Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year" plan emphasizes high-quality economic and social development, requiring a comprehensive and systematic approach to ensure its authority, foresight, and operability [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Principles and Guidelines - The planning process must focus on high-quality development, aiming for more efficient, equitable, sustainable, and secure growth [2]. - A holistic view is essential, balancing domestic and international contexts while recognizing both advantages and challenges [2]. - The plan should prioritize people's livelihoods, addressing urgent issues in employment, education, healthcare, housing, and elderly care [2]. Group 2: Key Strategic Tasks and Development Directions - Emphasis on technological innovation and building a modern industrial system, with a focus on self-reliance in technology and addressing critical areas like chips and industrial software [3]. - The strategy includes expanding domestic demand and stimulating consumption while encouraging private investment and removing industry barriers [3]. - The plan aims for comprehensive reforms and high-level opening-up, enhancing the market economy and aligning with international trade standards [3]. - A commitment to green transformation and safety, integrating environmental sustainability with national security across all planning processes [3]. Group 3: Implementation Measures and Pathways - Innovative planning approaches are necessary, focusing on practical development platforms and major projects in high-growth sectors like artificial intelligence and commercial aerospace [4]. - Engaging the public in the planning process is crucial, ensuring that the voices of the people are heard and considered [4]. - Coordination among various regions and departments is vital to create a unified planning system that avoids competition and promotes complementary functions [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is prioritizing the expansion of domestic demand and strengthening the domestic circulation to stabilize economic growth, with consumer spending playing a crucial role in this strategy [1]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumer Contribution - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with final consumption expenditure contributing 53.5% to economic growth, an increase of 9 percentage points compared to the previous year [1]. - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply as key tasks for economic work in the coming year [1]. Group 2: Consumer Demand and Retail Performance - From January to November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.0% year-on-year, surpassing the 3.5% growth rate of 2024 [2]. - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has been expanded to cover various sectors, leading to over 2.5 trillion yuan in sales and benefiting more than 360 million people [2]. Group 3: New Consumption Trends - New service consumption, including travel, culture, and health, has become a consumption hotspot, with significant increases in domestic travel during holidays [3]. - The online retail of physical goods grew by 5.7% year-on-year, accounting for 25.9% of total retail sales, indicating a shift towards digital consumption [3]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Price Index - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November 2025, reflecting improved product quality and innovation in supply [4]. - The number of new consumer goods registered in 2024 exceeded 21.63 million, marking a significant increase in supply innovation [4]. Group 5: Foreign Consumption and Policy Changes - The number of inbound foreign visitors increased by 27.8% from January to August 2025, driven by optimized entry policies and payment facilitation [5]. - The number of stores offering tax refunds for outbound tourists tripled compared to the end of 2024, indicating a growing trend in inbound consumption [5]. Group 6: Structural Challenges in Consumption - Despite the overall growth in consumption, the increase in consumer spending is lagging behind income growth, with real disposable income rising by 5.2% while consumption expenditure grew by only 4.7% [6]. - Service consumption growth has slowed, with a 4.1% increase in per capita service spending, which is below the overall consumption growth rate [7]. Group 7: Policy Recommendations for Consumption Growth - To address the challenges, policies should focus on enhancing employment, increasing income, and stabilizing expectations to boost consumer capacity [9]. - The government should optimize the "old-for-new" policy and support service consumption, particularly in sectors like tourism and elderly care [10]. - Strengthening innovation in consumption and improving the supply of quality goods and services is essential for sustainable growth [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of boosting tourism consumption as a key strategy for economic recovery and growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, highlighting new trends in tourism consumption that are becoming more popular and diverse [1]. Group 1: Trends in Tourism Consumption - Tourism consumption is becoming more popular among the general public, with increased participation from diverse age groups, including youth and seniors, contributing significantly to the growth of domestic tourism [2]. - The way people consume tourism is becoming more integrated into daily life, facilitated by advancements in transportation and technology, allowing for spontaneous travel experiences [2]. - The spaces where tourism consumption occurs are diversifying, moving beyond traditional attractions to include various engaging scenarios that resonate with consumers' emotions and interests [3]. - The content of tourism experiences is becoming more varied, with a shift towards deeper, more meaningful experiences that reflect cultural and personal growth, such as green tourism and cultural tourism [3]. Group 2: Economic Impact and Data - In the first three quarters of the year, domestic residents made 4.998 billion trips, spending 4.85 trillion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 