Core Viewpoint - The formulation and implementation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" is crucial for advancing China's modernization and fulfilling the strategic deployments of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China [4]. Group 1: Planning and Decision-Making - Emphasis on scientific, democratic, and legal decision-making processes in the planning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [3][4]. - The need for top-level design and public consultation to gather diverse opinions and experiences from the populace [4]. Group 2: Economic Context and Challenges - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is seen as a critical transitional phase for achieving socialist modernization by 2035, facing both strategic opportunities and risks [7][8]. - Key economic issues to consider during planning include growth, demand, and supply [7]. Group 3: High-Quality Development - The importance of high-quality development and the need to upgrade supply, demand, and efficiency structures to achieve effective qualitative and reasonable quantitative economic growth [8][9]. - The role of technological innovation and new industries, such as AI and biotechnology, in driving future growth [8]. Group 4: Urban-Rural Integration - Urban-rural integration is highlighted as a necessary requirement for modernization, aiming to enhance planning, construction, and governance at both urban and rural levels [9]. Group 5: Macroeconomic Governance - The necessity for improved macroeconomic governance and policy consistency in response to changing external conditions and internal economic demands [11][12]. - The ongoing evolution of fiscal policy since 2008, with a focus on optimizing its effectiveness for growth and risk management [12]. Group 6: Trust Industry Development - The trust industry is encouraged to focus on high-quality development paths and align its strategies with the broader goals of China's modernization [13].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 节前一周，政策出台不多，主要关注以下内容。 （一）全国人大动态 ： 4 月 30 日，全国人大常委会表决通过民营经济促进法，该法将于 5 月 20 日 正式实施。 （二）总书记重要行程 ： 1 ） 4 月 29 日， 总书记在上海考察，并在上海"模速空间"大模型创新生 态社区调研，对上海积极发展人工智能取得的实效给予肯定。 2 ） 4 月 30 日，总书记主持召开部分 省区市"十五五"时期经济社会发展座谈会，强调谋划"十五五"时期经济社会发展，要"要坚定不移办好 自己的事，坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放"，"更加注重统筹发展和安全"，"把因地制宜发展新质生产 力摆在更加突出的战略位置"，"稳步推动共同富裕"等。 （三）发改委及财政部政策吹风 ： 1 ） 4 月 28 日 ， 国新办就稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措 施有关情况举行发布会，发改委表示，" 提振消费方面 ，近期我们已经下达了今年第二批消费品以旧 换新资金，前两批一共下达超过 ...

国债期货日报 | 2025-05-07 中美摩擦与政策观望期内，国债期货涨跌分化 核心观点 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：3月5日，十四届全国人大三次会议指出将实施更加积极的财政政策，今年赤字率拟4%， 一般公共预算支出规模29.7万亿元；拟发行超长期特别国债1.3万亿元，拟安排地方政府专项债券4.4万亿元，今年 合计新增政府债务总规模11.86万亿元；实施适度宽松的货币政策。 2）通胀：3月CPI同比下降0.1%。 资金面：（3）央行：2025-05-06，央行以固定利率1.5%、数量招标方式开展了4050亿元7天的逆回购操作，操作利 率为1.5%。（4）货币市场：主要期限回购利率1D、7D、14D和1M分别为1.702%、1.707%、1.737% 和1.732%，回 购利率近期回落。 市场面：（5）收盘价：2025-05-06，TS、TF、T、TL收盘价分别为102.31元、106.06元、109.05元、120.97元。涨跌 幅：TS、TF、T和TL涨跌幅分别为-0.06%、-0.04%、0.00%和 0.11%。（7）TS、TF、T和TL净基差均值分别为-0.032 元、-0.055元、-0.1 ...

