island nations [3] - Boeing 787 aircraft faced operational issues again, with an All Nippon Airways flight becoming immobilized on the taxiway after landing, leading to temporary runway closures [4] - China's economic resilience is highlighted by a 6.4% year-on-year increase in retail sales in May, a significant rebound from April's figures [5] Group 2 - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization, with policies aimed at promoting recovery starting to take effect, although market confidence still needs improvement [6] - The Chinese government is implementing a tax compliance warning as the deadline for individual income tax reconciliation approaches, emphasizing the importance of honest reporting [7] - The People's Bank of China plans to issue 30 billion yuan in offshore central bank bills in Hong Kong, maintaining the balance at the end of 2024 [9][10] Group 3 - The National Radio and Television Administration is regulating automatic renewal services for internet TV to enhance consumer experience and address common complaints [11] - Domestic fuel prices are expected to rise significantly due to increased international oil prices, with estimates suggesting an increase of around 300 yuan per ton [12] - Dalian and Hubei provinces will implement a tax refund policy for overseas travelers starting July 1, 2025, aimed at boosting local tourism [13] Group 4 - Xiaomi's automotive factory is achieving high levels of automation, producing two to three thousand vehicles monthly, with a total of 250,000 cars sold in the past 14 months [23] - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices close higher, with significant gains in large tech stocks, indicating a positive market sentiment [24] - Institutional investors showed a preference for certain stocks, with notable net purchases in Yuekang Pharmaceutical and Dongshan Precision [25][27]

Group 1 - In May, China's economy showed overall stability and improvement in some indicators, reflecting strong resilience and vitality [1] - The macroeconomic policy toolbox is well-stocked, allowing for dynamic adjustments to stabilize economic operations [2] - The decline in China's goods imports is influenced by multiple factors, including global trade uncertainties and reduced international economic growth [3] Group 2 - The real estate market in China is moving towards stabilization, supported by the implementation of various stabilizing policies [5] - The unemployment rate in urban areas was 5% in May, with a continuous decline in youth unemployment over the past three months, indicating a stable employment situation [6]

Market Overview - Recent market activity has been characterized by significant volatility, particularly in gold, which experienced a price swing of over $100 in one day. This was preceded by a sharp decline of over $30 during the afternoon session, likely triggered by profit-taking from institutional positions near previous highs [1] - The subsequent rise in gold prices was largely driven by geopolitical tensions, specifically an Israeli attack on Iran, which spurred safe-haven buying. This was reflected in a simultaneous 7% increase in oil prices, indicating a strong correlation between geopolitical events and market movements [1] Upcoming Economic Events - The upcoming week is expected to feature major economic announcements, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the OPEC monthly report, which are critical for market participants [3][4] - The OPEC monthly report will provide insights into member countries' oil production, inventory, and export dynamics, serving as a key indicator for traders assessing future supply-demand balances in the oil market [4] Key Economic Indicators - On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision will be closely monitored, as the central bank's stance on its ultra-loose monetary policy could significantly impact the yen and broader market sentiment [6] - The U.S. retail sales data, known as "the terror data," will be released on the same day, directly reflecting consumer spending strength, which is a crucial component of GDP. Stronger-than-expected results could bolster the dollar and suppress gold prices, while weaker results may heighten market concerns about economic prospects [7] Oil Market Dynamics - On Wednesday, the EIA will release its weekly oil inventory report, which will provide a clear picture of supply-demand dynamics in the U.S. energy market. A significant drop in inventory levels typically indicates rising demand or constrained supply, which is bullish for oil prices [8] - Current market focus is on Middle Eastern geopolitical developments, U.S. shale oil recovery, and the pace of global demand recovery, all of which could influence OPEC's outlook for oil prices in the second half of the year [5] Federal Reserve and Bank of England Decisions - Thursday will feature the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which is anticipated to be a major market event. The accompanying dot plot and economic projections will be critical for understanding the Fed's future policy direction [10] - The Bank of England will also announce its interest rate decision on the same day, with potential for significant volatility in the pound if unexpected policy shifts occur [12] Trading Considerations - Traders are advised to be cautious during the upcoming week due to the anticipated volatility from major economic data releases. Proper position sizing and risk management strategies are essential to navigate the expected market fluctuations [17]