威尔明顿信托高级债券投资组合经理认为，美联储不会锁定"暂停"立场，主席鲍威尔或将突出政策灵活 性。"此次会议除维稳利率外，不会有太多其他动作。美联储已进入可保持耐心的阶段。" 转自：新华财经 新华财经北京1月27日电 市场普遍预期，美联储将在本周召开的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上 维持联邦基金利率在3.50%–3.75%区间不变。 高盛集团指出，理事沃勒和鲍曼预计将支持维持利率不变，而理事米兰可能成为唯一反对者。高盛首席 美国经济学家预测，美联储2025年将实施两次降息，首次行动将于6月落地。 路透社援引上周五公布的数据称，美国12月非农就业增长放缓幅度超预期，但失业率回落至4.4%，薪 资增长稳健；同期消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，与11月持平，符合市场预期。这些指标强化 了美联储在1月会议按兵不动的合理性。 此前，多位美联储官员近期表态亦指向政策审慎。前堪萨斯城联储主席乔治表示："我的预期是，他们 将释放暂停降息的信号……会维持利率不变相当长一段时间。"纽约联储主席威廉姆斯及美联储理事巴 尔等核心成员亦多次使用"政策处于合理区间"这一措辞，强调决策将基于逐次会议的数据评估，而非预 设路 ...

Group 1 - The recent volatility in the financial markets has dissipated, leaving little trace in the $30 trillion bond market [1] - Traders' hopes for a rebound in volatility from historical lows have once again been dashed [1] - On Tuesday, U.S. Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in months, but the market's rebound erased most of the week's declines [1] Group 2 - Investors expect the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at their current levels in the upcoming meeting [1] - The current yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury is approximately 4.23%, with a weekly increase of about 1 basis point [1] - The weekly fluctuation in this benchmark yield has not exceeded 6 basis points for seven consecutive weeks [1]

Core Insights - The PCE inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve showed performance in November that aligned with expectations, but it does not provide much guidance for policymakers on when to consider rate cuts [1] - The latest data revealed that the core PCE price index increased by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, reflecting conditions from November of the previous year due to delays caused by a government shutdown [1] - Despite being a preferred measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve, the timeliness of this report suggests that officials may place less emphasis on this data than usual [1] - The data indicates that inflation remains persistent yet stable, maintaining levels seen in recent months [1] - With more timely data expected in December and early 2026, the Federal Reserve appears prepared to remain patient and keep interest rates unchanged in the upcoming policy meeting [1]

Core Viewpoint - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. remains stable at a low level, indicating a limited scale of layoffs in the labor market, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in the upcoming policy meeting [1] Group 1: Jobless Claims Data - Initial jobless claims increased by 1,000 to 200,000 for the week ending January 17, with a median forecast of 209,000 [1] - The four-week moving average fell to 201,500, marking a two-year low [1] - Continuing claims dropped to 1.85 million, the lowest since November [1]

Group 1 - The CME "Fed Watch" data indicates a 95% probability of maintaining interest rates in January, with a significant reduction in expectations for rate cuts in March, reflecting a market consensus that the Fed has no immediate reason to change its stance [2][4] - The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by March is only 20.6%, a stark contrast to the overly optimistic sentiment at the end of last year, with only a 0.9% chance for a 50 basis point cut, suggesting a prolonged high interest rate environment [2][4] Group 2 - The market's shift away from aggressive rate cut bets is primarily due to the resilience of U.S. economic data, with employment and consumption remaining stable, leading the Fed to adopt a cautious approach [4][5] - Despite high interest rates, gold prices remain robust, as the focus shifts from "when to cut rates" to whether rate hikes have peaked, reducing the marginal pressure on gold [4][5] Group 3 - Key factors supporting gold's resilience include the non-linear characteristics of falling inflation, persistent core inflation, and service prices that have not yet reached levels that would allow the Fed to declare victory [5] - The longer high interest rates persist, the greater the pressure on fiscal debt and asset valuations, enhancing gold's value as a non-credit-dependent asset amid these potential risks [7] Group 4 - For ordinary investors, the probability data serves as a tool for managing expectations, emphasizing the need to abandon aggressive easing assumptions and accept a potentially slower pace of monetary easing [8] - Gold should be viewed as a stabilizer in asset allocation, particularly in an environment marked by geopolitical tensions and debt risks, focusing on broader trends rather than single-point probabilities [8][10] Group 5 - The CME data reflects a return to reality from excessive optimism rather than an escalation of tightening, positioning gold as a form of insurance in a complex world [10] - Investors are encouraged to assess their risk tolerance and consider gold as a means to balance portfolio volatility, acknowledging that while rate cuts may be delayed, the uncertainty in the global financial order has made gold a necessity [10]

Core Insights - The upcoming inflation report is expected to show stable inflation pressures in the U.S., explaining the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts [1][2] - The November core PCE price index is projected to rise by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, indicating inflation levels remain significantly above the Fed's 2% target [1] - Despite some indicators suggesting a gradual cooling of inflation pressures, the core PCE typically exhibits less volatility compared to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1] Inflation Indicators - The overall PCE is also expected to increase by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, indicating a sideways movement in inflation levels [1] - Citigroup economists noted that the core PCE inflation may show "sticky rather than accelerating" characteristics towards the end of 2025 [1] - The data