专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"！机构称A股迎全球资本涌入的大牛市 11月28日，2025分析师大会暨第七届新浪财经"金麒麟"最佳分析师颁奖盛典在上海隆重举行。本次大会 汇聚逾300名权威学者、公私募基金负责人、上市公司董事长、顶级基金经理与首席分析师，共同探讨 中国资本市场的未来发展机遇。 11月28日，2025分析师大会暨第七届新浪财经"金麒麟"最佳分析师颁奖盛典在上海隆重举行。本次大会 汇聚逾300名权威学者、公私募基金负责人、上市公司董事长、顶级基金经理与首席分析师，共同探讨 中国资本市场的未来发展机遇。 在备受瞩目的"金麒麟"评选环节，中信建投证券许光坦团队荣膺机器人及高端制造领域"菁英分析师"称 号。首席分析师许光坦在大会期间接受独家专访，深入阐述了人形机器人的发展前景与高端制造的投资 脉络。 针对新能源汽车企业如特斯拉、小鹏等纷纷布局人形机器人的现象，许光坦表示，车企进入这一领域具 有天然优势，也是行业发展的必然趋势。他指出，特斯拉作为行业"鲶鱼"，在短短两三年内推动了人形 机器人领域的快速发展，其影响力远超过去二三十年。 许光坦分析称，车企进军机器人领域主要具备三大优势： 一是技术 ...

技术自主创新，填补国内空白 全动压空气轴承，作为高精尖装备制造的核心部件，以其零接触、无磨损、高精度等特性，被誉为轴承 工业的"皇冠明珠"。 长期以来，该技术受制于国际技术垄断和封锁及禁售，成为我国航空航天、半导体制造等战略产业发展 的瓶颈。 中国发展网讯 记者田新元报道 11月28日，"全球首创全动压空气轴承产业化成果发布会"在北京首钢园 香格里拉酒店举行。此次盛会标志着我国在超精密制造领域取得了重大突破，成功打破了国外长期的技 术封锁，实现了全动压空气轴承技术的自主可控与产业化应用。 中国工程院、中国科学院的多位院士全程给予指导，电科芯片（600877）（600877）、安泰科技 （000969）（000969）等公司多位领导亲临现场，围绕全动压空气轴承技术创新与产业发展进行了深入 交流，为项目的高质量发展提供了宝贵建议。同时，多家行业骨干企业作为协办单位参与其中，共同见 证了这一产业成果的发布，并就产业链协同发展路径进行了探讨。 战略签约合作，推动产业化进程 发布会现场举行了隆重的战略签约仪式，多家产业链上下游企业达成合作。 这一举措不仅促进了全动压空气轴承技术的产业化应用与市场推广，更为我国在高端制造 ...

申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您的财富保驾护航。 以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者司伟杰 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 摘要 12 月的上涨概率略大于下跌概率，且价值风格跑赢小市值的成长风格，因此建议投资者抓大放小，追求确定性。同时重点关注两个信号， 一个是成交量能否重回 2 万亿以上，另一个则是重点指数能否突破 11 月的最高点，形成趋势的逆转 三、操作建议： 一、行情回顾： 市场如同季节更替一般，随着冷空气进入秋冬季节。 11 月开始，寒意逐渐加重。本月各大指数普跌，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指、科 创板综指分别下跌 1.67% 、 2.95% 、 4.23% 、 4.03% ，大盘蓝筹稍强，科技成长方向跌幅最大。三大指数（沪深京）日均成交额约 1.86 万亿元，较 10 月环比下降约 15% ，市场观望情绪越发浓厚。技术面来看，除上证指数仍坚挺之外，科技方向的创业板和科创板指 数则出现月线级别的顶分型（即：本月的最高点低于上月最高点，本月的最低点低于上月的最低点）呈现一定的回调迹象。 二、市场分析： 当前矛盾点在于：市场连续上涨后有回调 ...

