Core Insights - The article emphasizes the increasing demand for low-volatility, absolute return products in the current low-interest, high-volatility environment, with public FOFs (Fund of Funds) emerging as a key tool to meet this demand [1] - Liu Xin, the assistant general manager and head of asset allocation at Minsheng Jianyin Fund, is highlighted for his pragmatic investment philosophy that focuses on asset allocation rather than short-term market predictions [2][4] Investment Philosophy - Liu Xin's investment philosophy is characterized by "market reverence" and "weakness thinking," acknowledging the complexity of markets and the limitations of individual perception [2][3] - The focus is on addressing solvable investment issues, such as long-term asset patterns and risk correlation analysis, rather than attempting to predict short-term market movements [3] Asset Allocation Strategy - The essence of asset allocation is to "acknowledge uncertainty," aiming for sustainable investment returns through diversified portfolios that hedge against uncontrollable risks [4] - Liu Xin advocates for a "localized all-weather" FOF strategy that emphasizes multi-asset diversification rather than merely selecting top-performing funds [5][6] Performance Metrics - Under Liu Xin's leadership, the Minsheng Jianyin Kangning Stable Pension Target One-Year FOF has achieved a net value growth rate of nearly 8% since 2025, surpassing its performance benchmark by 3.51% with a maximum drawdown of -1.95%, indicating strong stability [1] Market Outlook - Liu Xin holds a relatively optimistic view on the A-share market, citing its reasonable valuation and sustainable upward trend, making it a core equity asset for strategic allocation over the next two to three years [9] - The A-share market is currently at a medium valuation level, providing a safety margin compared to other global markets [9] Bond Market Perspective - Bonds are viewed as a "stabilizer" in the portfolio, with a focus on interest rate bonds for risk hedging rather than yield generation, while credit bonds are selected through experienced active fund management [10] - The current bond market is characterized by low overall interest rates, but bonds still offer "insurance value" against economic downturns [10] New Fund Launch - A new fund, Minsheng Jianyin Multi-Dimensional Stable Allocation 3-Month Holding Period Mixed FOF, is set to be launched, which will implement the "localized all-weather" strategy and dynamically optimize asset allocation [11]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around global asset allocation, focusing on the stock and gold markets, particularly in the context of China and the United States. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Global Market Trends**: The global stock and gold markets are benefiting from a technological revolution, with growth stocks outperforming value stocks. Chinese stocks are performing better than U.S. stocks. Recommendations include overweighting gold and Chinese tech stocks while underweighting commodities and U.S. dollar assets, a strategy that has been validated by market prices [1][2][28]. 2. **Current Market Conditions**: U.S., A-share, and Hong Kong stocks are in a bull market, with A-share and Hong Kong stocks nearing historical medians. The U.S. stock market and gold have had prolonged bull markets but still have room for growth. The key to determining the peak of Chinese stocks lies in economic policies, liquidity, and earnings valuations [1][6][18]. 3. **Investment Concerns for 2026**: Two main concerns for 2026 are whether the bull markets in stocks and gold can continue and what measures to take if market conditions change. Recent pullbacks in Chinese, U.S. stocks, and gold indicate that the market is contemplating potential changes in future trends [3][4]. 4. **Valuation Analysis**: Current valuations show that gold, U.S. stocks, and Chinese bonds are relatively high, while U.S. bonds and commodities are undervalued. A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are at moderate valuations. The geopolitical events can impact markets, typically negatively affecting stocks while boosting gold and commodities [4][22][23]. 5. **Asset Class Switching Patterns**: Historical data indicates that U.S. stocks have a longer bull market duration (84% of the time) compared to the more volatile Chinese stocks. The switching patterns of different asset classes require careful monitoring of market peaks [5][6]. 