1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are following the strength of coking coal, mainly trading on the expectations of coal industry production cuts and over - production checks. The seasonal recovery of apparent demand in the later period will lead to a convergence of the supply - demand gap and a moderate inventory accumulation pressure. However, the apparent demand in the fourth quarter is not expected to exceed the current production level, and the demand outlook remains weak. Currently, pricing is affected by both weak demand and supply - side contraction expectations. Steel prices are supported by the high - level steel mill production from September to October, which boosts raw material demand, and the expected coal supply situation. With the influence of coking coal and pre - National Day restocking, prices are expected to recover upwards. The pressure level for rebar is around 3350 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils, it is around 3500 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - As of the previous day's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume has significantly rebounded, while the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased, mainly due to the recovery of shipments from Brazilian ports, which is an expected data change. Based on recent shipment data, the subsequent average arrival volume will first increase and then decrease. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin has slightly declined. After major events ended, the hot metal production increased significantly last week, and the steel mill restocking demand has increased. The fundamentals have slightly improved, but it is still insufficient in the peak season, and raw materials are stronger than finished products. In terms of inventory, port inventory has slightly increased, the port clearance volume has increased month - on - month, and the steel mill's equity iron ore inventory has increased month - on - month. Looking ahead, since the steel mill's profit margin is still relatively high, hot metal production in September will remain at a relatively high level, and the low port inventory year - on - year provides support for iron ore. The "anti - involution" work may lead to policies in the steel industry to strictly prohibit new capacity and implement production cuts. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill production control in the fourth quarter. Strategically, iron ore is currently in a tight - balanced pattern. It is recommended to view it with a bullish bias in a range of 780 - 850, and it is advisable to buy the iron ore 2601 contract on dips. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Coke**: As of the previous day's close, the coke futures showed a strong rebound, with a divergence between the current and futures prices. The second round of price cuts by steel mills on coke spot has been implemented, and the port trade quotes have followed the decline. On the supply side, due to the previous 7 - round price increases in coke, the coking profit has increased. After 2 rounds of price cuts, coking still has profits, and northern coke enterprises have rapidly resumed production. On the demand side, steel mills have resumed production this week, hot metal production has increased significantly, and downstream demand is still supported. In terms of inventory, the coking plant and steel mill inventories have slightly increased, while the port inventory has decreased, and the overall inventory has slightly increased at a medium level. The futures market is more focused on the decline range of coke and coking coal in September and the driving force for bottom - building and rebound in the future. With the improvement of coking profit and the lifting of production restrictions, the coke production, supply, and logistics transportation have recovered. It is temporarily expected that there is room for 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. Since the expected decline range is not large, the futures market has advanced the trading of the rebound expectation. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual implementation of the steel industry's policies to strictly prohibit new capacity and implement production cuts, as well as the market fluctuations of steel and whether the peak season expectations are fulfilled. It is recommended to buy the coke 2601 contract on dips in the range of 1650 - 1800, and for arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the previous day's close, the coking coal futures showed a strong rebound, with a certain divergence between the current and futures prices. The spot auction prices are stable with a weak trend, and the Mongolian coal quotes have rebounded following the futures. On the supply side, domestic coking coal auctions have stabilized recently. After the price adjustment, the downstream purchasing willingness has recovered, but it will take time for the price to bottom out and rebound. This week, the main producing area coal mines have gradually resumed production as expected, logistics transportation has recovered, and coal mines have sold at reduced prices, resulting in a certain improvement in sales. In terms of imported coal, the Mongolian coal price fluctuates with the futures. On the demand side, hot metal production has increased significantly this week, and coking operations have also increased rapidly. The impact of environmental protection restrictions has been lifted. In terms of inventory, coal mines, coking plants, and steel mills have reduced their inventories, while coal washing plants, ports, and border ports have slightly increased their inventories, and the overall inventory has slightly decreased at a medium level. After 2 rounds of coke price cuts, downstream users and traders have started to buy in advance, and the trading volume has improved slightly. The market generally expects a limited decline space, and the futures market has advanced the trading of the rebound expectation. There is restocking demand before the National Day. It is recommended to buy the coking coal 2601 contract on dips in the range of 1070 - 1300, and for arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3240 yuan/ton, 3210 yuan/ton, and 3380 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 20 