"两位优秀的凯文" 特朗普在采访中透露，财政部长贝森特（Scott Bessent）已主动表示无意接任美联储主席，因此被剔除 出候选名单。他特别提及前美联储理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）与前国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特 （Kevin Hassett）为"两位优秀的凯文"，但未透露其余两名人选。 特朗普再次批评鲍威尔"降息过慢"，未能在通胀回落初期及时放松政策，导致财政融资成本升高、经济 扩张受限。他强调，新任联储主席应更具实务导向，而非"墨守成规"。 外界普遍认为，特朗普对美联储人事的提前干预，反映其试图重塑货币政策路线的意图。 50基点窗口打开 据央视新闻报道，当地时间8月5日，美国总统特朗普表示，可能很快宣布美联储新任主席，美联储理事 的人选决定将于本周末做出。 美国总统特朗普在接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）采访时表示，他已将潜在的未来美联储主 席范围缩小到四名候选人，该名单不包括财政部长斯科特·贝森特。 在市场对9月降息押注迅速升温之际，特朗普此番人事信号被视为美联储主席鲍威尔的利率政策不满的 延续，并可能对美联储的政策独立性构成进一步挑战。 上周公布的7月非农就业新增仅7.3万人 ...

2025.08.06 本文字数：1086，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经 胡弋杰 据央视新闻报道，当地时间8月5日，美国总统特朗普表示，可能很快宣布美联储新任主席，美联储理事 的人选决定将于本周末做出。 美国总统特朗普在接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）采访时表示，他已将潜在的未来美联储主 席范围缩小到四名候选人，该名单不包括财政部长斯科特·贝森特。 在市场对9月降息押注迅速升温之际，特朗普此番人事信号被视为美联储主席鲍威尔的利率政策不满的 延续，并可能对美联储的政策独立性构成进一步挑战。 上周公布的7月非农就业新增仅7.3万人，远逊市场预期；5月和6月的前值合计被向下修正26万人，为劳 动力市场迅速降温提供佐证。芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的美联储观察工具显示，9月降息25个基点的 概率已升至89%。 高盛与花旗均警告，若8月就业继续疲软，美联储或存在"一步到位"下调50个基点的可能。 "两位优秀的凯文" 特朗普在采访中透露，财政部长贝森特（Scott Bessent）已主动表示无意接任美联储主席，因此被剔除 出候选名单。他特别提及前美联储理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）与前国家经济委员会 ...

在美联储副主席米歇尔·鲍曼和理事克里斯托弗·沃勒上周主张降息25个基点后，越来越多的"鸽声"开始出现。 据证券时报报道，当地时间8月4日，旧金山联储主席戴利表示，越来越多的迹象表明美国就业市场正在走软，并且没有证据表明关税引发的价 格上涨正在广泛渗透到通胀数据中，降息的时机正逐渐临近。 在9月货币政策会议之前，仍会有一些关键数据发布，包括劳动力市场和通胀报告，戴利对未来货币政策持开放态度。"如果通胀重新上行并产 生溢出效应，或者劳动力市场反弹，今年降息可能少于两次。" "但我认为更可能的情况是，美联储今年可能需要降息两次以上。"戴利强调，如果劳动力市场明显走弱，而美联储又未看到通胀的溢出效应， 那应该准备降息更多。 在美联储嘹亮的"鸽声"下，CME美联储观察工具显示，市场目前预计美联储9月降息的概率已逼近100%，几乎"板上钉钉"。 图片来源：新华社 美联储为何"鸽声"嘹亮？ 近期美联储降息预期迅速升温，如果接下来的经济数据没有太大意外，美联储9月降息是大概率事件。 中航证券首席经济学家董忠云对21世纪经济报道记者表示，近期，市场对美联储在9月议息会议上降息的预期显著升温，其直接触发因素可归 结为两条主线。 ...

