来源：市场资讯 （来源：吴说） 作者：Agarwood Capital 链接：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lHNhAcbyWae3IOurCy3o_g 声明：本文为转载内容，读者可通过原文链接获得更多信息。如作者对转载形式有任何异议，请联系我 们，我们将按照作者要求进行修改。转载仅用于信息分享，不构成任何投资建议，不代表吴说观点与立 场。 投资结论与总体框架 1. 核心命题 未来三到五年，黄金的核心逻辑来自「美元主导的旧秩序正在衰退」，各国央行与主权机构、长线投资 者需要继续为美元与美元债的多维风险配置对手资产。黄金在这个过程中被视为对美元秩序的外部锚， 也是最关键的「制裁风险与信用风险保险」。 在这个视角下： • 第一层驱动是美元秩序本身的风险重估，包括资产冻结、地缘冲突、盟友信任侵蚀、美国财政不可持 续和内政混乱动荡 • 第二层驱动是央行与主权机构的储备再配置行为，央行购金形成跨周期的结构性需求 • 第三层是实质利率、ETF 资金流等引导的机构和个人投资需求，主要作用在于调节黄金价格在价格上 升通道中的折溢价与波段形态 • 供给端在短期反应有限，长期则透过「矿产产量趋于平台、品位 ...

1月30日，年初突破4500美元时的势如破竹，登顶5600美元后的骤然回调，2026年初的国际金价用一轮 极致的波动，将"该不该下车"的灵魂拷问推向了全球市场的焦点。自2023年开启的三年连涨态势中，黄 金在2025年迎来爆发式行情，全年涨幅飙至67%，创下近四十余年以来的最佳年度表现之一。支撑这波 壮阔涨势的核心逻辑——央行购金的刚需托底、美联储降息的周期红利、美元信用松动下的货币属性回 归，在本轮剧烈回调后，是否已悄然瓦解？而全球地缘风险的持续发酵、供需缺口的不断扩大，又能否 继续为金价注入上行动能？市场的多空分歧，在波动中愈发清晰。回顾此轮行情，黄金的上涨并非单一 因素驱动，而是多重利好共振的结果。从央行层面来看，2022年以来全球央行购金行为发生结构性转 变，黄金正成为储备资产中美元的主要挑战者，尤其是波兰央行放弃黄金占储备30%的比例目标，转而 设定700吨的绝对持有量目标，即便金价处于高位仍持续增配。2025年全球央行黄金净增持量创纪录， 新兴市场央行更是战略性增持黄金，塞尔维亚、韩国等多个国家均明确表示有意扩大黄金储备，这种刚 性需求为金价构筑了坚实的底部支撑。与此同时，美联储2025年持续降息 ...

对于全球黄金市场来说，2025年是"破纪录"的一年。 1月29日，世界黄金协会发布的2025年《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，2025年，全球黄金总需求达到了5002吨，创历史新高。 持续的地缘政治、以及世界经济的不确定性共同推动黄金投资需求的攀升，使得黄金需求总金额达到5550亿美元。 2025年，平均金价攀升至3431美元/盎司的历史峰值，同比涨幅高达44%，全年共计53次刷新历史纪录。 就在报告发布之际，现货黄金延续近期的涨势，今日盘中一度冲高至5595.41美元/盎司，再创新纪录。 截至目前，现货黄金报5531.72美元/盎司，涨幅为2.1%。 投资需求成核心驱动力 《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，2025年全球黄金总需求达5002吨，创下历史新高。 其中，四季度黄金需求表现再创纪录，为2025年全球黄金市场的亮眼表现收官。 持续的地缘政治和经济不确定性推动了黄金投资需求的大幅攀升，使得全年黄金需求总金额达5550亿美元。 值得一提的是，如此强劲的需求主要有三大核心力量共同推动。 一是投资热情空前高涨。 2025年，全球黄金ETF持仓量激增801吨，是有史以来第二强的年度表现。 仅第四季度就流入175吨， ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 策略深度报告 黄金大涨的背后: 美元信用周期的终结与黄金定价权的重塑 报告日期： 2026年01月29日 ◼ 分析师：杨芹芹 ◼ SAC编号：S1050523040001 ◼ 分析师：孙航 ◼ SAC编号：S1050525050001 投 资 要 点 核心观点：黄金传统研究框架对本轮黄金大涨的解释力十分有限，主要是短期美元指数走低和中长期美元信用替代逻辑的叠加，市场情绪和动 量资金驱动。随着美元信用裂缝的扩大，黄金中长期上涨的逻辑在强化。但由于长期逻辑短期化交易较为极致，黄金投资盘多头回落、实业盘 空头较低，PCR处于历史底部，短期黄金市场 "裸多"风险值得警惕。特别是在白银"空头拥挤+高波动率+高持仓"的背景下，白银高位回 落拖累黄金的概率在提升。 传统框架崩塌：过去美元、实际利率和风险定价的黄金研究框架解释力显著减弱。非框架因素解释贡献再度创新高。从大宗商品联动角度来看， 金油比阶段性失效，仅有铜保持一定的正贡献，比特币则是受限于流动性，出现了短期贡献的走弱。 中长期的新驱动力：去美元化与央行购金。非美国家持有的黄金价值已超过美债价值，显示出对美元信用的不信任的共识已经形成。非美央 ...

