1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metal market maintains an oscillating upward trend, with the price movements of gold and silver showing phased differentiation. Driven by the sentiment of repairing the gold - silver ratio, the performance of silver is significantly stronger than that of gold. The US initial jobless claims data is better than expected, indicating the resilience of the labor market. The annualized GDP growth rate in the second quarter was revised up from 3.3% to 3.8%, reaching a two - year high. The core PCE year - on - year rose to 2.6%, slightly higher than expected, showing that inflation remains sticky. The US dollar index rebounded for two consecutive days, stabilizing above the 98 mark, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose to 4.2%. The short - term rebound of the US dollar may suppress the precious metal market. There are differences within the Fed on the future monetary policy path. The ETFs of gold and silver in the external market recorded large net inflows, and the market bullish sentiment remains high. It is recommended to conduct interval band trading and pay attention to short - term correction risks [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 866.52 yuan/gram, with a week - on - week increase of 10.46; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 10939 yuan/kilogram, with a week - on - week increase of 307. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold are 263220 lots, a decrease of 1085; the main contract positions of Shanghai silver are 508967 lots, a decrease of 35265. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract are 167719 lots, an increase of 2252; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract are 98895 lots, a decrease of 14959 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 68628 kilograms, an increase of 2802; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver is 1189648 kilograms, an increase of 31382. The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 857.03 yuan/gram, an increase of 4.04; the spot price of silver is 10770 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 275. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 9.49 yuan/gram, a decrease of - 6.42; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 169 yuan/kilogram, a decrease of - 32 [3] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings are 1005.72 tons, an increase of 8.87; the silver ETF holdings are 15361.84 tons, a decrease of 28.23. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 266749 contracts, an increase of 339; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC are 52276 contracts, an increase of 738. The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, an increase of 54.84; the total supply of silver in the year is 987.8 million troy ounces, a decrease of 21.4. The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, an increase of 54.83; the global total demand for silver in the year is 1195 million ounces, a decrease of 47.4 [3] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 13.38%, a decrease of 0.71; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.45%, a decrease of 0.1. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 19.59%, a decrease of 0.94; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 19.58%, a decrease of 0.95 [3] 3.5 Industry News - Trump will meet with the four leaders of Congress on Monday due to the approaching risk of the US government shutdown. Goldman Sachs analysts said that the risk of the US economy re - accelerating is rising. Affected by the US tariff policy adjustment, the global economic and trade frictions have heated up again, and the global economic and trade friction index in July was 110, at a high level. The amount involved in global economic and trade friction measures increased by 6.6% year - on - year and 27.6% month - on - month, with the US having the largest amount involved [3]

Group 1 - The central bank of Pakistan reported an increase in foreign exchange reserves by $22 million for the week ending September 19, bringing total reserves to $14.38 billion [1] - The total national foreign exchange reserves reached $19.79 billion, with commercial banks holding net foreign exchange reserves of $5.41 billion [1] - The Pakistani Rupee appreciated slightly by 0.01% against the US dollar, closing at 281.41 on September 25, marking a cumulative appreciation of 0.84% since July [1] Group 2 - The price of gold in Pakistan decreased significantly on September 25, aligning with trends in the international market [1]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - The precious metals market is experiencing unprecedented strength, driven by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and increasing geopolitical risks [1][3] - On September 26, silver prices surpassed $46 per ounce, reaching a 14-year high, with a six-month increase of over 30% [1][3] - Platinum prices surged by 11.5% in one week, breaking through $1500 per ounce, marking a 12-year high [1][3] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver's recent price surge is attributed to its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal, benefiting from economic conditions such as rising inflation and loose liquidity [4][5] - The average price of silver is projected to be $28.27 per ounce in 2024, up from $23.35 in 2023 [4] - The current gold-silver ratio is approximately 82 domestically and 85 internationally, indicating that silver is still undervalued and has significant price recovery potential [5] Group 3: Platinum and Gold Performance - Platinum prices have increased significantly, with a year-to-date rise of over 73%, driven by demand in automotive catalysts and electric vehicle batteries [7] - Gold remains strong near historical highs, with a current price of $3783 per ounce, supported by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainties [7][8] - In September, global gold ETF inflows reached a record $10.5 billion, with total inflows exceeding $50 billion year-to-date [7] Group 4: Future Outlook and Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that while silver has strong upward momentum, caution is advised due to potential price volatility at high levels [10][11] - The macroeconomic environment, including expectations of continued monetary easing and geopolitical uncertainties, is expected to support silver prices [10][11] - Central bank gold purchases are anticipated to remain a long-term strategic behavior, aimed at optimizing foreign exchange reserves and hedging against global uncertainties [8]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a strong upward trend driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and rising geopolitical risks, with both gold and silver futures reaching historical highs [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 24, the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold futures contract AU2512 closed at 860 CNY per gram, up 1.03%, setting a new historical record [1]. - The silver futures contract AG2513 closed at 10,397 CNY per kilogram, up 0.83%, also reaching a new high since its listing [1]. - Internationally, the London spot gold price has surged to 3,768 USD per ounce [1]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The primary drivers for the surge in precious metals prices include: 1. The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, with expectations of two more cuts this year, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [1]. 2. Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, are increasing global market demand for safe-haven assets [1]. 3. Continuous gold purchases by central banks and strong industrial demand for silver are providing solid fundamental support for precious metal prices [1][2]. Group 3: Central Bank Activity - Despite high gold prices, central banks globally maintained a net buying stance in July, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold reserves for ten consecutive months, reaching 2,098.43 tons by the end of August [2]. - In response to inflation concerns, European and American investors are accelerating their allocation to gold, with global physical gold ETFs seeing a net inflow of 5.5 billion USD in August [2]. Group 4: Market Risks and Recommendations - There is a technical correction pressure in the precious metals market due to the recent price increases, with potential short-term volatility if profit-taking occurs following hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials [4]. - The upcoming "National Day" holiday adds uncertainty to the market, as historical data shows no clear trend in gold and silver prices post-holiday, with a near 50% probability of price fluctuations [4]. - Analysts recommend that investors adjust their positions before the holiday, with suggestions to adopt a light position strategy, retaining a small number of gold contracts while advising to clear silver positions to mitigate risks during the long holiday [4].

Core Viewpoint - Since the end of August, gold and silver futures prices have been on a continuous rise due to heightened geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with gold prices reaching historical records and silver prices approaching historical highs [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market maintains an optimistic long-term outlook for precious metals despite warnings from several institutions about holding positions during the upcoming National Day holiday [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has begun, with expectations for two more cuts within the year, serving as a core driver for gold and silver prices [1] - Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are increasing global risk aversion, further supporting precious metal prices [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Factors - Continuous gold purchasing demand from global central banks and the strong industrial application prospects for silver are providing price support in the precious metals market [1] - Technical correction pressure exists for precious metals prices after a series of highs, indicating potential volatility in the short term [1] Group 3: Potential Risks - Recent hawkish signals from multiple Federal Reserve officials may lead to profit-taking by bullish investors, which could amplify short-term price fluctuations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Since late August, gold and silver futures prices have been on a continuous upward trend due to rising geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with gold prices reaching historical records and silver prices approaching historical highs [1] Group 1: Market Drivers - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has begun, with market expectations for two more rate cuts within the year, serving as a core driver for gold and silver prices [1] - Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are increasing global risk aversion, further supporting precious metal prices [1] - Continuous gold purchasing demand from global central banks and strong industrial application prospects for silver are providing price support in the precious metals market [1] Group 2: Market Risks - Despite the optimistic long-term outlook for precious metals, several institutions have begun to highlight the risks associated with holding positions during the upcoming National Day holiday [1] - Following a series of price increases, there is inherent technical correction pressure on precious metal prices [1] - Recent hawkish signals from multiple Federal Reserve officials may trigger profit-taking among bullish