美国管理和预算局主任Vought：特朗普对美联储的唯一要求就是降息。 ...

新华财经上海7月26日电（葛佳明） 本周（7月21日-7月26日）国际贸易局势的不确定性逐步下降，全球央行政策则趋于谨慎调整，欧洲央行暂停连续降 息。全球风险偏好回升之际，多数国家股指走高，美元震荡走弱，黄金走强后回落，国内商品走势则随着"反内卷"政策信号持续释放强势上行。 美股方面，标普500指数和纳斯达克指数持续刷新历史高位，其中，标普500指数收报6388.64点，本周累计上涨1.46%；道琼斯工业平均指数报44901.92点， 本周累涨1.26%；纳斯达克指数报21108.32点，本周累涨1.02%；罗素2000指数报2261.07点，本周累涨0.94%。 美股"科技股七巨头"多数上涨，其中，谷歌因第二季度财报营收和净利润超预期，本周累计上涨4.39%，亚马逊全周累涨2.35%，苹果全周累计涨1.28%， Meta全周累涨1.19%，英伟达涨幅达0.63%，微软全周微涨0.72%。特斯拉则因营收和净利润大幅下跌，全周累计下挫4.12%。 欧洲股市方面，欧洲STOXX 600指数全周累计涨0.5%；德国DAX 30指数本周累计下跌0.30%，法国CAC 40指数本周累涨0.15%；英国富时100指数本周 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's unprecedented visit to the Federal Reserve, highlighting the tension between the government and the central bank regarding budget overruns and the request for interest rate cuts [2][3][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Budget Issues - The Federal Reserve is facing a lawsuit over its renovation budget, which was reported to be $1.9 billion but has already exceeded $2.5 billion [3][5]. - The renovations include luxurious furnishings and materials, raising concerns about government spending amid strict budget controls [5][6]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Interest Rates - President Trump, under pressure from his party and public dissatisfaction, is pushing for interest rate cuts to stabilize the economy and improve his approval ratings [8][19]. - The President's previous tax increases on various countries have led to rising costs for American consumers, contributing to public discontent [9][14][15]. Group 3: Independence of the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve operates independently from the government, and its chairman has stated that interest rate decisions are based solely on inflation rates, not political pressure [19].

特朗普又出手了。这次，他不是冲着中国或者欧洲，而是直接冲着美联储和鲍威尔下了狠手。 一位现任美国总统，亲自跑到美联储，用纸条质问对方翻修"花了多少钱"，这种场面，真不是每天都能看到。 美联储总部的两栋历史建筑，在特朗普的眼里，成了天价装修现场。特朗普直接指出花费已经从25亿美元飙到"看起来大约是31亿美元，涨了很多"。鲍威尔 急着澄清，说总统的小纸条"把第三栋也算进去了"，数据有点夸大。 在特朗普看来，只有鲍威尔愿意更快更多地降息，房贷、国债、美国经济的各种成本才能一起"跳水"。他一口咬定鲍威尔成了自己"政治对手"的帮手， 还"成全了"美国的那些民主党人。 这话听着像是抱怨，实际却是警告。他拿欧洲等国家当对照，说"别人都开始降息了"，美国居然按兵不动。特朗普还把账算得明明白白："要是直接降息三 个百分点，咱们每年省下超过1万亿美元。"听着像做生意的账本，可这回账本里的数字够刺激。 问题在于，美联储并不急着听特朗普的话。 虽然市场各种"风向"苗头都指向美联储可能会进一步降息，但鲍威尔当前的态度就是——下周政策会议，利率还得按兵不动。目前美联储大佬们的内部讨 论，是最早也要拖到9月才考虑降息。 这让特朗普很不舒服 ...

来源丨央视新闻 编辑丨金珊 日本国内经济问题仍然待解 第三次退出联合国教科文组织，美国意欲何为？ 黄金、比特币跳水，特朗普施压鲍威尔降息 SFC 21君荐读 伊朗司法机构信息中心表示，26日上午，不明身份的武装人员袭击了扎黑丹司法机构，目前大 楼内的冲突已经结束。另据伊朗媒体消息，恐怖组织"正义军"宣布对本次袭击事件负责。媒体 消息称，有三名袭击者已被打死。 据央视新闻报道，记者当地时间7月26日获悉，伊朗革命卫队公共关系部门表示， 该国东南部 锡斯坦-俾路支斯坦省首府扎黑丹市司法机构遭袭事件已造成6人死亡、20人受伤，死伤者大多 是普通民众 。 ...

