International News - Precious metals prices saw significant increases, with spot gold breaking multiple key levels, ultimately surpassing $4690 per ounce, marking a daily increase of 2.06% [1][8] - New York futures gold also rose, breaking through $4690 per ounce, with a daily increase of 2.08% [1][8] - Spot silver experienced a notable rise, surpassing $94 per ounce, with a daily increase of 4.40%; New York futures silver showed even stronger performance, with a daily increase of 6.17% [1][9] - In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin fell below $94,000, with a daily decrease of 1.27% [2][10] - In the energy market, WTI crude oil dropped to below $59 per barrel, with a daily decrease of 1.13% [3][11] - Geopolitical and trade policy developments indicate that several EU countries are considering imposing tariffs on $93 billion worth of goods imported from the US, as a countermeasure to previous US tariffs [3][11] - A report from EU diplomats states that the retaliatory tariffs will automatically take effect on February 6 [4][12] Domestic News - The macro policy and regional development section of the People's Daily highlights several important topics, including Zhejiang's focus on technological innovation, the progress of Hainan's free trade port, and the effectiveness of agricultural policies [6][14] - Shanghai's "14th Five-Year" planning proposal aims to establish a global RMB asset allocation center and risk management center, enhance cross-border and offshore financial services, and explore RMB foreign exchange futures trading [6][14] - The proposal also emphasizes the development of green and smart consumption, promoting the upgrade of commodity consumption, and encouraging innovative consumption models to build the "Shanghai Consumption" brand [6][14] - Additionally, Shanghai plans to create a comprehensive media outreach matrix and establish a new international financial media group to deepen international cultural exchanges [6][15]

白银在刚刚过去的四个交易日大举上涨逾20%后买入回调轨迹，除了美国政府暂缓关税导致美国市场暂时避免抢购白银 这一宏观层面影响，绝大部分跌势逻辑可能源于白银庞大的投机资金们获利回吐以及彭博大宗商品指数(BCOM)再平衡举 措带来的数十亿美元抛售压力。 另一热门贵金属黄金近两日也呈现下跌，但是跌幅非常狭窄，周五黄金现货价格仅小幅下跌0.4%，近两日累计跌幅仅仅 0.6%。根据最新的 Markets Pulse 调查显示，受益于全球央行持续购金需求强劲等多重利好因素驱动的黄金上涨势头将在 一月份之后持续，这意味着过去一年暴涨70%且屡创新高的金价有望持续上涨。 特朗普政府针对美联储的再度威胁可谓在近期大幅提振了贵金属市场，同时也重新唤起了"抛售美国"交易，推动一些机 构投资者抛售美债，进而将更多资金投入黄金这一传统避险资产。 对冲基金与投机势力将白银看涨押注削减至22个月低点 智通财经获悉，杠杆对冲基金管理人以及更广泛的投机者阵营在特朗普政府决定暂时不对包括白银在内的关键矿物征收 进口关税前夕，已将它们对白银的看涨多头押注仓位削减至近两年来的最低点区域，这也解释了为何白银现货与期货价 格近两日波动异常剧烈——即此前 ...

Group 1 - Silver prices experienced significant volatility, with a drop of up to 7%, falling from a historical high of $93 per ounce to $88.3 per ounce, highlighting the "short squeeze" risk in the market [1] - The current "open interest" in the silver market is approximately 590 million ounces, while the available inventory for physical delivery is only about 50 million ounces, resulting in a coverage ratio of around 7% [1] - Analysts indicate that the silver market is under pressure as the delivery month approaches, with short positions facing potential challenges if long positions opt for actual delivery [1] Group 2 - Recent increases in silver prices are driven by two main factors: lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data for December 2025, which has led to increased bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and escalating tensions between the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve, raising concerns about policy stability [2] - The market is characterized by strong momentum driven by macroeconomic risks, structural tensions, and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to increased investment in precious metals as safe havens [2] - Analysts predict that the precious metals market will maintain a strong trend, with gold as a core safe-haven asset and silver expected to perform strongly as a gauge of market risk appetite [2] Group 3 - Expectations for silver prices in 2026 include "high volatility and upward movement," with targets above $100 per ounce due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances and increased demand from strategic industries such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles [3] - The re-evaluation of silver's strategic resource value, combined with expectations of a loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, is expected to enhance silver's price elasticity and volatility [3] - Global geopolitical uncertainties are anticipated to attract investment for hedging against inflation, providing a premium for silver as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 4 - Financial institutions, including UBS and Bank of America, have raised their price forecasts for silver, with UBS noting that increased trading activity in the Chinese market could drive prices higher in the first half of the year [4] - Analysts recommend a strategy of maintaining core positions in gold while tactically participating in high-volatility assets like silver, platinum, and palladium, advising caution due to their unpredictable nature [4]

