Group 1 - The U.S. has taken a harsh stance against Japan, despite Japan's past support during the Gulf War and alignment with U.S. strategies in the Indo-Pacific region [1][3] - Japan's purchase of F-35 fighter jets is seen as both a payment for U.S. protection and a show of support for U.S. strategies [1] - The U.S. has previously exploited Japan's economy through the Plaza Accord, which forced the appreciation of the yen and weakened Japan's economic growth [3] Group 2 - Japan has overestimated its influence and the strength of its alliance with the U.S., leading to a lack of compromise in negotiations [5] - The U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on Japan, contrasting with its more lenient approach towards the UK, indicating a targeted strategy against Japan [7] - Japan's economic development has relied on U.S. industrial transfers, and the current U.S. policies are seen as a means to extract further economic benefits from Japan [9]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a holding of 946.51 tons of gold as of July 8, 2025, reflecting a decrease of 1.15 tons from the previous trading day. The decline in gold holdings coincided with a significant drop in spot gold prices, influenced by recent tariff announcements from former President Trump, which have increased risk appetite and pressured gold prices [6]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of July 8, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's total holdings stand at 946.51 tons of gold [6]. - The holdings decreased by 1.15 tons compared to the previous trading day [6]. Group 2: Gold Price Movement - On July 8, spot gold prices fell significantly, reaching a low of $3286.68 per ounce before closing at $3301.56 per ounce, down $34.74 or 1.04% [6]. - The decline in gold prices is attributed to increased risk appetite stemming from tariff news and rising U.S. dollar and bond yields [6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve meeting minutes and key inflation indicators, with expectations of a dovish tone that may lead to interest rate cuts starting in September [7]. - Despite the current bearish sentiment, analysts maintain a long-term bullish outlook on gold due to geopolitical uncertainties and potential buying interest during significant price corrections [7]. - Technical analysis indicates limited upside potential for gold prices, with key support levels at $3270 and $3250, while resistance is noted at $3320 and $3350 [7].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market rebounded after three consecutive days of decline, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 24,148 points, up 260 points or 1.09% [2] - The trading volume increased to 213.3 billion HKD, a rise of 10.1% compared to the previous day [2] - Northbound trading recorded a slight net inflow of 387 million HKD, a decrease of 96.8% from the previous day [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - Among the 12 Hang Seng Composite Industry Indices, 7 sectors rose while 5 fell, with the leading sectors being Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Information Technology, which increased by 1.77% to 1.31% [3] - The lagging sectors included Utilities, Real Estate & Construction, and Consumer Discretionary, with increases ranging from 0.47% to 0.32% [3] Group 3: Company Analysis - Tianlun Gas (1600.HK) - Tianlun Gas has a strong position in the industrial and commercial user segment, particularly in Gansu province, where demand for natural gas is growing rapidly due to industrial transfers from the eastern regions [8][9] - The company’s gas sales volume in Gansu is expected to grow significantly, with the sales volume in Baiyin and Jingyuan projected to account for 3.5% of total sales by 2024 [9] - The company’s financial indicators show a projected retail gas sales growth of 4%-5% for the year, with a slight recovery in gross margin expected [10][11] Group 4: Financial Health - As of the end of 2024, the company’s total liabilities are projected to be 9.648 billion RMB, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 60.6% and an average financing cost of 5.5% [10] - The company has secured a green loan of 125 million USD from the Asian Development Bank at an interest rate of approximately 3.8%, which will help optimize its debt structure [10] - The dividend payout is expected to increase, with a target core payout ratio of 35% for the year, resulting in an attractive dividend yield of around 5% [11]

