Group 1 - Significant fluctuations in gold and silver prices were observed, with spot silver dropping over 10% and spot gold falling below $4600, closing at $4504.07 per ounce, a decrease of 7.41% [2] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange announced adjustments to the margin levels and price limits for silver deferred contracts due to high volatility, increasing the margin from 20% to 26% and the price limit from 19% to 25% in case of a one-sided market [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts that while silver prices are expected to rise, they will exhibit higher volatility compared to gold, maintaining a target price of $5400 per ounce for gold by the end of 2026 [4] Group 2 - UBS forecasts that global central bank gold net purchases will reach 950 tons by 2026, with a strong inclination among multiple countries to increase gold reserves, and expects gold ETF net inflows to reach 825 tons, significantly exceeding the average from 2010 to 2020 [5] - UBS has raised its gold price targets for March, June, and September 2026 to $5000 per ounce, with a slight year-end drop to $4800 per ounce, while silver is expected to outperform gold, potentially reaching $100 per ounce in the first half of the year [5]

Market Overview - The capital market experienced a significant downturn, with major indices in the Asia-Pacific region, including the Hang Seng Index and A-shares, dropping over 2%. The South Korean stock market fell more than 5%, triggering a circuit breaker. The futures market saw widespread declines in commodity prices, with many contracts hitting their daily limit down [2]. Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector faced a dramatic decline, with over 30 stocks hitting the limit down. Key players such as Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold saw declines of 10% [5]. - Futures prices for silver, platinum, palladium, lithium carbonate, nickel, tin, copper, aluminum, and crude oil all fell sharply, with gold futures dropping over 15%. This followed a period of irrational price surges driven by factors like de-dollarization and geopolitical risks [7]. - Market institutions have mixed views on the future of precious metals. Citigroup warned that half of the current risk premium for gold may dissipate by late 2026, while other institutions like CITIC Securities maintain bullish forecasts, predicting gold could reach $6,000 per ounce by 2026 [8]. Semiconductor and AI Sector - The South Korean stock market's decline was largely attributed to the semiconductor and AI supply chain, with major companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix experiencing significant drops of nearly 6% and over 8%, respectively. The A-share storage chip sector also saw substantial declines, with multiple stocks falling over 10% [10]. - Reports indicate that major manufacturers are tightening order reviews to mitigate market volatility caused by excessive orders from some clients [12]. Electric Grid Equipment Sector - The electric grid equipment sector performed well against the market trend, with companies like Baobian Electric and Hancable hitting the daily limit up, and TBEA rising over 4% [14]. - The global AI computing power construction is entering a rapid growth phase, with high-power and stable electricity supply becoming critical for computing clusters. Transformer factories are reportedly operating at full capacity, with some orders extending to 2027 [16]. - The State Grid announced a fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, a 40% increase from the previous plan, indicating a historical high in investment [17].

此外，油气板块也出现跌停潮，中曼石油（603619）、准油股份（002207）、石化油服（600871）等多 股跌停。嘉实原油LOF、石油基金LOF、石油LOF、原油LOF易方达、中信保诚商品LOF、南方原油 LOF、大宗商品LOF、资源LOF、国投资源LOF等此前高溢价的场内资源品主题基金也集体跌停。 消息面上，国际油价持续下挫，美油、布油双双跌破5%，分别报61美元/桶和65美元/桶。据新华社报 道，美国总统特朗普1日对媒体表示，希望伊朗能与美国达成核协议，否则世界"很快就会看到"伊朗最 高领袖哈梅内伊的警告是否正确。 当天农业板块也跌幅居前，大北农（002385）、厦门象屿（600057）跌停，智慧农业、史丹利 （002588）等多股跟跌。 消息面上，2日下午，现货黄金一度失守4500美元/盎司，为1月9日以来首次，截至发稿跌至4528美元/ 盎司附近。现货白银也一度跌破72美元/盎司，日内跌超12%，现报72美元/盎司。贵金属市场的抛售情 绪显著扩散至其他品种。国内期货市场普跌，有超过10个期货品种主力合约封住或触及跌停，涉及黄 金、白银、铂、钯、铜、铝、镍、原油、碳酸锂等。 新湖期货认为，长期来看， ...

