中信建投（601066）认为，会议前，美债、美元、黄金、美股，均对本月降息25bp有充分定价，本次决 策本身的意义已经不大，市场的关注点在后续降息路径的指引之上。后续来看，美国经济在2026年下行 风险或高于上行风险，实际降息次数可能会更多。国际市场来看，中信建投认为后续整体中性，市场短 期交易空间已经受限。但中期来看，济软着陆叠加联储降息，美债获益基本面下行，美股获益流动性， 均仍是重要利好。相对而言，美元和商品可能偏弱，黄金逻辑与降息关系已不密切，需关注其他地缘等 逻辑。国内市场来看，中信建投认为美联储降息整体仍是正面利好。具体来看，后续可关注三大交易线 索：一是美联储降息美元偏弱，人民币可能继续升值，寻找获益汇率走强的A股板块；二是海外宽松 下，国内政策期待或提升，围绕政策交易的热度可能上升；三是美元流动性宽松，港股的敏感度更高， 可能具有相对优势。 NO.3 中信证券：看好白酒行业底部配置机会 中信证券研报称，白酒行业正在筑底，考虑到当前库存、价格、政策影响、消费场景恢复、上市公司公 布报表等众多因素，判断本轮行业基本面底有望出现在2025三季度，预计今年三季度是行业动销、价 格、市场信心压力最大的阶 ...

北京时间9月18日，美联储宣布降息25个基点，时隔9个月后重启降息。市场预期，国内也存在进一步降 息、降准的空间，这也将使得银行未来息差承压。 近期，也有多家银行股东、董监高宣布出手增持自家银行股票。多家银行在公告中表示，增持计划是基 于对银行长期投资价值的认可，支持银行长期发展。 7月11日以来，银行板块整体呈阶段性下行趋势。以涨势最具代表性的农行为例，该银行股价创下7.55 元的历史新高后，目前已回落至6.7元附近。 每年7月，银行股迎来集中分红期，一些套利资金"分红即走"使得股价短线承压。从信贷需求来看，7-8 月社融、信贷数据低于预期，实体经济融资意愿偏弱，银行资产端扩张动力不足。 增持计划对股价有所提振。截至19日午盘收盘，刚刚完成高管增持的齐鲁银行（601665.AH）领涨，涨 幅超2.5%。 责任编辑：王馨茹 ...

Group 1 - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently at 1.3794, showing a slight decline of 0.03%, after a previous increase of 0.17% to close at 1.3795 [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has lowered the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, citing a softening labor market as a reason for this "risk management" rate cut [1] - The Bank of Canada also reduced its rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, indicating a willingness to maintain an accommodative stance due to weak employment and reduced exports [1] Group 2 - The USD/CAD exchange rate has recently retreated from a peak of 1.3924 to a low of 1.3725, establishing a support level around 1.3722 [2] - A trading range has been identified between 1.3720 and 1.3900, with the current position indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears [2] - Key support levels to watch include 1.3722/1.3725 and 1.3539, while resistance levels are at 1.3811, 1.3899, and 1.3924 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent interest rate cut does not signify the end of rate cuts, as the median forecast indicates two more cuts in 2025, which will continue to support the Hong Kong stock market and its technology sector [1] - The current economic situation in the U.S. shows a weak job market but relatively high inflation, leading the market to define this rate cut as a "preemptive cut," which is different from a "rescue cut" that occurs in deep economic downturns [1] - Historically, preemptive rate cuts have been beneficial for stock assets, with the Hong Kong stock market showing greater elasticity, particularly in the technology sector, which is expected to have significant upside potential [1] Group 2 - The influx of foreign capital is a significant driver for the Hong Kong technology sector, alongside strong internal drivers such as the cooling competition in industries like food delivery and automotive [1] - The narrative surrounding AI has become a central focus for the market, providing a solid foundation for the future growth of the Hong Kong technology sector [1] - Relevant ETFs include the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101), which covers the entire technology industry chain, and the Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330), which focuses on leading internet companies [1]

同时，施政报告将加速北部都会区的发展。新政策公布更有弹性土地收地和交换模式，该行认为北部都 会区加快开发将有助恒地在该地区的庞大农地土地储备变现。该公司拥有约4190万平方英尺的农地土地 储备，历史平均成本料每平方英尺277港元，北部都会区加速，或将为公司未来几年带来可观的潜在收 益、盈利和现金流。 基于上述因素，该行相信利率进一步下行后，公司核心业务短期风险已下降，基于降息带来的市场资金 流动性、资产价值提升预期、北部都会区农地可能加速变现的影响，调高对公司资产净值预测至每股 65.4港元，并按折让50%计算出目标价，同时轻微上调2025-2027年利润预测以反映利息支出减少的影 响。 美联储9月17日宣布下调基准利率25个基点。根据机构共识预测，美联储将在2025年第4季再降息2次， 2026年至2027年第1季再降息3次，总计将进一步降息125个基点。该行认为，降息进程将在2025年剩余 时间和2026年持续，这将有利于提振香港房地产公司：1)降低利息支出;2)进一步激活房地产市场，促进 房地产开发板块的销售和利润率回升;3)投资物业组合的潜在资产增值。 智通财经APP获悉，交银国际发布研报称，上调恒基 ...

