Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market fluctuated narrowly, and the yield curve continued to steepen. The bond market first declined and then rose. Due to the stock - bond seesaw effect and other factors, long - term bond yields first increased and then decreased, with a slight overall increase, while short - term interest rates continued to decline [1]. - This week, the bond market is expected to continue the volatile trend. Although the fundamentals and capital situation are still favorable to the bond market, the removal of the direct mention of "timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts" in the second - quarter regular meeting announcement of the Monetary Policy Committee has postponed the market's interest rate cut expectations, and the bullish momentum of the bond market may be insufficient. In the context of crowded market trading, bond market volatility may increase [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market fluctuated narrowly last week, with long - term bond yields rising slightly. The main contract of the 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.11% cumulatively, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.66bp compared with the previous Friday, and the 1 - year Treasury bond yield fell 1.00bp, with the term spread continuing to widen [2]. - From June 23rd to June 25th, affected by factors such as the stock - bond seesaw effect and market expectations of policy announcements, the bond market was generally weak; on June 26th, the bond market warmed up slightly due to the lack of incremental policies at the press conference; on June 27th, the bond market continued to be strong in the morning and adjusted slightly in the late session [2]. 1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 177 interest - rate bonds were issued, an increase of 94 compared with the previous week. The issuance volume was 867.6 billion yuan, a slight increase of 13.1 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 780.7 billion yuan, a significant increase of 457.7 billion yuan [9]. - In terms of bond types, the issuance volume of local bonds increased significantly, while the issuance volume of Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds decreased. The net financing amount of policy - financial bonds and local bonds increased, while that of Treasury bonds decreased [9]. - The overall subscription demand for interest - rate bonds last week was acceptable. The average subscription multiples of Treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and local bonds were 4.12 times, 3.28 times, and 20.35 times respectively [12]. 2. Last Week's Important Events - On June 25th, the central bank conducted 300 billion yuan of Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) operations through interest - rate tender. In June, the central bank continued to increase the volume of MLF renewals, with a net injection of 118 billion yuan. This was to maintain the liquidity of the banking system and strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment. In the second half of the year, the MLF is expected to continue to be renewed with an increased volume [13]. 3. Real - Economy Observation - Last week, high - frequency data on the production side showed mixed trends. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt plants and daily pig iron output increased, while the operating rate of semi - steel tires continued to decline, and the blast furnace operating rate remained the same as the previous week [14]. - From the demand side, the BDI index continued to decline significantly, the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) continued to rise, and the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to increase slightly [14]. - In terms of prices, pork prices fell slightly, and most commodity prices declined. Crude oil and rebar prices fell, while copper prices continued to rise [14]. 4. Last Week's Liquidity Observation - Last week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net capital injection of 126.72 billion yuan. The R007 and DR007 both increased significantly, the issuance interest rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock banks increased significantly, the interest rates of national and stock - backed direct discounts for various terms increased, and the trading volume of pledged repurchase continued to increase. The leverage ratio of the inter - bank market fluctuated slightly downward [26][27][33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic data in May showed a mixed performance, with external demand weakening but government subsidies taking effect. While the economy demonstrated resilience in Q2, facing a growth target of 5% is not difficult, but pressure on the fundamentals will gradually emerge in Q3, making it necessary to introduce incremental policies. The bond market is desensitized to the fundamentals and will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. External Demand Weakens but Government Subsidies Take Effect, Economic Data Shows Mixed Performance - **Production Side: Industrial Production Weakens, Service Industry Strengthens** - In May, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value was 5.8%, lower than expected and the previous value, with external demand weakening and persistently low prices being the main reasons. The growth rate of the service industry production index was 6.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, due to policy support and holiday demand [1][13][14] - Looking ahead, the production growth rate is likely to maintain a resilient decline, with structural differentiation continuing. Industrial production will face downward pressure, but the year-on-year reading of industrial added value will not decline significantly. The growth rate of the service industry production may weaken, but will not decline sharply either [19] - **Demand Side: Manufacturing, Real Estate, and Infrastructure Growth Rates All Decline** - From January to May, the cumulative investment growth rate in manufacturing was 8.5%, continuing to decline. External demand weakening, the domestic supply-demand imbalance, and policy factors have affected corporate investment willingness, but policy support has maintained a certain level of resilience [22] - From January to May, the cumulative growth rate of general infrastructure was 10.42%, showing a slight decline. The slow issuance of local special bonds is the main reason. In the short term, infrastructure growth may face downward pressure, but it will