本周一，ISM还发布了制造业数据，显示制造业连续第三个月萎缩。与此同时，由于关税的影响，供应 商交货时间创下近三年来的新高。 特朗普总统对进口商品加征关税的政策时常"无序实施"，令企业陷入混乱。经济学家指出，关税带来的 不确定性正在干扰企业的财务规划和供应链管理。零售、航空、汽车等多个行业的公司已经取消或推迟 了对2025年的财务指引。 尽管大多数经济学家仍不预期今年会出现衰退，"滞胀"（即经济增长乏力但物价持续上升)已成为主流 担忧。 美国服务业5月出现近一年来的首次萎缩，同时企业面临更高的投入成本，显示美国经济正面临"低增长 +高通胀"的滞胀风险。 报告中，新订单指数从4月的52.3骤降至46.4，表明早前为规避关税而提前采购的"抢跑"效应正在消退。 客户普遍认为现有库存水平偏高，不利于近期的服务业活动增长。 美国供应管理协会(ISM)周三公布，5月非制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)降至49.9，低于荣枯线50，也是 自2024年6月以来的最低水平。4月该指数为51.6。外媒调查的经济学家此前普遍预计该指数将回升至 52.0。 与此同时，供应商交货表现继续恶化。服务业供应商交货指数从4月的51.3升至5月的 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 策略深度报告 关税博弈下的大类资产策略 报告日期： 2025年06月04日 核心结论： 5/12中美会谈联合声明大超预期，虽然后续谈判或仍有波折，且行业关税值得警惕，但关税冲击最激烈的阶段基本过去，市场情绪逐步修复。海外宏观聚焦滞和胀角力， 交易逻辑沿着滞胀-衰退-宽松轮动。美股走强，美债和美元走势背离，衰退风险仍需警惕。美股冲击前高动能不足，预计高位震荡。美债脉冲4.5后的做多机会显现，可逐步配置。黄 金短期震荡，关注3150附近支撑。国内进入政策观察期、经济降温期，业绩与估值再平衡，预计A股区间震荡，重回哑铃策略，关注小盘成长和低波红利。 关税进展：升级后缓和，资产逻辑摇摆 关税动向：中美和谈比市场最乐观的预期还要乐观，关税冲击最激烈的阶段基本过去，后续关注行业关税。 关税影响：若24的对等关税能在90天内如期取消，30关税对中国GDP的拖累在1个百分点左右，对应政策对冲的必要性和紧迫性降低，进入政策观望期。 资产逻辑：大类资产避险资产占优-权益资产修复-震荡运行，已修复4/3以来跌幅。 海外策略：滞与胀角力 ，等待降息信号 海外宏观：目前滞的压力缓和，降息推迟至9月，年内仅有两次 ...

尽管美国总统特朗普一直倡导" drill, baby, drill"（指大力开采石油天然气），但大型投资者对能源股的 热情已经消退。 根据美国银行的数据，在过去三个月里，大型活跃型共同基金对能源股的减持幅度超过了所有其他板 块，对冲基金做空能源股的比例也高于标普500指数中的任何其他板块。对能源板块的悲观情绪，是在 特朗普第一个任期内表现平平之后出现的。 美国银行指出，该板块强劲的自由现金流生成能力，表明能源股状况良好，可以在物价上涨时期为投资 者提供股息收入。 与市场其他板块相比，该板块也很好地隔绝了关税的影响，因为美国银行认为能源公司将基本不受保护 主义贸易政策的影响。 然而，从历史上看，能源板块对油价一直很敏感，这可能是一个担忧，因为原油价格仍陷于低迷。但自 2016年以来，能源板块对油价的敏感度下降了三分之一，美国银行将其归因于该板块对派发股息的重 视。这意味着在增长放缓和能源价格较低的滞胀情景下，该板块将受到保护。 该行美国股票和量化策略主管Savita Subramanian写道："如果滞胀是基本情景，能源板块更有可能跑赢 大盘，而不是跑输大盘。" 然而，尽管机构投资者正在逃离这个领域，美国银行却 ...

