Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 铁矿: 【行情复盘】 周二铁矿夜盘收涨。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、国家发改委有关负责人介绍，将研究制定出台 2026 年—2030 年扩大内需战略实 | | | | | 施方案；要实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，把促进物价回升作为 | | | | | 货币政策的重要考量；依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，破解内卷竞争。 | | | | | 2、力拓（Rio Tinto）发布四季度产销报告：四季度皮尔巴拉业务铁矿石产量为 8970 | | 黑色建材 | 铁矿 | 偏多 | 万吨，环比增加 6.66%，同比增加 3.70%。四季度皮尔巴拉业务铁矿石发运量为 9130 | | | | | 万吨，环比增加 8.30%，同比增加 6.53%。 | | | | | 3、 1 月 12 日-1 月 18 日，澳大利亚、巴西七个主要港口 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 21 日星期三 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | | | --- | --- | | 品种 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周二螺纹热卷夜盘收跌。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、国家发改委有关负责人介绍，将研究制定出台 2026 年—2030 年扩大内需战略实 | | | | | 施方案；要实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，把促进物价回升作为 | | | | | 货币政策的重要考量；依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，破解内卷竞争。 | | | | | 2、财政部有关负责人介绍，2026 年财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量将保持必要 | | | | | 水平，确保总体支出力度"只增不减"、重点领域保障"只强不弱" ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black (coking coal and coke) sector is "oscillating weakly" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The double - coking (coking coal and coke) market is expected to be in a short - term weak trend. The market accelerated its decline yesterday, and the downward trend slowed down during the night session. The safety accident at Baotou Steel led to potential steel mill safety inspections, which may cause a decline in pig iron production, and the long - awaited first round of coke price increase has not been implemented, resulting in short - position additions in the double - coking market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2605 closed at 1124.0, a 4.3% decline compared to the opening of the day session; the main coke contract J2605 closed at 1673.5, a 2.76% decline compared to the opening of the day session. During the night session, the main coking coal contract closed at 1113.0, a 0.98% decline compared to the close of the day session, and the main coke contract closed at 1671.0, a 0.15% decline compared to the close of the day session [1] Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission will study and formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 - 2030, implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and take promoting price recovery as an important consideration for monetary policy, and regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations [1] - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development issued a notice on measures to support urban renewal, proposing a transitional policy for using existing land and real estate resources to develop supported industries without changing the land - use subject and planning conditions within a certain period [1] - As of the time of the report, the explosion accident at Baotou Steel's plate factory in Inner Mongolia has caused 9 deaths, and the status of 1 missing person is being further confirmed [1] - On January 20, the online auction price of coking coal in the Changzhi Qinyuan market increased. The starting price of low - sulfur lean primary coking coal was 1500 yuan/ton, the average transaction price was 1598 yuan/ton, with a transaction volume of 30,000 tons, a 19 - yuan increase compared to January 13 [1] Market Logic - The double - coking market accelerated its decline yesterday. The safety accident at Baotou Steel led to potential steel mill safety inspections, which may cause a decline in pig iron production, and the long - awaited first round of coke price increase has not been implemented, resulting in short - position additions in the double - coking market [1] Trading Strategy - The double - coking market accelerated its decline before the close of the day session yesterday, and the downward trend slowed down during the night session. Coking coal is expected to show a short - term weak trend [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "Bullish (Slightly)" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, treasury bond futures' main contracts generally rose, while the stock market pulled back. Due to factors such as China's GDP growth in 2025, fiscal and monetary policies, and international market uncertainties, treasury bond futures may fluctuate with a slight bullish trend in the short - term. Traders are advised to conduct band operations. [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Tuesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened roughly flat and rose unilaterally throughout the day. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 rose 0.52%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.13%, the 5 - year TF2603 rose 0.09%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rose 0.05%. [1] - On Tuesday, the Wande All - A index opened slightly higher, declined in the morning to reach the day's low, and then fluctuated horizontally, closing down 0.58% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 2.80 trillion yuan, a slight increase from the previous day's 2.73 trillion yuan. [3] 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market**: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 324 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 358.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 34.6 billion yuan. The latest LPR announced on Tuesday remained stable for the eighth consecutive month. [1] - **Funding Market**: On Tuesday, short - term interest rates in the inter - bank funding market rose. DR001's weighted average for the day was 1.37%, compared with 1.32% in the previous trading day; DR007's weighted average for the day was 1.50%, compared with 1.48% in the previous trading day. [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds mostly declined compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of the 2 - year treasury bond declined 1.23 basis points to 1.39%, the 5 - year declined 0.74 basis points to 1.60%, the 10 - year declined 0.67 basis points to 1.83%, and the 30 - year declined 0.66 basis points to 2.34%. [1] - **Fiscal Policy**: In 2025, the Ministry of Finance allocated ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds to support about 8,400 projects, driving total investment of over 1 trillion yuan, supporting a 11.8% year - on - year increase in equipment and instrument purchases and investment, and boosting overall investment by 1.8 percentage points. In 2025, China's fiscal deficit ratio was about 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year; the new government debt scale was 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year. In 2026, the fiscal department will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy. [1] - **Policy Documents**: On January 20, the Ministry of Finance issued five consecutive documents on consumer loans, private investment, etc. Multiple departments jointly implemented or optimized loan interest subsidy policies for small and medium - sized enterprises, service providers, equipment updates, and personal consumption, as well as a special guarantee plan for private investment. [1][2] - **National Development and Reform Commission's Announcement**: On January 20, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that it will research and formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, study the establishment of a national - level merger and acquisition fund, strengthen government investment and fund layout planning, and take other measures. [2] 3.3 Market Logic - In 2025, China's GDP was 1,401,879 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. In the fourth quarter, China's GDP increased 1.2% quarter - on - quarter. In December, fixed - asset investment growth and total retail sales of consumer goods were lower than market expectations, while export growth and the actual year - on - year growth of industrial added value above a designated size exceeded market expectations. The service production index in December increased 0.8 percentage points year - on - year compared with November. [3] - In December last year and the first ten - day period of January this year, domestic real estate sales and housing prices continued to decline year - on - year. [3] - The central bank announced a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the rediscount rate and relending rate starting from January 19, 2026, and indicated that there is still room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts throughout the year. The Ministry of Finance stated on January 20 that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at necessary levels. [1][3] - Recently, the ongoing disputes between the US and Europe over Greenland, the shadow of the EU - US trade war, and the Japanese bond storm have dampened global investors' risk appetite, leading to a decline in overnight US stocks and the US dollar index. [3] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations. [4]

