Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA monthly report on soybeans is slightly bullish, with expected lower production, stable exports and domestic consumption. However, short - term supply of US soybeans and domestic soybeans is expected to be large, and the prices are likely to be volatile in the short term, requiring additional stimuli for further upward movement [2][5]. - For palm oil, the significant increase in production and inventory in April puts downward pressure on prices in the medium - term. But the rise in crude oil and expected US soybean oil policies provide some support. In the short term, prices may be volatile or slightly bullish due to the upcoming RVO rule [6][9]. - For sugar, the supply shortage situation is expected to turn into a slight surplus in the 2025/26 season. The price of raw sugar may hit a new low in the second and third quarters, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to weaken later [10][11]. - For cotton, the market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The substantial progress in Sino - US negotiations will boost short - term prices, and future focus should be on marginal changes in inventory [13][14]. - For eggs, the supply pressure is large, and the mid - term strategy is to sell on rebounds [16][17]. - For pigs, the spot price has limited short - term fluctuations, and the futures price has a limited downward space. It is advisable to short on short - term rebounds caused by sentiment [19][20]. 3. Summary by Category Soybeans/Meadow - **Important Information**: Overnight US soybeans rose due to the easing of the trade war. The USDA monthly report estimated a slight reduction in the new US soybean production in the 25/26 season, stable crushing volume, a slight decline in exports, and a slight reduction in inventory. The expected RVO plan from the EPA in two weeks also supports US soybeans. The opening rate of domestic soybean oil mills increased, leading to a slight decline in the domestic soybean meal spot price. The estimated soybean arrivals in May, June, and July are 919.75 million tons, 1.1 billion tons, and 1.05 billion tons respectively [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Near - term, US soybeans and domestic soybeans are expected to have large supplies but low valuations, so they are likely to be volatile. Further upward breakthrough of US soybeans requires additional stimuli from biodiesel and production [5]. Oils - **Important Information**: The MPOB report showed that the Malaysian palm oil inventory in April rose to 1.86 million tons. From May 1 - 5, 2025, the Malaysian palm oil yield, oil extraction rate, and production increased significantly. From May 1 - 10, the export volume decreased by 9% compared to the same period last month. The rise in crude oil and expected US soybean oil policies support the price, but if the palm oil production continues to recover rapidly, the price will be under pressure. The industry association's request to greatly increase RVO will boost the valuation of US soybean oil [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The downward movement of the crude oil center and the obvious recovery of palm oil production will put downward pressure on oil prices in the medium - term. However, the upcoming RVO rule may boost the sentiment of the oil sector in the short term, so the prices may be volatile or slightly bullish [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell slightly on Tuesday. The analysis agency Green Pool estimated a slight surplus of 1.15 million tons in the global sugar supply in the 2025/26 season, with an expected 5.3% increase in production and a 0.95% increase in consumption [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The large - scale delivery of the May raw sugar contract at a relatively low price and the start of the new crushing season in the central - southern region of Brazil will ease the supply shortage. The domestic sugar price can maintain a high - level shock for now, but it is likely to weaken later [11]. Cotton - **Important Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose and then fell on Tuesday. The USDA monthly report was bearish for US cotton but showed a 710,000 - ton reduction in global production, mainly from China and Australia. As of May 11, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 28% [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: The substantial progress in Sino - US negotiations will boost short - term cotton prices. The domestic cotton spinning industry has entered the off - season, with weak consumption and low imports, resulting in a slight reduction in inventory. Future focus should be on marginal changes in inventory [14]. Eggs - **Important Information**: Most egg prices in the country rose, and the downstream sales were mostly stable. Most traders' confidence in the future market declined [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The post - holiday inventory reduction was less than expected, and the supply pressure was large. The mid - term strategy is to sell on rebounds [17]. Pigs - **Important Information**: The domestic pig price was mainly stable, with some areas showing a weak trend. The market sales were average, and there was a game between supply and demand [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price has limited short - term fluctuations, and the futures price has a limited downward space. It is advisable to short on short - term rebounds caused by sentiment [20].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-5-13） 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平继续将保持偏高水平，总体供需宽松，港口库存 增加，市场传言将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价858，基差139；日照港巴粗现货折合盘面价830，基差112，现货升水 期货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14764.71万吨，环比减少，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方,20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓空减；偏空 6、预期：贸易战有缓和迹象，市场情绪回暖，但国内需求降低，进口增加，价格难以上行，震荡思路 I2509：710-730震荡 利多： 利空： 铁矿石港口现货价格 铁矿石期现基差 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年05月13日 【原油】 【锌】 中美贸易谈判结果超预期,市场风险情绪明显好转,沪锌低位反弹。就具体关税税率而言,国内商 品转口贸易利润仍大于直接对美出口,实际对消费端的提振预计有限。同时美国锌精矿进口至国内 的关税压力大减,成本端支撑转弱。基本面仍显供强需弱,延续反弹空配看法。 中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明大超预期,本次关税降级对中美原油及油品贸易流并无直接影响，而 是进一步延续了上周美英贸易协议以来的贸易战阶段性缓和、经济衰退担忧修复主题。