18% and 11.5% respectively, indicating tourism consumption's role as a critical driver for economic recovery [4]. - The retail sales of services in China grew by 5.4% year-on-year, with cultural and recreational services seeing growth rates exceeding 10%, further underscoring the significance of tourism consumption in the broader economy [4]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - The industry should focus on guiding and analyzing tourism consumption expectations to enhance consumer confidence and meet the demand for high-quality tourism products and services [5]. - There is a need for in-depth research on tourism consumption demand, utilizing technology and data analysis to understand the needs of various consumer groups, including seniors and families [6]. - Expanding and improving the quality of tourism supply is essential, requiring innovation in new products and services while also enhancing existing offerings to attract consumers [6]. - Optimizing the tourism consumption environment is crucial, necessitating a balance between market forces and government support to protect consumer rights and enhance the overall tourism experience [7].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining economic stability and growth in Jiangsu Province, highlighting the need for strategic planning and implementation of policies to ensure a successful start to the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][2][3]. Economic Performance and Outlook - Jiangsu's economy has shown resilience and vitality, successfully navigating various challenges over the past five years, with significant achievements in high-quality development [1][2]. - The meeting acknowledged the complex global and domestic economic landscape but affirmed the long-term positive trends supporting China's economy, particularly in Jiangsu [2][3]. Strategic Focus for 14th Five-Year Plan - The meeting outlined the necessity to adhere to the guiding principles of Xi Jinping's thought, emphasizing the importance of expanding domestic demand, optimizing supply, and enhancing both qualitative and quantitative economic growth [2][3]. - Key strategies include deepening reform and opening up, stabilizing employment and market expectations, and ensuring social harmony [2][3][4]. Policy Implementation - The meeting stressed the need for a coordinated approach to policy support and innovation, focusing on enhancing the foundation of the real economy and fostering self-innovation capabilities [3][4]. - Specific actions include boosting consumer demand, promoting major projects, and enhancing the integration of technology and industry [4][5]. Regional Development and Coordination - Emphasis was placed on promoting coordinated development across regions, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta and other key areas, to enhance urban-rural integration and overall economic synergy [4][5]. - The meeting highlighted the importance of expanding high-level foreign trade and investment, aiming for quality improvements in these sectors [5][6]. Social Welfare and Stability - The meeting underscored the commitment to improving people's livelihoods, ensuring employment stability for key groups, and enhancing public resource allocation [5][6]. - It called for a focus on education, healthcare, and social services to promote common prosperity and social stability [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is prioritizing the expansion of domestic demand and strengthening the domestic circulation to stabilize economic growth, with consumer spending playing a crucial role in this strategy [1]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumer Contribution - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with final consumption expenditure contributing 53.5% to economic growth, an increase of 9 percentage points compared to the previous year [1]. - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply as key tasks for economic work in the coming year [1]. Group 2: Consumer Demand and Retail Performance - From January to November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.0% year-on-year, surpassing the 3.5% growth rate of 2024 [2]. - The service retail sector saw a year-on-year growth of 5.4%, indicating a stable growth trend [2]. - The "old-for-new" policy for consumer goods has been expanded, leading to over 2.5 trillion yuan in sales and benefiting more than 360 million people [2]. Group 3: New Consumption Trends - New types of service consumption, such as travel, culture, entertainment, and health, have become popular, with significant increases in domestic travel during holidays [3]. - The online retail of physical goods grew by 5.7% year-on-year, accounting for 25.9% of total retail sales, indicating a shift towards e-commerce [3]. - The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles increased by 33.3%, with a penetration rate of 50.2% in the first half of 2025 [3]. Group 4: Supply-Side Innovations and CPI Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November 2025, reflecting improvements in product and service quality due to innovation [4]. - The number of new consumer goods registered in 2024 exceeded 21.63 million, marking a significant increase in supply-side innovation [4]. Group 5: Challenges in Consumer Market - Despite the potential and resilience of the consumer market, there are structural contradictions, such as consumer spending growth lagging behind income growth [6]. - The growth rate of service consumption spending has slowed, which may hinder the upgrading of consumption structure [7]. - The consumer market is increasingly segmented, with distinct consumption patterns emerging among different income groups [7]. Group 6: Policy Recommendations for Consumption Growth - To boost consumption, policies should focus on enhancing employment, increasing income, and stabilizing expectations [9]. - The "old-for-new" policy should be optimized to stimulate service consumption, particularly in sectors like tourism and elderly care [10]. - A supportive mechanism combining policy support, digital empowerment, and industrial fund support should be established to foster innovation in consumption [11].

