来源：市场资讯 （来源：申万宏源融成） 美国弱通胀+日央行鸽派加息，流动性担忧缓解 ——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20251213-20251219) 本期投资提示： 全球资本市场回顾：本周 (20251212-20251219) 美国市场核心矛盾聚焦美联储政策走向的博弈，美联储此前的降息与扩表操作引发通胀反弹的担忧，而 11 月核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.6% 创 2021 年以来新低，又推动市场升温 2026 年更早降息的押注，加上本周五日本央行鸽派加息，全球流动性担忧缓解，市场风 险偏好先下后上。1）固收方面，10Y美债收益率录得4.16%，本周下降3BPs，美元指数上涨0.32%，当前点位为98.7；2）权益方面，本周阿根廷、越南、 欧洲股市上涨较多，而科创板、恒生指数则出现下跌，韩国、日本股市跌幅较大；3）商品方面，本周黄金上涨1.25%，在俄乌冲突缓和叠加供应过剩影 响下，原油本周下跌0.93%。 全球资金流向跟踪：截止到2025/12/17，过去一周来看，内外资均流入中国股市；海外资金主动和被动方面，海外主动基金过去一周流出3.12亿美元，而 海外被动基金过去一周流入14.67亿美元；内资和外资方 ...

市场对美联储明年多次降息的预期升温，叠加美国和委内瑞拉局势引发避险交易活跃，国际金价周一 （22日）显著上涨，突破每盎司4400美元整数关口，创盘中和收盘历史新高。截至收盘，纽约商品交易 所明年2月交割的黄金期价收于每盎司4469.4美元，涨幅为1.87%。 （总台央视记者 高岩） 编辑：王一帆 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market has officially entered the "Santa Claus Rally," with all three major indices rising for three consecutive days, driven by a surge in AI-related stocks, which has boosted market sentiment [1][3] - The VIX, a measure of market volatility, has dropped to 14.08, the lowest level since December 13, 2024, indicating reduced investor fear [1] AI and Technology Stocks - AI-related stocks saw significant gains, with Nvidia, Tesla, and TSMC ADR rising over 1%, Oracle increasing by more than 3%, and Micron Technology up over 4% [3] - Investors are closely monitoring these tech stocks amid concerns about high valuations as the year-end approaches [3] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have surged, with COMEX gold futures rising by 2.13% to $4480.6 per ounce and COMEX silver futures increasing by 2.37% to $69.09 per ounce, marking year-to-date increases of 69% and 137%, respectively [4] - The recent price increases are attributed to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and heightened demand for safe-haven assets [4][5] Federal Reserve Outlook - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve may cut rates at least twice in 2026, influenced by comments from former President Trump advocating for looser monetary policy [1][4] - The employment growth slowdown and lower-than-expected inflation data support the narrative for further rate cuts [4] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical risks are contributing to the concentration of funds in precious metals, as investors seek to hedge against uncertainty [4][5] Federal Reserve Leadership - Former President Trump is expected to appoint a new Federal Reserve Chair in the first week of January, with candidates advocating for lower interest rates [7][8] - Recent comments from Fed officials, including Stephen Miran, suggest a dovish stance, warning of recession risks if rate cuts do not continue [8][9]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market has officially entered the "Santa Claus Rally" phase, with all three major indices closing higher for three consecutive days, driven by a surge in AI-related stocks, which has boosted market sentiment [2][4]. - The VIX, or the "fear index," has dropped to 14.08, marking the lowest level since December 13, 2024, indicating reduced market volatility [2]. Precious Metals Performance - Gold and silver prices have surged, with COMEX gold futures rising over 2% to reach $4480.6 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures increasing by 2.37% to $69.09 per ounce. Year-to-date, gold and silver have gained 69% and 137%, respectively, potentially marking the largest annual increases since 1979 [5][6]. - The recent price increases are attributed to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical risks [5]. Federal Reserve Insights - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates at least twice in 2026, influenced by recent economic data showing slowing job growth and lower-than-expected inflation [5][8]. - Trump is expected to appoint a new Federal Reserve chair in early January, with all known candidates advocating for lower interest rates [8]. - Stephen Miran, a Fed governor appointed by Trump, has warned that failure to continue rate cuts could lead to a recession, emphasizing the need for a shift towards more dovish policies [8][9]. Technology Sector Highlights - AI-related stocks have seen significant gains, with Nvidia, Tesla, and Oracle rising over 1%, and Micron Technology increasing by more than 4%. Investors are closely monitoring these tech stocks amid concerns over high valuations [4]. - The solar energy sector has also performed well, with Turbo Energy, Sunrun, and Canadian Solar experiencing substantial increases, reflecting strong market interest [4]. Investment Outlook - Goldman Sachs and other banks forecast that gold prices could continue to rise, with a baseline prediction of $4900 per ounce by 2026, driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical hedging [6].