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton. Rebar futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3205 yuan/ton, 3045 yuan/ton, and 3136 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 16 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 9 yuan/ton [1]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3410 yuan/ton, 3330 yuan/ton, and 3380 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3374 yuan/ton, 3398 yuan/ton, and 3370 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 6 yuan/ton, 3 yuan/ton, and 6 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price is 3010 yuan/ton, and the slab price is 3730 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar is 3311 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar is 3151 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton [1]. - The profit of East China hot - rolled coils is 153 yuan/ton, an increase of 53 yuan/ton; the profit of North China hot - rolled coils is 73 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan/ton; the profit of South China hot - rolled coils is 133 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton. The profit of East China rebar is - 27 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan/ton; the profit of North China rebar is - 47 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan/ton; the profit of South China rebar is 33 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average hot metal production is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.6 tons or 5.1% compared with the previous value. The production of five major steel products is 857.2 tons, a decrease of 3.4 tons or - 0.4% compared with the previous value. Rebar production is 211.9 tons, a decrease of 6.8 tons or - 3.1% compared with the previous value, including a decrease of 3.6 tons or - 11.7% in electric - arc furnace production and a decrease of 3.1 tons or - 1.7% in converter production. Hot - rolled coil production is 325.1 tons, an increase of 10.9 tons or 3.5% compared with the previous value [1]. - The inventory of five major steel products is 1514.6 tons, an increase of 13.9 tons or 0.9% compared with the previous value. Rebar inventory is 653.9 tons, an increase of 13.9 tons or 2.2% compared with the previous value. Hot - rolled coil inventory is 373.3 tons, a decrease of 1.0 tons or - 0.3% compared with the previous value [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building materials transaction volume is 11.8 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons or 1.0% compared with the previous value. The apparent demand for five major steel products is 843.3 tons, an increase of 15.5 tons or 1.9% compared with the previous value. The apparent demand for rebar is 198.1 tons, a decrease of 4.0 tons or - 2.0% compared with the previous value. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 326.2 tons, an increase of 20.8 tons or 6.8% compared with the previous value [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines are 828.6 yuan/ton, 837.0 yuan/ton, 833.0 yuan/ton, and 847.8 yuan/ton respectively. The 01 - contract basis for Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines has increased by 20.0 yuan/ton, 14.5 yuan/ton, 14.6 yuan/ton, and 15.7 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The 5 - 9 spread is 17.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.0 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 39.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55.5 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is 21.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indices - The spot prices of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines at Rizhao Port are 906.0 yuan/ton, 789.0 yuan/ton, 811.0 yuan/ton, and 745.0 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 0.0 yuan/ton, 5.0 yuan/ton, 5.0 yuan/ton, and 4.0 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price is 105.7 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.3 dollars/ton; the Platts 62% Fe price is 106.4 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.7 dollars/ton [4]. Supply and Demand - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) is 2362.3 tons, a decrease of 85.7 tons or - 3.5% compared with the previous value; the global shipment volume (weekly) is 3573.1 tons, an increase of 816.9 tons or 29.6% compared with the previous value; the national monthly import volume is 10462.3 tons, a decrease of 131.5 tons or - 1.2% compared with the previous value [4]. - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.7 tons or 5.1% compared with the previous value; the daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports (weekly) is 337.3 tons, an increase of 13.5 tons or 4.2% compared with the previous value; the national monthly pig iron production is 6979.0 tons, a decrease of 100.7 tons or - 1.4% compared with the previous value; the national monthly crude steel production is 7737.0 tons, a decrease of 228.8 tons or - 2.9% compared with the previous value [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory (weekly) is 13849.47 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons or 0.0% compared with the previous value; the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 8993.1 tons, an increase of 53.2 tons or 0.6% compared with the previous value; the inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) is 20.0 days, a decrease of 1.0 days or - 4.8% compared with the previous value [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke is 1200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the warehouse - receipt price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke is 1538 yuan/ton, unchanged. The coke 01 contract price is 1689 yuan/ton, an increase of 63 yuan/ton; the 01 - contract basis is - 151 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan/ton [6]. - The coke 05 contract price is 1828 yuan/ton, an increase of 66 yuan/ton; the 01 - contract basis is - 290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 yuan/ton. The J01 - J05 spread is - 140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal is 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the warehouse - receipt price of Mongolian 5 raw coal is 1099 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The coking coal 01 contract price is 