Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced a strong rebound last week, recovering most of the previous week's losses, with bullish sentiment re-emerging and prices stabilizing above the 5-10 week moving averages, indicating a positive outlook for future price increases [1][3]. Price Movement - Gold prices opened the week at $4,346.46 per ounce, reached a low of $4,344.06, and then surged above the $4,400 mark, ultimately hitting a weekly high of $4,516.88 before closing at $4,509.95. The weekly price fluctuation was $172.82, with a closing increase of $181.6, representing a 4.18% rise compared to the previous week's closing price of $4,328.35 [3][5]. Influencing Factors - The rise in gold prices was influenced by geopolitical risks in Venezuela, despite some resistance from the CME Group's third margin increase for precious metal futures and market expectations of negative non-farm payroll data. Additionally, the ongoing geopolitical tensions and calls for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve contributed to the bullish sentiment [3][5]. - Central banks in Asia have continued to increase their gold holdings for the 14th consecutive month, further supporting the bullish outlook for gold [3]. Future Outlook - The outlook for gold remains strong, with expectations of continued bullish momentum. The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice or more later this year, which, along with rising fiscal debt, could push gold prices towards the $5,000 mark or higher [5][7]. - Technical analysis indicates that if gold prices maintain their upward trajectory, there is potential for a significant bull market, with projections suggesting prices could reach between $5,500 and $6,000 [7][8]. Technical Analysis - On a monthly basis, gold prices have shown strong performance, recovering from previous declines and reducing bearish patterns. If this trend continues, it could lead to a new bull market with over 30% gains [7]. - Weekly analysis shows that gold prices have stabilized above the 5-10 week moving averages, indicating increased bullish potential and the possibility of reaching new historical highs [8]. - Daily charts indicate that gold is maintaining its position above short-term moving averages, with bullish signals persisting, suggesting a continued upward trend [10].

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aims to improve the institutional environment for long-term investments and increase the proportion of medium to long-term funds entering the market [1] - The CSRC will enhance the precision and effectiveness of services for technology innovation enterprises and deepen reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary announced potential easing of sanctions on Venezuela to promote oil exports, indicating a shift in international economic relations [1] Group 2 - Precious metals have rebounded due to easing inflation pressures in the U.S. and expectations of interest rate cuts, supported by a global easing liquidity environment [2] - Gold's long-term upward trend is expected to continue, bolstered by central bank purchases and a weakening dollar [2] - Silver and platinum are also supported by supply-demand gaps, with silver experiencing tight supply and robust industrial demand, particularly from the solar energy sector [2] Group 3 - U.S. stock indices rose, with the media sector leading gains and the banking sector lagging, while market turnover reached 3.15 trillion yuan [3] - The financing balance increased by 15.944 billion yuan, indicating a positive sentiment in the market [3] - The appreciation of the RMB against the USD is expected to attract overseas capital back to China, supporting asset revaluation [3] Group 4 - Copper prices rose due to tight concentrate supply and stable demand from the power and automotive sectors, despite a weak real estate market [20] - The overall copper supply-demand outlook is shifting towards a deficit, influenced by market sentiment [20] - The market is advised to monitor changes in the dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [20]

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold reached a historical high of $4,561, influenced by tensions in U.S.-Iran relations, the situation in Iran, and U.S. economic data [1] Group 1: Market Influences - The Iranian government declared three days of national mourning for those who died in the struggle against the U.S. and Israel, amidst rising prices and currency devaluation leading to protests and unrest [3] - European leaders criticized the U.S. for its threatening remarks regarding Greenland, a Danish territory, which has heightened geopolitical tensions [3] Group 2: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices typically have an inverse relationship with the U.S. dollar; as the dollar depreciates, gold prices rise to maintain value balance [4] - The expectation of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve supports gold's investment appeal, especially as other financial assets yield lower returns [4] - Gold's intrinsic value as a hedge against inflation is emphasized due to significant fiscal imbalances in the U.S. and Europe, raising concerns about long-term inflation [4] - Ongoing international tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Iran relations, further drive demand for gold as a risk hedge [4]

