黄金：如何定价，走向何方？20250912 摘要 2024 年，MEX 黄金和伦敦现货黄金年内累计涨幅分别达到 29.7%和 31.5%，9 月初接近 40%，主要受美联储降息预期、特朗普动摇美联储 独立性以及欧美债务可持续性担忧推动。 黄金价格受商品、货币、金融三重属性影响，与通胀正相关，与美元和 美债实际利率负相关。但自 2022 年以来，实际利率对金价的解释力减 弱，可能因实际利率误判或央行购金行为所致。 2022 年至 2024 年间，全球央行平均每年购金量达 1,060 吨，占全球 需求 23%，结构性需求推升金价，使得传统的实际利率-黄金定价框架 失效，应回归供需基础逻辑分析。 历史数据显示，金价显著涨势通常源于战争或危机，持续 10-12 年。当 前始于 2018-2019 年的涨势已持续六七年，若宏观环境继续支持避险 情绪及央行购金，金价或将保持强势。 全球央行购金原因包括美元信任度下降（冻结俄罗斯资产）、美国债务 问题（财政赤字和债务规模上升）、经济内生动能弱化以及新兴经济体 去发达经济体货币化趋势。 Q&A 如何理解 2025 年黄金价格的历史新高？ 2025 年初以来，金价快速攀升并屡创 ...

Core Insights - The debt crisis is a systemic challenge for the global economy, significantly impacting financial stability, geopolitical dynamics, and market trends [1][17] - The rapid increase in U.S. federal debt, projected to reach $37.3 trillion by September 2025, poses risks to both domestic and international economic conditions [1][17] - Understanding the causes, manifestations, and potential consequences of the debt crisis is crucial for investors, economists, and policymakers [1] Causes of the Debt Crisis - The primary driver of the rapid growth in U.S. federal debt is the persistent budget deficit, with a projected deficit of $1.9 trillion for the fiscal year 2025, equivalent to 6% of GDP [2] - Tax cuts and increased spending, particularly from the Trump administration, have significantly reduced federal revenue, leading to an estimated $3.4 trillion increase in deficits from 2025 to 2034 [2] - Mandatory spending, including Social Security and Medicare, along with rising interest payments, are major contributors to the expanding deficit [2] Interest Costs and Market Dynamics - High interest costs exacerbate the debt issue, with projected interest payments reaching $952 billion in 2025, accounting for 18.4% of federal revenue [3] - The current high-interest environment, with a 10-year Treasury yield around 4.1%, has led to a significant increase in interest costs compared to previous years [3] - Rising bond yields across major economies signal a potential reset of the monetary system, affecting the value of the dollar and inflation pressures [4] Interconnectedness of Debt and Markets - The bond market, valued at over $50 trillion, is highly interconnected with equity and precious metals markets, with rising debt leading to increased borrowing costs [5] - The S&P 500 index has seen significant growth, but its valuation relative to GDP indicates potential bubble risks [5] - Gold has emerged as a hedge against currency devaluation, with prices rising from $1,770 per ounce in 2020 to $3,682 per ounce in 2025 [5][6] Geopolitical Implications - High debt levels limit diplomatic flexibility, particularly in U.S.-China relations, where China holds approximately $780 billion in U.S. debt [8] - The trend of de-dollarization is accelerating, with non-dollar trade increasing and central banks shifting towards gold as a primary asset [8] - Historical patterns suggest that high debt levels can lead to military conflicts as a means to divert public attention from domestic issues [8] Social and Political Consequences - Wealth inequality has reached historic highs, with 90% of stock market wealth concentrated among the top 10% of the population [9] - Public concern over the federal budget deficit is significant, but political divisions hinder effective reform [9] - The lack of coherent fiscal policy exacerbates the debt crisis, with differing approaches from political parties complicating solutions [9] Fiscal Management and Cash Flow - The U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) has a balance of $410 billion, significantly below the target of $850 billion, necessitating frequent borrowing [10] - The short-term nature of U.S. debt makes the government sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, increasing refinancing costs [10] - The debt ceiling poses a significant risk, with potential market turmoil if Congress fails to raise or suspend it in a timely manner [11] Solutions and Future Outlook - Addressing the debt crisis requires a multi-faceted approach, including economic growth strategies, spending controls, and inflation management [13] - Long-term reforms should focus on balancing the budget, optimizing tax policies, and fostering international cooperation to attract foreign investment [15] - The next decade is critical for U.S. fiscal stability, necessitating decisive action to ensure long-term economic prosperity [16][17]

