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指数狂欢下的冷现实:超四成个股未回本,你的账户跑赢大盘了吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-24 23:36
Market Overview - A-shares have reached 3800 points, marking a nearly ten-year high, but retail investor participation is only one-third of levels seen during the 2015 and 2022 bull markets [1][3] - The recent index rise is primarily driven by heavyweight sectors like banking and insurance, rather than a broad-based rally [3][4] - Over 40% of stocks have not returned to their 2021 highs, and 58% of public funds issued during the bull market are still underwater [3] Investor Behavior - Many investors are hesitant to increase their positions due to fear of market peaks, while those who wish to redeem are concerned about missing further gains [3][4] - More than 60% of investors cannot clearly identify the top three holdings in their funds [3] Market Volatility - Historical data shows that the Shanghai Composite Index has an average volatility of 18.7% within three months after reaching 3800 points [3] - Recent market fluctuations have been significant, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a 1.91% intraday swing [4] Economic Transition - The macroeconomic shift from investment and export-driven growth to innovation-driven growth is causing rapid capital movement between sectors, contributing to market volatility [4] - The increasing scale of quantitative funds, projected to reach 2.1 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, is becoming a significant force in A-share trading [4][5] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors like banking and shipping are expected to perform relatively well during the pre-holiday period, while technology sectors may experience mixed performance [7][18] - The semiconductor sector is seeing a surge, with stocks like Huashuo Technology hitting consecutive trading limits [7][17] Valuation Insights - Despite increased market volatility, A-shares are not showing significant signs of bubble formation, with key valuation indicators remaining within reasonable ranges [9] - The market is supported by strong policy backing, with ongoing optimization of merger and acquisition policies and a focus on high-end manufacturing and AI [9] Investment Strategies - Diversification is emphasized as a key strategy, recommending a mix of stocks, bonds, and other assets to mitigate risks [11] - Regular investment strategies, such as dollar-cost averaging into index funds, are suggested to manage volatility [11][21] Future Outlook - The market may experience noticeable sector rotation around the National Day holiday, with historical data indicating limited sectors outperforming during this period [15] - The potential for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could positively impact A-shares and attract foreign investment [15][16]
坚持长期主义,建立未来产业投入增长机制
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-09-24 22:03
事实上,今天人形机器人已经成为全球科技巨头竞相角逐的"关键赛道"。从特斯拉的Optimus到波士顿 动力的Atlas,再到中国本土涌现出的一系列创新企业,全球范围内的产业竞赛已然打响。 客观地说,今天的人形机器人的"形"其实并不重要,此时再去争论技术路线选择也意义不大。更重要的 还是探索落地应用和产业发展的可能性,从市场需求中寻找到技术商业化的突围之路。 诚然,任何新兴产业在快速发展初期,都难免伴随着资本市场的热捧和些许泡沫。目前的人形机器人, 无论在成本还是应用场景方面,都尚未达到大规模商业化的引爆点,在技术成熟度上也还存在一些堵 点,比如高功率密度的关节模组、高动态的运动控制算法、高能效的动力系统以及与环境交互的智能感 知决策能力,每一项都是难啃的硬骨头。 但如果简单将"泡沫"与产业的长期价值混为一谈,也容易出现偏差。对于人形机器人这样一个集人工智 能、高端制造、新材料、精密传感等尖端科技于一体的"集大成者"而言,其发展注定是一场"长跑",而 非百米冲刺。 从发展阶段来看,人形机器人产业目前还处于起步阶段,关键的技术创新毫无疑问依然还是核心。在这 个阶段,大量的研发投入、技术试错和资本汇聚,不仅是正常的, ...
