Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations[2] - The Fed plans to purchase $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds starting December 12 to maintain adequate reserve levels[7] - The decision to lower rates was supported by signs of a weakening labor market, with private sector employment unexpectedly decreasing by 32,000 in November, the largest drop since March 2023[6] Group 2: Economic Projections - The Fed's dot plot indicates an expectation of one rate cut next year, with inflation projected to slow to around 2.4% by year-end[3] - GDP growth forecasts were raised, with the largest increase of 0.5 percentage points for next year, while unemployment rate expectations were slightly lowered by 0.1 percentage points for 2027[3] - Core PCE inflation is expected to remain above 2.3% in the first half of 2026, influenced by high tariffs and other economic factors[10] Group 3: Internal Disagreements - There were notable dissenting votes during the rate decision, with three members opposing the cut, reflecting internal divisions on inflation and employment risks[2] - The dot plot revealed significant divergence among committee members regarding future rate paths, indicating ongoing disagreements within the Fed[9] - The Fed's statement included new language suggesting a higher threshold for future rate cuts, indicating a cautious approach moving forward[9]

美联储将于本周四凌晨公布12月议息会议结果，市场普遍预计本次将迎来25个基点的降息。 根据 CME"美联储观察"数据，降息概率高达88.6%，几乎已被市场视为"板上钉钉"。随着通胀回落、就业降温 信号增强，政策环境正走向宽松。 通胀持续降温 支持政策宽松 受此前美国政府关门影响，9月整体个人消费支出PCE通胀数据延迟一个多月才发布。该数据显示，美国9 月PCE物价指数环比上涨0.3%，与预期和前值持平；同比上涨2.8%，好于前值的2.7%。9月核心PCE物价 指数环比上涨0.2%，与预期和前值持平；同比上涨2.8%，低于前值的2.9%。数据显示，9月美国个人收 入超预期，但支出低于预期。美国消费者支出停滞不前，美国人在该国政府关门之前就已感到财务吃紧。 总体来看，通胀继续维持在2.8%的温和区间，距离美联储长期目标2%不远，为货币政策宽松铺平道路。 核心PCE被美联储视为衡量长期通胀趋势的关键指标，此次低于预期的数据为降息进一步提供空间。 就业市场出现疲态 结构性分化加深 劳动力市场方面，最新ADP就业数据显示，截至11月22日的四周内，美国私人企业平均每周新增就业 4,750人，较此前连续四周负增长有所改善 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed's dovish interest rate cut and balance - sheet expansion operation in this meeting supported the prices of gold and silver, but the precious metal prices have already fully reflected the expectation of loose monetary policy. The silver price has entered an accelerated upward phase, and short - cycle hourly technical pattern breakouts may indicate short - term peaks for silver. It is recommended to take profits at an appropriate time, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold being 940 - 989 yuan/gram and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver being 13232 - 14500 yuan/kilogram [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold fell 0.12% to 954.76 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.78% to 14166.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4255.20 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver at 62.20 dollars/ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.13%, and the US dollar index was 98.57 [2] 3.2 Fed Meeting Analysis - **Internal Disagreements**: The hawkish degree of the Fed officials' voting results was lower than market expectations, with only Goolsbee and Schmidt voting against the rate cut. Trump - affiliated Milan still supported a 50 - basis - point rate cut [2] - **Balance - Sheet Expansion**: After stopping QT in early December, the Fed started balance - sheet expansion, limiting the scope to short - term US Treasury bonds and interest - bearing Treasury bonds within 3 years to ease liquidity issues, with the first - month bond - purchasing scale being 40 billion dollars [2] - **Powell's Stance**: Powell's statements on inflation and employment were dovish. He believed that without new tariffs, commodity inflation would peak in the first quarter of next year, and service - sector inflation was declining. Regarding the job market, he thought the labor market slowdown continued and employment figures were overestimated. His view on the subsequent interest - rate policy path was "wait - and - see" [2][3] - **Dot Plot**: The neutral interest rate in 2026 shown in the dot plot was the same as in September, with only one 25 - basis - point rate cut priced in for next year. A more aggressive rate - cut forecast (2.00 - 2.25% next year) was likely from Director Milan. A new dot plot will be released at the March 18th meeting [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The silver price has entered an accelerated upward phase. Pay attention to the resistance level of 14500 yuan/kilogram for Shanghai silver. It is recommended to take profits at an appropriate time. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 940 - 989 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 13232 - 14500 yuan/kilogram [3] 3.4 Data Summary - Gold: For COMEX gold on December 10, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 4258.30 dollars/ounce (up 0.51% from the previous day), the trading volume was 180,500 lots (up 3.51%), the position was 450,400 lots (down 1.47%), and the inventory was 1123 tons (up 0.03%). For Shanghai gold, the closing price of the active contract was 956.40 yuan/gram (up 0.51%), the trading volume was 277,600 lots (down 4.89%), the position was 327,500 lots (down 0.52%), and the inventory was 91.30 tons (unchanged) [5] - Silver: For COMEX silver on December 10, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 62.20 dollars/ounce (up 1.70% from the previous day), the trading volume was 155,300 lots (down 1.85%), the position was 155,300 lots (down 1.85%), and the inventory was 14,196 tons (up 0.13%). For Shanghai silver, the closing price of the active contract was 14,373.00 yuan/kilogram (up 5.63%), the trading volume was 2,849,600 lots (up 39.08%), the position was 809,800 lots (up 5.08%), and the inventory was 741.85 tons (up 3.35%) [5] 3.5 Price Difference Analysis - Gold: On December 10, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference was - 11.22 yuan/gram (- 49.41 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was - 5.40 yuan/gram (- 23.80 dollars/ounce) [51] - Silver: On December 10, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference was 355.34 yuan/kilogram (1.57 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 363.80 yuan/kilogram (1.60 dollars/ounce) [51][57]

