软银集团创始人孙正义清仓英伟达一事热度不减，据智通财经消息，当地时间12月1日，孙正义在东京举行的论坛上，就清仓英伟达股票一事首次作出公开 回应。称"我一股都不想卖。我只是更需要钱去投资OpenAI和其他项目。卖英伟达的时候，我都哭了。" 软银与OpenAI的合作关系可以追溯到去年9月，双方的投资协议规模不断扩大。今年3月，软银完成了对OpenAI价值400亿美元的首轮投资。随后在10月，双 方又签署了修订协议，软银承诺全额追加225亿美元的投资。 不过，资本市场却用脚投了票，交易所数据显示，软银集团股价自11月以来持续下挫，从最高90美元跌至最低47.58美元，接近"腰斩"，市值蒸发超1700亿 美元，约合人民币1.2万亿元。 上个月，软银集团抛售了所持有的全部英伟达股份，套现58.3亿美元（约合人民币412.28亿元）引发市场关注，彼时加剧了"AI泡沫论"危机。消息传出后英 伟达股价下跌，市值一夜蒸发千亿美元。 昨日，孙正义在论坛上详细阐述了出售英伟达股票的原因，软银之所以清仓全部英伟达持仓，纯粹是为了筹集资金，用于数据中心建设等关键项目。"我一 股都不想卖，只是更需要钱去投资OpenAI和其他项目"，孙 ...

值得注意的是，连英伟达CEO黄仁勋本人也在持续减持，年内套现超10亿美元。一边是巨头疯狂加码， 一边是监管与空头频频示警，AI狂潮正站在十字路口。 孙正义的眼泪，究竟是战略远见，还是泡沫前夜的无奈？时间终将给出答案 尽管英伟达年内股价飙升超48%，市值一度突破5万亿美元，但孙正义坦言："不是不想留，是太需要现 金了。" 他透露，这笔资金将全力投入对OpenAI的225亿美元追加投资，用于建设AI数据中心等重资产项 目。"如果能无限融资，我一股都不会卖。"他在东京一场论坛上强调，并反呛市场"泡沫论"："说AI是 泡沫的人，根本不懂未来。" 然而，质疑声并未平息。英国央行、IMF及华尔街"大空头"迈克尔·伯里均警告：当前AI估值已逼近2000 年互联网泡沫水平，甚至有分析称"泡沫规模是当年的17倍"。 "我是一边哭一边卖的！"近日，日本首富、软银集团创始人孙正义罕见动情回应清仓英伟达股票一事， 引发全球资本市场震动。 据披露，软银已于2025年10月以58.3亿美元（约合人民币415亿元）的价格，抛售其持有的全部3210万 股英伟达股份。 ...

12月1日，软银集团创始人孙正义首次就清仓英伟达作出公开回应，并谈及对"AI泡沫论"的看法。 孙正义表示，若公司拥有无限的资金来支持其在人工智能领域的下一轮投资，包括对OpenAI的大额押 注，那么他本不会卖出英伟达的股份。 孙正义说："如果可以的话，我一股英伟达都不想卖。我只是更需要钱去投OpenAI和其他项目。卖英伟 达的时候，我是哭着卖的。" 孙正义还表示，谈论人工智能投资泡沫的人"不够聪明"。他指出，如果人工智能长期来看能创造全球 GDP的10%，那么即使累计投入数万亿美元，也完全值得。"泡沫在哪里？"他问道。 来源：中国基金报、智通财经 2025.12.02 本文字数：369，阅读时长大约1分钟 （注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将严格保密。） 第一财经持续追踪财经热点。若您掌握公司动态、行业趋势、金融事件等有价值的线索，欢迎提供。专 用邮箱：bianjibu@yicai.com 微信编辑| 七三 ...

