Group 1 - In July 2025, Guangdong's Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month; month-on-month, it shifted from a decrease of 0.2% to an increase of 0.5% [1] - From January to July 2025, the average CPI in Guangdong fell by 0.4% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - In July 2025, Guangdong's Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.0% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month; month-on-month, it fell by 0.2%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points [1] - The Industrial Producer Purchase Price Index (IPI) in Guangdong decreased by 4.1% year-on-year and fell by 0.3% month-on-month in July 2025 [1] - From January to July 2025, the average PPI in Guangdong decreased by 1.4%, while the IPI fell by 2.8% [1]

Economic Indicators - In July, China's CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a 0.1% decline from the previous month, and the year-on-year core CPI rose by 0.8%, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [3] - The PPI in July decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the first contraction since March [3] Agricultural Sector - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that China's pork production and consumption account for about 60% of total meat consumption, and measures will be taken to adjust the breeding of approximately 1 million sows to prevent price volatility [3] Small and Medium Enterprises - The China Small and Medium Enterprises Development Index (SMEDI) for July remained stable at 89.0, with significant increases in sectors such as construction, transportation, real estate, and information technology [3] Trade and Tariffs - The U.S. trade-weighted average tariff rate has risen to 20.11%, significantly higher than the 2.44% at the beginning of the year, indicating a substantial increase in trade barriers [5] - The World Trade Organization has downgraded the global goods trade growth forecast for 2026 from 2.5% to 1.8%, citing recent tariff adjustments as a negative influence on global trade prospects [5] International Relations - European leaders emphasized that any diplomatic solution regarding the Ukraine crisis must protect the significant security interests of Europe and Ukraine [5] - Discussions are ongoing between Qatar and the U.S. regarding a comprehensive ceasefire agreement for the Gaza conflict, expected to be submitted for discussion soon [5]

Group 1 - The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month in July, reversing a previous decline of 0.1%, while year-on-year it remained flat [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [3] - The producer price index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was narrower than the previous month, indicating a potential stabilization in prices [2][3] Group 2 - Service prices increased by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the CPI rise, while industrial consumer goods prices, excluding energy, also saw a 0.2% increase [2] - The decline in food prices, down 1.6% year-on-year, was a major factor in keeping the year-on-year CPI unchanged [2] - The improvement in supply-demand relationships in certain industries is attributed to ongoing macroeconomic policies and consumer demand initiatives [4] Group 3 - Recent months have shown a stabilization in PPI declines, reflecting effective policy measures and structural adjustments in the industry [5] - The concept of "anti-involution" is expected to be a key focus for policies in the second half of the year, aiming to optimize resource allocation and improve industry efficiency [5] - The sustainability of price recovery remains uncertain and is contingent on effective policy execution and coordination [5]

