Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 and synthetic rubber futures contract 2507 are expected to run strongly on May 14, 2025, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being weakly volatile [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Market Situation**: On the night of Tuesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract closed up 1.63% to 15,240 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: Domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas will enter a new round of tapping seasons, and new rubber supply will gradually increase. After the May Day holiday, the tire industry's start - up rate has rebounded, and procurement demand is expected to strengthen. However, due to the lack of continuous improvement in the supply - demand structure and a slight increase in rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, it is difficult to support the continuous strengthening of post - holiday rubber prices. The progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations has boosted market risk appetite [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Market Situation**: On the night of Tuesday, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract rebounded 3.17% to 12,515 yuan/ton [7]. - **Core Logic**: During the May Day holiday, OPEC+ agreed to continue the accelerated production increase in June, bringing new supply pressure to the crude oil market. After the digestion of bearish sentiment, oil prices stabilized. Supported by cost factors and the progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations, market risk appetite has been boosted [7].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term view of oscillation, a medium - term view of oscillation and weakness, and an intraday view of oscillation and strength [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Contents Price and Trend - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the average weekly output of methanol in China reached 2.0578 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 49,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 87,800 tons, and a significant increase of 352,000 tons compared with 1.7058 million tons in the same period last year [5] - On the night of Tuesday, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract closed up 2.10% to 2,329 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Wednesday [5] Supply and Demand - Although the production profit of domestic coal - to - methanol has declined, with the restart of multiple plants before the festival, the supply pressure has risen again and reached a new weekly production high [5] - The downstream demand has improved, the futures market profit of methanol - to - olefins has recovered, which helps boost the port's purchasing enthusiasm, and the port inventory has been smoothly reduced [5] Macro Factor - Against the background of real progress in China - US economic and trade negotiations, market risk appetite has been boosted [5]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 震荡偏弱 | 中美经贸谈判取得初步进展，行情反弹已有所反映，市场后期或重新再回 | | 螺纹钢 | | 到基本面交易。本周之后需求或进入季节性淡季，而钢厂在利润驱动下或 | | | | 维持高铁水产量，供需趋于宽松，后期供需矛盾存在激化风险。短期或呈 | | | | 震荡格局，但中期偏弱的判断不变。【3050，3120】 | | 热卷 | 震荡偏弱 | 基本面方面，热卷供应小幅增加，需求降幅较大，库存出现上升。出口仍 | | | | 在高位，但后期有回落风险。宏观消息提振有限，中期延续偏弱运行。【3180， | | | 3260】 | | | 铁矿石 | 短线参与 | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量继续增加，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持 | | | | 高位。供给端阶段性发到货双降，铁矿供需结构偏强。后期来看，终端需 | | | | 求边际转弱，与高铁水的分化矛盾逐渐积累。产业基本面恐承压。【700,735】 | | 焦炭 | 偏弱运行 | 铁水日产量维持同期偏高水平。但即使铁水产量高企，原料需求旺盛，仍 | | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Report's Core View - The short - term view of crude oil 2507 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory and weakening, and the intraday view is oscillatory and strengthening. It is expected to run strongly [1][5]. - The supply glut expectation of the oil market has increased due to OPEC+ accelerating production increase in June and the steady growth of US shale oil production. But as the bearish sentiment is digested, approaching the peak consumption season in mid - May, the demand factor may strengthen steadily, which will support the crude oil futures price. With the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the market risk appetite is boosted, and the domestic crude oil futures price rose 1.44% to 472.3 yuan/barrel on the night session of Monday. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract will maintain an oscillatory and strengthening trend on Tuesday [5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For crude oil 2507, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory and weakening, the intraday is oscillatory and strengthening, with a reference view of strong operation. The core logic is the improvement of macro - sentiment [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemicals Sector - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is oscillatory and strengthening, the medium - term view is oscillatory and weakening, with a reference view of strong operation. The core logic is the supply glut expectation caused by production increase and the potential demand boost in the peak consumption season, along with the improvement of market risk appetite [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - The Shanghai Rubber Futures 2509 contract and the Synthetic Rubber Futures 2507 contract are expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend on Tuesday, May 14, 2025 [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating and slightly weaker; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger; Overall view: stronger operation [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The natural rubber producing areas at home and abroad will enter a new round of tapping season, with raw material output steadily