1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term commodity sentiment is being extremely interpreted, and attention should be paid to the possible inflection point of the sentiment. As an important meeting in July is approaching, the iron ore price is expected to turn into a volatile trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the overall sentiment of the black sector and the macro - economic realization. The iron ore price increase is due to the domestic commodity policy expectations and the profit space given by downstream industries under the condition of a not - bad short - term supply - demand situation. After the coking coal becomes overly strong, it squeezes the iron ore price, resulting in a decline in the iron ore price after the continuous sharp rise of coking coal this week [11][13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The global iron ore shipment volume was 31.091 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.22 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 25.52 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.068 million tons. The Australian shipment volume was 16.294 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.089 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 14.436 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.135 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 9.226 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.021 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 25.118 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.714 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 23.712 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.909 million tons [13]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output was 2.4223 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0021 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, unchanged from last week; the steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, a week - on - week increase of 3.47 percentage points [13]. - Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide was 143.9568 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1417 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2933 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0943 million tons [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price Difference: The PB - Super Special powder price difference was 126 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 1 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB powder price difference was 100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 3 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder price difference was 144 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 7 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price difference was - 13 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 1 yuan/ton [19][22]. - Feeding Ratio and Scrap Steel: The pellet feeding ratio was 15.22%, an increase of 0.25 percentage points from the previous period. The lump ore feeding ratio was 12.23%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points from the previous period. The sinter feeding ratio was 72.55%, a decrease of 0.37 percentage points from the previous period. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,285 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 80 yuan/ton. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 30 yuan/ton [25]. - Profit: The steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, a week - on - week change of + 3.47 percentage points; the PB powder import profit was - 4.74 yuan/wet ton [28]. - Freight: Information about international Baltic dry bulk shipping index and freight rates per country is presented in the figures but no summary data is given in the text. 3.3 Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 137.9038 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.0517 million tons. The pellet inventory was 390,290 tons, a week - on - week change of - 29,060 tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory at ports was 1.0815 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 950 tons. The lump ore inventory at ports was 1.6825 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 87,250 tons. The Australian ore port inventory was 61.9325 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.7543 million tons. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 47.786 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.5763 million tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8.88522 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.06306 million tons [35][38][41][45]. 3.4 Supply Side - Shipment Volume: The volume of Australian iron ore shipped to China through 19 ports was 13.854 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.015 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 9.078 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.974 million tons. Rio Tinto's shipment volume to China was 4.571 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.514 million tons. BHP's shipment volume to China was 4.6 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.755 million tons. Vale's shipment volume was 6.856 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.677 million tons. FMG's shipment volume to China was 2.79 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.79 million tons [50][53][56]. - Arrival Volume: The arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.712 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 2.909 million tons. The non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore import volume in China in June was 15.4151 million tons, a month - on - month change of - 2.6103 million tons [59]. - Domestic Mines: The domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 61.51%, a week - on - week change of + 0.57 percentage points. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 48,030 tons, a week - on - week change of + 450 tons [65]. 3.5 Demand Side - Pig Iron Output and Blast Furnace Utilization: The domestic daily average pig iron output was 2.4223 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0021 million tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, a week - on - week change of - 0.08 percentage points [70]. - Port Clearance and Steel Mill Consumption: The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.1515 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0759 million tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 3.011 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0015 million tons [73]. 3.6 Basis - As of July 25, the calculated iron ore IOC6 basis was 46.13 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 5.44% [78].