我国在7月份再次减持美债，这是今年以来的第四次减持，持仓也再创历史新低。 9月18日，美国公布的7月国际资金流动报告显示，我国在当月减持了257亿美元，创2009年以来新低。日本七月则增持美债至1.15万亿美元，仍然是美国国 债最大的海外持有国。 这已经是今年以来我国第四次减持美债，从2022年4月开始，我国的美债持仓就一直低于1万亿美元。鉴于中美关系变化和外储资产配置多元化的趋势，我国 的美国国债持仓未来仍然可能进一步下降。 今年我国美债持仓总体呈现"增减持交替、减持为主"的特征。1月份，我国增持了18亿美债，2月增持了235亿美债，3月减持了189亿美债，4月减持82亿美 债，5月减持9亿美债，6月则小幅增持了1亿美债，7月份则再次大幅减持257亿美债， 从长期趋势来看，自2022年4月我国美债持仓跌破万亿美元后，减持的步伐就一直在持续。 2022年，我国减持了1732亿美元；2023年减持了508亿美元，2024年减持了573亿美元；到了今年前7个月，已经减持了500亿美元。 换句话说，不出意外今年减持美元也可能会突破千亿。 从历史峰值的1.3万亿降至现在的7307亿，我国美债减持幅度已经超过了40%。 ...

今年3月到7月，我国连续减持537亿美元的美债，我国持有的美债已降到7307亿美元，为12年来最低 点。同时，我国又购入了22.7吨黄金，在不知不觉中进行着战术换仓。 然而，近几年来，这一传统认知正在被打破。EW冲突爆发后，美国及其盟友冻结了俄罗斯央行约3000 亿美元的外汇储备，这一举动彻底颠覆了国际社会对"资产安全性"的理解。 它传递出一个明确的信号：在极端地缘政治环境下，所谓的"市场规则"在政治面前P都不是，外汇储备 的安全性不再仅仅由经济因素决定，并且有可能在一夜之间从安全资产变成冻结资产。 由于1-2月份，我国增持了253亿美元的美债，所以前7个月实际减持金额为284亿美元，约合2020亿元人 民币。 购入的22.7吨黄金共花费1130亿元，可以看出，减持美债的钱，超过一半用来购买黄金了，可见我们已 经意识到地缘政治对资产安全的影响了，正加快进行资产再分配。 美国国债曾长期被视为"无风险资产"，是各国央行外汇储备的核心组成部分。其高流动性、稳定收益和 美元作为全球储备货币的地位，使得美债成为国际资本市场的避风港。 其实我们在这之前就已经开始减持美债了。 我国美债最多的时候是在2013年11月，当时余 ...

