Core Viewpoint - The recent FOMC meeting highlighted significant divisions among members, indicating ongoing challenges for the Fed's independence and a prevailing expectation for future rate cuts, which supports a long-term upward trend for gold and copper prices [2][6][8]. Precious Metals - Last week, COMEX gold rose by 1.05% and silver by 1.6%, while SHFE gold and silver fell by 0.73% and 0.89% respectively [4]. - The Fed's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was anticipated, leading to a slight pullback in precious metal prices as the market had already priced in the rate cut [8][26]. - Despite the cautious tone from Fed Chair Powell, the long-term drivers for gold remain strong due to a weak labor market, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over the dollar's credibility [8][53]. Copper Market - Copper prices experienced a technical pullback, with COMEX copper down by 0.38% and SHFE copper down by 1.52% [4]. - The FOMC meeting led to a retreat in copper prices as traders took profits, reflecting a cautious market sentiment ahead of the meeting [6][10]. - Despite being in a typical consumption peak season, copper demand has shown weakness, and while price declines may stimulate some buying, expectations for a robust demand recovery are tempered [12][53]. - COMEX copper inventories have increased, surpassing 310,000 tons, indicating potential supply pressures despite a forecasted rise in imports [12][13]. - The copper concentrate treatment charge (TC) index fell to -41.25 USD/ton, reflecting a cautious market with subdued trading activity [15]. Market Dynamics - The overall market sentiment for both precious metals and copper is influenced by the Fed's policy direction, with ongoing discussions about future rate cuts being a key factor in price movements [6][8][10]. - The interplay between supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the copper market, suggests that while prices may stabilize, significant upward movement is limited due to anticipated increases in imports and existing supply pressures [12][13].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) has seen a strong performance, rising 1.29% with a trading volume exceeding 36 million yuan, and its latest circulation scale is 1.261 billion yuan, making it the largest in the Shenzhen market for similar products [1] - The Shanghai Gold ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Gold (SHAU.SGE) and has a management fee of 0.25% and a custody fee of 0.05%, both lower than the average for similar products, and supports T+0 trading [1] - The recent surge in international gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, primarily driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with COMEX gold futures reaching 3744.0 USD/oz and domestic gold contracts reporting a year-to-date increase of over 35% [2] Group 2 - The long-term upward trend in the precious metals market is supported by liquidity from the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, diversified gold purchasing demand from global central banks, and heightened risk aversion due to geopolitical conflicts [3] - Technical analysis indicates that New York gold has support around 3550 USD and may test levels near 3800 USD, suggesting that pullbacks present buying opportunities within a long-term bull market for gold and silver [3] - The IPO market for resource companies in Hong Kong has been active since 2025, with several companies, including Zijin Mining International, expected to boost valuations in the precious metals sector as gold prices continue to rise [2]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 主席任期将于明年5月届满的鲍威尔，似乎也在他会后的讲话中，对米兰和白宫进行了有力的反击。 当被问及内部有无考虑过降息50个基点时，鲍威尔说，这"根本没有广泛的支持"。 尽管特朗普抱怨他行动太晚，但鲍威尔并不对今年大部分时间维持利率不变而后悔。鲍威尔说，"我认 为我们等待并观察关税、通胀和劳动力市场如何演变是正确的。" 前纽约联储主席杜德利在上周四的一篇文章中表示，"鲍威尔已牢牢掌控"了联邦公开市场委员会。他补 充说，那些倾向于维持利率不变的官员们遵从了美联储主席的意见，并同意降息。 与此同时，同为特朗普任命的鲍曼和沃勒，拒绝了特朗普要求的更大幅度的降息。杜德利写道，"他们 的行动展示了正直、对美联储使命的承诺以及维持央行独立性的重要性。" 华尔街的其他人也强调了这次的投票差距，特别是考虑到特朗普试图解雇美联储理事库克，以及他任命 的米兰并未辞去其白宫经济顾问的职务。 LPL Financial的首席经济学家Jeffrey Roach在上周的一份报告中表示，11比1的决定比预期的更能体现一 致性。 Federated Hermes的高级投资组合经理兼政府流动性团队主管Sus ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 9 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 长线看强 | 降息兑现，多头了结告一段落，中 | | | | | | 偏强 | | 长线上行趋势不变 | | 铜 | 2511 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 短线看强 | 降息落地，资金关注度下降，产业 | | | | | | 偏强 | | 旺季，产业支撑增强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点： ...