disturbances from last year's government shutdown continue to affect the November readings, with seasonal adjustments likely to revise recent data in the coming months [1] Wage Growth and Service Sector - Signs of inflation easing are accumulating, with wage growth significantly slowing down, approaching pre-pandemic levels according to the Atlanta Fed's wage tracking indicator [1] - The cooling of wage growth complicates maintaining high service sector inflation, especially with expected declines in housing costs this year [1] Federal Reserve's Position - Federal Reserve officials are weighing conflicting signals, as inflation has not worsened but the cooling rate is insufficient to clearly support recent interest rate cuts [2] - The upcoming PCE report will be an important reference for policymakers, but it is unlikely to lead to immediate policy changes [2] - Investors currently anticipate a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at the upcoming policy meeting [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is showing public support for Fed governor Lisa Cook amid a legal challenge regarding her potential firing by President Trump, which could significantly impact the Fed's governance and policy direction [1][2][3]. Group 1: Legal Context - The Supreme Court is deliberating whether President Trump has the authority to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook, a move he indicated in late August [2]. - Cook has denied allegations of mortgage fraud made by the Trump administration, and no charges have been filed against her [5]. Group 2: Powell's Response - Powell's attendance at the Supreme Court session represents a more public stance of support for Cook compared to his previous responses to Trump's criticisms of the Fed [3]. - Powell condemned the subpoenas issued by the Trump administration as attempts to pressure the Fed into lowering interest rates, which he argues should not be as low as Trump suggests [4]. Group 3: Potential Implications - If Trump successfully removes Cook, he could appoint a replacement, potentially giving his appointees a majority on the Fed's board, which would influence decisions on interest rates and bank regulation [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market has experienced a short - term adjustment. The dollar index has strengthened recently, cooling the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market, and the copper futures market has also corrected. The market's expectation of a copper supply shortage outside the US has eased, and the demand forecast has been significantly revised downwards, resulting in a temporary lack of growth momentum for copper. However, the copper fundamentals remain tight. Short - term weak demand does not represent the overall strong demand, and there is a downward trend in the mining and smelting sectors. With the continuous implementation of domestic growth - stabilizing policies, copper is mainly in a phased correction [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Macro - aspect**: In December, the US CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month as expected, and the core CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected, increasing the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in April. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the short term, and the dollar has strengthened recently. The domestic central bank has lowered the re - lending rate for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 0.25 percentage points since January 19. The annual RMB loans increased by 16.27 trillion yuan, and M2 increased by 8.5% year - on - year [2]. - **Supply - aspect**: Trump decided not to impose tariffs on rare earths, lithium, and other key minerals. Since 2026, the sulfuric acid price has slightly corrected, narrowing smelter profits and weakening spot processing fees. Smelters plan to cut production this year. The production of refined copper is expected to decline in January, with 5 smelters planning to stop production and 1 planned smelter delaying its commissioning. Due to the shortage of copper concentrates and increased losses of smelters, scrap copper has gradually become the main source of smelting copper, but both upstream and downstream are cautious, and raw material procurement volume is poor [2]. - **Demand - aspect**: Downstream copper buyers have low enthusiasm, leading to a significant increase in copper inventory. The terminal new - energy market performs poorly, with retail sales of new - energy vehicles from January 1 to 11 being 117,000 units, a 38% year - on - year decrease compared to the same period in 2025 and a 67% decline compared to the same period in December 2025. However, short - term decline does not mean a long - term trend. Policy subsidies and the upcoming New Year small peak season are expected to improve production and sales. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises are on holiday, and copper product buyers are cautious [2]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend - This week, Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly. The weekly high was 105,650 yuan/ton, the low was 100,060 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 5.51%, and the range increase/decrease was - 0.63% [4]. 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of January 19, the average spot premium/discount in East China was - 100 yuan/ton, and in South China it was - 85 yuan/ton. Domestic copper inventory continues to accumulate, and the spot remains at a discount. With downstream enterprises about to enter the holiday period, procurement demand slows down, and it is expected to continue trading at a discount [9]. 3.4 London Copper Spread Structure - As of January 16, LME copper fell 0.5% during the week, closing at $12,925/ton, with a spot premium of $75/ton [14]. 