美联储9月17日宣布下调基准利率25个基点。根据机构共识预测，美联储将在2025年第4季再降息2次， 2026年至2027年第1季再降息3次，总计将进一步降息125个基点。该行认为，降息进程将在2025年剩余 时间和2026年持续，这将有利于提振香港房地产公司：1)降低利息支出;2)进一步激活房地产市场，促进 房地产开发板块的销售和利润率回升;3)投资物业组合的潜在资产增值。 基于上述因素，该行相信利率进一步下行后，公司核心业务短期风险已下降，基于降息带来的市场资金 流动性、资产价值提升预期、北部都会区农地可能加速变现的影响，调高对公司资产净值预测至每股 65.4港元，并按折让50%计算出目标价，同时轻微上调2025-2027年利润预测以反映利息支出减少的影 响。 交银国际发布研报称，上调恒基地产(00012)目标价26.2%，从25.9港元升至32.68港元，上调评级至"买 入"。 同时，施政报告将加速北部都会区的发展。新政策公布更有弹性土地收地和交换模式，该行认为北部都 会区加快开发将有助恒地在该地区的庞大农地土地储备变现。该公司拥有约4190万平方英尺的农地土地 储备，历史平均成本料每平方英尺277港元 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of England maintained the policy interest rate at 4.00%, aligning with market expectations, with a voting outcome of 7 in favor and 2 against [2][5] - The forward guidance indicates that future rate cuts will depend on the persistence of declining inflation trends [3][6] - The pace of quantitative tightening was reduced from £100 billion to £70 billion, with unanimous support from seven members [4][6] Group 2 - The GBP/USD exchange rate showed initial gains but subsequently fell, currently reported at 1.3591, reflecting market reactions to the Bank of England's decisions [5] - Market expectations remain unchanged, with traders anticipating a 6 basis point rate cut this year and a total of 45 basis points by the end of 2026 [5] - The Bank of England's cautious stance on future rate cuts is influenced by rising concerns over inflation, which has led to reduced bets on imminent rate reductions [6]

降息利多美股 百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，从历史走势看，美联储降息通常有利于改善市场流动性、提振风险偏好，并推动利 率中枢下移，利好美股。理论上，降息会通过降低企业借贷成本、增加市场流动性、刺激经济活动、提升资产估值、提振市场 信心这五大路径对美股产生影响。 自8月初以来，美国三大股指纷纷摆脱调整态势，不断刷新高点。本轮上涨与市场对美联储将在9月启动降息的预期高度吻合， 基本上可以认为是对降息的提前反应。截至9月10日，美联储观察工具显示，市场预计美联储9月降息25个基点的概率为93%， 降息50个基点的概率为7%。至于10月议息会议，累计降息25、50和75个基点的概率分别为21.4%、73.2%和5.4%。在降息几乎已 经成为定局的背景下，流动性环境趋于宽松，预计将为美股市场注入新一轮动力。 市场完全定价美联储9月降息 美国8月非农就业人数仅增加2.2万人，较7月修正后的7.9万大幅下降，远不及市场预期；失业率较上月上升0.1个百分点至 4.3%，创下近四年以来的新高。就业市场依然处于边际放缓状态，由原先的平稳状态转向疲软。就业数据降温可能迫使美联储 启动降息。回顾2024年9月，类似就业走弱的 ...

