Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline of the US dollar index and the appreciation of the Chinese yuan, highlighting the underlying factors and potential implications for the market. Group 1: US Dollar Index - The US dollar index has dropped approximately 0.3%, with a year-to-date decline of 8.92% [2] - The dollar index opened at 99.0858 and reached a low of 98.6921, indicating a significant downward trend [2] - The euro and British pound have strengthened against the dollar, with the pound reaching its highest level since February 2022 [2] Group 2: Chinese Yuan Performance - The onshore and offshore yuan have both surged, with the offshore yuan breaking the 7.17 mark, reaching a high of 7.1648, the highest since December 2024 [3][4] - The central parity rate of the yuan against the dollar was adjusted up by 86 basis points to 7.1833, marking the highest since April 2 [4] - Over the past month, the dollar to offshore yuan exchange rate has decreased from 7.42 to a low of 7.1616, reflecting a rise of over 2500 basis points [4] Group 3: Factors Influencing Currency Movements - Six key reasons for the yuan's appreciation include improved trade conditions, a weakening dollar, inflow of safe-haven capital, recovery of the Chinese economy, positive policy expectations, and stable exchange rate pricing mechanisms [6] - A report from China International Capital Corporation suggests that if concerns about the US fiscal deficit persist, the yuan may continue to benefit from a weaker dollar, maintaining a moderately strong trend in the short term [7] Group 4: Economic Uncertainty and Market Outlook - The US economy faces uncertainty due to inflation concerns and potential delays in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with officials indicating that a clearer economic picture may take several months to emerge [9][10] - Analysts warn that high tariffs could negatively impact corporate earnings, with estimates suggesting a 3% decline in overall earnings due to a 10% tariff affecting 30%-40% of revenues from overseas for S&P 500 companies [10] - There are concerns that the optimistic earnings forecasts for S&P 500 companies may need to be revised downward, potentially affecting stock prices [10]

21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 随着投资者对贸易战的担忧再度加剧，过去一周，美股三大指数累计跌幅均超过2%，纳指跌2.47%，标 普500指数跌2.61%，道指跌2.47%。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间5月23日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上表示，建议从2025年6月1日起对欧 盟产品直接征收50%的关税，而如果产品在美国制造或生产，则无需缴纳关税。欧盟设置了强大的贸易 壁垒、征收增值税、企业罚款、非货币贸易壁垒、货币操纵、针对美国公司不公平且不合理的诉讼等。 同一天，特朗普还表示，对不在美国生产的手机制造商征收25%的关税，将在6月底前对苹果公司和三 星征收关税。 受关税消息冲击，上周五标普500指数收跌0.67%，报5802.82点，连续四天下跌；纳指跌1%，报 18737.21点；道指跌0.61%，报41603.07点。 不过，目前有限的跌幅显示，市场目前并不完全相信美国会在6月1日对欧盟加征50%的关税，"朝令夕 改"的关税政策仍充满不确定性，市场仍在观望这些威胁落地的可能性。 不确定性高悬 面临关税不确定性，美国经济笼罩在滞胀阴霾下，9月前美联储或不会下调利率。 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，政策制定者 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Commodity prices showed mixed trends during the week from May 19 to May 23, with gold prices experiencing a significant rebound [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, coking coal fell by 1.59%, while crude oil rose by 0.46% [1] - The black metal sector saw iron ore and rebar prices decline by 0.76% and 0.65%, respectively [1] Group 2: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices surged, with London gold increasing by 4.86% to $3,357.2 per ounce, and COMEX gold rising by 5.65% to $3,386.5 per ounce [1] - The World Gold Council reported an average daily trading volume of $441 billion in April, a 48% month-over-month increase, indicating strong structural demand for gold [2] - Geopolitical risks, particularly related to U.S. tariffs proposed by President Trump, have heightened market sensitivity, contributing to gold's price support [2] Group 3: Trade Tensions and Agricultural Commodities - Soybean meal prices saw a slight increase after five weeks of decline, with the main contract rising by 1.83% to 2,952 yuan/ton [4] - Concerns over potential impacts of U.S. tariffs on soybean meal exports to the EU have intensified market apprehension [4] - The market sentiment for soybean meal remains bearish due to supply surplus and export uncertainties, with a notable increase in net short positions [4][5] Group 4: Economic Data and Implications - China's economic indicators for January to April showed a retail sales growth of 4.7% and fixed asset investment growth of 4.0%, indicating stable growth despite external pressures [7] - The chief economist at GF Securities noted that economic data reflects resilience, but investment growth remains a concern [7] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff discussions are expected to require more macroeconomic policy support for sustained growth [9] Group 5: U.S. Treasury Market Developments - The recent auction of 20-year U.S. Treasury bonds faced weak demand, with yields surpassing 5% for the second time, reflecting market concerns over U.S. fiscal health [10] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating, which has contributed to rising yields and declining bond prices [10] - The passage of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" in the U.S. House of Representatives is expected to further exacerbate fiscal challenges, potentially increasing upward pressure on bond yields [11]