1188 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton; the 01 - contract basis is - 89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan/ton [6]. - The coking coal 05 contract price is 1285 yuan/ton, an increase of 59 yuan/ton; the 05 - contract basis is - 186 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan/ton. The JM01 - JM05 spread is - 97 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton [6]. Supply and Demand - **Coke Supply**: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants is 66.8 tons, an increase of 2.4 tons or 3.8% compared with the previous value; the daily average production of 247 steel mills is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.7 tons or 5.14% compared with the previous value [6]. - **Coke Demand**: The 247 - steel - mill hot metal production is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.8 tons or 5.1% compared with the previous value [6]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: The raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines is 867 tons, an increase of 43.8 tons or 5.4% compared with the previous value; the clean coal production is 442.5 tons, an increase of 23.3 tons or 5.6% compared with the previous value [6]. - **Coking Coal Demand**: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants is 66.8 tons, an increase of 2.4 tons or 3.8% compared with the previous value; the daily average production of 247 steel mills is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.7 tons or 5.1% compared with the previous value [6]. Inventory Changes - **Coke Inventory**: The total coke inventory is 906.2 tons, an increase of 11.0 tons or 1.2% compared with the previous value. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants is 67.8 tons, an increase of 1.3 tons or 2.0% compared with the previous value; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills is 633.3 tons, an increase of 9.6 tons or 1.5% compared with the previous value; the port inventory is 205.1 tons, an

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint of the Report - The demand expectation still provides support, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term due to the high - level maintenance of both supply and demand, and sufficient pricing of macro - level positive factors, along with seasonal demand support from steel mills [3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Weekly Viewpoint - The supply side shows that Brazilian Vale's shipments have significantly declined due to port maintenance, and non - mainstream shipments are also weak; the demand side indicates that blast furnace operations have quickly recovered, and the raw material demand expectation remains strong; macro - level factors suggest that the market may have fully priced in the interest - rate cut expectation, and there is still some macro support for commodity valuations. Overall, the iron ore price may fluctuate at a high level in the short term [5] Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 01 contract fluctuated strongly, closing at 799.5 yuan/ton, with a position of 543,000 lots (an increase of 41,800 lots). The average daily trading volume was 345,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 23,100 lots [7] Spot Price Performance - Spot prices were relatively strong, but the price increase of medium - grade PB powder was relatively narrow. For example, the price of Carajás fines increased from 900 to 920 yuan/ton, and the price of PB powder increased from 782 to 794 yuan/ton [11] Iron Ore Supply Side Mainstream Mines - Brazilian port maintenance led to a sharp drop in shipments, and mainstream shipments declined. For example, Brazil's weekly shipments decreased by 509.1 million tons compared to the previous week, and Australia's decreased by 320 million tons [4] Non - mainstream Mines - Non - mainstream shipments also had a phased decline [20] Domestic Mines - The operation in North China has recovered, and the overall capacity utilization rate of domestic mines has been revised upwards [26] Iron Ore Demand Side Downstream - Pig iron production has rapidly recovered, and the port's imported iron ore clearance volume may increase seasonally, with expectations of downstream restocking demand [29] Scrap Steel Substitution Effect - Scrap steel arrivals increased again on a week - on - week basis. The scrap - pig iron price difference stopped falling after reaching a recent low [30] Iron Ore Inventory - The port inventory level has been relatively stable recently [32][34] Downstream Profits - Downstream operations have quickly recovered, and profits are oscillating at a low level [37] Spot Category Price Difference - The price of medium - grade PB powder has been relatively weak. The high - medium grade price difference has continued to strengthen, and the medium - low grade price difference has continued to narrow [39][40] Futures Contract Month Spread - The 1 - 5 spread reached a phased high (24.5) and then declined [44] Basis Performance - Both futures and spot prices were strong, and the overall basis level has been relatively stable [48]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of Iron Ore 2601 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA10 line. The core logic is that the demand has good resilience and the ore price is at a high level [2]. - The supply and demand of iron ore have changed. After the end of production restrictions, the terminal consumption of ore has increased significantly, and with the approaching holiday, there is a restocking expectation, so the demand has good resilience, which supports the ore price. However, the contradictions in the finished steel market are accumulating, the profit is shrinking, and the incremental space is limited. At the same time, the arrival at domestic ports has decreased, the overseas miners' shipments have also dropped significantly, the supply of foreign ore has shrunk in the short term, and the supply of domestic ore is weak. Overall, the fundamentals are acceptable, supporting the high - level operation of the ore price, but the upward movement of the high - valued ore price is restricted. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of the steel market [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward bias. The reference is to pay attention to the support at the MA10 line, and the core logic is the good demand resilience and high - level ore price [2]. Market Driving Logic - The demand side: After the end of production restrictions, the terminal consumption of ore has increased significantly, and with the approaching holiday, there is a restocking expectation, so the demand has good resilience, which supports the ore price. But the contradictions in the finished steel market are accumulating, the profit is shrinking, and the incremental space is limited [3]. - The supply side: The arrival at domestic ports has decreased, the overseas miners' shipments have dropped significantly, the supply of foreign ore has shrunk in the short term, and the supply of domestic ore is weak, resulting in relatively low ore supply [3]. - Overall: The fundamentals are acceptable, supporting the high - level operation of the ore price, but the upward movement of the high - valued ore price is restricted. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of the steel market [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2) Core View The fundamentals of iron ore are expected to weaken as demand resilience fades and supply pressure increases, which will cause the overvalued iron ore price to decline under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of the steel market during the peak season [6]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price Performance and Support Factors - Since August, the iron ore price has been oscillating at a high level with a significantly stronger overall trend compared to other ferrous metal varieties. The support comes from stable steel - mill production and high terminal consumption of ore, as well as the intervention of variety arbitrage funds [2]. Valuation Situation - Iron ore is a relatively over - valued variety in the ferrous metal industry chain. The absolute price of iron ore is close to the annual high, and the basis is at a low level in the same period over the years. The relative valuation shows that the ratios of iron ore to steel and iron ore to coke are approaching historical highs, and steel - mill profits are shrinking [3]. Demand Situation - The terminal consumption of iron ore has been declining, with the daily average hot - metal output and imported ore consumption of 247 sample steel mills showing a downward trend as of the week ending August 29. Although the high - frequency demand indicators are still at a relatively high level and the peak season is approaching, steel - mill profitability is deteriorating, and downstream demand for building materials and exports are weak, so iron ore demand is weakening [4]. Supply Situation - Overseas miners are actively shipping, and the global weekly iron ore shipment has reached a new high this year. The supply increase mainly comes from Brazilian ore and non - mainstream ore. The arrival volume at domestic ports has increased, and there is still room for growth in subsequent arrivals, so the supply pressure of iron ore will continue to increase [5][6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the iron ore industry. The trading strategy suggests a "sideways" outlook for single - commodity trading, and no strategies are proposed for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. 2. Core View - This week, iron ore prices fluctuated. Although iron ore shipments decreased slightly, Australian shipments increased significantly while those from Brazil and non - mainstream regions decreased. Iron ore demand remained high despite a slight decline in molten iron production. However, due to the military parade, blast furnaces have production - restriction plans, which will lead to a decline in demand. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is relatively limited. Future attention should be paid to the impact of floating cargo volume on port arrivals, as well as changes in iron ore shipments and molten iron production [1][2]. 3. Summary by Section Price and Spread - This week, iron ore prices fluctuated. As of Friday's close, the main 2601 contract of iron ore closed at 787.50 yuan/ton, up 17.50 yuan/ton week - on - week. The Mysteel 62% Australian powder forward price index was 102.8 US dollars/ton, up 2.95 US dollars/ton week - on - week, a 2.95% increase. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 779 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton week - on - week [1][5]. Supply - According to the latest data from Mysteel, the global iron ore shipments this period were 33.16 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 910,000 tons. Australian shipments increased significantly, while those from Brazil and non - mainstream regions decreased. The arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports this period was 23.93 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 830,000 tons [1][8]. Demand - A Mysteel survey of 247 steel mills showed that the blast furnace operating rate was 83.2%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points from last week and an increase of 6.79 percentage points from the same period last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.02%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points from last week and an increase of 7.06 percentage points from the same period last year; the steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from last week and an increase of 59.74 percentage points from the same period last year; the daily average molten iron output was 2.4013 million tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from last week and an increase of 192,400 tons from the same period last year [1][10][11]. Inventory - According to Mysteel statistics, the total iron ore inventory at 45 ports across the country was 137.6302 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 821,800 tons; the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports was 3.1864 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 710,000 tons [2][13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Considering the shipping schedule, the supply and demand of iron ore will be weak in September, and the overall static supply and demand will tighten. Attention should be paid to the restoration of molten iron after the military parade and the strength of the downstream peak season. If there is significant inventory