1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro**: Overseas, the US dollar index rose and then fell, the 10Y US Treasury yield declined, US stocks opened lower and closed higher, gold and oil prices closed up, and copper prices weakened. Domestically, A - shares fell on high - volume trading, and the stock market's risk may be approaching its peak. The bond market is expected to start to recover [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The independence of the Fed is under threat, increasing the market's risk appetite and boosting precious metal prices. Short - term precious metal prices are expected to be volatile and strong [3]. - **Copper**: LME copper inventories increased, and copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term due to factors such as policy independence concerns, economic situation, and supply - demand fundamentals [4][5][6]. - **Aluminum**: The market is waiting for US economic data and concerned about the Fed's independence. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term as downstream replenishment意愿 decreases [7]. - **Alumina**: Supply pressure is increasing, and alumina prices are expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - **Zinc**: Market risk aversion has increased, and zinc prices have moved down. Supply pressure will be alleviated, but consumption has not improved significantly, and zinc prices are expected to have limited downward adjustment space [9]. - **Lead**: Supply pressure is expected to decrease, but consumption in the peak season has not materialized, so the upward space for lead prices is limited [10][11]. - **Tin**: The low inventory of LME tin and slow supply recovery support prices, but limited capital enthusiasm restricts the upward height of tin prices [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are both long and short factors, and lithium prices are expected to fluctuate [13]. - **Steel (Screw and Coil)**: Demand is in the off - season, and supply is reduced. Steel prices are expected to be volatile and weak [14]. - **Iron Ore**: Demand is decreasing due to steel mill maintenance, and supply is stable. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean harvest is expected to be good, and there are positive expectations for the China - US agricultural product agreement. Short - term soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [16][17]. - **Palm Oil**: There is limited driving force in the market, and palm oil prices are expected to be volatile and adjust [18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Trading Data - **Copper**: SHFE copper closed at 79190 yuan/ton with no change; LME copper closed at 9774 dollars/ton, down 0.74% [19]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum closed at 20810 yuan/ton, up 0.46%; LME aluminum closed at 2604 dollars/ton, down 1.31% [19]. - **Alumina**: SHFE alumina closed at 3046 yuan/ton, down 2.65% [8]. - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc closed at 22310 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; LME zinc closed at 2764 dollars/ton, down 1.53% [19]. - **Lead**: SHFE lead closed at 16890 yuan/ton, down 0.24%; LME lead closed at 1986 dollars/ton, down 0.08% [19]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin closed at 271790 yuan/ton, up 0.88%; LME tin closed at 34510 dollars/ton, up 1.11% [19]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold futures rose 0.55% to 3451.80 dollars/ounce; COMEX silver futures rose 0.22% to 38.69 dollars/ounce [3]. 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - **Copper**: On August 27, SHFE copper was unchanged at 79190 yuan/ton, LME copper fell 73 dollars to 9773.5 dollars/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 1100 tons to 156100 tons [21]. - **Nickel**: SHFE nickel rose 1390 yuan to 121760 yuan/ton, LME nickel fell 90 dollars to 15190 dollars/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 72 tons to 209220 tons [21]. - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc rose 40 yuan to 22310 yuan/ton, LME zinc fell 43 dollars to 2764 dollars/ton. LME zinc inventory decreased by 5500 tons to 60025 tons [23]. - **Lead**: SHFE lead fell 40 yuan to 16890 yuan/ton, LME lead fell 1.5 dollars to 1985.5 dollars/ton. LME lead inventory decreased by 4075 tons to 267475 tons [23]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum rose 90 yuan to 20760 yuan/ton, LME aluminum fell 34.5 dollars to 2604 dollars/ton. LME aluminum inventory increased by 3175 tons to 481250 tons [23]. - **Alumina**: SHFE alumina fell 23 yuan to 3046 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price of alumina fell 9 yuan to 3237 yuan/ton [23]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin rose 2030 yuan to 271790 yuan/ton, LME tin rose 380 dollars to 34510 dollars/ton. LME tin inventory increased by 145 tons to 1925 tons [23]. - **Precious Metals**: There was little change in the prices of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver on August 27 compared with August 26 [23].

