2）影响因素分析: 一方面，特朗普发表关于伊朗局势的较为激进言论、令市场对美伊局势或进一步升级的担忧加剂，超险需求升温推开贵金属价格，另一方面, 同帮班，美联储主席鲍威尔遭刑事调查加剧市场对美联储独立性的担忧，同时在政治施压下市场或提前博弈降息加码预期，也对责金属价格构成利好。其次，从基本面上来 取提微微青，白银现货维持升水，现货偏紧格局不改、加上光伏出口退税政策短期或改善自银需求预期，都进一步助力报价弹性释放。综上、展望后市，短期在宏观和基本 赌《个》面支撑的双重利好下，预计贵金属价格科维持筛强运行，但在上期所、芝商所均领赛出台风控指施以利制投机亲度和贵金属市场获利了结压力仍较大等背景下、其 ■39. 以 价格波动幅度或仍会较为剧烈、建议控制仓位。后续，需继续密切关注伊朗局势进展、美联储主席鲍威尔调查和新任主席人选、特朗普夫税期决、美国2030直结果 供参考) 、美国CPI 等一系列事件。长期来看，贵金属的上涨逻辑并未逆转，策略上仍以逢低做多或卖浅虚看跌期权为主。 3）中长期现点：中长期来看，美联储仍处于宽松周期、大国博弈加剧和进全球化趋势将令全球地缘不确定性持续、美国巨额债务承美联储独立性削弱将进一步增 ...

新华社纽约1月12日电 美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔11日晚表示，美国联邦检察官已于9日向美联储 送达传票，威胁就他2025年6月在参议院银行委员会作证一事提起刑事诉讼，当时的证词涉及美联储办 公楼翻新项目。 针对联邦检察官正在展开的刑事调查，鲍威尔明确表示，不接受政治压力或恐吓，将继续履职。分析人 士指出，在白宫与美联储围绕货币政策龃龉不断的背景下，这一调查恐进一步侵蚀美联储的独立性，增 加货币政策走向的不确定性。 因不满美联储未能积极降息，美国总统特朗普多次要求鲍威尔辞职。鲍威尔将于2026年5月结束美联储 主席任期，但他的美联储理事任期要到2028年才结束。 有分析指出，若检方正式起诉，势必会给鲍威尔的履职带来不确定性。一旦美联储主席空缺，即便鲍威 尔继续担任美联储理事，美联储决策也可能出现混乱和真空。 美联储办公楼翻 新工作进行中 图IC ...

最近，美国众议院通过了一项法案，以230票赞成、196票反对的结果，将奥巴马医改中的补贴政策再延长三年。从表面上看，这只是一次普通的政策表决， 但真正了解背后意义的人都清楚，这无疑是对特朗普的一次重击。毕竟，奥巴马医改是民主党的核心政治遗产，特朗普自从竞选之初到上任以来，一直在寻 求废除它。然而，现在不仅没有废除，反而被国会通过立法方式进一步加固。这对于特朗普来说，显然是一个不小的打击。 让特朗普更加头疼的是票数的 细节。在这230张赞成票中，有17票竟然来自共和党内部的议员，这意味着17名共和党议员选择反水，站到了民主党一边。考虑到中期选举即将来临，共和 党在这次投票中的大规模倒戈，透露出一个不容忽视的信号：党内的裂痕不仅存在，而且正在公开化，甚至逐渐扩大。特朗普的权威在党内受到了挑战，这 样的情况对于即将到来的中期选举来说，无疑是个不小的隐患。如果党内的分歧持续加剧，共和党可能会在选举中面临不小的挑战。那么，特朗普该如何应 对这一局面呢？答案似乎很简单：他需要清除内部分裂，把所有不听从自己指令的官员换掉，而美联储主席鲍威尔，便成了他清除内患的头号目标。 目 前，鲍威尔正面临着一项刑事调查，调查的核心问题是 ...

