Report Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Range-bound trading [1] - Alumina: Bottom rebound [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Views - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including futures and spot market prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, and inventory levels [1]. - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all neutral [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 21,360 yuan, up 135 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 311,269 lots, and the open interest was 311,269 lots [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,829 yuan, up 19 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 278,561 lots, and the open interest was 372,484 lots [1]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,715 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 6,715 lots, and the open interest was 6,366 lots [1]. Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,879 dollars. The LME注销仓单占比 was 13.77%, down 0.50% from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum cash - 3M spread was 3.19 dollars [1]. - **Alumina**: The alumina average price in China was 2,914 yuan, down 7 yuan from the previous trading day. The alumina CIF price at Lianyungang was 344 dollars [1]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The price of Baotai ADC12 was 20,700 yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day. The三地库存合计 was 48,375 tons, down 237 tons from the previous trading day [1]. Other Information - **Trade Agreement**: The US has reached trade agreements with several Southeast Asian countries. Southeast Asian countries will lower tariffs on US cars and agricultural products and promise to purchase Boeing aircraft, while the US will exempt tariffs on some goods from these countries. However, subsequent negotiations will determine whether key export industries can get tariff exemptions [3]. - **Financial Policy**: Li Yunze said that efforts will be made to strengthen the supply of funds for major projects and promote the expansion and upgrading of consumption, and a new financial service model will be built [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the strategic decision made by the Central Committee, led by Xi Jinping, to accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, which is crucial for maintaining China's development initiative [1] - The "dual circulation" development pattern was conceived in response to the changes in the global environment due to the pandemic, highlighting the need for new development strategies [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has seen significant contributions from domestic demand, with an average contribution rate of 86.4% to economic growth from 2021 to 2024 [2] Group 2 - China's goods trade volume is projected to grow from 32.2 trillion yuan in 2020 to 43.8 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting an annual growth rate of 8.0% [2] - The focus on strengthening domestic circulation is seen as essential for countering uncertainties in international circulation, with a strategic emphasis on building a robust domestic economic system [2] - The Central Committee's commitment to expanding domestic demand is aimed at enhancing the internal dynamics and reliability of the domestic circulation [3] Group 3 - The importance of a strong domestic market is highlighted as a strategic foundation for China's modernization, supported by a well-developed industrial and infrastructure system [3] - The plan includes promoting urbanization, rural revitalization, and improving living standards to stimulate investment and consumption [3] - The Central Committee's deployment for expanding high-level opening-up reflects China's confidence in open cooperation and mutual benefits, with a 4% year-on-year increase in goods trade in the first three quarters of the year [4] Group 4 - Despite challenges from unilateralism and protectionism, the commitment to high-level opening-up and the Belt and Road Initiative aims to enhance the efficiency of domestic and international market interactions [4] - Historical resilience against external risks has been a key factor in China's ability to navigate challenges, emphasizing the importance of focusing on domestic development [4]

Core Viewpoint - The head of the National Financial Supervision Administration, Li Yunze, emphasized the importance of enhancing major project funding to support the expansion and upgrading of consumption, aligning with the strategy to boost domestic demand [1]. Group 1 - The National Financial Supervision Administration is focusing on strategies to expand domestic demand [1]. - There is a commitment to strengthen funding for major projects [1]. - The initiative aims to promote the expansion and upgrading of consumer spending [1].

