2025.05. 13 本文字数：1500，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 北京时间周一下午，中美双方发表《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》。声明公布后，欧亚股市率先拉 升，中国香港恒生指数尾盘涨幅扩大至近3%，欧洲斯托克600指数和德国DAX指数创1年新高，美股 随后接棒狂飙，道指大涨1160点，标普500指数和纳指分别大涨3.26%和4.35%，后者较4月份关税抛 售中的最低收盘价高出22%，进入技术性牛市。 罗切斯特表示，这项为期90天的协议将美国的有效关税税率大幅降低。"同样值得注意的是，（官员 们）在新闻发布会上淡化了谈判持续90天的要求，即'只要谈判是建设性的'。这对国际贸易意味着， 事实上的'关税墙'已经降低到更可行的水平，也提高了其他国家的市场定价，以便在未来与美国谈判 时获得类似的待遇。"他说。 美股有望进一步走高 市场观察人士认为，协议利好风险偏好，并预计短期内美股有望获得更多动能。 中美谈判成果振奋市场 第一财经记者汇总发现，机构普遍认为协议可能会重新引发风险偏好，使包括美国在内的全球权益资 产受益。 摩根大通资产管理公司亚太区首席市场策略师许长泰（Tai Hui）在周一给客 ...

贸易战缓和提振市场情绪，纳斯达克中国金龙指数大幅收涨5.40%，创4月4日以来新高。 ...

金十数据5月12日讯，德意志银行分析师乔治•萨拉韦洛斯在一份报告中表示，最近全球贸易战缓和的进 展对美元的影响尚不明确。他说，最近几周有关美国贸易的更积极的消息在经济增长方面对世界其他地 区的好处大于对美国的好处。这对美元不利，尤其是相对于经济增长敏感的货币。然而，对于美国的外 部融资而言，一个不那么敌对的美国政府显然对美元更有利，因为它不会过于阻碍资金流入。 德意志银行：美国贸易进展对美元的影响尚不明确 ...

Group 1: Trade Developments - A trade breakthrough between the U.S. and China has been achieved, resulting in a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from +145% to +30% and on U.S. exports from +125% to +10% [1] - This de-escalation in the trade war has positively impacted stock markets, with major indexes showing significant gains [2] - The likelihood of a permanent trade deal within the next 90 days could further boost market performance and reduce recession risks [3] Group 2: Market Reactions - The Dow is up +1075 points, S&P is +175 points, and Nasdaq is +800 points, indicating strong market enthusiasm following the trade news [2] - Amazon and Tesla shares have both increased over 8% in pre-market trading [2] - The probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has decreased, with the first cut now expected to occur in September instead of July [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The Monthly U.S. Budget for April is expected to increase to $256 billion from $210 billion reported previously [4] - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is anticipated to show a month-over-month increase of +0.2% and a year-over-year decrease to +2.3% [5] Group 4: Earnings Reports - NRG Energy reported Q1 earnings of $2.62 per share, exceeding estimates by +45.6%, with revenues of $8.59 billion, up from $7.43 billion year-over-year [6] - Sally Beauty's earnings of 42 cents per share surpassed estimates by 3 cents, but revenues fell short at $883 million compared to the anticipated $901 million [6]

Group 1 - The recent high-level talks between China and the US have led to a significant rebound in the US stock market, with the S&P 500 index expected to rise nearly 4% at the opening [1][3] - The Nasdaq 100 index is poised to re-enter a bull market, with major tech stocks like Nvidia, Tesla, and Apple anticipated to surge over 5% in early trading [3][4] - The agreement to lower tariffs marks an important milestone in the relationship between the two economic giants, although concerns remain about the lack of details and the risk of renewed conflicts [3][4] Group 2 - The trade tensions have already impacted companies, with firms like UPS, Ford, and Mattel retracting their earnings guidance due to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs [5] - Analysis indicates that, on average, 6.1% of the revenue for S&P 500 companies in 2024 will come from sales to China or Chinese companies [6] - The S&P 500 index has recovered about half of its nearly 19% decline since peaking in February, driven by a shift in market sentiment towards optimism regarding trade policies [7]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年05月12日 近期氧化铝检修压产产能不断上升,产蛋阶段性降低,行业库存转降,不过一旦利润修复产能依然 会大规模复产,且山东和河北新产能将逐渐有成品产出。成本端几内亚铝土矿成交价已从年初110美 元降至75美元，对应氧化铝平均成本降至2900元附近。本周氧化铝现货成交略有上升,短期盘面反 弹高度将受到过剩前景和成本坍塌限制,期货升水时考虑逢高偏空参与。 上周国际油价低位反弹,布伦特07合约上涨3.95%。继美英达成贸易协议后,周末中美高层绕贸会 谈在瑞士取得实质性进展及重要关识,双方同意建立中美经贸挫伤机制开展进一步磋商,贸易战风 脸的阶段性缓和带动油价向上修复,同时二季度以来全球石油累阵速度放缓。同时值得注意的是. 周日美伊核会谈同样进展积极,俄乌和谈亦在推进之中,全球地缘风险的绘和降低原油制裁及断供 风险,后续上涨空间取决于贸易战实质性缓和的进展。 【贵金属】 周五贵金属震荡,波动有限。上周美联储会议鲍威尔重申需等待更多经济数据指导决策,本周重点 关注美国CP1、PPI和零售数据。近期贸易谈判和地练纷争交织,印巴达成停火,关英达成 ...