需求现实层 面同样具有韧性,临近北美夏季出行旺季,美国汽油表需相对坚挺,加之尼日利亚丹格特炼厂RFCC 装置检修的供应抗动，全球轻质馏分产品库存屡创新低,海外汽油裂解、综合炼化利润迎来修复。 但考虑到OPEC+已进入快速增产周期,近期美伊核谈判、俄乌和谈亦均有乐观信号释放,她练缓和 大背景下供应制裁风险弱化,油价反弹空间亦不过分乐观,布伦特关注70美元/桶压力位、S0关注 510元/桶压力位。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属延续回落。近期贸易谈判和地缘纷争交织,昨日中美发布联合声明降低对等关税,市场 反应 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Trade war easing leads to a significant drop in gold prices and a fall in the gold - silver ratio below 100. The logic of de - dollarization remains unchanged, with short - term avoidance recommended and mid - to long - term opportunities for building long positions [1]. - For basic metals, copper is recommended for buying on dips; aluminum may be bullish in the short - term, and buying on dips is advised; alumina is recommended for shorting on rallies; zinc is expected to be weak in the medium - term; lead is likely to trade in a range with a slightly higher bottom; industrial silicon suggests waiting and watching; and tin is recommended for buying on dips [1][2][3]. - In the black industry, for steel, hold short positions and relevant arbitrage positions; for iron ore, try short positions in the 2509 contract; and for coking coal, it is advisable to wait and watch [4][5]. - In the agricultural products market, soybeans are expected to be volatile, corn futures prices will consolidate, sugar may be bullish in the short - term and bearish later, cotton suggests waiting and watching, palm oil should focus on relevant reports and policies, eggs and pork prices are expected to be weak, and apples suggest waiting and watching [6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, LLDPE, PP, and styrene are expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term; rubber suggests waiting and watching in the short - term and shorting in the medium - term; and crude oil is recommended for shorting on rallies [8][9]. - In the shipping industry, the short - term outlook for European line container shipping is bullish, but be cautious about chasing high prices in the 06 contract [10][11]. 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Overnight, precious metal prices dropped significantly due to trade war easing. The gold - silver ratio fell below 100 [1]. - **News**: China and the US cancelled 91% of additional tariffs and suspended 24% of counter - tariffs. Traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, and Goldman Sachs postponed the expected rate - cut time to December [1]. - **Economic Data**: The US government's April fiscal budget surplus increased by 23% year - on - year to $258.4 billion, and customs tariff revenue reached a record high of $16 billion [1]. - **Inventory Data**: Domestic gold ETFs had outflows. COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged at 1217 tons, and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory remained at 15 tons. London's April gold inventory increased slightly. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 9 tons to 924 tons, and India's March silver imports decreased to about 180 tons [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Avoid in the short - term due to trade war easing, and consider building long positions in the mid - to long - term. For silver, short on rallies or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Basic Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated slightly higher yesterday, but were constrained by the strong US dollar index [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of copper ore remains tight. Domestic inventory increased slightly, and the back structure weakened [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips [1]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum contract rose 1.66% yesterday [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased slightly as smelters maintained high - load production, and demand improved as the operating rate of aluminum products increased [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The export of aluminum products may improve, and aluminum prices may be bullish in the short - term. Buy on dips [1]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the 2509 contract rose 0.57% yesterday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased as refineries carried out maintenance and production cuts, while demand increased as electrolytic aluminum smelters maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price rebounded in the short - term, but the long - term supply - demand surplus remains. Short on rallies [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the 2506 contract rose 1.35% yesterday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure remains as new smelter capacity increases and imports rise. Consumption decreased in May due to tariff impacts and weak domestic demand [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the medium - term [2]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The 2506 contract rose 1.13% yesterday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply may tighten as secondary lead production becomes unprofitable and primary lead plants plan maintenance. Consumption is weak due to the off - season and export difficulties [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price bottom may rise slightly, but it will mainly trade in a range [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The 2506 contract rose 115 yuan yesterday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is strong and demand is weak. Sichuan's production recovered, and Yunnan reduced production. Demand from the polysilicon and organosilicon industries is limited [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and watch as the weekly production has declined [2]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: The 2507 contract rose 1020 yuan yesterday due to short - covering [2][3]. - **Marginal Changes**: The US postponed a 24% tariff on "reciprocal tariffs" for 90 days, and the comprehensive tariff rate for power batteries and energy - storage batteries decreased. The impact on lithium demand is controllable [2][3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand is expected to be more balanced in May. Supply decreased slightly, and demand from the domestic new