Core Viewpoint - The head of the National Financial Supervision Administration, Li Yunze, emphasized the importance of expanding domestic demand strategies and enhancing funding supply for major projects to boost consumption upgrades [1] Group 1 - The focus is on strengthening the funding supply for significant projects [1] - The initiative aims to promote the expansion and upgrading of consumption [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the construction of a strong domestic market and the acceleration of a new development pattern, focusing on expanding domestic demand and enhancing the interaction between consumption and investment [1][3]. Group 1: Strong Domestic Market - The market is identified as a scarce resource, with China's large-scale market being a significant advantage. The resilience of the domestic market is highlighted in the face of complex external environments, with domestic demand contributing an average of 86.8% to economic growth from 2021 to 2024 [3]. - The emphasis on expanding domestic demand is seen as a strategic foundation for establishing a new development pattern that promotes both domestic and international circulation [3]. - The document stresses the importance of the domestic market, which covers over 1.4 billion people, aiming to enhance China's role as a significant consumer market globally [3][4]. Group 2: Investment in Goods and People - The 2025 Government Work Report advocates for increased investment in human capital and services to improve livelihoods, support employment, and stimulate consumption, creating a virtuous cycle of economic development and social improvement [5]. - The combination of investment in tangible assets and human capital is emphasized as essential for sustainable growth, with a call for a balanced approach to enhance skills and participation in the economic cycle [6]. - The need for policies that support human capital investment is highlighted, covering areas such as healthcare, education, and social security, in response to the demands of the new industrial and technological revolution [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the construction of a strong domestic market and the acceleration of a new development pattern, focusing on expanding domestic demand and enhancing the interaction between consumption and investment [1][3]. Group 1: Strong Domestic Market - The market is identified as a scarce resource, with China's large-scale market being a significant advantage, showcasing resilience amid complex external environments. From 2021 to 2024, domestic demand is expected to contribute an average of 86.8% to economic growth [3]. - The emphasis on expanding domestic demand is seen as a strategic foundation for establishing a new development pattern that prioritizes domestic circulation while promoting international circulation [3]. - The document highlights the importance of the domestic market, which covers over 1.4 billion people, aiming to enhance China's role as a significant consumer market globally [3]. Group 2: Investment in Goods and People - The 2025 Government Work Report calls for more resources to be invested in human capital and public services, supporting employment, income growth, and consumption incentives to create a virtuous cycle of economic development and improved livelihoods [5]. - The combination of investment in goods and people is emphasized as essential, with a focus on not only tangible assets but also on human capital to meet the demands of the new industrial and technological revolution [5][6]. - Investment in human capital is increasingly recognized as crucial for economic growth, with a broad definition that includes healthcare, sports, talent development, and social security, indicating a need for more policies in this area over the next five years [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the construction of a strong domestic market and the acceleration of a new development pattern, focusing on expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation [1][2]. Group 1: Strong Domestic Market - The report highlights the importance of a strong domestic market, which is seen as a significant resource and advantage for China, especially in the face of complex external environments [1][2]. - From 2021 to 2024, domestic demand is expected to contribute an average of 86.8% to economic growth, indicating the critical role of domestic consumption [1]. Group 2: Investment in People and Goods - The emphasis on combining investment in goods and investment in people is crucial for sustainable economic growth, as it addresses both tangible assets and human capital [5][6]. - Investment in human capital is increasingly recognized as vital for economic growth, with a focus on skills enhancement and participation in the economic cycle [6]. Group 3: Interaction of Supply and Demand - The report advocates for a positive interaction between new demand and new supply, moving beyond previous supply-side reforms to address current insufficient effective demand [4]. - The simultaneous push for boosting consumption and expanding effective investment is essential for enhancing the internal dynamics of the domestic economy [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of China's "14th Five-Year Plan" in navigating complex internal and external environments, focusing on self-reliance and innovation to achieve modernization and economic growth [1][2][3]. Economic Growth and Contributions - During the "14th Five-Year" period, China's GDP surpassed 130 trillion yuan, with an average growth rate of 5.5% over the first four years, contributing approximately 30% to global economic growth [2]. - The total economic output is projected to approach 140 trillion yuan, with an expected increase of over 35 trillion yuan during this period [3]. Technological Innovation - The plan highlights the core role of innovation in modernization, with R&D expenditure expected to grow nearly 50% by 2024 compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year" period [5]. - High-tech manufacturing value added is projected to increase by 42% by 2024 compared to the end of the previous plan [3]. Domestic Market Development - The average contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth is expected to reach 86.8% from 2021 to 2024, with final consumption contributing nearly 60% [6]. - The establishment of a unified national market is being accelerated, with strategic plans to enhance consumption and stabilize investment [6]. Reform and Opening Up - The "14th Five-Year" plan prioritizes deepening reform and opening up as key principles for economic and social development [7]. - Significant reforms have been initiated, including the implementation of the new market access negative list and the promotion of the private economy [9]. Future Outlook - The upcoming "15th Five-Year" plan is set to continue the trajectory of self-reliance and innovation, positioning China to make greater contributions to global development [10].

