Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rates are still suppressed by the fundamentals in the short term. With the demand not significantly improved, over - capacity remains a huge pressure on the supply side in the future, limiting the recovery space of shipping prosperity. The freight and industry profitability are expected to be under pressure, and the traditional peak season this year may show the characteristic of "not prosperous in the peak season", with freight rates expected to fluctuate weakly [6][7][41] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This week, most of the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined. The main contract EC2510 closed down 4.76%, and the far - month contracts fell between 4% and 7%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 2180.17, down 55.31 points from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%. The current SCFI European Line recorded 1668 last Friday, further dropping 152, with a weekly decline of 8.35%. The continuous decline of spot indicators drove down the futures prices. The trading volume and open interest of the EC2510 contract declined this week [6][10][14] 2. News Review and Analysis - The EU Commission proposed two legislative proposals to implement the EU - US joint statement on tariffs. The EU will cancel some tariffs on US industrial products, give preferential market access to some seafood and non - sensitive agricultural products, and extend the duty - free treatment for lobsters. The US will reduce the tariffs on EU automobiles and parts from 27.5% to 15% and implement zero or near - zero tariffs on some products from September 1st, which is bullish for the market [17] - US President Trump said that trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and South Korea were completed and that he would impose high tariffs on imported furniture, which is neutral to bearish [17] - New York Fed President Williams said it was appropriate to cut interest rates at the right time, which is bullish [17] - The Trump administration outlined a plan to impose 50% tariffs on Indian products, which is bearish [17] 3. Weekly Market Data - This week, the basis and spread of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts converged. The export container freight rate index declined. The container shipping capacity decreased in the short term. The BDI and BPI rebounded due to geopolitical factors. The charter price of Panamax ships rebounded rapidly, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar fluctuated mainly [24][26][30] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - This week, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) mostly declined. The continuous decline of spot indicators drove down the futures prices. The "price war" made the fundamentals under continuous pressure. The US employment data was far below expectations, and the interest - rate cut expectation soared. The internal demand in the eurozone was weak. Overall, freight rates are expected to fluctuate weakly. It is necessary to continuously monitor factors such as the actual follow - up increase of the shipping companies' opening prices in December, the frequency of Houthi attacks, and trade war - related information [40][41]