increasing and new rubber supply gradually rising. After the May Day holiday, the tire industry's operating rate has entered a stage of recovery, and procurement demand is expected to increase. However, due to the lack of continuous improvement in the supply - demand structure and a slight increase in rubber inventories in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, it is difficult to support the continuous strengthening of rubber prices after the holiday. With the real - time progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, market risk appetite has been boosted. The 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures rose 1.69% to 15,000 yuan/ton in the night session on Monday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating and slightly weaker; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger; Overall view: stronger operation [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: During the May Day holiday, OPEC+ oil - producing countries agreed to continue the accelerated production - increasing rhythm in June, bringing new supply pressure to the crude oil market. After the bearish sentiment in the crude oil market was digested, oil prices showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend. Supported by cost factors and the real - time progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, market risk appetite has been boosted. The 2507 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures continued to rebound 2.61% to 11,995 yuan/ton in the night session on Monday [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend on Tuesday. The market sentiment is improved by the progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, and although there is an increase in supply, the downstream demand has also improved [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - Cycle Views - Short - term: The methanol 2509 shows an oscillating pattern [1]. - Medium - term: It is oscillating with a slightly weaker tendency [1][5]. - Intraday: It is oscillating with a slightly stronger tendency, and the reference view is a stronger operation [1][5]. 3.2 Core Drivers - **Supply**: Although the production profit of domestic coal - to - methanol has declined, with multiple sets of devices restarting before the festival, the supply pressure has risen again, and the weekly production has reached a new high. As of the week of May 9, 2025, the average weekly methanol production in China reached 205.78 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.9 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.78 million tons, and a significant increase of 35.20 million tons compared with 170.58 million tons in the same period last year [5]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand has improved. The recovery of the futures profit of methanol - to - olefins has boosted the purchasing enthusiasm at ports, and the port inventory has been smoothly reduced [5]. - **Market Sentiment**: In the context of real - time progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, market risk appetite has been boosted. The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract rose 1.43% to 2277 yuan/ton in the night session on Monday [5].

略研 策略点评报告 中美经贸谈判取得实质性进展彰显中国力量 投资要点: > 事件:当地时间5月10日至11日,中美双方在瑞士日内瓦举行经贸高 层会谈,会谈达成了一系列重要共识;5月12日,中美双方发表日内瓦经 贸会谈联合声明,共同修改或取消相关关税,并建立机制,继续就经贸关 系进行协商。 > 我们认为此次中美经贸谈判取得了实质性进展,体现了中国捍卫全球 自由贸易体系的坚强决心,也彰显了中国不断上升的国家力量。此前美国 滥征所谓"对等"关税后,中国是第一个反制所谓"对等"关税的国家, 团队成员 策略点评报告 2025年5月12日 果客点评报 通过此次经贸磋商中,中美双方进行的坦诚、深入、具有建设性的交流, 最终取得了实质性进展,达成了重要共识。这样的结果来之不易,有利于 中美双方,有利于全球经济,也有利于全球资本市场的稳定。 > 风险提示:美国后续关税承诺未兑现 相关报告 1、《历史上的供给侧改革,对市场影响几何?》 2024. 6.1 2、《黄金这轮回调会有多深?》 分析师 朱斌 执业证书编号:S0210522050001 邮箱:zb3762@hfzq.com.cn 2024. 5. 26 3、《继续聚焦"轻 ...

Report Title - Weekly Report on Soybean Meal [1] Report Date - May 12, 2025 [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Last week, the CBOT July soybean contract rose 8.25 to close at 1052.25 cents per bushel, a 0.79% increase; the September soybean meal contract fell 21 to close at 2899 yuan per ton, a 0.72% decrease; the South China soybean meal spot price fell 480 to 3140 yuan per ton, a 13.26% decrease; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 15 to close at 2551 yuan per ton, a 0.59% increase; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 10 to 2430 yuan per ton, a 0.41% decrease [4][7]. - The fast sowing progress of US soybeans is conducive to the expectation of increased production, and there is no driving force in the weather market, so US soybeans continue to fluctuate. After the holiday, the soybean customs clearance process improved, the oil mill operating rate increased significantly, the soybean meal inventory stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply is expected to increase; the spot price dropped significantly, the feed enterprise inventory is at a low level in the same period, the提货 rhythm accelerated, and the post - holiday restocking transactions increased significantly. Although the China - US economic and trade negotiations have made substantial progress, factors such as the weather theme to be fermented and the expected tightening of the new - season balance sheet form support below, showing a weak and narrow - range fluctuation [4][7]. - In the next two weeks, the weather in the US soybean production areas will be good, which helps to maintain a fast sowing progress. At the same time, pay attention to the release of the May USDA report, and US soybeans may continue to fluctuate. In April, due to the impact of customs clearance policies, the soybean arrival volume was lower than expected, and the delayed part may be cleared in May. The domestic oil mill operating rate is expected to further increase, the soybean meal inventory will stop falling and rebound, and the supply will become more abundant; the China - US economic and trade negotiations