Employment Data Overview - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding market expectations of 126,000[4] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, aligning with market forecasts[3] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.9% year-on-year, surpassing expectations[3] Employment Trends - The three-month average for new jobs is 135,300, showing a significant decline compared to the end of 2024[4] - The labor force participation rate fell to approximately 62.4%, with a notable decrease in the labor force population by 625,000[20] - The number of unemployed individuals rose by 71,000, indicating a slight upward trend in unemployment[20] Sector Contributions - Private services accounted for all new jobs in May, with significant increases in transportation, warehousing, and leisure and hospitality sectors[4] - Government employment recorded a decrease of 2,000 jobs, highlighting a negative trend in public sector employment[15] Labor Market Dynamics - Job openings rose to 7.391 million in April, with a vacancy rate of 4.4%, indicating a tightening labor market[6] - The ratio of job seekers to job openings is approximately 1.02, suggesting increased competition for available positions[6] Economic Outlook - Despite the positive May employment data, there are concerns about potential downward revisions of previous months' data, indicating underlying weaknesses in the labor market[4] - The ISM manufacturing and services PMI for May fell below the neutral 50% mark, raising concerns about economic recession risks[42] Federal Reserve Implications - The stable employment data may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain its current interest rates during the June FOMC meeting[45] - The Fed is expected to consider potential rate cuts in Q4, with a possibility of 1-2 cuts throughout the year, potentially exceeding 25 basis points[45]

马斯克：特朗普关税政策将导致今年下半年美国经济衰退。 ...

马斯克：美国总统特朗普的关税将造成美国经济在下半年陷入衰退。 ...

作 者丨叶麦穗吴斌 编 辑丨包芳鸣刘雪莹 黄金盘中跳水！现货黄金盘中一度冲破3400美元/盎司，随后迅速跌破3380美元/盎司。 | W | | 伦敦金现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | 3371.633 | | 昨结 3371.890 开盘 | 3374.250 | | | -0.257 -0.01% | | 总量(kg) 0.00 现手 | | O | | 3403.440 最高价 | 持 仓 | 0 | | 0.000 | | 最低价 3360.925 | 增 位 | O | | 0.000 | | 공개4 五日 | HK 周Ｋ 月Ｋ | 申名 | | | | 叠加 | | | | | | | | な | | | | 3403.440 | | 0.94% 卖1 | 3372.064 | O | | | | 示 | 3371.633 | 0 | | | | | 23:11 3371.520 0 | | | | | | 23:11 3371.500 0 | | | | | 0.00% 23:11 3371. ...

今晚，美国就业市场意外"爆冷"，降息预期飙升。 据ADP Research公布的数据，美国5月ADP就业人数仅增加3.7万人，是自2023年3月以来的最低水平，大幅不及预期。这表明 在经济不确定性日益增加的情况下，劳动力市场可能正在走弱。 数据发布后，投资者对美联储降息的预期大幅上升。特朗普在社交平台上发帖称，美联储主席鲍威尔现在必须降息。美国联 邦住房金融局局长也呼吁鲍威尔降息。有分析称，如果本周五公布的美国5月非农就业数据不及预期，美联储可能面临更大的 政策调整压力。 与此同时，ISM公布的数据显示，美国5月ISM服务业PMI指数报49.9，大幅不及预期的52，是近一年来首次陷入萎缩。受此影 响，美元指数直线跳水，一度跌超0.5%。美股市场整体维持窄幅震荡格局，三大指数小幅上涨。 值得一提的是，中国资产全线爆发，截至北京时间22:50，纳斯达克中国金龙指数大涨超2%，三倍做多富时中国ETF大涨超 4%，两倍做多中国互联网股票ETF涨超3%，富时中国A50指数期货亦小幅拉升，涨0.23%。热门中概股集体走强，蔚来大涨 超9%，名创优品、霸王茶姬涨超4%，阿里巴巴、小鹏汽车、富途控股涨超3%，百济神州、好未来 ...

目前，美国联邦基金利率水平仍然处于较高的水平，这对于缓解美国企业融资负担和美国债务利息负担 极其不利，甚至会将美国经济拖入衰退的泥潭。 美国经济在第一季度已经出现了0.2%的负增长，第二季度的经济情况似乎也并不乐观。特朗普总统的 一系列经济政策，特别是关税政策给美国经济蒙上了巨大的不确定性的阴影，使得美国经济的前景更加 扑朔迷离。 巴菲特先生说过："只有在潮水退去之后，我们才能够知道谁在裸泳"。 6月4日公布的数据显示，美国5月ADP就业人数从前值6万人大幅下降至3.7万人。作为美国非农就业数 据的先导数据的ADP就业人数的再次大幅恶化反映出美国就业市场已经出现了萎缩迹象。 笔者认为，如果不久后公布的美国最新非农就业数据也与ADP就业数据一样不景气，那么美联储在即将 召开的6月议息会议上重新开启降息进程的概率就会大大提升。 前期美联储对于货币政策一直保持观望态度的主要依据之一是美国就业市场仍然保持强劲。如果美国就 业市场的强劲状态出现松动，那么美联储对于货币政策的观望态度也会出现松动。 如果美联储在就业市场出现恶化迹象的情况下仍然维持美国联邦基金利率水平不变，那么未来美联储注 定要为其错失及时放松货币政策的时 ...