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core Views - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and there were differences within the committee. The US faces challenges of rising prices and a cooling labor market. The market shows different trends for various commodities, with some in a state of shock, some with potential for short - term rebound, and others facing supply - demand imbalances [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals Gold and Silver - Gold prices were affected by the Fed's interest rate cut. Silver reached a new high, breaking through 60. The market showed certain price fluctuations and trading volume changes [14][18]. Copper - The decline of the US dollar supported copper prices. There were some impacts on supply from mining companies, and China's copper imports increased year - on - year [22][24]. Zinc - Zinc prices fell from a high level, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory [25]. Lead - The reduction in inventory limited the decline of lead prices [28]. Tin - There were disturbances in tin supply [31]. Aluminum, Alumina and Casting Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum prices continued to fluctuate, alumina had a slight rebound, and casting aluminum alloy followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum [34]. Platinum and Palladium - Platinum faced obvious pressure at the upper level, while palladium fluctuated upward [39][41]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The structural surplus of nickel changed, but the game contradictions remained unchanged. The supply and demand of stainless steel continued to be weak, and the cost - support logic was strengthened [43]. Lithium Carbonate - The news of large - scale production resumption was repeated, and the price was in a high - level shock [48]. 3.2 Industrial Minerals Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, the price was affected by factors such as inventory and cost. The details of the equity of the polysilicon platform company were announced, and the market suggested buying on dips [51][53]. Iron Ore - The downstream demand space of iron ore was limited, and the valuation was high [54]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Affected by the sentiment of the real estate sector, rebar and hot - rolled coil prices were in a low - level shock [57][60]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Both ferrosilicon and manganese silicon were in a wide - range shock [62]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke and coking coal prices were in a wide - range shock [65]. Logs - Log prices were in a low - level shock [69]. 3.3 Chemicals Paraxylene (PX), Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) and Monoethylene Glycol (MEG) - PX was in a high - level shock market with cost support. PTA had cost support and was suitable for positive spread trading. MEG's device production cut scale expanded, and the downward space was limited [73][81]. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber was in a shock operation, and synthetic rubber was in a range operation [84][87]. Asphalt - Due to geopolitical factors, asphalt had a phased slight rebound [91]. Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) and Polypropylene (PP) - LLDPE prices fell unilaterally, and the basis weakened again. PP faced upstream selling pressure, and the price difference between powder and granular materials was inverted [103][105]. Caustic Soda - It was not advisable to chase short positions in caustic soda, as it faced high - production and high - inventory situations [108][109]. Pulp - Pulp prices were in a shock - upward trend. Although there was no significant change in the supply - demand fundamentals, the market was affected by factors such as low - valuation capital speculation [9][114]. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets was stable, but the market faced problems of weak demand and high inventory [117][118]. Methanol - Methanol prices were under pressure. In the short term, it was in a weak operation, and in the medium - term, the high - supply pressure was the main contradiction [120][123]. Urea - Urea prices were in a shock operation. The demand side improved stage by stage, and the price was supported by the reduction of inventory, but there was also policy pressure [125][128]. Styrene - Styrene was in a short - term shock. The pure benzene market was in a bottom - shock state, and the supply pressure of styrene was not large [129][130]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash changed little, with stable prices and weak downstream demand [132]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) and Propylene - LPG prices had wide - range fluctuations affected by cost factors. Propylene supply had an incremental expectation, and the upward driving force was limited [135][136]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - PVC prices were in a low - level shock. The high - production and high - inventory structure was difficult to change in the short term [144][145]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices continued to decline, and the center of the low - sulfur fuel oil market shifted downward at night [147]. 3.4 Shipping - The PA alliance's performance exceeded expectations, driving the sentiment of the container freight index (European line) to improve. The 2602 contract was in a shock market in the medium - term, and it was advisable to short the 2604 contract on rallies [149][161]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Both short fiber and bottle chip faced medium - term pressure, and it was advisable to short the processing margin on rallies [163][164]. Offset Printing Paper - It was advisable to wait and see for offset printing paper, with stable prices and weak market demand [166][167]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene was in a short - term shock, with inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand in the short term, but the supply was expected to shrink in the future [171][172]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Palm oil was expected to have a short - term rebound after the release of negative factors. Soybean oil fluctuated mainly due to insufficient driving force from US soybeans [174][179]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Soybean meal might follow the rebound of US soybeans. Soybean prices were in a shock [180][183]. Corn - Corn prices were in a shock operation, with price changes in different regions [184][185]. Sugar - Sugar prices were in a low - level shock, with different production and consumption situations in domestic and international markets [190][193]. Cotton - Cotton prices were in a shock - upward trend, and attention should be paid to downstream demand [195][197]. Eggs - Egg spot prices were in a shock [199]. Hogs - The market had already priced in the Winter Solstice expectation in advance, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [201][202]. Peanuts - Attention should be paid to the peanut spot market, with stable prices in most regions and small - scale price fluctuations in some areas [205][206].