黄金和白银在金属市场的广泛涨势中攀升至纪录高位，美国司法部威胁要对美联储提起刑事诉讼，再度 引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 "我们认为对美联储干预力度的加剧将成为2026年贵金属市场关键的潜在利多变量，"Julius Baer Group Ltd．的Carsten Menke表示。他还表示，规模更小的白银市场对利率和美元走势更为敏感，因此"可能会 对这类担忧作出更为强烈的反应"。 责任编辑：王许宁 黄金和白银在金属市场的广泛涨势中攀升至纪录高位，美国司法部威胁要对美联储提起刑事诉讼，再度 引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧。 "我们认为对美联储干预力度的加剧将成为2026年贵金属市场关键的潜在利多变量，"Julius Baer Group Ltd．的Carsten Menke表示。他还表示，规模更小的白银市场对利率和美元走势更为敏感，因此"可能会 对这类担忧作出更为强烈的反应"。 周一，白银价格一度大涨7.3%，至每盎司约85.70美元。 金价升破每盎司4，600美元，白银价格也突破85美元。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔发表声明称，潜在诉 讼"应该放在政府的威胁和持续施压的更广泛 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market continues its strong trend. The silver squeeze has spread to other precious and non - ferrous metals, with high short - term volatility. The supply shortage of platinum provides key support to its price, while the demand for palladium is weakening, turning the market from short of supply to surplus. In the short - term, the situation between the US and Venezuela may support platinum and palladium prices. In the long - run, the "platinum strong, palladium weak" trend may continue. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum's main contract closing price is 622.80 yuan/gram, up 27.70 yuan; palladium's is 505.10 yuan/gram, up 17.50 yuan. - Platinum's main contract open interest is 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; palladium's is 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of platinum spot (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 612.94 yuan/gram, up 20.12 yuan; the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium is 445.00 yuan/gram, up 16.00 yuan. - The basis of platinum's main contract is - 9.86 yuan/gram, down 7.58 yuan; that of palladium is - 60.10 yuan/gram, down 1.50 yuan. [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Platinum's CFTC non - commercial long positions are 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; palladium's are 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts. - The estimated total supply of platinum in 2025 is 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; that of palladium is 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. - The estimated total demand for platinum in 2025 is 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; that of palladium is 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons. [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 98.74, up 0.14; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.88%, down 0.03%. - The VIX volatility index is 15.38, up 0.63. [2] 3.5 Industry News - The US Supreme Court didn't rule on Trump's tariffs on January 9, with the next announcement on January 14. The government is ready to re - impose tariffs if the ruling goes against. - The Fed's January 2026 rate - cut expectation is dashed. The US non - farm payrolls in December 2025 increased by 50,000, lower than expected. The unemployment rate in December dropped to 4.4%. - The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in January is 54, a four - month high. The inflation expectation for the next year is 4.2%. - According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in January is 4.4%, and 95.6% for unchanged rates. By March, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 27.6%, 71.3% for unchanged rates, and 1.1% for a 50 - basis - point cut. [2] 3.6 Key Points to Follow - January 13, 21:30: US December unadjusted CPI year - on - year, PPI year - on - year, and core retail sales month - on - month. - January 15, 01:00: Atlanta Fed GDPNow economic growth rate. - January 15, 20:30: European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting minutes. [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the cumulative increase of spot gold was 64%, and spot silver soared 147%, becoming the best - performing commodity category of the year. In January 2026, the core concerns of the precious metal market are the successor of Powell, the December non - farm payroll data to be released on January 9, and the potential sanctions of the US on Chinese mining enterprises in South America. The core macro - logic supporting the gold price in 2026 will continue, and the resilience of the gold price will support the silver price [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Overseas Main Interest Rates - The market has factored in two interest rate cuts in 2026, the first in April and the second in October. After the release of the December FOMC meeting minutes, traders' bets on the two interest rate cuts in 2026 remained unchanged. There were significant differences in the December meeting minutes [8]. - Last week, the yields of US Treasury bonds of various maturities diverged. The 30 - year UST yield rose 5.52bps to 4.87%, the 10 - year UST yield rose 6.3bps to 4.19%, and the 2 - year UST yield fell 0.16bps to 3.47%. The yield curve steepened. The term premium of long - term interest rates is at a relatively high level since 2025 [11]. - The use of ONRRP last week was $5.67 billion, a decrease of $4.88 billion from the previous value. The Fed's reserve balance last Wednesday was $2.853 trillion, a decrease of $128 billion from the previous week [17]. - As of December 23, the positions of long - and short - term US Treasury bond interest rates were bearish. The non - commercial net short positions of 2 - year UST futures increased by 11,570 lots to 1,362,703 lots, and the non - commercial net short positions of 10 - year UST futures increased by 72,262 lots to 742,370 lots. As of the week of December 15, the sentiment of JPM Treasury net long investors was 21, a significant