110万亿元、120万亿元、130万亿元……"十四五"期间，我国坚持稳中求进工作总基调，经济总量连续跨越新关口。2025年，中国经济总量预计约140万亿 元。习近平总书记曾多次指出，中国经济具有"基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大"的特点，强调要坚持以推动高质量发展为主题，推动经济实现质的有效 提升和量的合理增长，为我们持续做好经济工作指明方向。 今年是"十四五"规划收官之年，也是"十五五"规划谋篇布局之年。我们要继续锚定奋斗目标，坚定信心、砥砺前行，努力把各方面积极因素转化为发展实 绩，书写经济高质量发展新篇章。 2022年10月16日,习近平在中国共产党第二十次全国 代表大会上的报告 2021-2024年,内需对我国经济增长平均贡献率 达86.8%;其中,最终消费支出平均贡献率为 59.9%，比"十三五"时期提高11.1个百分点。投 资对优化供给结构的关键性作用持续发挥, 2021 -2024年高技术产业投资年均增长13.5%,明显 快于整体投资增速。 要完善国家创新体系,激发各类创新主体 活力,瞄准世界科技前沿,在加强基础研 究、提高原始创新能力上持续用力,在突破 关键核心技术、前沿技术上抓紧攻关。 -20 ...

Core Insights - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's GDP has successively crossed the thresholds of 110 trillion yuan, 120 trillion yuan, and 130 trillion yuan, with an expected GDP of approximately 140 trillion yuan by 2025 [1][3] - The focus is on promoting high-quality development, emphasizing effective qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth in the economy [1][6] Economic Growth - By 2024, China's GDP is projected to exceed 134 trillion yuan, representing a 23.9% increase from 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5% [3] - The economic increment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan [3] Domestic Demand and Investment - From 2021 to 2024, domestic demand is projected to contribute an average of 86.8% to economic growth, with final consumption expenditure contributing 59.9%, an increase of 11.1 percentage points compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [7] - High-tech industry investment is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 13.5% from 2021 to 2024, significantly outpacing overall investment growth [7] Innovation and R&D - By 2024, total R&D expenditure is expected to exceed 3.6 trillion yuan, maintaining China's position as the second-largest in the world [11] - By 2025, China aims to rank 10th in the global innovation index, improving by four positions since 2020, and leading in the number of top 100 innovation clusters globally [11] Market Development - The construction of a unified national market is essential for building a new development pattern and enhancing international competitiveness [14] - By 2024, the ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP is expected to decrease to 14.1%, with market-based electricity transactions accounting for 63% of total electricity consumption [16] International Trade - China has become a major trading partner for over 150 countries and regions, with the proportion of trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries rising from 29.1% in 2020 to 50.3% in 2024 [20] - The China-Europe Railway Express has reached 26 countries and over 200 cities in Europe, with a cumulative operation exceeding 110,000 trains [20] Manufacturing Sector - From 2021 to 2024, the actual growth rate of manufacturing value-added is expected to average 5.4%, maintaining a global share close to 30% and ranking first in the world for 15 consecutive years [26] - The proportion of equipment manufacturing in total industrial value-added is projected to increase from 33.7% in 2020 to 34.6% in 2024 [26]