energy vehicle market was lower than expected. Inventory decreased slightly last week [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be bullish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term. Hold short positions or take short - term profits [2][3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The PS2506 contract rose 620 yuan yesterday [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to be flat or slightly lower in May. Demand from downstream wafer factories is limited [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions as the number of registered warehouse receipts is much smaller than the open interest. Pay attention to the willingness of enterprises to deliver when the price reaches 40,000 yuan [3]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices fluctuated slightly higher yesterday [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The reduction of tariffs between China and the US boosted the consumer electronics industry, which is positive for tin prices. Domestic warehouse receipts decreased, and London's inventory increased [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips [3]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The 2510 contract of rebar rose 65 yuan yesterday [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar inventory decreased, and the supply - demand balance is seasonal. The impact of the Sino - US trade negotiation has been mostly digested [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions and relevant arbitrage positions. The reference range for RB10 is 3040 - 3110 yuan [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract of iron ore rose 22.5 yuan yesterday [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased slightly, and demand remained strong. However, the profit of steel mills narrowed, and the medium - term supply surplus remains. The impact of the Sino - US trade negotiation has been mostly digested [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try short positions in the 2509 contract. The reference range for I09 is 700 - 730 yuan [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract of coking coal rose 3 yuan yesterday [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Iron ore production increased slightly, and the profit of steel mills narrowed. The first round of price increases was implemented, and the overall supply - demand is relatively loose. The impact of the Sino - US trade negotiation has been mostly digested [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and watch. The reference range for JM09 is 850 - 900 yuan [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose due to positive USDA reports [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is loose in the near - term in South America and tight in the long - term in the US. Demand is dominated by South America in the short - term, and US soybean demand is seasonally weak [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are expected to be volatile, and domestic soybeans will follow the international market after stabilizing. Pay attention to trade policies and US soybean production [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The 2507 contract of corn corrected, and the price of deep - processed corn fell in North China and remained stable in Northeast China [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand is tightening this year. The transfer of grain ownership to channels increases their bargaining power. Substitute imports are expected to decrease, but short - term spot sentiment may cool down [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices will consolidate due to falling spot prices and eased trade tensions [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The 09 contract of Zhengzhou sugar rose 0.19% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Raw sugar rebounded due to macro and crude oil factors. The price is supported at 17 cents/lb. China's sugar market is in the pure sales period, and inventory is low. The price trend will follow raw sugar [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bullish in the short - term and bearish later. Pay attention to the time of concentrated imports [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Overnight, US cotton prices fluctuated, and Zhengzhou cotton prices rose due to tariff policy changes [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazil's April cotton exports were stable compared to March and decreased by 1% year - on - year. China's April textile and clothing exports increased. The expected production of Xinjiang cotton in the 25/26 season may increase [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and watch, and use a range - trading strategy [6]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian market was closed yesterday [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased seasonally in the producing areas, and exports improved [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Palm oil is in a seasonally weak stage. Pay attention to the MPOB report today and production and biodiesel policies later [7]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The 2506 contract of eggs rebounded, and the spot price rose [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is high, and demand is weak due to high - temperature and high - humidity weather and low vegetable prices. Cost provides some support [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate [7]. Pork - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract of pork fluctuated slightly, and the spot price fell slightly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply will continue to increase, and the impact of secondary fattening on prices will weaken. Demand is in the off - season, and costs are low [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to decline with resistance. Pay attention to enterprise sales rhythms and secondary fattening trends [7]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The main contract of apples rose 0.32% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Extreme weather may affect apple production in the new season, especially in Shaanxi. Low inventory and expected production reduction support prices, but consumption needs attention [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and watch [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main contract rose slightly yesterday due to positive news from Sino - US tariff negotiations. The basis weakened, and the import window closed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased as new plants were put into operation and existing plants had more unexpected maintenance. Demand is in the off - season for agricultural films, but there may be a rush to export [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Slightly bullish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term. Short on rallies for far - month contracts [8]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract rose 2.18% on Monday [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Thai raw material prices were not reported due to the Buddha's Birthday festival. Social inventory increased slightly [9]. - **Market Logic**: Positive signals from Sino - US negotiations boosted the market [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bullish in the short - term but with limited upside. Wait and watch in the short - term and short in the medium - term [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main contract rebounded slightly yesterday due to positive news from Sino - US tariff negotiations. The basis strengthened, the import window closed, and the export window opened [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased as some plants resumed production and new plants were put into operation. Demand from the downstream home appliance and automobile industries is mixed, and there may be a rush to export [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Slightly bullish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term. Short on rallies for far - month contracts [9]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices rose yesterday due to positive Sino - US tariff negotiation results, but the increase was limited due to supply pressure [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to exceed demand in the second half of the year even if demand is adjusted upwards [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term trading range is adjusted to $60 - 70 per barrel for Brent. Short on rallies [9]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main contract rose significantly yesterday due to positive news from Sino - US tariff negotiations. The import window closed [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories are expected to increase slightly in May. Demand from downstream industries is weak, but there may be a rush to export [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Slightly bullish in the short - term. Do positive arbitrage on the monthly spread [9]. Shipping European Line Container Shipping - **Market Performance**: The main contract hit the daily limit after the Geneva meeting [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Demand improved after tariff negotiations, but European line cargo volume was still moderate. Supply will be adjusted on the US line, and large European line ships are still being launched [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bullish in the short - term, but be cautious about chasing high prices in the 06 contract. Do 8 - 10 positive arbitrage [10][11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The USDA monthly report on soybeans is slightly bullish, with a small expected decrease in the new US soybean crop production in the 25/26 season, stable export and domestic consumption estimates. However, in the short - term, both US and domestic soybean supplies are expected to be large, and the prices of US soybeans and soybean meal are likely to be range - bound. [2][5] - For oils, the mid - term has downward pressure due to the downward movement of the crude oil center and the recovery of palm oil production. But the upcoming release of new RVO rules in the US may boost the sentiment of the oil sector in the short - term. [12] - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly. In the domestic market, the current production and sales situation is good, but as the price of the outer market falls and the import profit window re - opens, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to weaken. [13][14] - The substantial progress in Sino - US economic and trade talks has boosted the short - term cotton price. The domestic cotton spinning industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the marginal change in inventory. [16][17] - The supply pressure of eggs is relatively large, and the mid - term strategy is to sell on rallies before the low price significantly forces the culling of old chickens. [21] - For live pigs, the short - term spot price fluctuates little, and the futures price has limited downward space in the discount pattern. It is recommended to short on rallies caused by short - term sentiment. [23] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal Important Information - Overnight US soybeans closed higher due to the easing sentiment of the trade war. The USDA monthly report estimates a small decrease in the new US soybean crop production in the 25/26 season, flat crush volume, a small decline in exports, and a small reduction in inventory year - on - year. [2] - The US soybean planting progress has reached 48% as of last week, and the southern US soybean producing areas will have more rainfall in the next two weeks, with sporadic rainfall in the central region, so the planting progress is expected to be normal. [3] - The Brazilian farmers' soybean sales progress is close to 60%, and the selling pressure may gradually decrease. The Brazilian soybean premium has dropped again under the current Sino - US easing situation. [3] - According to MYSTEEL estimates, the expected soybean arrivals in May, June, and July are 919.75 million tons, 1.1 billion tons, and 1.05 billion tons respectively. The oil mills are expected to crush 1.9085 million tons of soybeans this week, compared with 1.846 million tons last week. There is a strong trend of inventory accumulation for soybean meal and soybeans in the next three months in China. [2] Trading Strategy - The current cost range of far - month soybean meal such as 09 is 2,850 - 3,000 yuan/ton. Considering