国家发展改革委资源节约和环境保护司司长王善成：进一步降低申报项目投资门槛，加大对中小企 业支持力度，扩大政策惠及面。合理把握工作节奏，按季度分批次下达中央资金，督促地方建立补贴资 金预拨制度，解决资金拖欠问题，缓解企业垫资压力。 面对"供强需弱"等复杂局面，"十五五"开局如何用好改革"关键一招"，形成政策与改革的强大合 力？ 国家发展改革委体制改革综合司司长王任飞：消费方面，要从放宽准入、优化监管等入手，建立健 全适应消费新业态、新模式、新场景的管理办法。投资方面，要把"投资于物"和"投资于人"紧密结合起 来，增强市场主导的有效投资增长动力。 央广网北京1月21日消息（记者周尧）据中央广播电视总台中国之声《新闻和报纸摘要》报道，国 新办1月20日举行新闻发布会，国家发展改革委相关负责人表示，我国将坚持政策支持和改革创新并 举，推动"十五五"开好局、起好步。 国家发展改革委副主任王昌林表示，2026年宏观政策将坚持把发力点放在做强国内大循环上，研究 制定出台2026—2030年扩大内需战略实施方案。 目前，2026年"两新"政策安排已经发布。 ...

全年经济总量迈上140万亿元新台阶、制造业增加值连续16年位居全球第一、年末常住人口城镇化率比 上年提高0.89个百分点……2025年，我国交出一份高质量的发展答卷。 新的一年，如何落实中央经济工作会议精神，推动"十五五"实现良好开局？国务院新闻办公室20日举行 新闻发布会，国家发展改革委相关负责人回答记者提问。 充分挖掘中国经济潜能 "经济社会发展主要目标顺利完成，经济运行稳中有进，发展韧性进一步彰显，民生政策更有温度，交 出了一份高质量答卷。"在总结过去一年经济发展成果时，国家发展改革委副主任王昌林这样概括。 "展望2026年，我们认为消费与投资、科技与产业、城乡与区域都将释放出巨大的发展潜能。"国家发展 改革委国民经济综合司司长周陈说。 从点上看，新技术新产品新场景蔚然成势。周陈表示，我国新能源、新材料、航空航天等新的经济增长 点正在蓄势待发。"目前我们正在谋划推进一批'十五五'时期的高技术产业标志性引领性重大工程。"周 陈说。 从线上看，创新链产业链人才链加速融合。周陈介绍，我国有完整的产业体系和超大规模市场，也有全 球规模最宏大、门类最齐全的人才资源，具备了将创新成果从"书架"推上"货架"的全链条全 ...

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to implement a strategy to expand domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, addressing the current issue of weak demand in the economy [2][50] - The NDRC aims to strengthen the domestic circulation of the economy and enhance the resilience of economic operations by 2025 [2][50] - The NDRC is also working on policies to promote consumption, stabilize investment, and cultivate emerging industries as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [58] Group 2 - Six departments, including the Ministry of Finance, have extended tax and fee incentives for the elderly care, childcare, and domestic service sectors until December 31, 2027, to support the development of community family services [3][51] - The tax incentives were first introduced in June 2019 and have been viewed as a significant support measure for the industry [3][51] Group 3 - The semiconductor company Nexperia is currently involved in a control dispute, with a court hearing held in Amsterdam regarding its management and ownership [16][64] - The dispute involves Nexperia's temporary European management and its sole shareholder, Wingtech Technology from China, following a government order that temporarily froze the company's operations [16][64] Group 4 - The stock market has experienced significant volatility, with major indices like the Dow Jones dropping over 870 points due to new tariff threats from the U.S. [10][59] - Nvidia's market value decreased by approximately $195.6 billion (around 1361.7 billion RMB) in a single day, reflecting the broader impact on technology stocks [11][60] Group 5 - Several companies are reporting substantial profit increases for 2025, with notable projections including: - Langzi Co., Ltd. expecting a net profit increase of 245.25% to 302.8% [69] - Zhaoyan New Drug forecasting a net profit increase of 214% to 371% [70] - Huachen Equipment projecting a net profit increase of 193.64% to 242.04% [71] - Other companies like Qianyuan Power and Jin Fang Energy are also expecting significant profit growth, with projections of 160% to 190% and 123.97% to 193.7% respectively [72][73]