来源：市场资讯 【国联民生海外 | 美股科技行业点评】从全球科技巨头最新财报看AI泡沫论 来源：声鸣海外 Global 报告摘要 事件：芝加哥联储古尔斯比警告AI投资热潮现投机泡沫迹象。芝加哥联邦储备银行行长古尔斯比在 2025年10月讲话中指出AI投资狂热可能已出现过热迹象。 AI泡沫论兴起的主流观点是ROI缺口。头部科技公司CapEx激增而AI收入目前无法跟上。微软、谷歌、 Meta、亚马逊等科技公司每年投入数千亿美元购GPU和建设数据中心。空头认为为了收回这些成本， AI行业每年需要产生数千亿美元的增量收入，然而目前头部AI公司收入体量和CapEx之间有着较大鸿沟 （2025年底OpenAI ARR约200亿美元，Anthropic ARR约90亿美元）。 最新财报情况来看，头部科技公司资本开支加速，云和广告增长强劲。AI投入方面，头部科技公司资 本开支继续加速。头部科技公司2025三季度CapEx环比增长，CapEx合计突破1000亿美元。谷歌和Meta 上修2025年CapEx指引。四家公司均预计2026年CapEx将继续增长。AI产出方面，AI继续赋能头部科技 公司的云、电商、广告等业务。广告方面 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Federal Reserve President Goolsbee warns of signs of speculative bubbles in the AI investment frenzy, highlighting a significant gap between capital expenditures (CapEx) and AI revenue growth among leading tech companies [3]. Group 1: AI Investment and CapEx Trends - Leading tech companies are experiencing accelerated capital expenditures, with a combined CapEx exceeding $100 billion in Q3 2025, and expectations for continued growth into 2026 [4][7]. - Major companies like Google and Meta have revised their 2025 CapEx guidance upwards, indicating strong investment in AI infrastructure [7]. - The anticipated CapEx for Amazon in 2025 is approximately $125 billion, with expectations for further increases in 2026 [7]. Group 2: AI Revenue Growth and Business Impact - AI is significantly enhancing the cloud, e-commerce, and advertising sectors for leading tech companies, with Meta reporting a 30% increase in Instagram usage and a 14% reduction in cost per lead for advertisers using AI tools [9]. - Microsoft has seen a three-digit percentage increase in commercial orders, with AI functionalities reaching 900 million monthly active users [9]. - Google's AI-related product revenue has surged by over 200% year-on-year, while Amazon's AWS revenue growth has reached its highest level in 11 quarters at 20.2% [9]. Group 3: Concerns Over AI Bubble and ROI - Market concerns regarding an AI bubble stem from the mismatch between accelerating CapEx and lagging revenue recovery, with CapEx serving as a leading indicator [5][11]. - The analysis suggests that as initial CapEx investments materialize, AI revenue is beginning to accelerate, with a focus on the "scissors difference" between AI revenue and depreciation [11][12]. - Key observation points for the future include the transition from infrastructure to application realization, particularly in areas like Google Cloud Platform (GCP), Microsoft Azure, and Amazon AWS [12]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - The outlook for AI remains positive, with expectations of continued revenue acceleration among the top four tech companies, and ongoing improvements in technology and efficiency [6][13]. - The investment community is encouraged to focus on specific companies such as Google, NVIDIA, Broadcom, and LITE as potential beneficiaries of the AI growth trend [6].

Core Insights - The AI community is transitioning from the "Age of Scaling" to a research-focused era, indicating that merely increasing model size and data may no longer yield significant breakthroughs in AI capabilities [1][3][4]. Group 1: Transition from Scaling to Research - Ilya Sutskever's recent comments suggest that while scaling can still lead to improvements, essential elements are missing that are crucial for achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) [4][11]. - The consensus among top researchers is that current AI technologies can still create substantial economic and social impacts, even without further breakthroughs [7][15]. Group 2: Perspectives on AGI Timeline - Various experts have differing opinions on the timeline for achieving AGI, with estimates ranging from 2 to 20 years [8][24]. - The debate continues on what specific breakthroughs are necessary and how quickly they can be achieved [7][8]. Group 3: Emotional Value Function - Ilya emphasizes the importance of an "emotional value function" in human decision-making, which current AI lacks, suggesting that this could be a key area for future research [11][14]. - The need for innovative architectures and ideas is highlighted as essential for progressing towards AGI [14][19]. Group 4: Economic Impact and AI Investment - Major tech companies are projected to spend approximately $370 billion on capital expenditures by 2025, indicating that AI infrastructure investment is a key driver of economic growth in the U.S. [16]. - The current AI investment climate is compared to historical industrial investments, suggesting that while there may be a bubble, it could lead to lasting advancements [17][19]. Group 5: Job Displacement Concerns - AI is estimated to have the potential to replace 11.7% of the U.S. workforce, with white-collar jobs being particularly vulnerable [22][24]. - Contrasting views exist regarding job displacement, with some experts arguing that AI will create new opportunities rather than eliminate jobs [28].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing debates surrounding AI, particularly the "AI bubble theory" and "AI consciousness panic," emphasizing that AI is a valuable technological breakthrough rather than a bubble, and it will serve humanity without self-awareness [1][3]. AI Value and Impact - The skepticism regarding the "AI bubble" is fundamentally a short-term misjudgment of technological value, with AI being a tool that condenses human intelligence into accessible and low-cost solutions, expected to create immeasurable value in the next 5 to 10 years [3]. - AI's essence is not to replace but to liberate human time by handling mundane tasks, allowing individuals to engage in more meaningful activities such as artistic creation and personal development [17][19]. AI in Daily Life and Professional Fields - By 2040, AI is predicted to be integrated into daily life through wearable devices, enhancing environmental awareness and automating tasks like grocery ordering and transportation [10]. - In healthcare, a $20 monthly AI service could provide everyone with access to top-tier medical guidance, addressing long-standing resource distribution issues [12]. - The education sector will shift away from traditional degree systems, with AI tutors customizing learning experiences, transforming classrooms into spaces for practical application and critical thinking [15][25]. Societal Implications and Human Adaptation - The widespread adoption of AI is expected to reduce social disparities by providing equal opportunities for development, showcasing the positive potential of technology [19]. - The competition in the AI era will be between those who master AI tools and those who are replaced by them, highlighting the importance of creativity, emotional intelligence, and value judgment as human advantages [27]. - It is crucial to cultivate self-learning abilities and critical thinking in children to prevent over-reliance on AI, ensuring they can face challenges independently [22].