Core Viewpoint - Rising bond yields exert significant political pressure, influencing leaders and their policies, as evidenced by recent events in the UK and the U.S. [1] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has increased from 3.8% to 4.2% over the past year, indicating a growing concern among investors regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [2] - The gap between the 2-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields has reached its widest level since January 2022, signaling investor anxiety about long-term inflation threats and the erosion of Federal Reserve independence [4] - Current bond yields remain below the highs reached after Trump's "liberation day" tariffs, suggesting a more orderly increase despite rising long-term yields [5] Group 2: Political Implications - Trump's attempts to undermine the Federal Reserve's independence, including threats to dismiss board members, raise concerns about potential political capture of the institution [2][3] - If Trump succeeds in weakening the Federal Reserve's independence, it could lead to higher expected inflation, impacting various loan rates and increasing government costs [3] - The political risks associated with rising long-term borrowing costs could adversely affect Trump's voter base, particularly as mortgage rates are linked to long-term bonds [4] Group 3: Market Reactions and Sentiment - Investors are increasingly worried about the politicalization of the Federal Reserve, with concerns that cheap funding could fuel future inflation [3] - The market's current calmness may be attributed to the recent increase in government revenue from tariffs, which has alleviated fears regarding the fiscal situation [5][6] - The outcome of the legal case involving Federal Reserve board member Cook could significantly impact market stability and the future of the Federal Reserve's independence [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing pressure on the US economy due to expanding trade and budget deficits, which are leading to a steeper yield curve and weakening credit conditions [1][4]. Economic Indicators - The US GDP is projected to contract by 0.3% in Q1 2025, driven by increased imports and reduced government spending, although this is partially offset by rising consumer spending and exports [1][2]. - In the first quarter of 2025, imports surged by 41.3% before tariffs were fully implemented, with March imports reaching $346 billion and the trade deficit widening to $163 billion [1][3]. Employment and Consumer Confidence - The consumer confidence index fell by 9% from March to April 2025, yet job creation exceeded expectations and the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [2]. - Despite the resilience of the job market, the implementation of tariffs is expected to negatively impact employment conditions [2]. Trade Deficit Dynamics - The overall trade deficit has increased since the implementation of tariffs, despite a reduction in the trade deficit with China during Trump's first term [2][4]. - Countries like Vietnam and Thailand have benefited from supply chain shifts, increasing their trade surplus with the US [2]. Credit and Fiscal Concerns - Moody's downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to rising fiscal deficits and increasing federal debt, with the five-year credit default swap (CDS) spread widening by 20 basis points [3][4]. - The yield curve has steepened, with the 30-year Treasury yield reaching a 19-month high amid concerns over fiscal sustainability and trade tensions [3][5]. Future Projections - The tax reform bill passed by the House is expected to add $3.1 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, potentially pushing the budget deficit close to 7% of GDP in the coming years [5]. - The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to increase by 8% to 10% over the four-year term, with long-term bond yields expected to rise significantly, potentially exceeding 6% in the coming years [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming September meeting, citing potential economic weakness and manageable inflation as key factors influencing this decision [3][5]. Group 1: Rate Cut Support - Waller advocates for an immediate rate cut, suggesting that the FOMC should act quickly given the current economic indicators [3][6]. - He believes that if the upcoming non-farm payroll report shows significant economic weakness while inflation remains controlled, his stance on the necessity of a rate cut may change [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The July non-farm payroll report showed only a 73,000 increase in jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000, raising concerns about the labor market [5]. - The downward revision of 258,000 jobs in the previous two months has heightened worries regarding employment [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Waller's comments and the recent employment data have opened the door for a potential rate cut in September, despite ongoing inflation concerns [5]. - The consensus among Fed officials appears to be fracturing, particularly regarding the impact of tariffs on the economy and inflation [6]. Group 4: Future Expectations - Waller anticipates further rate cuts in the next three to six months, contingent on forthcoming economic data [4]. - He emphasizes that the risks in the labor market are accumulating, which necessitates a reassessment of monetary policy [5].

白宫官员表示，美国对价值低于800美元的包裹免征关税的政策将于周五永久终止。在为期6个月的过渡期内，邮政承运方可选择按每件包裹支付80至200美元的固定关税，具体金额取决于商品原产国。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ulta Beauty reported better-than-expected Q2 earnings and raised its full-year guidance, despite warnings of potential consumer spending reductions [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q2 net profit increased from $252.6 million ($5.30 per share) to $260.9 million ($5.78 per share) [1]. - Revenue grew by 7.7% year-over-year to $2.8 billion, exceeding analyst expectations [1]. - Same-store sales are projected to grow by 2.5% to 3.5% for the year, up from a previous forecast of no more than 1.5% [1]. - The company expects FY2025 sales between $12 billion and $12.1 billion, and earnings per share between $23.85 and $24.30, both higher than previous estimates [1]. Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - Despite economic uncertainties, consumers continue to spend on beauty products, with Ulta experiencing significant growth in this category [2]. - Ulta's average transaction value increased by 2.9%, and the number of transactions grew by 3.7% compared to the previous year [3]. - The company faces intensified competition from brands like Sephora, Walmart, and Kohl's, which are expanding their beauty offerings [2]. Strategic Initiatives - Ulta is exploring new growth channels, including the introduction of health-related products in approximately 370 stores [5]. - The company has acquired UK beauty retailer Space NK, allowing entry into a new international market [6]. - A third-party marketplace platform is set to launch in Q3, aimed at expanding product offerings without increasing inventory [7]. Leadership and Management - The company is currently searching for a permanent CFO after the departure of the previous CFO, with Chris Lialios serving as the interim CFO [7]. - Ulta's management emphasizes a cautious approach due to consumer spending uncertainties [2].