牛市行情启动已经一年!你翻了几倍?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-24 16:22
· 创业板指实现翻倍,把2021年以来的"熊市阴影"一扫而空; · 科创50暴涨126%,硬科技成为锋利主线; 2024年9月24日,A股市场在政策利好的强力推动下,当日上证指数暴涨4.15%,创业板指飙升5.54%, 两市成交突破1.1万亿元,一轮被记入A股史册的"924"行情就此点火。 一年之后,当日历再次翻到9月24日,大盘用一组"硬核"数据为这段行情盖上了验收章: · 上证指数从2770点起步,最高3899点,区间涨幅39.0%,创2015年以来最大年度升幅; · 深证成指上涨65%,重新站上13000点; · 北证50一骑绝尘,近一年涨幅超160%,为"小巨人"写下注脚。 行情爆发: 政策驱动下的估值修复 "924行情"的启动堪称迅猛。2024年9月24日,国新办举行新闻发布会,央行、金融监管总局、证监会联 合宣布一系列重磅金融政策,涵盖总量宽松、房地产支持、资本市场提振、科创投资鼓励及小微企业扶 持等多个领域。两天后,中央政治局会议进一步定调,明确提出"努力提振资本市场,大力引导中长期 资金入市"。政策暖风频吹,投资者大幅提振,A股市场迎来显著估值修复。 风浪越大鱼越贵,波动越大赚越多? 七禾网免 ...
“9·24”一周年:A股股民人均赚超4万,新增开户三千万
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-09-24 12:28
2024年9月24日,国新办一场关于金融支持经济高质量发展的新闻发布会,触发A股迎来"史诗级反 弹"——上证指数6个交易日内一度大涨近千点。"9·24"行情一周年,政策与信心共同铸就了A股市场新 蜕变,行情走势也逐渐从"脉冲式反弹"到"结构性慢牛"。 同时,监管部门通过更严格的退市标准,加大对"害群之马""空壳僵尸"出清力度,相关公司股价大幅下 跌。过去一年,紫天科技股价出现"脚踝斩",*ST苏吴(600200)(江苏吴中)、*ST高鸿(000851) (高鸿股份)跌幅超80%,*ST东通(300379)(东方通)、*ST中地(000736)(中交地产)股价同 样"腰斩"。前四家公司均涉及财务造假,其中紫天科技已经进入退市整理期交易;中交地产则因资不抵 债,被实施退市风险警示。 科技股领跑,电子行业市值超越银行 数据显示,截至9月23日,过去一年A股总市值从68万亿元攀升至104万亿元,增加36万亿元;上证指数 累计上涨39%,深证成指涨62.3%,而创业板、科创50、北证50指数涨幅均超100%,涨幅全球领先,且 科技股领跑。 其中,超1400只个股股价实现翻倍,个人投资者与长期资金双向涌入,A股新增投资者 ...
A股“长假定律”背后的秘密
和讯· 2025-09-24 09:55
文/李悦 "9·24"行情一周年之际,A股再现强势,创业板指盘中再创3年多新高,科创50指数一度涨近5%, 全市场超4400只个股上涨。 过了"9·24",国庆节假期就在眼前,A股市场将步入关键窗口期。国庆节前后A股市场有何"日历效 应"? 从历史规律看,A股市场在国庆长假前后存在明显的"日历效应"。 根据过去10年数据统计,国庆节 前A股通常面临调整。过去10年国庆节前5个交易日上证指数中位数跌幅达1.45%,有8年在前5个交 易日下跌,下跌概率达80%。 国投证券认为, 历年国庆节前市场基本节奏为小幅调整,原因在于投资者担心持有证券过节会发生 预期外的风险,会选择变现、买入货基或逆回购过节,此外部分投资者也会将基金份额变现以支持国 庆期间消费 。 数据显示,从过去10年国庆节前5个交易日表现来看,A股通常面临调整,上证指数下跌概率80%, 而国庆节 后 5个交易日上涨概率达60%。 招商证券分析认为,国庆节前市场交投相对清淡,部分资金在避险需求下流出,导致市场表现不佳。 然而,国庆节后市场风险偏好改善,主要指数往往迎来反弹。 对于后市,在华西证券看来,唯有"慢牛"才是"长牛",A股慢牛的逻辑并未改变:中国 ...
