免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客 为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 24,155.00 -120.00 343,223.00 30,750.00 | +205.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -5.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) +10473.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 2,672.00 -117.00 486,425.00 217,143.00 | +1.00↑ +11.00↑ -16569.00↓ +21062.00↑ | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes that the expansion of domestic demand is a strategic initiative rather than a temporary measure, requiring both strong policies and reforms to achieve a dynamic balance between supply and demand [1][3] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to implement a strategic plan for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, focusing on strengthening the domestic circulation and enhancing overall domestic demand [1] - The "Two New" policies have shown significant effects in stabilizing investment and expanding consumption, with over 840 billion yuan allocated for long-term special bonds supporting approximately 8,400 equipment upgrade projects, leading to a total investment exceeding 1 trillion yuan [1][2] Group 2 - The NDRC is working on plans to increase consumer income as a crucial aspect of boosting domestic demand, including actions to stabilize jobs and enhance income for urban and rural residents [2] - The government aims to optimize the structure of public investment, increasing the proportion of investments in livelihood projects to promote demand enhancement [2] - A recent package of policies has been deployed to promote domestic demand through financial and fiscal collaboration, including loan interest subsidies and guarantees to create a synergistic effect [3]

投资咨询业务资格:证监详可【2012】31号 ਵ E TD 场 与 流 TI TEE 股 損 T 情 综 访 回顾:昨日收盘,沪深300下跌0.33%至4718.9;上证50下跌0.17%至 3070.6;中证500下跌0.48%至8247.8;中证1000下跌1%至8182.8。行业板 块涨少跌多,贵金属、化学原料、水泥建材、化纤行业涨幅居前,通信设 备、光伏设备、航天航空、电源设备、电池、计算机设备、电子元件板块 跌幅居前。沪深京三市成交额28044亿,较昨日放量720亿。 热评:1月20日,财政部副部长廖岷在国新办新闻发布会上表示,2026 年,财政部门将继续实施更加积极的财政政策,概括起来就是"总量增加 、结构更优、效益更好、动能更强"。2026年财政赤字、债务总规模和支 出总量将保持必要水平,确保总体支出力度"只增不减"、重点领域保障 "只强不弱"。同时,国家发改委副主任王昌林表示,今年坚持把宏观政 策的发力点放在做强国内大循环上,全方位扩大国内需求,并研究制定出 台2026-2030年扩大内需战略实施方案。总体来说,"两会"落地前,国 内政策预期犹存,具体扩内需等政策或陆续推出。 宏观金融数据日报 ...

1月20日，国新办举行新闻发布会。国家发展改革委有关负责人在会上表示，我国将研究制定并出台 2026—2030年扩大内需战略实施方案，以新供给创造新需求，提供强有力的创新举措和要素保障。 当前，我国经济面临"供强需弱"的问题，亟需通过扩大内需、优化供给，推动供需在更高水平上实现动 态平衡与良性循环，加快形成更多依靠内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式。 二是着力提高居民收入。居民收入增长是全面扩大内需的基础前提。2026年我国将制定实施城乡居民增 收计划，在财政支出中统筹"投资于物"与"投资于人"，优化政府投资结构，提高民生类项目的投资与支 出比重，从而有效带动需求提升。 当前我国经济发展中周期性、结构性问题相互交织，全面扩大内需既要做好短期逆周期调节、稳定需 求，更要依靠改革构建经济循环畅通的新模式。在生产、分配、交换、消费四个环节中，分配与交换更 依赖于体制机制支撑。为此，应加快推进全国统一大市场建设，持续优化社会分配格局，为内需增长提 供坚实制度保障。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 从年度短期政策来看，2026年我国将在优化"两新"（设备更新和消费品以旧换新）政策基础上实施新机 制。根据已发布文 ...

