Report Overview - The report is a special report on the May Day holiday in 2025, analyzing the price changes of various sectors in the external market during the holiday, important news, and providing post - holiday trading suggestions [2] 1. 2025 May Day Holiday External Market Price Changes Exchange and Precious Metals - The US dollar index rose 0.58% from 99.22 to 99.8; the US silver continuous contract fell 1.27% from 33.04 to 32.62; the US gold continuous contract dropped 1.33% from 3315.2 to 3271 [2] Stock Indexes - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased 4.03% from 6894.72 to 7172.4; the German DAX rose 2.95%, the Hang Seng main contract climbed 2.69%, the French CAC40 went up 2.68%, the S&P 500 increased 1.46%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 1.13%, and the Nikkei 225 increased 1.04% [2] Commodities - Some commodities like US cotton continuous contract rose 3.31%, while others such as Brent crude oil continuous contract fell 4.55% and WTI crude oil continuous contract dropped 5.04% [2] 2. 2025 May Day Holiday Important News Stock Index Sector - Global major stock indexes performed well during the holiday. The rise was related to tariff negotiation progress and Fed policy expectations. The US proposed to lower tariffs, and the Fed's potential rate - cut in the future could ease global liquidity pressure [3] Energy Sector - OPEC+ announced an accelerated production increase of 411,000 barrels per day from June, which may complete the 2.2 million barrels per day total increase target nearly one year ahead. This led to concerns about supply pressure and a decline in oil prices [4] Precious Metals Sector - Gold prices fluctuated due to tariff negotiation progress. Even if tariffs improve, central banks' gold - buying trend may continue. Silver was under pressure due to unclear macro - economic situations and high - level gold price fluctuations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector - Strong US non - farm payroll data cooled rate - cut expectations, and low manufacturing PMI restricted the rebound space of non - ferrous metals [6][7] Black Metals Sector - For steel, production increased slightly, inventory decreased, and apparent demand rose during the holiday, but the sustainability is uncertain. For iron ore, it faced a situation of high supply, weak demand, and policy suppression [8] Agricultural Products Sector - Vegetable oils in the external market fell significantly due to the decline in international oil prices. Different agricultural products had different trends, such as soybeans and soybean meal having narrow - range fluctuations [9][10] 3. Post - holiday Trading Suggestions Energy and Chemicals - The crude oil market is expected to be weak after the holiday, which may drive down the sentiment of the energy - chemical sector. Styrene is expected to continue its weak trend [12][13] Non - ferrous Metals - Non - ferrous metals may fluctuate after the holiday. Shanghai copper may have a relatively strong oscillation [13] Black Metals - Steel is expected to oscillate in the short term, and its upward space is restricted in the long term. Iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [8][13] Agricultural Products - Domestic vegetable oil varieties are likely to follow the external market's decline. Dalian soybeans and soybean meal may continue the weak - oscillation trend, and corn futures may continue the pre - holiday strong - oscillation trend [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations, currently reported around $3,295 per ounce, with significant attention on upcoming U.S. PMI data that could lead to notable market volatility [1] - Gold prices have seen a four-day consecutive rise, reaching a two-week high of $3,350 per ounce, but the upward momentum is slowing down due to market digestion of previous positive news and upcoming economic data releases [1] - Factors supporting gold prices include rising geopolitical risks, deteriorating U.S. fiscal conditions, and a weakening dollar, with Moody's downgrading the U.S. sovereign credit rating and warning of potential increases in U.S. debt by $3 to $5 trillion [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that gold prices have recently rebounded to a one-week high, but there is a need to be cautious of short-term correction risks, with a high point of $3,345 noted for the day [3] - The 5-day moving average shows a slight golden cross, while MACD indicates a dead cross with an upward turn, suggesting a mixed technical outlook for gold prices [3] - The suggested trading strategy includes shorting gold around the current price of $3,290, with a stop loss at $3,298 and a target range of $3,275 to $3,255, indicating a bearish sentiment for the evening [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The extension of Trump's tax - cut policy in his first term and the large - scale government spending cuts in the new bill have raised concerns about the expansion of the federal debt scale, leading to a weakening of the US dollar. The risk of the US dollar's credit has increased, which is a structural positive for the gold price. The Fed's latest statements maintain a cautious and wait - and - see tone, and the uncertainty of fiscal and tariff policies may delay the timing of interest rate cuts this year. In the medium - to - long - term, gold prices are still boosted by the safe - haven property and interest rate cut expectations. [2] - The tariff situation has reached a deadlock again, and the negotiations between the US, Japan, and the EU face great uncertainty. Against the background of the medium - to - long - term upward shift of the gold - silver ratio, the correlation between gold and silver price movements has declined. Recently, silver has mainly followed the upward trend of gold. In addition, silver's industrial demand remains strong, and its industrial attribute may maintain resilience. It is recommended to adopt a medium - to - long - term strategy of buying on dips. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 780.1 yuan/gram, up 1.32 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 8301 yuan/kg, up 29 yuan. [2] - **Positions**: The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold were 224,053 lots, up 1,559 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver were 383,991 lots, up 20,934 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract were 111,487 lots, up 4,976 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract were 175,940 lots, up 11,732 lots. [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of gold warehouse receipts was 17,247 kg, unchanged; the number of silver warehouse receipts was 949,197 kg, up 8,398 kg. [2] 3.2现货市场 - **Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 780.99 yuan/gram, up 7.2 yuan; the spot price of silver was 8,269 yuan/kg, up 73 yuan. [2] - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 0.89 yuan/gram, up 5.88 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 32 yuan/kg, up 44 yuan. [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings were 919.88 tons, down 1.72 tons; silver ETF holdings were 14,054.89 tons, unchanged. [2] - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 161,209 contracts, down 1,288 contracts; silver CTFC non - commercial net positions were 47,754 contracts, down 1,498 contracts. [2] - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces. [2] 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 32.82%, down 0.68 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 26.97%, down 0.06 percentage points. [2] - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 27.46%, up 0.43 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 27.47%, up 0.45 percentage points. [2] 3.5 Industry News - A new tax bill extends Trump's tax - cut policy in his first term and cuts government spending to pay for tax cuts. The market is worried that this will lead to an expansion of the federal debt scale, and the CBO estimates that it will increase the federal deficit by $1.8 trillion from 2026 - 2035. [2] - Two Fed officials said the Fed can be patient and evaluate upcoming data before adjusting policies. [2] - The EU is expected to submit a revised trade proposal to the US to promote negotiations with the Trump administration. [2] - The Middle East situation is tense. Iran is evaluating participation in the next round of negotiations with the US, and Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities if the US - Iran negotiations break down. [2] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 94.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 5.4%. In July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 73.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 25.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 1.2%. [2] 3.6 Operation Suggestions - For the Shanghai Gold 2508 contract, focus on the range of 758 - 805 yuan/gram; for the Shanghai Silver 2508 contract, focus on the range of 8,200 - 8,390 yuan/kg. For COMEX gold futures, focus on the range of $3,240 - $3,380 per ounce; for COMEX silver futures, focus on the range of $32.9 - $34.0 per ounce. [2]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】EIA数据：原油库存增长132.8万桶，库存增 长81.6万桶，原油产量增加0.5万桶至1339.2万桶/日。阿曼称 第五轮伊朗-美国谈判将于5月23日星期五在罗马举行。伊朗外 长再次强调了伊朗的立场非常明确，即无论是否达成协议，铀 浓缩都将继续进行。评：EIA数据显示，原油、成品油全线累 库，与凌晨API数据差异较大，偏利空的数据公布后油价继续快 速回落。整体看，短期原油压力不大，长期关注美伊、俄乌谈 判进展及OPEC+增产情况。短期短线参与。 【短评-黄金】由于投资者对大规模减税法案感到不安，美 国遭股债汇"三杀"。当日20年期美国国债拍卖结果弱于预 期，表明投资者可能对购买政府债务的需求疲软，随后收益率 走高。评：市场对美元及美债提出担忧，美元指数下跌，黄金 持续上涨。黄金短期偏多，中期或陷入高位震荡，关注即将到 期兑付的美债问题。 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 姓名：蒯三可 投资咨询中心 2025年05月22日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfc ...