美国总统特朗普在接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）采访时表示，他已将潜在的未来美联储主 席范围缩小到四名候选人，该名单不包括财政部长斯科特·贝森特。 在市场对9月降息押注迅速升温之际，特朗普此番人事信号被视为美联储主席鲍威尔的利率政策不满的 延续，并可能对美联储的政策独立性构成进一步挑战。 上周公布的7月非农就业新增仅7.3万人，远逊市场预期；5月和6月的前值合计被向下修正26万人，为劳 动力市场迅速降温提供佐证。芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的美联储观察工具显示，9月降息25个基点的 概率已升至89%。 高盛与花旗均警告，若8月就业继续疲软，美联储或存在"一步到位"下调50个基点的可能。 高盛、花旗等机构首次将一次性下调50个基点列入备选剧本。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间8月5日，美国总统特朗普表示，可能很快宣布美联储新任主席，美联储理事 的人选决定将于本周末做出。 特朗普再次批评鲍威尔"降息过慢"，未能在通胀回落初期及时放松政策，导致财政融资成本升高、经济 扩张受限。他强调，新任联储主席应更具实务导向，而非"墨守成规"。 外界普遍认为，特朗普对美联储人事的提前干预，反映其试图重塑货币政策路线的意图。 50 ...

Economic Impact - The "money bag war" initiated by the Trump administration has severely impacted the U.S. economy, imposing tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese goods and 25% on European steel and aluminum, leading to soaring prices and an additional monthly expenditure of $200 for food for average families [3][6] - A report from the California government indicated that tariffs resulted in a loss of up to $170 billion for businesses in the state over a year [3] Social Unrest - The policies of the Trump administration have led to widespread public discontent, with the Social Security Administration's website crashing for two weeks, preventing many elderly individuals from receiving their pensions [8] - Protests have erupted across the country, including truck drivers blocking highways due to financial losses from tariffs and elderly individuals gathering at Social Security offices to voice their grievances [8] Political Stalemate - The U.S. Congress has experienced paralysis, with 50 Democratic senators collectively taking a month-long recess to obstruct Trump's appointments, while the Republican party pushed through the appointment of Trump's ally, exacerbating political tensions [9] - Biden has publicly criticized Trump for undermining the Constitution and has highlighted the job losses resulting from Trump's Social Security policies [11] Federal Reserve Dynamics - Trump attempted to exert control over the Federal Reserve, pressuring it to lower interest rates, but faced opposition from seven board members during a rate meeting [6] - The resignation of a key board member, appointed by Biden, has allowed Trump to nominate a supporter of aggressive rate cuts, potentially leading to significant economic consequences, including a projected inflation rate increase to 5.2% [6]

美元指数走软背景下，人民币兑美元汇率继续走强 （大公文汇网记者 倪巍晨 上海报道）美元指数走软背景下，人民币兑美元汇率继续走强。8月4日，人民币中间价报 7.1395，较上一交易日调升101点，升幅为今年1月21日以来最劲，离岸与在岸人民币兑美元早盘也均收复7.2关。分析 称，美国最新非农就业数据断崖式下跌，加剧市场对美国经济衰退的忧虑，美元指数也终结反弹，这是人民币兑美元汇 率走强的主因。同时，中美最新贸易谈判取得积极进展，以及二季度中国经济超预期表现，也为人民币汇率保持基本均 衡提供支撑，下半年人民币汇率或续偏强，年末汇价有望升见7.1。 市场数据显示，人民币兑美元汇率中间价从6月末的7.1586升至7月末的7.1494，呈现偏强势头。瑞银财富管理投资总监 办公室（CIO）指出，近期中国政府放宽境外投资额度、扩容「债券通」项下「南向通」，并鼓励在跨境贸易中更多使 用人民币，一系列举措凸显了金融管理部门对人民币日益增强的支持态度。与此同时，二季度中国GDP同比增速优于预 期，加之强劲的出口势头及中美关税风险的缓和，宏观形势为人民币汇率提供支撑。该团队强调，年内美元DXY指数 已下跌10.5%，同期人民币仅上 ...