A500ETF嘉实(159351)红盘蓄势,成分股东方明珠、通富微电等10cm涨停
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-24 02:14
Group 1: A500ETF Performance - A500ETF Jia Shi has a turnover rate of 2.53% and a transaction volume of 293 million yuan as of September 23 [3] - Over the past year, A500ETF Jia Shi has seen a significant scale growth of 9.371 billion yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The net value of A500ETF Jia Shi has increased by 17.45% in the past year [3] - Since its inception, A500ETF Jia Shi achieved a maximum monthly return of 11.71%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being 4 months and a maximum increase of 22.93% [3] - The average return during the rising months is 4.07%, and the annualized return over the past three months has exceeded the benchmark by 7.48% [3] Group 2: Market Outlook - Institutions suggest that market fluctuations will continue to be the main theme in the near term, recommending a focus on representative broad-based index products to navigate high volatility [3] - Huaxi Securities indicates that a "slow bull" market is the only sustainable long-term trend, with the logic of a slow bull in A-shares remaining unchanged [3] - Chinese companies are demonstrating top-tier productivity in fields such as artificial intelligence, biomedicine, and high-end manufacturing [3] - The "anti-involution" efforts are gradually validating expectations for profit improvement, while domestic demand continues to be stimulated with consumption policies leaning towards service consumption [3] - Capital market policies are still providing strong support for stabilizing the stock market [3] Group 3: Top Holdings in A500 Index - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI A500 Index include Kweichow Moutai, CATL, Ping An Insurance, China Merchants Bank, Zijin Mining, Industrial Bank, Eastmoney, Midea Group, Neway, and Yangtze Power, collectively accounting for 19.11% of the index [4] - The individual weightings of the top stocks are as follows: Kweichow Moutai (3.87%), CATL (2.89%), Ping An Insurance (2.60%), China Merchants Bank (2.47%), Industrial Bank (1.69%), Yangtze Power (1.60%), Midea Group (1.54%), Zijin Mining (1.40%), BYD (1.30%), and Eastmoney (1.27%) [6] - Investors without stock accounts can access the A500ETF Jia Shi linked fund (022454) for exposure to the top 500 A-share companies [6]
A股收评:沪指小幅下跌0.18%,创业板指探底回升收涨0.21%,旅游酒店板块重挫
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-23 07:35
Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.18% at 3821 points, briefly dipping below 3800 points during the session [1][13] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.29%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.21%. The total trading volume for the day was 2.52 trillion yuan, an increase of 376 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][13] Sector Performance - The tourism and hotel sector saw significant declines, with stocks like Yunnan Tourism and Huatian Hotel hitting the daily limit down [2][12] - The real estate sector also faced downturns, with Electronic City hitting the limit down, and several other stocks dropping over 7% [2][12] - The internet e-commerce sector weakened, with stocks such as Cross-Border Communication and Qingmu Technology falling over 5% [2][10] - Conversely, the port and shipping sector rebounded, with Nanjing Port and Ningbo Shipping both hitting the limit up, and Ningbo Ocean rising over 7% [2][6] Banking Sector - The banking sector performed well against the market trend, with Nanjing Bank rising over 4%, and other major banks like Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China increasing by over 3% [4][5] - As of June 2023, China's banking industry had total assets nearing 470 trillion yuan, ranking first in the world [4] Medical Services - The medical services sector continued its downward trend, with Zhaoyan New Drug falling over 6%, and other companies like MediWest and New Journey dropping more than 5% [8][9] - MediWest's subsidiary faced a lawsuit due to delivery delays, with the amount involved exceeding 159 million yuan [8] Shipping and Logistics - The global shipping sector saw a boost with the launch of the first China-Europe Arctic container express route, significantly reducing shipping times to Europe [6][7] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market may experience short-term fluctuations, but the medium-term trend remains upward. Focus may shift towards high-end manufacturing and companies with profit elasticity amid changing policies [12][13]
V型反转极限上演!“上涨先锋”创业板ETF天弘(159977)尾盘深“V”反弹翻红,强势冲击百亿规模
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-23 07:27
