据智通财经消息，特朗普称马斯克团队审查美财政部数据发现违规，暗示36万亿美债或有"水分"。这场 债务疑云背后，藏着美国当下的多重困境。 美联储主席鲍威尔（资料图） 美联储这边也和特朗普闹得不愉快。特朗普一直要求降息，还多次炮轰美联储主席鲍威尔，威胁要让他 走人。鲍威尔可不吃这一套，直接回怼特朗普没权力解除自己职务，还说美联储不会受政治压力影响， 得先顾着对抗通胀。两人这么一闹，金融市场更慌了，美元汇率跟着下跌。 再看国际上，特朗普的关税政策也没捞到好处。想靠关税逼着其他国家投资美国，可人家都不傻，美国 营商风险高，关税政策又不稳定，谁也不想当冤大头。日本之前想和美国谈投资，最后也没谈拢。其他 国家反而借着这个机会，加强和中国的合作。中欧经贸投资协定、中国 - 东盟合作，还有中日韩自贸 区，都在推进，人民币国际化的步子越迈越大，美元霸权却在一点点被削弱。 特朗普发动的关税战，本想在中美博弈中占得先机，结果却把美国自己拖进了泥沼。多轮互相加征关税 后，美国金融市场率先扛不住。美股接连暴跌，三大股指市值蒸发上万亿美元。即便特朗普宣布暂停新 关税生效三个月，也没能稳住局面，股市依旧跌跌不休。 特朗普（资料图） 美债市 ...

今年4月以来，美国特朗普政府所谓"对等关税"政策搅动世界经贸体系，全球金融市场随之陷入剧烈波动中，美国本土市场首当其冲。 21世纪经济报道记者注意到，4月份，美国金融市场多次出现股债汇"三线齐跌"的现象。Wind数据显示，美股标普500指数当月下跌0.7625%，道琼斯工业指 数当月下跌3.1722%；美债则遭遇"抛长买短"，两年期美债收益率从月初的3.87%一度下降至3.6%，十年期美债收益率从月初的4.17%迅速拉升，最高达到 4.48%。 汇市方面，美元指数4月开盘104.179，收盘99.646，录得4.36%的跌幅，其间最低触达97.910。而在此之前，美元指数已长期维持在105以上的高位，且于今 年1月10日以109.6567创2023年以来的最高值。最新数据显示，截至记者发稿，美元指数徘徊在100.41附近。 中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员肖宇在接受记者采访时指出，4月份美国金融市场股债汇三杀在其历史上屈指可数。"即使是在2008年次贷危 机期间，流动性短缺导致美三大股指大幅回撤，但债市和汇市涨跌互现，也未形成单边一致性下跌"。 显然，在美国掀起的关税风暴催化下，资本市场对美元资产信 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant shift in capital flows from Japan and South Korea away from U.S. dollar assets, indicating a growing distrust in the U.S. financial system and its policies [3][5][12] - A large-scale capital withdrawal from the U.S. market is occurring, with Japanese and Korean investors no longer purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds or stocks, instead redirecting funds to local Asian markets, particularly China and Southeast Asia [5][12] - This capital outflow signifies a systemic strategic exit from reliance on U.S. financial dominance, reflecting a broader challenge to the established global financial order [12][17] Group 2 - The article discusses the potential implications of a "dollar avalanche," with Asian countries holding over $2.5 trillion in dollar assets, which poses a threat to the U.S. Treasury market if these funds are withdrawn [14][17] - The U.S. economic policies, particularly high interest rates maintained by the Federal Reserve, are leading to a loss of confidence among international investors, including domestic ones, in U.S. debt securities [9][17] - The article emphasizes that the current financial landscape is undergoing profound changes, with the U.S. dollar's status as the world's primary currency being increasingly questioned [16][23] Group 3 - In contrast to the U.S. approach, the People's Bank of China has proactively reduced interest rates and increased gold reserves by over 200 tons in six months, positioning itself as a more stable economic player amid global financial uncertainty [19][20] - The article suggests that China's actions are not merely reactive but part of a long-term strategy to enhance the international status of the renminbi and reduce dependence on the dollar [19][20] - The ongoing capital flight from the U.S. and the strategic moves by China indicate a potential shift in global economic leadership, with implications for future monetary policies and international trade dynamics [23][24]