Variety Views - On August 27, A-share's three major indexes rose and then fell. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 1.76% to 3,800.35, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.43% to 12,295.07, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.69% to 2,723.20. The trading volume of the two markets exceeded 3 trillion for the third time, reaching 3.1656 trillion, a significant increase of 486.5 billion from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index adjusted on August 27, closing at 4,386.13, a decrease of 66.46 [1]. - On August 27, the weighted coke index remained weak, closing at 1,669.4, a decline of 45.9 [1]. - On August 27, the weighted coking coal index fluctuated weakly, closing at 1,149.0 yuan, a decrease of 45.8 [2]. - Affected by Conab's reduction of Brazil's sugar production forecast, ICE sugar futures rose slightly on Tuesday. However, due to weak consumption and lower spot prices, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract fell slightly on Wednesday and continued to decline slightly at night [3]. - Affected by falling crude oil prices and a sharp stock market decline, Shanghai rubber futures fell on Wednesday. However, heavy rain in rubber - producing areas due to a typhoon limited the decline. At night, it fluctuated and closed slightly lower [4]. - On August 27, CBOT soybean futures fluctuated. With favorable growing conditions in the US, the probability of weather speculation this year has decreased significantly, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. In the domestic market, the M2601 contract closed at 3,045 yuan/ton on August 27, down 1.17%. High soybean crushing volume, increased inventory, and weakening cost support led to a weakening trend in soybean meal prices [5][6]. - On August 27, the LH2511 live - hog contract closed at 13,745 yuan/ton, down 0.83%. At the supply end, some pig farms have completed their monthly sales plans, but the supply of suitable - weight pigs is still sufficient. At the demand end, with the approaching of the school season and the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, consumption is expected to improve, but the actual recovery is restricted by factors such as consumer willingness and the economic environment [6]. - On August 27, palm oil futures maintained a high - level and narrow - range oscillation. The P2601 contract closed at 9,500. According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 were 933,437 tons, a 36.41% increase from the same period last month [7]. - Trump's dismissal of Fed governor Cook raised concerns about the Fed's independence, strengthening the US dollar and suppressing copper demand. However, the tight supply of copper concentrates and strong demand in the new energy sector supported Shanghai copper prices [7]. - On Wednesday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14,095 yuan/ton. On August 28, the basis price at Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses was at least 900 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 118 lots [7]. - On August 27, the log 2511 contract opened at 821.5, with a low of 813.5, a high of 825.5, and closed at 814.5, with an increase of 1,473 lots in positions. The 60 - day moving average provided support at 813 and resistance at 827. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. Higher overseas prices drove up domestic futures prices. There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and spot trading is weak [8]. - On August 27, the rb2510 steel rebar contract closed at 3,111 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 hot - rolled coil contract closed at 3,349 yuan/ton. There is still pressure in the spot market, and strong raw material prices provide cost support. The steel market lacks upward momentum in the short term and is likely to continue narrow - range oscillation [8]. - On August 27, the ao2601 alumina contract closed at 3,046 yuan/ton. High inventories of upstream manufacturers led to an influx of supply, highlighting a loose supply - demand situation. Weak downstream demand forced prices to return to a lower level [9][10]. - On August 27, the al2510 Shanghai aluminum contract closed at 20,810 yuan/ton. Some enterprises are stocking up for the peak season, but with the rebound of aluminum prices, terminal shipments and spot purchases have decreased. In the traditional off - season, demand is weak, and aluminum ingots are accumulating, suppressing spot premiums [10]. Impact Factors Coke and Coking Coal - In the coke market, port spot prices rose, with Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at 1,490 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. Many coke enterprises proposed an eighth price increase, but steel mills have not responded. Although profits have improved and production enthusiasm is high, environmental protection restrictions due to the parade have led to a decline in production. At the demand end, steel mills' production restrictions are concentrated at the end of the month, and the demand for coke is stable, but raw material arrivals are insufficient in some areas [3]. - In the coking coal market, the price of main coking coal in Luliang decreased by 25 yuan to 335 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market is strong, with some prices rising. Supply is unstable, auctions show mixed results, and mines are reluctant to lower prices due to low inventories and expected coke price increases [3]. Sugar - Conab reduced Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production forecast by 3.1% to 44.5 million tons compared with the April forecast. However, production is still expected to increase by 0.8% compared with the previous year [4]. Rubber - Thailand's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first 7 months were 2.572 million tons, a 9.3% year - on - year increase [4]. Soybean Meal - The US soybean growing conditions are good, and the probability of weather - related speculation has decreased, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. In the domestic market, high soybean crushing volume has led to an increase in soybean meal inventory, and weakening cost support has reduced mills' motivation to support prices [6]. Aluminum - Some domestic aluminum enterprises are stocking up for the peak season, and the downstream operating rate has increased slightly. However, with the rebound of aluminum prices, terminal shipments and spot purchases have decreased. In the traditional off - season, demand is weak, and aluminum ingots are accumulating, suppressing spot premiums [10].