Group 1: Government Policies and Economic Measures - The Ministry of Finance announced multiple policies to enhance personal consumption loan interest subsidies and implement a special guarantee plan for private investment [1] - The fiscal deficit, total debt, and overall expenditure will maintain necessary levels through 2026, ensuring that overall expenditure "only increases" and key areas are "only strengthened" [1][2] - A tax and fee exemption policy for community service industries, including elderly care and childcare, will be effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [2] Group 2: Company News and Financial Performance - Hikvision reported a revenue of 92.518 billion yuan for 2025, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.02%, while net profit grew by 18.46% to 14.188 billion yuan [5] - Tongfu Microelectronics expects a net profit of 1.1 billion to 1.35 billion yuan for 2025, representing a growth of 62.34% to 99.24% year-on-year [5] - Puxin Technology anticipates a net profit of 2.3 billion to 2.4 billion yuan for 2025, marking a growth of 93.18% to 101.58% year-on-year [5] - Aifan Transmission plans to acquire 87.07% of Beijing Heli Technology Co., which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring [6][7] - Aifan Transmission's acquisition is expected to enhance its overall strength and improve business performance [7] Group 3: Clinical and Pharmaceutical Developments - Baili Tianheng received approval for its innovative drug application for a dual-target antibody ADC for treating recurrent or metastatic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, marking a significant milestone in clinical development [8] - Aibo Medical plans to acquire at least 51% of Demai Medical, a high-tech enterprise, to expand into the sports health sector [9][10] Group 4: Market and Investment Insights - CITIC Securities reports that the recent pullback in the securities sector does not indicate the end of the market rally, suggesting potential upward paths for the sector [11]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on January 20, with a fixed rate and a total of 324 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40%. The total bid and awarded amount was 324 billion yuan, while 358.6 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 34.6 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market funding conditions remained stable, with the D R001 weighted average interest rate rising over 5 basis points to around 1.37%. Overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system maintained at 1.30%, with supply exceeding 100 billion yuan. Non-bank institutions' overnight borrowing rates for pledged credit bonds were around 1.49%, slightly higher than the previous day. Traders noted that the upcoming tax period caused a slight increase in funding prices, but overall liquidity remained loose [3]. Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks was around 1.62%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [7]. Group 4: Bond Market Overview - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market saw a general decline in yields. The 30-year main contract for government bonds rose by 0.52%, the 10-year by 0.13%, the 5-year by 0.09%, and the 2-year by 0.05% [11]. Group 5: Fiscal Policy Insights - The Vice Minister of Finance, Liao Min, stated that in 2026, the fiscal department will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on increasing total volume, optimizing structure, improving efficiency, and enhancing momentum. The fiscal deficit and total debt will maintain necessary levels, ensuring that overall spending intensity will "only increase" and key areas will be "stronger" [12]. - The National Development and Reform Commission's Deputy Director, Wang Changlin, indicated that the current economic operation faces a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The focus will be on strengthening domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand, with plans to develop a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [12]. Group 6: Tax Policies - The Ministry of Finance and other departments announced the continuation of tax and fee preferential policies for community family services such as elderly care, childcare, and housekeeping, effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [13]. Group 7: LPR Rates - The latest LPR quotes remained unchanged, with the one-year LPR at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50%, maintaining stability for eight consecutive months since a decrease in May 2025 [13].

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 特朗普举行重返白宫一周年记者会 欧洲议会冻结美欧贸易协议批准程序 波兰央行批准购买150吨黄金的计划 国家发改委：将研究制定出台2026年—2030年扩大内需战略实施方案 市场盘点 周二，白宫就格陵兰岛的未来向欧洲发出威胁，再度引发"抛售美国"交易，美元指数最终收跌0.49%，报98.56；基准的10年期美债收益率最终收报 4.3000%，对美联储政策利率敏感的2年期美债收益率收报3.6050%。 特朗普威胁要对欧洲盟友征收额外关税，引发对避险资产的抢购，现货黄金首次突破4760美元，最终收涨1.82%，报4763.25美元/盎司；现货白银刷新新高 至95.86美元，最终收涨0.25%，报94.60美元/盎司。 因哈萨克斯坦油田暂时停产，以及全球经济增长更加强劲的预期可能推动燃料需求，WTI原油最终收涨0.17%，报59.5美元/桶；布伦特原油低开高走，最终 收跌0.13%，报63.55美元/桶。 欧洲主要股指全线收跌，英国富时100指数收跌0.67%；德国DA ...