广发证券资深宏观分析师 陈嘉荔 gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第九， 简单来看，美联储降息兑现构成对风险资产的利好，对其明年经济的基准乐观情形亦有利于盈利支 撑；美元指数延续 11 月最后一周以来的调整亦有利于非美资产。但美联储高增长低通胀的核心假设具有不 确定性，如果后续通胀约束其降息，则美元反弹将带来扰动 。 正文 第一， 美联储 12 月 9-10 日举行议息会议 ， FOMC 官员投票下调联邦基金利率 25bp 至 3.5%-3.75% ，这是自 2025 年 9 月重启降息后的第三次降息。堪萨斯城联储主席施密德（ Schmid ）、芝加哥联储主 席古尔斯比（ Goolsbee ）倾向于不降息，而理事米兰则倾向于在此次会议上降息 50 个基点。本次议息会 议降息在市场预期之内， 25bp 也属于基准预期情形，相对更为重要的信息是：（ 1 ）美联储点阵图对 2026 年政策路径和经济走势的指引；（ 2 ）美联储对就业市场和通胀的评估。 第二， 12 月点阵图（ dot plot ）显示 2026 年和 2027 年各再降 25bp （和 9 月一致）。经济预测（ S ...

据路透社12月10日报道，美联储当天公开宣布降息25个基点，与市场此前的普遍预测相符。但此次降息也暴露出 美联储内部在该问题上的立场分歧，有三名理事对降息25个基点投了反对票。此外，美联储还表示短期内不会进 一步下调借贷成本，因为美国就业市场的走向目前尚不明朗，通胀水平仍然较高，且美联储预计美国明年经济将 加速增长。 美联储主席鲍威尔在会议后的新闻发布会上表示："自今年9月以来，我们的政策利率已下调了75个基点，自去年9 月以来已下调了175个基点，目前政策利率已处于预计的中性利率区间内，我们已做好充分准备，等待观察经济如 何发展。" 美联储此前于2024年9月启动了4年多来的第一次降息，分别于当年9、11、12月降息50、25、25个基点。而在2025 年，美联储在9、10、12月也均宣布继续降息25个基点。 而在回应目前美国的物价问题时，鲍威尔表示当前美国的通货膨胀率已经超过了美联储2%的目标，而这主要是由 于美国总统特朗普提高了进口关税。 在谈及就业市场时，美联储在一份声明中表示"今年就业增长放缓，9月份失业率略有上升"。市场注意到美联储删 除了之前失业率"较低"的说法。 值得注意的是，此次美联储降息的 ...

