Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices are expected to experience significant increases in 2026 after a correction at the end of 2025, driven by geopolitical tensions and economic factors such as interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar [1][10]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices fell significantly at the end of 2025, dropping below $4,300 per ounce, but rebounded to nearly $4,500 in early January 2026, with a slight retreat to around $4,465 [2]. - Silver prices followed a similar trend, experiencing a drop before rising again, reaching $82.73 per ounce, close to last year's peak of $83.62, before settling around $79.6 [2]. - Domestic gold prices briefly fell below ¥1,000 per gram but quickly recovered, with prices reaching ¥1,402 per gram for certain gold jewelry [2]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - High demand for small-weight zodiac gold bars was observed, leading to stock shortages in some stores, particularly at the Beijing Caibai store, where customers were actively purchasing gold bars [4][8]. - The issuance of gold consumption vouchers in Beijing contributed to increased foot traffic and sales in some stores, while other locations experienced lower customer turnout due to rising gold prices [8][10]. Group 3: Expert Insights - Experts attribute the short-term rise in gold prices to heightened risk aversion following U.S. actions in Venezuela, alongside expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weaker dollar [10][11]. - Long-term support for gold prices is expected to remain strong due to ongoing central bank purchases and the "de-dollarization" trend, which is seen as a slow but steady process that will bolster gold's value over time [10][11]. - Analysts recommend caution in the short term, advising against chasing prices, while suggesting that long-term investors consider buying on dips due to the underlying supportive factors for gold and silver [10][11].

1月7日，在新的一年拉开序幕之际，全球市场依然被浓厚的不确定性迷雾所笼罩。ZFX山海证券 观察 到，被市场视为"避险天堂"的黄金与白银表现尤为亮眼，其总市值一度重返全球资产排行榜的前两名， 力压一众科技巨头。在当前避险情绪升温的环境下，实物资产的价值存储功能再次得到了市场的广泛公 认，而加密资产如比特币目前则维持在第八位。 根据 CompaniesMarketCap 最新的统计数据，黄金以 31.1 万亿美元的庞大市值稳坐全球资产头把交椅。 ZFX山海证券 表示，白银与半导体巨头英伟达（Nvidia）之间的次席争夺战已进入白热化阶段。尽管英 伟达受益于人工智能算力需求的激增而势头强劲，但白银在近期多次反超英伟达，展现出贵金属在动荡 局势中的强劲爆发力。投资者在应对全球性贸易争端与潜在地缘冲突时，倾向于将资金撤出高风险板 块，转而配置具有长久历史背书的贵金属。 宏观层面的政策转向也是驱动这一现象的关键。美联储新管理团队领导下的降息预期，是促使金银价格 屡创新高的核心动能。目前，金价与银价已分别触及 4500 美元和 80 美元附近的历史高点。尽管这股资 金流尚未完全涌入加密货币市场，但ZFX山海证券 认为，随着 ...

数据显示，1月7日上海黄金现货价格报价1005.00元/克，相较于期货主力价格（998.90元/克）升水6.01 元/克。 尽管欧洲多国发布联合声明支持丹麦，警告现有边界不容协商，但特朗普不排除动武夺取格陵兰，白宫 明确表示出兵占领是选项之一。 【黄金期货最新行情】 | 1月7日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 998.90 | -0.17% | 200100 | 126147 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 【机构观点】 银河期货：地缘主导 贵金属短期内或偏强震荡 此前，由于COMEX市场提高贵金属的保证金、叠加年末获利了结影响，金银在高位进入宽幅震荡。但 节后，一方面，金银前期的宏观和基本面的利多因素都尚存，另外，近日拉美、格陵兰岛等相关的地缘 事件，不仅点燃了市场的避险情绪，更加剧了当前逆全球化趋势下市场对于有限的矿产资源的拥趸，且 板块间的轮动也在品种间互相形成资金和情绪的正向反馈，推动金银和其他有色贵金属共同上涨。当前 市场情绪较为亢奋，预计金银仍有望 ...

