据英国金融时报：与特朗普达成的协议将使欧盟面临比英国更高的关税，欧盟预计不能像英国钢铁、汽 车等受行业关税限制的产品那样，获得对美国市场的同等准入待遇。布鲁塞尔方面准备签署一项临 时"框架"协议，协议规定在谈判继续期间，美国的"对等"关税为10%。 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国总统特朗普决定将对等关税的实施时间推迟到8月1日，这一决定背后，又是财长贝森特发挥了关键 作用。 贝森特认为，与印度和欧盟等贸易伙伴的谈判正在取得进展，因此建议特朗普给予更多时间。 这已经是贝森特在此轮"关税战"中第二次"拯救"全球金融市场。 周三，特朗普还预告了一项根据另一法律授权实施的新一轮关税计划，计划对铜产品征收50%关税，对 药品征收最高达200%的关税，理由是"国家安全"。企业将有最多18个月的过渡期，以迁移相关药品供 应链。卢特尼克补充说，铜的相关公告将在周二发布，关于半导体和药品的新税率将在8月1日前公布。 仍有谈判空间，但并非每个国家都能达成协议 特朗普原希望"乘胜追击"，贝森特力挽狂澜 知情人士称，在发布延后谈判期限这一决定的前一个周末，特朗普在其位于新泽西州贝德明斯特的私人 高尔夫俱乐部内，通过电话和私下交谈与盟友进行磋商。他一度在"设定新的8月最后期限"与"直接寄出 不含日期、仅标示新关税税率的信件"之间权衡。 特朗普曾在公开场合表示，未来可能不再通过谈判达成协议以避免征税。但在听取了贝森特的意见后， 他改变了初衷——贝森特 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives mid - term outlooks for each energy and chemical product, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "oscillating strongly" [278]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas macro - sentiment is warm, and crude oil is stronger than chemicals. The extension of the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period by the US boosts the risk appetite of the commodity market, and the imbalance in crude oil inventory accumulation and the strength of diesel cracking spreads lead to the limited impact of OPEC+ production increase on oil prices [1]. - The domestic chemical industry continues to oscillate and is looking for a new direction. Most energy and chemical products are currently showing weak supply - demand trends, with relatively small inventory pressure, and the fluctuation of the cost - end crude oil becomes the dominant factor [2]. - It is advisable to adopt an oscillating mindset towards the energy and chemical industry and wait for new supply - demand drivers [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News - Houthi rebels attacked a Liberian - flagged cargo ship in the Red Sea, causing at least two crew members to die. - Russia's daily crude oil shipments dropped to 312 million barrels as of July 6, the lowest since February, a 3% decrease from the previous period. - Ecuador's state - owned oil company declared force majeure due to potential damage to two parallel oil pipelines caused by heavy rainfall, and oil production decreased from 46 million barrels on July 1 to 33 million barrels on July 2. - EIA predicts that US oil production in 2025 will be 13.37 million barrels per day, lower than the previous forecast, and raises the expected average price of Brent crude oil futures in 2025 to $68.89 per barrel [5]. 3.2 Variety Analysis Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: EIA's downward adjustment of production forecasts and Red Sea geopolitical events briefly boosted oil prices. - **Logic**: Macro and refined oil performances are good, but the upside space is limited. The reduction in Russia's seaborne exports, the increase in US crude oil inventories, and the decrease in refined oil inventories affect the market [4][6]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The downward pressure on asphalt futures prices is relatively large. - **Logic**: OPEC+ over - production, sufficient domestic asphalt raw material supply, and weak demand lead to an over - estimated absolute price of asphalt [8][10]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices is relatively large. - **Logic**: OPEC+ over - production, the weakening of power generation demand, and the increase in import tariffs lead to an increase in supply and a decrease in demand [11]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices follow the oscillation of crude oil. - **Logic**: It follows crude oil, but faces shipping demand decline, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, with low valuation [12]. LPG - **Viewpoint**: The cost - end support weakens, the fundamental pattern of supply - demand remains loose, and the PG futures market may oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: The reduction of CP prices, the accumulation of US propane inventories, and weak domestic demand lead to a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [12][14]. PX - **Viewpoint**: The terminal start - up declines, and PX oscillates weakly. - **Logic**: OPEC+ is expected to maintain production increase, and the terminal market support is poor, with a downward trend in absolute prices [15]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: Terminal negative feedback causes PTA to oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: The expected weakening of the crude oil market, the increase in PTA spot circulation, and the possible reduction of downstream polyester factory production lead to a decline in the market [15]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Two sets of devices are planned to be put into production, and styrene oscillates weakly. - **Logic**: The supply - demand of styrene itself is expected to weaken, and port inventories accumulate, leading to a decline in spot prices [16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: Overseas device restarts accelerate, and ethylene glycol continues to oscillate. - **Logic**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the 09 contract may continue to oscillate, while the 01 contract may face more pressure [18][19]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The basis is stable, sales are sluggish, and short - fiber continues to oscillate. - **Logic**: Short - fiber sales have been weak for two weeks, and the downstream demand may reach an inflection point [19][20]. Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: It follows the fluctuation of raw materials, and the processing fee remains low. - **Logic**: Bottle chips are in the maintenance cycle, and the processing fee has limited downward space [20][22]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The port price continues to decline, and methanol oscillates downward. - **Logic**: Supply contraction during the maintenance period, weak terminal demand in the off - season, and the return of Iranian device operation lead to price oscillation [24]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are both weak, and exports support the market. Urea may oscillate in the short term. - **Logic**: Indian urea import tenders boost the market, but supply and demand are both weak, and exports support the price [25]. LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: The US delays the tariff time - point, and LLDPE oscillates. - **Logic**: Oil price oscillation, weak raw material support, high supply, and low downstream demand lead to oscillation [27]. PP - **Viewpoint**: Maintenance slightly increases, and