rebound from the previous week [21]. - The yields of 5 - year and 10 - year TIPS diverged. The 5 - year TIPS yield remained flat at 1.46% compared with the previous week, and the 10 - year TIPS yield rose 3bp to 1.94% [28]. Dollar Index and Liquidity - Last week, the dollar index and the gold price moved in opposite directions. The gold price fell 4.4%, and the dollar index rose 0.4% to 98.5, with their rolling correlation increasing. The dollar appreciated 0.2% against the yen, 0.5% against the euro, and 0.3% against the pound [34]. - As of December 23, the total position of the dollar index increased. The non - commercial long positions increased by 793 lots to 16,700 lots, and the non - commercial short positions increased by 219 lots to 21,000 lots, with the long - side force dominant. In terms of position ratio, the non - commercial long position ratio was 59%, unchanged from the previous week, and the short position ratio was 73%, a decrease from the previous week [38]. - Last week, the 3 - month Basis Swap of the yen and the euro increased month - on - month, and the financing cost of offshore dollar liquidity decreased [41]. Inflation High - Frequency Indicators - Last week, the copper - to - gold ratio rose to 2.88, with the copper price rising and the gold price falling, indicating a marginal increase in global aggregate demand momentum [48]. Price Ratios and Volatility - The gold - to - silver ratio fluctuated higher because the decline of the gold price was smaller than that of the silver price last week. The gold - to - copper ratio decreased because the gold price fell and the copper price rose. The gold - to - oil ratio decreased month - on - month because the oil price rose and the gold price fell [57]. - From the perspective of rolling correlation, the correlation between gold and crude oil and copper decreased, while the correlation between gold and the dollar index increased [65]. - During the rapid rise of Shanghai silver last week, the price difference between the domestic and foreign silver markets reached a maximum of about - 400, significantly deviating from the equilibrium level, and then gradually declined [70]. Inventory and Positions - In terms of inventory, last week, the COMEX gold inventory was 36.403 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 244,000 ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory was 449.774 million ounces, a month - on - month decrease of 1.579 million ounces. The SHFE gold inventory was about 97.7 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.9 tons, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 182.9 tons to 669.5 tons [75]. - The SPDR gold ETF position decreased by 6 tons to 1,065 tons, and the current position scale is near the lower median of the past 10 years. The SLV silver ETF position increased by 53.6 tons to 16,444 tons, currently at a medium - to - high level [80]. - The total COMEX gold position increased by 21,010 lots to 492,000 lots. Among them, the non - commercial long positions increased by 9,241 lots to 290,000 lots, and the short positions increased by 2,519 lots to 49,000 lots, indicating an increase in the long - side force of gold allocation. In terms of position ratio, the non - commercial long position ratio decreased to around 59%, and the non - commercial short position ratio remained around 10% [86]. - The total COMEX silver position increased by 2,789 lots to 156,000 lots. Among them, the non - commercial long positions decreased by 791 lots to 55,000 lots, and the short positions decreased by 323 lots to 19,000 lots, indicating an increase in the short - side force of silver allocation. In terms of position ratio, the non - commercial long position ratio decreased to around 35.5%, and the non - commercial short position ratio decreased to around 12.4% [92].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in silver futures prices on the COMEX, with the main contract reaching $81 per ounce on January 7, 2026, marking a daily increase of 5.67% [1] - This upward trend in silver prices follows a strong performance in the precious metals market, where the international spot silver price rose by 4.42% to $80.01 per ounce on January 6 [1] - Additionally, the spot platinum price also saw a substantial rise, exceeding 7% to reach $2,435.20 per ounce [1]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12. 31」 贵金属市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 ◆ 本周观点：本周贵金属市场高位波动显著加剧，白银价格因集中获利了结情绪而大幅回调，下跌外 溢影响亦传导至其他贵金属及部分有色金属品种，虽然周三盘中价格逐步企稳并有所反弹，整体波 动幅度明显放大，多空博弈加剧。宏观方面，美联储12月会议纪要显示，FOMC官员降息立场分歧加 剧。在本次会议下调利率区间后，可能需要在一段时间内保持目标利率区间不变。若通胀逐步下降， 大多数官员支持进一步降息。前期的非农就业报告以及CPI通胀数据弱于预期，提振市场对于2026年 美联储展开两次以上降息的预期。此外，准备金余额已经下降到充足的水平，美联储或重启扩表以 保证充足的准备金供应，提振市场流动性预期。