01、美元 "退烧" 早有信号？ 王爷说财经讯：9月28 日紧急提醒：美元撑不住了！今天1美元只能换 7.1349 人民币，比起9月4 日的 7.1426 已经连跌8天。 更关键的是，美元兑欧元、英镑甚至离岸人民币全在跌，仅今天对卢旺达法郎就跌了 5.57 个点。 美元这波走弱是暂时波动还是大趋势反转？对我们投资者又会有何影响呢？今天就一起来看看！ 其实从9 月17 日就该警觉了——美联储突然出手，把联邦基金利率从 4.25%-4.5% 降到了 4%-4.25%。 这是美联储今年第一次降息，背后藏着美国经济的大问题：8 月非农就业只增 2.2 万人，比 7 月少了近 6 万人，连去年的就业数据都下修了 91.1 万。 更要命的是全球央行都在 "用脚投票"。 据国际货币基金组织（IMF）最新的数据显示，现在美元在全球外汇储备里只占 57.74%，是 15 年来最低，而黄金储备占比却从 6.41% 涨到 14.8%。 而最近瑞士央行更是直接，坦言正在把美元换成欧元，毕竟它 1 万亿美元储备里，美元占比已从高位降了 2 个点。 02、为啥美元突然不香了？ 那么问题来了：为什么美元突然就变成这样了呢？ 王爷说财经认为 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on non-ferrous resource stocks, particularly copper, precious metals, and cobalt, suggesting an adjustment to a buy rating [1]. Core Insights - The copper supply issue has deepened market understanding of metal resource supply and demand dynamics. Despite a significant decline in China's real estate sector in 2023, various non-ferrous metals have shown unexpectedly strong consumption [1]. - The report highlights a notable increase in precious metals, reinforcing the logic of de-dollarization, with central bank gold reserves surpassing U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time in nearly 30 years [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring new material stocks related to technological growth, alongside traditional non-ferrous metals like copper, gold, silver, aluminum, cobalt, rare earths, antimony, and tungsten [1]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The weekly price of antimony ingots is reported at 175,000 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.96%. The domestic antimony market is still under pressure from oversupply [2]. - The non-ferrous metal index saw a weekly increase of 3.52%, ranking second among sectors. Precious metals led with a 5.55% increase, while small metals and new materials saw declines [4]. - The largest weekly gain was observed in cobalt prices, which rose by 12.74% due to surging demand from the battery industry and tightening export policies from the Democratic Republic of Congo [4]. Copper Market - As of September 25, copper inventories in major regions decreased by 0.88 million tons to 14.89 million tons, down from 15.43 million tons year-on-year. The report anticipates a shift from surplus to a slight deficit in global copper supply-demand balance by 2026 [4]. - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has faced operational setbacks, leading to a significant downward revision of expected copper output for 2025 and 2026 [4]. - The report suggests a bullish outlook for copper prices, driven by strong fundamentals and ongoing supply issues [4]. Aluminum Market - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventories decreased to 617,000 tons, indicating a clear trend of destocking. The report notes a significant increase in aluminum cable exports and a recovery in production rates [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have shown upward trends, with gold reaching 3,761 USD/ounce (+2.1%) and silver at 46.055 USD/ounce (+7.0%). The report attributes this to expectations of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [5]. - Platinum prices have also surged, with a reported increase of 12.2% in the past week, driven by geopolitical tensions and economic data [5]. New Materials and Energy - The report highlights the robust demand for lithium and cobalt, with lithium carbonate prices showing slight increases. The cobalt market is expected to face a significant supply gap in the coming years due to export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [5]. - The report also discusses the potential for uranium prices to rise due to supply constraints and increasing demand [6].

Core Viewpoint - The historical fluctuations in gold prices are deeply tied to global economic patterns, technological revolutions, and changes in the monetary system, with the current surge in gold prices reflecting a combination of loose monetary policies, weakened dollar credibility, and a trend towards "de-dollarization" [1][3][10] Historical Gold Market Cycles - The first major bull market in gold lasted from August 1971 to January 1980, with prices soaring from $35 to $850 per ounce, a cumulative increase of approximately 2328.57%, driven by the collapse of dollar credibility due to U.S. deficits and stagflation [2] - The second bull market spanned from February 2001 to August 2011, with prices rising from $251.9 to $1920.3 per ounce, a cumulative increase of about 662.3%, influenced by economic weakness following the dot-com bubble and the subprime mortgage crisis [2] - The current bull market, recognized as the third, began in 2022, with its driving forces being multifaceted pressures including political turmoil, fiscal challenges, and technological competition, rather than solely monetary policy [2][3] "De-dollarization" Trend - The global "de-dollarization" process is expected to accelerate by 2025, becoming a core driver for rising international gold prices, as central banks, including China's, increase their gold reserves [3][4] - A significant shift is observed as countries like Germany and Italy repatriate gold stored in the U.S., indicating a fundamental questioning of the safety of dollar assets [3] - A survey indicates that 95% of central banks plan to continue increasing gold reserves, reflecting strategic adjustments based on the expanding cracks in the dollar credit system [3] Current Drivers of Gold Prices - Global monetary policy easing is a primary factor driving gold prices upward, with the U.S. Federal Reserve recently lowering interest rates, enhancing gold's investment appeal [4][5] - The weakening dollar index, which has dropped from around 108 to approximately 97.62, has made gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, stimulating demand [5] - Political and economic uncertainties, including U.S. domestic political interventions and financial turmoil in emerging markets, have increased the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5][6] Structural Changes in the Gold Market - Continuous gold purchases by central banks provide a stable source of demand, with global gold ETF inflows reaching 473 tons since 2025, contrasting with net outflows in 2024 [6] - The potential shift from "diversification" to "strategic" gold purchases by central banks could lead to structural growth in official demand for gold [6][8] Future Price Outlook - In the next six months, international gold prices are expected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern, with potential to break through $3800 per ounce depending on U.S. Federal Reserve signals and geopolitical developments [7][10] - The baseline scenario predicts gold prices fluctuating between $3500 and $4500 per ounce over the next 12 months, with a central tendency around $3750 per ounce, reflecting a 15% to 30% increase from September 2025 levels [10] - Long-term projections suggest that gold prices could exceed $6000 per ounce within 3 to 5 years, driven by the reconfiguration of the global monetary system and increasing official demand [8][10]