新京报贝壳财经讯（记者徐雨婷）2月2日下午，现货黄金盘中一度跌破4410美元/盎司，日内跌超9%。 截至盘中，伦敦金报4450美元/盎司，跌8.44%；COMEX黄金报4486美元/盎司，跌5.44%。 白银方面，现货白银一度跌超14%，截至盘中，伦敦银报72.8美元/盎司，跌14.52%；COMEX白银报 73.5美元/盎司，跌6.35%。 前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙指出，国际金价大幅下跌和大量抛压有关，短期涨幅过大累积了大量 获利盘，在市场见顶回落的时候出现急跌，但金价长期上涨的逻辑不变，去美元化趋势不变。短期涨幅 过快引起大幅回调，预计急速下跌的阶段很快结束，后期可能会出现反复震荡走势。 银价走势是否会随金价调整？盘和林认为，银价会随着金价调整，金银价比一定程度上是符合逻辑的。 周毅钦则指出，现货白银日内跌幅超15%，前期投机资金扎堆出逃，短期无支撑力量，后续大概率还要 再下探到60-65美元区间。 编辑 陈莉 校对 穆祥桐 展望后市，工信部信息通信经济专家委员会委员盘和林表示，金价还会维持较高的价格水平，但再创新 高的难度较大，金价上涨是有可能的，但上涨的主升浪已经结束，未来只是投资人阶段性补仓导 ...

Group 1 - The spot gold price fell below $4500 per ounce for the first time since January 9, experiencing a daily drop of 7.9%, and was reported at $4533.66 per ounce, down 7.38% [1] - Spot silver saw a decline of over 14%, with a current price of $75.46 per ounce, reflecting an 11.49% drop [1] - In the domestic futures market, the main gold futures contract (沪金2604) dropped over 15%, reaching 1016 yuan per gram, while the main silver futures contract hit the limit down [2] Group 2 - According to a report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC), gold prices have surpassed traditional fundamental influences, with conventional models like real interest rates becoming ineffective [4] - New Lake Futures' report indicates that despite the recent surge in gold prices exceeding last October's highs, the non-commercial long positions in COMEX gold have not reached previous peaks, suggesting limited institutional buying interest [4] - Tao Dong, President and Chief Economist of Waterous Capital (Hong Kong), believes that while short-term gold trends remain uncertain, the long-term outlook for gold is positive due to a shift towards de-dollarization, attracting sovereign, institutional, and retail funds to this alternative investment [4]

股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 2月2日，经济学家马光远表示，黄金是这个世界上最烂的投资，这个观点不会因为黄金涨到五千美元就 改变。原因在于黄金在历史上大多数情况表现不佳，而且长期处于熊市。 这一轮黄金上涨的过程中，理由不外乎去美元化、俄乌冲突等地缘风险、央行增持等等。这是任何时候 都可以解释的标准答案。但如果预测黄金未来会涨到10000美元，得告诉大家理由，以及每一个理由的 拉动力。比如，央行未来买黄金能拉动黄金上涨多少，美国打伊朗会上涨多少。但事实上，没有任何一 个机构这么去做，大家都才猜谜，大家都在算命。股市好的时候，遍地是股神，现在是黄金，到处都是 喊涨的算命先生。市场上现在关于黄金能涨到多少，就是算命，就是瞎蒙。 黄金是对未来不确定和风险的定价，而不是对未来收益或者产出的判断。巴菲特从来不碰黄金，就是因 为他认为未来的不确定是很难判断的。因此，不要懊恼错过了黄金白银（核心股）的行情，这本来就属 于不正常的走势，也是超过你的想象和认知的。 ...