挑大梁、勇担当、开新局，我们要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，深入贯彻"五个必须"重大要求，坚决落 实"两个更好统筹"重大部署，牢牢把握"稳中求进、提质增效"政策取向，推动经济实现质的有效提升和 量的合理增长。紧密结合省情实际、把握发展阶段性特征，充分挖掘经济大省、科教大省、人口大省、 消费大省的潜能，进一步巩固实体经济根基，全面增强自主创新能力和内生增长动力。牢牢把握扩大内 需这个战略基点，坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放，推动高质量发展和高水平安全良性互动。坚持稳中求 进、提质增效，放大存量政策和增量政策集成效应，放大改革举措与宏观政策的协同效应，因势利导优 化经济结构和产业布局，推动经济运行和市场预期持续向好。 抓住关键、纲举目张。习近平总书记在中央经济工作会议上强调了"八个坚持"的重点任务，对做好2026 年经济工作进行了系统部署。结合我省推动高质量发展的实际，明年要抓住关键，纲举目张地做好深入 挖掘内需潜力、因地制宜发展新质生产力、坚定不移深化改革、持续扩大高水平对外开放、促进城乡区 域协调发展、加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型、用心用情保障和改善民生、更好统筹发展和安全等八项 工作，一步一个脚印把各项部署落到实处。 ...

近期，大消费板块企稳反弹迹象明显。上周五(12月19日)，万得大消费指数上涨1.33%，大幅跑赢上证 指数，本周一该指数继续走高，收盘上涨0.13%。 从细分板块来看，乳业、零售等板块均大幅上涨，12月以来万得零售指数累计上涨7.44%，万得乳业指 数累计上涨5.35%。 从股票型ETF资金流向来看，12月以来，涵盖消费、可选消费、旅游、食品饮料、主要消费等主题的20 余只ETF资金净流入超过22亿元，富国中证旅游主题ETF、汇添富中证主要消费ETF及嘉实中证主要消 费ETF净流入金额均超过1.5亿元，其中富国中证旅游主题ETF资金净流入近14亿元。 以旅游为主题的股票型ETF，本月以来均获得资金净流入。除上述富国中证旅游主题ETF外，华夏中证 旅游主题ETF资金净流入0.16亿元。 当前，扩大内需、提振消费已成为推动经济增长的关键着力点。此前召开的中央经济工作会议将"坚持 内需主导，建设强大国内市场"排在明年经济工作首位。东莞证券指出，在宏观环境波动的背景下，扩 大内需、提振消费已然成为经济增长的重要抓手。 从基本面来看，我国消费市场长期增长韧性凸显。"十四五"时期，我国社会消费品零售总额从2020年的 3 ...

Macroeconomic Dynamics - The market anticipates a 58 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026 following the release of U.S. employment data, with a 31% probability of a rate cut in January [1] - Key future focus areas include the nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair, prospects for U.S. fiscal stimulus, and actual measures to expand domestic demand [1] Satellite Internet - Sellers indicate that key launch projects are ready and awaiting coordination for new timelines [1] - The IPO of Electronic Science and Technology Blue Sky has been approved, positioning it as a core supplier for aerospace power [1] - Recent catalysts include the Hainan Wenchang Conference and multiple commercial rocket maiden flights [1] - Related ETF: Satellite Industry ETF (on-market: 159218) [1] Consumer Sector - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the need to enhance consumer willingness and implement special actions to boost consumption [1] - The Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission has identified expanding domestic demand as the top priority for next year [1] - Three departments have issued documents encouraging the use of digital RMB smart contract red envelopes to promote consumption [1] - Related ETFs: Consumer ETF (on-market: 510150, off-market link: 217017), Food and Beverage ETF (on-market: 159843) [1] Robotics - Sellers report that prototype demonstrations will occur after Christmas, with new suppliers and sales strategies to be introduced in March, while dexterous hands are undergoing rapid iteration [1] - Related ETFs: Robotics Index ETF (on-market: 560770, off-market link: 020482) [1] Artificial Intelligence - NVIDIA has released the Nemotron 3 family of open-source models [1] - Ant Group's AI health application "Antifortune" has reached third place on the Apple app rankings [1] - The Volcano Engine Conference on the 18th will focus on the Doubao large model, edge AI, and Agent ecosystem [1] - Reports suggest that Google's Asian supply chain visits are intensifying, with an expected procurement of 4 million TPUs next year [1] - Related ETFs: Cloud Computing ETF (on-market: 159890, off-market link: 021716), Software Leaders ETF (on-market: 159899, off-market link: 018385) [1] Autonomous Driving - Hongmeng Zhixing and Xpeng have been approved to begin internal testing of L3 autonomous driving [1] - Horizon Robotics has set a target of 5.5 million chip shipments for 2026, a 30% increase from previous expectations [1] - Related ETFs: Consumer Electronics 50 ETF (on-market: 159779, off-market link: 016007) [1] Market Observation - On December 16, trading volume was 1.7242 trillion, a decrease of 49.3 billion [2] - The index retraced to 3816 points, with strong performance in sectors such as retail, beauty care, and social services [2] - The satellite sector experienced fluctuations but rebounded, while intelligent driving and AI liquid cooling showed performance in the adjustment phase [2] - The market is expected to follow a "first suppress then rise" pattern, with strong resilience in the consumer sector and opportunities for layout in technology and satellite themes during adjustments [2]