在不确定性因素增多背景下，财政政策必须加力发挥逆周期调节作用，持续加大支出强度、加快支出进 度，让政策发挥最大效能。 在更加积极的财政政策导向下，今年一季度虽然财政收入承压，但财政支出强度与进度实现双提升。财 政部数据显示，一季度一般公共预算收入同比下降1.1%，但支出增长4.2%；政府性基金预算收入同比 下降11%，但支出增长11.1%；一般公共预算完成全年支出进度的24.5%，高于过去5年同期平均水平。 从结构上看，一季度社会保障和就业支出增长7.9%、教育支出增长7.8%，重点领域支出增速远超整体 水平。可见，在财政紧平衡趋势下，积极财政前置发力的态势明显，关键领域投入力度不减。 今年一季度支出强度大、进度快，体现了财政政策更加积极、主动靠前发力取向，有力促进了经济向新 向好。一季度GDP同比增长5.4%，消费投资继续改善，就业形势总体稳定，新质生产力成长壮大。其 中，大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策继续显效，一季度社会消费品零售总额同比增长4.6%，设 备工器具购置投资同比增长19%。投资方面，一季度固定资产投资同比增长4.2%，比上年加快1个百分 点，其中，基础设施投资增长5.8%，制造业投资增长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid increase in local government bond issuance in 2025 is aimed at stabilizing the economy, mitigating risks, and funding major projects, debt repayment, and supporting the real estate market [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Overview - In the first four months of 2025, local government bonds issued totaled approximately 35,354 billion yuan, marking an 84% year-on-year increase, the highest in recent years [1][2]. - The bond issuance is categorized into new bonds and refinancing bonds, with new bonds accounting for about 15,000 billion yuan (54% increase) and refinancing bonds around 20,000 billion yuan (116% increase) [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Context - The surge in bond issuance is linked to the current macroeconomic environment, characterized by insufficient domestic demand and complex external conditions, necessitating local governments to raise funds to counter risks and stimulate economic growth [2][3]. - The issuance of refinancing bonds has doubled this year, primarily to replace hidden debts, with approximately 16,000 billion yuan of refinancing bonds used for debt repayment in the first four months [2][3]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The Ministry of Finance indicated that the average interest rate on the 20,000 billion yuan of debt replacement bonds issued in 2024 has decreased by over 2.5 percentage points, leading to a projected reduction in interest expenses by over 200 billion yuan over five years [4]. - The government aims to enhance the transparency of local debt and improve debt management, which is expected to free up more financial resources for local governments and stimulate economic activity [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts predict that the issuance of special bonds will accelerate, with local governments expected to complete their annual bond issuance by the end of June [8][9]. - The overall increase in local government bond issuance is anticipated to create space for new policies in the second half of the year, potentially including the issuance of additional government bonds to support employment and livelihoods [10].

宏观•要闻 《民营经济促进法》出台 4月30日，十四届全国人大常委会第十五次会议表决通过《民营经济促进法》出台，自2025年5月20日起 施行。民促法是我国首部专门关于民营经济发展的基础性法律，从"公平竞争""投资融资促进""科技创 新"，到"规范经营""服务保障""权益保护"，民促法对民营企业发展中的重点关切予以积极回应。 商务部新闻发言人就中美经贸对话磋商情况答记者问 5月2日，商务部回应中美经贸对话磋商情况称，中方注意到美方高层多次表态，表示愿与中方就关税问 题进行谈判。同时，美方近期通过相关方面多次主动向中方传递信息，希望与中方谈起来。对此，中方 正在进行评估。 蓝佛安：更加积极财政政策的科学设计与成功实践 5月1日出版的最新一期《求是》杂志，刊发财政部党组书记、部长蓝佛安的署名文章《更加积极财政政 策的科学设计与成功实践》，传递出积极财政政策设计的丰富内容和实施重点。文章指出，2024年出台 的一批有针对性的财政增量政策，是我国财政宏观调控史上的一次重大创新。具体包括一次性增加6万 亿元地方专项债务限额置换存量隐性债务，加力支持地方化解债务风险；研究发行特别国债支持国有大 型商业银行补充核心一级资本 ...