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore prices have shown a short-term rebound while the long-term supply and demand remain relatively loose [1] Supply Summary - Global iron ore shipments totaled 29.87 million tons this period, a decrease of 80,000 tons week-on-week [1] - Australian and non-mainstream shipments decreased, while Brazilian shipments increased [1] - Iron ore arrivals at 45 ports reached 26.62 million tons, an increase of 1.78 million tons week-on-week [1] Demand Summary - A survey of 247 steel mills indicated a blast furnace operating rate of 83.46%, up 0.31% week-on-week and 0.83% year-on-year [1] - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnace ironmaking was 90.89%, an increase of 0.99% week-on-week and 1.27% year-on-year [1] - Steel mill profit margins were at 60.17%, up 0.43% week-on-week and 28.14% year-on-year [1] - Daily average pig iron production was 2.4244 million tons, an increase of 26,300 tons week-on-week and 2.79% year-on-year [1] Inventory Summary - Total iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 137.85 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons week-on-week [1] - Daily average iron ore throughput at 45 ports was 3.2274 million tons, an increase of 32,300 tons week-on-week [1] Overall Market Outlook - The global shipment volume has slightly decreased while arrivals have increased; pig iron production is at a historical high, indicating resilient iron ore consumption [1] - Attention is needed on the intensity of steel consumption during the off-season [1] - The short-term price rebound is supported by macro sentiment and fundamentals, while the long-term outlook remains in a loose supply-demand balance [1]

Report Title - The report is titled "Weak Demand Pressure in the Off - season, Steel Prices Rise and Then Fall - Weekly Report 20250707" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The macro - economic environment shows enhanced expectations of warming policies, leading to a significant rebound in steel futures and spot prices. However, in the industrial aspect, the overall supply - demand structure continues to weaken during the high - temperature and rainy off - season. Steel prices are expected to face short - term correction pressure as the previous macro - positive sentiment fades [3][9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: In the previous week, due to the improved macro - atmosphere and enhanced expectations of capacity control, commodity prices generally rebounded. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major cities increased, with rebar in Shanghai rising by 90 yuan/ton to 3170 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil in Shanghai rising by 60 yuan/ton to 3250 yuan/ton. Futures prices also showed significant increases, with the RB01 contract rising by 88 yuan/ton to 3093 yuan/ton [9] - **Inventory Changes**: Rebar social inventory slightly increased, and hot - rolled coil total inventory increased for two consecutive weeks. Rebar total inventory decreased by 3.79 tons to 545.21 tons, while hot - rolled coil total inventory increased by 3.77 tons to 344.93 tons [9] 2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: National rebar weekly output was 221.08 tons (up 1.49% week - on - week, down 11.01% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil weekly output was 328.14 tons (up 0.28% week - on - week, up 0.57% year - on - year). Rebar production increased in both blast furnaces and electric furnaces, with blast furnace output at 195.24 tons (up 1.23% week - on - week, down 7.62% year - on - year) and electric furnace output at 25.84 tons (up 3.44% week - on - week, up 1.69% year - on - year). The blast furnace operating rate was 83.46% (down 0.43% week - on - week, up 0.42% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 66.87% (down 4.66% week - on - week, down 4.46% year - on - year) [15][17][22] - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 224.87 tons (up 2.26% week - on - week, down 4.42% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 324.37 tons (down 0.58% week - on - week, up 2.10% year - on - year). The 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 10.68 tons (up 8.23% week - on - week, down 16.56% year - on - year) [36] - **Inventory**: Rebar slightly reduced inventory, with social inventory increasing and factory inventory decreasing. Rebar factory inventory was 180.47 tons (down 2.76% week - on - week, down 6.81% year - on - year), social inventory was 364.74 tons (up 0.37% week - on - week, down 35.63% year - on - year), and total inventory was 545.21 tons (down 0.69% week - on - week, down 30.69% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil inventory increased for two consecutive weeks, with both factory and social inventory slightly rising. Hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 78.32 tons (up 0.13% week - on - week, down 13.31% year - on - year), social inventory was 266.61 tons (up 1.40% week - on - week, down 19.58% year - on - year), and total inventory was 344.93 tons (up 1.11% week - on - week, down 18.14% year - on - year) [40][45] - **Downstream Industries**: In the real estate sector, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 39.03% week - on - week and 2.42% year - on - year, and the transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 38.28% week - on - week and increased by 8.91% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in May 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.649 million and 2.686 million vehicles respectively, with month - on - month increases of 1.1% and 3.7%, and year - on - year increases of 11.6% and 11.2% [48][51] 3. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil decreased to 2417.8 tons (down 13.25% week - on - week, down 4.15% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2483.9 tons (up 5.12% week - on - week, down 10.89% year - on - year). The iron ore price index was 95.44 (up 3.38% week - on - week, down 13.70% year - on - year) [59] - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal decreased to 240.85 tons (down 1.44 tons week - on - week, up 1.53 tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume of 45 ports was 319.29 tons (down 2.04% week - on - week, up 1.87% year - on - year). The inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 29.65 days (up 0.95% week - on - week, down 5.63% year - on - year) [64] - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 0.37% week - on - week to 13878.4 tons, and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises increased by 0.80% week - on - week to 8918.57 tons. The average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises were 22.44 days (up 0.22% week - on - week, up 3.55% year - on - year) [70] 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines increased to 83.82% (up 1.62% week - on - week, down 6.90% year - on - year), the operating rate of coal - washing plants was 59.72% (up 1.05% week - on - week, down 14.48% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume increased by 64% week - on - week to 12.56 tons (down 19.13% year - on - year) [76] - **Demand**: The daily coking coal auction成交 rate was 79.17% (down 7% week - on - week, down 19.51% year - on - year), and the weekly成交 rate was 86.7% (up 23.31% week - on - week, down 2.87% year - on - year). The daily output of hot metal decreased to 240.85 tons (down 1.44 tons week - on - week, up 1.53 tons year - on - year) [78] - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants increased by 5.57% week - on - week to 716.49 tons, the port inventory of coking coal increased by 6.54% week - on - week to 304.27 tons, and the coking coal inventory of steel mills increased by 1.03% week - on - week to 789.43 tons. The coke inventory of independent coking plants decreased by 16.45% week - on - week to 61.6 tons, the coke port inventory decreased by 4.48% week - on - week to 191.12 tons, and the coke inventory of steel mills increased by 1.55% week - on - week to 637.49 tons [91][97] - **Spot Price**: After four rounds of price cuts, coke prices temporarily stabilized. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1180 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week, down 730 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang was 980 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week, down 820 yuan/ton year - on - year) [103] 5. Spread Analysis - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The basis of hot - rolled coil significantly contracted, and the spreads between the 10 - 1 contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil both contracted [105] - **Others**: The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore contracted, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar fluctuated within a narrow range [111]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for black metals shows mixed performance, with iron ore futures experiencing a strong upward trend, reaching a high of 770.0 yuan/ton and a gain of 2.07% [1] - Supply is rebounding while iron and steel production is seasonally weakening, leading to increased inventory at ports, which raises the risk of overvaluation for iron ore [1] - The recent increase in iron ore prices is supported by macroeconomic factors, with expectations of continued high-level fluctuations in prices [1] Group 2 - Demand for iron ore remains resilient due to profit-driven raw material needs, despite a current decline in iron and steel production [2] - Global iron ore shipments have decreased recently, primarily due to disruptions in Australian shipments, while port inventory is being depleted rapidly [2] - The short-term macro outlook is strong, with attention on the continued export of steel billets and the positive feedback effect on raw materials [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The iron ore market shows a weakening supply - demand pattern, with the price of iron ore expected to fluctuate weakly. The short - term view on the iron ore 2509 contract is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be in a state of oscillation, while the intraday trend is expected to be weakly oscillating. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the weakening supply - demand pattern leading to a weakly oscillating ore price [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Both the supply and demand sides of iron ore have weakened. During the off - season, more steel mills are undergoing inspections, and the terminal consumption of ore has begun to decline but remains at a high level for the year, providing some support for the ore price. At the same time, port arrivals have increased, but miners' shipments have continued to decrease significantly. After the end of the fiscal year, overseas ore supply has significantly shrunk, and domestic ore production has stabilized, resulting in a contraction of ore supply. After the "exemption period" ends, tariff disturbances have reappeared, weakening market sentiment. With the supply - demand dual - weak situation, the iron ore fundamentals are weakly stable, and the short - term ore price is likely to be under pressure and oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [3].