investors, potentially increasing short-term volatility [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Commodity Weekly Report - Report Date: September 22, 2025 - Analyst: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03090299 [1][5] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market rose 0.24% last week, with the black sector leading the gain at 2.27%. The Fed's 25bp rate cut and relatively stable Sino-US economic and trade negotiations create a neutral and warm macro - environment. With the support of the consumer peak season and pre - holiday restocking, the commodity market may run stably in the short term. Precious metals are likely to remain easy to rise and difficult to fall, while the short - term trend of other sectors varies [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: The commodity market rose 0.24% last week, with the black sector up 2.27%, energy and chemicals up 1.42%, and precious metals, agricultural products, and non - ferrous metals down 0.8%, 0.78%, and 0.66% respectively. The top - rising varieties were coking coal, coke, and glass, while the top - falling ones were live pigs, soybean meal, and tin. The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market rebounded, and only the black and agricultural product sectors had net capital inflows [2][7]. - **Market Data Charts**: There are multiple charts showing the performance of different sectors and varieties, including the rise and fall of the Nanhua Index, the weekly contribution rate of each sector of the China Securities Commodity Index, the fluctuation of each variety's main contract, the performance of commodity - related sector indexes, the precipitation funds of each commodity sector, the weekly precipitation fund changes of each variety, the average trading - to - holding ratio of each variety, macro - high - frequency data, relevant ratios, and black - industry chain ratios [8][10][12] 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: After the Fed's rate cut, the sector initially corrected due to profit - taking but rebounded on the dovish remarks of the new Fed governor. It is likely to remain easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: After the Fed's rate cut, the previous bullish sentiment cooled, but the restart of rate cuts still provides short - term support. With the pre - holiday restocking and improving macro - sentiment, the sector may run stably in the short term [3]. - **Black Sector**: The apparent demand for rebar improved, production continued to decline, and inventory decreased slightly. Steel mills have pre - holiday restocking needs, but low profit per ton restricts further production resumption. The iron ore port inventory decreased, and the coking coal's capacity expansion is less likely. The sector fluctuates with policy expectations [3]. - **Energy Sector**: Oil prices rose and then fell last week. The Fed's 25bp rate cut did not bring unexpected benefits, and the supply - demand contradiction after the peak oil - consumption season will gradually intensify. Geopolitical factors may cause short - term supply disruptions, but the premium space is limited. Trump's statement to lower oil prices also affects market sentiment. Oil prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. - **Chemical Sector**: For polyester, the weaving load decreased slightly, and filament inventory continued to accumulate. The downstream has pre - holiday stocking expectations, but cost support is weak. Building materials such as glass and PVC still face high - supply and low - demand situations, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday restocking demand [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: The actual export demand for US soybeans was poor, and the Sino - US call did not mention agricultural product trade. The overseas palm oil export data in the first half of September was inconsistent. The short - term domestic supply of oils and fats is relatively loose, and the sector may run in a volatile manner [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - The report provides information on various commodity ETFs, including net value, weekly return, scale, share change, trading volume, trading volume change, and underlying assets. Gold - related ETFs have different performance in terms of return and scale change, and other commodity ETFs such as energy - chemical and agricultural - product - related ones also show different trends [41]

Group 1: Oil Market - Trump urged countries to stop purchasing oil from Russia, stating that a decrease in oil prices would lead to Putin withdrawing from the Ukraine conflict [4] - During Trump's remarks, international oil prices saw an increase in decline, with WTI crude futures and Brent crude futures both dropping over 1.1% at one point [4] - As of the market close, WTI crude settled down nearly 0.75% at $63.57 per barrel, while Brent crude settled down 0.75% at $67.44 per barrel [4] Group 2: Precious Metals Market - The precious metals market experienced increased volatility ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting, with London gold spot prices surpassing $3,700 per ounce before significantly retreating [6] - Analysts noted that the Fed's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was in line with market expectations, leading to a short-term price correction in precious metals [7] - The market's risk appetite, the U.S. dollar index, and global economic growth expectations are influencing short-term trends in precious metals prices [7] Group 3: Future Outlook for Precious Metals - Analysts generally expect precious metal prices to maintain high levels in the short term, with a long-term bullish trend remaining intact [9] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are contributing to heightened market risk aversion, which supports international gold prices [8] - Investors are advised to consider accumulating long positions in precious metals during price corrections, while remaining aware of potential risks such as decreased geopolitical tensions and a recovering U.S. job market [9]