1月7日，昨日黄金走了一个偏高震荡行情，亚盘开盘小幅上扬，午盘后反弹至4470一线进场空单，美盘 前回落至4440上方，空单小赚20余美金出场。美盘再度反弹，晚间最高是到了4497美元，最终则是收盘 于4493美元，日线收于一根小阳线。 黄金：4460-4465一线做多，止损4450，目标看4500-4520-4550一线。跌破4450则反弹出多做空，看4400 破位。另外，直接突破4500可以回调最多，依次上看。 今日重点关注的财经数据与事件：2026年1月7日周三 21：15美国12月ADP就业人数 23：00美国12月ISM非制造业PMI 23：00美国11月JOLTs职位空缺 23：00美国12月全球供应链压力指数 从技术上来看，在避险情绪未消的情况下今日黄金暂时还是保留一定的看强预期，可以看强但莫要盲从 追高，目前出现的调整动作或许预示多头动能的衰竭，避险情绪的渐减，日内下方可着重关注10日线 4430-20一带的争夺，而如果晚间数据能够有利空加持，那么黄金或可能跌回至5日线4410-00一带内。 日内上方则继续关注4500整数关口，在此之前早间下跌破位口4480也值得加以关注。 总之，对于已持有的 ...

1月7日，周三，亚市早盘，现货黄金先小涨后下跌，一度触及4500美元关口，目前交投于4470附近，下 跌约0.5%。周二，现货黄金价格延续了前一交易日的涨势，进一步上涨约1%，收盘于4494美元每盎 司。黄金价格的这一波上涨，主要源于投资者对全球不确定性的担忧大幅增加，特别是周末美国对委内 瑞拉的军事行动引发了广泛的避险情绪，推动资金大量流入贵金属市场，白银今天也触及到了82.74美 元高位。 基本消息面： 美国与委内瑞拉的地缘冲突仍在升级，遭美方抓捕的委内瑞拉总统马杜罗首次出庭并坚决否认所有指 控，其代理政府依托160吨黄金储备维持运转，成为与美方博弈的重要筹码，而联合国安理会紧急会议 上多国谴责美方单边行动，凸显国际局势紧张；媒体报道称，川普正讨论获取格陵兰岛的方案，包 括"动用军事手段推进目标"，他认为格陵兰岛对美国军事安全至关重要，并批评丹麦在保护该岛方面做 得不足，这进一步加剧地缘政治紧张情绪。 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为18.3%，维持利率不变的概率为81.7%。到3月 累计降息25个基点的概率为40.7%，维持利率不变的概率为52.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为6 ...