Group 1: Investment Strategies - The importance of stop-loss strategies is emphasized, as they are crucial for preserving capital and preventing larger losses [1][7] - Investors should set stop-loss levels within 5%-10% of their cost to manage risk effectively [7] - Learning from past trading mistakes is essential for improving future investment decisions [9] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - Recent U.S. labor market data shows a slowdown, with only 50,000 new jobs added in December 2025, below expectations, but the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, providing some support for gold prices [2] - Gold prices tested the $4500 resistance level, closing at $4509.03 per ounce, up 0.71% on the day and 4.08% for the week [2] - The technical outlook for gold indicates a bullish trend, with potential to reach historical highs around $4550, while key support is noted at $4480 [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The international oil market saw a rebound after two days of decline, with Brent crude oil prices rising significantly, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [5] - Despite rising oil inventories in the U.S., the market is currently focused on supply disruption risks rather than inventory data alone [5] - The technical analysis suggests a bearish trend for oil prices, with resistance levels identified at $60.5-$61.5 and support at $58.0-$57.0 [6]

Group 1 - The domestic gold jewelry market has initiated its first price increase of the year in early 2026, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook adjusting their prices due to rising costs [1] - The price of gold jewelry has increased significantly, with a specific example of a gold bracelet's price rising from approximately 27,000 yuan to about 31,000 yuan, reflecting a price increase of around 14.8% [1] - The current market price for gold jewelry is approaching 1,400 yuan per gram, with reports indicating a daily increase of 10 yuan and a cumulative rise of at least 30 yuan within the week [1] Group 2 - The recent increase in domestic gold prices is primarily driven by the stabilization and rise of international gold prices, which have surpassed 4,500 USD per ounce as of January 9 [2] - Geopolitical risks and lower-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data have led to increased investment in gold, supporting a bullish trend in international gold prices [2] - Long-term expectations suggest that continued U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and central banks' increased gold reserves will sustain demand in the physical gold market [2]

Group 1 - The domestic gold jewelry market has initiated its first price increase of the year in early 2026, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook raising prices due to rising costs [1] - The price of gold jewelry has increased significantly, with a specific example of a gold bracelet's price rising from approximately 27,000 yuan to about 31,000 yuan, reflecting a price increase of around 14.8% [1] - The current price of gold per gram has approached 1,400 yuan, with reports indicating a daily increase of 10 yuan and a total rise of at least 30 yuan within the week [1] Group 2 - The recent increase in domestic gold prices is primarily driven by the stabilization and rise of international gold prices, which have surpassed 4,500 USD per ounce as of January 9 [2] - Geopolitical risks and lower-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data have led to increased investment in gold, supporting a bullish trend in international gold prices [2] - Long-term expectations suggest that continued U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and central banks' increased gold reserves will sustain demand in the physical gold market [2]

Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares have successfully broken through 4100 points, while H-shares show relative weakness[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.79% from January 3 to January 10, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.41% during the same period[13] - The AH premium index remains in the range of 115-120 points, indicating a preference for high-quality H-shares over A-shares[12] Group 2: Market Structure and Liquidity - A-shares are driven by "new economy" sectors such as semiconductor equipment and aerospace, benefiting from policy support and improved liquidity[1] - H-shares are still dominated by traditional sectors, leading to concerns over excessive competition among internet companies like Alibaba and Meituan[1] - Increased leverage by individual investors and concentrated allocation by long-term funds in A-shares have supported trading volumes, especially amid the appreciation of the RMB[1] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 2.60% year-on-year, while retail sales increased by 1.30% year-on-year[5] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.02%, and exports rose by 5.90% year-on-year[5] Group 4: Inventory and Fund Behavior - Recent oil inventory stands at 44,355 million tons, up by 2.78 million tons from the previous week[3] - The latest gold ETF scale is 3,422 million ounces, a decrease of 20,000 ounces from the previous week[28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, silver showed high - level fluctuations. London silver once fell below the 10 - day moving average during the week, then stabilized on Friday and tested the $80 mark, eventually closing at $79.9. The Shanghai silver main contract closed at 19,438 yuan/kg in the night session on Saturday morning. The weekly gains of London silver and Shanghai silver were both 9.7%, and the cumulative gains in 2025 were 148% and 129% respectively [8]. - The US manufacturing PMI in December was 47.9, lower than expected. The number of non - farm payrolls in December increased by 50,000, lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was significantly revised downward, but the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4% [8]. - The US CPI in November increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected, and the core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, strengthening the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [8]. - Last week, the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond decreased by 1 basis point, and the US dollar index continued to rebound slightly [8]. - In 2025, the global silver market's supply - demand gap is expected to exceed 100 million ounces, and the market is in a supply shortage state for the fifth consecutive year. The inventory of LBMA has dropped to a historical low, and the tradable silver inventory is tight [8]. - The silver market is expected to remain strong in the medium and long term under the triple - drive of strategic resources, financial attributes, and industrial attributes. It is recommended to hold the AG2604 long position in the medium term [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Viewpoints and Strategies - **Silver Trends**: London silver and Shanghai silver had significant weekly and cumulative gains in 2025. London silver showed high - level fluctuations and finally closed at $79.9, while Shanghai silver closed at 19,438 yuan/kg [8]. - **US Economy**: The manufacturing PMI was weak, non - farm payrolls were lower than expected with previous data revisions, but the unemployment rate dropped [8]. - **Inflation**: US CPI and core CPI in November were lower than expected, strengthening the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [8]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield decreased by 1 basis point, and the US dollar index rebounded slightly [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: There is a large supply - demand gap in the silver market, and the tradable inventory is tight. The position of the largest silver ETF decreased week - on - week [8]. - **Spreads**: The spread between domestic and foreign silver futures reached a high of 1,762 yuan and finally closed at 820 yuan, and the gold - silver ratio in London spot reached 56.43 [8]. - **Viewpoint and Strategy**: The silver market is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, and it is recommended to hold the AG2604 long position [9]. Futures and Spot Markets - Multiple charts show the trends of COMEX silver futures, London silver spot, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver futures, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver [13][17]. US Economy - Charts present data on US GDP, PMI, non - farm payrolls, and unemployment rate [24][25]. Inflation - Charts display US CPI/PCE and core CPI/PCE data [30]. Interest Rates - Charts show short - term and medium - long - term US Treasury bond yields and real interest rates [37][41]. Fundamentals - A table shows the global silver supply - demand balance sheet from 2016 to 2025F, including supply (mining production, recycling, etc.) and demand (industrial, jewelry, etc.) [45]. - Charts show silver ETF positions, COMEX, LBMA, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventories [46][49][53]. US Dollar Index and Exchange Rates - Charts show the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, and other exchange rates such as pound - US dollar and US dollar - Canadian dollar [59][62][67]. Silver Spreads - Charts show the trends of domestic and foreign silver futures, spreads between domestic and foreign silver, silver basis, and gold - silver ratio [76][84][89].

Domestic Macro - Domestic policies are optimizing supply, and the synergy between growth stabilization and "anti-involution" policies is evident[1] - Consumer demand remains strong, with a 6.1% increase in travel activity, but movie box office revenues are down 9.8% compared to last year[1] - External demand shows marginal decline, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) dropping 21.7% to 1811.4[1] - Production intensity is stronger than previous years, with a production increase of 1.55 percentage points to 79.15%[1] Price Performance - Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a 1.79% increase, with pork prices stabilizing and apple prices rising seasonally[2] - Producer Price Index (PPI) indicates a rebound in crude oil prices, with a 2.52% increase in WTI[2] Overseas Macro - U.S. non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, leading to a slowdown in future interest rate cuts[1] - Employment growth is slowing but has not triggered signals of a hard landing, with a 4.4% unemployment rate[2] - Short-term interest rate cut expectations have significantly diminished[2] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Local government bonds are being issued to promote domestic demand, with a total issuance of 4950 billion[3] - National debt yields are rising, with SHIBOR007 increasing by 51 basis points to 1.9560%[3]

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices experienced a strong upward trend this week, with significant movements including a rise on Monday and Tuesday, a pullback on Wednesday, and a strong rally on Friday following non-farm payroll data, ultimately closing the week with a bullish candlestick [1] Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have been significantly delayed, with market predictions suggesting a potential delay until May or later, as major investment banks have adjusted their forecasts [2] - Key economic data to watch includes the U.S. December CPI, with expectations of persistent high inflation; a core CPI monthly increase of 0.3% or more could strengthen the dollar, while a lower figure may boost gold prices [3] - Geopolitical risks are rising, with tensions from Trump's remarks on Greenland and ongoing protests in Iran, which could increase demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The current gold price movement is identified as part of a fifth wave upward structure, with critical support at 4274; if this level holds, further upward movement is anticipated [7] - Resistance levels to monitor include the previous high of 4550 and the 4580-4600 range, which is crucial for the next week [10] - The lower support range of 4405-4395 is significant, as it has shown strength after a recent breakout; if upward movement encounters resistance, adjustments may be necessary [10]