6. **Top Prediction Challenges**: Predicting market tops is complicated by various bullish narratives and the difficulty of timely decision-making even when correct signals are received. The need for a multi-dimensional approach to analyze market signals is emphasized [10][11][12]. 7. **Impact of U.S. Federal Reserve Policies**: The Fed's monetary policy is crucial for asset prices. Current loose policies support asset prices, but potential tightening could pressure both stocks and gold. The Fed's personnel changes may lead to a more dovish stance in the long term [20][21]. 8. **China's Economic Policy Influence**: China's incremental policies must meet expectations to avoid negative impacts on macro liquidity. The government is committed to stabilizing growth, which is expected to support the economy and maintain stable M1 and M2 growth rates [21][24]. 9. **Geopolitical Events**: Recent geopolitical events, such as trade wars, have significantly influenced market trends, generally negatively impacting stocks while benefiting gold and commodities [23]. 10. **Valuation Concerns**: High valuations in gold and U.S. stocks increase the risk of market corrections. However, there is no clear evidence that these factors will reverse the current bull market trends, suggesting a continued overweight in Chinese stocks and gold [25][28]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Commodity Allocation Strategy**: Increasing commodity allocations is recommended to hedge against potential changes in stock and gold bull markets. Commodities are currently undervalued and could benefit from various scenarios, including better-than-expected economic performance or geopolitical shocks [26][29]. 2. **Specific Asset Class Recommendations**: - **Chinese Stocks**: Maintain an overweight position with a more balanced style, anticipating value and cyclical sectors to catch up. - **Chinese Bonds**: Downgrade from standard to underweight due to better opportunities in other assets. - **U.S. Stocks**: Maintain a standard allocation, given the high valuations and better performance of non-dollar assets. - **Gold**: Continue to overweight but be cautious of volatility, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips rather than chasing prices [27][29].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for investment advisors to transition from being mere product salespeople to becoming comprehensive asset allocation experts, focusing on creating a wealth system that aligns with clients' life goals [6][20]. Group 1: Challenges in Current Practices - Many investment advisors find themselves trapped in a cycle of product sales due to traditional operational models, which limits their ability to communicate effectively and professionally [4][5]. - Clients are increasingly seeking holistic solutions that encompass growth, protection, inheritance, and liquidity, rather than just individual products [6]. Group 2: Systematic Upgrade to Professional Value - The article suggests that advisors must upgrade their roles to asset allocation experts, moving beyond just selling products to constructing and managing a wealth system tailored to clients' objectives [6]. - This upgrade does not require solitary effort; tools like AI can assist in enhancing advisors' capabilities [7]. Group 3: AI as a Professional Assistant - The AI asset allocation assistant, referred to as "Alice Advisor," can help advisors overcome limitations in visibility, tools, and efficiency, making professional planning a regular part of their work [10]. - The assistant allows for the integration of all asset classes into a single analysis, enabling advisors to make informed decisions based on a comprehensive view of clients' assets [13]. Group 4: Enhanced Diagnostic Capabilities - The AI assistant can provide deep diagnostics, moving from vague qualitative assessments to precise quantitative insights about clients' portfolios, such as identifying overexposure in equities or industry concentration [17]. - This capability allows advisors to respond quickly to complex client needs regarding global allocation and retirement planning, thereby transforming the advisor-client relationship [20]. Group 5: Efficient Solution Generation - The AI assistant can generate customized investment solutions in seconds, addressing complex client requests without the advisor needing to spend excessive time on calculations [21]. - This efficiency allows advisors to focus more on client communication and service rather than manual calculations [21].