Group 1: Consumer Sector - The government has implemented substantial measures to boost consumption, focusing on smart products, green energy, and products for the elderly [1] - The fourth round of "trade-in" subsidies is accelerating, targeting home appliances, digital products, and home decoration, with a deadline for consumers to act by December 31 [1] Group 2: Alcohol and Pharmaceutical E-commerce - A company specializing in both liquor and pharmaceutical e-commerce has seen revenue growth of nearly 30%, with high gross margins due to increased demand during year-end banquets [1] - The pharmaceutical e-commerce segment benefits from stricter regulations, providing a competitive edge, while innovative drugs are in phase three clinical trials, indicating strong cash flow and a low price-to-earnings ratio compared to peers [1] Group 3: Prepared Dishes and New Retail - A company focused on prepared dishes and new retail is experiencing rapid market growth, with the market size exceeding 600 billion, although its actual revenue contribution is only over 10% [3] - The main business remains traditional retail with lower gross margins, and new production facilities for prepared dishes will not be operational until 2026, posing risks for large investments [3] Group 4: Healthcare Sector - Companies specializing in cold medicine are expected to see revenue spikes during the flu season, with over 40% of their revenue coming from this period, but they have low R&D investment, limiting long-term growth potential [3] Group 5: Elderly Care and AI Medical Services - A company focusing on elderly care and AI medical services has seen over 50% revenue growth in community care and rehabilitation, with AI diagnostic systems implemented in numerous grassroots hospitals [5] - The company has high R&D investment compared to industry averages, but its diverse business lines contribute limited short-term profits, making it suitable for long-term investment [5] Group 6: Private Hospitals and Smart Medical Services - A company operating in private hospitals, smart medical services, and coal has seen over 30% revenue growth in private hospitals, with stable cash flow from coal operations [6] - The company has a diversified risk profile but lacks a core growth engine, making it suitable for conservative investors [6] Group 7: High-end Manufacturing - The high-end manufacturing sector is receiving strong policy support, with a focus on industrial mother machines, which are expected to modernize by 2027 [6] - A company producing CNC machines has reported over 60% profit growth in the first three quarters, with a nearly 40% year-on-year increase in industrial mother machine revenue [6] Group 8: New Energy and Digital Economy - The new energy and digital economy sectors are experiencing explosive growth, with data trading becoming a national focus and data center capacity reaching 500 PB [8] - The company involved in data business has seen revenue double, with stable cash flow from cement operations and lower valuations compared to peers, indicating potential for increased profitability if the data business model is successful [8]

刘宇航：在跨境电商、高端制造、生鲜贸易等行业重点领域带动下，10月民航国际货邮运输量增速 超过20%。1月至10月中欧、中亚班列累计开行2.8万列，同比增长7.8%，港口集装箱吞吐量同比增长 6.4%。 1月至10月，重点物流企业物流业务收入同比增长4.4%，增速连续三个月保持基本稳定。同时物流 企业盈利能力增强，持续推进成本控制。重点物流企业收入利润率仍维持3.3%，与前三季度基本持 平。 中国物流信息中心主任刘宇航：10月份，新能源汽车、汽车用锂离子电池等绿色产品物流量分别增 长19.3%、30.4%，显著高于社会物流总额平均水平。 1月至10月，物流业总收入11.8万亿元，同比增长4.5%。运输物流结构持续调整优化。国际物流中 新兴市场成为主要增长点。 央广网北京11月30日消息（记者张棉棉 潘嵘）据中央广播电视总台中国之声《新闻和报纸摘要》 报道，中国物流与采购联合会日前发布，1月至10月，我国社会物流总额达293.7万亿元，同比增长 5.1%。高端化、绿色化制造拉动作用显著。 从结构看，工业品物流总额同比增长5.3%，占社会物流总额的比重88%，其中装备制造、高端制造 等领域拉动增长的核心动力依然较 ...