北京时间12月11日凌晨，美联储宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.5%至3.75%，符 合市场预期。 美联储同时宣布，将启动短期国债购买计划，以此调节市场流动性水平，确保央行对自身利率目标体系 保持稳定控制。 美联储在季度经济展望中上修经济预测，通胀预测小幅下修，就业市场基本稳定，备受关注的点阵图预 测明年或仅降息1次，与9月一致。美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，目前联邦基金利率已处于中 性利率的大致预估区间内，完全有条件静观经济走势的变化。货币政策并非遵循预设路径，将在每次会 议上根据实际情况作出决策。 美联储决议声明显示，经济活动正以温和步伐扩张。今年以来，就业岗位增长有所放缓，失业率截至9 月已小幅上升。近期公布的更多指标也与上述趋势相符。通胀水平自年初以来有所抬头，目前仍处于偏 高区间。 美联储去年9月开启降息周期，今年已累计降息175个基点。不过其他国家和地区央行并未跟进美联储降 息步伐，周三晚间，加拿大央行就将关键政策利率维持在2.25%不变。加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆表示， 加拿大整体经济仍展现出显著韧性。尽管美国对汽车、木材、铝和钢等关键行业征收25%至50%的关 税，加拿大 ...

美东时间12月10日， 美联储在今年的最后一次议息会议上，再度降息25 个基点将联邦基金利 率区间降至3.5%—3.75%，这是2025年的第三次降息，同时也为明年的降息预期定下基调。 降息当天，美股三大主要股指集体收高，纳斯达克综合指数上涨78点，标普500指数上涨46 点，道琼斯工业指数上涨497点，涨幅超过1%。【 详情 】 就业走弱与顽固通胀 使政策博弈更复杂 不同于以往的"整齐划一"，此次决策出现罕见的"三向分裂"：堪萨斯城联储主席施密德与芝加 哥联储主席古尔斯比坚持应"按兵不动"，而理事米然则主张直接一口气降息50个基点。这是自 2019年以来，联邦公开市场委员会首次出现三名委员同时反对政策行动。 这背后反映的是，经济信号变得比以往更模糊、更具争议。就业市场虽仍具韧性，但走弱迹象 已经难以忽视——鲍威尔公开指出，近期就业数据可能被"系统性高估"，真实的就业增长动能 或远弱于统计数字。与此同时，通胀依然顽固地高于目标区间大约一个百分点，而关税效应正 在推升商品通胀，使货币政策面临比想象更复杂的权衡。 鲍威尔在发布会上将当前局势形容为"一道难题"。他强调，委员会内部对通胀过高与劳动力市 场趋弱的判断几 ...

数据来源:美联储 美联储12月宣布降息25个基点,将联邦基金利率 目标区间降至3.50%-3.75%,符合市场"鹰派降 息"预期。 这是美联储2025年年内第三次降息,也是继今 年9月以来连续第三次降息,全年的累计降息幅 度就此达到75个基点。今年前八个月,该行一直 按兵不动,以等待评估关税及其他政策调整对 经济的影响。 0 2 美联储决议声明变动 要动同 雙动前 今年就业增长放 经济方面 今年就业增长放 | 变动前 | | 变动后 | | --- | --- | --- | | 今年就业增长放 经济方面 | | 今年就业增长放 | | 缓,失业率略有 | | 缓,失业率截至9 | | 上升,但截至 8 | | 月有所上升。 | | 月份仍保持在较 | | | | 低水平。 | | | | 委员会决定将联 | 决议方面 | 委员会决定将联 | | 邦基金利率目标 | | 邦基金利率目标 | | 区间下调 0.25 个 | | 区间下调 0.25 个 | | 百分点至 3.75% | | 百分点至 3.50% | | 至4%。 | | 至 3.75%。 | | 在考虑对联邦基 | | 在考虑对联邦基 | | 金 ...

美东时间12月10日，美联储在今年的最后一次议息会议上，再度降息25 个基点将联邦基金利率区间降 至 3.5%—3.75%，这是 2025 年的第三次降息，同时也为明年的降息预期定下基调。降息当天，美股三 大主要股指集体收高，纳斯达克综合指数上涨78点，标普500指数上涨46点，道琼斯工业指数上涨497 点，涨幅超过1%。 不同于以往的"整齐划一"，此次决策出现罕见的"三向分裂"：堪萨斯城联储主席施密德与芝加哥联储主 席古尔斯比坚持应"按兵不动"，而理事米然则主张直接一口气降息 50 个基点。这是自 2019 年以来，联 邦公开市场委员会首次出现三名委员同时反对政策行动。 这背后反映的是，经济信号变得比以往更模糊、更具争议。就业市场虽仍具韧性，但走弱迹象已经难以 忽视——鲍威尔公开指出，近期就业数据可能被"系统性高估"，真实的就业增长动能或远弱于统计数 字。与此同时，通胀依然顽固地高于目标区间大约一个百分点，而关税效应正在推升商品通胀，使货币 政策面临比想象更复杂的权衡。 鲍威尔在发布会上将当前局势形容为"一道难题"。他强调，委员会内部对通胀过高与劳动力市场趋弱的 判断几乎完全一致，但在"风险平衡"上的理解却 ...