Group 1 - The core recommendation from Citigroup's core strategy team is for investors to add small positions to their existing holdings, specifically to short U.S. long-term Treasuries and the U.S. dollar exchange rate [1][3] - The strategy team, led by Adam Pictet and Dirk Weller, anticipates that the yield on 30-year Treasury futures will lag behind that of 5-year contracts, driven by concerns over long-term inflation and potential loss of Federal Reserve independence [3] - Following Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, the spread between 30-year and 5-year Treasuries widened to its highest level since 2001, indicating increased market concerns [3] Group 2 - Despite the risks to the Federal Reserve's independence, the U.S. dollar has not significantly weakened, attributed to market concerns over France's fiscal deficit and debt sustainability, which temporarily suppresses capital flow into the Eurozone [4] - The Eurozone's monetary policy framework remains stable, suggesting that once the short-term support for the dollar dissipates, there is significant potential for the Euro to appreciate against the dollar [4]

来源：市场资讯 2025年8月28日，早盘开盘，国内期货主力合约跌多涨少，玉米涨超1%；跌幅方面，碳酸锂跌超2%， 纯碱、玻璃、对二甲苯、PVC、原油、苯乙烯跌超1%。 | 00 | 言约名称 | 最新 | 现手 | 买价 | 英价 | 瑞电器制 | 蛋蛋 | 英国 | 成交量 | · | 持仓量 | 日期仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 碳酸锂2511 M | 76420 | 173 | 76400 | 76420 | -4.47% | 37 | 28 | 105123 -3580 | | 365614 | 14292 | | | 2 集运欧线2510 M | 1295.2 | 1 | 1294.3 | 1295.2 | -2.54% | 38 | 2 | | 4877 -33.8 | 53437 | -288 | | 3 | 多品硅2511 M | 48505 | 73 | 48495 | 48510 | -2.43% | 10 | ಕ | 23780 -121 ...

英伟达最新财报公布。 当地时间8月27日，美股三大指数收高，标普500指数创盘中与收盘历史新高。截至当天收盘，道指涨147.16点，涨幅为0.32%，报45565.23点；纳指涨 45.87点，涨幅为0.21%，报21590.14点；标普500指数涨15.46点，涨幅为0.24%，报6481.40点。 热门中概股多数下跌 英伟达营收再创新高 盘后大跌 作为全球市值最高的公司，英伟达（Nvidia）2026财年第二季度财报显示，公司该季度营收持续增长，总营收达467亿美元，较去年同期增长56%。这一 增长主要由人工智能（AI）主导的数据中心业务推动，该业务营收同比增幅同样达到56%，至411亿美元。不过，据CNBC消息称，该营收数据不及Street Account预测的413.4亿美元。 净利润方面，公司该季度实现净利润264.22亿美元，同比增加59%；上年同期为165.99亿美元，市场预期为234.65亿美元。 英伟达表示，预计第三财季营收将达到540亿美元，上下浮动不超过 2%，此外，公司董事会已批准新增600亿美元的股票回购计划。 在财报发布后，英伟达股价盘后一度跌超5%，目前跌幅收窄至3%左右。 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is approaching a potential stagflation scenario, characterized by rising inflation and slowing economic growth, largely due to recent tensions between President Trump and the Federal Reserve [1]. Economic Indicators - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields have risen, indicating that investors are preparing for future inflation [1][3]. - The bond market has issued cautious signals, with the 30-year Treasury yield surging [2]. Federal Reserve Dynamics - The potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook could undermine the Fed's independence and credibility in controlling inflation [1][4]. - If President Trump replaces more regional Fed chairs with dovish policymakers, it may increase pressure for looser monetary policy, raising concerns about inflation [4]. Policy Implications - Stagflation is considered more challenging to address than traditional recessions, as rising inflation limits the Fed's ability to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy [1]. - The Fed's decision to lower rates in September, despite rising inflation expectations, is viewed as a significant error that could lead to higher long-term Treasury yields [3][4]. Trade and Tariff Effects - Ongoing warnings about stagflation risks have been prevalent, particularly in light of Trump's tariff policies, which are expected to raise consumer prices and hinder global trade, potentially damaging economic growth [4].