| | | 贵金属产业日报 2025-05-21 克。COMEX黄金期货关注区间：3257-3397美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货关注区间：32.8-33.6美元/盎司。 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 778.78 | 24.4 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8272 | 198 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 222494 | 11141 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 363057 | 26834 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 106511 | 8082 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 164208 | 36359 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 17247 | 9 仓单数 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】5月6日至13日的COT（交易者持仓报告）数据显示，市场出现大规模做空行为，做空规 模达111亿美元，虽有42亿美元买入开仓，但整体净多头头寸仍减少69亿美元。做空主力为对冲基金，其净卖出额 73亿美元，做空激增至94亿美元。其他类型投资者净多仓减少8.3亿美元，资产管理机构和非报告投资者分别买入 9.4亿美元和3亿美元。 高盛交易员Robert Quinn指出，纳指近几周表现良好，但同期新增空头头寸远超多头开仓。最近三期COT报告显 示，对冲基金累计做空金额高达250亿美元，为至少过去十年最大规模，且空仓占总未平仓合约比例达41%，为 2021年2月以来最高。 不过，对冲基金"空头仓位激增"或为对冲其他多头建仓的套利操作，但仍凸显其对美股上涨的怀疑。 值得注意的是，一些CEO言论与对冲基金立场一致，与通常美股走势和CEO信心正相关的常态出现极大偏离。美 国总统特朗普宣布关税90天暂停后，散户积极买入，美股大幅反弹。即便本周一穆迪下调美国评级，散户仍创纪 录抄底买入54亿美元，助美股V型反转。 与此同时，市场对美联储降息预期大幅回落。近几个月"硬数据"有韧性支撑增长预期与股市，但"软数据 ...