Group 1: International Market Overview - The global stock markets experienced declines, with the German DAX index down 1.08% at 24689.67 points, the French CAC40 index down 0.61% at 8062.58 points, and the UK FTSE 100 index down 0.67% at 10126.78 points [11] - In the US market, the Dow Jones fell 1.76% to 48488.59 points, the S&P 500 dropped 2.06% to 6796.86 points, and the Nasdaq decreased by 2.39% to 22954.32 points [11] - The Asia-Pacific market saw the Hong Kong Hang Seng index down 0.29% at 26487.51 points, the Hang Seng Tech index down 1.16% at 5683.44 points, and the Nikkei 225 index down 1.11% at 52991.1 points [11] Group 2: Domestic News - The State Council Vice Premier He Lifeng attended the World Economic Forum 2026 annual meeting and delivered a speech, engaging in discussions with US and UK financial leaders on economic and trade issues [12] - A comprehensive policy package was introduced to promote domestic demand, including a 500 billion yuan special guarantee plan for private investment and interest subsidies for small and micro enterprises in key industries [13] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized that macroeconomic policies in 2026 will focus on strengthening domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand [14] Group 3: Company News - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.44%, and the Wind China Concept Technology Leaders Index dropped 2.61%, with notable declines in companies such as JinkoSolar down over 12% and CenturyLink down over 10% [15] - Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella stated that energy costs will be a key factor in determining which countries succeed in the AI race, highlighting the importance of energy in driving GDP growth [15] - Samsung is accelerating the production process at its first wafer fab in the US, aiming to prepare for mass production of Tesla's AI chips in the second half of 2026 [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and the price of aluminum is expected to have a short - term high - level consolidation [2][3][4] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is expected to affect 741,000 tons of building steel output, and Anhui short - process steel enterprises' shutdown will affect about 16,200 tons of daily output [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. The winter storage was sluggish, providing weak support for prices. It will run in an oscillating and consolidating manner [2][3] Aluminum - Macro - level: The market is nervous about Trump's new tariff threat to Europe, which will negatively impact the aluminum demand expectation. China's policy supports the domestic market [2] - Fundamental: Snow in Henan affected transportation, weakening processing enterprise demand. New electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia are ramping up production. The supply of domestic bauxite is gradually improving, and its price may decline. The downstream processing enterprise start - up rate increased slightly but is expected to be weak in the short term. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased by 19,000 tons to 749,000 tons on January 19 [2][3] - The aluminum price is expected to have a short - term high - level consolidation, and attention should be paid to macro - events and downstream feedback [4]

省部级主要领导干部学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神专题研讨班20日上午在中央党校（国家行政学院）开班。中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主 席习近平在开班式上发表重要讲话强调，要把学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神不断引向深入，更好统一思想、凝心聚力，在党中央坚强领导下扎实做好 各项工作，努力实现"十五五"良好开局。 坚持发扬民主 集思广益 坚持规划法定原则等 我们要坚定制度自信 不断结合新的实际 把这一优势发扬光大 2026年1月20日 习近平在省部级主要领导干部学习贯彻 党的二十届四中全会精神专题研讨班开班式上 发表重要讲话 2026年1月20日 习近平在省部级主要领导干部学习贯彻 党的二十届四中全会精神专题研讨班开班式上 发表重要讲话 在制定实施五年规划的 长期实践中 我们党创造积累了丰富经验 包括坚持党中央集中统一领导 坚持从实际出发 坚持全国一盘棋 帶的一十层四面4 对"十五五"时期经济社会发展 作出战略部署 要全面深刻准确领会和把握 全面 就是要以全局视野领会全会精神 将各项部署作为一个整体来把握 不能顾此失彼 深刻 就是要知真然又知其所以然 既明自是什么 又明白为什么 怎么做 頁 准确 就是要精准把握 ...