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint highlights the unprecedented removal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by Trump, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential for more "Trump-aligned" appointees, which could lead to increased expectations for interest rate cuts in the future [1] - Following the removal announcement, market reactions included rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices, while the U.S. dollar index declined, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards risk assets [1] Fixed Income - The report indicates a cautious approach in the convertible bond market, suggesting a reduction in exposure to high-priced targets while increasing allocations to ETFs to balance risks [2][3] - The 10-year government bond yield increased from 1.745% to 1.785%, reflecting market adjustments to macroeconomic conditions [2] Industry Insights - New Lai Ying Material (300260) reported improved Q2 performance, benefiting from growth in the semiconductor and liquid cooling sectors, with a focus on domestic substitution and an optimized customer structure [5][6] - Li Yuan Heng (688499) achieved profitability with a robust order backlog in solid-state battery equipment, indicating a strong operational cash flow and successful delivery to major clients [7] - Jin Zai Food (003000) is experiencing a Q2 adjustment period, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027, reflecting a mismatch between internal expansion strategies and external market conditions [8][9] - Anpei Long (301413) reported steady growth in its temperature and pressure sensor business while investing in humanoid robotics, adjusting profit forecasts for 2025-2026 [10] - Xinde New Materials (301349) is seeing significant growth in fast-charging products, with profit forecasts adjusted upwards due to improved margins [11] - The report on China National Railway (601766) indicates strong growth in H1 2025, driven by recovery in railway fixed asset investments [18] - The report on China Duty Free Group (601888) highlights a narrowing revenue decline in Q2 2025, with a focus on expanding city store operations to boost sales [31] - Yun Aluminum (000807) reported a 17.98% increase in revenue for H1 2025, with a focus on maintaining high profit margins amid fluctuating aluminum prices [32][33]

Core Viewpoint - Gold futures experienced a slight increase, reversing earlier losses, driven by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following President Trump's attempt to dismiss a Fed governor [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold futures for August delivery rose by 0.5%, closing at $3,404.60 per ounce, marking the highest closing price since August 8 [2] - Silver futures for August delivery increased by 0.3%, closing at $38.689 per ounce [2] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Two main factors driving the recent rise in gold prices include signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding a potential rate cut in September and Trump's actions raising concerns about the Fed's independence [1] - Ongoing geopolitical risks, such as increased attacks on Russian energy infrastructure by Ukraine, and unresolved trade tensions are expected to maintain a solid risk premium in gold prices [1] Group 3: Investment Products - Related exchange-traded funds (ETFs) include SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US), VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX.US), VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), iShares Silver ETF (SLV), and GlobalX Silver Miners ETF (SIVR) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The conflict between President Trump and the Federal Reserve has significantly escalated following Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, marking a historic event as it is the first time in over a century that a president has removed a Fed governor [4]. Group 1: Dismissal of Lisa Cook - President Trump dismissed Lisa Cook citing allegations of mortgage fraud, and Cook's attorney announced plans to sue Trump for this action [4][6]. - Trump indicated he has a suitable replacement for Cook and is considering candidates such as Stephen Moore and David Malpass to fill the vacancy [5][8]. - The Federal Reserve's spokesperson emphasized that the law requires a valid reason for the dismissal of a governor, highlighting the importance of long-term terms and protections for Fed officials [6][10]. Group 2: Implications for the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve Board consists of seven members, and currently, only two were appointed by Trump, with the remaining four appointed by former President Biden [7]. - Trump's dissatisfaction with the Fed's reluctance to lower interest rates has led him to target Cook, aiming to create more vacancies and secure a majority of appointments for his administration [7][8]. - Experts warn that if Trump's dismissal of Cook is upheld, it could set a precedent for presidential influence over the Fed, potentially undermining its independence and leading to greater economic uncertainty in the future [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is intensifying scrutiny on Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook following allegations of mortgage fraud, with Treasury Secretary Yellen calling for an internal review of the Fed [1][2][3] Group 1: Allegations and Responses - Treasury Secretary Yellen questioned Cook's lack of denial regarding the fraud allegations, suggesting that if proven true, Cook should face prosecution [2] - The allegations stem from claims that Cook misrepresented properties in mortgage applications, potentially to secure better loan terms [8][9] - Cook's legal team has stated that Trump lacks the authority to dismiss her and plans to challenge the termination in court, emphasizing the importance of the Fed's independence [10][11] Group 2: Political Implications - If Trump successfully replaces Cook, he would gain a majority on the seven-member Federal Reserve Board, which could influence monetary policy decisions [3][5] - Trump's Chief Economic Advisor has publicly suggested that Cook should resign during the legal proceedings, further escalating political tensions [6][7] - Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren defended Cook, arguing that the allegations do not justify her dismissal from the Fed [7] Group 3: Legal and Institutional Context - The legal framework governing the dismissal of Fed governors requires "just cause," typically interpreted as misconduct or malfeasance [9] - The outcome of Cook's potential lawsuit could have significant implications for the independence of the Federal Reserve and the limits of presidential power [10]