Core Points - The China-ASEAN Expo plays a crucial role in unlocking the economic cooperation potential between China and ASEAN countries [1] - Malaysia is committed to close collaboration with China and ASEAN to explore new cooperation opportunities [1] - The 22nd China-ASEAN Expo has become an important platform for promoting trade and investment, enhancing mutual trust, and strengthening regional connectivity [1] Group 1 - The Expo showcases a wide range of products from Malaysia, including those in education, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, technology, artificial intelligence, logistics, and construction materials [1] - This year, the completion of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiations marks a significant milestone, demonstrating the commitment to strengthen supply chain connectivity, promote digital transformation, and enhance economic resilience [1] Group 2 - In the face of global uncertainties, ASEAN and China must continue to diversify trade and investment strategies while promoting peace, stability, and shared prosperity in the region [2] - As the rotating chair of ASEAN in 2025, Malaysia aims to create a vibrant, competitive, integrated, and resilient region while maintaining ASEAN's central role and enhancing regional cooperation [2]

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - In September, the retail sales of passenger cars reached 304,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 3.8%[1] - As of September 12, the average number of domestic flights was 12,800, a month-on-month decrease of 12.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.01%[1] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 2023.7, a month-on-month increase of 1.12% and a year-on-year increase of 2.84%[1] Domestic Macro - Production Side - As of September 13, the average operating rate of blast furnaces rebounded by 3.47 percentage points to 83.58%[1] - The operating rate of rebar production averaged 42.62%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.26 percentage points[2] - The operating rate of PTA production increased by 5.47 percentage points to 74.95%[1] Price Performance - As of September 12, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.14% week-on-week, while the price of eggs rose by 2.41% week-on-week[1] - The PPI for August showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%[4] - WTI crude oil prices decreased by 1.87% and Brent crude oil prices decreased by 1.22% as of September 12[2] Monetary and Liquidity - The central bank will conduct a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on September 15, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan for the month[3] - The average daily transaction volume of interbank pledged repos increased to 7.5 trillion yuan[3] - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.8670%, an increase of 4 basis points[3] Overseas Macro and Market - The U.S. CPI for August rose by 2.9% year-on-year, in line with expectations[4] - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. surged to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021[4] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September fell to 55.4, the lowest since May of this year[4]

Core Insights - Indonesia is experiencing a wave of protests, but the stock market is at a near five-year high, indicating underlying economic resilience despite short-term challenges such as currency depreciation and weak consumer demand [1][4]. Economic Challenges - The Indonesian rupiah has depreciated by 0.17% in the past month and 6.42% over the past year, with the current exchange rate at 16,414.5 IDR per USD [2]. - Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a slight decrease of 0.08% month-on-month, with an annual inflation rate of 2.31%, reflecting weakened consumer purchasing power [2]. - Domestic travel during the Ramadan period saw a decrease of approximately 47 million people compared to 2024, indicating reduced consumer spending [2]. Trade Performance - Indonesia's imports fell by 5.86% year-on-year in July, marking the largest decline since May 2024, while the country maintained a trade surplus of $4.17 billion for 63 consecutive months, driven by coal, palm oil, and steel exports [3]. - The trade outlook may face uncertainties due to potential impacts from the US-Indonesia tariff agreement and declining coal prices [3]. Stock Market Dynamics - The Jakarta Composite Index closed at 7,885.86 points on September 3, reflecting a 20.96% increase over the past six months, indicating strong market performance despite recent protests [4]. - Economic fundamentals, proactive monetary policy, and valuation recovery are driving the stock market's upward trend [4]. - The stock market is considered undervalued based on the original Buffett indicator, with an expected annual return of +10.9% over the next eight years [5]. Long-term Outlook - Indonesia's large market size and significant role in global commodity trade enhance its resilience against external risks, with food self-sufficiency being a highlight of the economy this year [6]. - The manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from ongoing upgrades, supported by demographic advantages and deepening cooperation with major economies like China [5][6].