the low valuation of US soybeans and soybean meal, there is some room for rebound due to possible weather, trade easing, and US biodiesel policy expectations. In the short - term, they are expected to be range - bound, and further upward breakthrough of US soybeans requires additional stimuli such as biodiesel and production. [5] Oils Important Information - ITS and AMSPEC estimate that the exports of Malaysian palm oil increased by about 20% - 50% in the first 10 days of April, 13.5% - 17% in the first 15 days, 11.9% in the first 20 days, 14.75% in the first 25 days, and 3.6% - 5.1% in the first 30 days. The high - frequency data from SPPOMA shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 3.97% in the first 15 days of April and 9.11% in the first 20 days. UOB and MPOA estimate an increase of more than 16% in the first 20 days and 17.03% in the first 30 days. [6] - The SPPOMA data shows that from May 1 - 5, 2025, the single - yield of Malaysian palm oil increased by 61.58%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.59%, and the production increased by 60.17%. The ITS data shows that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from May 1 - 10 was 293,991 tons, a 9% decrease compared with the same period last month. [6] - The industry association in the US soybean oil sector requests a significant increase in RVO, which is beneficial to the demand for US soybean oil and boosts its valuation. The domestic spot basis is fluctuating. [11] Trading Strategy - The mid - term of oils has downward pressure due to the downward movement of the crude oil center and the obvious recovery of palm oil production. But the upcoming release of new RVO rules in the US may boost the sentiment of the oil sector in the short - term, so it may be range - bound or slightly bullish. [12] Sugar Important Information - On Monday, the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly. The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar September contract was 5,885 yuan/ton, a 0.79% increase from the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar in various regions also increased. [13] - In April, the single - month sugar sales in Guangxi were 657,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8,800 tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 63.96%, a year - on - year increase of 6.03 percentage points; the industrial inventory was 2.3297 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 270,700 tons. In Yunnan, the single - month sugar sales in April were 280,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 90,900 tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 55.71%, a year - on - year increase of 9.18 percentage points; the industrial inventory was 1.047 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 34,700 tons. [13] Trading Strategy - The large - scale delivery of the May raw sugar contract at a relatively low price and the start of the new crushing season in the central - southern region of Brazil have alleviated the supply shortage. The price of raw sugar may reach a new low in the second and third quarters. In the domestic market, the current production and sales situation is good, but as the outer - market price falls and the import profit window re - opens, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to weaken. [14] Cotton Important Information - On Monday, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded significantly. The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton September contract was 13,240 yuan/ton, a 2.24% increase from the previous trading day. The spot price of cotton also increased. [16] - The substantial progress in Sino - US economic and trade talks has led to a significant reduction in bilateral tariff levels, with the US canceling 91% of the additional tariffs and China canceling 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US has suspended the implementation of 24% "reciprocal tariffs", and China has also suspended the implementation of 24% counter - tariffs. [16] Trading Strategy - From a macro perspective, the progress in Sino - US talks has boosted the short - term cotton price. The domestic cotton spinning industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the marginal change in inventory. [17] Eggs Spot Information - Most egg prices in the country rose yesterday, with a few remaining stable. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.17 yuan/jin. The supply increase is limited, the downstream digestion has improved, and most traders are more confident about the future market. It is expected that egg prices will mostly rise today, with a few remaining stable. [20] Trading Strategy - After the festival, the inventory reduction was less than expected, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The mid - term strategy is to sell on rallies before the low price significantly forces the culling of old chickens. [21] Live Pigs Spot Information - The domestic live pig prices were mainly stable yesterday, with some areas slightly weaker. The average price in Henan remained flat at 15.11 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped by 0.1 yuan to 14.57 yuan/kg. The sales of live pigs are relatively slow, and it is difficult to raise prices, but the upstream is also reluctant to accept price cuts, and it is difficult for the slaughter end to force prices down. It is expected that live pig prices will be mainly stable today, with a few slightly decreasing. [22] Trading Strategy - The short - term spot price of live pigs fluctuates little, and the futures price has limited downward space in the discount pattern. It is recommended to short on rallies caused by short - term sentiment such as hoarding, secondary fattening, and stockpiling. [23]

芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/13 P T A 日期 原油 2025/0 5/06 2025/0 5/07 2025/0 5/08 | | 亚） | 国） | | 东） | 中国） | | 苏） | 南） | 料） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/05/06 | 790 | 685 | 5555 | 5300 | 870 | | 7130 | 7315 | 8375 | | 2025/05/07 | 790 | 700 | 5650 | 5300 | 880 | | 7240 | 7415 | 8350 | | 2025/05/08 | 785 | 693 | 5600 | 5330 | 865 | | 7140 | 7315 | 8350 | | 2025/05/09 | 780 | 699 | 5650 | 5350 | 865 | | 7135 | 7340 | 8350 | | 2025/05/12 | 780 | 699 | 5650 | 5550 | 865 | | 73 ...