Group 1 - The current trading price of London gold is around 1002.52 yuan per gram, with a decline of 0.72%, having reached a high of 1011.15 yuan and a low of 1002.02 yuan during the session [1] - The short-term outlook for London gold appears to be fluctuating [1] Group 2 - President Trump warned Republican lawmakers that failure to win the 2026 midterm elections could lead to his impeachment by Democrats, emphasizing the need to focus on issues like living costs [2] - Trump criticized some members of the Republican Party for not complying with party directives and called for a more proactive approach to Democratic healthcare policies [3] - The Republican Party currently holds a slim majority in the House of Representatives, which has led to some frustration for Trump and Speaker Johnson [3] Group 3 - Recent U.S. actions against Venezuela have heightened global risk aversion, impacting countries with strained relations with the U.S. and rich resources [4] - The Federal Reserve's dovish signals regarding potential interest rate cuts have contributed to a decline in the U.S. dollar index, supporting a strong performance in gold [4] - Gold prices have shown volatility, with significant movements around the 4500 yuan mark, indicating potential for further highs or corrections depending on market stability [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives specific ratings for gold and copper futures: - **Gold**: Short - term:震荡 (fluctuating); Medium - term: 强势 (strong); Intraday: 震荡偏强 (slightly bullish in intraday trading) [1] - **Copper**: Short - term: 震荡 (fluctuating); Medium - term: 强势 (strong); Intraday: 震荡偏弱 (slightly bearish in intraday trading) [1] 2. Core Views - **Gold**: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. The recovery of liquidity and geopolitical conflicts are favorable for the gold price. Although the market panic did not spread, the high post - holiday risk appetite and liquidity in the market are the main reasons for pushing up the gold price. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the high position in late December [1][3] - **Copper**: It is recommended to take a long - term bullish view. The recovery of liquidity and strong industrial expectations push up the copper price. The core drivers of the copper price increase since December are macro - liquidity easing, mine - end disturbances, and the long - term AI narrative [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the gold price fluctuated upwards, and it maintained a strong operation at night. New York gold reached above the $4500 mark, and Shanghai gold was approaching the 1010 - yuan mark [3] - **Driving Factors**: On January 3, the US military carried out an air strike on Venezuela and captured the Venezuelan president, which increased the market's risk - aversion sentiment and led to a higher opening of the gold price. The high post - holiday risk appetite and liquidity in the market are the main reasons for pushing up the gold price [3] Copper - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, Shanghai copper continued to increase positions and rise, standing above the 105,000 - yuan mark during the day, and LME copper stood above the $13,300 mark. After the Asian session, LME copper once erased the intraday gain of more than $200, while the copper price recovered again before the domestic night session. There was a large divergence in short - term internal and external funds [4] - **Driving Factors**: Since December, the core drivers of the copper price increase are macro - liquidity easing, mine - end disturbances, and the long - term AI narrative. The easing of US and Japanese central bank monetary policies has restored market liquidity, and the market expects the Fed to continue to cut interest rates in 2026. The delay in the commissioning of the second - phase project of Tongling Nonferrous' Mirador Copper Mine in Ecuador due to political instability and administrative issues has led to the expectation of lower - than - expected new global copper mine supply [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment: - Strongly Bullish (Trend Intensity = 2): Container Freight Index (European Line) [127] - Bullish (Trend Intensity = 1): Gold, Silver, Copper, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy, Nickel, Carbonate Lithium, Rubber, Synthetic Rubber, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Methanol, Urea, Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil [6][10][13][16][19][22][25][29][62][65][74][80][87][92][116] - Neutral (Trend Intensity = 0): Iron Ore, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Silicon Ferrosilicon, Manganese Silicon, Log, Paraxylene, PTA, MEG, LLDPE, PP, Glass, Styrene, LPG, Propylene, PVC, Short - Fiber, Bottle Chip, Offset Printing Paper, Pure Benzene, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal, Soybean, Corn, Cotton, Egg, Live Pig, Peanut [36][40][45][53][57][68][71][84][96][103][111][128][131][135][139][145][148][157][161][164][170] - Bearish (Trend Intensity = - 1): Sugar [155] Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures, including their current market trends, influencing factors, and future outlooks. It emphasizes the importance of considering both macro - economic and industry - specific factors when making investment decisions in the commodity futures market. For example, geopolitical events, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics all play significant roles in determining commodity prices. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. With geopolitical uncertainties such as the Trump administration's discussion of obtaining Greenland, gold prices are supported [6]. - **Silver**: A new high is yet to be broken. Market sentiment and macro - economic factors are influencing its price movement [6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Driven by computing power demand, the price is strong. Nvidia's positive outlook on data - center chip revenue and China's copper import data contribute to the upward trend [10]. - **Zinc**: Running strongly. Price increases are accompanied by changes in trading volume and inventory [13]. - **Lead**: LME inventory reduction supports the price. Geopolitical news and market sentiment also have an impact [16]. - **Tin**: Trading in a range. Supply - demand balance and macro - economic factors are key considerations [19]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillating strongly. Alumina has rebounded significantly, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [22]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between real - world pressure and cycle - change narratives, resulting in wide - range fluctuations. Indonesia's policies on nickel production and exports are important influencing factors [25]. - **Stainless Steel**: The real - world fundamentals are dragging down the market, and the disk is mainly influenced by Indonesia's policies [25]. Energy - Related Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The market is worried about long - term supply surplus, and geopolitical tensions have not intensified, leading to a decline in international oil prices [58]. - **Fuel Oil**: Turning strong, short - term upward movement is more likely. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the upward trend, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels has narrowed slightly [116]. Chemical Commodities - **PTA**: In a high - level oscillating market. Supply - demand balance and cost factors are important [57]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and there is still pressure in the medium term. Supply and demand in the polyester industry and inventory levels are key factors [57]. - **Methanol**: Short - term upward trend. Geopolitical events and inventory expectations are influencing the price [87]. - **Urea**: The oscillation center is moving up. Agricultural demand expectations and supply - demand dynamics are important [92]. - **Styrene**: Short - term oscillation. Market valuation and export volume are influencing factors [96]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has changed little. Supply and demand in the soda ash industry are relatively stable [48]. - **LPG**: The import cost is firm, and attention should be paid to the realization of negative feedback. PDH and other related industry data are important [103]. - **Propylene**: Demand is stable, and the spot price is slightly rising [103]. - **PVC**: Short - term upward trend, but the upside space may be limited. High production and inventory levels are constraints [111]. Agricultural Commodities - **Palm Oil**: Fundamental drivers are weak, and attention should be paid to macro - economic sentiment [139]. - **Soybean Oil**: Trading in a range, and attention should be paid to spread opportunities [139]. - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight US soybean prices closed lower, and Dalian soybean meal may oscillate. US soybean supply and demand reports and China's soybean imports are important factors [145]. - **Soybean**: Oscillating. Market sentiment and supply - demand balance are key considerations [145]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. Price changes in different regions and import - related news are important [148]. - **Sugar**: Trading at a low level. Production and consumption data in major producing countries and import policies are important [152]. - **Cotton**: Maintaining a strong trend. Spot trading and downstream demand in the cotton industry are important [157]. - **Egg**: Sentiment in the far - month contracts has weakened. Supply - demand balance and feed prices are key factors [161]. - **Live Pig**: There is still inventory accumulation behavior. Spot prices and futures contract prices are changing, and inventory registration is also an important factor [164]. - **Peanut**: Oscillating. Spot market conditions in different regions are relatively stable [170]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The 02 contract is making up for the premium, and for far - month contracts, attention should be paid to premium - making and geopolitical events [118]. - **Log**: Trading at a low level. Market supply and demand and macro - economic factors are influencing the price [53].