Group 1: Deep Dive on Service Industry Opening - The State Council emphasizes the need to promote institutional opening of service trade and leverage service imports to boost domestic service industry development [7] Group 2: Economic Insights from Jackson Hole - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference highlighted a slowdown in economic growth, with real GDP growth at 1.2% in the first half of 2025, half of the 2024 rate, primarily due to reduced consumer spending [10][11] - The labor market shows signs of risk, with average monthly job additions dropping to 35,000 over the past three months, down from 168,000 in 2024 [11] - Inflation remains a concern, with July PCE at 2.6% year-on-year and core PCE at 2.9%, indicating a complex inflationary environment influenced by tariffs [11] Group 3: Social Security Reform - The rapid demographic changes in China necessitate improvements and reforms in the social security system, which may become a key focus during the 14th Five-Year Plan [14] Group 4: Economic Resilience - Economic growth dynamics may shift in the second half of the year, with potential vulnerabilities in certain sectors while others show resilience [17] - Manufacturing sector faces challenges, while the service sector demonstrates stronger demand resilience [25] Group 5: High-Frequency Tracking - Industrial production is showing signs of recovery, with infrastructure projects continuing to improve and port freight volumes remaining robust [21] - Profit growth in industrial enterprises is recovering, but this is largely attributed to low base effects, with ongoing cost pressures [19][21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic landscape, focusing on service industry openness, labor market conditions, inflation trends, and social security reforms, highlighting potential opportunities and challenges in these areas [7][10][14][27]. Group 1: Deep Dive on Service Industry - The State Council emphasizes the need to promote service trade and leverage service imports to boost local service industry development, indicating a shift towards service industry openness as a new growth area [7]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Labor Market - Economic growth is slowing, with a real GDP growth rate of 1.2% in the first half of 2025, significantly lower than the previous year's figures, primarily due to reduced consumer spending [11]. - The labor market shows signs of risk, with average monthly job additions dropping to 35,000 in the last three months, down from 168,000 in 2024, indicating a weakening job market [11]. - The unemployment rate's stability is threatened by a significant slowdown in labor force growth and participation rates, suggesting an increase in job loss risks [11]. Group 3: Inflation Trends - Inflation remains a concern, with July's PCE showing a year-on-year increase of 2.6% and core PCE at 2.9%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [11]. - The impact of tariffs on inflation is becoming evident, with expectations of continued accumulation in the coming months, although the timing and magnitude of these effects remain uncertain [11]. Group 4: Social Security Reform - The article highlights the need for social security system improvements and reforms, particularly in light of rapid demographic changes, suggesting that this will be a key focus during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [14]. Group 5: Economic Resilience - The second half of 2025 may see a "strong-weak switch" in economic growth dynamics, with certain sectors showing resilience while others face challenges, particularly in manufacturing and service industries [18][27]. - Export performance may exceed expectations, driven not by opportunistic exports but by improvements in external demand and market share [27].

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production has shown signs of recovery, with the blast furnace operating rate increasing by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year to 5.9% [2][6] - Midstream production shows a mixed outlook, with PTA and automotive production performing poorly, down 6.6% and 5.9% year-on-year respectively, while soda ash and polyester filament production improved, up 0.1% to 5.8% and 0.9% to 3.1% respectively [2][16] - Cement production continues to improve, with the national grinding operating rate down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year to -5.6%, and cement shipment rates slightly up by 0.8% to -2.9% [28][32] Group 2: Demand Tracking - Daily average transaction area of new homes remains weak, up 2.9 percentage points year-on-year to -6.3%, with first-tier cities showing some recovery [52] - Port cargo throughput related to exports has significantly increased, with cargo throughput and container throughput up 7.1% to 9.7% and 6.1% to 14.8% year-on-year respectively [61][68] - The national migration scale index has decreased by 5.2 percentage points year-on-year to 16.6%, but domestic flight operations have increased by 1.0% to 2.7% [73] Group 3: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are showing divergence, with pork and fruit prices down 0.1% and 0.8% respectively, while egg and vegetable prices increased by 1.7% and 2.5% [3][101] - The industrial product price index has generally declined, with the Nanhua industrial product price index down 1.4% [113] - The energy and chemical price index decreased by 0.9%, and the metal price index fell by 1.7% [113][120]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to maintain its current interest rate level, with discussions on potential rate cuts possibly resuming in the fall if signs of economic slowdown in Europe emerge [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the bank is in an "ideal state" after keeping the benchmark interest rate at 2.00%, marking the end of a year-long rate-cutting cycle [1] - The ECB's latest economic forecasts suggest that inflation will dip below the 2.00% target next year before gradually recovering, which includes considerations for potential future rate cuts [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent data shows that the eurozone economy has proven more resilient than expected, with the inflation rate having fallen to the ECB's target of 2.00% [1] - The Purchasing Managers' Index indicates an acceleration in summer business activity, with new orders in August rising for the first time since May 2024, leading to increased investor optimism regarding the eurozone economic outlook [1] Group 3: External Factors - The 15% tariff imposed by the Trump administration on European goods aligns with ECB predictions, suggesting that external trade policies are influencing economic conditions [1] - Officials have warned that the recent uptick in orders may be a result of U.S. importers placing bulk orders to avoid tariffs, indicating a potential demand drop in the coming months [1]

