当前时点如何看铜铝金 20250612 摘要 美国经济逐渐摆脱滞胀风险，高频通胀数据优于预期，非农就业数据强 劲，预计金价维持震荡，等待数据松动迹象倒逼联储开启第二轮降息， 或于三季度启动，金价有望突破 3,500 美元，向 3,800~4,000 美元进 发。 权益市场信心不足，对传统周期担忧反映在股票估值上。4 月起权益比 商品表现更强，是资本市场对去美元化信用逻辑的强化认知。若金价突 破 3,500 美元，将带动权益一线标的进入第二轮估值盈利共振上攻。 建议左侧增配黄金股头部及弹性标的，看好 9 月行情。衰退和降息逻辑， 叠加去美元化线索，一线标的打开盈利估值共振空间后，二三线可再上 台阶。一线首推 AAA 港股及赤峰黄金，二三线关注中润资源、鹏欣资源 （A 股）以及万国黄金国际、灵宝黄金（港股）。 近期商品交易受经济预期修复、美元走弱和基本面强劲影响。铝作为工 业金属中短期基本面最健康的品种，历史库存最低且去化较快；铜则处 于历史次低位库存且去化正常。 Q&A 当前贵金属市场的整体表现如何？未来走势预测是什么？ 过去一个月，贵金属市场处于箱体震荡区间，上沿在 3,500 美元左右，下沿在 3,200 ...

来源|财联社 一个月前，财联社就曾介绍过，随着上月特朗普反复无常的关税政策引发美国资产抛售潮，一波最 新的"去美元化"浪潮正在亚洲蔚然成风；眼下，越来越多的市场人士显然已无法忽视这股浪潮 的"崛起"…… 一个月前，财联社就曾介绍过，随着上月特朗普反复无常的关税政策引发美国资产抛售潮，一波最 新的"去美元化"浪潮正在亚洲蔚然成风。而眼下，越来越多的市场人士显然已无法忽视这股浪潮 的"崛起"…… 5月26日，东盟在其新发布的《2026-2030年经济共同体战略计划》中承诺，将推动本币在贸易和 投资中的使用，并提出通过推广本币结算、加强区域支付互联互通等措施，减少汇率波动带来的冲 击。 三菱日联金融集团(MUFG)亚洲全球市场研究主管Lin Li对媒体表示， 随着亚洲经济体寻求减少对 美元的依赖，特别是希望使用本国货币作为交易媒介以降低外汇风险，去美元化的趋势正在不断加 强。 虽然去美元化本身并不是什么新现象，但近来的情形演变可能已经发生了质的变化。投资者和官员 们开始认识到，在贸易谈判中，美元即使没有被公开武器化，也完全可以而且已经被用作一种"筹 码"。 巴克莱银行的Kotecha指出，去美元化是一个 "持续、缓 ...

来源|财联社 一个月前，财联社就曾介绍过，随着上月特朗普反复无常的关税政策引发美国资产抛售潮，一波最 新的"去美元化"浪潮正在亚洲蔚然成风；眼下，越来越多的市场人士显然已无法忽视这股浪潮 的"崛起"…… 一个月前，财联社就曾介绍过，随着上月特朗普反复无常的关税政策引发美国资产抛售潮，一波最 新的"去美元化"浪潮正在亚洲蔚然成风。而眼下，越来越多的市场人士显然已无法忽视这股浪潮 的"崛起"…… 5月26日，东盟在其新发布的《2026-2030年经济共同体战略计划》中承诺，将推动本币在贸易和 投资中的使用，并提出通过推广本币结算、加强区域支付互联互通等措施，减少汇率波动带来的冲 击。 三菱日联金融集团(MUFG)亚洲全球市场研究主管Lin Li对媒体表示， 随着亚洲经济体寻求减少对 美元的依赖，特别是希望使用本国货币作为交易媒介以降低外汇风险，去美元化的趋势正在不断加 强。 虽然去美元化本身并不是什么新现象，但近来的情形演变可能已经发生了质的变化。投资者和官员 们开始认识到，在贸易谈判中，美元即使没有被公开武器化，也完全可以而且已经被用作一种"筹 码"。 巴克莱银行亚洲外汇和新兴市场宏观策略主管Mitul Kot ...

根据英国媒体BBC的报道，美国政府目前债务之高，令人瞠目结舌，总负债达到了36万亿美元，其中约 10万亿美元将在2025年到期，这占到了美国GDP的30%。 另外，美国政府一年的财政收入仅为5万亿美元左右，光利息支出就达到了1万亿美元。 债务如此巨大，又无法开源节流，美国政府只有一个办法——"借新还旧，寅吃卯粮"。 然而，十年期美债收益率的飙升，让特朗普酝酿已久的"关税"政策也胎死腹中。 在此背景下，中国有没有抛售美债呢？中国当前持有的美债还有多少呢？ 无奈的耶伦 2023年，那会儿还是拜登执政时期，双方在贸易问题上依旧延续了特朗普第一任的政策。 早在6月7日，美国财政部就表示：因为债务上限问题，导致美国财政部手中的美元下降到2017年以来的 最低水平。 手中没了余粮，政府开支就成了问题，各项政策也只能按下暂停键。 为此，耶伦掌管的财政部放出了风声，希望"在9月份之前，能够让财政部一般账户（TGA）恢复到约 6000亿美元。" 针对中国的关税，拜登政府是一点没降，还扩大了对华芯片出口的管制力度。 作为全球最大的消费国家之一，美国的商品大多都来自于中国，政治上的紧张关系，必定会反应在海关 数据上。 2023年上 ...