Core Viewpoints - The weak performance of PPI is attributed to two "dark lines": the timing of statistics and low capacity utilization in the mid and downstream sectors [2][8][69] - In July, PPI continued to bottom out, with a month-on-month decline of 0.2% and a year-on-year rate of -3.6%, which was below market expectations [2][8][69] - The rise in commodity prices did not fully reflect in the PPI due to the timing of price surveys, which did not capture late-month price increases [2][8][69] PPI Analysis - The PPI's month-on-month decline was influenced by a significant drag from mid and downstream prices, which contributed to a -0.3% impact on PPI [2][13][69] - The PPI performance was also affected by tariffs, with industries heavily reliant on exports experiencing downward price pressure [2][13][69] - High-frequency data showed a divergence from PPI trends, with coal and steel prices recovering, while coal mining and black metal processing remained negative [2][8][69] CPI Analysis - In July, the core CPI rose to its highest level in a year and a half, driven by demand recovery and the end of commodity subsidies [3][20][70] - The CPI's month-on-month increase of 0.4% was slightly above the average since 2017, with core CPI rising 0.8% year-on-year [3][20][70] - The demand for core services improved due to summer travel, although rental prices remained weak [3][28][70] Food Prices Impact - Food prices were weak, constraining the CPI's recovery, with food CPI down 1.6% year-on-year, a decline that expanded by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month [4][33][71] - Fresh vegetable prices fell significantly, contributing to the downward pressure on CPI [4][33][71] - The supply of pork continued to rise, leading to lower pork prices, which also impacted the overall food CPI [4][34][71] Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to boost commodity prices, but excess supply in the mid and downstream sectors may limit the transmission of upstream price increases [4][39][71] - The forecast suggests that inflation will remain weak throughout the year, with limited recovery in both PPI and CPI due to the current supply-demand dynamics [4][39][71] - Core commodity CPI may be suppressed by downstream PPI, and agricultural supply is expected to remain ample, leading to moderate improvements in CPI [4][39][71]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July 2025, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month and remained flat year-on-year at 0.0% due to significant pressure from food prices[2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose to 0.8%, the highest in 17 months, indicating effective domestic demand policies[2] - Vegetable prices saw a significant decline due to high base effects from the previous year, while pork prices continued to drop due to weak terminal demand[2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In July 2025, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and by 0.2% month-on-month, marking a continued decline in the mining and raw material processing industries[2] - The coal mining and oil extraction sectors were the largest contributors to the PPI decline, with mining industries showing a year-on-year drop of 14.0%[2] - The report anticipates a slight recovery in PPI in August, projecting a year-on-year rate around -3%, influenced by high base effects from the previous year[2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The report suggests that while CPI may rise above 0 in August, energy prices remain a significant constraint on overall inflation recovery[2] - The ongoing weak demand in the mid and downstream sectors is expected to limit the positive impact of anti-involution policies on PPI[2] - The effectiveness of domestic policies in stimulating demand will be crucial for any significant recovery in PPI throughout the year[2]

Group 1: CPI and PPI Performance - July CPI year-on-year growth remained at 0%, against expectations of -0.1% and a previous value of +0.1%[3] - July PPI year-on-year remained at -3.6%, matching the previous value and slightly worse than the expected -3.4%[3] - Core CPI in July increased by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month above seasonal levels[6] Group 2: Price Trends - Food CPI month-on-month decline narrowed, with a 0.2% increase to -0.2%[5] - Prices of fresh vegetables and pork rebounded, with fresh vegetable CPI increasing by 0.6% month-on-month to +1.3%[16] - Physical consumption prices outperformed service consumption prices, with non-food CPI rising by 0.5% month-on-month[6] Group 3: Future Inflation Predictions - August CPI is expected to decline year-on-year to around -0.3%, with a month-on-month increase of approximately 0.1%[30] - PPI is anticipated to rise in August, with projections indicating a year-on-year increase due to base effects and expectations of price recovery[31] - The overall average CPI for 2025 is projected to be around 0% year-on-year, while PPI is expected to average between -2% and -3%[33] Group 4: Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected policy changes and significant fluctuations in commodity prices[36]

Inflation Data Summary - On August 9, the National Bureau of Statistics released July inflation data: CPI year-on-year at 0%, previous value 0.1%, expected -0.1%, month-on-month 0.4%; PPI year-on-year at -3.6%, previous value -3.6%, expected -3.4%, month-on-month -0.2%[8]. - The weak PPI performance is attributed to low capacity utilization in mid and downstream sectors, which hinders price transmission from upstream to downstream[1][2][4]. - July PPI continued to decline, with a month-on-month change of -0.2%, not meeting market expectations of -3.4%[9][13]. - The contribution of commodity prices to PPI was estimated at 0.1% month-on-month, despite some recovery in coal and steel prices[1][9]. CPI Insights - Core CPI in July rose to its highest level in 1.5 years, driven by demand recovery and the end of commodity subsidies, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%[21]. - Food CPI decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, with fresh vegetable prices dropping by 7.6% and fresh fruit prices increasing by 2.8%[30][43]. - The core service CPI remained stable at 0.5% year-on-year, with significant increases in travel-related costs, such as airfares rising by 17.9% month-on-month[27]. Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to boost commodity prices, but excess supply in mid and downstream sectors may limit price transmission from upstream, keeping inflation weak throughout the year[4][33]. - Core commodity CPI may remain subdued due to pressure from downstream PPI and abundant agricultural supply, leading to only moderate improvements in CPI[4][33].