一、价格回顾 国内方面，新棉加工、销售加速推进，纺企刚需补库为主，最新发布的11月纺服类内销数据保持增长， 同时本周多部门明确未来将更大力度提振消费，改善消费预期、提振市场信心，推动国内棉价延续涨 势，郑棉最高涨至14100元/吨，达到2025年8月底以来最高水平。本周郑州棉花期货主力合约结算均价 13957元/吨，较前周上涨163元/吨，涨幅1.2%；代表内地标准级皮棉市场价格的国家棉花价格B指数均 价15081元/吨，较前周上涨121元/吨，涨幅0.8%。 （来源：锦桥纺织网） 来源：锦桥纺织网 【概要】本周，国内促消费政策继续发力，最新公布的11月纺服内销数据呈稳增态势，提振市场消费信 心，国内棉价延续涨势；受北半球棉花集中供应、美棉出口销售持续疲软等因素影响，外棉价格重心继 续下移，内外棉价差扩大至2021年10月以来最高水平。 宏观方面，美国通胀数据低于预期，增加美联储未来降息概率。美国11月消费者物价同比上涨2.7%， 涨幅低于预期的3.1%，受此影响，美股等金融市场普遍上涨。日本央行加息政策落地，市场反应相对 平淡。12月19日日本央行将政策利率上调25个基点至0.75%，达到30年来新高，这是 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the impact of currency exchange rates, stock market performance, and domestic demand expansion policies on the Chinese economy and its sectors, particularly focusing on consumption and service industries [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Currency and Stock Market Dynamics** - Despite a stronger RMB, the stock market has underperformed, which is an unusual occurrence historically. This divergence is attributed to concerns over domestic economic growth and corporate profitability, particularly in the consumption sector [2][5]. - The recent U.S. non-farm employment data and CPI figures have influenced market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, maintaining a dovish outlook [1][2]. 2. **Domestic Demand Expansion Policies** - The focus on expanding domestic demand is critical, with an emphasis on improving income expectations and total income rather than merely reducing savings rates. Specific measures include fiscal stimulus, monetary easing, and industry support [3][4][15]. - The government aims to enhance consumer confidence and increase disposable income, which is essential for reviving the consumption sector [3][15]. 3. **Service Consumption Trends** - Service consumption is expected to gain significant traction, with government policies increasingly supporting this sector. The rising concentration and chain rate in service industries, such as hotels and duty-free shops, indicate a positive trend [23][24]. - The records highlight that service consumption currently accounts for 47% of per capita spending in China, suggesting substantial room for growth compared to developed countries [23]. 4. **Investment Opportunities** - Key sectors to watch include hotels, duty-free, and the restaurant industry, with expectations of stabilization and potential recovery in these areas. High-quality leading companies are likely to expand their market share [24][26][27]. - The records suggest that while the restaurant sector faces challenges, segments like coffee and tea are experiencing rapid growth, presenting investment opportunities [26][28]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Consumer Behavior and Economic Confidence** - The high savings rate among Chinese consumers indicates a lower propensity to consume, which is a concern for economic growth. The records suggest that merely lowering savings rates may not effectively boost consumption [18][19][21]. - The Engel coefficient has risen, indicating that essential goods are taking a larger share of total consumption, reflecting a lack of consumer confidence in making discretionary purchases [20][21]. 2. **Long-term Economic Outlook** - The U.S. credit cycle is expected to begin recovery by 2026, which may influence the RMB's strength and overall market conditions. However, the records caution against assuming a significant long-term decline in the dollar [6][8]. 3. **Policy Implementation and Market Reactions** - The effectiveness of policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand will depend on their implementation and the broader international economic environment. The records emphasize the need for dynamic adjustments to maximize policy impact [3][4][15]. 4. **Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite** - Short-term market movements may be influenced by breaking key resistance levels, which could enhance risk appetite among investors. However, the sustainability of such trends is contingent upon underlying economic fundamentals [8][9]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and arguments presented in the conference call records, focusing on the interplay between currency dynamics, domestic policies, and sectoral performance in the Chinese economy.