Market Overview - US stock market experienced a significant surge, with the Dow Jones rising over 1100 points and both Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching two-month highs, driven by positive signals from trade talks and expectations of easing trade tensions [3] - Major tech companies saw substantial gains, with Amazon up over 8%, and Meta, Apple, and Tesla all increasing by more than 6%, indicating strong market sentiment [3] Chinese Stocks - Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index surged by 5.4%, with notable increases in stocks like WeRide (up 27%), XPeng, Bilibili, and JD.com, reflecting improved market confidence due to easing trade tensions and expectations of economic recovery in China [3] - The performance of electric vehicle companies, particularly XPeng and Li Auto, is bolstered by strong sales data and supportive policies, attracting significant investment [3] International Developments - The US-Ukraine mineral agreement, while appearing to focus on reconstruction, is seen as a strategic move by the US to gain access to Ukraine's rare earth and lithium resources, potentially altering global supply dynamics [4] - Chinese rare earth companies may face short-term price pressures, but China's advantages in processing technology and supportive policies could present long-term opportunities [4] Tax Policy Implications - The potential extension of previous tax cuts under Trump's new tax proposal could positively impact US stock market earnings expectations in the short term, although it may also lead to increased fiscal deficits and inflationary pressures in the long run [5] Commodity Market Dynamics - Oil prices rose by 1.5% due to improved supply-demand expectations linked to global economic recovery, though volatility remains a concern due to geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production policies [5] - Gold prices fell by 2.7%, nearing $3200, influenced by a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields, although gold retains long-term investment value amid global economic uncertainties [5] Currency and Investment Strategy - Offshore RMB depreciated by 397 points, primarily due to a stronger dollar and capital flow impacts, but the depreciation space is considered limited given improving economic fundamentals in China [6] - For long-term investors, US tech giants like Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia, along with quality Chinese stocks such as XPeng, Pinduoduo, and Alibaba, are recommended for their growth potential amid improving fundamentals and policy support [6]

2025.05. 13 本文字数：1500，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 北京时间周一下午，中美双方发表《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》。声明公布后，欧亚股市率先拉 升，中国香港恒生指数尾盘涨幅扩大至近3%，欧洲斯托克600指数和德国DAX指数创1年新高，美股 随后接棒狂飙，道指大涨1160点，标普500指数和纳指分别大涨3.26%和4.35%，后者较4月份关税抛 售中的最低收盘价高出22%，进入技术性牛市。 罗切斯特表示，这项为期90天的协议将美国的有效关税税率大幅降低。"同样值得注意的是，（官员 们）在新闻发布会上淡化了谈判持续90天的要求，即'只要谈判是建设性的'。这对国际贸易意味着， 事实上的'关税墙'已经降低到更可行的水平，也提高了其他国家的市场定价，以便在未来与美国谈判 时获得类似的待遇。"他说。 美股有望进一步走高 市场观察人士认为，协议利好风险偏好，并预计短期内美股有望获得更多动能。 中美谈判成果振奋市场 第一财经记者汇总发现，机构普遍认为协议可能会重新引发风险偏好，使包括美国在内的全球权益资 产受益。 摩根大通资产管理公司亚太区首席市场策略师许长泰（Tai Hui）在周一给客 ...

贸易战缓和提振市场情绪，纳斯达克中国金龙指数大幅收涨5.40%，创4月4日以来新高。 ...

金十数据5月12日讯，德意志银行分析师乔治•萨拉韦洛斯在一份报告中表示，最近全球贸易战缓和的进 展对美元的影响尚不明确。他说，最近几周有关美国贸易的更积极的消息在经济增长方面对世界其他地 区的好处大于对美国的好处。这对美元不利，尤其是相对于经济增长敏感的货币。然而，对于美国的外 部融资而言，一个不那么敌对的美国政府显然对美元更有利，因为它不会过于阻碍资金流入。 德意志银行：美国贸易进展对美元的影响尚不明确 ...