每日观点 铁矿石： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-5-12） 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平继续将保持偏高水平，总体供需宽松，港口库存 增加，市场传言将出台粗钢压减政策；偏空 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价841，基差145；日照港巴粗现货折合盘面价825，基差129，现货升水 期货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14764.71万吨，环比减少，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方,20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓空减；偏空 6、预期：贸易战有缓和迹象，市场情绪回暖，但国内需求降低，进口增加，价格难以上行，震荡偏空思路 I2509：690-710震荡 利多： 利空： 1.钢厂补库有所增加。 2.港口库存减少。 ...

Group 1 - Optimism in overseas markets has led to a reversal of the "sell America" trade, with significant rebounds in U.S. stocks and the dollar index surpassing the 100 mark [1][4] - The S&P 500 index has seen a nine-day consecutive rise, marking the longest streak since 2004, effectively erasing losses from early April [4] - The easing of trade tensions, such as the U.S. exempting Canada and Mexico from certain tariffs, is a primary driver of this market behavior [4] Group 2 - Economic data has shown resilience, with the U.S. Q1 GDP declining by 0.3% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, despite being influenced by various special factors [7] - The non-farm payroll data for April indicated an addition of 177,000 jobs, significantly exceeding market expectations, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, bolstering confidence in the U.S. economy [7] - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for the Federal Reserve's first rate cut from June to July, reflecting the positive employment data and better-than-expected ISM data [7] Group 3 - The strengthening of the offshore yuan against the dollar is attributed to the positive sentiment surrounding trade negotiations [9][10] - As of the latest week, the dollar/offshore yuan exchange rate was reported at 7.211, with the yuan appreciating nearly 700 points during the week [10] - The return of funds to U.S. assets is evident, with a notable rebound in U.S. stocks and a drop in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4% [10] Group 4 - The Hong Kong stock market has also shown strength, with the Hang Seng Index rebounding by 1.74% to 22,504.68 points on May 2 [11] - The Central Political Bureau's positive tone has stabilized market sentiment, emphasizing the need for proactive macro policies [11] - Investors are advised to adopt a range trading strategy while closely monitoring U.S.-China trade negotiations and potential changes in non-tariff barriers [11]

摘要本周三（4月30日)欧市盘中，伦敦金价格小幅下跌，截发稿暂报3311.14美元/盎司，跌幅0.18%。日 内将迎来众多重磅数据，包括；美国4月ADP就业人数(万人)、美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率初值、 美国3月核心PCE物价指数年率等等数据，根据昨日公布的整体数据和市场预期来看，晚间数据预计将 利好金价，所以，日内仍可以低多看涨反弹为主。 对未来情况的看法更加恶化。该会衡量受访者如何看待未来六个月的预期指数大跌至54.4，下降12.5， 为2011年10月以来的最低水平。该会官员表示该读数与经济衰退相符。 该会负责全球指标的高级经济学家Stephanie Guichard表示："三个预期子指标（商业状况、就业前景和 未来收入）都急剧恶化，反映出对未来普遍存在的悲观情绪。" Guichard补充说，总体而言，信心调查处于"疫情爆发以来从未见过的水平"。 【黄金行情解析】 昨日黄金走势维持宽幅震荡整理，一方面因市场对贸易战缓和的预期，令黄金反弹受到限制，另一方面 因关税政策不确定性，与经济衰退担忧，依旧吸引逢低买盘支撑金价，因此操作上建议大家，以震荡思 路对待，下方支撑关注3300美元，其次3268美元，上 ...

Group 1 - The renovation and building materials sector experienced a slight increase, closing at 11,851.20 points with a growth rate of 1.52% [1] - Several stocks in the renovation and building materials sector saw price increases, with Mengbaihe leading at 7.67 CNY per share, up 10.04% [1] - Gujia Home Furnishing and Filinger also showed significant gains, closing at 25.07 CNY per share (up 10.00%) and 7.14 CNY per share (up 5.93%) respectively [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities reported a recent easing of trade war sentiments, leading to a rally in the export sector [2] - The domestic political bureau meeting focused on implementing existing policies while preparing new monetary policy tools and promoting service consumption [2] - The real estate chain is nearing the end of its clearing phase, with a significant improvement in supply dynamics and stable demand expected through 2025 [2] - The report anticipates accelerated consumption in home appliances and furniture by Q4 2024 and Q3 2025, driven by trade-in subsidies [2] - The report recommends focusing on undervalued consumer leaders and expansion-oriented companies, while also considering infrastructure projects in central and western regions if external demand declines [2]