Group 1 - The "Private Economy Promotion Law" was passed, marking the first foundational law specifically for the development of the private economy in China, effective from May 20, 2025. It addresses key concerns such as "fair competition," "investment and financing promotion," "technological innovation," "business regulation," "service guarantee," and "rights protection" for private enterprises [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce noted that the U.S. has expressed willingness to negotiate on tariff issues, and China is currently evaluating this situation [2] Group 3 - A new proactive fiscal policy is set to be introduced in 2024, including a one-time increase of 6 trillion yuan in local special bond limits to replace hidden debts, issuance of special government bonds to support state-owned banks, and measures to stabilize the real estate market [3] Group 4 - In April, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone at 50.4% [4] Group 5 - The U.S. President announced a 100% tariff on all films produced abroad entering the U.S., indicating a significant trade policy shift [5] Group 6 - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000 in April, exceeding market expectations, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%. This led to a decrease in market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [6] Group 7 - Global risk assets saw a comprehensive rise, with the Hang Seng Tech Index leading with a 3.1% increase, indicating a recovery trend in Chinese assets [7] Group 8 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervened by purchasing 46.539 billion HKD in U.S. dollars to maintain the currency peg, marking its first intervention in five years [8] Group 9 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority attributed the recent strength of the Hong Kong dollar to increased demand related to stock investments and the appreciation of several regional currencies against the U.S. dollar [9] Group 10 - Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder meeting addressed trade policies and investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of global trade [10] Group 11 - New energy vehicle companies reported significant growth in April deliveries, with XPeng Motors seeing a 273% year-on-year increase [11] Group 12 - Travel booking platform Fliggy reported an over 80% increase in customized travel bookings for the May Day holiday, indicating a shift towards more personalized travel experiences [12] Group 13 - OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in June, reflecting a response to current market conditions [13] Group 14 - Upcoming new stock offerings include three companies, with specific details on their subscription codes [14] Group 15 - CITIC Securities indicated that risk appetite is expected to rise in May, focusing on themes related to technology and consumption [15] Group 16 - Zhongtai Securities highlighted that opportunities in May will be more pronounced in technology, consumption, and certain cyclical sectors, suggesting a focus on improving performance and policy support [16]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of local government bonds in China has significantly accelerated in 2023, driven by the need to stabilize the economy and manage risks amid complex external conditions, with a focus on funding major projects and addressing hidden debts [1][2][3] Group 1: Bond Issuance Trends - In the first four months of 2023, approximately 35,354 billion yuan of local government bonds were issued, marking an 84% year-on-year increase, the highest in recent years [1][2] - The issuance of new bonds reached about 15,000 billion yuan, a 54% increase year-on-year, while refinancing bonds surged to around 20,000 billion yuan, reflecting a 116% increase [2][5] - The rapid growth in bond issuance is attributed to local governments' reliance on debt to fund major projects and manage fiscal pressures [1][4] Group 2: Allocation of Funds - Of the 15,000 billion yuan in new bonds issued, approximately 12,000 billion yuan were special bonds, accounting for about 27% of the annual quota [5] - The allocation of special bond funds includes 31% for municipal and industrial park infrastructure, 20% for transportation infrastructure, and 9% for shantytown renovations [5][6] - The focus on infrastructure investment is seen as a key strategy to counterbalance the decline in real estate investment and stabilize the economy [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts predict that the issuance of special bonds will accelerate, with a focus on key areas to enhance economic growth and stability [6][7] - The central government is expected to consider increasing the issuance of government bonds to support employment and social welfare, particularly in response to external risks [7] - The overall strategy involves optimizing the structure of bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency to alleviate local financial pressures and support high-quality economic development [7]

热点 聚焦 蓝佛安：财政是国家治理的基础和重要支柱 01 5月1日出版的最新一期《求是》杂志，刊发财政部党组书记、部长蓝佛安的署名文 章《更加积极财政政策的科学设计与成功实践》，传递出积极财政政策设计的丰富 内容和实施重点。蓝佛安表示，财政是国家治理的基础和重要支柱。新时代以来， 面对错综复杂的国内外发展环境，习近平总书记高度重视财政工作，为财政工作定 调指向，亲自决策、亲自部署一系列重大财政政策，有力促进了经济稳定运行，维 护了社会大局稳定。新时代我国财政政策的设计与实践，是习近平经济思想在财政 领域的生动体现。在财政政策实践中，我们深刻体会到，坚持以习近平经济思想为 指引，坚决贯彻落实好党中央决策部署，我国经济发展就没有迈不过去的坎、闯不 过去的关，必须加力实施更加积极的财政政策，推动中国经济巨轮破浪前行。 《清华金融评论》观察 蓝佛安部长强调"财政是国家治理的基础和重要支柱"，这一表态体现了以下核心内涵 和政策方向：一是财政的全局性作用。财政不仅是经济调控工具，更是国家治理体系 的关键。此外财政是应对复杂挑战的"压舱石"。二是当前政策发力重点。财政政策可 提振民生与消费。财政可助力风险防范与改革深化。三 ...

2025.05. 05 本文字数：2241，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 美国近期单方加征关税，尤其是对中国加征畸高关税，对全球经济造成严重冲击。为了应对外部冲击 影响加大等情况，不久前中共中央政治局会议对经济工作作出部署，其中包括用好用足更加积极的财 政政策。 "财政部门要深入贯彻落实中央经济工作会议精神和今年《政府工作报告》部署，聚焦高质量发展关 键领域、薄弱环节，加强财税政策支持和资金保障，精准施策、持续用力，充分释放财政政策效 能。"蓝佛安称。 根据上述文章，财政部门下一步深入实施财政政策发力点，主要在七大方面，即大力提振消费；积极 扩大有效投资；加快培育发展新质生产力；加强对企业的纾困支持；加大保障和改善民生力度；支持 城乡区域融合发展和防范化解重点领域风险。 除了落实好已有更加积极财政政策外，财政增量政策也颇受关注。 蓝佛安还在文中强调，为应对可能出现的冲击，财政始终留有后手。政府有较大举债空间。 "充足的储备工具，巨大的政策空间，特别是在实践中形成的财政宏观调控科学方法论，是我们做好 当前财政工作的信心和底气所在。"蓝佛安说。 为应对潜在冲击，今年全国两会期间中国推出了力度更大 ...