PP oscillates in the short term. - **Logic**: Oil price oscillation, weak cost - end support, high supply, and low downstream demand lead to oscillation [28]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: Low valuation and weak supply - demand lead to PVC oscillating. - **Logic**: New capacity is expected to be put into production, demand is in the off - season, and exports are difficult to increase, but market sentiment warms up [31]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot rebound slows down, and caustic soda oscillates. - **Logic**: The increase in comprehensive cost provides support, while the procurement of large enterprises and the weakening of downstream demand limit the increase [32]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: Different varieties have different cross - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 1.14 with a change of - 0.01 [36]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, like asphalt's basis being 236 with a change of - 18 and 91740 warehouse receipts [37]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: There are cross - variety spread data and changes, such as the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 254 with a change of 30 [39]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report lists the basis and spread monitoring of various chemicals such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data summaries are not provided in the text [40][52][63].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the Trump administration's decision to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries, including several Southeast Asian nations, highlighting the potential impact on trade relations and economic strategies in the region [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Details - The tariffs imposed on Southeast Asian countries include 25% for Malaysia, 32% for Indonesia, 36% for Thailand and Cambodia, and a maximum of 40% for Laos and Myanmar [3][4]. - Cambodia's tariff was reduced from 49% to 36%, while Laos and Myanmar still face high tariffs of 40% and 44% respectively [3][6]. Group 2: Trade Negotiations - Southeast Asian countries are expressing a willingness to negotiate, but the changes in tariff rates are minimal, with Malaysia's rate increasing from 24% to 25% [4]. - U.S. Secretary of State Rubio's visit to Malaysia is expected to address tariff issues, marking his first visit to an Asian country outside of traditional allies Japan and South Korea [4]. Group 3: Cambodia's Trade Agreement - Cambodia may become the second Southeast Asian country to reach a trade agreement with the U.S. after Vietnam, with a joint statement on "reciprocal tariffs" expected soon [6]. - In 2024, Cambodia's total exports are projected to reach $26.2 billion, with nearly 40% of its exports going to the U.S., making it the largest export destination for Cambodia [6]. Group 4: Other Southeast Asian Countries - Thailand is accelerating trade negotiations with the U.S., proposing a new trade plan to reduce the 36% tariff and aiming for a significant reduction in trade surplus with the U.S. over the next five to eight years [6]. - Indonesia's Economic Coordinating Minister is traveling to the U.S. to continue discussions on the tariff issue, emphasizing the government's commitment to active negotiations [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game in the market is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [1][2]. - The short - term market may mainly rebound. Risk - preferring investors are advised to try to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 and try to go short on the EC2512 contract above 1650, setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage strategies. For the long - term, it is advised to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further judgments [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Sentiment and Macro Factors - The threat of US tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals led to a 17% overnight increase in New York copper, boosting market bullish sentiment [1]. - Trump's tariff policies, including the postponement of the "reciprocal tariff" implementation to August 1st and the announcement of tariff rates for 14 trading partners, have an impact on the market. The market has digested the negative information, and bullish sentiment is high [2][4]. Shipping Indexes - On July 7, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2258.04 points, up 6.3% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1557.77 points, down 3.8% [1]. - On July 4, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1285.2 points, down 7.92% from the previous period; the European route was 1442.5 points, down 0.03%; the US West route was 1176.6 points, down 24.27% [1]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price on July 4 was 1763.49 points, down 98.02 points from the previous period. The SCFI European route price was 2101 USD/TEU, up 3.50%; the US West route was 2089 USD/FEU, down 18.97% [1]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index on July 4 was 1342.99 points, down 1.9% from the previous period; the European route was 1694.30 points, up 3.3%; the US West route was 1084.28 points, down 10.5% [1]. Futures Market - On July 8, the main contract 2508 closed at 2006.2, with a 7.16% increase, a trading volume of 57,700 lots, and an open interest of 35,100 lots, an increase of 536 lots from the previous day [2]. - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16%, the margin is adjusted to 26%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [3]. PMI and Investor Confidence Index - The eurozone's June manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4, the service PMI was 50 (a two - month high), and the composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [1]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May [1]. - The US June Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52, the service PMI was 53.1, and the composite PMI was 52.8 [1].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 09 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：短期偏强震荡 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | | | 20525 | 115 | -110 | 325 | -190 | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | | | 20540 | l | ー | ー | l | | LME铝3M收盘价 | | | 2577 | 14 | -25 | 127 | -74 | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | | | 109583 | -39087 | -25051 | -58740 | -62353 | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 电解铝 | | 254726 | -598 | -28373 | 4682 ...

莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 22050 | -0.18% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 2683 | -1.92% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 158517 | -1989 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 9067 | 4682 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 118874 | -7658 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 199852 | -2843 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | 90 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -22.05 | -0.41 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | 广东 0# 锌升贴水 | 20 | 0 | 进口提单溢价（美 | 135 | 0 | | （元/吨） | | | 元/ ...

2025 年 07 月 09 日 铜：美国可能对铜加征关税，美铜价格大涨 | 季先飞 | | --- | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 | | jixianfei@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 79,620 | 0.44% | 80030 | 0.51% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,665 | -1.22% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 61,263 | -14,051 | 207,382 | 2,876 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 20,076 | 8,490 | 277,000 | -4,142 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 19,109 | -2,573 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 102,500 | 5,100 ...

2025年07月09日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 招商评论 铜 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏强运行。 基本面：特朗普称 8 月 1 日起实施对等关税、不会再推迟，警告欧盟征税函将至。特朗普威胁征 50%铜关税， 预期七月稍晚或者八月一日落地。纽约铜大涨，但伦敦似乎交易关税落地，反而震荡走弱。美债收益率上行， 美元指数短期偏强。华东华南平水铜现货升水 50 元和贴水 100 元成交，国内下游需求淡季明显。伦敦结构 79 美金 back。 交易策略：建议等待整理充分后逢低买入。 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 铝 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2508 合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.56%，收于 20410 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 240 元/吨， LME 价格 2589.5 美元/吨。 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，周度运行产能稳定。需求方面，周度铝材开工率下降 1%。 交易策略：宏观环境转弱，下游消费淡季氛围浓厚，铝材开工率持续下降，铝锭库存持续累库，对价格支撑 有所减弱，预计价格震荡偏弱，需关注宏观情绪变化。建议观望。 风险提示：海内外宏观政策变化。 氧 化 铝 市场表现：昨日氧 ...

新华社北京7月9日电 继下令延长"对等关税"90天暂缓期至8月1日后，美国总统特朗普8日称，这一日期"不会再变"，还表示将对所有进口到 美国的铜征收50%的新关税。 特朗普在"真实社交"上的帖文截图 特朗普：不会再延期 特朗普8日在社交媒体"真实社交"上写道："根据昨天发给各国的信函，以及今明两天和接下来一段时间内将要发送的信函，关税将于2025年8 月1日开始实施。" 他强调："这一日期没有变化，以后也不会变！" 特朗普当天在白宫召开内阁会议时还表示，将对所有进口到美国的铜征收50%的新关税，但没有透露新关税生效具体时间。 7日，特朗普在社交媒体上陆续发布了他写给日本、韩国、马来西亚、哈萨克斯坦、南非、老挝、缅甸、突尼斯、波黑、印度尼西亚、孟加拉 国、塞尔维亚、柬埔寨、泰国等14国领导人的信函，表示将分别对这些国家的进口产品征收25%至40%不等的关税。 在这些内容几乎完全相同的信中，特朗普警告收信国领导人称，如果想提高关税作为回应，美国将在此次税率基础上再提高同等额度的关 税。同时，如果这些国家或其企业决定在美国境内生产产品，将不会被征收关税。如果相关国家将国内市场向美国开放，同时消除关税和非关税 贸易壁 ...