·特朗普提名沃什执掌美联储 ·美联储将基准利率维持在3.50%~3.75%不变 ·加拿大央行维持2.25%基准利率不变 ·巴西央行维持基准利率在15%不变 ·韩元过度贬值引警报央行呼吁加强外汇对冲 ·阿联酋央行批准全球首个央行监管稳定币 【全球央行动态】 ·特朗普正式提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什接替鲍威尔出任下任美联储主席。该提名需参议院批准，但民 主党领袖舒默与共和党参议员蒂利斯已明确表示，除非撤销对鲍威尔的调查，否则将联手阻止沃什上 任。 ·美联储将基准利率维持在3.50%~3.75%不变，结束自去年9月以来的连续三次降息。尽管符合市场预 期，但政策声明透露出内部意见分化：理事米兰和沃勒投下反对票，主张降息25个基点。 ·新加坡金管局称，政策区间宽度及其中心水平保持不变。 ·香港金管局将基准利率维持在4.0%不变，称美国未来息率走向仍存在不确定性，对香港的利率环境亦 会有所影响。 ·加纳央行将关键利率下调250个基点至15.50%。加纳央行行长称，加纳央行已出售部分黄金储备以获取 外汇。 ·乌拉圭央行降息100个基点至6.50%。 ·韩国央行行长李昌镛警告，韩元贬值已远超合理区间，恐推高通胀压力。他敦促国民 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman is expected to significantly impact monetary policy, leading to a stronger dollar and increased bond yields, while causing a sharp decline in precious metal prices [2][10]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Warsh's nomination, the dollar index surged from approximately 96.1 to around 97.2, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose by 5 basis points to over 4.27%, briefly exceeding 4.28% [2]. - Gold prices fell sharply, retreating 9.13% after reaching over $5,500 per ounce at the end of January [5]. - Silver prices experienced a cumulative decline of 26.20% over three days [7]. Group 2: Kevin Warsh's Background and Policy Stance - Warsh is not a new face at the Federal Reserve, having served as a governor from 2006 to 2011 and being a vocal critic of the second round of quantitative easing (QE2) during the 2008 financial crisis [8]. - He has criticized the Fed's balance sheet expansion and proposed reforms aimed at returning to a more disciplined monetary policy framework [9][20]. Group 3: Implications of Warsh's Policies - Warsh advocates for "balance sheet reduction in exchange for interest rate cuts," aiming to control inflation while supporting short-term economic growth and asset prices [9]. - His hawkish stance is expected to strengthen the dollar, as the Fed may prioritize balance sheet management over merely lowering interest rates, increasing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [14]. - The anticipated reduction in the Fed's balance sheet could tighten offshore dollar liquidity, raising global financing costs and impacting emerging markets reliant on dollar funding [15][18]. Group 4: Factors Behind Precious Metal Price Declines - The decline in precious metal prices is attributed to multiple factors, including speculative long positions being liquidated and a high concentration of leveraged positions that triggered a domino effect of forced selling [10][12]. - The strong dollar, driven by Warsh's nomination, exerts downward pressure on commodities priced in dollars, including gold and silver [14]. - Increased margin requirements for gold and silver futures by institutions like the CME have forced high-leverage positions to close, exacerbating liquidity issues and price volatility [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - In the short term, gold and silver may continue to face selling pressure as the market adjusts to the new environment of tightening dollar liquidity [17]. - Warsh's potential policy implementation could lead to a more structured and predictable monetary policy, enhancing the credibility and effectiveness of the Fed in the long run [17][20]. - However, the transition may involve significant short-term challenges, particularly for emerging markets that depend on offshore dollar liquidity, which could face capital outflows and increased financing costs [18][19].

2月2日，国内商品期市开盘后，多数主力合约下跌。 市场情绪急速切换，贵金属领跌市场 跌幅方面，沪银、钯、铂、沪锡跌停，沪金跌11.68%；基本金属全部下跌。此外，能源、黑色、化工、航运等板块也都出 现不同程度的下跌。当日下午开盘后，原油、燃料油、铜、铝合金等多个品种纷纷跌停。 | | 全部主力 夜 向 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 代码 | 名称 | 现给 | 涨幅(结)1 | 涨跌 | 涨速 | 买价 | 卖价 | | 1 | ag2604 | 沪银2604 | 24832 | -17.00% | -5087 | 0.00 | - | 24832 | | 2 | au2604 | 沪金2604 | 1005.40 | -16.00% | -191.52 | 0.00 | 1005.40 | 1005.46 | | 3 | pd2606 | 舞2606 | 413.70 | -16.00% | -78.80 | 0.00 | 1 | 413.70 | | 4 | pt2606 | 拍260 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 恐慌性抛售席卷贵金属市场，金银暴跌 国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2026-2-02 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 ◆ 上周贵金属价格波动剧烈，先扬后抑，全线崩盘。主要影响因素分析如下：（1）上半周，在避 险需求强劲和美元走弱等因素的提振下，贵金属价格加速冲高，伦敦现货黄金逼近5600美元/盎 司，伦敦现货白银突破121美元/盎司关口。一方面，美国对伊朗极限施压，市场愈发担忧美国 对伊朗"动武"，地缘避险持续升温，驱动贵金属价格大幅上涨；另一方面，市场对美日联合干 预汇市的预期和特朗普对美元贬值的表态令美元指数一度大幅走弱至95.5附近，进一步利好贵金 属价格。（2）下半周，在金银多头头寸极度拥挤背景下，因美股流动性收紧的触发，贵金属市 场开始出现获利了结压力。随后周五亚盘外媒报道称特朗普政府将提名前理事凯文·沃什出任新 美联储主席，这一消息在昨日晚间得到特朗普确认。因沃什 ...