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant growth and performance of the ChiNext ETF Tianhong (159977), which saw a 0.37% increase in closing price and a notable inflow of funds amounting to 2.68 billion yuan over the last five trading days [3] - The ChiNext index is characterized as a leading indicator in the A-share market, with a high proportion of emerging industries and high-tech enterprises, making it an attractive investment opportunity for growth during the A-share recovery process [3] - As of September 22, the ChiNext ETF Tianhong (159977) experienced a scale increase of 8.83 billion yuan and a share increase of 30.30 billion shares over the past two weeks, indicating strong investor interest [3] Group 2 - According to the China Securities Regulatory Commission, over 90% of newly listed companies in recent years are technology enterprises or have high technological content, with the market capitalization of the technology sector now exceeding 25% of the total A-share market [4] - The number of technology companies among the top 50 by market capitalization has increased from 18 at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan to 24 currently, reflecting a growing emphasis on technology within the market [4] Group 3 - CICC believes that the current market is supported by strong macroeconomic resilience, improving corporate profitability, attractive global valuations, and enhanced liquidity, establishing a long-term positive trend [5] - Since the second half of this year, the A-share market has exhibited diverse sector rotations, with growth sectors, particularly those related to AI and hard technology, leading the market's upward movement [5] - Institutional investors are actively entering the market, focusing on sectors benefiting from industrial trends, such as AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, with expectations that future capital allocation will favor industries with solid fundamentals and long-term advantages [5]
市场震荡整理,银行板块逆势走强,红利低波100ETF(159307)连续9日“吸金”合计1.19亿元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-23 05:25
Group 1 - The core index, the CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index, experienced a decline of 0.62% as of September 23, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [2] - Notable gainers included Nanjing Bank, which rose by 4.11%, while Yuyuan Inc. led the declines with a drop of 3.68% [2] - The CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF (159307) decreased by 0.48%, with a latest price of 1.04 yuan, but showed a cumulative increase of 2.29% over the past three months [2] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China highlighted significant achievements in the financial sector, including comprehensive deepening of financial system reforms and modernization of financial governance [3] - The financial services quality, efficiency, and inclusiveness have significantly improved, with a focus on orderly resolution of financial risks [3] - According to Dongfang Securities, the market is currently in a short-term adjustment phase but maintains a medium-term upward trend, with potential focus on high-end manufacturing and low-cycle dividend opportunities [3] Group 3 - The CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past nine days, totaling 119 million yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 26.66 million yuan [5] - The index tracks 100 stocks characterized by good liquidity, continuous dividends, high dividend yields, and low volatility, reflecting the overall performance of such securities [5] - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 20.4% of the total index weight, including companies like Shanxi Coking Coal and Sinopec [5]
“压舱石”效应凸显:红利低波ETF(512890)半日成交2.79亿领跑 近60日吸金超21亿元
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-09-23 04:39
Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a significant decline on September 23, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping over 1% and falling below 3800 points, while the Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) showed resilience by increasing 0.09% to 1.151 yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1][2]. Fund Performance - The Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) had a trading price of 1.151 yuan, with a slight increase of 0.09% and a turnover rate of 1.38%, achieving a half-day trading volume of 279 million yuan, leading among similar ETFs [1][2]. - Over the past five trading days, the ETF saw a net inflow of 257 million yuan, with a total net inflow of 3 billion yuan over the last 20 trading days and 21.53 billion yuan over the last 60 trading days, indicating strong demand [2][3]. Historical Performance - As of September 22, 2025, the Dividend Low Volatility ETF has achieved a cumulative return of 129.82% since its inception in December 2018, outperforming its benchmark and ranking 77th among 502 similar products [7]. - The fund has consistently delivered positive returns each year from 2019 to 2024, showcasing its strong volatility resistance and stable performance [7]. Investment Strategy - Analysts suggest that investors consider a systematic investment approach to participate in the Dividend Low Volatility ETF, which can serve as a key component for stable returns in asset allocation [7].