在流动性趋于宽松且降息预期仍存的背景下，贵金 属中期看多逻辑尚未发生明显松动，中 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp correction in gold and silver prices this week has weakened the overall sentiment in the precious metals market. The main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have turned from strong to weak, with two consecutive daily limit - down moves. This correction is a phased cooling of the over - heated previous market. In the short term, the platinum and palladium markets may enter a high - level consolidation phase. However, the accumulated squeeze - out pressure is difficult to resolve quickly, and the tight spot market may support price rebounds. [7] - In the long - term, platinum may see price support from the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit, and the expansion of long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new energy vehicles, and its market is shifting from supply shortage to surplus. But the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support the price, and its current low price may make it a cost - effective choice again. [7] - For price ranges, the resistance level for London platinum is $2300 per ounce, and the support level is $1800 per ounce. For London palladium, the resistance level is $1700 per ounce, and the support level is $1400 per ounce. [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - The sharp correction in gold and silver prices has weakened the sentiment in the precious metals market. The main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have turned weak, and this correction is a cooling of the over - heated market. In the short term, the market may consolidate, but the tight spot market may lead to price rebounds. [7] - Platinum has long - term price support factors, while palladium's demand is expected to weaken, but interest - rate cut expectations may support its price. [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The sentiment in the precious metals market has weakened, and platinum and palladium prices have significantly corrected from their highs this week. As of December 31, 2025, the main palladium contract 2606 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was at 425.20 yuan per gram, down 17.54% week - on - week, and the main platinum contract 2606 was at 527.25 yuan per gram, down 25.24% week - on - week. [8][12] - As of December 16, 2025, the net long positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium showed a large divergence. The net long position of NYMEX platinum was 28,564 contracts, up 12.82% month - on - month, and that of NYMEX palladium was - 2340 contracts, down 36.05% month - on - month. [13][17] - The basis of the main NYMEX platinum and palladium contracts has weakened this week. [18] - As of December 24, 2025, NYMEX platinum inventory was 645,466.92 ounces, up 3.32% month - on - month, and NYMEX palladium inventory was 195,833.87 ounces, up 4.81% month - on - month. [26] - The price ratio of NYMEX platinum to gold has rebounded recently. [27] - The rolling correlation coefficient between platinum and gold prices has increased. [31] - The positive correlation between platinum prices and NYMEX platinum inventory and the US dollar index has weakened marginally. [35] 3.3 Industry Supply - Demand Situation - As of November 2025, both the import and export volumes of platinum decreased. [39] - The demand for platinum in automotive exhaust catalysts has weakened marginally. [45] - The total global demand for platinum and palladium is showing a moderate downward trend. [50] - The global supply of platinum and palladium has declined. [55] 3.4 Macroeconomic and Options - As of Wednesday, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield have risen slightly. [58]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility, with gold, silver, and platinum prices declining sharply after a period of substantial gains, driven by profit-taking and reduced geopolitical risks [6][7][11]. Price Movements - Gold prices fell by 1.50%, dropping below $4300 per ounce, while silver saw a decline of over 7%, currently down by 5.02% [1][3]. - The main silver futures contract dropped over 5%, currently at 17074 yuan per kilogram, while platinum futures fell by 14%, now priced at 527.25 yuan per gram [3]. Market Dynamics - The recent surge in precious metal prices, particularly silver, saw it rise from around $50 to over $80 per ounce, with a monthly increase of approximately 150% [6]. - As of last week, gold had increased by about 70% for the year, while silver's rise exceeded 150%, with other metals like platinum and palladium also seeing gains over 100% [6]. Factors Influencing Price Changes - The decline in precious metal prices is attributed to profit-taking after previous gains, reduced geopolitical risks, and increased margin requirements by major exchanges [7][8]. - Financial institutions are under pressure to settle accounts as the year-end approaches, leading to selling at high prices, which has put downward pressure on prices [7]. Future Outlook - Short-term volatility in precious metals is expected to continue, with silver and platinum facing larger adjustments due to liquidity constraints [8]. - Long-term prospects remain positive, with expectations of continued demand from central banks and a potential shift to a "weak dollar" environment supporting prices [9][10]. Central Bank Activity - Central banks are projected to significantly increase gold purchases, with estimates suggesting an average monthly purchase of 70 tons by 2026, compared to 17 tons before 2022 [9]. - Emerging market central banks are strategically increasing their gold reserves, indicating a strong demand for gold [9]. Market Sentiment - The precious metals market is increasingly influenced by investor sentiment and liquidity, with emotional factors becoming critical in price determination [12]. - The market is experiencing a "bungee jump" effect, reflecting rapid price fluctuations that investors should be cautious of [11][12].