KVB PRIME发现周二，黄金作为传统的避险资产价格出现下跌，这一走势受到多重因素的综合影响。 一方面，市场对美国与贸易伙伴的谈判抱有乐观情绪，使得风险偏好有所上升；另一方面，美元走强以 及美国国债收益率上升，进一步对黄金价格形成了压力。 截至发稿时，现货黄金日内跌幅达到 1.00%，价格跌破 3300 美元 / 盎司。与此同时，基准 10 年期美国 国债收益率触及了逾两周以来的高点，这一变化降低了无息黄金的投资吸引力；而美元指数则涨至近两 周高点，美元的强势表现也对以美元计价的黄金构成了压制。 亚洲经济强国日本和韩国在周二纷纷表示，将尝试与美国进行谈判，目的是减轻特朗普计划从 8 月初开 始征收的关税所带来的影响。特朗普在周一重启了贸易战，警告 14 个国家将面临更高的关税。不过， 由于关税生效日期被推迟至 8 月 1 日，特朗普实际上为各国打开了一个新的三周窗口期，各国正抓紧利 用这段时间争取更宽松的待遇。 然而，特朗普在周二晚些时候通过 truth social 重申，根据前一天发给多国的信函，以及将在接下来几天 和未来短期内陆续发出的其他信函，关税将于 2025 年 8 月 1 日起正式开始征收。他 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. has threatened tariffs on 14 countries, with rates as high as 40%, violating international trade rules and disregarding the most-favored-nation principle [1][3] - The U.S. is using national security as a justification for these tariffs, which has been criticized by the WTO as inappropriate in non-war situations [1][3] - Developing countries, such as Laos, are particularly vulnerable to these tariff threats, which could significantly increase their operational costs [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. is perceived as engaging in hegemonic behavior, with other countries expressing frustration and calling for a reevaluation of the U.S.'s role in the WTO [3][5] - There is a growing sentiment among nations to potentially exclude the U.S. from the WTO, although achieving this requires a significant consensus [1][3] - The long-term implications of U.S. tariff policies may lead to a decline in the dollar's dominance and the emergence of new currencies for trade settlements [5]

Group 1 - The new US tariff policy is expected to increase pressure on the already fragile economies of Japan and South Korea [1][2] - The US will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from Japan and South Korea starting August 1, with a 25% tariff specifically on Japanese and Korean products [1][3] - Japan and South Korea have expressed regret over the tariffs and are seeking to negotiate with the US to protect their national interests [4][5] Group 2 - The automotive industry in both Japan and South Korea has already been impacted by previous US tariffs, leading to negative export growth in May [2][4] - Japan's exports to the US fell by 11.1% in May, with a significant 24.7% drop in automotive exports, marking the first decline in overall exports in eight months [4][7] - South Korea's exports to the US decreased by 8.1% in May, primarily due to a reduction in automotive exports, contributing to an overall export decline of 1.3% [4][8] Group 3 - The US tariffs are seen as a means to pressure Japan and South Korea into making concessions in future trade negotiations, particularly in sectors where the US has a trade deficit [3][9] - Japan's economy is highly dependent on exports, with estimates suggesting a potential 20-30% decrease in exports to the US if all proposed tariffs are enacted [7][9] - South Korea's economy is also vulnerable, with a potential risk of recession if negotiations with the US fail, as indicated by a recent downgrade in its potential growth rate [8][9] Group 4 - The tariffs are likely to disrupt supply chains in the Asia-Pacific region, increasing costs and investment risks for companies [9] - Strengthening regional cooperation through agreements like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) could help mitigate the negative impacts of US tariffs [9]

Group 1 - The U.S. is set to impose new tariffs on exports from various countries starting August 1, with specific rates to be communicated in letters sent out on July 4 [1] - The deadline for countries to negotiate trade agreements with the U.S. is July 9, after which tariffs will be directly set by the U.S. if no agreement is reached [1] - The U.S. tariff policy is expected to continue beyond Trump's presidency, with businesses advised to prepare for a long-term increase in export costs to the U.S. [3] Group 2 - The EU, Japan, and South Korea have expressed strong opposition to the U.S. tariffs, with significant potential losses for Japanese and European car manufacturers [5] - Japan's automotive industry could face tariffs as high as 25%, while European companies could incur losses exceeding €210 billion [5] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with Japan and other U.S. allies seeking greater strategic autonomy and cooperation among East Asian nations [3][8] Group 3 - Trump's comments on Japan's rice supply issues have sparked significant media attention in Japan, highlighting the sensitivity of agricultural trade in the country [6] - Japan's government has firmly stated it will not compromise its agricultural interests in trade negotiations with the U.S. [6] - The dynamics between the U.S. and its East Asian allies are evolving, with countries like South Korea and Japan increasingly asserting their independence from U.S. influence [8]