Market Performance - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Healthcare Index increased by 3.9%, while the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect New Economy Index and Hang Seng Technology Index both rose by 3.8%. The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index grew by 3.3%, and the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index saw a 2.4% increase [1] - As of Thursday, the E Fund Hang Seng Technology ETF (513010) experienced a net inflow of approximately 2 billion yuan over the last 10 trading days, bringing its total size to nearly 25 billion yuan [1] Economic Outlook - According to招商证券, the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and a 70% probability of a rate cut in December are alleviating external negative factors, which may improve market sentiment. The "AI bubble theory" has led to an overselling of the Hong Kong technology sector, suggesting that the growth logic and valuation advantages of the Hang Seng Technology Index are significant, with potential for recovery ahead of A-shares and the Hang Seng Index [1]

Market Overview - On November 28, Hong Kong's three major indices showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index declining by 0.34% and 0.38% respectively, while the Hang Seng Tech Index saw a slight increase of 0.02% [1] Technology Sector - Major technology stocks had mixed performances, with Baidu, Alibaba, and JD.com experiencing slight increases, while Xiaomi, NetEase, and Kuaishou saw minor declines, and Meituan dropped over 1% [2][3] - Semiconductor and chip stocks strengthened, with Hua Hong Semiconductor rising over 2% [5] - The global wafer foundry revenue is expected to reach $199.4 billion by 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 25% [5] Lithium Battery Sector - Lithium battery stocks rose, with Hongqiao Group increasing over 4%, alongside gains from Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, and others [6] Gold Sector - Gold stocks saw expanded gains, with China Gold International rising over 5%, supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [7][8] Robotics Sector - Robotics concept stocks were active, with GAC Group surging over 16%, and other companies like Yujian and Sutech also showing gains [9] Renewable Energy Sector - Solar energy stocks rose, with Shanggao New Energy increasing over 11%, supported by the National Energy Administration's report on renewable energy growth [12] Financial Sector - Insurance stocks declined, with China People's Insurance Group falling over 3%, along with other major insurers [14] Coal Sector - Coal stocks experienced declines, with companies like Yanzhou Coal and China Shenhua seeing drops [16] IPO Activity - Haiwei Co., a capacitor film manufacturer, saw a significant drop of nearly 23% on its first trading day, with a market value falling below 1.8 billion HKD [20] Market Sentiment - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of 2.727 billion HKD, indicating positive sentiment towards Hong Kong stocks [23] - Analysts from China Merchants Securities believe that recent market adjustments are temporary, with expectations of a rebound as interest rate cut expectations become clearer [25]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant decrease in trading volume, with a total turnover of 1.7 trillion yuan, down 290 billion yuan from the previous day [3][5] - The ChiNext index rose by 2% yesterday but fell by 0.44% today, indicating volatility in the market [1] - Major stocks in the AI hardware sector saw substantial trading activity, with four out of the top five stocks in terms of turnover being AI-related [1][3] AI Sector Performance - AI-related ETFs, particularly those focused on computing power, have shown strong performance, with cumulative gains exceeding 8% [3][5] - Despite the gains, there has been a net outflow of funds from these ETFs, indicating a cautious market sentiment [5][12] Global Market Trends - Following a period of record highs in October, various asset classes, including cryptocurrencies and tech stocks, have experienced significant corrections [8][11] - The dollar index has risen from a low of 97.7 on October 3 to 100.35 by November 21, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [9][11] AI Investment Landscape - The AI investment landscape is shifting from hardware acquisition to a focus on energy efficiency and cost-effectiveness, as companies seek to optimize their AI capabilities [18][19] - Major tech firms are heavily investing in AI infrastructure, with significant debt financing observed, indicating a competitive race for AI capabilities [18][19] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market is currently in a state of cautious observation, with concerns about potential bubbles in the AI sector and the sustainability of current valuations [7][19] - Analysts suggest that the ongoing adjustments in the market may lead to a reevaluation of AI's role in productivity and economic growth [19][25]