Market Overview - After experiencing policy fluctuations, market risk appetite has rebounded, with US stocks showing a strong recovery over the past month, bringing the S&P 500 index close to historical highs [1] - As of June 11, the S&P 500 index closed at 6022.24 points, reflecting an 18% rebound from early April, while the Nasdaq Composite index saw a 26% increase during the same period [1] Analyst Predictions - Several Wall Street investment banks have expressed optimistic expectations for the US stock market, with Goldman Sachs projecting a 10% increase in the S&P 500 index by the end of 2025, raising its target to 6500 points [4] - Citigroup has also raised its target for the S&P 500 index to 6300 points, anticipating a further 5% increase [4] - Analysts indicate that after the recent rise, valuations have reached historical highs, leading some investors to exit the market, suggesting limited upward potential for US stocks moving forward [4] Economic Factors - The Chief Investment Officer of Wells Fargo, Darrell Cronk, believes that the US stock market will experience more dramatic volatility this year compared to the previous two years, with significant fluctuations expected in the second half of 2025 [5] - Despite the lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, core inflation is showing signs of recovery, and there are risks of inflation rising due to potential tariff costs being passed on to consumers [5] - The impact of the Trump tax cuts may also play a significant role in the US stock market, presenting both opportunities and risks for economic growth and valuations [5] Valuation Insights - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the S&P 500 has risen to 27.82, indicating that US stocks are still relatively high in terms of valuation [6] - The expectation for S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) growth is 7% for the second half of 2025 and 14% for 2026, although some analysts believe these projections may be overly optimistic given the potential impact of tariff policies [5][6] Asset Allocation Trends - There is a noticeable shift in global investment strategies from "dollar asset allocation" to "non-dollar asset reallocation," emphasizing the importance of diversified asset allocation [8] - The trend of "de-dollarization" is prompting countries to adjust their balance sheets, which may increase demand for Chinese assets, particularly in sectors like consumption, smart devices, robotics, and automation [8] Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market is expected to experience significant development opportunities, with relative valuations likely to rise and expansion opportunities on the horizon [9] - The Hang Seng Index's dynamic P/E ratio is currently at 10.37, while the Hang Seng Tech Index stands at 19.96, indicating that both indices have room for valuation recovery compared to major overseas indices [9]

导读 ： 游戏出海再迎利好；黄金成全球第二大储备资产 ； 解锁【第一财经智享会员】实时解读市场动态，把握投资先机。 2025.06.12 【第一财经智享会员专属】 【 今 日 速 读 】 精选行业研报，助您捕捉行业风口 【精选快读】 1、游戏出海再迎政策助推，有望推动行业盈利能力提升 2、黄金成为全球第二大储备资产，央行增持黄金仍是大方向 1、游戏出海再迎政策助推，有望推动行业盈利能力提升 近日，浙江省商务厅等1 7部门近日印发《关于支持游戏出海的若干措施》，自2 0 2 5年7月1 0日起施行。其中提到，推动中华文化"走出去"、加强国际传播 能力建设，推进对外文化贸易高质量发展。 6月4日，深圳市商务局、市发展改革委联合印发《深圳市推动服务贸易和数字贸易高质量发展实施方案》。其中提出，拓展文创数字贸易。完善游戏出海 发展促进政策，建立游戏出海公共服务平台，支持企业建立海外研发中心和发行渠道，提升游戏品牌的国际影响力。 中信证券表示，政策支持叠加AI、云游戏等技术迭代，推动中国游戏出海收入CAGR超2 0 %，预计2 0 2 5年全球收入规模达3 2 8亿美元，国产游戏的全球市 场空间有望超预期。 广发证券指 ...