Core Viewpoint - California's Governor Newsom has filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration over tariff policies, claiming they are illegal and have severely disrupted the U.S. economy [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact on California - California, as the largest importing state and manufacturing hub in the U.S., plays a crucial role in international trade, with a total import and export volume of $675 billion in 2024, and 45% of exports going to Mexico, Canada, and China [3]. - Trump's aggressive tariff policies have significantly impacted California's economy, causing supply chain disruptions, a 12%-15% increase in raw material costs, and hindering 60,000 small businesses from exporting [3]. - The lawsuit against the Trump administration is a direct response to the economic damage caused, including severe losses for farmers and technology companies [3]. Group 2: Financial Sector Reactions - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has warned that Trump's tariff policies are likely to push inflation up, creating a dilemma for the Fed between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth [5]. - Economic experts and financial institutions are pessimistic about the outlook, with Goldman Sachs predicting a 45% chance of recession if Trump continues trade wars, while JPMorgan estimates the likelihood at 60% [5]. - Standard & Poor's has also warned that the U.S. sovereign credit rating could be downgraded from its current AA+ level due to deteriorating fiscal conditions linked to tariff policies [5]. Group 3: Bond Market and Public Sentiment - The trade war initiated by Trump has caused significant turmoil in the bond market, leading to a record increase in U.S. Treasury yields, with the ten-year yield reaching 4.5% [6]. - The rising yields on U.S. debt, which has reached $36 trillion, could increase annual interest payments by nearly $100 billion, further straining the U.S. fiscal situation [6]. - Public sentiment is largely against Trump's tariff policies, with 72% of respondents in a Quinnipiac University poll believing that tariffs will harm the economy in the short term, and 53% believing the same for the long term [8].

Group 1 - The tax reform bill passed in the House raises concerns about the U.S. budget deficit and the attractiveness of the dollar, leading to uncertainty among stock and bond investors [1] - Hedgeye Risk Management's CEO Keith McCullough believes that the bond and currency markets are sending clear signals, stating that he does not hold any U.S. Treasury bonds and has reduced his gold holdings to a minimum due to rising U.S. economic growth and inflation [1] - McCullough asserts that the U.S. will not enter a recession, and he anticipates that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates in the next three to four quarters, which gives him confidence in not holding U.S. government debt [1] Group 2 - McCullough acknowledges the risks associated with U.S. debt and fiscal deficits but believes that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will not fall below 4.43%, contrary to his previous belief that it could easily drop below 4% [1] - The company holds some fixed-income assets, specifically high-yield corporate bonds, and McCullough indicates that the lack of volatility in high-yield bond spreads suggests no imminent widespread recession or decline in corporate profits [1] - McCullough expects the economic outlook to improve from Q4 to Q1 of the following year, which should provide more support for the dollar, while he still recommends going long on the euro, Australian dollar, and European equities, particularly in Germany, Spain, and Belgium [1] Group 3 - McCullough's model suggests that the worst period for the dollar has passed, as he believes the U.S. economy will not enter a recession and inflation will begin to rise [2] - He indicates that all rate cut expectations for the year have been largely eliminated, and any potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve will not be as significant as investors might expect [2]

智通财经APP获悉，美国首次申请失业救济金人数意外降至四周以来最低点位，进一步表明在特朗普政 府主导的贸易政策带来越来越大经济增长不确定性之际，美国劳动力市场依然保持健康。这也意味着特 朗普面向全球的激进关税政策目前尚未对于美国经济造成重大负面影响，给了美联储政策制定者们继续 观望经济形势以及继续维系高利率的关键理由。 美国首次申请失业救济人数降至4周最低点——持续申领人数则略有上升 持续申领失业救济金人数——衡量领取失业救济整体人数的衡量指标，在前一周则增至 190 万人，仅仅 略高于经济学家们普遍预期。 初请失业金数据的最新水平显示，即便对关税政策以及特朗普政府缩减联邦政府规模所产生的连锁负面 效应感到忧虑，企业们仍相对满意当前的用工规模。 虽然美国政府已对部分关税做出让步，圣路易斯联储主席阿尔韦托·穆萨莱姆(Alberto Musalem)仍认为特 朗普政府主导的贸易政策可能拖累美国劳动力市场。 美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示，截至5月17日当周，美国初请失业金人数减少2,000 人，至22.7万人， 低于经济学家们普遍预期的23万人。该统计期涵盖了美国政府编制月度就业报告的调查周。 华尔街大行高盛集团的 ...

Group 1 - President Trump pressured Walmart to absorb tariff costs without raising prices [1] - Target Corporation lowered its full-year sales forecast after a weak quarterly performance, downplaying plans for price increases related to tariffs [1][3] - Target's comparable sales fell by 3.8% in the quarter ending May 3, exceeding analyst expectations [3] Group 2 - Home improvement retailers Lowe's and Home Depot are exploring strategies to manage tariff costs without comprehensive price increases [3] - Home Depot indicated that while there won't be overall price hikes, some individual product prices may adjust, and certain items might disappear from shelves [3] - Lowe's executives emphasized maintaining price competitiveness and minimizing consumer impact [3] Group 3 - Nike avoided mentioning tariffs but announced price increases on various footwear and apparel products, with specific increases of $5 for shoes priced between $100 and $150, and $10 for shoes over $150 [5] - Major U.S. retailers are facing dual challenges of high costs from tariffs and the need to avoid alienating consumers or the White House [5] Group 4 - A recent Reuters survey indicated that economists believe U.S. government policies have negatively impacted the economy, with over 55% stating it caused severe damage [6] - Current tariff rates are significantly higher than at the beginning of the year, contributing to high policy uncertainty and recession risks [6] - Economists expect U.S. inflation to remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target at least until 2027 [6]