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply - In November 2025, China imported 2.526 million tons of copper ore and concentrates; from January to November, the import volume was 27.614 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. It is expected that in December 2025, China will import 2.6 million physical tons of copper ore and concentrates, with an annual import volume of 30.26 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.43% and an expected increase of 2.094 million physical tons. The new collective - agreement negotiation at the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile is at a standstill, and the strike continues to affect copper production [19]. 3.6 Scrap Copper Supply - In November 2025, the scrap - copper import volume was 208,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.92%; from January to November, the cumulative scrap - copper import volume was 2.104 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51%. According to SMM data, the operating rate of recycled copper rods this week was 13.52%, an increase of 0.53% from last week. After the Shanghai copper price corrected last week, recycled - copper enterprises made low - price purchases to fulfill historical orders. With the shortage of copper concentrates and increased losses of smelters, scrap copper has gradually become the main source of smelting copper, but both upstream and downstream are cautious, and raw material procurement volume is poor [24]. 3.7 Smelter Fees - As of January 16, the domestic spot rough - smelting fee (TC) was - 46.6 dollars/dry ton, and the RC fee was - 4.84 cents/pound, with TC/RC fees remaining weakly stable. Since 2026, the sulfuric acid price has slightly corrected, narrowing smelter profits. The China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) announced that its members will jointly cut production by more than 10% in 2026. On December 19, Chinese copper - smelter representatives and international mining giant Antofagasta finalized the 2026 copper - concentrate long - term processing fee (Benchmark) at $0/ton and $0 cents/pound, a historic "zero" compared to $21.25/ton and 2.125 cents/pound in 2025 [28]. 3.8 Refined Copper Supply - In December, SMM's Chinese electrolytic - copper production increased by 75,000 tons month - on - month, an increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. From January to December, the cumulative production increased by 1.372 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 11.38%. After some smelters stopped production earlier, they gradually resumed production this month. The production of refined copper is expected to decline in January, with 5 smelters planning to stop production and 1 planned smelter delaying its commissioning. According to customs data, in November 2025, China imported 427,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products; from January to November, the import volume was 4.883 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [32]. 3.9 Apparent Demand - As of November 2025, the apparent copper consumption was 1.2681 million tons, a 4.06% decrease from the previous month [36]. 3.10 Sub - industry Production Forecast - Mysteel predicts that in January 2026, the开工 rate of sample copper - tube enterprises will slightly increase, with a production of about 147,500 tons and a capacity utilization rate of 63.66%, a month - on - month increase of 2.07%. The expected production of domestic electrolytic copper foil is 108,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83%. The expected copper - rod 开工 rate will drop to 51.31%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 9.62 percentage points [40]. 3.11 Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of November 2025, the national cumulative power - generation installed capacity was 3.79 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. Among them, the solar - power installed capacity was 1.16 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 41.9%; the wind - power installed capacity was 600 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.4%; the hydropower installed capacity was 440 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 3%; and the nuclear - power installed capacity was 60 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 7.6% [44]. 3.12 Real - Estate and Infrastructure Data - According to National Bureau of Statistics data, in December, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 93.99 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 39.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.58%; the sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 880.7 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 44.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.24% [50]. 3.13 Automobile/New - Energy Automobile Industry Data - In the new - energy passenger - vehicle sector, from January 1 to 11, retail sales were 117,000 units, a 38% year - on - year decrease compared to the same period in 2025 and a significant 67% decline compared to the same period in December 2025. However, short - term decline does not mean a long - term trend. Policy subsidies and the upcoming New Year small peak season are expected to improve production and sales. Since January 1, 2026, the vehicle purchase tax has changed from exemption to half - collection. On December 30, the "Notice on Implementing the Policy of Large - Scale Equipment Upgrades and Consumer Goods Trade - ins in 2026" was issued, stating that the "trade - in" subsidies for heavy trucks and buses will continue, with the subsidy scope and standards remaining the same as in 2025. The subsidy for passenger cars has changed from a fixed - amount subsidy to a proportional subsidy, with the subsidy ceiling unchanged, and the subsidy amount for low - price cars has decreased, which will offset part of the decline caused by the increase in purchase tax [56]. 