have initially reached a consensus, pay attention to the subsequent process, but US soybeans generally show resistance to decline in the weather market, and the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate weakly [4][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - The CBOT soybean price rose 8.25 to 1052.25 cents per bushel, a 0.79% increase; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans fell 7 to 433 dollars per ton, a 1.59% decrease; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans fell 2 to 453 dollars per ton, a 0.44% decrease; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the disk increased 20 to 75.66 yuan per ton; the DCE soybean meal contract fell 21 to 2899 yuan per ton, a 0.72% decrease; the CZCE rapeseed meal contract rose 15 to 2551 yuan per ton, a 0.59% increase; the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference decreased 36 to 348 yuan per ton; the East China spot price fell 200 to 3200 yuan per ton, a 5.88% decrease; the South China spot price fell 480 to 3140 yuan per ton, a 13.26% decrease; the South China spot - futures price difference decreased 459 to 241 yuan per ton [5]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - As of the week of May 4, 2025, the US soybean planting progress was 30%, the market expected 31%, the previous week was 18%, and the same period last year was 23%; the soybean emergence rate was 7%, the same period last year was 8%, and the five - year average was 5%. As of the week of May 6, about 15% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and higher than 11% in the same period last year. The weather forecast shows that in the next 15 days, the cumulative precipitation in the US soybean production areas will be 40 - 50mm, slightly lower than the average level, which is conducive to sowing, and the temperature is generally higher than normal, and the fast sowing progress is conducive to the expectation of increased production [8]. - As of the week of May 1, 2025, the net export sales of US soybeans in the current market year increased by 37.7 tons, the previous week was 42.8 tons, the cumulative sales volume of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 4772 tons, the sales progress was 96.1%, and the same period last year was 4234 tons; in that week, the net sales of US soybeans to China in the 2024/2025 season were almost zero, and the cumulative purchase volume of China in the current year was 2248 tons [8]. - As of the week of May 2, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was 1.75 dollars per bushel, the previous week was 1.92 dollars per bushel, lower than 3.29 dollars per bushel in the same period in 2023; the truck quotation of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 49.03 cents per pound, the previous week was 49.32 cents per pound; the price of 48% protein soybean meal in Illinois soybean processing plants was 287.08 dollars per short ton, the previous week was 289 dollars per short ton; the average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 10.71 dollars per bushel, the previous week was 10.62 dollars per bushel [9]. - According to Conab data, the harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 97.7%, the previous week was 94.8%, the same period last year was 94.3%, and the five - year average was 96.3%, and the harvesting work was basically completed. The Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association (Anec) expects that the Brazilian soybean exports in May will reach 12.6 million tons, and the same period last year was 13.47 million tons [9]. - As of the week of May 7, 2025, the soybean harvesting progress in Argentina was 44.9%, lower than 47% in the same period last year, but the progress has accelerated significantly due to less precipitation. According to the crop weekly report of the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentine producers have harvested half of the early - sown soybeans, and the yields in the core agricultural areas and Cordoba Province are higher than expected [10]. - As of the week of May 2, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 4.7464 million tons, an increase of 151,600 tons from the previous week and 556,300 tons from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 82,100 tons, an increase of 7300 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 443,000 tons from the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 4.3008 million tons, an increase of 1.7473 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 475,100 tons from the same period last year; the national port soybean inventory was 5.532 million tons, an increase of 329,200 tons from the previous week and 83,500 tons from the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the national daily average soybean meal transaction volume was 264,600 tons, of which the spot transaction was 49,650 tons and the forward transaction was 214,950 tons, and the daily average total transaction volume in the week before the holiday was 25,300 tons; the daily average soybean meal提货 volume was 151,000 tons, and the previous week was 137,500 tons; the crushing volume of major oil mills was 1.846 million tons, and the previous week was 1.523 million tons; the soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises were 4.45 days, and the previous week was 5.04 days [11]. 