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate has fallen below the psychological level of 144.00, reaching a two-week low, driven by expectations of a shift in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy despite weak trade data [1][3] - Japan's core CPI has risen for 27 consecutive months, with service price increases at their highest since 1993, raising concerns about persistent inflation and prompting speculation about a potential interest rate hike in 2025 [3] - The USD is under pressure due to two main factors: the market fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September and Fitch's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating to AA+, leading to a reassessment of the attractiveness of USD assets [3] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates that the USD/JPY has broken key support levels, with the next target being the 143.65-143.60 area, which is a significant Fibonacci retracement level [3] - Short-term resistance levels are identified at 144.55 and 145.00, with any technical rebounds likely viewed as short-selling opportunities unless the price can reclaim 145.40 [4] - The market sentiment has shifted from merely trading interest rate differentials to speculating on policy expectation differences, indicating potential volatility due to discrepancies between actual policy adjustments by the Bank of Japan and market expectations [5]

贵金属日报：持续震荡 中长期维持看涨 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年5月21日 【行情回顾】 周二贵金属价格明显上涨，周边美指回落，10Y美债收益率走高，美股微跌欧股上涨。据媒体报道，美 国情报部门发现，以色列正准备袭击伊朗，推升周三亚盘早盘时段伦敦金一度升破3300关口，原油亦大 涨。最终黄金2506合约收报3292.6美元/盎司，+1.83%；美白银2507合约收报于33.26美元/盎司， +2.32%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合约收报754.38元/克，+0.48%；SHFE白银2506合约收8074元/千 克，-0.21%。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为94.7%，降息25个基点的概率为 5.3%；美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为70.3%，累计降息25个基点的概率为28.4%，累计降息50个基点 的概率为1.4%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率31.3%，累计降息25个基点的概率为51.6%，累计降息50 个基点的概率为16.3%，累计降息75个基点的概率为0.8%。长线基 ...

比特币突破107,000美元创新高，以太坊稳守2,500美元，机构资金持续流入 1. 当前价格走势 2. 市场催化因素与链上数据 3.1 爆仓金额与多空比 3.2 资金费率变化 资金费率上升：比特币永续合约资金费率保持在正值区间，反映多头情绪占据主导，投资者愿意 支付溢价维持多头仓位。 4. 操作策略 4.1 突破后追涨策略 4.2 回调买入策略 突破历史高点：BTC现报约107,170美元（HTX实时数据），较昨日上涨0.81%，日内波动区间为 106,688-107,222美元。价格成功突破107,000美元关口，创下历史新高，CoinDesk比特币指数上涨 1.41%至107,060.35美元。这一突破具有重要技术意义，为进一步上行打开空间。 技术形态分析：日线图上，价格成功突破上升通道上轨，成交量较昨日有所增加。106,600美元处 的供应集群阻力已被有效突破，表明市场买盘力量强劲。根据技术指标，比特币RSI指标已进入 超买区域，但在强势突破行情中，超买状态可能会持续一段时间。 美国SEC监管政策延续：SEC主席Paul Atkins于4月21日正式就职，并表示将推动加密资产相关规 则草案制定，多位S ...

周二（5月20日）因美联储官员对经济发表了更为谨慎的言论，同时交易员们期待着美国与日本即将举行的会谈，其中可能包括作为贸易协议一部分的汇率 讨论。美元指数继续走软，并跌至100大关附近，最终收跌0.34%，报100.02。基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.491%；对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率 收报3.977%。受益于市场仍然存在一定程度的不确定性，现货黄金先跌后涨，在欧盘时段开启涨势，并于美盘加速上行，日内大涨近2%，逼近3300美元大 关，最终收涨1.84%，报3289.98美元/盎司。周三，因美媒报道称以色列或准备袭击伊朗的核设施，黄金一度升破3300美元大关。 尽管近期黄金价格自4月创下的每盎司3,500美元历史高位大幅回调，但中长期支撑因素依旧稳固。从中长期来看，黄金仍是"买入并持有"的优质资产，尤其 在当前全球不确定性加剧的背景下。尽管美联储推迟降息且美国经济衰退风险降低，但市场预期美联储将在9月开始降息，这将进一步提升黄金的吸引力。 黄金上周四下探3120关口后迅速反弹回升逾100美元，随后震荡调整，周二大幅上涨逼近3300美元关口，目前多头走势偏强，周三早间一度上破3300美元关 口，日线 ...