美国街头（资料图） 据北京日报报道，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普日前再次炮轰联邦储备委员会主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔、要求其马上降息 后，美国金融市场应声大跌。特朗普22日改变先前说法，称"无意"解除鲍威尔职务。特朗普22日在白宫媒体会 上反复表示，他"从没有打算"解除鲍威尔的职务。特朗普同时重申眼下是美联储降息的"完美时刻"，他想看到鲍 威尔就降息"更积极主动一些"，但即便鲍威尔没有照做，也不意味着"终结"，只不过当下是降息的"好时机"。 据智通财经报道，美国总统特朗普表示，由马斯克领导的政府效率部在审查美国财政部的数据时发现了违规行 为。他的政府正在检查美国财政部的债务支付是否存在欺诈行为，并暗示美国36万亿美元的债务负担可能并没 有那么高。特朗普接受采访时称，政府官员一直在梳理付款记录，努力查明浪费性支出，而现在他们正把注意 力转向了在全球金融体系中发挥核心作用的债务支付。目前还不清楚特朗普指的问题是有关债务偿付还是其他 政府付款领域。 美债已经出现抛售潮，美债收益率节节攀升，10 年期美债收益率更是创下2002年11月以来最大周涨幅，甚至一 度超过 4.5%。美债收益率飙涨，美国支付的利息必然水涨船高，进而增大还债 ...

Group 1 - The core argument revolves around the conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell regarding interest rate cuts, with Trump insisting that the Fed must lower rates to support small businesses, while the Fed maintains its current stance [1][3] - Trump's push for interest rate cuts is linked to the significant trade deficit the U.S. faces, which amounts to $1.2 trillion annually, and the burden of interest payments on national debt, which reached $1.1 trillion last year [3][5] - The debate highlights the tension between U.S. domestic monetary policy and its implications for global confidence in the dollar, raising concerns about the long-term dominance of the dollar in the global economy [3][6] Group 2 - The article discusses the potential shift in investment strategies away from the U.S. dollar, particularly through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to invest in infrastructure projects across various regions, thereby reducing reliance on the dollar [5][6] - The establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) under the Belt and Road framework signifies a move towards multi-currency operations, enhancing the role of currencies other than the dollar in international finance [5][6] - The current trend suggests a move towards currency diversification rather than a single currency replacing the dollar, indicating the emergence of a multi-polar currency system [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities of the global financial landscape, particularly in light of the U.S. debt reaching $35 trillion and the shifting dynamics of international currency and trade, with China emerging as a key player in establishing a new financial order centered around the renminbi [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Debt and Market Reactions - The U.S. debt crisis has not triggered a global market upheaval as it has in the past, indicating a shift in international financial dynamics [3]. - Historically, the U.S. relied on the "dollar anchor" to manage its growing fiscal deficits, but this reliance is diminishing as countries like China develop alternative trade mechanisms [3][5]. Group 2: China's Strategic Positioning - China is actively building a financial "firewall" to protect its economy from external shocks and is gradually shifting its industrial base to reduce dependency on foreign technology [5][7]. - The rapid advancements in Chinese technology, particularly in sectors like AI and high-end manufacturing, are challenging the traditional dominance of U.S. innovation [7][10]. Group 3: Global Economic Order - The article highlights a growing trend among countries to reassess their reliance on the U.S. dollar, with the expansion of BRICS nations symbolizing a move towards greater economic sovereignty [7][9]. - The U.S. response to these changes has been to strengthen alliances and impose restrictions on Chinese industries, which may inadvertently accelerate the process of de-dollarization [9][10]. Group 4: Future Implications - The ongoing competition between the U.S. and China in technology and finance is reshaping global economic rules, with China positioning itself as a rule-maker rather than a rule-taker [10][12]. - The article suggests that the global financial landscape is undergoing a transformation, with countries reevaluating their strategies in light of shifting power dynamics [12].

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Wells Fargo economists predict that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April will rise by 0.2% after a surprising decline of 0.1% in March, leading to an annual CPI rate of 2.3%, the lowest in four years [1] - Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25-4.50% and emphasizes the need to observe the impact of recently implemented trade policies on economic growth and inflation [3] - UBS Wealth Management highlights that concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve could significantly damage the dollar's safe-haven status, with currencies like the yen and Swiss franc benefiting in the current environment [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Asset Allocation - Analysts at Societe Generale note a trend of investors shifting from U.S. assets to European assets, although this transition may take time to fully materialize [4] - Bank of America indicates that the recent surge in interest in European markets does not necessarily signal a structural shift, as many institutional investors remain cautious about large-scale capital transfers from the U.S. [5] - Citic Securities maintains a preference for gold over copper and oil in the commodities market, citing OPEC+'s unexpected production increase as a factor that may lead to a supply surplus in the oil market [6][5] Group 3: Commodity Price Forecasts - KPMG has revised its Brent crude oil price forecast for the end of the year down from $70 to $60 per barrel, reflecting improved global oil supply conditions [6] - Barclays has postponed its forecast for the next Bank of Japan interest rate hike to January 2026, adjusting its final rate prediction down to 1.00% [7] Group 4: Domestic Market Insights - Galaxy Securities reports a significant increase in global gold ETF inflows in Q1 2025, with net purchases by central banks remaining strong, supporting the long-term bullish outlook for gold prices [8] - The automotive market in China is expected to see a rebound in sales, driven by the release of new models and the end of consumer hesitation following the Shanghai Auto Show [8]