Report Summary 1. Overall Market Conditions - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, marking the largest decline in nearly four years [1]. - The Bank of England decided to keep interest rates unchanged but remained cautious about further rate cuts this year due to growing concerns about inflation rebound [1]. - Overseas investors' holdings of US Treasuries reached a new high in July, with Japan's holdings hitting a more than one - year high, China's hitting a more than sixteen - year low, and Canada's holdings decreasing sharply by $57.1 billion [1]. 2. Key Investment Products Analysis Stock Index - US stock indexes rose, while the domestic stock index fluctuated. The trading volume on the previous trading day was 3.17 trillion yuan. On September 17, the margin trading balance increased by 12.711 billion yuan to 23.88522 trillion yuan [2][11]. - The market is in a high - level consolidation phase after a long - term rise. The strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][11]. Gold - After the Fed's interest rate decision, gold and silver prices declined. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, in line with market expectations. The dot - plot shows that the Fed expects to cut rates by 25 - 50 basis points this year and below 3.5% next year [3][19]. - US economic data shows a mixed picture. Retail sales in August were strong, but employment data was weak. The long - term drivers for gold are clear, but short - term adjustments may occur due to profit - taking [3][19]. Copper - Copper prices rose 0.1% at night. The supply of concentrates remains tight, but smelting output continues to grow. Multiple factors are intertwined, and copper prices may fluctuate within a range [4][20]. 3. Daily News Highlights International News - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 13 was 231,000, lower than the expected 240,000 [5][6]. Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce announced measures to expand the scope of unilateral visa - free countries, promote service exports, and implement tax - refund policies. The Ministry of Culture and Tourism launched a consumption plan and issued over 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies [7]. Industry News - The research paper on the DeepSeek - R1 inference model co - completed by the DeepSeek team and Liang Wenfeng was published on the cover of Nature, filling the gap of mainstream large - language models without independent review [8]. 4. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Similar to the previous analysis, it is in a high - level consolidation phase, with different index characteristics [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fell slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond rising to 1.7825%. The central bank increased net investment, but the money market tightened. It is recommended to wait and see [12][13]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices fell slightly at night. The Fed's rate cut may boost oil demand but also raises concerns about the economy. Global oil inventories have increased for six consecutive months [14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell 0.98% at night. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants increased, while the overall methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly. Coastal inventories are at a high level, and the short - term outlook is bearish [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fell on Thursday. Supply has increased, and demand has improved seasonally. The short - term decline is expected to be limited, and the market may fluctuate [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin prices fell. The fundamentals are mainly driven by supply and demand. After continuous decline, the market may continue to fluctuate in a low - level range [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures declined. The market is in the process of inventory digestion, and the focus is on the supply - side reduction effect [18]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Similar to the gold analysis, prices fell after the Fed's decision. Long - term drivers are clear, but short - term adjustments may occur [19]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose slightly at night. Multiple factors are intertwined, and prices may fluctuate within a range [4][20]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose 0.09% at night. The processing fee for zinc concentrates has increased, and the short - term supply may be in surplus. Prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has increased slightly, while demand shows a mixed picture. The futures price may be volatile, and the price is supported by downstream procurement demand [22][23]. Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated. The inventory pressure and profit contraction of finished products restrict the market, while policy expectations provide support [24]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills have resumed production, and iron ore demand is supported. Global iron ore shipments have decreased, and port inventories are decreasing rapidly. The market is expected to be bullish [25]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is increasing, and inventory is accumulating. The export situation is mixed. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the overall view is bullish, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [26]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal were weak at night. The USDA report had a neutral - bearish impact on the market. The expected improvement in trade relations may put pressure on domestic prices [27]. - **Edible Oils**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed oil were strong at night, while palm oil prices fell slightly. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil have decreased, and the market may fluctuate [28][29]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be weak due to increased supply and inventory. Domestic sugar prices are supported by high sales - to - production ratios and low inventories but may be dragged down by import pressure [30]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices showed a mixed performance. The freight rate of shipping companies has decreased during the National Day holiday, and the 12 - contract is relatively resistant. Attention should be paid to the follow - up rate cuts of shipping companies [31]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index was weak, with the 10 - contract falling 6.72%. The freight rate of shipping companies has decreased significantly, and the 12 - contract is relatively resistant. Attention should be paid to the follow - up rate cuts of shipping companies [32].

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - After a 25bp interest rate cut and the dot - plot indicating two more cuts this year, the dollar index first fell then rose. With the exhaustion of positive factors, non - ferrous metals declined, and copper and tin led the fall. Shanghai zinc closed at 22,035 yuan/ton, down 245 yuan or 1.10%, with a 10 - 11 spread of - 10. The fundamentals changed little. Enterprises' point - price purchases led to a slight decline in inventory, but the sustainability of de - stocking is to be observed. Spot premiums rose due to increased point - price purchases during the price decline. The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic zinc markets continued, and there is an expectation of opening the refined zinc export window. Attention should be paid to the support at the 22,000 - yuan level of Shanghai zinc [7]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review - Futures Market: For SHFE zinc 2510, it opened at 22,175 yuan/ton, closed at 22,035 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,205 yuan/ton, a low of 21,950 yuan/ton, down 245 yuan or 1.10%, and the position decreased by 6,337 to 71,757. For SHFE zinc 2511, it opened at 22,215 yuan/ton, closed at 22,045 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan or 1.08%, and the position increased by 15,427 to 109,570. For SHFE zinc 2512, it opened at 22,230 yuan/ton, closed at 22,070 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan or 1.03%, and the position increased by 2,794 to 33,436 [7]. - Inventory: Seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased by 0.21 million tons to 15.85 million tons [7]. - Spot Premium: Shanghai market quoted a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the 10 - contract, Tianjin quoted a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the Shanghai market, and Guangdong quoted a discount of 90 yuan/ton to the 11 - contract, with the Shanghai - Guangdong spread narrowing [7]. 2. Industry News - On September 18, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 21,930 - 22,070 yuan/ton, and different brands had different premiums or discounts to the contract [8]. - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at 21,930 - 22,050 yuan/ton, with different quotes to the 2510 contract and the Shanghai spot [8]. - In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc was traded at 21,970 - 22,090 yuan/ton, and different brands had different quotes to the 2510 contract and the Shanghai market [8]. - In the Guangdong market, 0 zinc was traded at 21,830 - 22,030 yuan/ton, with a discount of 90 yuan/ton to the 2511 contract and a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread narrowed [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report includes charts on the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, and LME zinc inventory, with data from Wind, SMM, and the research and development department of CCB Futures [11][13]