Core Insights - The global precious metals market in 2025 is influenced by geopolitical tensions, with ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East driving demand for gold as a safe haven [1] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift, including a reduction in the scale of Treasury bonds, has heightened market volatility and concerns over "stagflation" risks [1] - Central banks are expected to continue purchasing gold, with the World Gold Council reporting that global central bank gold purchases will exceed 1,000 tons for the third consecutive year, and China's gold reserves have increased to 73.61 million ounces [1] Market Dynamics - Geopolitical events, such as the occupation of mining areas in the Democratic Republic of Congo and trade tensions from U.S. tariffs, are creating ripples in the market [3] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are anticipated to influence market conditions, with potential rate cuts in the coming years, although a resilient job market may delay easing [3] - Industrial demand for gold and silver is expected to surge, with gold applications in semiconductor packaging and aerospace materials doubling since 2020, and silver demand driven by the photovoltaic industry [3] Risk Management Strategies - The company has established a robust risk management system, including a direct connection to the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) for real-time market data [3] - The platform employs an intelligent alert system that utilizes AI algorithms to analyze key economic indicators, ensuring timely execution of trades and risk control [3] - A multi-layered technical defense system, including firewalls and SSL encryption, has been implemented to protect against market volatility [3] Compliance and Security - The company is a member of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange with AA class certification, ensuring transaction transparency and compliance with regulatory standards [3] - Client funds are stored in separate accounts at licensed banks in Hong Kong, with daily audits by PwC, ensuring high levels of security and rapid withdrawal processes [5] Investment Strategies - The platform offers various investment strategies, from beginner to advanced levels, allowing users to test trading logic with small positions and utilize trend-following strategies [5] - Advanced strategies include a diversified asset allocation approach, with a focus on gold ETFs and silver futures to enhance returns [5] - Professional-level strategies involve quantitative models and high-frequency trading to exploit price discrepancies across different exchanges [5]

鉴于特朗普反复无常的关税政策，周二发言的美联储官员罕见地都对通胀的上行风险发出警告，以此支 撑他们谨慎的降息立场。 许多经济学家和政策制定者表示，他们预计特朗普的关税将放缓经济增长并推高价格，影响的规模取决 于关税的实施方式。 根据期货合约的定价，市场普遍预计政策制定者在6月17日至18日于华盛顿举行的会议上会维持利率不 变。官员们将在此次会议上发布对利率、经济增长、通胀和劳动力市场的最新预测。 博斯蒂克表示，亚特兰大联储的经济学家研究表明，与关税相关的价格上涨将在未来几周开始显现。他 说，如果与贸易伙伴达成协议导致关税降低，这些价格压力可能会消退。但他表示，如果"高进口关税 持续存在，那么情况可能会相反"。 博斯蒂克称，如果关税引发的价格上涨看起来是"一次性的冲击"，官员们或许能够"忽略"这些上涨。但 他表示，如果关税引发更持久的通胀，风险就不同了。 "那么，通胀和更高的通胀预期就有可能以更持久的方式固化，这可能需要政策做出回应，"博斯蒂克 说。 在与记者的通话中，博斯蒂克被问及，在不存在高度不确定性的情况下，近期的通胀数据是否值得降 息。美联储青睐的物价指标显示，截至4月的一年里，通胀率为2.1%。 博斯 ...

美联储理事库克：关税可能导致类似滞胀的经济环境。 ...