Core Insights - The Chinese wealth management market is experiencing significant growth, with increasing importance in the global landscape, necessitating a reevaluation of asset allocation strategies in a complex geopolitical and economic environment [1] Group 1: Stock Allocation Value - High-net-worth clients in China prioritize asset value stability, often preferring to hold cash due to market risk aversion, but low interest rates make cash savings insufficient against inflation [2] - Asset allocation can enhance overall return potential while controlling risk; for conservative clients, a significant portion of funds is allocated to cash-like assets rather than pure cash [2] - UBS suggests a stock allocation of around 25% for Chinese clients, focusing on timing and sector selection rather than broad market entry [3] Group 2: Alternative Investments - Family offices are increasingly allocating 14% to 15% of their portfolios to alternative investments, up from single-digit percentages, despite their lower liquidity and longer investment horizons [4] - UBS recommends a diversified asset portfolio that includes 14% to 15% in alternative investments, alongside mid-term bonds and cash [4] Group 3: Gold Asset Allocation - Gold is viewed as a long-term investment rather than a short-term speculative asset, with central banks expected to purchase 900 to 950 tons of gold in 2025, maintaining a strong demand [5] - UBS forecasts a target gold price of $4,200 per ounce in the next 12 months, suggesting a 5% allocation to gold with a strategy of gradual investment rather than lump-sum purchases [5] Group 4: Art Collection - Wealth management encompasses not only financial investments but also personal and family needs, with art collection becoming a significant aspect of family legacy and value expression [6] - High-net-worth individuals are projected to allocate 20% of their wealth to art by 2025, with Chinese ultra-high-net-worth individuals leading at 44% [6] Group 5: Wealth Management Strategy - UBS aims to assist clients in achieving the "3L" goals: Liquidity, Longevity, and Legacy, with over $6.9 trillion in global investment assets [7] - The firm has over 15 years of experience in wealth management for high-net-worth clients in China, utilizing differentiated services through UBS Securities and UBS Switzerland [7] Group 6: Greater Bay Area Strategy - UBS emphasizes the importance of functional collaboration and institutional integration in the Greater Bay Area, leveraging Hong Kong's status as a financial hub to enhance cross-border business [8] - The firm focuses on serving high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth clients in China while connecting them to global opportunities [8] Group 7: Unique Value Proposition - UBS differentiates itself from other brokers and banks by offering unique value propositions and service dimensions [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in global stock markets, the impact of liquidity crises, and the potential investment opportunities arising from market fluctuations. Group 1: Market Performance - Global stock markets experienced a significant decline of nearly 3% from Monday to Thursday, followed by a rebound on Friday, but still ended the week down over 2% [3][4]. - The volatility was more pronounced in the Asia-Pacific and European markets, with A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, Korean stocks, and Japanese stocks fluctuating over 4% during the week [5]. - Other asset classes also showed considerable volatility, with gold retreating 7-8% from its peak and commodities like oil experiencing even larger declines [7]. Group 2: Liquidity Crisis - Typically, different asset classes do not move in tandem, but liquidity crises can lead to simultaneous fluctuations across global assets [11]. - Recent concerns about the uncertainty of interest rate cuts in December have heightened fears of a liquidity crisis, especially as the year-end approaches [13][14]. - During liquidity crises, correlations between different asset classes tend to increase, with small-cap stocks, growth stocks, and cryptocurrencies being particularly sensitive to liquidity changes [15]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Despite the short-term volatility, liquidity crises usually do not last long and tend to resolve within a few weeks [17]. - Positive news regarding potential interest rate cuts in December led to a rebound in global markets on Friday, with some Chinese