Group 1 - The report discusses the implications of the United States' "reciprocal tariff" policy, which was announced on April 2, 2025, targeting 57 countries including China, with the aim of reducing the trade deficit [2][3][4] - The "reciprocal tariff" is calculated based on the trade deficit amount relative to total imports from a specific country, resulting in significant tariff increases, such as a 34% tariff on imports from China [4][5] - The report argues that the economic rationale behind the U.S. trade deficit and the "reciprocal tariff" policy is flawed, as it overlooks fundamental economic principles regarding domestic supply and demand [5][6][7] Group 2 - The report highlights that the U.S. trade deficit is primarily driven by the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, which has led to increased domestic demand and a long-term trade deficit [9][10][11] - The dollar's unique position allows the U.S. to benefit from "exorbitant privilege," enabling it to create dollars at little cost, thus exacerbating its trade deficit [10][11][12] - The report notes that the U.S. has been able to maintain a large trade deficit without facing a balance of payments crisis, a situation not applicable to other countries [13][14] Group 3 - The report identifies two major drawbacks of dollar dominance: the hollowing out of U.S. manufacturing and increasing income inequality, leading to social unrest [17][21][22] - It suggests that the U.S. should consider abandoning its dollar hegemony and adopting a more equitable distribution of globalization benefits to address these issues [25][27] - The report emphasizes that the "reciprocal tariff" policy is a response to the challenges posed by globalization, aiming to reduce reliance on foreign imports and revive domestic manufacturing [28][29] Group 4 - The report outlines potential strategies for China to counter the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy, emphasizing the need to enhance domestic demand through income distribution reforms and investment stimulation [40][41] - It argues that China's economic resilience is greater than that of the U.S., as it can create domestic demand to offset external shocks [41][42] - The report concludes that if China can effectively manage its internal economic policies, it can emerge stronger from the ongoing trade tensions and contribute positively to global economic stability [42]

智通财经APP获悉，Eurizon SLJ Capital首席经济学家斯蒂芬·任(Stephen Jen)最新警告，随着亚洲国家加速调整外汇储备结构，美元可能面临高达2.5万亿美元 的"雪崩式"抛售压力。这家资管机构在周三发布的报告中指出，亚洲出口商与投资者长期积累的巨额美元头寸，正因美国贸易政策转向与汇率波动风险加剧 而面临瓦解风险。 报告分析称，过去数十年间，亚洲经济体凭借对美贸易顺差积累了规模庞大的美元资产。以中国大陆、中国台湾、马来西亚、越南为代表的出口导向型经济 体，其央行及机构投资者持有的美元储备可能达到2.5万亿美元量级。Jen团队强调："这些未对冲美元波动的'裸多头寸'犹如悬在美元头上的达摩克利斯之 剑，一旦集中撤离将引发全球货币市场剧烈震荡。" 特朗普政府推动的贸易保护主义政策正成为催化剂。报告指出，亚洲政策制定者可能通过两种路径应对：一是将海外美元资产汇回本土以支撑本币升值，作 为贸易谈判筹码;二是加速多元化外汇储备配置，降低对美元的依赖。值得注意的是，仅中国就可能因美联储降息周期启动，推动约1万亿美元计价的海外资 产回流国内——这一数字与Jen去年提出的"美元微笑"理论预测一致。 市场已 ...

Core Viewpoint - The increasing debt pressure in the United States is undermining the foundation of the dollar's credibility, with Trump's policies posing a significant threat to the "petrodollar system," leading to the emergence of the new Triffin dilemma. In contrast, China's economy is solidifying its foundation for high-quality development and the transition between old and new growth drivers [1]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - The long-term positive fundamentals of the Chinese economy remain unchanged, supported by a massive market of 1.4 billion people and the world's largest and most comprehensive industrial production system [1]. - China's fiscal policy has ample room compared to Western countries, with sufficient policy reserves available [1]. Group 2: Policy Measures - The moderately loose monetary policy in China ensures ample liquidity in the market [1]. - The effectiveness of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, such as "two new" and "two重," is significant, contributing to the stabilization of the real estate market [1]. Group 3: Market Stability - The stabilization of the real estate market lays a solid foundation for the stability and prosperity of the capital market [1].