当前，我国经济面临"供强需弱"的问题，亟需通过扩大内需、优化供给，推动供需在更高水平 上实现动态平衡与良性循环，加快形成更多依靠内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长的经济发展模 式。 构建新发展模式是一项系统性工程和长期任务，也是谋划制定2026—2030年扩大内需战略实 施方案的重要目标。落实这一任务，首先需要从战略层面将宏观政策的着力点放在做强国内大 循环上，全面扩大国内需求，同时把发展经济的着力点放在实体经济上，加快构建现代化产业 体系。通过以新需求牵引新供给、以新供给创造新需求，促进消费与投资、供给与需求之间形 成良性互动，不断增强国内大循环的内生动力和可靠性。 在供需衔接方面，需进一步完善市场经济体制，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，促进要素自由 流动，充分激发市场活力，形成公平竞争、优胜劣汰的市场环境。当前，除了深化要素改革， 在新旧动能转换的关键阶段，需重点治理"内卷式"竞争，推动竞争方式从"拼价格"向"优价 值"转变。同时，完善市场准入、公平竞争、产能退出等机制，加强产能调控，化解供大于求 的阶段性问题。 1月20日，国新办举行新闻发布会。国家发展改革委有关负责人在会上表示，我国将研究制定 并出台2026 ...

昨天，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍落实中央经济工作会议精神，推动"十五五"实现良好开 局有关情况。对中国经济运行中存在的供强需弱矛盾，国家发展改革委副主任王昌林表示，将把宏观政 策的发力点放在做强国内大循环上，全方位扩大国内需求，研究制定出台2026—2030年扩大内需战略实 施方案。 同时，还要坚持把市场运行的调控点放在纵深推进全国统一大市场建设上，充分激发市场活力。重点是 要综合整治"内卷式"竞争，实现从"卷价格"向优价值转变。完善市场准入、公平竞争、产能退出等机 制，加强产能调控，积极化解供大于求的阶段性矛盾。进一步细化地方招商引资鼓励和禁止事项边界， 规范地方经济促进行为。加强重点行业价格监管，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，形成优质优价、良 性竞争的市场秩序。大力实施质量品牌战略，引导破解"内卷式"竞争。 文/本报记者 董鑫 统筹/刘晓雪 王昌林表示，当前，中国经济发展中需求不足的问题较为突出，同时也存在供给不充分的问题。必须扩 大内需、优化供给，推动供需在更高水平上实现动态平衡和良性循环，促进形成更多由内需主导、消费 拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式。 坚持把宏观政策的发力点放在做强国内大循环上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current economic situation in China is characterized by strong supply but weak demand, prompting the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance to emphasize the need for macroeconomic policies that strengthen domestic circulation and expand domestic demand [1][3][4]. Group 1: Domestic Demand Expansion Strategy - The NDRC plans to formulate a five-year strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, focusing on creating new demand through innovative supply [1][3][4]. - The strategy aims to achieve a dynamic balance between supply and demand, promoting an economic model driven by domestic demand and consumption [3][4]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Support Measures - The Ministry of Finance will maintain necessary levels of fiscal deficit, debt, and expenditure, ensuring that overall spending increases, particularly in key areas such as consumption and social welfare [1][5]. - A total of 1.3 trillion yuan (approximately 1.9 billion USD) in long-term special bonds will be issued to support consumption, with 300 billion yuan allocated specifically for the "old-for-new" consumption subsidy program [5]. Group 3: Consumer Incentives and Support - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly boosted consumption, with expectations that it will drive sales of related goods by over 2.6 trillion yuan (approximately 3.7 billion USD) [5]. - The NDRC will implement personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies, extending the implementation period to the end of 2026, and expanding the support scope to include credit card installment payments [10]. Group 4: Support for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) - A new loan interest subsidy policy for SMEs will provide a 1.5% annual subsidy on fixed asset loans, with a cap of 50 million yuan (approximately 7 million USD) per enterprise [18][19]. - The policy targets key industries such as new energy vehicles, advanced manufacturing, and production services, aiming to stimulate investment and support industrial upgrades [19][20]. Group 5: Regulatory and Market Improvements - The NDRC will work on eliminating unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector and establishing management methods for new consumption formats and scenarios [12][14]. - Efforts will be made to enhance the efficiency of fund usage and support for SMEs, including lowering investment thresholds and improving project approval processes [16][21].