concept stocks listed in the U.S. also seeing gains [18]. - The article suggests that if global assets become undervalued due to short-term fluctuations, it presents a good investment opportunity [23]. Group 4: Global Stock Index Insights - The article mentions a star rating system for global stock markets, indicating that in previous years like 2018, 2020, and 2022, the markets were rated as undervalued [24]. - Currently, the global stock market is rated around 3.2 stars, indicating a moderate level of valuation [26]. - There are global stock index funds available in overseas markets, but currently, there are no such funds in mainland China. However, a global index advisory portfolio has been introduced to simulate similar effects [28][29]. Group 5: Book Promotion - The article promotes a newly released book titled "The Long-Term Investment Guide," which has gained significant popularity and is noted for its comprehensive insights into stock market investments [34]. - The book emphasizes the importance of including a certain proportion of stock assets in family portfolios for long-term wealth accumulation [35].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of position management in investment, likening it to a "rudder" that helps navigate through market volatility, focusing on risk control and psychological strategies [3][4]. Group 1: Essence of Position Management - Position management is fundamentally about balancing "returns" and "risks," addressing how to allocate funds across different assets and how to dynamically adjust positions based on market conditions [5]. - A well-structured position management strategy can mitigate losses during market downturns while allowing for opportunities during market upswings, as illustrated by the example of maintaining a 60% stock and 40% bond allocation during the COVID-19 pandemic [5]. Group 2: Three Core Principles of Position Management - The first principle is "defensive priority," which emphasizes the importance of preserving capital and setting initial positions based on risk tolerance, such as a conservative 3:7 stock-to-bond ratio [6]. - The second principle is "dynamic rebalancing," which involves selling overperforming assets and buying undervalued ones to maintain a balanced portfolio [7][8]. - The third principle is "layered decision-making," distinguishing between strategic positions (60%-70% of total funds) for long-term holdings and tactical positions (30%-40%) for short-term opportunities [9][10]. Group 3: Practical Position Control Strategies and Cases - The "pyramid adding method" allows investors to accumulate positions gradually in volatile markets, reducing the risk of a single failed bottom-fishing attempt [11]. - The "volatility-weighted model" adjusts positions based on market volatility indicators like the VIX, allowing for strategic increases or decreases in stock holdings depending on market conditions [12][13][14]. - The "Kelly formula" helps determine the optimal investment proportion for individual stocks, ensuring that no single investment exceeds a calculated risk threshold [15][16]. Group 4: Responding to Extreme Markets - In bear markets, maintaining at least 20% cash for living expenses and opportunities, along with hedging assets, is crucial for risk management [17]. - In bull markets, retaining 10%-20% cash and implementing a phased profit-taking strategy can help lock in gains while avoiding the pitfalls of overexposure [18]. Group 5: Conclusion - Position management is portrayed as both an art and a science, focusing on rationality to counter greed and discipline to combat fear, ultimately aiming for long-term survival rather than quick wealth [19].

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges faced by individuals holding cash in the current economic environment, highlighting a significant increase in household savings and the associated investment risks [1][3][11] Group 1: Economic Context - As of October 2024, household deposits in China exceeded 145 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase, indicating a trend of cash accumulation among families and individuals [1] - Changes in consumer behavior during the pandemic have led to a greater emphasis on saving for emergencies, alongside adjustments in the real estate market and stock market volatility [1][3] Group 2: Investment Risks - Increased investment risks are a primary concern for cash holders, with real estate prices adjusting since 2021 and a nearly 20% year-on-year