Inflation Data Summary - In July 2025, the CPI year-on-year changed from a 0.1% increase to flat, outperforming the Wind consensus expectation of -0.12%[2] - The food price index saw a year-on-year decline of 1.6%, while non-food prices increased by 0.3%[2] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.4%, slightly above the ten-year average increase of 0.34%[2] Food Price Dynamics - The year-on-year decline in fresh vegetable prices expanded to 7.6%, significantly impacting the CPI[2] - Pork prices saw a year-on-year decline of 9.5%, while beef prices increased by 3.6%[2] - The average wholesale price of 28 monitored vegetables continued to decline year-on-year in early August 2025[2] Non-Food Price Trends - Non-food prices increased by 0.3% year-on-year, with durable goods prices rising due to the end of promotional activities[3] - Transportation fuel prices decreased by 9% year-on-year, influenced by international oil price fluctuations[3] - Service prices rose by 0.5% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to the previous month[3] PPI Insights - The PPI year-on-year decline remained at -3.6%, with production materials down 4.3% and living materials down 1.6%[4] - The PPI month-on-month decreased by 0.2%, with production materials showing a smaller decline than living materials[4] - The price of oil and gas extraction increased by 3.0%, while electronic equipment manufacturing prices fell by 0.4%[4] Future Outlook - CPI is expected to remain stable in August 2025, with food CPI likely to continue its downward trend due to high base effects from the previous year[5] - PPI may show a narrowing year-on-year decline in August, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics in certain industries[5] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation and unexpected fluctuations in international commodity prices[5]

文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 8月9日，国家统计局公布7月通胀数据，CPI同比0%、前值0.1%、预期-0.1%、环比0.4%；PPI同 比-3.6%、前值-3.6%、预期-3.4%、环比-0.2%。 核心观点：统计时点及中下游产能利用率偏低是PPI表现偏弱的两条"暗线"。 7月PPI继续磨底，大宗价格对PPI环比拉动虽转正，但统计上未囊括下旬的涨价情况，因而中上游PPI表 现不及高频数据。 PPI为每月5日、20日调查单价的简单平均值，而反内卷带动的涨价集中于下旬，因此 本月PPI（环比-0.2%）不及预期。高频数据也与PPI走势分化，7月煤、钢价格回升，而煤炭采选 （-1.5%）、黑色压延（-0.3%）环比仍为负。相比之下，油价、铜价对本月PPI贡献为正， 测算大宗商品 价格拉动PPI环比0.1%。 同时中下游价格对PPI拖累仍较大，也令7月PPI表现低于市场预期。 与2016年上游涨价向下游传导不同 的是，本轮供给过剩更多在中下游，导致上游涨价向下游传导受阻。如石化链下游PPI跌幅大于上游价格 理论传导幅度；机械设备、消费下游亦有类似特征， 测算7月中下游拖累PPI环比-0 ...

Inflation Data Summary - July CPI decreased by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 0.0%, primarily due to weak food prices[3] - Core CPI improved for the third consecutive month, rising by 0.1 percentage points to 0.8%, driven by higher gold prices and strong service consumption[3] - July PPI remained at a near 23-month low, with a year-on-year decline of -3.6%[3] Food Prices Impact - July food CPI fell by 0.2% month-on-month, significantly below seasonal levels by 0.9 percentage points[4] - Year-on-year food CPI dropped by 1.6%, influenced by a high base from the previous year[4] - Fresh vegetable and meat prices increased by 1.3% and 0.4% month-on-month, respectively, but were still below seasonal averages[4] Core CPI Drivers - Service prices remained stable at 0.5% year-on-year, with significant increases in travel-related costs: airfares up 17.9%, hotel stays up 6.9%[5] - Gold and platinum jewelry prices surged by 37.1% and 27.3% year-on-year, respectively, due to rising gold prices[5] - Transportation fuel prices saw a reduced decline of 1.8 percentage points to -9.0% year-on-year[5] PPI Trends - PPI's month-on-month decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points, reflecting the impact of "anti-involution" measures[6] - International oil prices increased, contributing to a 3.0% rise in oil and gas extraction month-on-month[6] - Investment demand remains weak, limiting PPI recovery to a gradual improvement[6]