rise again with policy support [26][30] - Most real estate data continued to weaken. The willingness of the residential sector to purchase homes with debt remains low, and real estate companies are facing increasing financial pressure. Policy aims to stabilize the real estate market while accelerating industry transformation [31][32][33] - **Demand Side: Retail Sales Growth Rate Exceeds Expectations and Rebounds** - In May, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 6.4%, higher than the previous value. Holiday factors and government subsidies have stimulated consumer demand, but the sustainability of consumption improvement needs to be observed. In Q3, incremental policies are expected to boost consumption [36][37][39] 2. The Bond Market is Desensitized to the Fundamentals and Maintains an Oscillatory Pattern in the Short Term - The fundamental environment is still favorable for the bond market, but market participants are well aware of this, so fundamental news is unlikely to drive the bond market to strengthen further. The yield curve is relatively flat, and the upward space for long-term bonds mainly depends on the performance of short-term bonds [40][41] - Short-term bonds are currently overvalued, and their upward movement requires confirmation of a continuous loosening of the money supply. In the short term, the market will be oscillatory, and the bond bull market may show a "stop-and-go" rhythm [42] - Strategies include paying attention to mid - line long positions on dips, noting that the opportunities for futures positive spreads have significantly decreased, and initial opportunities for steepening the yield curve have emerged, requiring close attention to changes in liquidity expectations [43][44][45]

Market Overview - The bond market continued to consolidate on June 9, with narrow fluctuations in interbank bond yields and mixed performance in government bond futures [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) continued to provide liquidity support through net injections in the open market, leading to a more relaxed funding environment [5] - Overnight pledged repo rates for deposit-taking institutions fell over 3 basis points, dropping below 1.4% [5] Bond Futures Performance - The 30-year main contract rose by 0.35%, while the 10-year main contract increased by 0.09%, with 5-year and 2-year contracts remaining unchanged [2] - The yield on the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债02" decreased by 0.50 basis points to 1.8700%, while the 10-year government bond "25附息国债11" saw an increase of 0.25 basis points to 1.6550% [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield increasing by 11.11 basis points to 4.506% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 1.3 basis points to 1.467% [3] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all saw slight declines [3] Primary Market - The Agricultural Development Bank of China issued financial bonds with varying yields, with the 3-year bond yielding 1.3286% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.23 [4] Funding Conditions - On June 9, the PBOC conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation with a fixed rate of 1.40%, injecting 173.8 billion yuan into the market [5] - The funding environment remains increasingly relaxed, with a significant net injection following a previous large-scale reverse repo operation [5] Economic Indicators - In May, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.3% year-on-year, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% [8] - China's exports in May increased by 4.8% year-on-year, while imports fell by 3.4%, resulting in a trade surplus of 103.22 billion USD [8] Institutional Perspectives - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that attention should be paid to tariffs and fundamental developments, with expectations of a slight increase in risk appetite due to U.S.-China tariff negotiations [9] - Guosheng Fixed Income anticipates that interest rates may reach new lows, driven by changes in fundamentals and improved market supply-demand dynamics [9]

最近一周，2年期、5年期、10年期、30年期国债期货震荡偏强，周涨幅分别为0.05%、0.11%、0.18%、 0.31%。目前债市演绎震荡行情，背后是多空博弈相对均衡的结果，经济基本面波浪式修复，宽松的资 金面也对市场产生支撑，这意味着利率上行有顶，而存单提价现象的存在，又约束了利率下行的空间。 从经济基本面来看，5月官方制造业PMI为49.5%，环比上升0.5个百分点，出口回暖带动PMI边际改善。 财新制造业PMI录得48.3%，环比下降2.1个百分点，近8个月来首次落于荣枯线下，其中生产指数和新 订单指数创下2022年12月以来新低。官方PMI与财新PMI的"劈叉"，本质上是"政策驱动的大企业复 苏"与"市场主导的中小企业困局"的缩影，映射了中小企业在外需波动和内需不足下的生存压力，以及 大企业对短期外需改善的响应。总之，中美关税降级可能继续对二季度制造业景气度形成支撑，但中长 期外需不确定性扰动犹存。 在全球经济复苏步伐放缓、地缘政治和贸易政策不确定性加剧的背景下，多国央行纷纷出手，释放出货 币宽松信号。6月5日，中国央行宣布开展1万亿元买断式逆回购操作，打破了央行通常在月末公布操作 的惯例，也释放出 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The three major indices opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.06%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.08%, and ChiNext Index up 0.08% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,378.22 points with a slight increase of 0.06%, while the Shenzhen Component Index reached 10,152.55 points, up 0.08% [2] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.22% to 42,427.74 points, while the S&P 500 rose slightly by 0.01% to 5,970.81 points [3] Group 2: Industry Insights - Huatai Securities reported a 2.9% month-on-month increase in lithium battery production for June, with total battery production reaching 107.7 GWh, driven by demand from new energy vehicles and favorable export conditions [4] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) anticipates a continued recovery in the small home appliance sector, supported by trade-in policies and low base effects, leading to improved profitability for companies in this space [5] - Tianfeng Securities indicated that the bond market is likely to maintain a volatile pattern, with potential trading opportunities arising from adjustments in monetary policy and market dynamics [6] Group 3: Strategic Positioning - Huaxi Securities noted that some funds may have begun to position themselves in the technology sector, driven by positive market sentiment regarding U.S.-China trade relations, despite potential risks from fluctuating tariff policies [7][8]