Group 1: Tariff War and Economic Implications - President Trump announced plans to significantly increase tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian oil and weapons, which he claims is for profit [1][3] - Trump threatened additional punitive tariffs on India, stating that if India continues its current purchasing behavior, a 25% import tariff would be imposed [3] - India's government responded by emphasizing that its oil imports from Russia are part of long-term contracts and are necessary for stabilizing energy costs for consumers [4] Group 2: Employment Data and Market Reactions - Trump accused the U.S. Labor Department of manipulating employment data to favor Democrats, leading to his decision to dismiss the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics [5] - The recent non-farm payroll report showed only a 73,000 increase in jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% [8][9] - The disappointing employment data has raised concerns about the U.S. economy, leading to a spike in market volatility and increased expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [9][10] Group 3: Precious Metals Market Trends - Following the employment report, gold and silver prices increased, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.85% to $3428.6 per ounce [8] - The market anticipates a high probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 94.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut in September [8] - Analysts predict that if the U.S. economy continues to weaken, it could lead to a favorable environment for precious metals, with gold prices potentially breaking above $3500 per ounce in the second half of the year [10][11]

Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of a rapid slowdown, with July non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, the lowest in nine months, significantly below the expected 104,000 [1] - Revisions to previous months' data show a downward adjustment, with May's non-farm payrolls revised down by 125,000 to 19,000 and June's by 133,000 to 14,000, resulting in a total reduction of 258,000 jobs for May and June combined [1] - The unemployment rate in July rose to 4.2%, matching expectations and up from 4.1% in the previous month [1] - The U.S. Trade Representative indicated that current tariff policies will remain unchanged, with significant tariffs on imports from Canada (35%), Brazil (50%), India (25%), and Switzerland (39%) [1] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have risen from approximately 3267.0 to a peak of 3367.0, marking a $100 increase, with the market showing upward momentum [4] - The moving averages indicate support for gold prices, suggesting a potential buying opportunity around the support level of 3333.0, with resistance levels at 3376.0 and 3392.0 [4] - Silver prices have declined from 39.52 to a low of 36.20, reflecting a bearish trend, with moving averages confirming the downward movement [7] - A selling strategy is recommended for silver, with a focus on the resistance level of 37.18 and potential targets at 36.66 and 36.35 [7]

Group 1 - Citi has adjusted its bearish forecast on gold, predicting that prices will rise to record highs in the short term due to deteriorating U.S. economic conditions and tariffs driving inflation [1] - Analysts, including Max Layton, forecast that gold prices will fluctuate between $3,300 and $3,600 per ounce over the next three months, influenced by higher-than-expected average U.S. import tariffs [1] - This new outlook contrasts sharply with Citi's June prediction, which anticipated gold prices would fall below $3,000 per ounce in the coming quarters [1] Group 2 - Despite a more optimistic outlook for gold prices, Citi analysts noted that their previous short-term price range of $3,150 to $3,500 per ounce performed well, as recent price consolidation confirmed this assessment [2] - The analysts maintain a cautious stance on gold prices for 2026, citing increased certainty regarding trade and potential stimulus measures from the "Great and Beautiful Act," which may signal an end to the pause in U.S. job growth [2]

Economic Outlook - The recent employment report indicates that the U.S. economy is heading towards a recession, with various economic indicators signaling a downturn [1] - Consumer spending is stagnating, construction and manufacturing sectors are contracting, and employment is expected to decline [1][2] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in responding to rising inflation, which complicates potential interventions [1] Employment Data - Non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 last month, significantly below the expected 110,000, with previous months' data also revised downwards [2] - The average monthly job growth over the past three months is only 35,000, indicating a slowdown in employment growth [2] - Despite a stable unemployment rate around 4% to 4.2%, the labor force participation rate is declining due to reduced foreign-born labor [3] Labor Market Dynamics - The reduction in foreign-born labor by 1.2 million over the past six months is attributed to restrictive immigration policies, leading to a stagnation in labor supply [3] - There is a hiring freeze across the economy, particularly affecting new graduates, which suggests a significant drop in the "neutral job growth" needed to maintain stable unemployment [3] - Morgan Stanley economists have raised alarms about potential recession, noting that private sector job growth has averaged only 52,000 per month over the past three months [3][4] Economic Indicators - The second quarter GDP showed unexpected growth, but domestic final demand indicators suggest a slowdown [2] - Core inflation accelerated to 2.8%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, while consumer spending growth in June fell short of expectations [2] - The Atlanta Fed's GDP tracking model predicts a slowdown in economic growth from 3% in the second quarter to 2.1% in the third quarter [2]