截至2026年1月29日 14:27，有色金属ETF(512400)一度涨超4%，现涨2.35%，盘中换手12.52%，成交 57.37亿元，市场交投活跃。跟踪指数中证申万有色金属指数成分股铜陵有色上涨10.06%，西部黄金上 涨10.01%，湖南黄金上涨10.01%，云南铜业，盛和资源等个股跟涨。 有色金属ETF(512400)，场外联接(A类：004432；C类：004433)。 2025年全年金价涨幅达67%，创近年新高，主要驱动力来自央行持续购金、美元走弱、关税与贸易风险 上升以及强劲的期权市场活动；其中，新兴市场央行正加速减持美债、增持黄金，波兰央行已批准150 吨黄金采购计划。展望2026年，世界黄金协会指出，尽管短期或受波动率上行影响出现宽幅调整，但中 长期黄金走势仍将由结构性因素主导，包括地缘冲突常态化、美联储政策独立性受质疑及全球货币体系 信任重构等核心逻辑未变。 1月29日午后，金、银、铜全线大涨，现货黄金强势逼近5600美元关口，再创新高。白银连续主力合约 日内触及涨停，沪铜主力合约突破11万元/吨，日内涨幅达8%，同样创历史新高。 有色金属ETF(512400)紧密跟踪中证申万有色金属 ...

Group 1 - COMEX gold prices have surpassed $5,600, with spot gold exceeding $5,500, marking a historical high for nine consecutive days [1] - The launch of the only gold mining ETF in Hong Kong, E Fund Gold Mining (2824.HK), is set for January 30, providing investors with a tool to invest in leading global gold mining companies [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman indicated that inflation is primarily driven by tariffs rather than demand factors, leading to a rapid increase in spot gold prices after the announcement [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities highlights that gold prices have been reaching historical highs since 2025, influenced by factors such as de-dollarization, Federal Reserve independence, central bank gold purchases, U.S. tariffs, geopolitical conflicts, and inflation expectations [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, the allocation of gold as an alternative currency is expected to rise due to the restructuring of the global financial order and ongoing volatility in financial markets [2] - E Fund Gold Mining (2824.HK) focuses on the four major gold production regions and selects 30 leading gold mining stocks, including significant holdings in Zijin Mining and Zhaojin Mining, while also covering major overseas companies like Newmont and Barrick Gold [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current surge in gold prices, with spot gold surpassing $5,300 per ounce and COMEX futures reaching new highs, has created a heated market sentiment, leading to concerns among investors about profit-taking and potential corrections [1][14]. Historical Highs Review - Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, there have been three significant historical high breakthroughs in gold prices, excluding the current surge [1][14]. - The analysis of these historical breakthroughs reveals three core patterns that are essential for understanding the current market dynamics [3][16]. Key Historical Breakthroughs - **2008 Historical High**: Broke through $1,000 per ounce in March 2008, with a maximum drawdown of 31.1% lasting over 18 months, driven by the subprime crisis, Fed rate cuts, and a weakening dollar [4][17]. - **2020 Historical High**: Surpassed $2,000 per ounce in August 2020, with a maximum drawdown of 20.0% over 39 months, influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic and global economic uncertainty [4][17]. - **2025 Historical High**: Expected to break through $3,000 per ounce in March 2025, with a projected maximum drawdown of 7.8%, driven by geopolitical tensions and central bank gold purchases [4][17]. Core Patterns from Historical Analysis - **Pattern One**: The sustainability of the driving logic is crucial for the continuation of price increases. Short-term event-driven breakthroughs are likely to face deeper corrections, while long-term trends provide more stable price movements [5][18]. - **Pattern Two**: Post-breakthrough fluctuations are common, but the upward cycles tend to last longer than the adjustment periods. Historical data shows that gold has an annualized return of about 7% since 1971, with adjustments being temporary pauses in a long-term upward trend [6][19]. - **Pattern Three**: Central bank and institutional holdings are key indicators for assessing post-breakthrough market conditions. Data shows that previous price corrections were associated with declines in central bank gold purchases, while current trends indicate sustained buying, supporting price stability [7][20]. Current Market Dynamics - The current gold price surge to $5,300 per ounce reflects a continuation of the upward trend since 2025, characterized by multiple favorable factors [8][21]. - **Common Factors**: The current rise in gold prices is supported by three main factors: expectations of loose monetary policy, high global risk aversion, and significant central bank gold purchases [9][22]. - **Distinct Differences**: The current market exhibits unique characteristics, such as unprecedented levels of central bank gold purchases and high elasticity of speculative holdings, which may amplify short-term volatility but do not alter the long-term trend [10][23][24]. Short-term Risks - Despite the long-term upward trend being intact, the high price level has already priced in optimistic expectations, leading to an increased probability of short-term risk releases [12][25]. - Key short-term risks include potential technical corrections due to overbought conditions, adjustments in Fed rate cut expectations, and profit-taking by speculative funds, which could exacerbate market volatility [12][26].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing a significant surge, with prices breaking through the $5,300 per ounce mark, driven by structural factors such as expanding U.S. fiscal debt, a weakening dollar, geopolitical uncertainties, and continued central bank purchases of gold [1][15]. Price Movement - On January 28, international gold prices reached new historical highs, with London gold first breaking the $5,200 per ounce mark and then surpassing $5,300 per ounce, closing at $5,285.485 per ounce, a daily increase of 2% [2][15]. - COMEX gold futures also saw a substantial rise, increasing by 4.38% to $5,305.3 per ounce, with intraday highs reaching $5,306 [4][17]. Domestic Market Impact - The rise in gold prices has led to significant increases in domestic gold jewelry prices, with some brands exceeding 1,620 yuan per gram [5][18]. - The surge in gold prices has prompted public funds to implement risk control measures, with E Fund's gold-themed LOF suspending subscriptions to cool the market [5][18]. Factors Supporting Gold Prices - The rapid increase in gold prices since the beginning of 2026 has been attributed to multiple factors, including heightened geopolitical risks, rising safe-haven demand, a weakening dollar index, and ongoing central bank gold purchases [9][22]. - As of January 28, gold prices have risen over 20% since the start of the year, from approximately $4,330 per ounce to above $5,300 per ounce, reflecting a nearly $1,000 increase in less than a month [9][22]. Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the upward trend in gold prices is likely to continue, with potential challenges around short-term volatility. The price may test the $5,500 per ounce level in the near term [11][24]. - Structural factors supporting gold prices, such as U.S. fiscal debt expansion and geopolitical uncertainties, remain unchanged, leading several institutions to raise their gold price targets [11][24]. - Investors are advised to approach gold investments cautiously, considering their risk tolerance and market conditions, while avoiding chasing high prices [11][24].