基本面： 周五（5月23日）亚盘时段，现货黄金自隔夜下探后重拾上涨，目前交投于3321美元附近。经过本周前三个交易日的上涨后，周四亚市金价曾短暂触及3345 美元的两周高点，随后急转直下，最终收于3294美元附近。这场戏剧性转折背后，隐藏着美元走强、美债动荡和地缘政治三大变局的激烈角力。 周四美元指数强势反弹0.3%，一度回升至100关口上方，收报99.94附近。这种看似温和的涨幅对黄金市场却产生了放大效应。因为之前美元指数已经连续三 个交易日下跌，且创下了近两周新低。黄金市场另一大压力来自美债收益率的剧烈波动。30年期美债收益率触及19个月新高，反映出市场对3.8万亿美元新 增债务的深度忧虑。周三160亿美元20年期美债标售遇冷，更是印证了主权债券需求正在发生结构性变化。值得注意的是，美债市场正在形成诡异的"两极分 化"。短期国债因初请失业金人数降至22.7万人的良好数据获得支撑，而长期国债则因财政赤字恶化遭遇抛售。 多单： 3296附近轻仓多，止损3289，目标3345/3360附近 标普全球的调查数据揭示了更严峻的经济图景。美国5月投入价格指数飙升至63.4，企业收费价格指数跃升至59.3，这两个关键通 ...

美联储的降息前景再添变数。 5月23日，2025年FOMC票委、美国芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表示，短期内降息的门槛"略高"，但在未来10至 16个月内仍有可能降息。另外，美联储理事沃勒表示，如果特朗普政府的关税政策的影响能够稳定下来，预计 将在2025年下半年降息。但他同时警告称，如果特朗普政府恢复更高关税水平，将严重限制美联储利率政策的 操作空间。 据最新消息，美国总统特朗普当地时间23日在社交媒体上表示，建议自6月1日起对欧盟征收50%的关税。受此 影响，欧美股市全线大跌，纳指、标普500指数盘初均跌超1%，欧洲斯托克50指数、法国CAC40指数均大跌超 2%。 针对美联储持续暂停降息的决定，号称"华尔街一哥"的摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙表示，美联储在决定货币政策 之前采取的观望态度是正确的。对冲基金桥水的创始人达利欧也表示，美联储处境艰难，不应当降息。 降息前景存在变数之际，美联储的政策独立性得到了美国最高法院的支持。美国最高法院最新暗示，美联储是 一个"结构独特的准私人实体"，美联储董事会成员将受到特别保护，不会被总统解雇。 "美联储不降息是正确的" 5月22日，摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙警告称，由于美国经 ...

星展集团：新加坡核心通货膨胀将在今年剩余时间保持温和 美国银行：美国消费者信用卡支出在5月初出现放缓 澳新银行预测显示，截至2025年底，印度央行预计将会实施三次降息操作；鉴于目前印度的通胀压力并 不显著，而经济增长却显得疲软，这可能会推动印度央行持续采取宽松的货币政策以刺激经济。倘若 2025年第一季度的GDP数据未能达到预期，印度央行可能不得不下调本财年6.5%的经济增长预期。 美国银行指出，美国消费者信用卡支出从3月同比增长1.1%放缓至4月下半月的同比增长1%。5月前两 周，支出增长持平，没有同比增长；鉴于征收关税和相应的价格上涨导致经济不确定性依然很高，分析 师继续密切关注消费者的反应。 万神殿宏观经济公司认为，美国消费增长的减缓可能引发经济步入"停滞"阶段，尽管衰退或许可以避 免。企业界预期消费者需求将会减弱，并已经开始减少招聘人数。 预计裁员的步伐将加快，新的招聘活动也将减少，特别是在关税导致的价格上涨开始生效之后，消费者 支出从高于平均水平转向低于平均水平。 阿波罗全球管理公司首席经济学家认为，美国消费疲软是影响美国经济前景的主要风险，物价上涨可能 导致美联储在更长时间内维持较高利率；如果美国 ...