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京9月28日电 黄金价格的历史波动始终与全球经济格局、技术革命浪潮和货币体系变革深度 绑定。回顾布雷顿森林体系瓦解后的50年，国际黄金市场经历了三轮标志性牛市与两次主要熊市，每一 轮周期的背后都折射出技术迭代与货币霸权的博弈轨迹。 当前国际黄金价格突破3700美元／盎司的历史新高，不仅是对全球货币政策宽松的即时反应，更是技术 优势转移、美元信用弱化与"去美元化"浪潮叠加的必然结果。从金价决定因素的演变趋势看，支撑国际 金价的基本面因素在短期和中长期均未发生实质性改变。因此，2025年国际黄金价格的新高可能只是长 期上涨趋势中的一个里程碑，而非终点。 黄金市场周期的历史镜像：技术革命与货币霸权的博弈 第一轮黄金大牛市（1971年8月至1980年1月）持续8年半，国际金价从布雷顿森林体系瓦解前的35美元 ／盎司飙升至1980年1月的850美元／盎司，累计涨幅约2328.57%。其核心驱动力是美国双赤字扩张与 滞胀危机引发的美元信用崩塌。这一时期技术革命处于酝酿阶段，美国尚未建立新的产业优势，黄金作 为"货币危机对冲工具"的属性得到极致释放。 第二轮黄金大牛市（2001年2月至2011年8 ...

谁在接盘？ 英国、日本成"冤大头"，稳定币成新赌具 当美联储疯狂抛售时，接盘力量主要来自两类角色：一是日本和英国等传统盟友，二是新兴的稳定币发 行方。 日本至今持有1.15万亿美元美债，稳居最大海外债主，英国更是激进增持至8993亿美元，反超中 国成为第二。 美联储，这个全球最大的央行，在3年多时间里悄悄抛售了1.6万亿美元的美债，规模相当于日本和英国 两大债主持仓的总和，远超中国十年累计减持的5000亿。这场抛售潮中，海外投资者反而在增持，而美 联储的"缩表"甚至与降息同步进行。 一边放水，一边抽水，美国经济的矛盾操作背后，是一场关于债 务、通胀和政治压力的危险博弈。 美联储的"双重身份"：既是裁判又是球员 通常情况下，美债市场的卖家主要是各国央行或机构投资者，但这一次，主角变成了美债的发行方监管 者，美联储。 这种操作与其说是主动选择，不如说是被通胀逼入墙角。 2022年美国通胀飙升至9%时，美联储只能通 过抛售美债回收流动性，每月最高减持950亿美元。 更矛盾的是，2024年9月美联储开启降息周期后，缩表却未停止。 一边降息刺激经济，一边抛债收紧银 根，这种看似精神分裂的操作，暴露了美联储的艰难处境：降 ...

先说说美国自己的问题吧。特朗普上台后推的那些关税政策，本来想护着本土产业，结果适得其反。高关税一加，贸易伙伴们不乐意了，进口成本涨，通胀 压力大增，高盛直接把2025年美国经济衰退概率从20%调到35%。 关税平均率预期从10%拉到15%，这不光打压了出口，还让美元在国际支付里的份额缩水。2025年1月和2月，美元跨境支付占比分别掉到50.17%和48.95%， 贸易融资里虽还有81%，但也开始松动。 巴黎银行的货币策略主管彼得·瓦萨直言，美元指数今年开局这么弱，是80年代中期以来头一遭。说白了，美国贸易赤字和财政赤字双双爆表，债务占 GDP125%，谁还敢放心大胆地买美债？ 各国央行这几年动作可不小，尤其是减持美债这事儿。拿中国来说，2025年减持力度明显加大。从1月到7月，持仓量从年初的8000多亿美金一路往下走，7 月单月甩掉257亿，持仓只剩7307亿，这是2009年2月以来最低点。 整个上半年，中国减持为主，3月掉189亿，4月82亿，5月也减了点，2月虽增了235亿，但整体趋势是往下。 不是中国一个人这么干，日本和英国7月还增持了点，但法国也跟着减，全球抛售潮让美债收益率曲线陡峭起来，美国融资成本 ...