Group 1 - Vanke's stock and bond prices have significantly declined, with multiple bonds suspended due to sharp drops. "21 Vanke 02" closed down over 57%, "21 Vanke 06" down over 46%, and "22 Vanke 02" down over 42%. Vanke's H-shares fell nearly 8%, hitting a historical low, while Vanke A shares dropped over 7%, marking an 11-year low [2] - Six major state-owned banks collectively suspended five-year large-denomination certificates of deposit, with smaller banks following suit in adjusting long-term deposit products. This move is part of a broader effort by the National Development and Reform Commission to regulate market pricing and prevent unfair competition [2] - The scale of private equity funds reached a record high of 22.05 trillion yuan by the end of October, an increase of 1.31 trillion yuan from September, indicating a growing attractiveness and activity in the private equity sector [2] Group 2 - The first batch of leading smart factories in China has been announced, with 15 companies selected across key industries such as equipment manufacturing and consumer goods. This marks a significant transition towards intelligent manufacturing, expected to enhance production efficiency and quality [3] - Publicly offered Hong Kong stock funds saw both scale and holdings increase in the third quarter, with total assets reaching 1,033 billion yuan, a 68% increase from the second quarter. The stock position of these funds rose to 92.71%, up 0.75 percentage points [3] - The number of newly established index-enhanced funds has surged over 400% year-on-year, with 160 new products launched this year, raising over 88.84 billion yuan. This growth is driven by policy support, improved index systems, and increasing investor demand [4] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates a risk of economic slowdown, with most districts reporting stable economic activity, while some noted slight declines. The overall outlook remains unchanged, but concerns about a potential slowdown in the coming months are growing [5] - Hedge funds have shifted from short to long positions, with net purchases of U.S. stocks reaching a six-month high over two days. This marks a significant reversal in the de-leveraging trend observed in the market [5]

Group 1 - The overall direction of the A-share market is still in a bull market, but it may enter a wide fluctuation phase in the short term. Compared to previous bull markets, there is still considerable room for index growth, but the duration of the bull market may be more important than the magnitude of the increase under the government's guidance for a "slow bull" policy [1][3] - In November, major A-share indices generally declined, with the STAR 50 index experiencing the largest drop of 7.1%, while the Shanghai 50 index saw the smallest decline of 1.3%. The performance across industries showed significant differentiation, with sectors like comprehensive, banking, and media leading in gains [2] - The Hong Kong stock market also experienced fluctuations in November, influenced by expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and concerns over AI bubbles. The Hang Seng Index and other indices showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Technology Index declining by 4.9% [2] Group 2 - In terms of investment strategy, short-term focus should be on defensive and consumer sectors, while mid-term attention should remain on TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors. During the fluctuation phase, previously lagging sectors may perform better, particularly high-dividend and consumer sectors [3] - For the Hong Kong market, a "dumbbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on technology growth and high-dividend stocks. The market's overall profitability remains strong, and despite recent gains, valuations are still relatively low, making long-term investment attractive [4][5] - Specific areas of interest include domestic policies supporting self-sufficiency in technology, chip manufacturing, and high-end manufacturing, as well as independent internet technology companies with their own growth potential [5]

Market Performance - In November, A-shares experienced a general decline, with the ChiNext 50 index dropping the most by 7.1%, while the Shanghai 50 index fell the least by 1.3% [7] - The Hong Kong stock market also showed volatility, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 0.1% and the Hang Seng Technology Index decreasing by 4.9% as of November 26, 2025 [7] A-share Outlook - The market is believed to still be in a bull phase, but may enter a period of wide fluctuations in the short term. There is significant room for index growth compared to previous bull markets, but the focus may shift to the duration of the bull market rather than the magnitude of gains [8] - Short-term attention should be on defensive and consumer sectors, while TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors should be monitored in the medium term [8] Hong Kong Stock Outlook - The expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December may lead to continued upward volatility in the Hong Kong stock market. The overall profitability of Hong Kong stocks remains strong, with relatively low valuations despite recent increases [9] - A "barbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on sectors such as autonomous control, chips, and high-end manufacturing, as well as independent internet technology companies and high-dividend, low-volatility stocks in sectors like telecommunications and utilities [9]