3. Industry News - Brazilian farmers plan to expand the soybean planting area in the main planting areas by about 500,000 hectares in the 2025/2026 season starting in September. In the current season, Brazilian farmers planted a record 47.8 million hectares of soybeans and harvested 172.1 million tons [12]. - From April 28 to May 2, the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state was 623.09 reais per ton, and the previous week was 643.31 reais per ton. In that week, the soybean meal price in the state was 1691.22 reais per ton, and the soybean oil price was 5806.38 reais per ton [13]. - Analysts predict that the US soybean production in the 2025/2026 season will be 4.338 billion bushels, the estimated range is between 4.3 - 4.4 billion bushels, and the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum forecast is 4.37 billion bushels; the US soybean yield per acre in the 2025/2026 season will be 52.5 bushels, the estimated range is between 51.9 - 53.5 bushels per acre, and the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum forecast is 52.5 bushels per acre; the US soybean ending inventory in the 2025/2026 season is 362 million bushels, the estimated range is between 267 - 675 million bushels; the global soybean ending inventory in the 2025/2026 season is 126.02 million tons, the estimated range is between 120.74 - 137 million tons [13]. - The soybean exports of Mato Grosso state in the 2025/2026 season will decrease by 4% compared with the previous season. It is expected to export 29.8 million tons of soybeans in the 2025/2026 season, an increase of 180,000 tons from the previous monthly forecast, reflecting the increase in Chinese demand. It is expected that the demand for soybeans in Mato Grosso state in the 2025/2026 season will reach nearly 13.1 million tons, a 1.1% increase from the 2024/2025 season. The demand for soybeans from other regions of Brazil in Mato Grosso state in the 2025/2026 season is expected to decrease by 22% to 4.5 million tons compared with the 2024/2025 season [14]. - The Canadian rapeseed production in the 2025/2026 season is expected to be 18.2 million tons, the estimated range is 16.5 - 20.1 million tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous year. The total planting area is expected to be 8.59 million hectares, a 3.5% decrease from the previous year. The soil moisture in the main production areas in south - western Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba has been at the lowest level in six years since February, while the soil moisture in Alberta is still relatively healthy. The summer weather outlook shows that from June to August, the temperature will be higher than normal and the rainfall in the southern prairie will be lower than normal, which may put downward pressure on yields [14]. - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina raised the forecast of the 2024/2025 soybean harvest from 48.6 million tons to 50 million tons, saying that the yield is better than expected. Argentine producers have harvested half of the early - sown soybeans, and the yields in the core agricultural areas and Cordoba Province are higher than expected [15]. - The commercial sales of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/2025 season have reached 57% of the expected output, which is delayed compared with the same period last year and the historical average. Compared with last month, the soybean sales in Brazil increased by 6.3 percentage points. In the same period last year, the soybean sales completed 64.6% of the expected output, and the five - year average was even higher at 70.3%. Considering that the company has estimated the soybean output to reach a record 172.45 million tons, the soybean sales in the country have reached 97.88 million tons. In the 2025/2026 season, the Brazilian soybean sales volume has reached 7.9% of the expected output of 182.57 million tons, about 14.35 million tons. Although the sales have improved, they are still lower than 9.9% in the same period last year and far lower than the historical average of 17.2% [15]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of US soybean continuous contracts, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the soybean meal main contract trend, the spot - futures price difference of soybean meal, the M 9 - 1 month - to - month difference of soybean meal, the management fund CBOT net position, the regional soybean meal spot price, the precipitation and temperature in US soybean production areas, the Argentine soybean harvesting progress, the US soybean weekly net sales volume, the US soybean cumulative export sales volume to the world and China, the US soybean weekly export volume and weekly net sales volume to China, the US oil mill crushing profit, the soybean meal weekly average daily transaction volume and提货 volume, the port and oil mill soybean inventory, the oil mill weekly crushing volume and operating rate, the oil mill soybean meal inventory, and the feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days [16][17][18][21][23][25][29][31][32][36][38][39][40][43][45][46][47][48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil futures 2507 contract is expected to run strongly. It shows a volatile trend in the short - term, a volatile and slightly weak trend in the medium - term, and a volatile and slightly strong trend intraday [1][5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Performance - Last Friday night, the price of domestic crude oil futures rose slightly by 1.31% to 464.6 yuan per barrel [5] 3.2 Core Logic - OPEC+ oil - producing countries will further accelerate the pace of production increase in June, and US shale oil production is also growing steadily, which increases the expectation of oversupply in the oil market. After the digestion of negative sentiment, as the crude oil consumption peak season approaches in mid - May, the demand factor may gradually strengthen, supporting the crude oil futures price. The progress in China - US economic and trade negotiations boosts market risk appetite [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-05-12 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 宏观情绪改善，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 < END > 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：虽然国内煤制甲醇生产利润出现回落，但随着节前多套装置陆续重启，供应压力再度回 升并刷新周度产量历史新高。截止 2025 年 5 月 9 日当周，我国甲醇周度产量均值达 20 ...