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 7 日 黄金：避险情绪回升 白银：新高待破 业 服 务 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2602 | 984.84 | -2.22% | #N/A | #N/A | | | 黄金T+D | 982.20 | -2.26% | #N/A | #N/A | | | Comex黄金2602 | 4352.30 | 0.05% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | 沪银2602 | 18140 | -0.35% | #N/A | #N/A | | 价 格 | 白银T+D | 18119 | -3.67% | #N/A | #N/A | | | Comex白银2602 | 76.015 | 6.11% | - | - | | | 伦敦银现货 | #N/A | #N/A | ...

Group 1 - The core event involves the U.S. military's capture of Venezuelan President Maduro, which has significantly impacted global financial markets, causing volatility in U.S. stock futures, a surge in gold and silver prices, and a decline in the U.S. dollar index [1][3][5] - Trump's declaration of intent to "take over Venezuela's key energy assets" indicates a strategic move to leverage geopolitical actions for economic benefits, highlighting the intertwining of military and economic strategies [3][5] - The immediate market reaction saw energy and defense stocks benefiting, with Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics shares rising approximately 3%, while the Dow Jones index increased by 1.23%, reaching a historical high [5][10] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index had already declined nearly 9.5% in 2025, marking its worst annual performance since 2017, reflecting a loss of market trust in the dollar [7][13] - The Federal Reserve's response to market instability includes a neutral stance on interest rate cuts, with an 18.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut in January, while 81.7% of the market expects rates to remain unchanged [8][10] - Despite the Fed's liquidity management operations, which have become a norm, there is a growing concern about the sustainability of the dollar's value amid rising national debt exceeding $38 trillion [10][13] Group 3 - The dollar's dominance is being challenged as countries increasingly pursue local currency settlements, particularly in the energy sector, undermining the dollar's long-standing monopoly in pricing commodities [15][19] - The International Monetary Fund reported that the dollar's share of global allocated foreign exchange reserves fell to 56.92% in Q3 2025, signaling a potential shift in the global monetary landscape [15][19] - The trend of central banks favoring gold as a reserve asset, with gold prices soaring nearly 68% in 2025, indicates a move towards tangible assets as a hedge against fiat currency risks [15][19] Group 4 - The structural issues facing the dollar are becoming apparent, as political influences on monetary policy raise concerns about the future of the dollar as a global reserve currency [19][20] - The evolving international monetary system is seeing the emergence of multiple anchor currencies, including gold, the yuan, and the euro, suggesting a decline in the dollar's singular dominance [19][20] - The future may not necessitate a single "world currency," but rather a variety of "regional currencies," each operating independently [20]