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures are experiencing a strong oscillation, with the main contract reaching a peak of 8866.00 yuan and currently trading at 8772.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.32% increase [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Zhengxin Futures indicates that palm oil continues its oscillating strong trend, supported by a decrease in production and an increase in exports as reported in the MPOB December report, which noted a month-end inventory of 3.05 million tons [2]. - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures anticipates a short-term strengthening of palm oil prices, citing macroeconomic factors such as the investigation into the Federal Reserve Chairman and geopolitical tensions in Iran, which have contributed to rising oil prices [3]. - Hualian Futures expects domestic oilseeds to maintain a strong oscillating trend, with signs of improvement in palm oil exports in January and potential favorable developments regarding Canadian canola tariffs [3]. Group 2: Inventory and Production Insights - The MPOB report indicates that Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory for December was 3.05 million tons, slightly above expectations, but the market has absorbed this bearish news [3]. - High-frequency data shows a reduction in Malaysian palm oil production and an increase in demand in early January, which is expected to improve supply-demand dynamics and support price recovery [3].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing criminal investigation against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by the U.S. Department of Justice has raised significant concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and has sparked fears of a potential "sell-off" of U.S. assets in the market [1][10]. Group 1: Investigation Background - The investigation appears to center around the renovation project of the Federal Reserve's office building, but it is fundamentally rooted in the long-standing monetary policy disagreements between President Trump and Powell [3]. - On January 9, 2026, the DOJ issued a subpoena to the Federal Reserve, threatening criminal charges against Powell related to his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee regarding the renovation project, which saw its budget increase from approximately $1.9 billion to nearly $2.5 billion [3]. - Powell has publicly stated that the criminal investigation is a "pretext" to undermine the Federal Reserve's independence in setting interest rates, asserting that the government’s threats are due to the Fed's decisions based on public interest rather than presidential wishes [3]. Group 2: Support for Powell - In response to unprecedented pressure, Powell received collective support from former officials in the U.S. financial sector, including three former Federal Reserve Chairs and four bipartisan former Treasury Secretaries, who condemned the DOJ's actions as an unprecedented attempt to undermine central bank independence [4]. - Janet Yellen expressed that the situation creates a "chilling effect" and is alarming for Powell's potential successors, noting her surprise at the market's muted reaction [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Stance - Federal Reserve officials, including John Williams, have chosen to respond firmly to political pressures, emphasizing the need to maintain the independence of monetary policy [7][9]. - Williams stated that current monetary policy is neutral concerning employment and inflation targets, indicating no need for interest rate cuts in the short term, while also highlighting the importance of restoring inflation to the 2% target [9]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Analysts suggest that if the independence of the Federal Reserve is compromised, it could lead to a threefold crisis: decreased investor confidence in U.S. dollar assets, increased long-term borrowing costs, and accelerated global de-dollarization [10]. - Following the announcement of the criminal investigation, the Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.2%, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose, and gold prices reached a historic high [10]. - JPMorgan's trading team noted that concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence were a major driver of market activity, suggesting that this theme could dominate market narratives moving forward [11].