资金面上，多头入场意愿明显增强。数据显示，当日沪金主力合约增仓1.24万手，持仓量升至20.21万 手，创阶段性新高，显示资金 正持续加码布局。 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达表示，美联储政策预期与地缘不确定性构成当前金价的核心支撑。一方面， 美联储内部对政策路径仍存在分歧，"短期分歧、长期趋宽"的政策叙事不断强化市场对宽松周期的预 期；另一方面，中东局势潜在升级以及欧洲地缘政治演变，持续为市场注入避险溢价，巩固了贵金属的 配置价值。 在美联储降息预期持续升温、全球避险需求同步抬头的共振驱动下，贵金属市场再度上演集体狂飙行 情。 12月22日，国内、国际贵金属价格全线爆发。现货黄金、现货白银双双创历史新高，沪金主力合约再度 站上1000元/克整数关口；沪银主力合约大涨逾6%，创历史新高；铂、钯主力合约则双双封死涨停板， 成为当日盘面中最耀眼的品种。 在多重宏观变量叠加之下，资金加速涌入贵金属板块，行情呈现出明显的趋势性特征。与此同时，部分 机构也开始提示风险，提醒投资者警惕在连续大幅上涨之后，贵金属价格波动或显著加剧。 沪金突破1000元大关 经历前期短暂的震荡整理后，黄金市场再度走出强势单边行情，向历史高位发起新 ...

12月23日，周一（12月22日）纽约时段，现货黄金价格加速上涨，日内涨幅扩大至2%，有望与现货白银一同录得逾四十 年来最强劲的年度表现。 央视新闻报道还提到，据乌克兰国家安全局消息人士称，其特种部队无人机首次在地中海打击了俄油轮，油轮受损严 重。 投资者同样在金价上行中扮演了关键角色，部分原因在于所谓的"贬值交易"——他们担心各国不断膨胀的债务水平，导 致资金撤离主权债券及其计价货币，转而配置黄金。 具体行情显示，现货黄金日内一度涨超2.3%报每盎司4442.22美元，现货白银一度涨3.3%报每盎司69.46美元，双双刷新 历史纪录，年内金银分别累涨69%和137%，势将创下1979年以来的最大年度涨幅。 高盛集团等多家银行预计金价将在2026年继续走高，其基准情景预测为每盎司4900美元，且上行风险更大。该行指出， ETF投资者正开始与各国央行争夺有限的实物供应。 Dilin Wu表示，中央银行购金、实物需求以及地缘政治对冲共同构成了"中长期锚定因素"，而美联储政策和实际利率仍 是推动周期性波动的关键因素。 分析认为，最新一波上涨源于交易员押注美联储将在2026年降息两次，美国总统特朗普也公开主张较宽松的 ...