Group 1 - The central bank has been actively engaging in net liquidity injection operations to maintain a balanced and slightly loose funding environment in the market [1][13] - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated, reaching a high of 1.73% before retreating to 1.70%, with an overall increase of approximately 1 basis point for the week [1][5] - The upcoming week will see over 1.6 trillion yuan in reverse repos maturing, with a significant decrease in net government bond payments expected [1][6] Group 2 - The yield curve for government bonds showed mixed movements, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 4.96 basis points, while the 30-year yield increased by 0.7 basis points [2][3] - The issuance of interest rate bonds last week totaled 61 issues amounting to 394.21 billion yuan, a significant decrease compared to previous weeks [6] - The upcoming week is set to see the issuance of 32 interest rate bonds totaling 434.89 billion yuan, including 2.76 billion yuan in government bonds [6] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury market experienced a sell-off in May, with yields across various maturities rising by over 20 basis points, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [7][8] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes highlighted increased uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, with potential risks of rising unemployment and inflation [11][12] - Analysts suggest that the widening yield spread between 30-year and 10-year U.S. Treasuries reflects concerns over the safety of long-term bonds, with expectations of limited interest in purchasing them unless credible fiscal signals are provided [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the 30-year government bond futures are experiencing a slight decline, with the market showing mixed signals amid various economic factors [3][4] - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has seen active trading, with a recent price of 111.41 yuan and a turnover rate of 10.17%, indicating a vibrant market [3][4] - The overall bond market is in a state of fluctuation, influenced by factors such as tax periods, government debt supply, and the recent adjustments in deposit rates and LPR [4] Group 2 - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has reached a new high in scale at 7 billion yuan, reflecting strong investor interest [4][5] - Over the past five days, the ETF has experienced continuous net inflows, totaling 301 million yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 17.6 million yuan [5] - The ETF has shown a 14.68% increase in net value over the past year, ranking 3rd out of 378 index bond funds, indicating strong performance [5] Group 3 - The maximum drawdown for the 30-year government bond ETF since inception is 6.89%, with a tracking error of 0.071% over the past year, suggesting effective management [6] - The management fee for the ETF is set at 0.15%, while the custody fee is 0.05%, which are relatively low compared to industry standards [6]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend, with expectations for liquidity driven by recent interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, but the sentiment remains limited [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The bond market showed a fluctuating trend from May 19 to May 25, with adjustments in interest rate bonds and a slight compression in credit spreads [3]. - The average yield of medium to long-term pure bond funds was 0.08%, while short-term bond funds recorded an average yield of 0.05% [6]. - Major bond funds have seen significant fundraising activity, with 48 out of 85 newly established bond funds raising over 1 billion yuan, and 12 funds exceeding 5 billion yuan [7][8]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Analysts suggest maintaining duration allocation while increasing the proportion of swing trading due to the current market conditions [5][6]. - The market is focused on upcoming economic data, supply pressures, and changes in liquidity, but lacks factors that could lead to a trend-driven market [5]. - Following the recent interest rate cuts, there is an expectation that the central bank will continue to support liquidity, reducing concerns about significant increases in funding costs [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a volatile upward trend in yields, with expectations of continued fluctuations in the near future [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The short-term funding environment is stabilizing, with DR001 fluctuating around 1.5%, and attention is on the central bank's liquidity injection at the end of the month [1] - The overall cross-month liquidity has remained stable in recent months, indicating low risk in the near term [1] - The central tendency of DR001 is expected to remain around 1.4% [1] Group 2: Credit Market Insights - There is an opportunity to capitalize on the compression of credit spreads, as short-duration high-grade credit spreads have narrowed to low levels [1] - The market may shift towards longer-duration high-grade credit bonds, particularly those with maturities of over three years [1]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is currently experiencing a phase of cautious sentiment and narrow fluctuations, influenced by recent interest rate cuts and government bond supply dynamics [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Despite recent deposit rate cuts, the bond market has not reacted positively, as these cuts are viewed as a continuation of earlier rate reduction actions [2][3]. - From May 19 to May 23, the bond market showed a mixed performance, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 1 basis point to 1.69%, while the 3-year bond yield fell by 1 basis point to 1.49% [2]. - The issuance of long-term government bonds has been weak, with a notable decline in the bid-to-cover ratio for recent auctions, indicating reduced enthusiasm in the primary market [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Imbalance - There is a significant mismatch between the growth rates of government bonds and bank liabilities, with government bond growth increasing from 17.0% to 20.7%, while bank liabilities only rose from 6.3% to 7.4% [3]. - The pressure on banks to absorb new government bond supply is expected to increase, leading to a potential reduction in their demand for bonds in the secondary market [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The supply pressure in the bond market is likely to ease in June and July, with a projected increase in government bond maturities and a slowdown in new bond issuance [4]. - Analysts anticipate that the net issuance of government bonds will decrease significantly in the second half of the year, which could improve the supply-demand dynamics in the bond market [4]. - There is a possibility of a "bond bull" market re-emerging, driven by stable demand for fixed-income assets and a potential decline in interest rates [5].