Group 1 - Global iron ore shipments totaled 29.949 million tons from June 30 to July 6, 2025, a decrease of 3.627 million tons compared to the previous period [1] - Shipments from Australia and Brazil amounted to 24.650 million tons, down 4.173 million tons, with Australia contributing 18.026 million tons, a decrease of 1.964 million tons [1] - The average daily shipment from Brazil was 1.8167 million tons, an increase of 9.77% compared to July of the previous year [1] Group 2 - The current iron ore fundamentals are acceptable, but futures valuations are significantly high, indicating a risk of decline if spot strength does not keep up [2] - Recent iron ore prices have been influenced by market sentiment, with both global shipments and arrivals declining, yet remaining at relatively high levels compared to previous years [3] - The long-term outlook suggests a gradual recovery in supply, relatively low demand, and a shift towards inventory accumulation at ports, maintaining an oversupply situation in the iron ore market [3]

万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 宏观窗口与情绪交织， 矿价宽幅震荡 铁矿石月报 从业资格号：F03133967 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 2025/07/04 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 黑色产业链示意图 月度要点小结 ◆ 供应：测算6月全球铁矿石发运周均值3431.85万吨，环比+222.45万吨；6月，澳洲发往中国周均值1758.03万吨，较上月变化+175.41万吨。 巴西发运量周均值834.55万吨，较上月变化+41.19万吨。测算45港到港量周均值2479.88万吨，较上月环比+127.20万吨。 ◆ 需求：测算6月日均铁水产量241.93万吨，较上月变化-1.84万吨。 ◆ 库存：6月末，全国45个港口进口铁矿库存13930.23万吨，较上月变化+63.65万吨；45港铁矿石日均疏港量周均值319.29万吨，较上月变化 +5.61万吨；钢厂进口铁矿石库存8847.47万吨，较上月末变化+93.14万吨。 ◆ 小结：展望7月，供给方面， ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore market is "Oscillating Weakly" for unilateral trading, while there are no ratings for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the overall supply of iron ore is on the rise. Affected by the resumption of production after steel mill inspections, the molten iron output increased slightly this week. Considering the current decent profits of steel mills, the iron ore consumption maintains resilience. The subsequent decline in molten iron output depends on the off - season demand for finished steel products and the profits of steel mills. Due to the increase in the number of ships berthed at ports, the iron ore inventory at ports decreased slightly. In the long run, the iron ore market still shows a pattern of relatively loose supply and demand. Attention should be continuously paid to the off - season molten iron output and changes in iron ore inventory [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price and Spread - This week, the iron ore futures price oscillated. As of the Friday close, the main contract of iron ore futures closed at 703 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from last week. The Mysteel 62% Australian powder forward price index was 93 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decline of 0.85%. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 710 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decline of 1.25% [1][5] Supply - Mysteel statistics show that the global iron ore shipment this period was 33.53 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.58 million tons. Among them, the shipment from Brazil increased, while those from Australia and non - mainstream regions decreased. The arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports this period was 23.845 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.248 million tons [1][8] Demand - Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills shows that the blast furnace operating rate was 83.82%, a week - on - week increase of 0.41% and a year - on - year increase of 1.01%; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.79%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year increase of 1.03%; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87% and a year - on - year increase of 7.36%; the daily average molten iron output was 2.4118 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0057 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.00224 million tons [1][10][11] Inventory - Mysteel statistics show that the total iron ore inventory at 45 ports nationwide was 138.9416 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3898 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports was 3.1356 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1231 million tons [1][13]

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议，请务必阅读文末免责条款。 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 13,894.16 -38.98 13,866.58 27.58 14,883.27 -989.11 247家钢厂进口矿库存 8,936.24 137.56 8,754.33 181.91 9,214.13 -277.89 45港铁矿石到货量 2,384.50 -224.80 2,151.30 233.20 2,207.40 177.10 全球19港铁矿石发货量 3,352.70 -157.70 3,188.70 164.00 3,455.00 -102.30 247家钢厂日均铁水产量 242.18 0.57 241.91 0.27 239.94 2.24 45港日均疏港量 313.56 12.31 326.68 -13.12 311.52 2.04 247家钢厂进口矿日耗 301.00 0.57 299.68 1.32 294.01 6.99 主港铁矿成交周均值 100.45 15.63 96.94 3.51 ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：I：铁矿石 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构 成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、 复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铁矿石产业链日报 2025/6/18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 695.50 | -3.50↓ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 685,064 | +9401↑ | | | I 9-1合约价差（元/吨） | 25 | -4.00↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) ...