【基本面消息】 宝城期货：特朗普讲话引发美元跳水 夜盘上演V型反转！金银尾盘强势拉升 数据显示，1月28日上海黄金现货价格报价1185.00元/克，相较于期货主力价格（1186.20元/克）贴水1.2 元/克。 【黄金期货最新行情】 根据美国普查局最新数据，由于移民大幅放缓，去年美国人口增长明显降温。数据显示，截至2025年7 月1日的一年里，美国人口仅增加180万人，增幅为0.5%，总人口接近3.42亿。这是自2021年以来最慢的 增长速度，既反映出移居美国的移民减少，也反映出离开美国的人数增多。 | 1月28日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 1186.20 | 1.52% | 430617 | 222473 | 花旗发布最新年度商品展望报告称，黄金已从"成本定价"转向由财富再配置与供给刚性决定，在牛市情 景下或上探6000美元/盎司。德意志银行认为，美元走弱、供需结构性失衡以及地缘政治风险将大概率 在今年推升黄金涨至6000美元/盎司。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【机构 ...

文｜财华社 进入2026年，黄金的上涨之势未曾稍歇，金价还在一路攀升，并于1月26日历史首次突破5100美元的整数关口，但随后遭遇回落。而截至1月27日发稿时 间，金价再涨近1.6%，现报5085美元/盎司，非常接近前一日创下的历史新高价位。 有分析称，近年金价飙升主要围绕去美元化、美联储独立性、央行购金、美国关税、地缘冲突以及传统实际利率定价框架相关的通胀、就业及美联储降息 预期等逻辑交易。 多家企业购入金矿资产 同期，江西铜业也发出正式要约，拟以约8.67亿英镑现金收购英国上市公司索尔黄金（SolGold），其主要目标为拥有厄瓜多尔卡斯卡维尔铜金矿项目。 机构对黄金后市有何看法？ 需要指出的是，金价新高之际的扩产引起了投资者的广泛关注。而从机构观点来看，金价的长期前景似乎仍有值得期待的地方。 建信期货今日发文称，从长周期看，地缘政治风险冲击全球政治经济贸易货币体系，地缘政治风险带来的避险需求和全球贸易货币体系重组带来的储备分 散化需求持续推高金价波动中枢；特朗普2.0以美国利益为核心推行关税武器化并循丛林法则重构地缘战略空间，全球政治经济贸易货币体系加速重组， 黄金长周期牛市基础进一步巩固，目前金价继续运 ...