Group 1 - International precious metal futures experienced a general decline, with COMEX gold futures down 0.82% to $3694.60 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 2.15% to $41.99 per ounce [1] - Analysts suggest that the shift in major central banks' monetary policies may further weaken the dollar's attractiveness, potentially providing support for the precious metals market [1] Group 2 - Recent reports indicate significant inflows into U.S. gold ETFs, totaling approximately $367 billion, while Chinese gold ETFs saw outflows exceeding $26.5 billion, marking China as the only region with notable reductions [3] - Retail investors are marginally increasing their gold holdings, while institutions are reducing their positions, reflecting a divergence in sentiment [3] - Speculative net long positions in gold have rapidly decreased, indicating a weakening bullish sentiment among institutions [3] - Although COMEX gold and London spot gold prices have reached historical highs, Shanghai gold has not yet surpassed its previous peak, suggesting a lack of enthusiasm in China compared to other global regions [3] - Hong Kong has announced five measures to accelerate the establishment of an international gold trading market, aiming to expand gold storage and build a regional gold reserve hub with a target of over 2000 tons in three years [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Supported by the main logic of the Fed's September interest rate cut, the trading sentiment in the precious metals market was highly optimistic, and the gold prices in both domestic and international markets continued to hit record highs. However, there was pressure for a phased correction due to overbought behavior, and the market entered a high - level shock [8]. - The probability of a September interest rate cut has risen to 99%, and the expectation has been largely digested by the market. In the short term, there may be a need for a correction. The market will focus on the US August non - farm payrolls report. In the long term, the precious metals market is still supported by the marginal damage to the US dollar's credit and hedging demand [8]. - It is recommended to wait and see for now, and consider light - position layout at low levels after a correction. Specific price ranges are provided for different contracts [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Influenced by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, US trade deficit, PMI data, and employment data, gold prices reached a record high this week. But since Thursday, the upward momentum of gold and silver prices has slowed down, and the market has entered a high - level shock [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The probability of a September interest rate cut is 99%, and the expectation has been digested. There may be a short - term correction. The market focuses on the non - farm payrolls report. In the long run, the market is supported by the US dollar's credit and hedging demand [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see for now, and consider light - position layout at low levels after a correction. Provide price ranges for different contracts [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of September 5, 2025, COMEX silver was at $41.39 per ounce, up 1.56% week - on - week; COMEX gold was at $3606.50 per ounce, up 2.56% week - on - week. The Shanghai silver and gold futures contracts also had significant increases [11]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of September 4, 2025, the net holdings of foreign - market gold ETFs increased, while those of silver ETFs decreased slightly [12]. - **Speculative Positions**: As of August 26, 2025, COMEX gold speculative net positions increased, and silver speculative net positions decreased [17]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of August 26, 2025, the week - on - week increase in CFTC gold long positions and the decrease in short positions [22]. - **Basis Changes**: As of September 5, 2025, the gold basis in the Shanghai market weakened, and the silver basis strengthened [27]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of September 4, 2025, both gold and silver inventories increased [32]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand - **Silver Industry**: As of July 2025, silver imports decreased slightly, and silver ore imports rebounded significantly. The downstream semiconductor demand for silver drove the growth of integrated circuit production [38][43]. - **Silver Supply and Demand**: The silver market was in a tight - balance pattern, and the supply - demand gap was narrowing year by year [48][54]. - **Gold Industry**: As of September 4, 2025, the gold recycling price and jewelry price increased with the rise of gold prices [58]. - **Gold Supply and Demand**: In Q2 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs declined slightly, and the central bank's gold - buying pace slowed down, causing a marginal decline in gold jewelry manufacturing demand [62]. 3.4 Macro and Options - **Macro Data**: The US dollar rebounded from oversold levels this week, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield remained under pressure. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread narrowed slightly, the CBOE gold volatility increased significantly, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio continued to decline. The 10 - year US break - even inflation rate decreased. In August 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 2.18 tons [65][69][73][77].