Core Insights - The temporary trade agreement between the US and China has led to a rebound in US business activity in May, but the comprehensive tariffs imposed by President Trump have increased prices for businesses and consumers [1] - Despite the improvement in business sentiment, concerns about the negative impacts of Trump's policies persist, keeping sentiment slightly below the average level for 2024 [3] Economic Indicators - The S&P Global composite PMI output index rose from 50.6 in April to 52.1 in May, indicating private sector expansion [1] - The manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rebounded from 50.2 to 52.3, surpassing expectations of 50.1, while the services PMI increased from 50.8 to 52.3, contrary to predictions of stability [1] - New orders received by businesses increased from 51.7 in April to 52.4, primarily driven by manufacturing [3] Inflation and Costs - The prices paid by businesses for inputs surged from 58.5 in April to 63.4, the highest level since November 2022, indicating that companies are passing higher costs onto consumers [3] - The prices charged for goods and services rose from 54.0 to 59.3, marking the highest level since August 2022, suggesting a sharp increase in consumer price inflation [3] - Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation is expected to rise to approximately 3.5%, while GDP growth is projected to slow to below 1% this year [2] Employment and Labor Market - The employment index fell from 50.2 to 49.5, reflecting concerns about future demand, rising costs, and labor shortages [3] - Inventory investments have surged to an 18-year high due to fears of supply shortages and price increases related to tariffs [2]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.33%, S&P 500 futures down 0.18%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.09% [1] - European indices are also experiencing declines, with Germany's DAX down 0.96%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.83%, France's CAC40 down 1.08%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.10% [2] - WTI crude oil is down 1.72% at $60.51 per barrel, while Brent crude is down 1.76% at $63.77 per barrel [2] Economic and Policy Updates - The tax reform bill proposed by President Trump has passed the House of Representatives with a narrow margin (215 to 214 votes), moving to the Senate for further modifications [3] - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns of potential stagflation risks in the US economy, suggesting that the Federal Reserve should remain cautious in its monetary policy decisions [3] - Goldman Sachs executives note that investors are currently more "emotional" compared to during the pandemic or financial crisis, influenced by political biases [4] Company-Specific News - JPMorgan reports a broad recovery in the Chinese economy, with increasing interest from foreign investors seeking diversification [5] - Analog Devices (ADI) raises its Q3 revenue forecast to $2.75 billion, driven by strong demand in the automotive and industrial sectors [6] - Snowflake (SNOW) exceeds Q1 revenue expectations with $1 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, and raises its full-year product revenue guidance [6] - LexinFintech (LX) reports a significant increase in Q1 profits, reaching a three-year high, with revenue of 3.1 billion yuan and a 104.7% year-over-year profit growth [6] - Manchester United (MANU) faces a stock price drop after losing a crucial match, resulting in an estimated loss of $100 million in potential revenue from the Champions League [7] - Google (GOOGL) initiates AI search ad testing, aiming to enhance demand conversion efficiency through AI-integrated advertisements [8]

5月22日，摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙再次警告称，由于美国经济面临地缘政治、财政赤字和物价压力等巨大风险， 他不能排除美国经济陷入滞胀的可能性。 在特朗普政府频繁发布贸易、监管与税收政策变动下，企业普遍推迟并购和投资计划。摩根大通投资银行部门表示，今 年投资银行费用可能同比下降超过15%，大幅高于市场预期。 摩根大通联席CEO特洛伊·罗巴赫此前指出："不确定性促使客户推迟决策，许多原计划中的大型交易被搁置。" 与此同时，摩根大通本周宣布成立"地缘政治中心"，研究俄乌、中东及全球军备升级问题，意在协助客户评估全球风 险。 戴蒙当天在上海举行的摩根大通全球中国峰会上发表了上述观点。他在接受媒体采访时说："我不认为我们处于最佳状 态，美联储在决定货币政策之前采取的观望态度是正确的。" 今年以来，在美国总统特朗普的关税政策背景下，经济前景充满不确定性，美联储也一直采取观望态度、维持利率不 变。不过，美联储官员们认为，通胀和失业率双双上升的风险正在加大。 戴蒙此前曾表示："我认为通胀上升和出现滞胀的可能性，可能略高于其他人的预期。" 本月早些时候，美国与亚洲国家达成90天关税缓解协议，计划继续谈判以达成新贸易安排。尽 ...

Group 1 - The continuous rise in U.S. Treasury yields is causing widespread concern in the market, particularly following a disappointing auction of $16 billion 20-year Treasuries, which has spread pessimism to the U.S. stock and dollar markets [1][3] - The U.S. Treasury is planning to auction $18 billion in 10-year TIPS on Thursday, with additional auctions for various maturities scheduled from May 27 to May 29, indicating significant supply pressure [1][3] - The 30-year Treasury yield has surpassed 5.100%, while the 20-year and 10-year yields have also reached 5.105% and 4.613%, respectively, raising concerns about increased supply due to government fiscal plans [3][4] Group 2 - The highest bid rate for the 20-year Treasury auction reached 5.047%, marking the second instance of a bid rate exceeding 5% and indicating a significant increase in yield compared to the pre-issue rate [4] - The bid-to-cover ratio for the auction dropped from an average of 2.57 to 2.46, reflecting decreased demand in the market [4] - Moody's reported that U.S. public debt is approximately 100% of GDP and is expected to rise to 134% over the next decade, exacerbating inflation concerns and limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates [4]