Market Overview - In November, the A-share market experienced a general decline, with the STAR Market 50 index dropping the most by 7.1%, while the Shanghai 50 index fell the least by 1.3%. Other major indices such as CSI 300, ChiNext, and CSI 1000 saw declines of -2.7%, -4.5%, and -3.4% respectively. The performance across industries showed significant divergence, with sectors like comprehensive services, banking, and media leading in gains [1][8][10] - The Hong Kong stock market also showed a volatile trend in November, influenced by fluctuations in the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and increasing concerns over the AI bubble. As of November 26, 2025, the Hang Seng Hong Kong 35 index rose by 1.1%, while the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index saw minimal changes of 0.1% and -0.1%, respectively. The Hang Seng Technology Index dropped by 4.9% [1][10][11] A-share Insights - The market is believed to still be in a bull phase, but may enter a period of wide fluctuations in the short term. Compared to previous bull markets, there remains considerable room for index growth, but the emphasis on a "slow bull" policy may prioritize the duration of the bull market over its magnitude. Short-term catalysts appear weak, leading to a potential focus on defensive and consumer sectors, while TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors are recommended for mid-term attention [2][13][14][16][19] - In the context of market fluctuations, defensive sectors such as banking, utilities, and coal, along with consumer sectors like food and beverage, are highlighted as potential areas for investment. Historical trends suggest that previously lagging sectors may perform better during periods of market turbulence [16][17] Hong Kong Market Insights - The outlook for the Hong Kong market remains positive, with expectations of continued upward movement due to strong overall profitability and relatively low valuations. The "dumbbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on technology growth and high dividend stocks. Key areas of interest include domestic policies supporting self-sufficiency in chips and high-end manufacturing, as well as independent internet technology companies [3][21][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of high dividend, low volatility strategies, particularly in sectors such as telecommunications, utilities, and banking, which can provide stable returns [21][24] Stock Recommendations - For December 2025, the A-share stock selection includes: Sunlord Electronics, Zhongji Xuchuang, Huayou Cobalt, Sinopec, PetroChina, Zhengguang Co., Haier Smart Home, Hengli Hydraulic, Hangcha Group, and Goldwind Technology [26][27] - The recommended stocks for the Hong Kong market include: Tencent Holdings, China Mobile, China Tower, CNOOC Services, Huiju Technology, Sinopec Engineering, and AIA Group [30][31]

Group 1: High-end Manufacturing and Security - The defense industry is entering a new cycle driven by both domestic demand and external potential, focusing on information technology, intelligent equipment, and emerging fields like military trade and deep space economy [2] - The machinery sector is expected to undergo a value reassessment and technological empowerment, with a focus on robotics and autonomous driving, alongside a push for core technology breakthroughs [2] - The electric power and new energy sectors are witnessing a new growth cycle, with lithium battery storage demand surging and the photovoltaic market stabilizing [2] - The home appliance industry is focusing on policy subsidies, technological transformation, and overseas expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America [2] - The automotive sector is experiencing rapid technological advancements in smart driving and hybrid technologies, with a focus on export opportunities and collaboration with tech companies [2] Group 2: Real Estate and Banking - The real estate market is stabilizing, with key cities expected to see price stabilization driven by household balance sheet recovery and supportive policies [3] - The banking sector is entering a new profit cycle, with stable interest margins supporting long-term profitability, and a focus on undervalued shares and quality city commercial banks [4] Group 3: Securities and Insurance - The securities industry is benefiting from wealth management trends, with a focus on stable earnings and international expansion as a long-term narrative [5] - The insurance sector is characterized by high elasticity, with investment-driven profit growth and a focus on regulatory compliance and risk management [6] Group 4: Construction and Chemicals - The construction industry is expected to stabilize with government debt management and new infrastructure projects, focusing on regional coordination and green development [10] - The chemical sector is entering a recovery phase, with a focus on high-quality enterprises and strategic investments in various chains [10][12] Group 5: Utilities and Environmental Protection - The utilities sector is seeing steady growth in electricity demand, with a focus on high-dividend investments in water and coal power [13] - The environmental protection sector is benefiting from policy adjustments and technological advancements, with a focus on improving profitability in water and waste management [16] Group 6: Capital Markets and Financial Innovation - The capital market is exploring new paths for empowering inclusive finance, focusing on small and micro-enterprise support and rural revitalization [21] - The green certificate market is expected to grow significantly, driven by policy support and increasing demand for renewable energy [22] Group 7: E-commerce and Retail - The retail sector is experiencing structural changes driven by AI, with a focus on rational competition and the globalization of Chinese brands [23] Group 8: Bonds and Financial Engineering - The convertible bond market is expected to see continued growth, driven by demand for fixed income and equity market expectations [25] - The quantitative investment sector is gaining traction, with a focus on unique strategies and the development of fixed income products [27]