3.14 Global Copper Inventories in Major Exchanges - As of January 16, LME copper inventory increased by 4,600 tons to 143,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.83%. COMEX copper inventory was 542,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.78% and a year - on - year increase of 465.67%. Trump's statement last week that he will temporarily not impose tariffs on other key minerals has postponed the collection of refined - copper tariffs, weakening the siphon effect on US copper, but COMEX copper inventory still increased. On January 15, the cumulative spot copper inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 117,500 tons, and the bonded - area inventory decreased as some warehouse goods left the port for export and a few enterprises imported through processing manuals. As of January 16, the Shanghai Futures copper inventory was 160,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.41%; the cathode - copper inventory was 213,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18.26%, showing a significant inventory - accumulation trend [61][66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, under the background of the decline in interest rate cut and tariff expectations, the upward pace of copper prices may slow down, and the volatility remains high due to the game of the Fed Chairman candidate and geopolitical disturbances. In the medium - to - long - term, the logic of tight supply and demand supports the price. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of layout on dips and do a good job in risk control, with a strategy of buying on dips during the oscillatory operation [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Part 01: Weekly Review - **Supply - side Data (1.12 - 1.16)**: - Copper concentrate spot TC decreased from - 45.41 to - 46.53 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.47%. The spot trading activity of copper concentrate was cold, and the negotiation between Capstone Copper and striking miners failed, with the strike at Mantoverde Copper Mine continuing [8]. - The refined - scrap copper price difference decreased from 5312 to 4692 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.67%. The price of recycled copper raw materials was firm, and the price difference narrowed slightly. Recycled copper rod enterprises made bargain purchases when copper prices fell [8]. - The southern crude copper processing fee remained at 2000 yuan/ton. The production profit of recycled copper rods was less than that of anode plates, causing some enterprises to switch to anode plate production, which supported the crude copper processing fee [8]. - The operating rate of refined copper rods increased from 48% to 57%, an increase of 20.18%. It was mainly affected by the resumption of production after the holiday and the phased decline of copper prices, and downstream released a small amount of rigid - demand orders [8]. - The operating rate of recycled copper rods increased from 13% to 14%, an increase of 4.08%. Although copper prices declined, the actual transaction of recycled copper rods remained sluggish, and the increase in the operating rate was limited due to the uncertainty of fiscal and tax policies [8]. - The operating rate of wire and cable decreased from 57% to 56%, a decrease of 1.04%. The improvement of new orders was limited, some small enterprises started holidays in advance, and the market was in a wait - and - see state [8]. - **Inventory Data (1.12 - 1.16)**: - The available days of copper concentrate port inventory increased from 5.3 to 5.7 days, an increase of 7.81%. Global visible inventory increased, mainly from the accumulation of COMEX and domestic inventories [8]. - The social inventory of electrolytic copper increased from 27.38 to 32.09 million tons, an increase of 17.20%. High copper prices inhibited downstream purchasing and sales sentiment, and the market delivery volume was limited [8]. - The bonded area inventory increased from 7.88 to 8 million tons, an increase of 1.52%. The export window opened, and smelters' exports continued to increase [8]. - The total social and bonded inventory increased from 35.26 to 40.09 million tons, an increase of 13.70% [8]. - The SHFE copper inventory increased from 28.00 to 124.42 million tons, an increase of 344.36% [8]. - The LME copper inventory increased from 13.90 to 14.36 million tons, an increase of 3.31%. The COMEX - LME copper price difference decreased, but US copper was still difficult to flow out, and both COMEX and LME inventories entered the accumulation stage [8]. - The COMEX copper inventory increased from 517,999 to 542,914 short tons, an increase of 4.81% [8]. - The global total inventory increased from 93.57 to 98.58 million tons, an increase of 5.35% [8]. - **Profit Data (1.12 - 1.16)**: - The smelting comprehensive profit (spot) increased from - 4470 to - 2732 yuan/ton, an increase of 38.87%. The smelting loss was repaired due to the relatively weak performance of the external market and the strengthening of the exchange rate [8]. - The smelting comprehensive profit (long - term contract) increased from - 2213 to - 424 yuan/ton, an increase of 80.86% [8]. - The import profit decreased from - 1248 to - 1627 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.36% [8]. - **Macro and Fundamental Analysis**: - Macro: The US employment market remained resilient, strengthening the expectation that the Fed would keep interest rates unchanged in the next few months. The change of the next Fed Chairman candidate cooled the interest rate cut expectation, the US dollar index strengthened, and geopolitical risks rose. Trump announced a 10% tariff on goods imported from multiple countries starting from February 1st, increasing market uncertainty and the risk of copper price fluctuations [11]. - Fundamental: Trump postponed the tariff on key minerals (copper is on the US key minerals list), which eased the tariff expectation, narrowed the price difference, and weakened the siphon effect. The pressure of domestic inventory accumulation increased, suppressing the upward momentum of copper prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the tight supply pattern of copper mines remained unchanged, supporting the central price of copper [11]. 