Core Points - Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, citing the heavy burden of national debt interest payments, which amount to $1.2 trillion annually [1][3] - The current interest rate of 4.5% could be reduced to 1%, potentially saving the government around $1 trillion each year, which could help address the fiscal deficit caused by Trump's policies [1] - Powell is cautious about lowering rates due to the current core inflation rate of 2.8% and rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions [1][3] Group 1 - Trump criticized the Federal Reserve's renovation budget, which escalated from an initial $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion, labeling it as a waste of taxpayer money [3] - He has employed a strategy of public criticism followed by calls for investigation, reminiscent of his past political tactics [3] - Powell's position is legally protected, as the President cannot remove the Fed Chair without evidence of misconduct, and Powell's term lasts until 2028 [5] Group 2 - Wall Street supports Powell, with JPMorgan's CEO stating that attacking him undermines market confidence, and Goldman Sachs warning of potential market volatility if Trump's policies are enforced [5] - The Treasury Secretary publicly supports Trump but is privately exploring potential successors for Powell, indicating internal tensions [5] - Recent documents suggest a 78% probability of a rate cut in September, indicating a subtle shift in Powell's policy stance despite his public resistance [5] Group 3 - Historical parallels are drawn to Nixon's pressure on the Fed, which led to significant inflation, highlighting the risks of politicizing monetary policy [7] - Concerns are raised about the integrity of the U.S. financial system if the Fed is treated as a political tool, with recent actions by other countries signaling a lack of confidence in U.S. debt [7] - Global investors are closely monitoring the situation, questioning whether the U.S. will risk its financial system for personal political agendas [9]

美东时间7月25日周五，据媒体报道，特朗普表示，他相信美联储会开始降息。特朗普说，他绝不会支 持弱势美元，可同时，他又大力宣扬美元汇率走低会带来的经济效益、尤其是对美国制造业的效益，传 递出矛盾的信号。 本周五，在回答记者关于美元的问题时，特朗普说： "我永远不会说我喜欢低迷的货币。我喜欢强势美元，但弱势美元能让你赚得盆满钵满。" 被问及是否担心美元下跌时，特朗普回答他喜欢强势美元，补充说，他并没有因为担心美元走软而睡不 着觉。 在首次亲临美联储总部 "上门"催促降息 后，美国总统特朗普表现得对降息有信心。特朗普说他支持美元 强势，但指出，强美元限制了美国的产品销售。 就利率和鲍威尔进行了"非常好"的会谈 特朗普称，他周四与美联储主席鲍威尔进行了良好的会谈，他感觉，鲍威尔可能准备降低利率，还说鲍 威尔是一个"非常好的人"。 "我认为我们就利率进行一场非常好的会谈。鲍威尔对我……非常肯定地表示，国家现在状况良好。我 的意思是，我认为他会开始建议降息。" 对于特朗普周四访问美联储一事， 美联储在周五的声明中表示： 美联储很荣幸昨天欢迎总统参观我们历史悠久的总部。我们很高兴有机会与他以及参议员分享翻修工 程的进展， ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the apparent prosperity of the U.S. economy, underlying structural vulnerabilities are becoming increasingly evident, particularly in the labor market and inflation dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The labor market remains robust, with nearly 90% of job growth in recent years concentrated in government, leisure and hospitality, and healthcare/education sectors, while key growth sectors like technology, manufacturing, construction, and professional services are slowing down [3]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rates in the short term, with market expectations for a potential rate cut in December if economic data weakens significantly [2][3]. Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is preparing for a potential exit from high interest rate policies, although it is not anticipated to cut rates on July 30, especially with active job creation and concerns over tariffs potentially driving prices up [2]. - Inflation signals are expected to emerge between July and September, with tariffs likely impacting CPI data, potentially leading to a month-on-month increase of 0.4% to 0.5% [2]. Group 3: Currency and Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar is expected to remain strong in the short term, influenced by the Federal Reserve's stance and upcoming employment data, with potential upward movements against low-yield currencies [4][5]. - If the labor market shows resilience, the USD/JPY pair could rise to 150, while the USD/CHF may increase to 0.81, depending on risk appetite and ongoing arbitrage trading [4].

纳比乌林娜还透露，俄罗斯央行已将今年和明年的俄罗斯石油价格预期下调至每桶55美元。 俄罗斯央行降息后，卢布兑美元汇率持续走弱。汇率方面，纳比乌林娜表示，高利率维持了卢布资产的 吸引力，结合进口需求放缓，确保了卢布汇率的稳定。 俄罗斯央行表示，通胀压力正在以快于预期的速度下降，国内需求增长也在放缓，劳动力市场也出现一 些软化迹象，尽管失业率处于历史低位，但企业用工短缺现象正在减少。 俄罗斯央行预计，2025年通胀将降至6.0%-7.0%，并在2026年回到4.0%的目标水平。尽管通胀已出现下 行逆转，但俄罗斯央行认为要将通胀可持续地降至2026年的4%目标，还需要维持紧缩的货币政策。 分析师预计，2026年俄罗斯央行平均关键利率可能会降至12.0%至13.0%的区间。 俄罗斯央行行长纳比乌林娜在降息后表示，未来每次会议都可能降息，幅度可能在100至200个基点之 间，但也可能暂停。她强调，未来的降息路径将取决于通胀稳定的程度、通胀预期的水平以及是否出现 新的通胀冲击。 纳比乌林娜指出，总体来看通胀上行风险仍占主导，但俄罗斯央行也会考虑信贷和需求降温快于预期的 下行风险。而由于欧佩克+政策的变化，预计原油出口复苏 ...

特朗普认为鲍威尔可能已准备好降息。 ...