凤凰网财经讯 6月3日，美股三大指数震荡整理，截至发稿，道指涨0.02%，纳指涨0.48%，标普500指数 涨0.21%。消息称Meta将从Constellation购买核电用于数据中心，核电概念股走高，Constellation Energy 涨超4%、Energy Fuels涨超13%、Uranium Energy涨超10%。中概股方面，网易涨2.22%，京东跌 1.25%，小鹏汽车涨0.83%。 特朗普威胁将钢铝关税上调至50%后 欧盟警告要反制、韩国紧急开会 在当地时间5月30日，特朗普在美国钢铁制造城市匹兹堡的一场集会上，称将把美国进口钢铁和铝的关 税从目前的25%上调至50%。这一表态再次搅动美国目前的双边贸易谈判。欧盟对此表示，特朗普最新 的关税举措破坏了为达成协议所做的持续努力，欧盟并就反制措施发出警告。 美联储主席：政策制定者必须了解美元潜在的不稳定性对美国家庭和企业的影响 全球要闻 白宫称中美领导人本周将举行会谈 外交部回应 在今日外交部例行记者会上，有外媒记者提问称，白宫称，中美领导人本周将举行会谈，发言人有何回 应？对此，发言人林剑表示，我没有可以提供的消息。 当地时间6月2日，美联储 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Short - term index fluctuates, and investors are advised to buy on dips [4] - A - share market shows a situation where the macro environment is moderately loose, the profit situation has improved, but the capital situation is unfavorable, and the overall valuation is at a medium - low level, which is conducive to the long - term performance of the index [10][12][13] Summary by Directory I. Index Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Domestic News**: In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month; non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points month - on - month [4] - **Overseas News**: JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon pointed out the risk of stagflation [4] - **Market Situation**: Last week, the CSI 300 index fluctuated weakly with low trading volume. In the past 5 trading days, the net outflow of main funds was 100.2 billion yuan, and the margin trading funds decreased by 100 million yuan. The domestic economy is weakly stabilizing, and fiscal and monetary policies remain loose. Technically, the CSI 300 index is above the 40 - day moving average, with low short - term trading volume and medium - low long - term valuation [4] - **Viewpoint**: Short - term index fluctuates, and investors are advised to buy on dips [4] II. Index Futures Market and Basis - **Price and Volume**: Index futures fluctuated weakly with low market trading volume [7] - **Basis**: The current index basis rate has declined, and there are no arbitrage opportunities in the index [7] - **Return**: Since 2024, Shanghai Composite 50 large - cap stocks have risen 16.86%, and CSI 1000 small - cap stocks have risen 2.93% [7] - **Contract Data**: The table shows the closing prices, weekly returns, trading volumes, open interests, and trading volume/open interest ratios of IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 contracts last week and this week [6] III. Index Macro and Earnings Growth - **Macro**: In April, the manufacturing PMI (49.4) was below the boom - bust line, the interest rate (1.72) was below 3%, and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8%, with moderate relaxation [10] - **Profit**: In the first quarter of A - shares, the year - on - year corporate net profit changed from a decline to an increase compared with the end of last year, and the net profit growth rate of the CSI 300 slightly declined [10] - **Interest Rate**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds was 1.72%, up 1 BP from last week [10] IV. Index Capital and Valuation Changes - **Capital**: The margin trading balance of A - shares decreased by 100 million yuan in the past 5 trading days; the cumulative net outflow of main funds of A - shares was 100.2 billion yuan in the past 5 trading days [13] - **Valuation**: The overall index valuation is at a medium - low level. The rolling P/E ratio of the CSI 300 is 11.73, with a percentile of 38%; the P/B ratio is 1.29, with a percentile of 9% [12][13] V. Index Fundamental and Technical Analysis - **Fundamentals** - **Macro Environment**: Long - term and medium - term monetary policy is loose, interest rates are low, and the domestic economy is weakly stabilizing (bullish) [17] - **Profit Situation**: A - share corporate profits increased year - on - year in the first quarter (bullish) [17] - **Capital Situation**: Margin trading funds decreased, and main funds had a short - term net outflow (bearish) [17] - **Valuation Situation**: The current valuation is still at a medium - low level, which supports the index in the long - term (bullish) [17] - **Technical Analysis**: The CSI 300 index is near the medium - long - term moving average, with low trading volume, and short - term fluctuations are neutral [16]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller warns of a significant economic slowdown and inflation resurgence in the second half of 2025, primarily driven by tariff policies [1][3] - Waller predicts that if current trade policies persist, the core PCE inflation rate in the U.S. could exceed 3.5% by Q3 2025, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [3] - The unemployment rate may rise from the current 4.1% to over 4.8% as companies are forced to lay off employees to offset rising costs [3] Group 2 - MEXC leveraged trading platform is known for offering up to 125x leverage, supported by a three-tier risk control system, including dynamic margin mechanisms and dual-direction hedging [3][5] - XBIT decentralized exchange enhances trading security with a "zero trust" architecture, executing all orders via smart contracts and allowing for anonymous trading without KYC [5][6] - The combination of MEXC and XBIT provides a unique strategy for investors to hedge against economic downturns, utilizing leverage to capture volatility while ensuring safety through decentralization [6]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for May is 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in market confidence post the China-US Geneva trade talks[13] - The new orders index for manufacturing PMI is 49.8%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points, but still below the expansion threshold[16] - The production index for manufacturing PMI is 50.7%, reflecting a 0.9 percentage point increase, indicating a return to the expansion zone[19] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is a widening supply-demand gap, with the difference between new orders and production PMI at -0.9%, indicating increasing pressure on PPI, which is estimated to decline by 3.4% year-on-year in May[20][22] - Effective demand remains insufficient, constraining economic recovery, with short-term production, investment, and consumption expected to contract[31] - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.3%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, but still indicates expansion, supported by the construction and service sectors[25] Group 3: Policy and Market Outlook - The report suggests a cautious market strategy driven by orders, with corporate profitability likely under pressure due to insufficient effective demand and external uncertainties[31] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in high-dividend stocks and industry leaders benefiting from policy incentives, particularly in cross-border tourism and consumption[33] - The upcoming July meeting of the Central Political Bureau is noted as a critical observation point for potential policy adjustments in response to external pressures[33]