3.2 Part 02: Copper Industry Chain - **Price, Spread, Cost, and Profit**: - The report presents historical data on SMM1 electrolytic copper premium/discount, Shanghai copper term structure, Shanghai copper main contract closing price, Shanghai - London ratio, LME3 closing price, LME (0 - 3) premium/discount, electrolytic copper comprehensive profit, spot copper import profit, feed - in processing spot export profit, and electrolytic copper comprehensive profit (long - term contract) [13][16][18][20][22]. - **Supply and Demand**: - **Supply**: It includes data on the production of copper concentrates in Chile and Peru, copper concentrate imports, scrap copper imports, crude copper imports, electrolytic copper production, and electrolytic copper imports [28][32][33]. - **Demand**: - **Copper Rod - Cable**: It shows data on the operating rate of refined copper rods, copper rod raw material inventory, copper rod finished product inventory ratio, wire and cable operating rate, and enameled wire operating rate [34]. - **Cable Terminal - Power Grid**: It provides data on cumulative and monthly power grid investment completion and power source investment completion [36]. - **Copper Tube - Air Conditioner**: It includes data on the operating rate of copper tubes, copper tube raw material inventory ratio, copper tube finished product inventory, household air - conditioner production, domestic sales, and export volume [45]. - **Copper Plate and Strip**: It shows data on the operating rate of copper plates and strips, copper plate and strip raw material inventory, and copper plate and strip raw material inventory ratio [47]. - **Terminal - Automobile**: It provides data on automobile production, new - energy automobile production, automobile sales, and new - energy automobile sales [53]. - **Brass Rod - Real Estate**: It includes data on the operating rate of brass rods, 30 - city commercial housing transaction area, cumulative and monthly housing completion area [57]. - **Copper Inventory**: It presents data on China's electrolytic copper social inventory, global refined copper inventory, LME cancelled warrants and their proportion, SHFE copper inventory warrants, COMEX electrolytic copper inventory, and LME electrolytic copper inventory [61]. 3.3 Part 03: Capital Positions - **Copper External Market Positions**: - On January 13th, the non - commercial long - position ratio of CFTC was 36.1%, showing a weakening trend recently [68]. - On January 9th, the net long position of LME investment funds was 49,251.04 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 9087.96 lots [69]. - **Shanghai Copper Capital Positions**: Last week, the total position of Shanghai copper decreased by 37,691 lots to 643,590 lots (one - side) [73].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - Aluminum prices are expected to mainly show a high - level oscillatory trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities, and it is recommended to mainly observe option contracts [6][33] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - Last week, the main contract AL2603 of Shanghai Aluminum futures showed an oscillatory market, with prices ranging from around 23,790 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 25,075 yuan/ton [8] 2. Macroeconomic Aspects - In December 2025, the national ex - factory prices of industrial producers decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month; they increased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. The purchase prices of industrial producers decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month; they increased by 0.4% month - on - month, with the increase expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month. In 2025, the ex - factory prices of industrial producers decreased by 2.6%, and the purchase prices of industrial producers decreased by 3.0%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January was 2.8%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 97.2%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut was 26.8%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 72.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut was 0.7% [5][12][13][32] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - As of December 2025, the domestic alumina in - production capacity was 95.7 million tons, the total capacity was 114.62 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.49%, maintaining a relatively high level compared to the past five years. As of December 2025, the in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.594 million tons, the total capacity was 45.362 million tons, and the operating rate was 98.31%, maintaining a relatively high level compared to the past five years from a seasonal perspective [18] 4. Inventory Situation - As of January 16, 2026, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 185,879 tons, an increase of 42,051 tons from the previous week. As of January 16, 2026, the LME aluminum inventory was 488,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 8.45%. As of January 15, 2026, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 698,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous day [24] 5. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The situation of global alumina supply surplus continues. The in - production capacity and operating rate of alumina both decreased, while the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum enterprises remained high. The Shanghai Aluminum inventory increased significantly, and the inventory level was at a low level in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly [32] 6. Future Outlook - Aluminum prices are expected to mainly show a high - level oscillatory trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities, and it is recommended to mainly observe option contracts [6][33]