decline in national commercial housing sales area in the first three quarters of 2024 [3][4] - The stock market has experienced significant fluctuations, with many investors struggling to achieve consistent profits, even among blue-chip stocks [3][4] - The yield on bank wealth management products has decreased from around 4% to below 3%, increasing the risk for investors due to the breaking of rigid repayment guarantees [3][4] Group 3: Challenges in Entrepreneurship - The current entrepreneurial environment is more complex, with intense market competition and rising costs, such as rent and labor, making it difficult for new businesses to succeed [6][8] - For instance, over 70% of new restaurants close within their first year, illustrating the high failure rate in the food service industry [6] - E-commerce ventures face challenges such as high customer acquisition costs and severe competition, leading many to struggle to recoup their initial investments [6][8] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Diversification is recommended as a strategy to mitigate risks, encouraging individuals to spread their investments across various asset classes [7][11] - Long-term investment strategies, such as dollar-cost averaging, can help smooth out market volatility and reduce risk exposure [7][11] - Seeking professional financial advice is suggested for those lacking investment experience, as personalized asset allocation can enhance financial planning [11] Group 5: Personal Financial Planning - A balanced asset allocation strategy is proposed, with suggestions for holding 30% in cash, 40% in stable investment products, 20% in low-risk entrepreneurial projects, and 10% in personal development [12] - The importance of understanding individual risk tolerance and financial goals is emphasized, as each person's financial situation is unique [12]

- **Pring Cycle and its construction** - **Model Name**: Pring Cycle - **Construction Idea**: The Pring Cycle divides the economy and market into six stages based on the rotation performance of stocks, bonds, and commodities, helping investors adapt to different economic environments [13][16][17] - **Construction Process**: 1. **Stage Division**: - Stage 1: Recovery Early Phase - Bonds perform best, stocks slightly rise, commodities remain flat - Stage 2: Recovery Acceleration - Stocks lead, bonds weaken - Stage 3: Expansion Peak - Commodities start rising, stock growth slows, bonds decline - Stage 4: Overheat Phase - Commodities perform best, stocks decline, bonds remain flat or slightly drop - Stage 5: Growth Slowdown - Bonds improve, stocks and commodities weaken - Stage 6: Recession Phase - Bonds perform best, stocks rebound slightly, commodities perform worst [16][17][18] 2. Historical validation of Pring Cycle stages and their corresponding market performances [18] - **Evaluation**: Pring Cycle provides forward-looking insights by extracting "implied economic expectations" from market variables like prices, interest rates, and commodities, reflecting the broad economic direction [47] - **Macro Trend Signal (TS) and its construction** - **Factor Name**: Trend Score (TS) - **Construction Idea**: TS is built using monthly macroeconomic data to reflect real economic activities, corporate profits, and liquidity trends, offering a stable and cross-industry consistent confirmation signal [47] - **Construction Process**: 1. **Factor Selection**: Core macro factors include PMI New Orders, PPI YoY/MoM, M1 YoY, and M2 YoY, representing demand, profitability, and liquidity [26][29][30] 2. **Standardization**: Apply 12-month rolling Z-score to each factor for comparability [33] 3. **Weighted Aggregation**: Combine Z-scores using normalized weights to derive monthly raw TS [33] 4. **EWMA Smoothing**: Apply EWMA (α=0.5) to stabilize TS and clarify trend segments [33] 5. **Anti-Jump Rule**: Use 60-period rolling distribution with dual thresholds (35/65 outer, 45/55 inner) to classify TS into "Cautious/Neutral/Positive" states, ensuring stable macro state transitions [34] 6. **Practical Application**: Extend monthly TS to daily frequency with a 15-day lag for real-time use [33] - **Evaluation**: TS complements Pring Cycle by providing confirmation signals from the fundamental side, enhancing reliability and cross-industry consistency [47] - **Backtesting Results for Models and Factors** - **Pring Cycle**: Historical validation shows that recovery and positive macro signals yield the strongest positive returns