Group 1: Major Economic Events - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, while the European Central Bank maintained rates unchanged [1] - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, with non-farm payrolls adding 64,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations of 50,000 [58] - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, significantly below market expectations, influenced by data quality issues due to the government shutdown [60] Group 2: Currency and Commodity Movements - The Japanese yen depreciated rapidly, while the COMEX silver price surged significantly [1] - The US dollar index increased by 0.3% to 98.71, with most currencies depreciating against the dollar, including the Japanese yen which fell by 1.2% [25] - WTI crude oil prices decreased by 1.6% to $56.5 per barrel, while COMEX gold rose by 1.2% to $4,354.0 per ounce [36][42] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 index showed mixed performance across sectors, with consumer discretionary, materials, and healthcare sectors rising by 1.0%, 0.6%, and 0.6% respectively, while energy and real estate sectors fell by 2.9% and 1.4% [5] - The Hang Seng Index experienced a decline across most sectors, with technology and consumer discretionary sectors dropping by 2.8% and 3.0% respectively [9] Group 4: Bond Market Trends - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell by 3.0 basis points to 4.16%, while yields in other developed markets showed mixed trends [15] - Emerging market 10-year bond yields mostly increased, with Turkey's yield rising by 175.5 basis points to 30.32% [20]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a significant surge, with gold, silver, platinum, and palladium all reaching new historical highs, driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors, monetary policy expectations, and geopolitical uncertainties [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 22, gold reached a record high of $4420.07 per ounce, surpassing the previous high of $4381.48 on October 20 [1]. - Silver also hit a new peak, crossing the $69 per ounce mark, with an intraday high of $69.45 [1]. - Platinum and palladium showed strong performance, with platinum rising to $2074.10 per ounce, marking a more than 4% increase and the first time it has surpassed $2000 since 2008, while palladium reached $1796.5 per ounce, also with a daily increase exceeding 4% [3]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The comprehensive rise in precious metals is attributed to a consensus on multiple driving factors, including expectations of the Federal Reserve initiating a rate cut cycle, ongoing central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical uncertainties contributing to a long-term risk premium for precious metals [3][4]. - The current macroeconomic environment supports precious metal prices, with the expectation of high volatility and a potential for significant price corrections due to market sentiment [5]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to approach the current market with caution, recognizing that while the macro environment is favorable, core prices are at historical highs, necessitating a careful assessment of risk tolerance [5]. - The recommended strategy for ordinary investors is to view precious metals as a long-term defensive asset rather than a short-term speculative tool, suggesting methods like dollar-cost averaging into gold or gold ETFs to gradually build positions [5].

摘要 央行购金行为是支撑金价的关键因素，类似于大股东回购股票，减少市 场流通量，长期来看，其影响远超地缘政治和美元利率等短期因素。 近期金价上涨可能与特朗普加征关税预期、宽财政和货币政策以及美联 储人事变动等因素有关，但央行购金仍是主导力量，低成本吸纳抛压盘， 使得金价难以下跌。 预计 2026 年一季度美国经济将表现良好，带动风险资产上涨，原因包 括基数较低、美联储降息预期以及疫情数据对计调模型的污染，但央行 购金将继续支撑金价。 虽然美债利率和美元指数走高理论上利空黄金，但自 2024 年以来，这 种关联性减弱，美元强弱不再是主导性变量，央行购金行为将继续支撑 并推高金价。 黄金适合耐心资本，从一年维度看仍处于上涨轨道。最佳策略是买入并 长期持有，不必过多关注短期波动，长期持有最终都会盈利。 即使 2026 年一季度美国经济表现良好、风险资产上涨，也不必过分担 忧，因为央行持续购金行为将继续支撑并推高金价。 黄金重回 1000，后市怎么看 20251222 自 2024 年以来，黄金价格的上涨主要受到中长期因素的推动，其中最核心的 是央行购金和去美元化趋势。央行购金行为自 2022 年第三季度以来成为影响 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a significant surge, with gold, silver, platinum, and palladium all reaching historical highs, driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors, monetary policy expectations, and geopolitical uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 22, gold reached a record high of $4420.07 per ounce, surpassing the previous high of $4381.48 on October 20 [1]. - Silver also hit a new peak, reaching $69.45 per ounce, marking its first time above the $69 threshold [1]. - Platinum and palladium showed strong performance, with platinum exceeding $2000 per ounce for the first time since 2008, and palladium reaching $1796.5 per ounce, both with daily gains exceeding 4% [1]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The current rally in precious metals is attributed to a consensus on multiple core drivers, including expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, ongoing central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical uncertainties contributing to a long-term risk premium for precious metals [2]. - The surge in gold prices has activated market bullish sentiment, leading to a ripple effect that has benefited silver, platinum, and palladium, creating a complete chain reaction from financial attributes to industrial properties [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Future price movements are expected to diverge, with gold likely maintaining a steady trajectory due to its strong financial attributes, while silver's price will be influenced by industrial demand, particularly in green technologies [2]. - Platinum and palladium will be more closely tied to the recovery of the automotive sector and overall economic conditions, potentially reducing their correlation with gold [2]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Despite favorable macro conditions for precious metals, prices are at historical highs, prompting a cautious approach for investors [3]. - Investors are advised to view this rally as a result of long-term drivers rather than short-term speculation, and to consider precious metals as a defensive asset in their portfolios [3].