上交易日周一(1月12日)：国际黄金受到周末地缘局势加剧，以及特朗普政府对美联储主席鲍威尔展开 刑事调查的不确定性加深，引发了市场对美联储独立性和美元长期前景的担忧。推动金价高开高走，并 刷新历史高点突破4600美元关口，虽最终由于部分获利了结和芝商所继续调整保证金的影响，而有所回 撤。但其收线上，仍使得多头动力进一步加强，后市则有望继续上行攀升。操作依然保持逢低做多不 变。 展望今日周二(1月13日)：国际黄金开盘延续隔夜尾盘回撤动力，早盘有所走弱，加上美元指数延续昨 日的触底回升，早盘有所偏强，也限制了金价多头。但金价也仍具进一步上涨动力。 同时，日内还将受到美国12月未季调核心CPI年率的预期走高，而多头反弹受限，不过CPI的升高也会 带动金价的商品属性，使其反弹，故此，如晚间公布的CPI整体下降，将会提升降息前景，金价直接再 度走强，如果高于前值或者是预期，金价则是先跌后涨，整体上，无论什么结果，操作都是逢低做多为 主。 具体走势上，金价自亚市高开至4516.02美元/盎司，先行录得日内低点4512.88美元，之后反弹攀升，虽 至8点半时段触及4600美元关口，有所遇阻回撤近40美金，但整体依然保持震 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔正面临来自白宫的刑事调查威胁，在这场旨在捍卫央行独立性的斗争中，他意外收获 了一支强大的盟军——"Meme股"散户大军。这一群体将这位72岁的央行掌舵人奉为美股历史性牛市的 守护者，不仅在社交媒体上对其顶礼膜拜，更将其视为敢于对抗行政压力的"美国英雄"。 事件的导火索在于鲍威尔周日发表的一份强硬声明，指责特朗普政府利用刑事起诉的威胁施压美联储进 一步降息。这种罕见的公开对抗迅速点燃了散户投资者的热情，他们不仅没有因潜在的动荡感到恐慌， 反而通过键盘表达了对鲍威尔的坚定支持，许多人认为他是在保护使得美股屡创新高的经济体系。 1月12日，据华尔街日报、彭博社等媒体报道，在以散户大本营著称的Reddit论坛WallStreetBets版块， 力挺鲍威尔的帖子迅速成为热门，数以千计的"点赞"涌向这位决策者。对于这些伴随美股历史高位成长 的年轻投资者而言，鲍威尔不仅是"拥有气场"的技术官僚，更是他们眼中"史上最好的主席"，其面对压 力的坚定立场被视为对市场信心的有力背书。 "鲍威尔爸爸"的死忠粉 当鲍威尔公开捍卫美联储独立性时，曾因2021年GameStop狂热而一战成名的WallStreetBets论 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices stabilized around $4,585 per ounce after a significant increase of 2% in the previous trading day, driven by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following threats from the Trump administration to pursue criminal charges against Chairman Jerome Powell [1][3] - The recent attacks on the Federal Reserve have reignited a trend of selling off dollar assets, leading to a decline in the dollar's exchange rate and a sell-off in U.S. Treasury securities [1][3] - Factors such as increased geopolitical risks, trade tensions, and central banks accumulating gold have contributed to gold prices reaching historical highs last year, with expectations for continued upward momentum through 2026 [1][3] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have stabilized after recovering from a 2% drop, with significant volatility driven by speculative inflows, as indicated by the soaring implied volatility of the largest silver ETF [4] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange is set to adjust margin requirements for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures, which will take effect after Tuesday's close, reflecting the increased volatility in precious metals [5] - Citigroup forecasts that gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce and silver could surpass $100 per ounce within the next three months, with expectations of a continued bull market in precious metals [5]

Group 1 - The current trading price of silver is at 19.078 yuan per gram, down 0.20%, with a high of 19.327 yuan and a low of 18.702 yuan, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in the market [1] - Concerns are rising among investors regarding the Federal Reserve's ability to manage interest rates without political interference, as highlighted by UBS's chief economist Paul Donovan [1] - Donovan suggests that the investigation into the current Fed Chair Powell may inadvertently strengthen the central bank's independence, with indications that the Senate may delay the confirmation of a new Fed Chair [1] Group 2 - Former Fed Chair Yellen expressed that the investigation into Powell undermines the Fed's independence and is surprised that the market is not more concerned about this "extremely chilling" situation [2] - Yellen firmly believes that Powell's likelihood of committing perjury is zero and suggests that the investigation is politically motivated to remove him from his position [2] - Technical analysis of silver prices indicates a potential decrease, with support levels identified between 17.50-18.50 and resistance levels between 19.50-20.00 [2]

Group 1 - The US dollar index has significantly declined, ending its upward trend since the beginning of the year, primarily driven by uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve and upcoming Supreme Court policy decisions [1] - The US Department of Justice has accused Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell of construction cost issues, escalating the controversy and raising concerns about the Fed's independence [1] - The market is focused on the upcoming US CPI data for December, with expectations of a year-on-year growth rate of 2.7% and core CPI rising from 2.6% to 2.7% [4] Group 2 - Non-US currencies have generally rebounded against the weakening dollar, with the euro ending a four-day decline, while the Japanese yen has fallen to a one-year low amid political developments [2] - Precious metals have shown active performance, with gold reaching $4600 before retreating, and silver rising by 6.6% to surpass $85 [2] - Global stock markets have continued their strong performance, with major US and European indices reaching historical highs, particularly in defensive sectors [2] Group 3 - The euro has faced resistance at 1.1695, and if the US CPI data is lower than expected, it may support a short-term rebound for the euro [5] - The Nikkei 225 index has shown signs of overbought correction after reaching historical highs, with key support levels identified [6]