reduction and rapid restoration of molten iron during the peak season, the iron ore price will remain firm. Otherwise, attention can be paid to the bottom - up negative feedback [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In August, the spot and futures prices of iron ore fluctuated strongly. As of August 28, the futures price of the main contract increased by 33.5 yuan/ton month - on - month [2][4] 2. Supply Side - **Mainstream Mines**: The shipments of the four major mines are expected to increase in September, with an estimated month - on - month increase of about 325 tons. Specifically, VALE's estimated shipment in September is 2785 tons, a decrease of 5 tons month - on - month; Rio Tinto's is 3015 tons, an increase of 195 tons; BHP's is 2380 tons, an increase of about 55 tons; and FMG's is 1610 tons, an increase of 80 tons [23][26][27] - **Non - mainstream Mines**: The shipments of non - mainstream mines are relatively stable overall. The estimated shipment in August is 4740 tons, and in September it is 4715 tons, a decrease of about 25 tons [30] - **Domestic Mines**: The domestic iron concentrate production is expected to decrease slightly. The estimated production in August is 2056 tons, and in September it is 1985 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 70 tons [33] - **Overall Supply**: The global supply in September is expected to increase by about 235 tons month - on - month [34] 3. Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: According to the Steel Union's statistics, the estimated national pig iron production in August is 7460 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. The estimated blast furnace molten iron production in September is 7190 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 270 tons, which translates to a decrease of 443 tons in the demand for 61% grade iron ore [5][16][20] - **Overseas Demand**: The daily average pig iron production outside China remains stable for now. The estimated pig iron production in September will decrease by 30 tons, which translates to a decrease of about 49 tons in the demand for 61% grade iron ore [19][20] - **Overall Demand**: Globally, the demand for 61% grade iron ore in September is expected to decrease by about 492 tons [5][20] 4. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: At the end of August, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports across the country was 1.38 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 105 tons. The inventory in September is expected to fluctuate slightly [35] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills adopt low - inventory management. They replenished inventory at low levels in June and July, and there may be inventory replenishment before the long holiday at the end of September [37] 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Considering the shipping schedule, the supply and demand of iron ore in September will be weak, and the overall static supply and demand will tighten. The supply - demand surplus in September is estimated to be - 26 tons [43][44]

Group 1 - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June, marking two consecutive months of narrowing [1][6] - High-tech manufacturing profits shifted from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase in July, significantly boosting the overall profit growth rate of industrial enterprises [1][6] - From August 1 to 24, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 727,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 7%, with a cumulative retail of 7.182 million units in 2023, up 27% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.7625%, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan in the central bank's open market operations [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI for August in both the US and Eurozone rebounded above the critical point, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [2][9] - The real estate market continues to adjust, with second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities declining month-on-month, prompting the government to enhance macro policy effectiveness [2][9] Group 3 - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to increase by 3.03% from the same period last month, while exports are projected to rise significantly [3][25] - The dual-fuel market is experiencing a mixed trend, with iron and coke prices showing fluctuations amid stable demand and increasing inventory levels [3][23] Group 4 - The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit will take place from August 31 to September 1, 2025, in Tianjin, where member states will sign the "Tianjin Declaration" and approve the "10-Year Development Strategy of the SCO" [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is affected by tariff disturbances, with steel prices experiencing increased volatility. The black - series market had a concentrated release of previous bullish sentiment, facing short - term adjustments due to factors such as post - delivery market arrival pressure and recent tariff impacts, but still having upward drivers in the medium term [3]. - The supply, demand, and inventory of different steel products (such as rebar and hot - rolled coils) and raw materials (such as iron ore, coking coal, and coke) show different trends. For example, rebar has limited demand release in the off - season, while hot - rolled coils have a more optimistic demand performance [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The prices of raw materials were under pressure at high levels, and steel prices fluctuated and adjusted. The prices of some steel products and raw materials changed, with some rising and some falling. The market sentiment cooled down after the exchange adjusted the coking coal handling fee and imposed position limits. Rebar has been accumulating inventory for three consecutive weeks, while the inventory increase of hot - rolled coils has slowed down, and the social inventory has decreased. In the short - term, the trend of hot - rolled coils is stronger than that of rebar, and the overall market shows an oscillating adjustment [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: National rebar weekly output was 220.45 million tons (down 0.33% month - on - month and up 32.51% year - on - year), and national hot - rolled coil weekly output was 315.59 million tons (up 0.22% month - on - month and up 4.72% year - on - year). Rebar production decreased slightly, and hot - rolled coil production increased slightly. The blast furnace and electric furnace production of rebar both decreased slightly. The blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly, and the electric furnace operating rate increased slightly. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils both contracted [14][16][27]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 189.94 million tons (down 9.89% month - on - month and down 4.72% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 314.75 million tons (up 2.79% month - on - month and up 9.21% year - on - year). Rebar demand declined significantly, while hot - rolled coil demand showed an increase [35]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 587.19 million tons (up 5.48% month - on - month and down 14.97% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory was 357.47 million tons (up 0.24% month - on - month and down 20.66% year - on - year). Rebar inventory accumulation expanded, and hot - rolled coil inventory accumulation slowed down [39][44]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate market, the transactions of commercial housing and land both weakened month - on - month. In the automotive market, in July 2025, automobile production and sales decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [45][50]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 100.81 (down 0.37% month - on - month and up 6.71% year - on - year). The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2669.7 million tons (up 9.96% month - on - month and up 3.41% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 iron ore ports was 2476.6 million tons (up 3.98% month - on - month and up 5.49% year - on - year) [57]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal was 240.66 million tons (up 0.34 million tons month - on - month and up 11.89 million tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 iron ore ports was 334.67 million tons (up 3.98% month - on - month and up 2.43% year - on - year). The inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 30.61 days (up 1.26% month - on - month and down 5.35% year - on - year) [62]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 iron ore ports was 13819.27 million tons (up 0.78% month - on - month and down 8.07% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 9136.4 million tons (up 1.37% month - on - month and up 0.73% year - on - year) [68]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 83.73% (down 0.19% month - on - month and down 7.14% year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants was 36.51% (up 0.80% month - on - month and down 11.32% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 16.51 million tons (up 16.60% month - on - month and up 18.28% year - on - year) [74]. - **Demand**: The daily coking coal auction transaction rate was 87.72% (up 9.46% week - on - week and up 27.37% year - on - year), and the weekly coking coal auction transaction rate was 82.08% (down 6.76% week - on - week and up 36.73% year - on - year) [76]. - **Coking Enterprise Situation**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was + 20 yuan/ton (up 36 yuan/ton month - on - month and up 57 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 74.34% (up 0.42% month - on - month and up 2.07% year - on - year) [82]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 829.31 million tons (down 0.45% month - on - month and up 23.53% year - on - year), the steel mill coking coal inventory was 805.60 million tons (down 0.36% month - on - month and up 11.43% year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 255.49 million tons (down 7.88% month - on - month and down 25.59% year - on - year). The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 39.31 million tons (down 11.92% month - on - month and down 13.98% year - on - year), the steel mill coke inventory was 609.8 million tons (down 1.53% month - on - month and up 14.24% year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 215.11 million tons (down 1.39% month - on - month and up 14.29% year - on - year) [88][94]. - **Spot Price**: The sixth round of coke price increases has been implemented, and the game between steel and coke enterprises continues [95]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar has widened, and the spread between rebar contracts 10 - 1 has continued to shrink. The spread between iron ore contracts 9 - 1 has continued to narrow, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has widened again [102][108].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The iron ore market shows a trend of increasing supply and demand, but the profit of steel mills is shrinking, and the fundamentals of iron ore are expected to weaken. The iron ore price is expected to continue the volatile adjustment, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2]. 3) Summary According to the Catalog Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the significant increase in supply and the volatile adjustment of ore prices [1]. Market Driving Logic - Both the supply and demand sides of iron ore have increased. The production of steel mills has stabilized, and the terminal consumption of ore has rebounded to a high level this year, showing good demand resilience, which supports the ore price. However, the profit of steel mills is shrinking, and the positive effect is weakening. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has increased, the shipments of miners have risen significantly to a high level this year, the overseas ore supply has increased, and domestic ore production has also recovered, resulting in an increase in ore supply. - Currently, the demand for iron ore has good resilience, which supports the ore price. But the supply has increased, and the incremental space for demand is limited. The fundamentals of ore are expected to weaken, and considering the relatively high valuation, the ore price is expected to continue the volatile adjustment [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The latest overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals have both decreased. Australia's shipments continued to decline due to mine maintenance, while Brazil's shipments rebounded. The daily average hot metal production increased slightly, mainly due to the improvement in the capacity utilization rate of previously restarted blast furnaces. Port inventories increased slightly, and the increase in steel mills' imported ore inventories was more obvious. The apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to weaken, and the decline in rebar consumption data was significant. From a fundamental perspective, the supply side is in the traditional off - season for overseas mines, and the pressure is not significant. The profitability rate of steel mills has begun to decline after raw material prices reached relatively high levels. Due to the slight weakening of terminal demand, the short - term upward increase in hot metal may be limited. After the continuous weakening of terminal demand, the short - term iron ore price may experience a slight adjustment. Additionally, the news of the suspension of production of independent rolling enterprises in Tangshan from mid - month to the military parade has a certain but relatively insignificant impact on the raw material price. Attention should be paid to whether blast furnace enterprises will follow suit [11][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The global total iron ore shipments were 30.467 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,100 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 25.303 million tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons. Australia's shipments were 16.625 million tons, a decrease of 1.177 million tons, and the shipments from Australia to China were 14.478 million tons, a decrease of 996,000 tons. Brazil's shipments were 8.678 million tons, an increase of 1.158 million tons. The total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 25.716 million tons, a decrease of 50,800 tons; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 23.819 million tons, a decrease of 125,900 tons [11]. - Demand: The daily average hot metal production was 2.4066 million tons, an increase of 3,400 tons from the previous week. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points from the previous week; the profitability rate of steel mills was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points from the previous week [11]. - Inventory: The total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in the country was 143.8157 million tons, an increase of 1.143 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.468 million tons, an increase of 103,500 tons [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Spread: The PB - Super Special powder spread was 127 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton. The Carajás - PB powder spread was 112 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9 yuan/ton. The Carajás - Jinbuba powder spread was 154 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) spread was - 7.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/ton [19][22]. - Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel: The pellet feed ratio was 15.13%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points from the previous period. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.2%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points from the previous period. The sinter feed ratio was 72.67%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points from the previous period. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,265 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton [25]. - Profit: The profitability rate of steel mills was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points from the previous week; the import profit of PB powder was - 10.49 yuan/wet ton [28]. 3.3 Inventory - The imported iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 138.1927 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 million tons. The pellet inventory was 324,690 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,130 tons. The iron concentrate inventory at ports was 1.09524 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,180 tons. The lump ore inventory at ports was 1.68774 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,970 tons. The Australian ore inventory at ports was 61.2753 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,570 tons. The Brazilian ore inventory at ports was 49.4084 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 68,770 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 91.364 million tons, an increase of 1.2306 million tons from the previous week [35][38][41][45]. 3.4 Supply Side - The latest shipments from Australia to China via 19 ports were 13.656 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.228 million tons. Brazil's shipments were 8.474 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.047 million tons. Rio Tinto's shipments to China were 5.841 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 573,000 tons. BHP's shipments to China were 4.191 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 874,000 tons. Vale's shipments were 5.666 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 270,000 tons. FMG's shipments to China were 2.666 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 253,000 tons. The arrivals at 45 ports were 23.819 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.259 million tons. In June, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 15.4151 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6103 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 61.21%, an increase of 2.59 percentage points from the previous period. The daily average production of iron concentrate in domestic mines was 47,790 tons, an increase of 2,020 tons from the previous period [50][53][56][59][65]. 3.5 Demand Side - The domestic daily average hot metal production was 2.4066 million tons, an increase of 3,400 tons from the previous week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.3467 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 128,200 tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.9852 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 380 tons [70][73]. 3.6 Basis - As of August 15, the calculated basis of iron ore IOC6 was 61.76 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 7.37% [78].