Group 1 - U.S. retailers have approximately one month of inventory left, and if tariffs continue, inflation may rise in the coming months [1] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has led to cautious consumer behavior, with limited impact on consumer prices so far [1][4] - Consumer spending in the U.S. has significantly slowed down in the first half of the year, raising concerns about economic growth [3][4] Group 2 - The first quarter GDP revision showed a notable decrease in demand, with consumer spending growth revised down from 1.8% to 0.5% [3] - In May, actual consumer spending declined by 0.3%, leading to weak economic activity in the second quarter [3][4] - The anticipated rebound in second-quarter GDP is expected to be primarily due to a reduction in trade deficits [3] Group 3 - The soft consumer spending reflects the impact of tariff-induced price increases, causing consumers to reduce expenditures [4] - Companies are currently absorbing tariff costs by compressing profit margins rather than passing them onto consumers [5] - Future inflation rates are projected to rise from 2.4% to 3.1% over the next 12 months, which will squeeze real income and consumer purchasing power [5] Group 4 - Companies, especially in the pharmaceutical and industrial sectors, have preemptively stocked up on goods to mitigate price increases [5] - Other sectors, such as toys, clothing, and furniture, are expected to pass on price increases to consumers, but consumer resistance may limit this effect [5]

Group 1 - France is the most assertive country in the EU regarding the trade war initiated by Trump, with Macron firmly opposing any compromises with the US [1] - The French aerospace company Airbus faces export restrictions due to US tariffs, while French agricultural products, particularly wine, are experiencing a significant decline in market share in the US [1] - The wine industry in France is particularly affected, with a sharp decrease in export volumes leading to a sales crisis for many vineyards and a substantial drop in income for farmers and related workers [1] Group 2 - Macron's strong stance against the US tariffs has provided a clear direction for the EU, potentially uniting member states to defend EU interests and avoid hasty compromises [3] - However, this hardline approach has intensified divisions within the EU, as countries like Germany, which have strong economic ties to the US, may be more inclined to make concessions [3] - Despite these divisions, there remains a significant opposition within the EU against the US tariffs, which is viewed positively [3] Group 3 - Recently, France's Finance Minister emphasized the need to reassess trade rules and strengthen barriers specifically against China, indicating a potential shift in strategy [5] - This shift could lead to France pressuring China to gain concessions from the US, making a trade agreement more likely if France meets certain US demands [5] - France's actions may create significant geopolitical risks in its relationship with China, as it seeks to assert its value in US-EU relations [7] Group 4 - French companies, particularly in the wine, cosmetics, and luxury goods sectors, are concerned about the potential impact of increased tariffs on exports to China, which could severely affect revenues [9] - The implementation of such policies may disrupt the cooperative atmosphere between China and the EU, affecting the overall direction of EU-China relations and eroding mutual trust [9] - If the French government chooses to escalate threats against China to maintain domestic support, it must consider the potential costs of losing benefits due to possible Chinese retaliatory measures [9]

黄金方面： 美国总统隔夜签署行政令将对等关税暂缓期延长至8月1日，这将在一定程度上化解了此前90日暂缓期到期矛盾激化的风险，美 元指数表现比较坚挺，短期施压金价。 不过特朗普向14国发出关税信函，8月1日起对日韩进口商品征收25%的关税，对马来西亚等国家征收25%至40%的关税。近期美 国在关税方面频频出手，潜在的风险依旧将限制金价跌幅。 美联储主席热门候选人沃什表示，美联储应该降息至更低的水平。美联储的研究报告警示，美国的经济前景不明，极有可能再 度呈现零利率的状况。叠加此前美联储利率决议看好美联储下半年维持两次降息的预期，黄金价格修正之后仍然存在走高的机 会。 技术面：日线上，上一个交易日行情下行且收小阴线，短期偏弱。指标上看，重点关注行情反弹测试20日均线情况。若有效上 破，则金价存在进一步走高的机会，否则金价存再度下行风险。日内关注上方3350美元一线压力情况。 调查数据显示，沙特引领中东出口激增，以求夺回市场份额。欧佩克的产量达到了近4个月以来的最高水平，至2800万桶/日。 此前欧佩克+决定在8月份增产54.8万桶/日。据消息人士透露，欧佩克+将批准9月份再次大幅增产55万桶/日。欧佩克的产量政策 ...