Core Viewpoint - The strong retail sales data from Canada in July indicates robust domestic consumption and consumer confidence, providing solid fundamental support for the Canadian dollar against the US dollar [1]. Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - Canada's retail sales in July increased by 1.5% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations [1]. - Core retail sales, excluding automobile sales, surged by 1.9%, significantly surpassing the market forecast of 1.1% [1]. - The strong performance in retail sales reflects a broad and significant enhancement in domestic consumption power [1]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The unexpected retail performance reinforces market perceptions of the resilience of the Canadian economy [1]. - This economic strength contributes to the relative strength of the Canadian dollar among major currencies [1]. Group 3: Currency Market Dynamics - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently supported around 1.3820, with short-term resistance between 1.3900 and 1.3920 [1]. - A breakout above the resistance could lead to further gains towards 1.3980, while a drop below 1.3820 may open up a retracement towards 1.3750 [1]. - The overall trend indicates a range-bound movement in the exchange rate, awaiting new policy and data guidance [1].

Core Viewpoint - The United States has imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods, which is seen as a significant economic challenge for India and could potentially lower its GDP growth rate below 6% for the fiscal year [1][2][5]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced a 50% tariff on all Indian products imported for consumption, effective from August 27, 2025 [1][2]. - This tariff is part of a broader strategy against countries maintaining trade relations with Russia, with the cumulative effect of previous tariffs leading to a total of 50% on Indian imports [2][5]. - The tariffs are expected to impact approximately 66% of India's exports to the U.S., including textiles, gems, shrimp, carpets, and furniture [2]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Experts predict that the tariffs could force India to make strategic adjustments to maintain economic growth while addressing employment and industry competitiveness [2]. - The Reserve Bank of India has indicated it will provide special support to industries affected by the tariffs, expressing confidence in achieving results through trade negotiations [3]. - Analysts warn that if the 50% tariff remains long-term, it could exert pressure on India's economy and corporate profits, potentially reducing GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points over the next two years [5]. Group 3: Government Response - Indian Prime Minister Modi emphasized the government's commitment to protecting farmers and small businesses, asserting that they will not compromise on these interests [3]. - The Indian government is exploring financial assistance for affected exporters and encouraging them to diversify into markets in China, Latin America, and the Middle East [5]. - Modi has also promised comprehensive reforms in the goods and services tax to stimulate the economy, which may help mitigate the impact of the tariffs [5]. Group 4: Trade Negotiations - Ongoing trade negotiations between India and the U.S. have faced challenges, particularly regarding agricultural and dairy sectors, with both sides holding firm on their positions [8]. - The cancellation of a scheduled round of trade talks has further complicated the situation, although Indian officials maintain that discussions are still ongoing [8].

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production has shown signs of recovery, with the blast furnace operating rate increasing by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year to 5.9% [2][5] - Midstream production shows a mixed outlook, with PTA and automotive production performing poorly, down 6.6% and 5.9% year-on-year respectively, while soda ash and polyester filament production improved, up 5.8% and 3.1% year-on-year [2][17] - Cement production continues to improve, with a slight decrease in grinding operating rate by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year to -5.6%, while cement shipment rates are still low, up 0.8% year-on-year to -2.9% [2][29] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry is experiencing continued improvement, with asphalt operating rates rising by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 8.6% [2][41] - Cement inventory has slightly decreased, with the cement inventory ratio down by 2.0 percentage points year-on-year to -2.5% [2][37] Group 3: Downstream Demand - Passenger traffic remains high, with port cargo throughput showing resilience, increasing by 7.1% year-on-year to 9.7% [2][62] - Daily average transaction area of new homes is weak, up 2.9 percentage points year-on-year to -6.3%, with first-tier cities seeing a marginal recovery [2][53] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with pork and fruit prices decreasing by 0.1% and 0.8% respectively, while egg and vegetable prices increased by 1.7% and 2.5% [3][102] - Industrial product prices have generally declined, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index down 1.4% [3][114]