Group 1: Gold Market and Central Banks - The international spot gold price has surged over 60% since early last year, reflecting heightened market risk aversion and increasing gold's share in global reserve assets [1] - Central banks worldwide are accelerating de-dollarization efforts, reducing reliance on the US dollar amid geopolitical tensions and concerns over US debt risks [1] - The ongoing "gold hoarding" trend among central banks may continue to undermine the dollar's status as a reserve currency [1] Group 2: Smartphone Production - In Q1 2025, global smartphone production reached 289 million units, a decrease of approximately 3% year-on-year, with stable performance across brands [2] - China's smartphone sales benefited from policy incentives, leading to slight growth in sales during the first quarter [2] - Market demand is expected to remain subdued in Q2 due to international uncertainties, with production forecasts holding steady compared to Q1 [2] Group 3: Robotics Industry - The global humanoid robot market is projected to reach a value of $4 billion by 2028, driven by advancements in AI and mechanical technologies [2] - Humanoid robots are seen as key enablers for computing power, with clear application potential in various sectors [2] Group 4: Consumer Market Changes - Henan entrepreneurs are reshaping the consumer market landscape with notable companies like Mixue Ice Cream, Pop Mart, and Pang Donglai, which have become significant players in their respective sectors [4] - Pop Mart has established itself as a billion-dollar empire in the trendy toy market, while Mixue leads in the beverage sector with a market cap exceeding HKD 200 billion [4] - Pang Donglai has gained attention for its unique business model, becoming a benchmark for imitation in the industry [4] Group 5: Corporate Developments - Yi Yatong, a supply chain giant, has undergone a significant management change with the resignation of its long-serving general manager, marking the first change in 21 years [4] - The company received a regulatory warning two months prior, indicating issues in corporate governance and financial practices [4] - Ant Group's Ant Digital has initiated the application process for a stablecoin license in Hong Kong, aiming to establish a global headquarters there [3] Group 6: Financial Updates - Nanjing Pharmaceutical announced that its first tranche of medium-term notes, amounting to 1 billion yuan, will be redeemed on June 20, 2025, with an interest rate of 3.1% [5] - Di Ao Micro plans to increase capital by 200 million yuan for its wholly-owned subsidiary, focusing on R&D and industrialization of automotive-grade chips [6] - China Power Construction has won a 10.77 billion yuan EPC contract for a large offshore wind power project in Liaoning [7]

Group 1: Macro Economic Outlook - The "924" policy shift in 2024 significantly improved market risk appetite, leading to increased market activity and valuation recovery in certain sectors[2] - By 2025, the macro economy shows signs of stabilization, with corporate profits beginning to recover from the bottom[2] - Despite improvements, the current macro environment remains complex, leading to increased volatility in some assets[2] Group 2: Industrial Profit Analysis - From January to April 2025, industrial enterprises' profits shifted from decline to growth, with high-tech manufacturing profits increasing by 9.0% year-on-year, outperforming the overall industrial average by 7.6%[6] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises was 4.87% from January to April 2025, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points year-on-year[7] - Equipment manufacturing remains a crucial support for profit growth, with a profit increase of 15.5% in the same period[10] Group 3: A-Share Market Predictions - A-shares are expected to reach a "profit bottom" in Q2 or Q3 2025, aligning with industrial profit trends[16] - The predicted cumulative profit growth rates for industrial enterprises in Q2, Q3, and Q4 2025 are 0.6%, 3.5%, and 3.3% respectively[16] - The upcoming mid-year reports for listed companies will be critical in assessing the effectiveness of the "924" policy and the resilience of the Chinese economy[31]

基 金 研 究 （可公开）变中有常，守常而应变 ——公募基金 2025 年中期投资策略 2025 年 06 月 12 日 投资要点 分析师：李荣 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340521010001 F4520000001431 电话：0769-26628039 邮箱：lirong@dgzq.com.cn 基 金 专 题 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 1.（可公开）基金研究专题：基于市 20250306 —20250410 历史新高——20250506 上半年市场回顾:全球主要权益资产震荡上行，在去美元化、地缘政治博 弈下黄金资产表现优异，原油资产下跌，港股市场超额收益显著。国内A 股市场震荡分化，走出典型的"N形"形态。基金市场方面，主要基金指 数均录得正收益，主动权益基金跑出超额，各类型ETF基金均呈现资金净 流入。 基金从业资格证书编号： 下半年大类资产配置观点：权益资产方面，A股市场估值合理，政策托底， 随着市场对关税扰动效应逐渐脱敏，市场交易逐渐回归经济基本面，优 质的权益资产将迎 ...

巴克莱的亚洲外汇和新兴市场宏观战略主管卡特查称，虽然去美元化并非新现象，但最近的相关叙事发生了变 化。 由于地缘政治的不确定性、美元疲软趋势和货币对冲需求，东盟以及整个亚洲都正在去美元化中。在近期发布的 《2026年至2030年经济共同体战略计划》（Economic Community Strategic Plan for 2026 to 2030）中，东盟 （ASEAN）承诺在贸易和投资中推广使用本币。该计划概述了通过促进本币结算和加强区域支付互联互通，来减 少由汇率波动带来的冲击。 不少分析师认为，东盟的情况是亚洲经济体的一个缩影，亚洲乃至全球接下来会加速去美元化进程。并且，一些 亚洲经济体也确实具有将其海外收入或资产兑换回本币的能力。三菱日联的亚洲全球市场研究主管林莉（Lin Li）表示，随着东盟及其他亚洲经济体更加针对性地寻求减少美元依赖，以期使用本国货币作为交易媒介来降低 外汇风险，去美元化进程正在加剧。 但分析师也提示称，尽管去美元化进程加速，但要改变美元作为全球第一储备货币的地位，仍具挑战性。 ITC Markets的亚洲外汇和利率分析师吉（Andy Ji）预计，最依赖贸易的经济体的美元需求，接 ...