Group 1 - The overall market environment remains loose following the recent Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with a trend towards rate cuts anticipated [2] - Gold prices have shown strength after a rebound, with expectations for further increases if the 3700 level is broken [2] - The oil market continues to experience strong supply, with no significant impact from sanctions on Russian oil exports, leading to a persistent oversupply situation [4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has lowered its policy interest rate by 25 basis points, indicating potential further cuts to address signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market [4] - Lower borrowing costs are expected to boost oil demand, but the current market fundamentals suggest that this will not translate into increased demand for oil [4] - Technical analysis indicates a focus on resistance levels around 63.2/5 for oil, with expectations for a downward trend [4]

牛市来了还没上车？上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限 量发放！先到先得！ 上周，美股市场延续强势表现，美股三大指数周五收盘均创下历史新高。上周美联储将基准利率下 调25个基点，是自去年12月以来的首次降息。随后的新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔称此次举 措为"风险管理式降息"，市场当日一度出现了剧烈震荡。但周四、周五两个交易日，投资者乐观情 绪再度发酵，主要股指均平稳走高。 展望本周，经济数据方面，投资者最为关注的还是8月个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数，这是美联 储最青睐的通胀指标。市场将继续评估贸易政策是否推高了物价水平。 目前，美联储内部对后续降 息路径分歧仍然较大。此外，包括新任理事斯蒂芬·米兰在内的多位美联储高官将在本周密集发 声，为投资者提供更多货币政策路径相关的线索。 此外，据美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）报道，美国知名投资人沃伦·巴菲特旗下伯克希尔· 哈撒韦公司（简称"伯克希尔"）完全退出其持有的比亚迪股份，伯克希尔的一位发言人证实，其比 亚迪的全部持仓确实已被出售。 9月22日早间，比亚迪集团品牌及公关处总经理李云飞在社交平台发文回应称，2022年8月 ...

Group 1: International Gold Market - International gold prices experienced fluctuations, starting the week at $3644.34 per ounce, hitting a low of $3626.47, and reaching a high of $3707.00 before closing at $3684.59, resulting in a weekly gain of $40.25 or 1.1% [1] - The market showed a significant weekly volatility of $80.53, indicating active trading and investor interest [1] - The bullish outlook for gold remains strong, with expectations of further upward movement towards $3775 or higher, supported by the upper Bollinger Band [3] Group 2: Bond Market Insights - Major bond fund managers at firms like BlackRock and PGIM are maintaining specific trading strategies despite Federal Reserve policy shifts, indicating confidence in potential profits [2] - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has led to the largest annual gain in the U.S. Treasury market since the pandemic began, reinforcing the attractiveness of mid-term bonds as a volatility hedge [2] - There is a notable divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate paths, influencing some banks to adjust their positions in the bond market [2]

当地时间9月17日，金融界被一则重磅消息刷屏：美联储在这一天宣布降息25个基点。 这是自2024年12月以来，美联储首次降息。这次降息，也是美国经济形势变化的一个重要信号。 从数据上看，美国经济增长放缓的趋势愈发明显。 2025年一季度，美国GDP意外收缩0.5%，净出口对增长的拖累达4.61个百分点，创下2020年疫情以来最显著的季度下滑。 就业市场的情况同样不乐观，8月的失业率一路往上走，飙到了4.3%，是美国近四年里最高的水平。新增的就业岗位数量，也已经连着三个月没达到市场预 期了，找工作的难度肉眼可见地增加。 毕竟，作为特朗普亲自提名的心腹，被安插在美联储主要就是为了帮特朗普办事。 而特朗普一直盼着的是让美联储"大幅降息"，试图快速拉动经济，为自己政绩加分。 从这次投票结果看，鲍威尔还算维持住了美联储表面的团结。 值得一提的是，美联储也给出了后续的利率调整预期：按照当前规划，今年年底前还会有累计 50 个基点的降息空间，而接下来的两年里，预计每年也会分 别下调 25 个基点的利率。 但米兰估计觉得，既然大家都预期未来要大幅降息，那不如一步到位。 不过，但美联储主席鲍威尔担心一下子降息太多，通胀会失控。 ...

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [4][5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to support metal prices in the short term, with a structural improvement in demand anticipated during the "golden September and silver October" period in China [2][3]. - The supply disruptions in copper due to the ongoing closure of the Grasberg mine in Indonesia are contributing to a tightening market, which is expected to drive prices higher [2][3]. - The report is optimistic about cobalt and lithium prices due to supply constraints and increasing demand, particularly in the context of the upcoming holiday season and energy storage needs [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that industrial metal prices are expected to rise due to the combination of U.S. monetary easing and seasonal demand in China. The SMM copper concentrate import index has shown a slight increase, indicating a tightening supply situation [2][3]. - Aluminum production has seen a slight increase, with downstream demand expected to rise as the holiday season approaches. However, there has been a recent accumulation of aluminum inventory [2][3][4]. Energy Metals - The report anticipates a significant increase in cobalt prices due to potential extensions of export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, alongside strong demand for lithium driven by seasonal purchasing and energy storage needs [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that both cobalt and lithium markets are experiencing strong demand growth, with expectations for price increases in the near term [3]. Precious Metals - Following the Fed's interest rate cut, the report expresses a bullish outlook on precious metals, particularly gold, which is expected to benefit from geopolitical tensions and increased central bank purchases [4][5]. - The report highlights that the recent increase in SPDR gold holdings indicates a growing interest from overseas investors, further supporting the bullish sentiment for gold prices [4][5]. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, based on their strong market positions and growth potential [4][5].