across industries, with recovery > overheat > recession in certainty [45][47] - **Macro Trend Signal (TS)**: Positive TS signals outperform cautious and neutral states, with clear positive effects on market returns [45][47] - **Combined Strategy**: The Pring Cycle and TS framework consistently outperform benchmarks like CSI 300 in most years, with stable long-term excess returns and controlled drawdowns [56][59] - **Performance Metrics for Macro States** - **CSI 300**: - Cautious: Recovery 2.24%, Recession -0.08%, Overheat 0.50% - Neutral: Recovery 0.23%, Recession -2.50%, Overheat 6.21% - Positive: Recovery 2.74%, Recession 0.34%, Overheat 1.29% [41] - **CSI 2000**: - Cautious: Recovery 4.42%, Recession -1.06%, Overheat -0.16% - Neutral: Recovery 2.85%, Recession -0.54%, Overheat -3.76% - Positive: Recovery 3.14%, Recession 0.37%, Overheat 1.77% [42] - **Growth Enterprise Index**: - Cautious: Recovery 3.69%, Recession -0.67%, Overheat -2.90% - Neutral: Recovery -0.97%, Recession -1.64%, Overheat 1.62% - Positive: Recovery 4.31%, Recession 2.95%, Overheat 0.51% [43] - **Low Volatility Dividend Index**: - Cautious: Recovery 2.13%, Recession 0.76%, Overheat 0.60% - Neutral: Recovery -0.69%, Recession -3.12%, Overheat 8.05% - Positive: Recovery 1.51%, Recession 1.42%, Overheat 1.86% [44] - **Sector Performance under Macro States** - **Positive-Recovery**: Sectors like New Energy, Basic Chemicals, Consumer Services, and Growth Enterprise Index show strong returns [60][62] - **Positive-Overheat**: Sectors like Electronics, Basic Chemicals, Electric Equipment, and Nonferrous Metals exhibit sustained performance, shifting towards cyclical sectors [63][64] - **Risk-Adjusted Returns**: Manufacturing chains (e.g., Chemicals, Nonferrous Metals) maintain mid-to-high rankings across all macro states, while defensive sectors (e.g., Food & Beverage, Banks) dominate during downturns [64][66] - **Strategy Effectiveness** - The combined Pring Cycle and TS framework systematically captures trends and filters noise, demonstrating long-term executability and adaptability to macroeconomic changes [56][59]

Core Viewpoint - The article introduces the book "Continuous Investment," emphasizing the importance of consistent investment without timing the market to achieve financial freedom through cash flow accumulation [2][4]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The book discusses two common behaviors associated with market timing: investing based on valuation and predicting future market trends [6][9]. - It highlights that systematic investment (定投) is inherently non-timing based, focusing on regular investment intervals regardless of market conditions [12][22]. - The article suggests maintaining discipline in systematic investment, recommending a comfortable frequency such as weekly or monthly [13]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Investor Behavior - The article notes that from 2022 to 2024, a prolonged bear market occurred, with over 94% of investors using active selection strategies remaining profitable by 2025 Q3 [14][15]. - It emphasizes the importance of sticking to a systematic investment plan during market downturns to mitigate panic and emotional decision-making [15]. - The article illustrates that during high market valuations, investors can adjust their systematic investment to include other asset classes, such as bonds, instead of equities [16][22]. Group 3: Real-World Examples - The article references Warren Buffett's investment strategy, which involves using cash flow from his numerous private companies to fund systematic investments, adjusting asset allocation based on market conditions [16]. - It compares investment strategies to grocery shopping, where purchasing decisions are based on current prices rather than fixed choices, advocating for flexibility in investment selections [20]. - The article concludes that long-term investment success is more about having capital available than about timing the market [21].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：终身黑白 来源：雪球 01 知道自己要什么 比别人怎么看更重要 勇敢的面对自己想要什么，勇敢的去面对他成功的概率，勇敢的去面对他失败的可能。你得和自己较劲，而不是和别人的看法较劲。 老登也不是不想快，只是老登选择的最高权重是确保安全，所以要专注那些股息稳定，估值不高，经营成熟有护城河的企业。这类企业往往在市场 活跃度高的时候表现都不那么好，市值高不容易被炒作，想象空间小，不容易有题材。 对于别人的看法，不必在意。无论多厉害的人，能力圈总有边界，能力边界外我们都会觉得不合理。人不可能完全相互理解，如果他理解你，他就 选择和你一路同行了，正因为他不理解你，所以才会有不同的选择，你也不必太过执念别人的看法。 投资从来都不是一场匀速运动，风格适配，整体无效，甚至有一定回撤的时候都会遇见。投资也是一件伴随一生的事情，股市缺的永远不会是机 会，而是你参与股市的能力。要确保自己是在找方法，而不是在找借口。 02 顺境垒高墙 今年下半年有很多老登小登互喷的内容，其实我觉得完全没必要。 如果你选了一条路 ...