来源：滚动播报 美联储理事沃勒：关税是一种税，且不会引发通胀。 ...

Group 1 - The EU is rapidly legislating to eliminate all tariffs on US industrial goods in exchange for the US reducing tariffs on EU automobiles [1][3] - The EU Commission acknowledges that the trade agreement favors the US but provides necessary stability and predictability for businesses [1][3] - EU Commission President von der Leyen defends the agreement as a thoughtful choice to avoid escalation and confrontation with the US [1][3] Group 2 - The EU is under pressure to complete legislation by the end of the month to meet US demands, which could significantly impact the EU automotive industry [3][4] - A survey by the German Chamber of Commerce indicates that 55% of industrial companies believe the trade agreement imposes a heavy burden on the European economy [4] - The German Mechanical Engineering Industry Association warns that 30% of machinery exported to the US faces 50% tariffs, urging the EU to negotiate for tariff exemptions [4] Group 3 - President Trump threatens high tariffs on countries that impose digital taxes targeting US tech companies, indicating potential trade tensions with the EU [5][6] - French President Macron suggests the EU should consider retaliatory measures against the US tech industry due to significant trade imbalances [5][6] - Despite calls for a stronger stance, EU member states show reluctance to engage in a full-scale trade war, limiting the EU's response options [6]

Core Viewpoint - Bath & Body Works reported second-quarter profits that fell short of Wall Street expectations, facing challenges from uncertain consumer discretionary spending and rising costs [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's adjusted earnings per share for the quarter were 37 cents, below the analyst average expectation of 38 cents [3] - Quarterly net sales amounted to $1.55 billion, in line with market expectations [3] - General management and store operating expenses reached $483 million, a 9% increase compared to the same period last year [3] Group 2: Market Challenges - The company is experiencing significant operational pressure due to inflation and the negative impact of trade policies from the Trump administration, leading consumers to cut back on spending [2] - Although consumer spending increased in June and July, growth in the third quarter is expected to be constrained by a weak labor market and rising commodity prices [2] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - To position its products as "affordable luxuries" and "ideal gifts," Bath & Body Works has intensified marketing and promotional efforts, including launching a Disney villain-themed product line aimed at Halloween sales [2] - The company has narrowed its full-year adjusted earnings per share guidance to a range of $3.35 to $3.60, previously $3.25 to $3.60, considering current tariff levels [3] Group 4: Supply Chain Insights - Unlike many peers, Bath & Body Works primarily utilizes local sourcing for most of its products, which helps mitigate tariff impacts [3] - However, approximately 10% of the company's supply chain still relies on China, with Canada and Mexico accounting for about 7% combined, with nearly equal shares [3]

Report Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core View - Overnight, the US dollar fluctuated sharply, and precious metals oscillated at high levels. Trump's dismissal of Fed officials this week intensified concerns about the Fed's independence and impacted the US dollar's credit. International gold and silver are in an oscillating trend, continuing to test the upper key resistance. The medium - term strategy maintains a long - buying approach on pullbacks. Attention should be paid to the revised value of the US Q2 GDP and weekly initial jobless claims data today [1] Other Summaries Fed - related - Biesent called for an internal review of the Fed and said it would surely know in the fall who Trump would choose as the Fed chair. Williams said the policy remains moderately tight, inflation is gradually falling, and every meeting is absolutely "real - time" [1] Tariff - related - The White House trade advisor said that if India stops buying Russian oil, it can get a 25% tariff discount. India hopes that the US will reconsider the decision to impose a 25% tariff on it. Biesent said many things India does are "performative." The EU plans to accelerate the legislative process before this weekend to fully cancel tariffs on US industrial products to meet Trump's requirements. Japanese Economic Revitalization Minister Akazawa Ryosei visited the US again, urging the US to implement the auto tariff reduction agreement [2]